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By: Felorin, Dr. Cat
Dec 21 2009 11:57am
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Well, amidst holidays, visiting family members, working hard on Furcadia programming, and attending my first Buttnumbathon at the Alamo Drafthouse Theatre, I managed to sneak in a 3 AM Zendikar draft.  Buttnumbathon is the annual birthday party of Harry Knowles, who runs the movie review site http://aintitcool.com.  He fills up an entire movie theatre with nerds for a 24 hour marathon viewing of movies old and new, with some wild movie trailers between.  This year had the US premiere of Micmacs, and world premieres of Shutter Island, Frozen, and Kick Ass (which kicked ass).  We also had the first non-press showing of Avatar, and the world premiere of the Iron Man 2 trailer.  Fun times!

I've done well in Zendikar sealed, winning my local store's release event with a truly sick blue/green cardpool, and at Pro Tour Austin, me and Billy got to the finals of the 2HG side event & did a prize split with the other team, scoring us a regular Zendikar set and a foil Zendikar set to divide between us.  Sweet!  In drafting at local stores I've had a 2-1 draft and a 2-0-1 draft, at Pro Tour Austin the drafts were single elimination and I was 1-1 in the only one I entered.  So I've only drafted 3 times in paper, and none online.  For my first MTGO Zendikar draft, I jumped into a Swiss queue.

Going through various articles and walkthroughs by the pros, word is that Black and Red are the two strongest colors.  Though unlike M10, mono-red is probably the most commonly sought ought mono-color deck, rather than mono-black (which is still good too!)  Most people agree white is the third best color.  Though black/white is a tough color combo sometimes because of the number of color-intensive spells in both of those colors.  Luis Scott Vargas has been getting into drafting green more, because the good players all know not to take it, so it's extremely underdrafted and you can get a solid deck.  Blue has some individually very powerful cards like Living Tsunami, but it's not nearly as deep in good cards as the other colors.  It's a fast format, so 1, 2 and 3 drops are important, and cards with 3+ toughness are highly valuable as blockers to slow down the other guy's quick rushes.  Ok, that's the basics, let's see what cards this one has in store!

  Pack 1 pick 1:

  My Pick: Burst Lightning
 

This pack's fairly deep in black.  With no bombs the removal catches my eye, mainly Disfigure and Burst Lightning.  Gatekeeper of Malakir is a 2 for 1, but you don't get to pick who dies, he's not instant speed, and he requires a heavier black committment, where Disfigure works even as a splash.  Mind Sludge can be an awesome blowout against slower decks, but again only really shines with a heavy amount of black.  I think I would take the excellent Burst Lightning over Disfigure even in a vaccuum as A) it can also go to the dome, and B) it can go up to 4 later in the game.  But there's also the matter of signalling.  A few people say go ahead and pick into a deep color, as something is likely to wheel.  But I will have multiple people to my left fighting me for black in pack 2 for sure, wherease if I take Burst Lightning I only pass one red card, and Spire Barrage is only really good in a mono-red deck, so many people won't even take it.  So I'm sending a good signal, and it might even wheel, and I'm probably taking the strongest card in the pack anyway.  Burst Lightning it is.

  Pack 1 pick 2:

  My Pick: Bladetusk Boar
 

The Berserker is a reasonable pick to fill out the all-important 2 drops and get the early aggression you want in this format.  But the Boar has evasion, and I didn't realize at this point I'd be hungry for 2-drops later.  The torch is ok removal that works in any color deck.  But it requires you to have a guy spend his turn tapping to torch someone, rather than attacking, so it's not as good a piece of removal as an instant spell or even a sorcery.  Also the Boar being there might tempt someone into red, passing less exciting red cards helps keep me set up for a good pack two hopefully.

  Pack 1 pick 3:

  My Pick: Inferno Trap
 
 

Inferno Trap is quite good removal even if you have to pay "full retail".  Spire Barrages are supposed to wheel for you when you're on the mono-red plan, since they're no good for anyone else.  Marsh Casualties gives me pause though.  It and Vampire Nighthawk are the two biggest "bomb uncommons" in the set, it's a real beating and can easily hand you the game when you play it.  I considered it, but I have a strong mono-red plan started, and I've passed some good black, so I let it go.  Not without a little regret, though!


  Pack 1 pick 4:

  My Pick: Mark of Mutiny
 
 

A lot of the pros are down on Magma Rift because of the land sacrifice.  I think it's quite playable, though it's no Burst Lightning.  Mark of Mutiny fits quite well with the mono-red plan though - get lots of damage in and then surprise them with a Spire Barrage or something else that lets you get fatal damage through - like giving them one less blocker than they planned AND giving you one extra attacker!  When you use this for an alpha strike, its drawback doesn't matter.  None of the non-red cards here are very tempting, so the mono-red plan is still on the table along with the possibility of going 2 color.


  Pack 1 pick 5:

  My Pick: Tuktuk Grunts
 
 

The Stonework Puma is underrated, and goes into any color deck.  Basically it's good because it blocks intimidate creatures like Surrakar Marauder, Guul Draz Vampire, and my own Bladetusk Boar. It's also a 3 drop to keep you from having an empty board early and letting the other guy get too much damage in.  But Tuktuk Grunts is decent, cuts red nicely, and the haste is often relevant in a race.  If I weren't focusing on red, Kor Sanctifiers is good, you have both equipment and quests as possible targets to get the two for one, and he's got the 3 toughness for defense.  Whiplash Trap is good too, and there's another Mind Sludge for whoever's playing black.


  Pack 1 pick 6:

  My Pick: Lavaball Trap
 
 

Two rares in pack 6!  The Hedron Scrabbler could be ok, though not exciting.  Frontier Guide can be great in a longer game, especially in a landfall deck, though good luck getting a longer game in this aggressive format.  Scythe Tiger looks like a 1 drop for gambling on getting in some extra early damage, but really he'll trade for some random 2/1 and set you back on tempo - he is an ok play when you have 5-6 land out and can drop another creature plus the decent-sized tiger, but he's nothing exciting.  I probably won't play the lavaball trap or even side it in, since it's basically an 8 mana wrath that you can't count on ever getting to play for 5.  But I wouldn't play the summoning trap either, lavaball cuts red in case someone left of me over-values this card, and it's another rare for my collection and maybe some constructed deck someday (though I doubt it!)  Hey, I'll never get to collect the crappy cards if I don't grab them in packs like this during a draft, right?  I am a packrat, I want one of everything!


  Pack 1 pick 7:

  My Pick: Highland Berserker
 
 

Two drops are very important in this format, so I'm more than happy to get my first one.  Two power for two mana is fine, and I need him more than the torch plus the torch doesn't follow the "cut red hard" plan.


