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By: Splendid Belt, Splendid Belt
Sep 27 2010 12:16am
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Hello, and welcome back to Out of the Blue.  I wasn't able to produce an article last week, mostly because of the recent birth of my second child.  Turns out babies take up quite a bit of your free time.  Anyway, we decided to call him Dimir Cutpurse Sumner, so he's already off to a great start in life.

Yes, I love all things Dimir.  Show me a blue / black deck and I'm in raptures.  In fact, before I managed to grab some time to draft this week, I was planning an article showcasing how powerful but more importantly fun blue / black can be across various formats.  But then last night my wife went to bed, the kids were asleep, and sure it was a little late, but surely I could manage just a quick...

I wanted a 4322, but I just missed it, and the Swiss was about to fire.  And it was late, so I didn't really want to hang around.  On the positive side, at least I could afford to be terrible and still have three matches to talk about.  On the negative side, I could draft a train wreck and still be semi-forced to stay up till the early hours to see out my matches.  Oh well, Swiss it is.

 

 

So that's the draft.  I was reasonably happy with the way it went, finishing up perhaps an Air Servant short of greatness.  Given my natural inclination towards U/B though, I can't help but think what might have been had I read the signals and dived into black early on.  There's no way I would have been able to drop white, with Blinding Mage and Serra Angel my top picks, but the black cards I saw certainly beat the blue ones I ended up with, although it's fairly close.

Had I jumped into black, I feel I would have ended up with a controlling W/B build, with card advantage through multiple Gravediggers, lots of removal courtesy of multiple Assassinates, Quag Sickness and Stabbing Pains (although significantly, no Doom Blade), a couple of Liliana's Specters and then pretty much the same White cards as I picked anyway.  Still, that would have been a different draft, so who knows how it would have ended up.

Here's how I built what I picked.  Seventeen lands felt about right, with white favoured as most of the cards I wanted to be dropping early were white, and of course it makes Armored Ascension slightly better.  On that note, yes it's an enchantment which is bad (two for one opportunity for your opponent), but it's sufficiently powerful that you only need to get in for a couple of swings to change the game.  And Scroll Thief loves it.

 

 

If I could have my time again...

If I could have my time over again, besides drafting black in this pod and not giving my child a name which will see him teased out of school, I'd have sideboarded Wall of Frost for Harbor Serpent.  I actually like the Wall, but not in this deck, where I want to race.  I don't have much fat, so if my opponent isn't dead by around turn eight or nine, I've probably lost.  The Wall doesn't help to kill anything, so is an incorrect choice.

Matches

Match 1 vs. Ineedabucket Mirror Match

Blinding Mage Sorcerer's Strongbox Mana Leak Assault Griffin

Game 1

I open and keep a dodgy seven of Cloud Elemental, Water Servant, three Islands and two Plains.  I have a real danger of flooding, but I'm so fearful of mana screw that keep it anyway, wondering for the first time if perhaps sixteen lands might have been better in this supposedly fast and aggressive deck.  I noted that my opponent was the first to submit his deck during the deckbuilding phase, which made me think he must be good, being able to construct his deck so quickly.  Realistically it means no such thing, but I also liked his name, so was slightly biased in his favour.

I draw Wall of Frost then Augury Owl, which gives me a turn two play.  Having only laid down Islands so far, my opponent is able to Mana Leak in response.  I'm happy to see a counter wasted on a one power guy.  My opponent lays another island on his next turn but makes no further play.  I reason that he's probably holding another counter, but I believe the strategy in limited (and constructed for that matter) is simply to keep the threats coming, eventually their counters will desert them.  I cast Cloud Elemental.  It's not countered.  So far so good.  It gets through next turn, and is joined by Cloud Crusader, which would have been Crystal Ball had I been awake enough during the draft.  More beats is great though, so perhaps it pays to draft late.

