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By: xger, Xger
Mar 02 2017 12:00pm
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Our first of this year's flashback was one we had seen relatively recently. The last time we had Invasion block, as best I can tell, was February of 2014. Time to dive in!

If you want to jump past the introduction, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here. 

Introduction to Article Series

To jump to the set background, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here.

Over the course of this year, Wizards will run flashback drafts that are from the Modern sets. One week for each format. The flashbacks will stop when there is a prerelease or release going on. More info here.

Here is the upcoming schedule:

Format Dates
Invasion, Planeshift, Apocalypse 3/1-3/8
??? ???

While Wizards has promised flashbacks throughout the year, we do not know what the next one will be, nor do we know when it will be. 

First, I will do a fiscal analysis. While a lot of players will play just for the fun of it, knowing what cards are worth something is a good plan. Since none of these formats are competitively valued anymore, there really is no reason to pass on a $30 card. Even if it is terrible and useless in limited. Further, knowing what common and uncommons are worth the effort to sell could be useful.

However, just a rote listing of pricing is only so helpful. A lot of the cards, particularly core sets and the older sets, just don't have the supply to adequately meet demand. That means some of the cards might tank quickly when there is a sudden surge of supply. Some of these sets have probably never had flashbacks, or it has been many years. That means the market reaction might be extreme or subtle. It is also unknown how many cards will enter the system—if the drafts are popular, the effect is greater.

To give the most useful information, I am going to track the value of the sets already given a flashback as well as the time just prior to the flashback. Hopefully this will give some idea of the fiscal value of the flashback draft. Of course, it is still going to be a lottery most of the time.

Second, I will give some very brief drafting advice and provide links to other articles from those better experienced. 

With that, let's get started:

Invasion Block History and Background

Given that I'm providing financials for 3 sets, this section will be a bit short. When Magic Online first came out, Invasion block was the oldest sets online. However, it really wasn't up for all that long. So, for quite a long time, foil Reya Dawnbringer was the most expensive card online, at times being worth over 200 tickets. There were very few players and IPA was not the current format, so there simply was not many of the cards. It also marked the cut off for quite a while--there were no older cards than IPA and 7th.

 

 

=200+ Tickets?

Invasion block focused on multicolor, the first block to do so. The idea was to get players to play as many colors as possible, so we had Domain as on the main mechanics, and a much higher concentration of gold cards. Planeshift focused on the allied colors, whereas Apocalypse focused on the enemy pairs. This can make for some interesting drafting, so have fun!

Fiscal Value

Prices are from MTGOtraders and MTGgoldfish as the evening on the 22nd. 

Invasion

Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Phyrexian Altar $11.5
Hanna, Ship's Navigator $5.84
Captain Sisay $5.3
Rout $4.58
Collective Restraint $3.54
Aura Mutation $2.45
Elvish Champion $1.96
Twilight's Call $1.87
Spreading Plague $1.68
Empress Galina $1.61

 

Top Uncommons
Name Price
Sterling Grove $3.78
Aura Shards $2.92
Wash Out $0.7
Tangle $0.69
Chromatic Sphere $0.45

 

Worthwhile Commons
Name Price
Exclude $4.77
Prohibit $0.82
Obsidian Acolyte $0.76
Crimson Acolyte $0.66
Vodalian Zombie $0.06

Planeshift

Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Diabolic Intent $4.62
Eladamri's Call $4.02
Orim's Chant $3.65
Nemata, Grove Guardian $1.74
Phyrexian Tyranny $1.47
Lord of the Undead $1.08
Meddling Mage $1.03
Forsaken City $0.82
Meteor Crater $0.4
Cloud Cover $0.32

 

Top Uncommons
Name Price
None!

 

Worthwhile Commons
Name Price
Terminate $1.91
Cavern Harpy $0.12
Sunscape Familiar $0.1

Apocalypse

Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Pernicious Deed $6.35
Phyrexian Arena $5.78
Guided Passage $1.78
Vindicate $1.35
Lightning Angel $1.29
Shivan Reef $1.16
Yavimaya Coast $0.73
Mystic Snake $0.64
Llanowar Wastes $0.54
Cromat $0.49

 

Top Uncommons
Name Price
Gerrard's Verdict $0.11

 

Worthwhile Commons
Name Price
Standard Bearer $2.97
Whirlpool Rider $0.07

Here, each set has a common worth more than most rares, and Invasion has several worthy uncommons. The rares aren't that great, but you still might be able to grab something to recover half the draft. 

 

These charts show the inflection points of the sets' rares--here the set averages are $0.59, $0.52 and $0.59 for Invasion, Planeshift, and Apocalypse respectively. It is questionable how well these will hold up, as these sets are still fairly low in circulation.

I'm not doing a lottery rate here, as I don't have a really good way to calculate it when all three sets are introduced at once.

Set Trend Pack Value Average Draft Value
As all of these are old sets, a lot of their value spikes when single cards do, otherwise they are stable $0.96 Normal Pack

$3.57

$0.83 Without Commons $0.67
     

A lot of the value is in some of the commons and uncommons, so it shouldn't be incredibly difficult to pick up a few tickets in value, but a lot of people might be doing that. Just make sure you know which commons to take!

Wrap Up

Should you want other articles, here's a search link

  • Here's an article by Micheal Pustilnik at SCG.

My understanding is that Grixis (UBR) is often the most powerful overall, so you could aim for that.

As always, I appreciate any comments! 

xger

xger21 on MTGO.