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By: Sebastian Gua, Sebastian Gua
Sep 15 2011 11:26am
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Hiya and welcome back! As 20th September 2011 looms near, let’s take a look at the current banned and restricted list and discuss what might be moving in and out of the list.

Ancestral VisionAncient DenBitterblossomChrome Mox

Dark DepthsDread ReturnGlimpse of NatureGolgari Grave-Troll

Great FurnaceHypergenesisJace, the Mind SculptorMental Misstep

Seat of the SynodSensei's Divining TopStoneforge MysticSkullclamp

Sword of the MeekTree of TalesUmezawa's JitteValakut, the Molten Pinnacle

Vault of Whispers

 

This was the initial list WotC came up with prior to PT: Philly. No idea if they decided it in haste or considerable thoughts were put into it. I compiled the decks that were 18 or better from our mothership.

This shows a distinct lack of control decks in the format. Could the ban list be a mistake that combo dominated the tournament and ran rampant? What are the cards likely changes from the list and create a more balanced field?

Ancient DenChrome MoxGreat FurnaceSeat of the Synod

SkullclampTree of TalesVault of Whispers

First, we have Affinity. It was the most affected due to the explosiveness of the deck created by the insane synergy from Mirrodin block. The artifact lands were as if spells to lower casting costs for Frogmite and Myr Enforcer and providing fodder for Arcbound Ravager or Atog. Skullclamp was the absolute nuts in drawing gas for the deck. Chrome Mox accelerates Affinity even if no card imprints on it. A turn 1 double Frogmite would more than negate the downside of not producing mana. After the banning, Affinity slowed down considerably and I think they would still be locked up. I noticed Disciple of the Vault was not banned and if WotC pulls them down, it would be the most popular aggro deck. Possible turn 3 kill by aggro is not how they want it to be.  

My prediction: Stay.

 

Ancestral VisionBitterblossomDark DepthsJace, the Mind Sculptor

Mental MisstepSensei's Divining TopStoneforge MysticSword of the Meek

Umezawa's Jitte

Next, we have Control Variants. After the Affinity menace we have Faeries. The pesky Faeries took over the mantle of chasing players away from competitive events (takes mosquito swatter out *SMACK*SMACK*SMACK*) as it dominated week in week out. Ancestral Vision and Jace, the Mind Sculptor gave the deck a way to dig for solutions and Bitterblossom fills the role of buying time to switch strategy between control or aggro depending on matchup. Umezawa's Jitte on any token produced is just piling on the cheat factor (SMACK!). From the blink of an eye it would change from control to aggro when it reaches near inevitability. Able to have counter on a stick in Spellstutter Sprite makes Bitterblossom an MVP for filling various positions on the field.  

Other similar deck was Dark Depths/Sword of the Meek. It was a hybrid deck that merged 2 control strategies that tries to assemble the combo pieces and win. Dark Depths, Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, and Vampire Hexmage for a second turn 20/20 indestructible flapping token. Any skill required? Yes. Your opponent’s shuffling skills. Sword of the Meek and Thopter Foundry provided a secondary kill condition and unless there is removal to exile Sword of the Meek, prepare to curse and swear for a month. Any skill required? Yes. You bending over again and again.

I think the Mental Misstep and Jace, the Mind Sculptor are not over powered in the format. Banning Mental Misstep was due to Legacy where it is really good. Jace, the Mind Sculptor does not dominate Legacy as it is not a huge threat and the diversity of the field can manage it better compared to Standard but if unbanned, they can be played in combo decks too giving them more reach and we do not want combo decks playing Ancestral Vision alongside Jace, the Mind Sculptor. It is a delicate situation.

Stoneforge Mystic seems like a fair card right now for Modern. If Jace, the Mind Sculptor remains banned, Stoneforge Mystic could be pulled down. It provides aggro decks with a faster clock against combo decks and even with a turn 2 Stoneforge Mystic, you might just lose being tapped out. For mirror matches, it should end pretty fast whoever plays it first and not slow the format down too much.

Sensei's Divining Top is a no do to paper tournaments. It is good against combo decks with Counterbalance but the constant spinning took too much time for mirror matches. I think the environment is fast enough for it to see play and keep combo in check.