Ineedabucket casts Sorcerer's Strongbox on his turn, a seductive card which is fairly close to terrible, in my opinion.  Of course it says 'draw three cards', which is great.  But I've lost games endlessly flipping coins while my opponent gets on with actually working towards winning the game.  And that's what happens here.  He loses his next flip but casts Blinding Mage, whilst I add another Cloud Elemental, then a Water Servant to my team.

On turn seven my opponent finally wins the flip, but is down to eight life.  I have nine power on the table, including the pumpable Water Servant.  His Blinding Mage can delay me, but only for a turn.  Despite having just drawn three cards, Ineedabucket concedes.

Not a bad start then, the plan of beating face with cheap evasive guys worked.

Game 2

My opponent elects to play first, which is great because I open a borderline seven of two Cloud Elementals, Serra Angel, Condemn, Pacifism, Island and Plains.  It's a hand that's close to perfect, but unless you draw an early land, could also mean you're forced to blow some precious removal on early creatures, then fall behind.  On the draw, it's a keeper.  On the play... I'm not so sure.

My first draw is Aether Adept which gets me worried, but I draw Plains next which sets me at ease.  Ineedabucket opens with War Priest of Thune.  I decide to use up a Pacifism on it, before seeing a Cloud Elemental Mana Leaked on the following turn.  We reach turn four and I've yet to apply any beats, which worries me.  My opponent casts Assault Griffin, and I answer with its blue mirror, Cloud Elemental.  Rather than trade, I Condemn the bird when it attacks.  I'm not convinced that was the best use of my top removal spell (in that it actually removes something from the board, unlike Pacifism), but I was anxious to start pushing damage through.  My opponent finishes his turn with the excellent Foresee.

At the end of turn six I'm still stuck on five mana, with only one blue source.  So I'm unable to cast the Aether Adept, Serra Angel or Wall of Frost I'm holding, leaving only Safe Passage as a potentially useful card.  Next turn Ineedabucket casts Blinding Mage and Stormfront Pegasus.  He allows me to swing through with my Cloud Elemental again, then I play my freshly drawn Plains, and attempt to cast Serra Angel, hoping that his two blue mana up don't signify a counter.  They don't.  He adds Ajani's Pridemate to his team, but doesn't tap me or attack on his turn.

I find my own Blinding Mage on my turn, and take four from his guys, still managing to get two through myself, my Angel being held down by his Mage.  I take another four the following turn, but then am able to tap his Blinding Mage on his end step, leaving me free to beat for six with my flyers.  Vigilance is key here, as his mage still has to tap Serra Angel to get his guys through, leaving me free to tap something of his, and still get my beaters through.

Just when I think I've won, Safe Passage buys him a turn.  When he loses the flip for the second time on his recently cast Sorcerer's Strongbox, he concedes.

So, confirmation if it was needed that Blinding Mage and Serra Angel are good.  I could have cast my Aether Adept towards the end of the game, but it didn't look like I was going to need it, and denying my next opponent a little knowledge can only be a good thing.

Both of us were attempting the U/W flyers deck in this draft, but I think my overall card quality was better.  I think my opponent lost principally because of his counters and Strongbox.  If they'd been creatures or removal, the game would have been closer.  If you're trying to build a fast, aggressive deck, counters are highly debatable (though I'd say no), but a slow, mana-intensive artifact that doesn't say 'win the game' really isn't your friend.

 

Match 2vs. Zwanesh69 (G/B fatties with removal)

Stabbing Pain Obstinate Baloth Garruk's Companion Cudgel Troll

Game 1

I choose to play first, since I'm the aggro deck, although I also don't mind drawing in this format.  From scouting, I see my opponent is G/B, with some decent fat from green, and lots of removal (at least three Stabbing Pains from black. I also note a couple of play mistakes (Stabbing Pain as a combat trick on an opponent's Greater Basilisk to take its power down to non-lethal levels, forgetting that deathtouch makes it irrelevant), which gives me confidence.