  Pack 1 pick 8:

  My Pick: Tuktuk Grunts
 
 

This is quite a late Nissa's Chosen, so I consider it for a moment.  But green hasn't been flowing much this draft, and this pack was probably just very deep in green and/or stronger cards.  I wouldn't want this if I was heavy red with a little green, either, as it wouldn't reliably come out on turn 2.  All the other non-red cards are weak except maybe Narrow Escape, which can definitely be ok.  But a solid playable and the opportunity to pass zero red cards is what I lilke, and I'm even up to 3 allies now.  I still need more early drops but I'm not hugely clogged with 4 and 5 drops yet.


  Pack 1 pick 9:

  My Pick: Vines of Vastwood
 
 

Ok, no red finally.  (I'm not crazy enough to pick the mountain, sorry!)  Sky Ruin Drake is decent in some kinds of decks, but not in this one.  A random Soaring Seacliff can go in just about any color deck, serving as a Jump spell that doesn't take up a spell slot, and sometimes helping you get fatal damage through.  I particularly like it in green decks with some fatties - goes great with Archers too.  Levitate their guy, then shoot it down!  But I don't pick it over a real spell.  Vines of Vastwood is a fairly quality spell if I have to branch out into another color, blanking enemy removal or bounce spells, and sometimes operating as a nice-sized pump spell.  I'm not going to go black enough to use the Mind Sludge.  It wheeled, but there were 4 strong black cards in this pack, so at least three players are picking some black as one of their colors.  (Maybe more, if someone picked a card of their secondary color out of here instead of a black.)  Also very significant here is that the Spire Barrage did not wheel, meaning at least one other player at this table is thinking about playing heavy red.


  Pack 1 pick 10:

  My Pick: Goblin Bushwhacker
 

The other Highland Berserker didn't wheel, which is a shame.  But I don't mind taking this guy.  He could be a 1 drop if you're totally curving out, you can throw him down as a hasty 2/1 on turn 2, or when you have multiple guys out he can help force in extra damage on an alpha strike.  Also he has a deck named after him, so what the heck!  At this point it's better to up my red count & my low drop guys rather than grab the Whiplash Trap, I think.

  Pack 1 pick 11:

  My Pick: Kraken Hatchling
 

The other Spire Barrage didn't table either, which is bad news!  Those are a staple finisher for a mono-red deck.  Here we have no red, and no green, not even an artifact.  So, if I'm going to keep 2 color options open, the best card here is the Kraken.  The expedition can be good early, but if you topdeck it in late game it's pretty well a blank.  The Hurda can block pretty well late, but the Hatchling starts blocking early and keeps blocking late, so it's just better.  This guy can shut down Step Lynx, Plated Geopede and Vampire Lacerator all day, and plenty of other guys besides.  Horned Turtle was good in core set drafts, and how often did you really use the turtle's 1 power?  Any time you don't need to hit back, this guy's a Horned Turtle at 1/3 the price!  Also lots of Magic players have been vastly entertained by the Kraken Hatchling swinging with Explorer's Scope.

  Pack 1 pick 12:

  My Pick: Scythe Tiger
 
 

Still not very great, but if I'm in red/green he's a reasonably playable dude to up my dude count.


  Pack 1 pick 13:

  My Pick: Teetering Peaks
 
 

Nice!  Two random extra damage on some turns of some games is nice in a red deck, putting them that much closer to "finish you off" range.


  Pack 1 pick 14:

  My Pick: Scythe Tiger
 
 

Here kitty kitty kitty...  Maybe green is my second color if I can't get mono-red.  But I'm not married to it for 3 cards, and I might still be mono-red too.


  Pack 1 pick 15:

  My Pick: Swamp
 
 

One step closer to enough full-art Zendikar lands to pimp out my decks.  So I finish pack one with 8 red playables, plus chances of a strong pack 2 after cutting it so hard.  Though there may be another mono-red guy grabbing those spires, which is worrisome.  Or he might have been dissuaded from that plan since I cut the color hard - let's hope!  If I get 8 playables in every pack that's certainly a deck.


  Pack 2 pick 1:

  My Pick: Shatterskull Giant
 
 

Hideous End is easily the best card in this pack.  But it's not enough to get me to gamble on red/black (as opposed to gambling on mono-red!)  Not after I passed such black goodies in round 1, I could expect black to dry up here if I jump in, and there's solid red cards.  I hesitate about passing up the Zektar Shrine Expedition, as it can be good in the red decks that put on tons of early pressure.  But I don't know if I'm gonna have that kind of red deck.  And after one hard hit, it has no impact on staying ahead on board, whereas the Giant shines there.  At 4 power for 4 mana he's a good attacker, and with 3 toughness he can play defense if you get behind early.  He's just more versatile than the expedition, so I pick him.


  Pack 2 pick 2:

  My Pick: Torch Slinger
 
 

I knew Murderous Redcap Kennedy.  I worked with Murderous Redcap Kennedy.  And you, Sir, are no Murderous Redcap Kennedy.  But you're still good, and a 2 for 1.  It's another dang 5 drop in a sense.  But it's one that can totally play the role of a 3 drop instead when you just need more guys out there to block and trade, so it's fine.  Lot of nice black showing up, and a Step Lynx for some white player out there.  Unstable Footing is just the poor man's Spire Barrage.  It's a Lava Axe that actually stops at 5, while Spire Barrage can go up to 6 or more.  It could even pull a Spinal Tap and "go up to 11"! Still, I might want a wheeled Unstable Footing if I can't get enough Spire Barrage.


  Pack 2 pick 3:

  My Pick: Hellkite Charger
 

Hallelujah, and I say that as a non-religious man!  Here's my reward for cutting red so heavily, I obviously have two neighbors to the left with absolutely zero interest in playing red.  Nobody should ever pass this, should they?  It's bombtastic, it's bomb-a-riffic!  With haste, even!  And if you make your land drop the next turn, he can swing in for 10 even if you have nobody else. If you've managed to get in 5 damage earlier, swings for 5 then 10 from this guy can finish almost anyone who doesn't have air defense up (well, or removal).


  Pack 2 pick 4:

  My Pick: Molten Ravager
 

I look longingly at the Archmage Ascension, knowing I will never own such a bad card unless I get one in a draft pack full of unplayables.  Magma Rift is worse now that I have the dragon, it's a "no dragon for you!" card, or at best a "dragon is a turn late" card which coud still cost you a game.  Molten Ravager is quite decent in a mono-red deck.  I wouldn't want 4 or 5 of them, but 1 is fine.  Even when you're not pumping mana into his ability, he blocks well.  When you have leftover mana with nothing else to use it on, he can hit really hard, or block and take out most anything.  Bye bye, junk rare!  Aether Figment is a pretty good card too, and should also be picked over junk like the Ascenson.

