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By: thewoof2, Christopher Gallon
Jun 05 2014 12:00pm
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Classic's End of Days

The Classic format is coming to an end.  With people focused on Vintage and many selling cards the Daily Events have not fired and I do not think anymore will do so.  That means the only event left for the Classic format is the upcoming Classic League Invitational on June 8th.  Luckily for me I have qualified for this final event and will be able to play in a competitive Classic event one last time.  And while I will always have nostalgia for this format I also welcome the dawn of a new day - Vintage.  After the Invitational it will be time to usher in the new world and move on to bringing you Vintage Showdowns.

Vintage Masters (VMA)

Many people have commented on the card pool of VMA and as most have said it looks to be a powerful and fun set for limited play.  I have few  complaints in regards to the card pool so rather than delving into what I liked and disliked this article will speak more on the financial aspects of VMA.

When cards started to get spoiled I was immediately struck by the numerous high cost gems in the set.  Like many, in the beginning I started to think the estimated value (EV) of opening a VMA pack could be higher than the pack cost of $7.  However, once the complete set was released, those thoughts were tempered due to the large number of low valued cards included.  So let's take a look at some specifics, but to start some overall assumptions I have made throughout this article.

  1.  We do not have all information for the set yet, therefore I have made educated guesses throughout.  I could be wrong with these guesses such as card rarity, pack composition and probabilities.
  2. You could win the lottery.  Yes in VMA my understanding is you could open a foil Black Lotus and also a Force of Will in the same pack.  You also have a chance of striking gold with other foil power cards and if you do congrats.  That said, I have not accounted for foils or lottery events in my analysis.
  3. Uncommons and Commons are not included.  Yes, some might have some value but for the most part they will be financially irrelevant and not worth the time to include.
  4. New cards like Dack Fayden have no existing prices so I have assumed prices.  Dack Fayden is the only one that I put any real value on.

VMA Mythics

VMA has 30 Mythics in the set, nearly half of them are restricted in Vintage so most players will only need 1 copy for their collection.  To start let's look at the cards and what their buy and sell prices are as of today 6/1/2014.

Card Buy Sell
Armageddon $1.30 $2.28
Balance $0.79 $1.00
Bazaar of Baghdad $12.55 $14.36
Channel $0.09 $0.50
City in a Bottle $0.22 $0.39
Coercive Portal $0.22 $0.39
Dack Fayden $12.55 $14.36
Demonic Tutor $12.20 $15.49
Eureka $0.22 $0.39
Fastbond $3.40 $5.10
Jace, the Mind Sculptor $18.75 $31.08
Library of Alexandria $7.20 $12.29
Lion's Eye Diamond $34.60 $67.28
Mana Crypt $18.60 $28.85
Mana Drain $21.20 $24.68
Marchesa, the Black Rose $0.22 $0.39
Memory Jar $0.57 $1.11
Mishra's Workshop $19.80 $23.90
Morphling $0.30 $0.24
Muzzio, Visionary Architect $0.22 $0.39
Oath of Druids $5.15 $7.63
Scourge of the Throne $0.22 $0.39
Skullclamp $0.22 $0.78
Sol Ring $4.55 $5.72
Time Vault $4.70 $5.30
Tolarian Academy $5.95 $8.77
Upheaval $0.67 $0.94
Wheel of Fortune $2.65 $3.40
Yawgmoth's Bargain $0.47 $0.47
Yawgmoth's Will $3.45 $5.05

Key Information:

  • The average price people will pay to buy is $6.43 (buy)
  • The average price people will pay to sell is $9.43 (sell)
  • 9 cards are worth over $10 and only Lion's Eye Diamond is over $30
  • 14 cards are nearly worthless falling under $1

VMA Rares

VMA has 105 Rares in the set, let's look at them:

Card Buy Sell   Card Buy Sell
Academy Elite 0.28 0.43   Mana Vault 10.45 15.47
Ancient Tomb 6.4 10.1   Masticore 0.048 0.1
Ankh of Mishra 0.49 0.51   Mind's Desire 0.3 0.55
Badlands 9.05 14.87   Nature's Ruin 0.28 0.43
Baleful Force 0.018 0.17   Necropotence 5.35 8.71
Baleful Strix 3.2 4.97   Nevinyrral's Disk 2.35 3.86
Basandra, Battle Seraph 0.49 1.36   Norwood Priestess 0.28 0.43
Bayou 19.5 29   Null Rod 8.2 15.24
Berserk 3.7 4.44   Palinchron 0.23 0.52
Brago, King Eternal 0.28 0.43   Parallax Wave 2.15 3.58
Burning of Xinye 0.02 0.05   Plateau 5.1 7.17
Burning Wish 7.6 9.56   Plea for Power 0.28 0.43
Chaos Warp 1.3 1.79   Predator, Flagship 0.43 1.05
Clickslither 0.036 0.05   Realm Seekers 0.28 0.43
Control Magic 0.82 1.5   Recurring Nightmare 1.36 1.91
Council's Judgment 0.28 0.43   Regrowth 2.15 2.89
Crater Hellion 0.075 0.09   Reign of the Pit 0.28 0.43
Crescendo of War 0.02 0.05   Ring of Gix 0.03 0.05
Crovax the Cursed 0.016 0.05   Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary 2.95 3.96
Cruel Bargain 0.28 0.43   Rorix Bladewing 0.024 0.05
Cursed Scroll 3.35 3.48   Saproling Burst 1.5 2.02
Dack's Duplicate 0.28 0.43   Savannah 6.65 12.3
Decree of Justice 0.42 0.45   Scrubland 5.3 8.36
Deranged Hermit 0.45 0.46   Sea Drake 0.022 0.05
Drakestown Forgotten 0.28 0.43   Selvala, Explorer Returned 0.28 0.43
Edric, Spymaster of Trest 10.85 13.52   Shivan Wurm 0.016 0.18
Ephemeron 0.018 0.05   Silvos, Rogue Elemental 0.02 0.05
Eternal Dragon 0.28 0.43   Smokestack 3.3 5.04
Flowstone Sculpture 0.016 0.05   Sphere of Resistance 2.6 3.93
Flusterstorm 17.3 25.53   Spirit Cairn 0.01 0.03
Force of Will 32 45   Spirit Mirror 0.036 0.07
Future Sight 0.36 0.87   Spiritmonger 0.29 0.75
Gamble 3.35 3.78   Starstorm 0.012 0.11
Genesis 1.6 2.23   Strip Mine 8.85 12.54
Gerrard's Battle Cry 0.018 0.05   Stroke of Genius 1.18 1.39
Gigapede 0.018 0.05   Sulfuric Vortex 3.65 3.75
Goblin Lackey 0.5 0.77   Survival of the Fittest 5.35 7
Goblin Piledriver 3.1 3.41   Sylvan Library 3.55 5.84
Grand Coliseum 0.018 0.1   Taiga 10.1 12.08
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden 0.28 0.43   Thawing Glaciers 1.92 2.83
Hermit Druid 0.1 0.29   Tradewind Rider 0.25 0.7
Ichorid 10.3 11.43   Tropical Island 17.5 24.25
Jareth, Leonine Titan 0.055 0.09   Tundra 32 47.87
Karmic Guide 0.9 1.2   Underground Sea 21.7 33.52
Karn, Silver Golem 1.24 1.5   Vampiric Tutor 21 29.65
Keldon Necropolis 0.055 0.08   Visara the Dreadful 0.1 0.32
Kjeldoran Outpost 0.05 0.11   Volcanic Island 32 34.63
Kongming, Sleeping Dragon 0.05 0.11   Volrath's Shapeshifter 0.01 0.05
Lake of the Dead 0.23 0.31   Winds of Rath 0.84 0.85
Laquatus's Champion 0.022 0.05   Worldgorger Dragon 0.07 0.16
Lightning Dragon 0.065 0.16   Yavimaya Hollow 0.48 0.91
Living Death 1.36 3.3   Zhalfirin Crusader 0.026 0.05
Magister of Worth 0.28 0.43        