I have a very decent opener of Blinding Mage, two Cloud Elementals, Water Servant, Pacifism, Island and Plains.  I play out Blinding Mage, then lose Pacifism to Duress.  Next turn I cast Cloud Elemental, and continue to beat with everything, adding Water Servant on turn four.  My opponent takes himself back up twenty with the excellent Obstinate Baloth.  I tap it down with the mage, beat with everything and add Scroll Thief.  Zwanesh responds with Garruk's Companion, but I suspect the mere sight of the Thief on the board will make him want to hang back.

On turn five I again tap the Baloth, and turn my Elemental and Servant sideways.  My opponent wastes a Stabbing Pain on the Servant and blocks it with his Companion.  I pump the Servant to save it.  Okay, that means Companion doesn't die, but it means I get some card advantage from the pointless black instant.  I add Infantry Veteran at the end of play, which a second, more useful Stabbing Pain sends to the bin.  On turn six my opponent has seen enough and concedes.

That was an early concession.  He had four cards in hand, I can only imagine they were all land.

Game 2

Zwanesh chooses to play first, I keep a slightly dodgy seven I might mull on the play: Water Servant, Armored Ascension, Inspired Charge, Safe Passage, two Islands and a Plains.  He opens quickly with Llanowar Elves, Garruk's Companion and Sylvan Ranger.  I respond rather weakly with Scroll Thief.  Where that's Wall of Frost now?  I can't profitably stop the Companion, an it takes me down to twelve life as Cudgel Troll is added to his team.  I cast Water Servant, which blocks and trades with the Companion next turn (thanks to yet another Stabbing Pain, while the Troll takes me down to eight.  PacifismWall of FrostCondemnBlinding Mage?  Anyone?  I cast Cloud Elemental, and send Scroll Thief in, which is surprisingly let through.  It draws the Wall of Frost I'm so desperate for.  Could I pull this one back?

I go down to two life next turn, my Elemental uninterested in blocking anything without flying.  Stone Golem appears across the board.  I play the Wall and Infantry Veteran, so technically I'm able to live through the next turn and give myself a fighting chance.  But another Stabbing Pain taps my wall and it's over.

I can't argue with the card quality on display there.  His creatures are bigger, and there are plenty of them.  I need either to be faster, or to draw more removal.  Having suffered my first loss, I take a closer look at my sideboard, but don't see anything I'd rather have in my deck.  I have Celestial Purge, but all my permanent problems are green, so don't like that option.  I stick with what I have.

Game 3

Knowing that I need to be quick, I choose to play first.  Perhaps unwisely, I keep Scroll Thief, Silvercoat Lion, three Islands and two Plains.  Partly because I prefer to flood than screw, and partly because I have two good early plays, and will hopefully have drawn into something playable by turn four.

I open with Silvercoat Lion, my opponent with Sylvan Ranger.  Next I cast Scroll Thief, and discard an Island to my opponent's fresh Liliana's Specter.  What's my next play?

I like Pacifism here on the Specter.  I'll either then get three damage through and card draw from the Thief, or more likely a free creature kill as he chumps with his Ranger.  I tried to be greedy though, thinking I could just swing through his board and kill them for free.  I forgot the Specter has two power (hey, it was gone midnight by this time).  He double blocked my Thief, and it traded with the Specter.  Not a completely terrible passage of play, but not as good as it should have been.  I finish the turn with Wild Griffin, then to add insult to injury, lose the Pacifism anyway to Duress.  That'll teach me.  Then Griffin then dies to Plummet.  I have one card in hand to my opponent's four, and it's Island.  It could have been so much better.

Next turn I cast Infantry Veteran, but it can't match my opponent's new Stone Golem.  I rip Condemn next turn, which sees the artifact off.  Then I immediately wish I'd kept it for the Cudgel Troll which enters the fray next, followed on the next turn by Garruk's Companion and Howling Banshee.  I whiff and draw land after land.  I die.