  Pack 2 pick 5:

  My Pick: Bladetusk Boar
 

Part of me wants the Slaughter Cry so the deck has combat tricks available.  (It can also serve as a 3 point burn spell on an unblocked guy, occasionally.)  But Boars do just plain win games sometimes.  It gives me more creature count, though it's worrisome to have bigger guys and not enough 2 drops still.  Of course with "not enough guys" Slaughter Cry gets worse, too.  That Cliff Threader might cause me problems from someone.  But that's what god made burn spells for.

  Pack 2 pick 6:

  My Pick: Sky Ruin Drake
 
 

Nothing here is really great for my deck.  I suppose I could have taken Demolish for the sideboard.  This is a guy I wouldn't want to have to get through, or in a severe shortage of playables I could run him to fill out the deck - I sure hope the draft doesn't derail that badly though!  I thought about the Gem briefly, but it doesn't really go in my deck.


  Pack 2 pick 7:

  My Pick: Slaughter Cry 
 

Again I am tempted by the Zektar Shrine.  I'm not sure Slaughter Cry is the right pick here.  But it is good early or late, whereas a Shrine late can fail to activate before the game's over.  Also instants are surprising, enchantments are not.  Surprising your opponent is a Good Thing (tm).

  Pack 2 pick 8:

  My Pick: Torch Slinger
 
 

Eternity Vessel is FUN.  But it's rarely good in draft.  (I did win one game with one at Pat's Gaming Castle once, after sideboarding it in against a slower deck.)  I want to combo it with Sanguine Bond in constructed to kill people just by dropping lands, but I'll have to get some another time.  Ruinous Minotaur is quite tempting, but I snag Torch Slinger for his removal potential.  The Minotaur might be a better pick under some circumstances - he can certainly block and trade against almost any ground guy, and sometimes a hit or two for 5 damage gets someone in burn range.  I do already have one Torch Slinger, as well.  What do you all think of this pick?


  Pack 2 pick 9:

  My Pick: Zektar Shrine Expedition
 

And I get to have one anyway.  Though two of these is not unreasonable if I had snagged that other one.  This wheeling when I only passed two red cards in this pack suggests the guy who grabbed those Spire Barrage is probably in two colors by now, and either took one of the decent black cards or took the Into the Roil or Grazing Gladeheart. 


  Pack 2 pick 10:

  My Pick: Unstable Footing
 
 

Soul Stair Expedition is the strongest card in this pack.  Since I have ZERO spire barrages so far, I take the far inferior Unstable Footing, which I might well run as a finisher the way things are looking.


  Pack 2 pick 11:

  My Pick: Kraken Hatchling
 

If it takes me a while to get my damage through, having two Kraken Hatchling in the deck could be quite good.

  Pack 2 pick 12:

  My Pick: Soaring Seacliff
 

For the random extra evasion.  I forgot to even think about putting this in though, I totally could have had the junk rare of my dreams here!  I love a card this bad.  Normally in most games, when you've drawn an extra card SIX times, you're supposed to already be winning anyway, right?  This could totally be fun in Elder Dragon Highlander decks, though!  Pretty awesome in that format actually.


  Pack 2 pick 13:

  My Pick: Slaughter Cry
 

Not wild about two of these, maybe should have taken the land.  But this makes extra sure I'll have 22-23 playables.  Which wasn't hugely in doubt at this point, however!

  Pack 2 pick 14:

  My Pick: Ravenous Trap
 

Nice graveyard hoser for constructed.

  Pack 2 pick 15:

  My Pick: Swamp
 
 

At this point I have 18 red cards I'd be willing to play, so it shouldn't be hard to pick up 4-5 from the last pack.  Ideally I'll pick up more than that, and can upgrade some of the more marginal cards into better ones.  I am also desperately short on 1 and 2 drops, and don't have many 3 drops either.  Especially in games where I save the Torch Slingers to use kicker.  So let's see what pack 3 has to offer!


  Pack 3 pick 1:

  My Pick: Plated Geopede
 

One of the pros suggested this is the best two drop of all time.  It's certainly a staple for mono-red or red/white decks, and a much needed two drop, and a really good attacker.  I snapped this up happily.  Lots of goodies in this pack to be aware of - Terra Stomper's a brute, Hedron Crab might give someone a milling strategy, Windborne Charge is a surprise finisher to be aware of and hopefully not get caught by, and Baloth Cage Trap is a surprise blocker, the ony "creature with flash" in the format (well, plus the cobra trap).

  Pack 3 pick 2:

  My Pick: Spire Barrage
 

After pack 1 it's obvious I want to grab some of these the FIRST time around.  And hey, this pack is as barren of playables as the last one was juicy.  I certainly don't want another Slaughter Cry, and even those inferior non-red colors don't have much to offer.  Spidersilk Net is an ok sideboard card if you run into flyers.dec.

  Pack 3 pick 3:

  My Pick: Punishing Fire
 

Dang, a second Marsh Casualties?  Well, I've clearly established I'm not going down that path by now.  And Punishing Fire is quite good, even better if you catch someone with those lifegain lands in their deck (or a Grazing Gladeheart!)  Someone black is going to be pretty powerful though, probably the guy immediately to my left.  I'm passing this one the same direction as I passed the other one.  If hatedrafting were actually good, this would be the place to consider it.  But you play whoever "woulda got that card" either one match, or more often zero matches.  Whereas the Punishing Fire I get to play all three matches, no matter what!

  Pack 3 pick 4:

  My Pick: Spire Barrage
 

Hooray for a second Spire Barrage!  Whoever got that first Hedron Crab can get another one, so that's a bit more significant chance to see a milling deck.  Of course a deck with burn spells and torch slingers isn't too likely to get milled out by crabs.  Some other players might lose to it.

  Pack 3 pick 5:

  My Pick: Explorer's Scope
 

I wanted the seismic shudder also.  I don't have a ton of early drops for this yet (though it's fun on a Plated Geopede!), I know I'm wanting to play at least 18 land though.  This could potentially help my get out my dragon sooner, or grunts or Spire Barrage.  And if I'm past 5 it's still good for Spire Barrage, adding to the damage potential.  I took the Scope, maybe shudder was the better call?

  Pack 3 pick 6:

  My Pick: Goblin Shortcutter
 

Crab number three!  I wish I'd seen some replays from whoever ended up with these, might have been fun.  Goblin Shortcutter is a fine two drop, having the power matching its mana cost efficiency factor, and helping my guys get in for some more damage. Welcome to the team, dude!

  Pack 3 pick 7:

  My Pick: Tuktuk Grunts
 

I pondered the Quest for Pure Flame a bit.  But I'm suspicious of anything in sealed/draft that doesn't affect board state.  (Give me 12 defensive enchantments in a Johnny deck and we'll talk).  I'm not sure the quest is playable.  I'm also suspicious here of putting up my third 5 drop.  Plus I have two Spire Barrage, two Torch Slingers, and a dragon, we're looking a little top heavy!  Still, he does have haste & is a fourth ally, chances of having 4/4 grunts in play go up which ain't bad.  I decide to try the Grunts here over the quest.