My prediction: Except for Mental Misstep, Stoneforge Mystic, and Sensei's Divining Top, the rest would stay in the list.

 

Dread ReturnGlimpse of NatureGolgari Grave-Troll

HypergenesisValakut, the Molten Pinnacle

Now we have combo. These are cards that made their decks overpowered and enabled fast kills. By banning them, their respective decks would lose their engine and no choice but to play fair or abandon playing it. Dread Return and Golgari Grave-Troll for Dredge, Glimpse of Nature for Elves, Hypergenesis a one card deck, and Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle for Scapeshift/Prismatic Omen. Players want a diversified field and not a diversified COMBO field.

Player A: Ooo, which combo deck to play?

Player B: No need for control or aggro cause we have 10 different combo decks to choose from.

Me: No meaning...

My prediction: Stay. 

 

So what now? If things stay this way all we will see are Zoo and Affinity for aggro, Splinter Twin and Storm for combo, and Some Level Blue for control. Cloudpost decks seem to be manageable and I think we would not see much change from it. It is the same as Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic banned in Standard and Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle did not dominate the field. The deck is fair compared to combo decks and loses to the speed of Zoo and Affinity if it chokes. Maybe restrict Vesuva to keep it in check if there are changes to the banned and restricted list.

How about the BIG 2 combo decks? Except for the land base, a Storm deck does not play rares unless it is Pyromancer Ascension storm. The rituals and combo pieces are commons which is quite difficult to pinpoint what to ban. Maybe banning Ponder, Preordain, or Peer Through Depths might disrupt the deck consistency but there are other card drawing spells so the deck is more or less here to stay.

Splinter Twin is easier. Either ban it or restrict it. The deck can play with 4 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker but it would slow the deck way more compared to Splinter Twin. The harder to play casting cost of an additional red mana slows it by a turn. If they want to protect it with Dispel or Spell Pierce, it would eat up another turn. I think these 2 decks are fine in the metagame as combo decks are fragile, thus the banning or restricting of premium card drawing spells might be the way.

I came across players discussing about Blazing Shoal on how sickening the card is and calling a ban on it. Let’s take a look on how sick it can be.

Turn 1: Inkmoth Nexus.

Turn 2: Play land. Activate Inkmoth Nexus attack. Play Blazing Shoal and pitch a red card with converted mana cost of 9. Dead.

It only needs 5 cards to win on turn 2. If that is not considered wicked sick, I don’t know what is. For those that bought the deck after the Pro Tour, this is for you:

The only reason I can think of Blazing Shoal not getting the hammer is the deck being underrepresented in Philly. I can understand why Sam Black chose to draw as it allows him to mulligan more efficiently instead of playing first. It needs the Blazing Shoal or else it will lose the fair fight. Even the most seasoned Pro will punt when they are playing first, what of us?

Before I end this, I would like to encourage readers to discuss about the possible outcome of the banned and restricted list in a friendly and constructive way. For the haters, this is for you:

This is your noob hero saying, “Have fun!” (like a boss).

Sebastian Gua (april_sebastian on MTGO)

 

22 Comments

Like a boss... by apaulogy at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 12:53
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IDK man. I don't think Stoneforge Mystic is enough. It is dropping a potential Baneslayer on turn 3. Don't the combo decks start having a high probability of winning that turn, and even higher as the game goes on?

Mental Misstep: I agree. This card is a solution. It could be argued that the combo decks would start playing this too, as it is essentially a colorless spell. Well, you have to dedicate 4 slots to it. 4 precious slots that would have been rituals in storm/swath. It could be more pacts, rituals, and filtering in Hive Mind (although this deck is less scary).

It would be a good counter spell for Splinter Twin. In this context one still has to either sacrifice other counterspells, combo pieces, or filtering. All of which already seem pretty water tight for the deck. I think Unbanning Misstep would be a decent call.

Thank you for being the only one I have seen that says that Ancestral Vision would be more of a boon to the combo decks. As someone who has been grinding 2-mans with Storm and Hive Mind, I can tell you that I would be glad to wait until t4 for this to resolve if it meant I got 4 more cards. It would give me a higher probability of drawing my anti-hate cards...