Key Information:

  • The average price people will pay to buy is $3.49
  • The average price people will pay to sell is $4.95
  • 17 cards are worth over $10
  • 58 cards are nearly worthless falling under $1

Power 9 (P9)

We all know the P9 card pool but how much will these gems cost?  Many have guessed but they are just guesses, so I wanted to try to hold some variables constant to see how the P9 costs are impacted.  Some overall assumptions in addition to the previously mentioned ones above:

  • When you open a VMA pack you have a 94.11% chance of opening a Rare, a 4% chance of a Mythic and a 1.89% chance of a Power 9 card.
  • I will use the sell prices

I understand some of these assumptions will change, my only point in the exercise is to try and determine what we can from the information we have and then we can make guesses to the variables.

Constant #1 - Hold VMA EV constant at $7

If for a second we say that the EV of the cards opened on average equals the VMA pack cost of $7, then what would the P9 have to cost with the above prices?

Average P9 cost would be $950

$950 is a high dollar amount and the prices I used are bound to further decrease only pushing up the P9 cost to retain a VMA EV of $7.  Conclusion, VMA EV packs will not be close to their $7 cost.

Constant #2 - Average P9 cost is greater than any other existing non-foil card

Rishadan Port is currently the highest priced card online at just over $111.  WOTC has mentioned their goal to make the Black Lotus the highest priced card online.  So if the average P9 cost is $112 what is the VMA EV?

VMA EV = $5.27

That would place the VMA EV around 75% of the actual pack cost.  Conclusion, this seems reasonable, however the question is with this EV will people be less likely to draft VMA unless they are good drafters.

Constant #3 - VMA reprints fall another 10%

Assume the known card prices fall with the increased supply by another 10% but we keep VMA EV at $5.27.

Average P9 cost would be $350

It seems very likely with VMA that reprints will continue to fall by at least another 10%, having the VMA EV remain the same makes average P9 at $350.  While this number seems high to me I think it is the most realistic number so far.

Constant #4 - VMA reprints fall 20% and the VMA EV is lowered to $4.50 (little less than 1/3 its pack value)

So again assume the known card prices fall with the increased supply but this time by 20% and we also lowered the VMA EV to $4.50.

Average P9 cost would be $230

To me the most likely scenario is VMA reprints actually fall by 20%, also the EV still seems high so I decided to use around 2/3 the pack cost.  $230 average per P9 is my best guess at this point. 

This analysis is interesting but has obvious flaws and guesswork.  The single largest factor on card prices is supply and demand dynamics.  Therefore the fact that people do not need 4x of the P9, they only need 1 should help push costs down on these.  So to make an educated guess at a round number I will say the Average P9 cost would be $200 making a VMA pack EV be $4.43.

VMA EV for Personas

So I think there are two key personas of online players to consider here that I want to detail.

  1. The Collector/Holder:  I categorize these people as ones that will want their collection to have almost all VMA cards for their collections OR they feel holding their VMA cards is preferred to selling immediately to get more value later on.  I use the term holder meaning they will hold the cards the open for some time in the future.
  2. The Drafter:  These people do not have any desire to keep the cards they open OR they already have the cards and will not want the VMA versions.

So why am I differentiating between these two groups?  Quite simply it is because the EV of a VMA pack to each differs. 

