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By: Psychobabble, PB
Apr 09 2014 1:05pm
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When I last checked in on the THS block constructed format a couple of weeks ago, the metagame was still relatively unsettled and open. Around that same time, I started testing the deck that's the subject of today's column - GBw dredge - and started winning in 2 player queue matches. A lot. I thought to myself that there was something wrong here, this felt like the clear best deck in the format as it only seemed to lose outside of the mirror when it had mana issues. Well, in the two weeks since then it seems that the metagame has caught up and we now have a clearly dominant deck in the post-BNG block format for the first time. Read on for my overview of the metagame and analysis of what I'm fairly sure is the best deck in the format.

Metagame statistics

As I had a week off from the column, this week's statistics includes two weeks worth of data. I note that attendance remained close to its peak in the first week covered by these numbers, but dropped off a fair bit in the second week. I expect that trend to continue up until the release of the next set, at which point the cycle will start again.

A few comments:

  • GBw dredge is now the clear top dog of the format, and I expect that trend to solidify in the coming weeks. The fact that this data is aggregated over two weeks obscures the rapid rise of the deck - it accounted for very close to 40% of the metagame in the second week. I'll discuss this deck in more detail today, but given the lack of graveyard interaction in the format so far, I'm somewhat concerned that this is an irreversible, and possibly accelerating, trend.
  • Esper control is still hanging in there. I don't know why it continues to be so popular in a format dominated by one of its worst matchups, I can't help but feel a lot of the Esper players must just be hoping to dodge the dredge decks so they can prey on everyone else and/or just get lucky.
  • Mono B is holding up the aggro side of things, but I still can't really understand why the deck remains so popular as it feels like it has basically no good matchups. Courser of Kruphix is such a beating, and the dredge and naya decks are playing 4x plus it basically auto-loses to Esper. Heroic aggro seems a much more promising angle, although the most common version plays is the BW version which doesn't do all that well against dredge (it relies a lot on (Agent of Fates) which doesn't match up well against Satyr Wayfinder). I remain puzzled by the relative lack of UW heroic in the format.
  • There's a flyer-heavy mono red deck starting to pick up a little steam, which is a very interesting idea, as it's a good way for the red decks to get around Courser.
  • GR/Naya still has its supporters, but is fast losing steam, with its worst overall showing to date - only 3 Naya decks placed in the second reported week here.

There's a few rogue decks that have placed in the past couple of weeks, including mono U and mono G devotion lists, but I thought I'd highlight an interesting mono red build that's been floating around the fringes but placed a good half dozen times in the past fortnight. What I like about this is the emphasis on flyers, which are very well positioned at the moment given how heavily the dredge deck leans on Courser of Kruphix for early game defence against aggro. Combined with a large burn package and lots of haste, this looks like it has the ability to close out a game before the more powerful engine decks can get running. Its biggest weakness looks like an active Whip of Erebos, I'm not sure you can close the game out reliably before they untap with it, and if it's able to reanimate something big for a lifegain hit you probably have difficulty closing the game out. It may be correct to board in Peak Eruption for the dredge deck to keep them off large amounts of mana, I'm not sure though.

 

Mono red burn/aggro
_megafone_ (3-1) THS Block Constructed Daily on 04/06/2014
Creatures
4 Everflame Eidolon
4 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Flame-Wreathed Phoenix
4 Impetuous Sunchaser
4 Minotaur Skullcleaver
4 Stormbreath Dragon
24 cards

Other Spells
4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
4 Searing Blood
12 cards
Lands
0 cards

Flame-Wreathed Phoenix

 

GBw dredge

Many moons ago, I wrote an article about the reasons why a competitive player/spike might choose to play a rogue deck even if it wasn't the best in the format. One such reason, fairly obviously, is that you stand a chance of discovering a new deck type which could dominate the format either through more concerted brewing or as more cards are added to the relevant format's card pool. Interestingly enough, the first deck I mentioned in that article was a GB dredge deck built around reanimating Ashen Rider, Abhorrent Overlord and other creatures with strong ETB abilities. My conclusion was that while the deck was capable of doing literally the most powerful things in the format, it suffered from a lack of consistency in part because Commune with the Gods was not able to dig you into more lands (unlike similar versions such as Mulch). Well, with the addition of the innocuous-looking Satyr Wayfinder to the format, that deck got its Mulch and while people took a couple of weeks to wake up to its power, it's slowly but surely been taking over the format. Here's where the juggernaut has arrived at today, a version piloted by one of the better block players going around xMiMx who has been crushing with the deck over the past few weeks:

 

 

I'm going to begin with the conclusion here - this is the best deck in the format right now, and I expect it to remain so until the end of the THS/BNG phase of the block format. You need to have a very good reason for not playing this deck right now and if you are of the brewing persuasion, you should be putting your efforts into figuring out how to attack this deck - it will only get more popular.