I do think if Misstep becomes unbanned, it would be great support for Stoneforge Mystic and draw-go. Then Jace could stay banned. People hate that card. I think he might get unbanned though. He was a poster boy for a while...

I agree with most of the rest of your positions, but that also greatly depends on what happens on 9/20. I also could be wrong, and all of my assessment is just 100% fallacy.

Was wondering about how the by Sebastian Gua at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 12:45
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Was wondering about how the cards would affect the decks available right now. Jace is still ok in the format but when a card can also be used for combo decks, I don't think it will be pulled down. Ancestral Vision is the nuts for control but it is the god for combo. 3 cards, 1 storm count, if it gets countered another storm count. Where's the downside?? Drawing multiples from the resolved Vision.

Stoneforge is fair in the format. Batterskull on turn 3 against Storm is ok as it provides a clock to beat it but not so against Twin or Cloudpost. It should be pulled down as it is not broken as thought.

Misstep would be in sideboards but I think not so much for combo decks. We would rather pack the deck with more threats than solutions and not lose focus. Drawing dead is so bad for combos.

This article is to try pull the community in and discuss about the potential b&r list. Idea bouncing off one another is fun. Throwing a ball yourself is so boring. xD

uniballin' by apaulogy at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 13:07
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Sometimes, throwing the ball by yourself is better when the alternative is having many balls carelessly and violently hurled at you at a constant 102 MPH. :wink:

You can surround that sentence with quotation marks, followed by a dash with my name if you want to.

The main problem with control by Gardevi at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 13:59
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The main problem with control decks in Modern is sustainability - the card draw all sucks right now. You can fill a deck with infinite counterspells, run out, then die without a way to refill or kill them. Mystic and Blossom are each different ways to make a control deck more sustainable, by giving you different angles of attack. Visions is another way, and I'd rather have it in the format than Stoneforge. You say it's very good in combo decks, but it isn't good for the majority of combo decks. I can see Splinter Twin loving it and shifting to a much more control-oriented version, but for the rest of the decks, they are FAR too slow. Suspend it on turn 1, and you commit yourself to not going off until turn 5? Sometimes turn 4 is too slow.

I think Mental Misstep would be terrible for the format. I actually enjoy casting Missteps a lot, so I don't say this lightly, but I really don't want it in Modern. The format will degenerate into every deck playing Missteps because everyone else is, similar to Legacy, and as a result, lots of cards and strategies will just be unplayable.

Also, mulligan decisions were in no way involved in Black choosing to draw first. Testing showed that the extra card was just much more important, especially since Zoo had all this removal. It ended up becoming an attrition war.

@Andrew: Balls were thrown so by Sebastian Gua at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 15:07
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@Andrew: Balls were thrown so hard recently. *wink*

@Lee: Yea its pretty interesting how they are going to fix this without making combos better. Visions is not good for Storm but good for Pyromancer and Twin which is disturbing.

Misstep would have to depend on the format. It is really good in Legacy but ok in Standard. The power level of Modern is not close to Legacy due to the cards available. Misstep does not shine in Standard due to the sets available compared to Legacy and Standard is just smacking with dudes. I think it should be taken down and given a run and if it is bad for the format, put it back up again.

I should have stated more clearly regarding Sam Black drawing first. Drawing first allows him to decide if the opening 7 is a keeper or to go down to 6. If he does mulligan and keep, it would be as if him playing first but with a slight breathing space due to a free mulligan.

Thanks for ballin' (^^)

Just want you to know by apaulogy at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 15:42
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While I have made some good friends here, you are my favorite PureMTGO buddy (awwwwwwww). Paul Leicht is a close second (didn't forget you, if you read this).

I do not see how t4 Visions is bad for Storm. It is a 1 mana investment on t1 that allows you to sit and sculpt a hand. I would give my left eyeball for this type of card draw/storm enabler (another uniball joke!). It is probably better in swath storm though. I also agree it enables the other decks as well...