  Pack 3 pick 8:

  My Pick: Spire Barrage
 

Spire Barrage number three?  Oh rapture, oh joy!  This is enough to make sure I should get one as a finisher most every game, and often get two.  I'm thinking the round 1 guy either definitely isn't in mono-red, or just didn't want TOO many of these in his deck.  Me, I'm happy with three.

  Pack 3 pick 9:

  My Pick: Seismic Shudder
 

The Windborne Charge tabled.  This was my opening pack that was crammed full of goodies though.  So I guess it's not surprising this crab made it to the secon pass around the table.  I'm fine with snagging a Seismic Shudder for my sideboard.

  Pack 3 pick 10:

  My Pick: Sunspring Expedition
 

Since there's nothing useful left now, I take away the card that'd interfere with my plan of bashing and burning someone down to zero quickly.

  Pack 3 pick 11:

  My Pick: Brave the Elements
 

Harrow's a good card, but Brave the Elements might interfere with my plans a little more.

  Pack 3 pick 12:

  My Pick: Expedition Map
 

I won't be playing this.  But someone else might have found it useful in their deck.

  Pack 3 pick 13:

  My Pick: Caravan Hurda
 

The ox could start blocking me one turn sooner, but this guy's lifegain makes him maybe a little more annoying.

  Pack 3 pick 14:

  My Pick: Caller of Gales
 

Probably shoulda taken the land here to build up my land collection.

  Pack 3 pick 15: Mountain
 

I took the land here, and it's in my color even!  I actually sideboarded this in during match 3. 
  My Pick:
 

Draft converter by Benjamin Peebles-Mundy.  Visit the draft converter today!

With maybe 27 cards to consider, it doesn't take me long to pick the 21 best.  I'm not too keen on Explorer's Scope for the 22nd spot over Mark of Mutiny or Slaughter Cry.  I decide to go with Slaughter Cry, as it can be removal, which Mark of Mutiny can't.  The Mark is best just at alpha strike time, when the Cry could be useful at any point in the game.  I definitely don't want 17 land here, as my dragon likes a high land count, and so do my Spire Barrages and even my Molten Ravager.  Plus I have a high curve, with 3.48 average casting cost, my Grunts won't come out in a timely fashion if I miss land drops, and my Torch Slingers are better when I can kick them.  Even the Plated Geopede likes a high land count, so 18 it is.  I've actually seen some of Olivier Ruel's drafts lately where he's run 19.  I didn't consider that here, but perhaps I should have. 

 

All in all, my curve here is way higher than I'd like.  I do wish I had more Plated Geopedes.  But I do have 6 burn spells and two torch slingers, my boars and spire barrage should be good in games that go longer, and that dragon can win for me by himself in any game where they don't have an answer for him.  And of course mono-color means the deck will perform more consistently.  So I should be able to take down some games with this one.

Round 1, Game 1

Unfortunately MTGO seems to have lost the replay for this one, so I'll have to summarize from what I can remember.  I kept a promising opening hand in this one that had 3 mountains & Teetering Peaks, plus Goblin Bushwhacker, Bladetusk Boar, and Spire Barrage.  Just one land draw by turn 5 and I can cast all of that, an easy keep.  I decided to get greedy with the Teetering Peaks, rather than play it out turn 1 and lose its bonus to avoid the "comes into play tapped" tempo loss.  I have no 3 drop, and two of the three I could draw often want to be played turn 5 anyway.  So I just drop a mountain turn 1, turn 2 I play the Bushwhacker with kicker and get in for 2 with haste.  Turn 3 I drop the Peaks and hit him for 3, down to 15.  So far so good.  He still has no turn 4 play other than a land drop, bringing him to two forests and two islands.  Supposedly the worst two colors in Zendikar, right?  But I played green/blue in the release event I won and the two headed giant we kicked butt in at the Pro Tour, so you can certainly have a decent deck in any colors.

My opponent did start to tap his lands, but then untapped them and passed to me.  If you're playing a very strong player, this is quite possibly a deliberate bluff.  But against most players, most of the time, it's probably exactly what it looks like - he has a playable creature in his hand, but he also has an instant spell he decided to try and use instead.  The correct play for me?  Attack for 1 and pass back, I'm under no pressure.  Better to cast my Bladetusk Boar after he taps out to play something.  What I actually did?  Ran my Boar right into a Summoner's Bane - even giving him a 2/2 he could never have on the board if I'd tried to play around it.

He played out Umara Raptor next turn, and it was all downhill from there.  My hand started filling up with 5 mana Tuktuk Grunts and Spire Barrages, with only my starting 4 land in play.  He got out Joraga Bard, Oran Rief Survivalist, and I think maybe he had another blue guy and/or an Into the Roil.  I took out one guy with Slaughter Cry on the Bushwhacker.  I'm not sure if saving the Boar a turn would have gained me enough time in this one, but certainly with that mistake it was nowhere close.  I did see enough to figure him for an allies theme, and I got manascrewed enough to think 19 lands might be better in this deck.  This was unusually poor luck, as with a 4 land starter, any land draw lets me cast my entire deck apart from the dragon.  But I went 6-7 turns on the draw, without drawing one land.  I'm not going to do the math, but the odds of this are in the ballpark of 1 in 100.  Worse, an above average portion of my draws were from my selection of six spells that cost 5 mana, if I'd drawn more 1-4 mana spells I could have held on longer.  So, a remarkably unusual draw doesn't prove you should change your deck.  But even in more typical draws, 19 land gives me more draws where I hit every land drop and play my 5 and 6 drops on turns 5 and 6, rather than a turn or two late. 

Round 1, Game 2

I'd shown him Slaughter Cry, so I liked the idea of taking that out for a land & letting him play around a card I no longer even had in my deck anyway.  This was to become a recurring theme in my sideboarding in every game 2.  My only change this time was to swap out Slaughter Cry, and swap in mountain number 19.  Good thing I'd seen Ruel (and I think lsv) running 19 lands in an occasional draft so I know it's "ok"!

My starting hand on the play is 3 lands, one of them the Teetering Peaks again, plus Burst Lightning, Highland Berserker, Bladetusk Boar, and Hellkite Charger.  With 19 land I'm totally comfortable keeping this one.  I have a solid 2 drop, the boar is likely to come out on turn 4, and whenever I hit 6 mana I've got a great finisher.  Plus cheap removal buys me time if I need it.  Again I hold back the peaks for a damage boost on my 2 drop.  My first draw is a mountain, guaranteeing me Boar mana, things are looking good!  Turn 3 I draw Plated Geopede, so I can use peaks for the 4 point attack and play another two drop.  He has Into the Roil for my Berserker though, and takes no damage.  Still, I'm happy to see him use that up without kicker.  After combat I drop the Geopede, as I'd rather have him out there than replay the Berserker.