I guess I should take a step back and explain myself a bit though. First of all, the fundamental factor which gives this deck its power is that it has the most powerful late game of any deck in the format. Ashen Rider is the most powerful creature in block, period (yes, even stronger than Chromanticore on account of it (a) not dying to EVERYTHING and (b) giving you huge value even if it is removed). And this deck not only has a multitude of ways to cheat it into play, it has a reasonable chance of actually getting to the point where it can hard cast it. The reason for that is the second key to the deck's power - its velocity. The deck has a number of cards which churn through your deck - Satyr Wayfinder, Courser of Kruphix, Commune with the Gods and even Reaper of the Wilds triggers - and a large amount of ramp and card selection (from scrylands) to go along with that. This velocity is the hidden key to the deck's power, it drastically enhances the consistency of its strategy, allowing you to find the right tools for the job at the right time, and also helping you overcome the deck's biggest weakness which is its mana requirements (both from a colour perspective and because it doesn't tend to do much without hitting 5+ mana).

I've noted in my metagame summaries over the past few weeks that this deck has been developing that there's been a tension in the lists between focusing on reanimation/graveyard and playing more of a junk/midrange/value strategy. This tension has played out in two ways. First is whether the deck plays graveyard synergy creatures like Nighthowler and Nemesis of Mortals, or more midrangey creatures like Courser of Kruphix or Reaper of the Wilds. The second is whether the top end of the deck focuses more on reanimation, with a full playset of Rescue from the Underworld or whether it uses Elspeth, Sun's Champion as a more independently powerful card. The debate, such as it is, is now virtually over and the overwhelming consensus is that the deck does better when the graveyard strategies are a part of the deck not the key to the deck. This means more midrange creatures that have value on their own, and a top end that doesn't rely on your graveyard being filled. That's an interesting contrast to the Standard-format GB dredge deck going around at the moment, which is much more heavily focused on setting up that 5/5 for GG. The key difference is that thanks to Grisly Salvage, the standard version has three graveyard enablers while the two available here aren't quite enough to let you rely too heavily on the graveyard (Shadowborn Demon also gives the standard deck a huge additional payoff for filling the graveyard up, whereas all you get here is big dudes). if you're looking for a standard version of this list to play, I strongly recommend the version above, it's the most consistent of all the versions out there and does the most even if you draw your cards in the wrong order. I do note that the above version plays two Rescue from the Underworld, which many of the Elspeth versions (and xMiMx himself) were initially not using. Ultimately, though, I think the potential upside of the card does outweigh the added inconsistency of a card which does nothing without a good target in your graveyard. Sacrificing an Abhorrent Overlord to reanimate and Ashen Rider is simply dirty, and entirely achievable with this deck.

In addition to the deck's inherent power level - which as I said is higher than any other deck in the format, and by a significant margin - the other advantage of the deck is how difficult it is to metagame against. Graveyard decks in every constructed format are always in check by the existence of powerful hate cards. Last time WoTC made a block with a strong graveyard theme (ISD), it also printed one of the most powerful graveyard hate cards ever designed in Grafdigger's Cage. Not so here. Your options for directly interacting with this deck are depressingly thin. Psychic Intrusion is the most commonly played, and I suspect the reason some people still hold out hope that the Esper deck has some chance in the matchup. The good news is that it does come down early enough that your opponent is unlikely to have already gotten off a reanimation spell. The bad news is that it's a five mana sorcery which does nothing the turn it is cast and costs a ridiculous amount of mana to ever do anything particularly exciting. The second option is Fated Return which will quite possibly win you the game if you cast it, particularly if you do so in response to a Rescue from the Underworld. The problem is that it costs seven mana, by which time it's quite possibly too late. Your third option is..... wait. Wotc? You did give us a third option didn't you? Please tell me you didn't seed a block with a bunch of powerful graveyard synergy cards without providing appropriate answers to stop such a strategy getting out of hand. Right? *crickets*

The seeds of a format defining deck are all here. Power, resilience and consistency (interestingly enough, deck filtering/selection is something green does a whole lot better in this format than the traditional king of filtering - blue - does). All on the back of a 1/1 for 2.

