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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Jan 15 2010 3:08am
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Bad Beats

I should probably begin this article talking about how my opponent played - and broke - a Terramorphic Expanse on his main phase turn one.  He didn't.  I still have never lost a game to anyone that has done that.  (Take that, Mr. Spaniel.)  

Just kidding, of course. 

If you are confused, we have both written articles recently in which we used breaking an Expanse on turn one as an example of either bad or smart plays. We both had valid points.  I argued that a mistake on turn one can cost you the game.   He argued that appearing to be a worse player than you actually are can lead your opponent into complacency.  Both of those points are true.  Our disagreement is over whether breaking the Expanse is a good bluff or a true indication of being bad.  I'm firmly on the "bad play" side, since I think the disadvantage of revealing info early more than offsets the bluff.  If I see LSV or Sam Black cracking an Expanse on his turn one in Limited, I may change my mind. 

Whatever.  On to bad beats.

Here's my deck.

Not All that Bad, Actually
M10 4-3-2-2 draft deck
Creatures
1 Air Elemental 
1 Illusionary Servant
1 Wind Drake
1 Wall of Frost
Merfolk Looter 
2 Stampeding Rhino
1 Djinn of Wishes
1 Snapping Drake
1 Acidic Slime
1 Cudgel Troll
2 Elvish Visionary
13 cards

Other Spells
2 Essence Scatter
2 Rampant Growth
1 Divination
1 Sleep
2 Giant Growth
1 Ice Cage
1 Negate
1 Cancel
11 cards
 
Lands
8 Island
8 Forest
1 Terramorphic Expanse
17 cards

Sideboard
1 Naturalize
1 Disorient
1 Unsummon
1 Emerald Oryx
1 Windstorm
5 cards
 
Djinn of Wishes

 

I was pretty happy with the deck.  I didn't have a ton of creatures, but what I had was solid.   I also had some counters, Sleep, etc.  I liked it.

Game one was not terrible.  My opponent won the die roll, and my seven was six land and a Rampant Growth.  I can't keep that.  My six was five creatures and Sleep.  My five was decent, and I kept.  

My opponent's first four turns went Mountain, Go.  Swamp, Demon's Horn, Go.  Swamp, Wall of Bone, Go.  Plains, Go - then he (or she - he for simplicity) cast Silence on me during my upkeep.   By turn eight, he had killed my Wind Drake with Seismic Strike and dropped another Wall of Bone.  I had played out my hand, and was getting some damage round his walls with a hoard of creatures - then he dropped a second Plains, regenerated his walls and cast Day of Judgment.  

I never drew another flier before I died to something random - Nightmare, IIRC - plus Consume Spirit.  Yes, his deck had Seismic Strike (which counts Mountains), Consume Spirit (which requires black mana), Nightmare (which counts Swamps) and he splashed for Silence and Day of Judgment.  

I don't think I misplayed this game.  My only option was to play out my creatures and try to swarm around the Walls.  I really don't think I should have expected to see a RBw deck cast Day of Judgment.

Game two I was on the play.  My seven were Terramorphic Expanse, Island, Forest, Forest, Illusionary Servant, Wall of Frost and Essence Scatter.  That seems fine.  I kept.

I played the Terramorphic Expanse.  I then ended my turn - without blowing the Expanse.

I doubt it mattered.  I don't think my opponent would have fallen for - or even understood - the bluff.

On his turn, he played a Swamp and this dude:

Acolyte of Xathrid

I blew the Expanse at the end of his turn, like a good little player.

Turn two we both did nothing, except play lands.

Turn three I played my Merfolk Looter, and he drained me for one with the Acolyte.  On his turn three he killed my Looter.

Turn four I drew a land, then played the Illusionary Servant. 

Turn five I drew a land, beat, and passed.  He did something irrelevant, and drained me.

Turn six I drew a land, beat, and passed.  Turn six or so he played Nightmare, and I countered with Essence Scatter.

Turn seven I drew a land, beat, and passed.  He dropped a Canyon Minotaur.

Turn eight I drew a land and  dropped Wall of Frost.  On his turn, he played his fourth Mountain, then targeted Illusionary Servant with Seismic Assault.

Turn nine I drew a land and did nothing.  On his turn nine, he played Wall of Bone.  

All along, the Acolyte had been draining me for one a turn.  My hand was all lands.  He had played a lot of lands, and some irrelevant stuff, like the Demon's Horn.

Along about turn ten or so, I finally drew a non-land spell: Rampant Growth.  My deck was laughing at me.  I cast the Growth and fetched a Forest. 

The next turn, he cast a Raging Goblin, and later a Warpath Ghoul - and the multiple creatures meant he could get some damage past my Wall of Frost.  I continued to draw lands.  Finally, at six life, I drew the Air Elemental, then the Wind Drake - but he killed me with a Consume Spirit for 3 on his turn 15 or 16. 