After he just drops another forest, I draw another mountain - one short of dragon mana, plus at least two turns in a row of landfall for the Geopede!  I hit him down to 17, and play out the boar while he doesn't have Summoner's Bane or Cancel mana available yet.  On his turn, he taps out all his lands for a Joraga Bard.  I draw - mountain number six!  Life is good.  I make my land drop and swing in for 6, figuring if he blocks my 3/3 Geopede with his 1/4 Bard, I can decide whether I want to Burst Lightning it, or save the spell.  I'd probably save it, but it can't hurt me to swing in here - it could let him hit me down from 20 to 19, which hardly matters.  As it happens, in the face of 5 untapped red mana, he lets both my guys through to hit him to 11, so it was a good semi-bluff.  Quite possibly he was playing around the Slaughter Cry.  Of course he doesn't know he's in Dragon Trouble Time and has to hoard every life point he can.  I play out the Berserker and pass, with Burst Lightning mana up if I need it.

He plays a Paralyzing Grasp on my Boar - it is a creature that needs to be answered & it has him on a 4 turn clock with the Geopede damage he let through.  While it might help him more on the dragon, he has haste & I'd be swinging for 8 unblockable damage if he held back the grasp, unless he had a flyer or reach creature to chump block this turn.  He plays out another Forest, giving him kicked Vines of Vastwood mana available but no blue, his single island tapped out.  This makes Mr. The Dragon do a little happy dance, as there's no counterspells or even a life-saving Into the Roil possible.

I draw into another land.  I can swear my Plated Geopede is purring, and my Hellkite now is grinning like a Cheshire Cat, 'cause he knows he could swing twice on turn 7!  I tap out to launch him into the air.  What's the play here, do I attack with just the dragon, or do either or both of the ground pounders rush in below him as well?

 

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Okay, he either has no answer or stalling tactics for the dragon next turn - in which case I win no matter what - or he has something.  It's only in the latter case that my decision might matter, so that's all we have to consider.  We can leave him at 6 life, or we can leave him at 3-4 life while possibly sacrificing the Highland Berserker, depending on how he blocks.  With Burst Lightning in hand, 3-4 life means he's dead next turn even if he answers the dragon.  (Barring some unlikely plays, like Island, 3 mana spider to chump dragon, Cancel on Burst Lightning.)  If I leave him at 6 and he deals with or even delays the dragon, he gets at least one extra turn to try and stabilize & draw answers, possibly more if he has that spider with kicker to kill my guy.  Getting him in kill range is more than worth the loss of the Berserker, who is of no other significant use here.  I swing with the whole team.

He puts the Bard on my Berserker to kill it, then thinks a moment and moves it to the Geopede to keep his life total a point higher.  Plus he uses Vines of Vastwood with kicker, so he might as well be killing the bigger threat anyway.  I get in 7 damage, putting him at 4.  On his turn, he plays out a Grazing Gladeheart, and drops an island, going back up to 6.  He passes back to me, and I have two different ways to get fatal damage in.  Which should I use here?

 

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The fact that he has Cancel mana open that could stop the Burst Lightning from getting the final damage through just helps make it more obvious what the correct play is.  Even if he didn't, the double swing with the dragon is correct.  If he has a second Into the Roil in his deck, next turn we can hit for 5 hasty dragon damage plus the lightning if he doesn't make another land drop, if he does we can likely kill him the turn after.  If we swing with just 5 with the dragon and don't pay for his ability, so we can "have Burst Lightning open", it can't do fatal damage on its own, so who cares?  Plus trading one use of an activated ability for an actual card from my opponent's hand is a great trade, trading cards one for one (like Burst Lightning for Cancel) isn't nearly as good a bargain.

But even if all his lands were tapped out here, the primary principle is that I want to kill him with just the dragon if I can, and play the Burst Lightning only if I absolutely need it to win.  He didn't see Burst Lightning in game 1.  Giving him less information about what's in my deck is always good, giving out more free information is bad.  I swing with the dragon and tap out to activate his brutal, brutal ability.  This draws the concession.  Either my opponent hadn't read the Hellkite's ability, or he was hoping I might not use it & give him another turn to topdeck. 

I believe a well trained monkey could win a game where you get a turn 6 hasty dragon on the play.  I am a little bit smarter than a well trained monkey, and I believe this proves it.  So it's on to the deciding game!

Round 1, game 3


I decided my sideboading plan for game 2 was fine, and keep the same 40.  My opener is four mountains plus Molten Ravager, Inferno Trap, and Tuktuk Grunts - spells I could cast on turns 3, 4, and 5.  A reasonably balanced keeper, though it'd sure make me happy to draw a 2 drop.  My opponent starts out with a turn 2 Oran-Rief Survivalist, while I topdeck 3 lands in a row.  Still, he's only gotten in for 2 damage by the time I drop my Molten Ravager.  He swings in with the Survivalist and I decide to block.  If I draw out Vines here I'm keeping my life at 18, and my Inferno Trap is more likely to resolve successfully rather than him saving a guy with Vines later - maybe a bigger guy who's more of a threat.  The attack turns out to be a bluff, and I saved myself two damage there.  He passes back with 4 land open and no play.  Could he have Summoner's Trap in hand again?  With no creature I can cast this turn, I don't have to outguess him, this time.

I topdeck yet another land, and decide to swing in with the Ravager and start racing.  I pump it 4 times, and then he plays Into the Roil with kicker, giving me a nice setback on tempo.  On his turn he taps out for Seascape Aerialist, pumping the Survivalist to hit me down to 15.  I draw into a second Tuktuk Grunts and play my first one.  Would you attack here, or hold back?

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I could hold back, hoping he'll leave the Aerialist home and I could either trade with the Survivalist or take only 3 this turn instead of 5, keeping the Grunts alive to pump up to 4/4.  But what happens if he plays another Ally next turn?  I take 6 in the air, and suddenly I'm down 20 to 9.  If I swing in, I'm going to be down to 10 or 9, but I'll have him at 17 this turn with me able to start swinging in for 7 a turn the turn after.  That seems a little more like a race, and with me hitting land drops steadily, my deck's big Spire Barrages or Dragon could help me finish him if I get him in range.  Even my Ravager could get in a huge hit. Also I have Inferno Trap, so I can cut down his damage dealing potential with that.  I decide to swing in for 3 with the thought that next turn I might drop the other grunts, swing for 7, and leave 1 mana open to Trap the survivalist if he hits me with both guys again.

He doesn't have the ally, and just swings for 5.  But after combat, he drops a River Boa.  This complicates things, as my "swing for 7" plans are off the table.  With him blocking the bigger grunts each turn I can't race, and need to hold back and play defense.  I could play out another blocker, but I decide to hold all my mana open to be able to play the Trap at full price.  This turns out to be the right play, as he has Umara Raptor next turn and could have hit me for 6 in the air.  At this point he's got 3 forests and 3 islands, but he tapped two of the islands for Raptor, so I know he can't Cancel my trap.  On the other hand, he could have been leaving double green up for Vines of Vastwood, in which case I'm dead.  I wait for him to declare attackers, then I successfully shoot down the 4/4 Survivalist, and I only take 2.  On my turn, I draw Goblin Shortcutters. What's the play here?