How to Play it

This is a deck which places a great priority on a good opening hand. One of the key weaknesses of the deck is mana/colour screw, which comes about in part because virtually all of the powerful cards in the deck need black mana, but the mana base is forced to skew green to get its engines going (Wayfinder, Courser, Caryatid). A hand without green mana is almost always unkeepable, but you also frequently want to hit BB by turn 3 or 4. Caryatid and Wayfinder are obviously crucial to being able to pull this off, although I had a few bad whiffs with Wayfinder which ruined some games so be wary of leaning too hard on it finding your crucial third land.

Once you find yourself an opening hand, the deck is relatively linear in the early game. Generally you want to play Sylvan Caryatid out before any other two mana option, as it sets you up for a much better potential turn 3 (eg. double-enabler, Courser + land or Reaper). You do only have four maindeck removal spells, so you want to be relatively judicious in what you target with them. Do note though that accelerating into a turn 5, or even 4, Elspeth is often a huge beating, so playing Gild as primarily an acceleration spell on even a relatively low value removal target isn't as silly as it seems. Don't forget that your Satyr Wayfinders have more value in your graveyard than on the battlefield if you have a Whip around, so do what you can to get them there (suicide attacks etc). Whipping up a wayfinder to find more and better whip targets is a really nice option.

A lot of the skill with the deck comes down to sideboarding correctly, and prioritising the right spell for the matchup with your scries. Based on the above list, here's a general sideboard guide against the major matchups in the format.

Vs Mirror

In:
Gild Thoughtseize Thoughtseize Thoughtseize Unravel the Aether Unravel the Aether

Out:
Hero's Downfall Hero's Downfall Reaper of the Wilds Reaper of the Wilds Elspeth, Sun's Champion Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Leaving in Hero's downfall in the mirror (or, even worse, bringing in Dark Betrayal) is something which I see a lot of people do and which betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of this deck, which is that it's built to be good against spot removal. Gild is a necessary evil against opposing monsters, but non-exiling spot removal is actively bad here. Reaper of the Wilds doesn't do quite enough in the matchup to be important - all of the relevant threats are flying. The last two cards to remove are tough to figure out. I'm torn between Courser and Elspeth. I side towards leaving in the full set of Coursers, as its land-draw ability lets you get to your late game more reliably, and that late game is what the mirror is all about. Elspeth is nice, but doesn't actually do much against the flying threats that you care about, so isn't generally enough to be a reliable wincon.

Vs esper

In:
Thoughtseize Thoughtseize Thoughtseize Erebos, God of the Dead

Out:
Gild Gild Hero's Downfall Hero's Downfall

There is basically only one card that you care about in your opponent's deck - Prognostic Sphinx. Elspeth can be dealt with through Ashen Rider and Abhorrent Overlord (you don't need Downfall), but Thoughtseize is the only option you have for trying to stop the sphinx. Thoughtseize is also a good way around counterspells in the later game. Erebos also comes in to further stretch your opponent's Revoke Existence's which will be needed for your whip and even Courser, who is really quite good in this matchup as an early source of pressure and card advantage.

Vs Mono B aggro

In:
Dark Betrayal Dark Betrayal Dark Betrayal Dark Betrayal Hero's Downfall Hero's Downfall Elspeth, Sun's Champion Reaper of the Wilds

Out:
Rescue from the Underworld Rescue from the Underworld Ashen Rider Ashen Rider Ashen Rider Ashen Rider gild gild

Newsflash: 8-drops aren't very good in aggro matchups! Cheating one into play is obviously still good, but Abhorrent Overlord is just as good and much more likely to be hard cast. You upgrade your expensive spells and slow removal in favour of cheap removal and better blockers, it's not the worlds greatest matchup, but it's a lot better after sideboarding. Against non-black heroic aggro matchups where Dark Betrayal doesn't come in, leave in the Gilds and add in Unravel the Aether, which will have targets.