I know it does no good to look, but my next cards were Negate, Djinn of Wishes, Rampant Growth #2 (of course), Stampeding Rhino, Ice Cage and Acidic Slime.

Bad beats, indeed. 

It was a reasonably fun match, for a while.  We chatted, and he told me about all the rares he got.  He had eleven, including the Hive Mind and Mirror of Fate that I had opened and passed.  It was civil - but it hurt to lose.  It hurt more when I saw what happened to my rating.  

So, can we learn anything from this debacle - other than to hate the shuffler? 

Yes, we can - and big time props to everyone who has already spotted where I lost the game.

I wish I had the replay, but I can't find it.  This happened roughly the middle of last month, and I have drafted a lot before and since then.  There are a lot of games in my games log.  Doesn't matter - we can reconstruct the critical parts.

At the end of his turn two, he had Swamp, Mountian and Acolyte of Xarthrid in play.  I had a Forest and Island.  My hand was Island, Forest, Forest, Illusionary Servant, Wall of Frost, Essence Scatter.

I drew Merfolk Looter, played a Forest and the Looter.  He drained me with the Acolyte EoT.

On his turn, he played a Swamp and cast Weakness on my Looter, killing it.

etc.

That's where I lost the game.  On turn three, I played the wrong land.  The correct play was Island, Illusionary Servant.  Then, on turn four, I can play the Forest, cast the Looter and have Essence Scatter mana up.  I might even have drawn the Negate by then, to further protect the Looter.  A turn three Illusionary Servant also gets the beats going earlier, which is fine against a deck with Wrath Day of Judgment.

It was just a misclick - I knew the right play, and I clicked the wrong land.  I'm not sure if I was fumble-fingered, or if I thought I had two Islands in play already.  Whatever: I played the wrong land.  I knew it as soon as the Forest hit play.

Just a little mistake, right?

Let's assume I played that correctly.  Turn three I play the Island and the Illusion.  On his turn three, he plays Weakness and kills the Illusion.  On my turn four, I drop the Looter.   On turn five, I start looting through all those lands.  The Air Elemental hits play when I am still at 10 life or so, and I will have the Negate to stop the Consume Spirit the next turn at the latest.   He dies to fliers shortly thereafter.  I can even smash his only Plains with the Acidic Slime, if necessary, to make sure he never casts the Day of Judgment.

But that is not what happened, because I played the wrong land turn three.

I'm not sure he deserved to win - his deck was beyond bad - but I deserved to lose.  I threw that game, and match, away.

Years ago, Richard Feldman wrote an great article arguing that every bad beats story was really the story of a misplay somewhere early on that, while it might not have won the game, at least turned the loss into a rout.   Here, it turned an easy victory into a painful loss.

It's important to watch your replays.  Even when you win, you will find that you make small mistakes.  When you lose, you will often find that the small mistake(s) have cost you the game.  Study those mistakes, and learn to avoid them.

Inside every bad beats story is a lesson struggling to get out.  Learn those lessons.

Here endeth the sermon.

PRJ

"one million words" on MTGO 

 

 

 

15 Comments

Day of Judgment? by Kamisaki (not verified) at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 03:32
Kamisaki's picture

If this was a real life draft, then your opponent was cheating. If it was online, then I think you meant to say he played Planar Cleansing, since I've never once seen Day of Judgment in an M10 draft. :)

Wait, I just reread that by Kamisaki (not verified) at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 03:35
Kamisaki's picture

Wait, I just reread that part, and you said he only dropped a second Plains before he played the sweeper. PLanar Cleansing requires 3. What exactly did happen that turn? Now I'm really confused.

What? by moerutora (not verified) at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 05:23
moerutora's picture

Why were you playing in the 4322? Why would you cast the looter instead of removal bait? Why DoJ when it has to be Planar Cleansing? Why say "just joking" when you obviously are not due to multiple dissing when opponent and you did not crack a expanse throughout the article ?
Stop, Please...

I suspect it's because the by Anonymous at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 10:51
Anonymous's picture

I suspect it's because the whole story's made up?

> Why playing in a by one million words at Sat, 01/16/2010 - 08:37
one million words's picture

> Why playing in a 4322?

Because it was a draft, and it was about to fire. And I played in M10 because I have lots of M10 packs.

> Why play Looter..?

read the whole article - especially the part about how I played the wrong land on turn three.

> Why DoJ instead of PC?

Because I wrote about game one quickly - since what I really wanted to write about was game two. I got blown out by a splashed Wrath effect in game one, from a deck that had no business splashing for it.

> Just joking ... did not crack an expanse throughout the article?

Read the line right after the picture: "I blew the Expanse at the end of his turn, like a good little player."

Not your best article, Pete, by AndreFM (not verified) at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 09:05
AndreFM's picture

Not your best article, Pete, confusing stuff with the DoJ, and having read previous articles from you, I know this is not the case but you do come across as not lacking in arrogance.