Well that was disappointing.  At the time I felt annoyed that I could have done better, and it's true, the Scroll Thief catastrophe wasn't great play.  But looking back over it, I would have needed an almost ideal sequence of draws to beat my opponent's creature quality.  So, I'm not going to win the draft.  But it's Swiss, there's still one more match, and a pack to play for.

Match 3 vs. Pipes mirror match

Cancel Azure Drake Air Servant Scroll Thief

Game 1

This match is against the other 2-0 winner of the first round, who also lost his second round 2-1.  From scouting, I know that this is pretty much a mirror match, and that he's been lucky enough to draft the coveted Air Servant.  Hopefully he won't find it, or I'm in trouble.

I open a decent seven on the play: Augury Owl, Silvercoat Lion, Cloud Crusader, Condemn, Pacifism, Island, Plains.  This is exactly when I want to see the Owl.  If I'm hungry for another land drop, he should be able to find it for me.  If I'm okay for land but want gas, he's also my go to guy.

Pipes mulligans to six, and spends his first turn Preordaining.  I've drawn an island, so am fine for land for now, meaning I cast the more powerful Silvercoat Lion over the Owl on turn two.  The Owl instead comes out on turn three, sending a plains away to the bottom of my library, and putting another plains and a Cloud Elemental on top.  In retrospect, both plains should have been sent away.  On turn four I beat with both creatures, and see my Cloud Elemental fall foul of Cancel.  Rather that than Serra Angel anyway.  Pipes follows that up with Azure Drake, a card I would have taken for myself had I seen any.  Still, it wears Pacifism just as well as anyone else.

On turn five Pipes casts the familiar form of Water Servant.  I treat it to a freshly ripped Pacifism too  Next he casts Wild Griffin.  I offer the trade with my Lion, which he allows through going down to seven life.  I then cast Cloud Crusader, probably making him wish he traded with the Lion.  Trouble comes on turn seven in the form of the dreaded Air Servant.  Now that's the card I wanted.  I'm in trouble, with one more mana he can tap both of my flyers each turn, and reliably get through for four damage.  That's if he actually uses it to attack though.  Sitting on single figures life, maybe he'll keep it on defence, keep me tapped down and whittle me away with his Griffin?  Holding Condemn as I am, I hope he's less cautious and swings.

I cast the irrelevant Wall of Frost (given his exclusively flying board), then see my Crusader tapped by his Servant.  Fortunately he subsequently does indeed swing with the 4/3 flyer, an action which I severely Condemn.

By the start of turn eleven, Pipes' hand has been partially filled by Jace's Ingenuity, and he's added Infantry Veteran and Scroll Thief to his board.  I've also added Infantry Veteran and two Scroll Thiefs (Thieves), but Ice Cage has shut down my Cloud Crusader.  He's sitting on five life.  Provided he didn't just draw something relevant (which he probably did), I can win with this board, largely thanks to the potential pump offered by my Veteran.  It can boost any of my three attackers to kill any one of his three blockers.  I swing with my team, bring him down to three, and send his Griffin to the bin.  Now, let's see what he drew.

The answer it turns out, is Harbor Serpent.  Pretty decent in this match up, I'm now on a four turn clock.  Not that he can afford to attack with it...  I swing with my team, knowing I'll lose at least one creature.  Oddly, he elects not to block my Lion, so intent is he on stopping my Thieves.  Expecting Unsummon or similar, I use the Veteran to pump it up to lethal.

He doesn't have a trick, and I win.

Game 2

I side in a Harbor Serpent of my own for my Wall, but that's about all I remember from the game besides the fact that I won.  The putrid MTGO client failed to record the game, and since it was about 01:30 for me and I was exhausted, my memory failed likewise.  The one thing I do recall is finally using Inspired Charge for a surprise alpha strike with a ton of weenies for the win.  So it was nice that my ultimate strategy finally saw fruition, even if it didn't win me the draft.