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I decide the "swing for 7" plan is back on the table, at least for this turn.  I tap out to play my second grunts, and the Shortcutter targetting that pesky Mire Boa. We know he doesn't have vines or he would have played it in response to my trap last turn and won.  I may be at a precarious 8 life, but this could bring him down to 10, and that's still a close race.  With the Shortcutter there to chump block next turn I'm only on a 3 turn clock so far if he attacks with everyone.  If he blocks with the Raptor, I've taken out his one evasive threat without even losing a guy, and he doesn't have me on a clock at all.  So that's pretty good for me.  He sensibly decides not to block, and I take him down to 10.  At the end of my turn, he has Harrow to bring him up to 7 mana.

He holds the River Boa back to block, and swings with his other two guys.  I chump with the Shortcutter as he's done his job, and giving me an extra turn in the race is more important than anything else he could do now.  On my turn I topdeck a very welcome Punishing Fire, that should be able to shut down his Raptor and let me keep racing.  My Ravager can block his Aerialist, so I swing in with both Grunts.  The Boa blocks, and I have him down to 7.  I drop the Ravager after combat and pass.  There's a slight chance he the card on top of his deck is Vines or a counterspell, and I should burn out the Raptor now.  But I want him to make his decisions based on incomplete information, so I take the chance and hold the Fire back.

On his turn, he swings with just the Raptor.  I think a moment, and decide the worst possibility I could be dealing with is if he's drawn into his Vines.  If I try to burn the Raptor and he has Vines in response, I die.  On the other hand, if I hold back and he tries to pump for the kill, I play Punishing Fire in response and I'm sitting pretty.  The cost of protecting myself from this worst-case scenario is letting him hit me down from 6 to 4 if it turns out he just has nothing.  That still gives me two turns to outrace him - plus if I get in for 5, Fire can go to his dome and finish the job.  I hold back and wait for Vines, which doesn't come, and it's a 7 to 4 race now.  After combat he drops a largely irrelevant Ior Ruin Expedition, then a land.  Then a quite relevant chump blocker in the form of Oran-Rief Recluse.  That thing can even buy him a turn against a topdecked Hellkite Charger, as well as blunting the impact of any swarm of Grunts I send his way.  Did I blow it by letting him get in an extra 2 damage here?

My next turn brings me a very welcome Grunts Number Three!  Things to like about this guy...  A) pump grunts #1, B) pump grunts #2, C) haste!  I tap 5 to play the Grunts.  What's the play here? Do I drop that last mountain, and who do I attack with?

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Normally when I have plenty of land out already, I like to hold back one land so I'm always bluffing the possibility of an extra spell, which might make my opponent overcautious.  But in this situation, I might be wanting to pump the Ravager and play the Punishing Fire, so I drop the extra land.  Looking back now, I can see that 3 land would have been fine and a fourth doesn't help me any.  If I don't play the Fire before next turn, 3 mana is enough to kill anyone the Ravager might fight, on offense or defense.  If I play Fire, I can have 1 mana open or 2 for the Ravager.  That's not enough to kill the Recluse or the Aerialist anyway, the Boa doesn't matter much, but if I want to force him to spend regeneration mana 1 is enough.  And the Raptor wouldn't block me if it could, and it can't anyway, and on his turn I can't block it, either!  If there was a specific 4 mana spell I needed to bluff here, droping the land might have some point to it.

Ok, that's the nitpicky detail.  More to the point, how did I attack?  Charging in with all 4 guys seems exciting, with 16 potential damage swinging in if I pump the Ravager four times, or 14 damage plus 2 burn, to his 7 life.  Clearly he has to do plenty of blocking to stay alive.  But he will stay alive.  If he lets any two of my guys in, that adds up to 7, so we will block three of my guys - and he's not likely to choose the 5/5 as the one to let through, making my Punishing Fire fatal, since blocking a smaller guy won't let his blocker live anyway.  I might have done a little better in this scenario had I held back the mountain, since he might think letting in the 3/3 grunts and the Ravager was ok, the most I could deal there is 6.  Then I could pump Ravager twice, dealing 5 that way, then drop the mountain after combat and Fire him out.  This is, however, gambling on a specific misplay from him, which is a bad idea.  (And if he's super sharp, he'd realize a Burst Lightning from me could kill him there even if I don't have the extra land in hand!)

If I swing with all four guys, he's going to untap with Umara Raptor and River Boa still alive, 4 power of attackers against my 4 life.  Punishing Fire should win me the game by stopping his Raptor.  But if he topdecks any sort of combat trick or counterspell, I could be just dead there.  I don't like giving him that much chance.

I should note that I could try to tap his River Boa by hitting it with Punishing Fire to force it to regenerate (which taps it), and then swing in with four guys.  But then I can only guarantee 5 damage still, and he can swing back with 4 but without me having the Punishing Fire available any more, so that plan is just worse.

If I attack with three guys, then he can block with Oran-Rief Recluse and River Boa, keeping his Aeriast alive for 6 power of attackers for his return attack against my one blocker.  At that point, if he has any kind of bounce spell, my Fire will only take his attack down from 6 to 4, and I lose.  So I really like the idea of having two blockers back for safety.

What happens if I attack with two guys?  One of them he blocks for free with Boa.  The other one either brings his life total down where I need less damage forced through on the next attack, or he loses a blocker, which is also good for me.  That's the route I choose.  Attacking with just one guy runs it into the Boa, and attacking with nobody doesn't accomplish anything productive.  I charge in with the 5 and 4 point grunts, my smaller guys block just as well and I want to maximize damage if he lets one guy in.

He blocks the 5/5 guy with his Recluse, then goes to double-block my 4/4 guy with his Boa and Aerialist, to go for the 1 for 1 trade.  I'm evaluating whether I want to throw Fire on the Boa, making it regenerate and deal no damage, so I can kill his Aerialist free, when he removes it from blocking, thinking better of it and just blocking with Boa.  That's fine with me.

On his turn, he drops an island, which I'm guessing was his topdeck for the turn.  Though he hasn't missed a land drop, so his one card in hand could still be a spell he just drew.  He could hold the land back to bluff and give me less info, but that doesn't let him have a shot at popping his Expedition for extra cards next turn - if he gets another turn.  Still, he should have dropped the land after combat rather than before, to keep me guessing more.  Just as I should have dropped my land after combat last turn, or in my case maybe not at all.

He swings in with just the raptor, and this time rather than go own to 2 where I'm one hit away from dead, I throw Punishing Fire at it.  It's good, and I stay at 4 life.

