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By: olaw, Oliver Law
Jan 21 2016 1:00pm
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Hello!

The 18th January 2016 Banned and Restricted Announcement made changes to Modern banlist adding two new cards to the banlist.

The Bans

Splinter Twin
Splinter Twin
Of the two bans I think the banning of Splinter Twin will have the biggest impact.  Splinter Twin was an extremely powerful and quick combo in combination with Deceiver Exarch, Pestermite and various other lesser played options.  One of the main strengths of the combo is how few cards needed to be dedicated to it - a two card combo with Flash creatures that can simply end the game as early as Turn 4.  This allowed a large array of cards to be played in support of the combo strategy and gave Twin decks the diversity and depth that made them a mainstay of the format.  The combo could be slotted into a number of shells from straight UR to Grixis, Jeskai, Temur and even Boros.

Arguments in favour
The argument in favour of banning Twin is that it has become a Top Tier and format defining card and that banning it shakes the format up in interesting ways.  WOTC argue that the power of Twin has limited diversity in the format with decks like Jeskai Control and Temur Tempo falling to the wayside due to the power of Twin.  Twin being banned doesn't completely kill the combo either as Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker is still around but obviously is a far slower and more vulnerable way to achieve the combo.

I also know that there will be a lot of people rejoicing the ban of Twin.  Twin is a difficult deck to play against as you need to respect the combo but also cannot afford to lose out to their Snapcaster Mages, Lightning Bolts etc.  Also, a Turn 4 Twin win or a top decked Twin win has a tendency to cause a lot of upset.  I don't this is truly a valid reason for banning Twin but I am aware that there are players who despise the combo and feel it is very unfair.

Arguments against
The argument against banning Twin is that as combo decks go what it was doing wasn't all that unfair.  It played perfectly within the 'Turn 4' rule - really being the poster boy for the concept.  It was a creature-based combo so the combo is vulnerable to removal, which nearly every deck plays.  Also, there are question marks over what will fill the void.  Will the absence of the controlling influence of Twin lead to more degenerate stuff happening in Modern.

The other point of contention will be with those who bought into Modern for the purpose of playing Splinter Twin.  Prior to the ban buying into Twin was a nice starting point as it fits into a number of different shells and can go in a lot of different directions.  Much like Birthing Pod prior to the ban, Twin has been around for a long time and seems like a safe option for investment.  Banning these long-term players is a concern for people looking to invest in the Modern format as it's not clear what is safe anymore.  Should I buy into Tron or will it be next on the chopping block?  There will always be those who lose out but the bold approach of WOTC to the Modern banned list does turn some people off the format.  Twin wasn't any more broken now than it was last time the banned list was revised - Wizards simply decided to shake things up.

Summer Bloom
Summer Bloom
Summer Bloom has been banned which basically nerfs the Amulet Bloom decks. Amulet decks managed to stay under the radar for some time, largely because they are difficult to pilot correctly and had escaped any real mainstream attention.  It's hard to say that Amulet every really dominated the format but in the hands of a skilled pilot it was an extremely powerful deck.  The fact it could break the 'Turn 4 rule' put it in the line of fire and apparently Wizards have come to the decision that the time is now to ban the Bloom.

Arguments in favour
The Bloom decks were very powerful and capable of wins prior to Turn 4 due to the explosive nature of the Amulet of Vigor/Summer Bloom combination.  The combo is also pretty difficult to counter as it is based around lands and can be extremely explosive.

Arguments against
I think in general a sort of consensus has built that the Amulet Bloom deck is a little too good.  However, there are arguments against its ban.  The deck is very unique and plays Magic in a very different way to pretty much any other deck.  No other format has a deck quite like Amulet Bloom and its loss is saddening in that sense.  The deck is also very skill intensive and rewards skillful play, which is something we like to see in our top decks.  Also, it doesn't really feel like there is supporting evidence that Amulet Bloom is dominating the format.  The deck has clearly moved into the Top Tier but it is hard to argue it was truly dominating or stifling the format in any meaningful way.

My Thoughts
Although I did enjoy Splinter Twin decks and didn't really get a chance to learn the intricacies of Amulet Bloom, I have to say that I am not too upset with the bans.  Bans are never fun but there seemed to be a building consensus that the Amulet Bloom decks were just a bit too broken for its own good.   The bigger surprise was the banning of Twin, though it was something that was on people's radar.  I think banning Twin potentially opens up a lot of space in the format.  Whether that will play out as positive or negative change in the grand scheme of things remains to be seen but I find the possibilities exciting.  I hope these changes lead to greater diversity rather than just making way for any single deck to become overpowered, however, only time will tell.

The Ones that Got Away

Amulet of Vigor
Amulet of Vigor
The other half of the Amulet Bloom combo.  There was a lot of talk about which of the two cards should be banned, as it seems unnecessary to ban both.  In the end WotC went for Summer Bloom which I think was probably the right choice.  Banning either card cripples the deck to where it is unlikely to be playable but Summer Bloom is probably the more dangerous card in general.