Conclusions

Well we all know about blue white flyers.  It's strong, and there are lots of choice commons to choose between.  The fact that I managed to cobble together a fairly functional deck without some of the better cards is proof that there's depth there, as well as strength.  Here are some of the cards I would like to have had, but didn't (sticking to commons and uncommons, since we can't rely on rares or mythics to show up):

Azure Drake Air Servant Air Elemental Assault Griffin Stormfront Pegasus

So how could I have improved my results?  Well firstly I think I should have jumped out of blue and into black fairly early on, since it was so obviously flowing, and continued to flow right through the draft.  But even that aside, my strategy could have been better with the deck I had.  I'd convinced myself that I was fast aggro, but missing some of the key cards listed above, I was more aggro control in reality.  My losses in Match two emphasize the point, I often found myself without decent creatures to play.  Scroll Thief isn't aggro.  Neither is Diminish or Safe Passage.  If I had been able to remove those cards for some of those listed above (or even for fast ground beaters like Elite Vanguard), then I would have truly been the aggro deck.

Looking back over my draft picks, I don't see many superior alternatives in U/W besides those I mentioned at the time (Wall of Frost being arguably my most suboptimal pick, though not selecting the Crystal Ball was quite bad too).  Overall I think a 2-1 result is a fair reflection of the power of my picks.  I don't see a clear way I could have dealt with the power of my opponent's creatures in the two games I lost.  I'd love to hear contrary opinions to this, if I'm missing something, please do tell me in the comments.

I was lucky enough to pick two very good cards in my first two picks of the draft ((Blinding Mage and Aether Adept), and then right from P1P2, was unlikely to change my colours.  I suppose I could have seen the Mage as a splash, but white continued to flow - as did blue, consistently supplying me with decent flyers.

But did we learn anything?

We should learn something from every draft we play, or at least slightly amend our valuations of some cards.  Here's how some of my valuations changed as a result of this draft:

Going Up

Green on the whole impressed me in my second match.  I often avoid it, but paired with removal, the efficiency of its fat can be unbeatable.

Silvercoat Lion impressed me.  It probably did more damage to my opponents than any other card.  Okay it's a 2/2 vanilla creature, how great can it be?  Well, better than I previously thought, is the answer.  It's easy to cast, comes down early and has is efficient costed.  If you're trying to be fast and furious, that's a good thing.  I guess that's what makes Garruk's Companion so good.

Water Servant doesn't have evasion, but the ability to change its power and toughness depending on the situation makes it hard to remove, and complicates the combat maths for your opponent.

Going Down

Armored Ascension is a card I'd think very carefully about picking next time.  I never wanted to cast it.  I drew it twice, the first time I only had one plains out, and the second I expected that my opponent was holding removal, and didn't want to offer the two for one.  You get more value from it on non-flyers anyway.  Something like Sacred Wolf is a great target.

Safe Passage - I never needed it when I drew it.  It would have been better as a creature or removal every time.  Perhaps it should have been the Siege Mastodon I didn't want to include.

 

And that's all I have time for this week.  I'd love to hear comments on what you'd have picked, and how you'd have played (better) differently.  A couple of the packs in my pod were especially strong, and there were certainly a lot of options.  Interestingly, on the Mothership podcast, Rich Hagon recently asked a bunch of pros for their opinions of the relative draft strengths of 15 M11 cards (taking 15 of the commonly accepted best cards of the set).  He got a different answer from each of them, so however we agree or disagree on our selections, there's rarely one definitively 'correct' choice, merely degrees of 'rightness'.

And if it were any other way, Magic wouldn't be the game it is.

Till next time.