On my turn, I topdeck a Plated Geopede.  With one more potential chump blocker, and him needing to hit me with both of his remaining guys to deal fatal damage, I feel a lot safer charging in with 4 guys than I did last turn.  He has less blockers, he's only got one card in hand - the only scenarios where I get in trouble here are pretty far-fetched.  Just for the sake of argument, if he runs two Into the Roil (since I know one is in his graveyard), and if he runs Lethargy Trap, he could trap me this turn, topdeck Into the Roil to bounce my Geopede, and swing in for exactly lethal.  He has to make sure to block my Ravager with his River Boa.  Or I guess he could have a Cobra Trap, though I'd' think that've been cast earlier unless he just topdecked it.  Anyway these are pretty unlikely scenarios given what I saw in the first two games, though there's a small chance there's some surprise waiting.  Without a topdeck to go with it, though, it shouldn't be fatal for me - even a Baloth Pit Trap would need some backup here.

As it happens, he blocks my 5/5 and my 4/4.  I pump the Ravager four times durng Declare Blockers phase, and I wait for a bounce spell...  He apparently has no answer in hand, and I've won match one!  That's at least one booster pack earned so far.

Analysis

I recently read an article by Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa on "Overthinking".  Then, ironically, I find myself feeling like "I was overthinking on that game, I shoulda just killed the Raptor a turn earlier, and been at 6 life in a much easier situation."  On reviewing the game, I'm not so sure that's the case.  I am more curious about my decision to make the first attack with the Grunts now, however.

Paulo's article resonated with me because it related to some thoughts I'd had on related issues, though of course he has a different angle on it (and a more experienced one).  My feeling is, one of the key ways in which the pros differ from the schmoes is that they play around instant spells fairly effectively.  They don't always get it right, but they often do.  Whereas an average magic player will walk right into a punishing instant spell almost every dang time.  (It does make playing instants against average level Magic players a lot of fun!  Though keep watch for the times when you both have one read to go.)

This does open pros up to some misplays that regular players wouldn't "overthink" themselves into.  If you try to bluff an attack with a generic 2/2 into your opponent's 3/3, pros will sometimes assume you have the trick and let it through, especially if they're on a high life total.  Whereas amateurs will almost always block you with their bigger guy.  Paulo mentioned situations in his article where he lightning-helixed his own guy, just to get around a possible worst-case scenario that was fairly improbable!

In analyzing our games, though, it's tempting to oversimplify.  First I could say "I won that game, so my plays were right".  That's obviously the wrong way to think - sometimes you can make very bad mistakes, and win anyway by being lucky and/or having a better deck.

Second, I could look and say "Given what he turned out to have, here's how my plays would have worked out if I did them the other way."  That's interesting to think through, but still too narrow.  You were only up against that specific series of draws and plays from your opponent this time.  Even if you play against the same deck again, you're going to face different draws.  The goal isn't to find the plays that do the best job of beating that specific draw he got this time.  You want the plays that beat as many as possible of the different situations this opponent could produce with his deck.  Also the even wider range of situations other decks might throw out there against you.

So when you're sculpting the final 1-3 turns of your game to try and maximize your chances of a win, you want to find the play that will win in the  widest variety of situations.  (Weighted somewhat towards the situations likeliest to actually arise, of course!)  Imagine that your play in a draft game depends primarily on your opponent's next topdeck, and you have one play that will win against 85% of every known card in Zendikar if he draws them.  Odds are heavily in your favor to win, right?  But suppose there's another play that wins against 98% of the cards he could legally be topdecking.  That's the better play, right?  Occasionally you'll be so in control of a game that you can guarantee a next-turn win against 100% of everything he could possibly have.  When that kind of play is available, you want to make it!

So it isn't right to analyze your game after you made the 85% play, and say "I played right because I won" and not learn and improve.  You want to spot that 98% or 100% play and learn not to miss it next time.

There's worse traps.  Sometimes you make the right play and lose.  Sometimes there's even a "worse" play that actually would have won, in that particular game.  You don't want to "learn" to make the worse play, because if you face that type of situation 10 more times, and use the worse tactic each time, you'll lose more often from it than you win, in the long run.  So if I look back at a game I lose, and say "I could have gone for a play that put the odds 95-5 in my favor, or made a 50/50 play"...  And I notice that the 50/50 play would have worked better this time because my opponent lucksacked his one out in his whole deck or something...  I should still recognize that I made the play that maximized my chances in that particular situation, and I should do the same kind of play next time.

I think the ideal way to analyze "overthinking" comes in terms of what I'll call "The Monkey Zone".  Assume our trained monkey, or his stunt double (me), by default plays as if the opponent has no instant spells, and isn't going to play a game changing bomb next turn, so every turn we can pretty much play as if what's on the board is all we have to figure out to make the best play.  And we make whatever that play seems to be, every time.  In some games, this will be good enough to win, and we'll win on a certain turn.

Now, in a game the monkey is going to win, unless he just wins by inches, there's probably a certain amount of slowdown of offense and skipped blocs you could throw into his gameplay and still win, whether through mistakes or through playing more cautiously, to play around instants he might or might not have, etc.  This entire range of still winning plays I will call "The Monkey Zone".  The center of it is exactly what the trained monkey would want to do, every change you make moves you towards the edges of the zone.  Cross the line and go outside the Monkey Zone, and you've discovered a game-losing sequence of plays.

Sometimes the strongest, most likely to win sequence is not right in the middle of the Monkey Zone, but off center a bit.  Other times the monkey is actually totally right.  One key thing to note here is that generally the game turn you win on will be smallest right in the middle of the zone.  Winning on an earlier turn is good, because there's less chance for your opponent to draw outs that way.  However staying right in the center means you're not playing around anything, so you're often taking the most risks to shoot for the fastest win.

So, I think the ideal to shoot for when figuring out "what's the pro play here" is to look for plays that move you off the middle of the monkey zone enough to improve your safety, without moving you TOO close to the edges where you're near (or at) game-losing sequences.  In a race situation, turns are a good thing to look at.  An ideal "improvement on the monkey's plan" has you shooting for a win on the same turn the monkey would have won on, but with more safety.  Maybe you're gonna hit your opponent down to -2 instead of the -5 the monkey would, and you protected a guy with a key ability the monkey would have risked.  A plan that wins one turn later than the monkey, but eliminates some huge risks the quicker plan has, can also be good.  If your plan is going to win 2 turns slower than the monkey, it starts getting more dubious, and 3 or more just starts looking worse and worse.  There are always exceptions, of course.  If you can throw a Mind Sludge that wipes out your opponent's 5 card hand, or set up some kind of hard or soft lock, that can be well worth delaying your kill turn by multiple rounds, because you've established such a high level of safety.  Same with a Wrath of God that takes out your 2 evasive creatures - and 5 of your opponent's.