The Collector/Holder

Let me explain by using the Collector as the first use case.  If the Collector decides to join a Swiss Vintage event they will have to pay $25.  To them (since they will not sell any cards opened) the value of the cards are the bot sell prices because they could play the event or just buy the cards.  So if we look at the EV of the Swiss Vintage event it is $25 minus the sell price of cards taken and packs won.  Doing this math, if we use the VMA EV of $4.43 then the collector can expect to get cards worth $13.29 (3 boosters) in the Swiss event on average.  If they then win 1 match they get one VMA booster worth $7 receiving $20.29 in cards and packs.  If they win 2 matches they get 2 VMA packs or $27.29.  So it takes two match wins to make money on a swiss event.

The Drafter

The Drafter decides to join a Swiss Vintage event they will also have to pay $25.  To them (since they will sell any cards opened) the value of the cards are the buy prices because that is what people will readily buy it for on the market.  Using buy prices the EV of a pack decreases to $3.96 assuming $200 per power on average.  So the EV of the Swiss Vintage event is decreased by the sell price of cards taken and packs won.  So to start if we use the VMA EV of $3.96 then the Drafter can expect to get cards worth $11.88 in the Swiss event.  If they then win 1 match they get one VMA booster worth $7 making $18.88 and two match wins $25.88.  So for the Drafter it takes two match wins to break even on a swiss event.

VMA Final Thoughts

Now I understand there are other incentives like MOCS points, getting foils, winning the lottery, commons/uncommons and the enjoyment of the game but this set no longer looks as profitable as it once did.  Just the mere thought of being able to open Power in a draftable set will bring many people to play.  But for how long and how many times if indeed the EV of an event is low (to be honest I have no idea the "normal" event EV of other sets so I cannot compare them).  WOTC was smart in age old trick of pointing us to the flashing light (high cost cards) and quietly revealing a bunch of worthless ones, resulting in a great marketing ploy.  That said, do I really care?  Not if the marketing works, because I want VMA to be drafted heavily thereby having many Vintage cards online and hopefully making vintage a robust format. 

Woof

10 Comments

I hope this analysis is by Cownose at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 12:31
Cownose's picture

I hope this analysis is waaaaay off. If power is running an average of $200 a piece then I will not buy any at all (not because I cannot afford them, but because that price point will virtually guarantee a dead format in 6 months time). No matter how good the draft format is I won't draft it much either (as I already have everything I need save for power). If people wouldn't play classic because of needing 4x $130 FoW and some $30-40 Duals they will certainly not be willing to pay nearly $2k for a set of power. If Vintage is going to be just like classic was the last few years, then count me out =/

I kind of agree with you by thewoof2 at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 13:45
thewoof2's picture

I kind of agree with you Cownose. Seeing all the "junk" rares in this set and calculating the odds was eye opening to me.

lol @ $200 for power There is by Gabriel Strasburg at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 12:46
Gabriel Strasburg's picture

lol @ $200 for power

There is zero chance of that happening. I would be willing to bet real money that within a month of release only the lotus will be above 100.

You may be right and that was by thewoof2 at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 13:44
thewoof2's picture

You may be right and that was my thought before doing the analysis. So outside of just *thinking* it is too high, what is your logic of why within a month of release only the lotus will be above 100? I am interested in hearing it...

See, here's the thing: MMA by enderfall at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 14:57
enderfall's picture

See, here's the thing: MMA had a much higher percentage of junk rares. The only rares worth anything in MMA were Cryptic, Ravager, Shackles, Kataki, Explosives, Vial, and maybe 1 or two others. At the time MMA was being drafted, even Blood Moon was not worth much... I think I bought foil ones for $3 each. There were a bunch of rares between $0.5 and $1, but very little over $1. The Mythics weren't exactly breath-taking either with only 'Goyf, Bob, Clique and Kiki-Jiki (which was just released in FTV a few months earlier) that even saw any play in Modern. The Swords were probably only interesting to people who were casual or preferred the new art.

By any calculation, 'Goyf should've been a $200 card in order to get the EV of MMA even remotely close to $7. While 'Goyf was a reprint, people need 4 of it (generally) unlike Power which people only need 1 of unless they are kindly hoarding them.