 

Splendid Belt

www.splendidbelt.com

21 Comments

p1p2: too early to take by rainin6 at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 02:31
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4

p1p2: too early to take aether adept and declare yourself to be in 2 colors - i would have gone safe/lackluster infantry veteran.

p1p3: crystal ball is right pick. but it's not necessarily "worthy of a first pick" - as you say, "it's all about tempo" - this card is anti-tempo.

p1p4: ugh, SQUADRON HAWK pls! - if you don't get another hawk, you don't miss out much.

given you committed to U/W so early, the picks seemed right from there out for the most part.

rd2g2: i dont like ur hand - as it stands, you have a turn 4 creature on the play and 2 "relatively" dead cards in inspired charge/armored ascension. i think mulligan is the right call there. if one of the aforementioned spells were a 2cc or 3cc creature, i'd prob keep. bc if you are a the UW "aggro" deck there's nothing "aggro" about playing first creature on t4.

rd2g3: unfortunate game there. i think correct play was not to pacifism the specter - unless you had some kind of read on duress (i.e. he played a t1 swamp and hesitated or something). ofc incorrect to attack with scroll thief without playing pacifism. i guess line of play using pacifism + scroll thief attack wouldn't be that bad but i'd rather save pacifism for a tougher to deal with threat... (yeah, duress, oh well)

good job, nice draft explanations, deckbuilding, recounting rounds, post-tourney analysis, etc. prefer your real articles as opposed to casual stuff =)

this was a great comment to a by ShardFenix at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 03:27
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this was a great comment to a great article...up until this line "prefer your real articles as opposed to casual stuff =)"

Casual articles are just as real as draft reports and in my opinion his casual ones are more entertaining(if only because so many draft walk throughs are available.)

oh yeah, not discrediting his by rainin6 at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 14:25
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oh yeah, not discrediting his casual articles in terms of content, etc. just that since i'm not a casual player really, i liked this article a lot. i guess it's a bit self-serving bc i would like to see more draft walkthroughs from him!

Congratulations on the new by MMogg at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 04:00
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Congratulations on the new baby. Frankly, as the father of a one-and-a-half year old (well, just over), I don't know how so many fathers on here have time for MTGO. I can barely squeeze in some play time in the TP room let alone set aside 4 uninterrupted hours to draft. o.O

It's not easy to get time by ArchGenius at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 13:04
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It's not easy to get time online when you're a dad.

1. You need at least 2 computers in the house, otherwise you will get accused of hogging the computer playing Magic.
2. You need to have a balanced schedule including equal time with your wife, time with your family, and time to do your own thing.
3. If you plan out ahead of time what nights you're going to play online and what nights you're going to do other things then your wife will not be angrily waiting up for you.
4. You need to give your wife time to do her own thing too. If you volunteer to take your baby for an entire night while your wife goes out with her friends, it will be much easier to get a night for Magic.
5. A lot of the time, you need to wait until your baby is asleep before you can start playing. This works out really well if you've already given your wife a night out with the girls. Then you can play guilt-free after the baby is asleep.

If you help your wife to do the things she wants to do, then she will want to help you do the things you want to do. The trick is plan it out ahead of time and make sure you are communicating well with your wife.

Of course some players are lucky and have wives who also play Magic Online. I'm not one of those lucky guys.

These are great tips for a by Drbenwayy at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 13:31
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These are great tips for a man in a relationship with kids. Before I bought a laptop, I know my wife and I would fight about using the computer. The rest are just good tips for being a good husband in a relationship.

Thanks for the comments by Splendid Belt at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 04:33
Splendid Belt's picture

Thanks for the comments guys.

@rainin6 - Great to get other opinions on picks and plays, that sort of thing really adds value to draft reports so thanks.
p1p2 - I think Aether Adept is too strong to pass personally. If I don't go blue (sort of unlikely even this early given the strength of the Adept and my own bias) at least I've denied someone else. But looking at it again, I still prefer Adept here, it's not like the alternatives were exceptional.

p1p3 - Again, I'd first pick Crytal Ball over most things at common or uncommon. The only cards at that rarity that I'd pick over it would be Fireball, Mind Control and Blinding Mage. It may be all about the tempo, but at least for me, the Ball is sufficiently good to justify the tempo loss.

(Interesting that I never actually got to play the first two cards worthy of discussion).

p1p4 - Well I do like Augury Owl, but maybe I undervalue Squadron Hawk, you're probably right here.