Also, your deck has a total 1 ways of killing the Acolyte, and he played it T1. Not the worst sideboard card against you.

It was maindeck - and it is by one million words at Sat, 01/16/2010 - 08:41
one million words's picture

It was maindeck - and it is not really that good against a deck full of fat and fliers, which he saw game one. It is a very slow pinger that cannot kill anything. (Okay - if you Giant Growth it, then it can, but it is a 0/1.)

On the other hand, having done the raredrafting thing, I'm pretty sure he was at least three colors and 20 lands, because he had a card pool full of Hive Minds and other, unplayable rares.

"If I see LSV or Sam Black by StealthBadger at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 09:35
StealthBadger's picture

"If I see LSV or Sam Black cracking an Expanse on his turn one in Limited, I may change my mind"

That's precisely the kind of situation where you'd be 100% right. Because if I see LSV sitting opposite me, no amount of terramorphic cracking is ever going to convince me that he's a bad player. That would not neccesarily be the case if someone random sat down opposite me.

As it happens, I agree with you on the terramorphic issue, but you're using a deliberately misleading example, and it does you no service.

well, since we were all by one million words at Sat, 01/16/2010 - 08:30
one million words's picture

well, since we were all talking about online, and since many pros change account names at times, I doubt you will always know when you play against a pro.

This is hardly a "misleading example." I'll say it again more clearly: if a limited expert recommends cracking expanses on turn one, I'll reconsider. Until then..

Good Cards, Bad Play by BitterWizard at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 11:06
BitterWizard's picture
3

The point of this article is not about what cards the opponent played it's about, getting beat by what appears to be a vastly inferior deck, because of an early mistake. Unfortunately it happens to me way too often. I'm still a newb when it comes to Magic, but one thing that was obvious from the start is that Magic is an extremely unforgiving game, especially for newbies like me. Mistakes get you beat, big mistakes get you beat real fast. I think the take-away from this article is at the end. Watch your replays, learn from your mistakes and be honest about your play. There's a reason everybody has a "bad beat" story and as RF is paraphrased by Pete, luck is rarely the mitigating factor in the match.

hindsight is always 20/20 by mysticknight232 (not verified) at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 13:07
mysticknight232's picture

while i certainly agree w/ watching your replays to gain insight into how you should have played or could have played better, i always take it w/ a grain of salt because your perception of the situation has shifted greatly. while watching a replay, it's easy to say you should have done one thing over another because you not only know what the next play is going to be, but you also know what the play after that is going to be all the way to the conclusion. your information is limited by the present. so in the end, i try to learn from my mistakes, but i also make sure to consider my situation at the time considering i didn't have all the information i have at games end.

good article tho. nice point to make about making every play count, even a basic land drop.

what is this i don't even by Anonymous (not verified) at Fri, 01/15/2010 - 23:02
Anonymous's picture

what is this i don't even

another thing by Morkje (not verified) at Sat, 01/16/2010 - 05:53
Morkje's picture

You say he Seismiced the Servant when he had his forth mountain. Might this indicate he doesnt know how Servant works? Have you asked?

Because if he doesnt understand he wouldnt have used the weakness on it, and used it on the looter a turn later.
This would mean you still wouldn't get the Air Elemental in time, but you would have gotten an extra beats in.

Also why no beat on turn 8, or did you just miss to write that down?

Shaky article, and frankly I dont belive it ever happened because of the Day of Judgement "mistake"

Roflmao just because Pete by Paul Leicht at Sat, 01/16/2010 - 05:56
Paul Leicht's picture

Roflmao just because Pete made a mistake does not invalidate his article. I understand being aggrieved by it but you caught it. So...now what? Everything else he said must be a lie? That's a might strange curve there.

Yes, was Planar Cleansing by one million words at Sat, 01/16/2010 - 08:26
one million words's picture

Yes, it was Planar Cleansing. Which is triple white - so even more of a surprise game one, given that he was playing cards that required massive amounts of Mountains and Swamps. He was also playing lots of lands, because he had rare-drafted like mad (as he told me) and he probably had a dozen playables.

OBV that he did not know how Illusionary Servant works. However, given his play in turn one, he probably would have used the Weakness just to reduce the damage. Was my opponent that bad - remember that I mentioned that I lost 14 rating points? That means my opponent's rating had to be around 1400 or so. (edit: 1390, assuming my rating was 1725, which was probably about right.)

Yes, the draft happened. I remember making the mistake on turn three, and remember spending pretty much the entire draft beating myself up because I could have been looting through the land flood, had I not been an idiot. However, I could not find the replay when writing this, so I had to recreate game one. I remember getting blindsided by the splash sweeper, which took out my groundpounders and sweepers. I should have called it Wrath - which is what I always call it in written notes, no matter what flavor of Wrath it is.

As a few of you noted, the whole point of the article is that bad beats stories are almost never really stories of how the shuffler screwed you, but how you screwed up. I'll try to be more obvious in the future.