It's hard to put an accurate price estimation on Power, but I have a hard time seeing any card sustain a price >$100, even Lotus. Consider MM Block Packs, the odds of pulling one Port was something like 1:180, yet during MM block release and shortly thereafter, Port was a ~$35 card. Yes Port /=Power, but I think more Power will be opened during VM release and thereafter (since it'll likely replace some if not all of the MMA events that have fired in the last year since MMA was "pulled off the MTGO digital shelves") than there are Ports in the system.

Besides, a $200 average price would not last once people completely ditched Vintage. I would probably quit too and buy paper Power.

It is interesting looking at by thewoof2 at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 15:17
thewoof2's picture

It is interesting looking at MMA, I have not done any analysis on MMA but it seems you are saying even with a lot of low priced rares/mythics and packs with a low EV because of it that people still drafted a lot and card prices stayed low due to the supply.

The only logic that I can think of on how this could happen is if people loved the "fun" of the format so much that they didn't mind losing money on it. I guess I would ask those who drafted MMA a lot, did you tend to lose money on drafting (assuming you are an average drafter and not winning every tourney) and keep doing it due to the enjoyment? MMA was only available for a short time as well Scott so it could be the format worked because it was new but would have died over a longer timeframe.

In terms of ditching vintage, I suppose one thing to consider is maybe P9 is expensive but if the other staples drop a lot like they already have then total cost of a vintage deck might be less than classic by a lot because P9 is a 1 of and other staples are 4 of's. But I am sort of worried with all the "junk" rares I see in the set.

It don't think it'll matter by enderfall at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 15:40
enderfall's picture

It don't think it'll matter even if all the rest of the cards drop 75%, people will still see that (under the assumptions herein) a set of Power costs $1800, and they won't even bother. If Force at $400 for a playset was a problem before, Power at $1800 might as well be like climbing Mt. Everest. Power absolutely has to be under $600-700 for the format to have any chance.

For better or worse, people look at the initial price tag rather than the total cost to own. Think of car buying. People would be hesitant to buy a $40,000 car, but when you break down the payments to $400/month, even if it takes 84 months and in the end costs $56,000 (due to interest), they still find that more reasonable.

You guys (Woof and Ender) are by country hillbilly at Thu, 06/05/2014 - 20:30
country hillbilly's picture
4

You guys (Woof and Ender) are NUTS!

Here's the problem with your logic above - when people see the cards (which you say will cost > $200 each) are DRAFTABLE - human nature says a ton of ppl will be in those queues. Do you know how many people drafted Tempest for a MYTHIC uncommon? Literally - if you do 20 drafts in a week you have only "opened" 60 Tempest uncommons - and there are 110!!!!

The other problem is they are a touch less rare than they look, because you really CAN'T use more than one.

I call HOOEY - but I do agree with 100+ for lotus, long term. I even think $150 would be fair.

Z

Not sure I agree by walkerdog at Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:26
walkerdog's picture

That's certainly possible, but to argue the other side of that, people frequently don't know what the money cards are in a set (think LED/Lotus petal/tutors) and even this week I saw someone ask, "Is there any money in D-I-I drafts?" which is a format that includes the $70 Lil. I do think that Vintage probably can overcome that, but it might not.

There is no prospect of the by sirgog at Fri, 06/06/2014 - 02:12
sirgog's picture

There is no prospect of the Lotus being close in price (medium term) of Wasteland with present supply/demand unless VMA totally fails.

Every Legacy player wants 4 Wastelands. Most Vintage players want 4. Compare to Lotus, Vintage players want 1 and Legacy players do not want it.

Lotus is simply too common (at one playset, which is 1 card, personally opened per ~160 drafts), compared to Wasteland (one playset personally opened per ~145 drafts in a much less popular draft format).

In the absence of more Wastelands entering the system, I would be stunned if a full set of P9 gets even CLOSE to the price of a set of four Wastelands once the initial hype is over.