But in a close race, we want to look for changes that improve our situation significantly if something goes wrong, while not making us fight much worse than the monkey would fight if everything goes our way anyway.  (Which sometimes, it actually will!)

Well.  With all that in mind...  My first reaction to the first Tuktuk Grunts attack is, in the late game if I'd held back to block early, I could have saved at least one 2 point hit from the Aerialist.  Maybe even 5 if he was shy about offering a trade with his 3/3, but let's assume 2.  Now look at the late game situations, and imagine how much safer I'd have been with an extra 2 life.  He would have had an extra 3, but I had the ability to deal massively more damage (which my deck is better at in late game than his, in general).  So I could have made that extra 3 up, especially given more safety to attack a little more often and with more guys.  I might even have polished him off a turn sooner, giving him one less chance to topdeck a way out.

Sure, that's true with the way the game went this time.  It looks actually like I could have won with either decision, this time.  But as I mentioned above, I saw a worst-case scenario where he had a third ally to play.  In that case, I would block nobody, and I threw away a potential 3 damage I could have safely dealt.  Improving the position I'd be in when the worst-case scenario happens is valuable, because that's the situation where I would need to fight the most for every inch of advantage.  So I think that play may have been correct.

Now look at taking the hit from 6 to 4.  There was an additional alternative I missed there, which is to cast Punishing Fire on his turn, even if I think Vines of Vastwood is highly likely to be in his hand.  That way, if he saves the bird he's not pumping it on the same turn he's going to attack me.  This scenario fails unless I hold back another creature though, because he can just lose the bird, swing with both his ground guys, see which one I block, and Vines the other one.  So it's not too bad that I missed that idea.  The straightforward idea of blasting his bird when he doesn't have vines, either on his turn or mine (and preferably on mine so he has one less draw step to get protection for his bird) fits with the whole "don't overthink it and your life total would be higher" kind of vibe, though.  And in this game, even a turn later, blasting the bird just plain worked.  In most games, you can "blast the bird" and get away with it, as removal is dodged a minority of the time.

But if my theory for what could happen the minority of the time comes true here, I totally lose the game, immediately.  Whereas if the "more likely I'm just gonna take 2 damage I didn't need to take" theory comes true, the game continues and I can keep trying to win, with good chances in fact.  Also the Vines is something I know for sure to be in his deck, it's not even a hypothetical that he could have one.

I thought this line of reasoning breaks down though because next turn I DID punish the birdie.  If my opponent had the vines, or drew it next turn, didn't I just make one game-saving play only to pass up saving myself again next turn, going down to 2 being better than losing?

Well, with the benefit of hindsight, my play actually turns out to be better than I thought it was.  Consider that he had 3 cards in his hand on my turn when I attacked him down to 7 and didn't blast the bird.  Up to 4 cards by his turn when he hit me for that "free" 2 damage because I declined to roast his turkey.

Compare this with the turn when I actually DID barbecue his chicken.  At this point he's down to 1 card in hand.  So chances of him having no answer are significantly better at that point.  Maybe my play was "correct" on that basis.  Also going from 6 to 4 doesn't have the risk of a situation where I'm committed to doing fatal damage in one turn or else I lose.  Going from 4 to 2 does carry that risk, if he can protect his bird from my removal.

Looking back, actually, I could imagine this opponent having wanted to pump a defender to take out my largest Grunts if he'd had vines, rather than saving it to try for a quick kill.  Which suggests I could have thought earlier "He doesn't have vines" if I felt my opponent was trying to play more controlling rather than racing.  But that's a pretty risky assumption to make.

Anyway a pure aggro deck is easier to play than trickier, slower decks, and gives you fewer decisions to make.  But I hope I've shown here, they don't exactly run on auto-pilot either.  They do have significant decisions to make on some turns, and some of those can even involve really complex reasoning at times!

That's it for now, tune in again soon to see how I did in rounds two and three!

9 Comments

osterejer!! by Anonymous (not verified) at Mon, 12/21/2009 - 14:20
Anonymous's picture

osterejer, flæske-flæske-flæskesværd, carlsberg (doh doh doh)

What is this practice to by Anonymous (not verified) at Mon, 12/21/2009 - 14:30
Anonymous's picture

What is this practice to leave rounds 2 and 3 for later? Is it sooo difficult to put it all in one article?

It may have only been Round by middleman35 (not verified) at Mon, 12/21/2009 - 18:45
middleman35's picture

It may have only been Round 1, but that was 6000+ words of top notch analysis on a single match. I'm happy to wait to get analysis of that level.

Worst colours by whatisfgh at Mon, 12/21/2009 - 14:52
whatisfgh's picture

"Supposedly the worst two colors in Zendikar, right? But I played green/blue in the release event I won and the two headed giant we kicked butt in at the Pro Tour, so you can certainly have a decent deck in any colors."

To be fair, as I read it, most pros think that green/blue are the weakest colours in *draft* (barring over/under drafting of course), while many consider (at least when it was cool to write about it) green to be one of the strongest in *sealed*. not sure about 2hg though. Even if it was a 2hg draft it could have very different dynamics of card evaluations.

Green/Blue in sealed by Felorin at Wed, 12/23/2009 - 15:17
Felorin's picture

I think that's a reasonable analysis. Since sealed is often slower than draft, green's big fatties can shine more, and blue has more time to get going with Windrider Eels and maybe a Living Tsunami. Those guys have been great for me in sealed, as have all of the Baloths. I had one deck with the common, the uncommon, and the mythic rare one, plus a Sphinx of Jwar Island - that was the release event I won. Even Roil Elemental is better in sealed, you may find yourself up against more decks that are low on removal enough for him to survive. I still ran Savage Silhouette and Vines of Vastwood with him to make sure, though!

Regarding the raptor.... The by Calavera (not verified) at Mon, 12/21/2009 - 15:17
Calavera's picture

Regarding the raptor.... The play was definitely not to wait to kill it until he was in his attack phase!!!
Vines of the vastwood kicked kills you there. as does primal force (or whatever it is called). you needed to kill it on your turn or after he had already attacked for the turn.

Wow by moerutora (not verified) at Mon, 12/21/2009 - 23:23
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That was long. I had to skip some paragraphs. Too much. Seemed like an intense game.

Nice article, but waaay too by Anonymous (not verified) at Tue, 12/22/2009 - 08:34
Anonymous's picture

Nice article, but waaay too long for just one round. I think the main problem here is that you go through all the plays that obviously shouldn't be made and discuss all of them.
Maybe you should just stick to the right play and potentialy the other viable play options and explain why you did whatever you did in that situation, rather than going through a dozen or so, irrelevant/close to impossible scenarios.

Also, Nice deck! must be nice when mono red goes that well.

Good article. This is a way by Charlie (not verified) at Tue, 12/22/2009 - 11:34
Charlie's picture

Good article. This is a way better analysis of a draft than the ones you pay to read about on Star City. Keep up the good work.