And I think you're absolutely right about the mulligan. I have an irrational fear of mulliganing unless it's really screamingly obvious, I just hate the idea of getting a similar / worse hand, but handing over card advantage at the same time. Probably one of the reasons my rating isn't higher.

@Shard - thanks for the support! Glad you like the more casual articles too, since I produce those far more frequently.

@MMogg - thanks. As I said, I only managed to find time because I sacrificed a couple of hours of sleep (for which I'm still paying). I've only managed a few quick casual games since then.

I agree with your Aether by phe0bus at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 11:15
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I agree with your Aether Adept pick. There were many blue cards in that pack. For one reason, if you ship them all, you are sending the, "blue is open," signal.

Oddly enough I missed the second crystal ball pick, too.

I know I undervalue the Squadron Hawk. I value the Owl greatly, so I made the same pick as you. Note, despite signals that white was open, no more S.Hawks came around. Of course, you had no idea at the time.

Question: Where or how do you get the draft into the flash player?

Thanks Phe0bus. I think by Splendid Belt at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 11:35
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Thanks Phe0bus. I think that's partly why I felt slightly frustrated after the event. It was an 'easy mode' Swiss draft, I made broadly 'correct' picks, and only one proper play mistake and still only came second. Ah well, I was well beaten in round two so I shouldn't complain.

The flash player comes courtesy of Rare Draft, which you can find here (or just google 'Rare Draft'):

http://www.raredraft.com/welcome?ref=/

Even the very few picks where by Sanador at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 11:52
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Even the very few picks where I would have taken a different card, you mention the card I would have taken in your comments. Thanks for the good article.

On Crystal Ball, are people really that high on it? I agree with rainin6 that it was probably the pick there over augury owl or anything else, but it's still a disappointing pick to me at pick 3. In my experience, that card can win games that drag out; but in games decided quickly, the fact that the crystal ball is not another creature can keep you from winning. In an aggro deck the Ball seems more likely to hurt you.

Alot of pros and pundits by Paul Leicht at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 12:54
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Alot of pros and pundits agree that Ball is the bomb. The saying is "when the horse speaks listen." Which roughly translates into "if everyone says it is so, it might be so."

I believe Conley Woods (for by Amar at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 13:11
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I believe Conley Woods (for example) recently said that he thinks Crystal Ball is overrated since 3 drops are important, it doesn't draw a card or affect the board, and it takes time to get the value back.

It's still quite good, but for a while people were "Woah, pick 2 Crystal ball? I can't believe someone passed this!" So there has been a counter-reaction to that.

heh I won't comment on by Paul Leicht at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 13:28
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heh I won't comment on specific pro's remarks I've read/heard regarding the ball but that seems like a reasonable response. Pick 2 does seem early. The flip side of course is that while it doesn't replace a solid 3 drop it is also very important and who you pass it to matters if you elect not to take it. Meh what do I know? I am a spectator for the most part these days.

Crystal Ball by rainin6 at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 14:35
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Crystal Ball as I understand it is this:

It's definitely a powerful card to have - one that is almost automatically included in SEALED. The reason that it's less exciting in M11 DRAFT is because the format is a little faster than sealed. Granted, it's not ZZW-fast, but enough so that the playing a Crystal Ball early is not that great of a play. This, of course, must be taken in light of the fact that it is presumed that the M11 matches will be a bit more tempo-driven. On balance, it IS a fine play in a M11 draft where the matches will drag out a little longer - such as in a less "competitive" draft (define "competitive" how you want...). Speaking very broadly and generally, I will gladly pick a Crystal Ball earlier (3rd/4th) in a Swiss or 4-3-2-2 M11 draft, while I will not pick it up until 6th/7th in an 8-4 draft. So I guess, when I made the prior post about Crystal Ball earlier I forgot that this was a Swiss draft - my mistake!