The WOTC announcement advises that they felt that the post-ban possibilities for Amulet of Vigor-based decks were more distinctive and interesting.  They acknowledged the possibility of Azusa, Lost but Seeking filling in for Summer Bloom but it is slower and less consistent so not something they found concerning.

Goryo's Vengeance
Goryo's Vengeance
People have been calling for a ban of Vengeance or other cards in the Reanimator style decks as they are again capable of Turn 2/3 wins, breaking the 'Turn 4 rule'.  Though I dislike the concept of Turn 2/3 wins in Modern so far the Reanimator decks have not proven themselves consistent enough to warrant a ban.  However, if we see these decks improve and increase in popularity I can certainly see Goryo's Vengeance taking a hit with the banhammer.

The deck could actually get a pretty big boost from the banning of Twin with the probablity of fewer counterspells around.

 

The Future
Banning Splinter Twin is a really interesting change to the format.  Twin was in some ways oppressive to the format - being able to deal with Twin was a bit of a dealbreaker for a Tier 1 deck - but it was also a significant check on the format (as one of the few popular Control-style decks in the format).  I discuss some ideas for the future of the format:

Tron
A clear winner is Tron which has always had a very poor Twin matchup due it's lack of targeted removal and not coping well with Twin's Remands and counterspells.  Tron also looks to be one of the big winners when it comes to cards from Oath of the Gatewatch, with cards like Warping Wail and Spatial Contortion being of interest.  If no strong Control archetype emerges post-ban then it is likely that Tron will be a big player in the new metagame as a solid option.

 

Mono-Black Eldrazi
The Mono-Black Eldrazi decks are also on the rise and also look to gain big from Oath of the Gatewatch.  They could be one to watch in the new format too.


Combo Decks
The concept that banning key cards from the best combo decks in the format may be good for Combo decks does seem a little backward.  However, it is unclear what the new Control archetype will be in the format with the banning of Twin and with potentially fewer Mana Leaks and Remands around Combo decks have the potential to be a lot more potent.  Infect is a deck that has been flying below the radar for quite some time and I could certainly see a resurgence in the popularity of the deck.  Scapeshift, Bogles, Living End, Storm, Melira Company and Goryo's Vengeance decks as well as the various other combo decks could all stand to gain from the banning of Twin and Bloom.

The Future of Twin
Back in 2014, Kiki-Jiki Control was a pretty successful archetype without playing Splinter Twin.  The format has moved on since that time but it could be a player in the absence of Splinter Twin.

 

The Future of Control
Control decks have had a troubled time in Modern.  As many pros have said about Modern it pays to be proactive.  There are so many different threats and powerful cards in Modern that building a deck that can cope with all of them isn't really possible.  Twin mastered this space in the format by having the explosive power of the combo paired with control elements such as counterspells and burn.  Grixis Control is probably the most popular blue control deck outside of Twin and I am curious if it can fill the void.

 

Conclusions
The banning of Twin and Bloom will be very impactful on Modern and will certainly shake things up.  The rights and wrongs of that decision are certainly open for debate but personally I am interested to see how it will all play out.  I am willing to accept that it may lead the format into a negative place but this remains to be seen.

What are your thoughts on the bannings?  Where do you think the future of Modern lies? Please let me know in the comments.

Thanks for reading,

Oliver Law (olaw on MTGO)

3 Comments

Unbans by Sensei at Fri, 01/22/2016 - 19:56
Sensei's picture

I think that Bloodbraid can easily be unbanned. If players want to use Kolaghan's Command, they play Grixis. If players want to cast Goyf + Liliana, they play Abzan.

I was all for unbanning Ancestral Vision when they banned Cruise/DTT but I think WotC was correct to keep it banned without Twin and Bloom in the format. Though no big deal if it's unbanned, it's pretty bad against Eldrazi Processors and Remand.

You may be right about by olaw at Mon, 01/25/2016 - 09:14
olaw's picture

You may be right about Bloodbraid but personally I'm not sure. There was certainly a time when Jund with Bloodbraid was not safe in the format and that is the risk that is run if Bloodbraid is brought back in. It's true that Jund is on the fringes of things now but I imagine that would change quickly if BBE is unbanned.

Ancestral Vision is an interesting one. I really haven't played with so I don't know how good it is but it might be possible to unban it. I actually think it might be a good unban to help promote Control decks in the format. I think blue mages could take quite a hit from the Twin ban but I guess we'll see how it all plays out at the Pro Tour.

At best case Ancestral brings by Paul Leicht at Mon, 01/25/2016 - 13:01
Paul Leicht's picture

At best case Ancestral brings you 3 cards extra on the 5th turn assuming you played it immediately on turn 1. I think they were a little worried about cascading into Ancestral being too good but imho that was a silly worry. Imho that card should never have been on the ban list to begin with.

Bloodbraid Elf on the other hand earned its spot and then some. Onerous cards are onerous. Hope it never comes off.