I agree with the power of Legacy vs Modern argument for Misstep too. Especially with 1-drops. Ponder/Preordain and Rituals are the playables it hits in Modern right now, and the fringe cards that stand out to me being Spell Snare, Aether Vial, Goblin Guide, a lot of Elves, and 1 mana burn spells. I am probably missing some, but, from the looks of it, Misstep would only really hurt Elves, red rituals and burn spells, and the "too good" card filtering that some people are calling for banning anyway...

Again, I could be way off base here, but I think you have the right attitude. We should be unbanning and adjusting the list, not banning more...

@ Gardevi- you are right. There doesn't seem to be a good way to 1 for 1 with control decks right now, which is how you do it.

I think X-Level Blue does have promise....

>> Visions is not good for by Kumagoro42 at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 19:38
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>> Visions is not good for Storm but good for Pyromancer and Twin

I'm sorry, didn't you just say in your previous comment that it was good for storm count? :) So, what is it, good for storm or not? :)

I believe everyone here agrees that Ancestral Vision is indeed a great card, but nobody seems to know where it would fit in the current Modern meta. There's also some confusion about how suspend actually works: no, you can't resolve a turn 1 Ancestral Vision on turn 4, since you start removing the first counter on turn 2. That means the second counter on turn 3, the third counter on turn 4 and the final counter on turn 5.

So, I'm more with Lee here: I think no current deck would even think to use Ancestral Vision. They all need deck access NOW, not 4 turns later. And if they draw into a copy of Vision on turn 2 or 3 (let alone *multiple copies*), that would be a nightmare for them. By turn 7 they should be already home, not waiting for 3 cards. You need a committed control deck to successfully exploit Vision (or, strangely enough, a zoo-like aggro deck needing late fuel to close the deal, and maybe running Bloodbraid Elf, see Tarmotog's article for that). That's why its banning left many people very perplexed. As Lord Erman said on this very site, Ancestral Vision is far from being an overpowered card, it never was, in any format.

Also, please stop entertaining the idea of restricted cards in Modern. The official position of WoTC on restricted cards is very clear and unquestionable, and it has been said again and again and AGAIN: only Vintage/Classic can have a restricted list (and only because you need to have an all-embracing format with all the cards in it -- except the ante/dexterity ones -- including the irremediably broken ones). Within all other formats a card is either allowed or not allowed, it can't be restricted.

>> I think it should be taken down and given a run and if it is bad for the format, put it back up again.

Hey, that's an idea to keep Modern always fresh: just ban/unban some cards every month! :) "We're unbanning Golgari Grave-Troll and Dread Return next month, so get ready for Dredge Month! Only for this month, unleash the true power of the graveyard!" :)

oops by apaulogy at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 21:45
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"There's also some confusion about how suspend actually works: no, you can't resolve a turn 1 Ancestral Vision on turn 4, since you start removing the first counter on turn 2."

I missed that. thanks for catching me.

"Hey, that's an idea to keep Modern always fresh: just ban/unban some cards every month! :) 'We're unbanning Golgari Grave-Troll and Dread Return next month, so get ready for Dredge Month! Only for this month, unleash the true power of the graveyard!'"

While this is a bit reductio ad absurdum (my favorite game to play!), I don't want this either. It is clear that there are adjustments that need to be made and I find it interesting to discuss what people think about it.

I think your comment is funny because I picture some circus announcer shouting "Dredge Mooooooonth! BRING YOUR TROLLS!!" into crowds of MTG players gathered around to watch LSV do the worm.

Hiya! Visions would be good by Sebastian Gua at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 20:00
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Hiya! Visions would be good for Pyromancer Storm and not so good for the Pyro-less Storm as it is slow. =)

I did not know about restricted list was only for Vintage/Classic. Guess it is either ban or live with it.

They could but it depends if they want to or not. They are the mighty WoTC lol.

Thanks for joining in. (^^)

Visions is pretty poor for by Gardevi at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 20:04
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Visions is pretty poor for Pyromancer Ascension. Which is what I assume you're talking about, because it's even worse for Pyromancer Swath.

Cause I thought about them by Sebastian Gua at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 20:33
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Cause I thought about them being different kind of decks and having an active Pyromancer Ascension when Visions resolve would be sick. Draw draw~~

Nearly every instant or by Gardevi at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 20:42
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Nearly every instant or sorcery is sick with an active Ascension. Visions is far too slow for the deck; you want your 1 mana cantrips to have an effect _now_.

hmm.. guess the only way to by Sebastian Gua at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 20:49
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hmm.. guess the only way to abuse it is by Cascade. A fair card. Should be pulled down too.