Vs Naya

In:
Hero's Downfall Hero's Downfall Elspeth, Sun's Champion gild Reaper of the Wilds

Out:
Courser of Kruphix Courser of Kruphix Courser of Kruphix Courser of Kruphix Whip of Erebos

Courser is simply too slow and quickly outclassed here, so you bring in more interaction. I'm also wary of leaning too heavily on whip against a deck which will usually be packing a good number of Destructive Revelry, it's possible you want to take even more out in favour of Thoughtseize but I'm not entirely sure.

How to beat it

I've already discussed that it's difficult to specifically add bullets which are good against this deck due to the lack of graveyard interaction in the format. There certainly are some cards and strategies which are good against it though. The principal way of beating it is to hit it when it's weakest - turns 2-3. This is a deck that plays a lot of tapped lands and requires a bit of set up to get its mana working. Pre-board, it has no relevant interactive plays on turn two and will frequently be unable to muster 1BB on turn 3 for Hero's downfall (even if it has drawn it). If you can play meaningful threats on the first two turns of the game that aren't simply blanked by Courser of Kruphix (a weakness many black and red aggro creatures suffer from), then you're in a good position to stop the dredge deck from ever catching up - ESPECIALLY if you are able to then untap with God's Willing in hand. For this reason, I think that some form of Wx heroic deck, with evasive or just huge creatures, is the worst matchup for the dredge deck and it would need to substantially reconfigure its sideboard if those strategies ever started getting popular.

The other categories of cards which are good against the dredge deck are enchantment removal and removal that exiles, specifically Gild and (to a lesser extent) Glare of Heresy. The deck does lean quite heavily on Whip of Erebos and Courser of Kruphix, both of which are susceptible to enchantment removal. Unravel the Aether can be particularly good if you use it to disrupt a scry or stop them from drawing a key card revealed with Courser. Regular spot removal is not good against virtually all of the creatures in the deck, but Gild and Glare can at least stop the recursion chains on Abhorrent Overlord and Ashen Rider. Ultimately, though, this deck is going to be able to land a threat or series of threats against any deck which will take over the very long game. The best bet against it for all decks, including esper control, is to try to be aggressive. I'm surprised more innovation hasn't been done along these lines. Something like (Siren of the Silent Coast) hasn't been incorporated into Esper sideboards - it would be very good against a dredge deck that takes its removal out post-board and is generally susceptible to flyers and early pressure. Essentially beating this deck requires a good understanding of its strengths (late game power, resilience to removal) and weaknesses (early game pressure, flyers) and building and boarding appropriately.

Conclusion

I'm still quite busy at work, so I'm not 100% sure if I'll be able to have an article up next week, but I will try. There's still a number of decks in the format that I'm keen to look at, including esper and the post-BNG Naya deck. I'm mindful that the season is winding up though with the fast-approaching release of Journey into Nix, so I'll have to see what can be done in the available schedule. Until next time...

4 Comments

I actually took the by IYankemDDS at Wed, 04/09/2014 - 22:33
IYankemDDS's picture

I actually took the non-Elspeth version for a spin last weekend, and ended up 2-2. I timed out against Esper and lost to the mirror. I agree that Esper is a really great matchup. Think I am going to upgrade to the version you write about here (3x Elspeth can't be a bad investment) and try it out some more.

The diversity of opinions on by Psychobabble at Thu, 04/10/2014 - 07:16
Psychobabble's picture

The diversity of opinions on the dredge vs esper matchup is fascinating :). You agree with me that it favours dredge, while simon in the comments (and I know Michael Jacobs) thinks that it favours esper. Based on my matches in queues, it felt almost unloseable on the dredge side of things and I think that accords with fundamentals - dredge has the better late game and esper can't be the beatdown unless it gets lucky. I'll be interested to see how this plays out, I will note that in the second week of stats here, dredge went from 25% -> 39% of the meta while esper fell from about 25% to 20%. I don't think this is a coincidence.

The diversity of opinions on by Psychobabble at Thu, 04/10/2014 - 07:16
Psychobabble's picture

[double post]

Ran up against B/W aggro by IYankemDDS at Sun, 04/13/2014 - 18:31
IYankemDDS's picture

Ran up against B/W aggro twice today. The first game feels very difficult, post-board is better but still not good by any stretch.