That's an interesting thing by Paul Leicht at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 14:46
Paul Leicht's picture

That's an interesting thing to say about drafting in general. I never hear about differences in picking strategies depending on the payout. But it makes sense if you are playing vs people you believe to be as strong as yourself (or stronger) then you have to tighten up your picking order where as with people less strong than you, they might not be following any plan at all and the ball will wheel or whatever.

Interesting, but I don't by Splendid Belt at Mon, 09/27/2010 - 15:44
Splendid Belt's picture

Interesting, but I don't think I'd personally change my pick order / strategy whichever queue I'm in.

I think of Crystal ball as one of the few cards that can turn a loss into a win. At uncommon, I can think of only Mind Control and Fireball which can do likewise. In the two games I lost, Crystal Ball was the card I needed more than any other. As you saw, I drew Wall of Frost when I wanted it, but one creature is easily dealt with, in much the same way that one piece of removal is dealt with - the creature is simply replaced.

But the ball helps you get what you want again and again. Kill my blocker? Here's another. Drop another fatty? Here's another Pacifism.

I accept that it's slow, and wasn't optimal for my strategy, but I still rate it highly. Perhaps it isn't P1P1, but as with all picks, that depends what else is out there. Ball was certainly the pick both times it appeared in my draft.

I would've P1p2 the by lenney at Tue, 09/28/2010 - 00:04
lenney's picture

oops...

I would've P1p2 the by lenney at Tue, 09/28/2010 - 00:04
lenney's picture

I would've P1p2 the Cultivate, then P1p3 the Troll, P1p4 the Giant Spider. You see where I'm going here? Armored Ascension is insane in this archetype w/ Troll and Sacred Wolf. You may have even been able to splash a color. Adept was a solid pick as well though b/c it cuts Blue, but I still would like to hear your opinion on Cultivate there. It's a very underrated card for green and very necessary. It also cuts green. You ended up with a descent deck though, so it's hard to say what the outcome, in a draft with such quality cards all across the board in every pack, would be.

On Green... by Splendid Belt at Tue, 09/28/2010 - 10:13
Splendid Belt's picture

Well there were certainly some great green cards through the draft, so that would have worked. Without the benefit of foreknowledge though, at P1P2, I'd always pick the strongest card, which in this case was the adept. That has the further advantage of putting me in U/W, with the liklihood of picking up lots of flyers and constructing what is known to be a very solid archetype in the format.

As I said in the article, I tend to avoid green, but then it was green that happened to give me the most trouble in matches, so it appears I (like many others) undervalue the colour.

In retrospect, now that I know all the possible picks, I would have gone W/B, but green would have been solid too, and you're right, Cultivate is a useful card in this format.

In summary, I saw several very strong packs, so all colours (except red, typically) would have been very viable in this draft.

Thanks for the reply. In my by lenney at Tue, 09/28/2010 - 16:56
lenney's picture

Thanks for the reply. In my opinion it's a toss up there. Adept can be really great in the right deck, but it's hard to tell on p1p2 whether or not you can successfully draft that deck, and taking more control oriented cards like Ball really makes me wonder what you were thinking with your approach. Is this a tempo deck, or a control deck? Know what I mean? It's very hard to say at what pick it crossed that line, but I think you ended up with a much slower deck to be picking the Adept in p1p2. Cultivate is probably the safer pick, as it allows you to be alot more flexible in your approach throughout the rest of the draft. That being said, I don't blame you at all for being a little aggressive and trying to force the tempo archetype early, as it can be extremely good and has led me, and I'm sure many others, to many 3-0's, but I think that the tempo deck wants a few more squadron hawks and a few less crystal balls. :)

IMO crystal ball is too slow by StealthBadger at Wed, 09/29/2010 - 07:55
StealthBadger's picture

IMO crystal ball is too slow for most decks in this format. It's absolutely outstanding in sealed, but M11 draft is a much much faster format than M11 sealed (which always seems to get bogged down with the ridiculous range of 4-5 toughness dudes).

I can't imagine myself often cutting crystal ball from a draft deck, but I don't think it's anywhere near first-pick material.