Cuddle cuddle~~ xD Up the by Sebastian Gua at Thu, 09/15/2011 - 15:45
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Cuddle cuddle~~ xD

Up the ante, I would give my left ball for Visions.

There are quite alot of targets for Misstep but it seems to further improve Twin. Maybe they should ban or restrict Twin if Misstep comes off.

I might be way off too but men and balls, never apart. (I think I will leave it as it is, we are suppose to be a family orientated website lol).

diving top by Salgy at Fri, 09/16/2011 - 11:38
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if they unban diving top than we can see more counter/top control decks which would balance out all the combo, also increasing more aggro decks.

yea or they can wipe it clean by Sebastian Gua at Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:54
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yea or they can wipe it clean and do a new b&r list in a few months time.

Unbans by Ivo at Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:56
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I don't think we need to ban stuff from combos if Control gets more tools.

Vision is not an issue in combo. It resolves in turn 5 - Zoo can win by then and you may even eat an Emrakul from 12 Post if you play combo and wait that much. The current combo decks want to win turn 3 or 4.

Jace is also less powerful than Stoneforge Mystic in general. Both are quite safe in the format - Jace hits turn 4 and brainstorms? Mystic at best has a 4/4 vigilant and lifelink TOKEN turn 3 (vulnerable to bounce, discard, Clique, artifact destruction and creature removal). The extra life is not going to matter that much against several of the combo decks in the format. Both are safe to unban in terms of power level - that doesn't mean I expect WotC to unban them though... I didn't expect them to be banned in the first place! I'm not trying to predict what WotC decides when they are clearly making decisions based on a non-objective basis. The previous bans were not considered on power level of the cards in the format - they seemed to consider the power level of the cards in Legacy, and then decide that they didn't want that kind of stuff in Modern, ignoring that Legacy has extremely high-impact cards such as FoW that make things extremely different.

Ivo.

From what you said, I can't by Sebastian Gua at Fri, 09/16/2011 - 14:46
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From what you said, I can't help but think the b&r list was done in a haste. The list, except for Affinity cards, seems to be more theoretical than practical. When a new format joins the family it should be given time to mold and develop. Hope they do more good than harm for the upcoming list. (^^)

Correct me if im wrong, but by apricio at Sat, 09/17/2011 - 00:45
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Correct me if im wrong, but arent control decks only able to survive in a "known-meta".
Which leads me to the question, do the nonexistent control decks stand a chance because of the meta being more defined after the pt?

Correct me if im wrong, but by apricio at Sat, 09/17/2011 - 00:45
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Correct me if im wrong, but arent control decks only able to survive in a "known-meta".
Which leads me to the question, do the nonexistent control decks stand a chance because of the meta being more defined after the pt?

Survive? I am pretty sure by Paul Leicht at Sat, 09/17/2011 - 04:27
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Survive? I am pretty sure control decks do quite well surviving in unknown metas. ("No!" is usually generically good.) The question is will they thrive? And if not then why bother? If the top tier of decks does not contain a Control deck (other than the RU combo decks with control elements) that means only that control decks aren't favored by top players. It does not mean they can't survive or even do better than average.

It is true that knowing the meta makes defining a top tier control deck easier. And it is possible once the most correct control plays have been seen for Modern (as it stands assuming no unbannings and expecting only 1 or 2 additions to the list) that a top tier control deck will emerge.

Counter Cats has the possibility of morphing into a more control oriented archetype as do the UR combo decks. In addition Fae has been noticeably absent. I wouldn't count that completely out.

Now that the initial wave of top decks has been established those trying to break into the top (PTQs/GPs etc) will try and brew decks that kill those decks or at least make them uncomfortable. (CF: Lord Erman's latest article.)

We can only wait and see how by Sebastian Gua at Sat, 09/17/2011 - 09:07
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We can only wait and see how the new b&r list enhances control decks. We do need it to keep the format healthy and the players interested. Too much of one thing is bad.