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By: MarcosPMA, nn
Feb 02 2016 1:00pm
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Hello and welcome to another edition of Sealed Success!  The quest for Expeditions has continued to be a losing effort as I've yet to open one even after adding 10 or so packs to my total.  Maybe next week!

Oath of the Gatewatch is now out on Magic Online and this week I'll be showing you two OGW drafts that I did.  These are the first "real" drafts I've done since it's hard to count the triple Oath draft I did last week, but a lot of principles from that draft can be taken into the real format.  Firstly, you can't really draft with BFZ needing to be good for it to make your deck function.  If you don't have a deck by the end of pack 2 then you're not going to have a deck at all.  What BFZ should do is support whatever strategy is available for you in 2x OGW.  There are strategies that only work when you add the BFZ pack (such as Swarm Surge.dek) and if you're trying to do that then I recommend that the card(s) you want from BFZ be commons only since you'll have a higher chance of actually seeing them.

So having only had a single triple Oath draft and triple BFZ drafts for prior experience, I had to use my knowledge of the format as it pertained to my set review and the mechanics of Oath to help guide me through the draft.  Before the draft I made a list of first pick cards and cards that were unplayable to help guide me from P1P1 and to avoid drafting any card that wasn't worth having in my deck.

OGW Draft Analysis

Above are the rares and mythics I would be happy to first pick.  Almost all the mythics are good so if you open one then you're sitting pretty comfortable to start the draft off.  Out of the 42 rares in the set I saw 16 cards that I would be happy to start out my draft with.  This isn't to say that the other 30 rares aren't good, it's just that they either don't offer raw power or need other cards to make them good.  There are some cards in this list that seem out of place, so I'm going to take the time to explain them.  Mirrorpool is a card that can double up on any good card you cast throughout the game.  You either make a copy of the best creature you have or you can copy a removal spell if you get to the late game.  Mirrorpool taps for mana and the activated ability can't be countered, so it's a free roll for the most part.  Captain's Claws seems a little weak but the point of power is not irrelevant and this is a great start to an Ally deck where the 1/1 Ally can trigger Rally.  Sylvan Advocate is good early and good late giving it a rating that not most cards can match.

Next up are the uncommons I would first pick if the rare/mythic I open isn't very exciting.  The first thing you'll notice is that the only gold card I put here is Joraga Auxiliary.  Normally I wouldn't put a gold card since it requires you to commit to two colors right off the bat, but even so I think it's quite the powerful card.  The body is respectable for 3 mana and once you get to the late game you're able to pump your team and make sure that you have mana advantage even if you don't have spells to cast.  Given time Joraga Auxiliary will take over the game and must be dealt with.  It's not as strong as Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage, but it's close enough.  Your first pick uncommon is either going to be a solid creature with upside or good removal.

There's only a few commons I would consider strong enough to first pick and these are it.  Either they are creatures that can neutralize another creature or they're removal spells.  Green gets to be green at common with Tajuru Pathwarden and Canopy Gorger, two excellent creatures that are better in a world with less giant Eldrazi running around.  Isolation Zone is the best common in my opinion and is worthy of taking over a lot of uncommons and rares due to how (mostly) unconditional the removal is.  Oblivion Strike would tie Isolation Zone is not for the fact that I believe black to be a weaker color than white.

Lastly we have fringe/unplayable cards.  These are cards that either need to be in a very specific archetype (Surge) or they're not worth playing at all. Despite it being free, Bone Saw is not a card you should be playing.  +1 Power won't do much for you in combat and the fact that you're down a card that likely won't make too much of a difference can be backbreaking.  I will admit that putting Baloth Pup here is a mistake.  At first I thought it was a 3-4 mana creature and now just realize it's a 2 mana creature.  It's definitely a playable card (even if I still think it's not strong).

OGW Draft #1

For all intents and purposes you can say I "forced" red and you'd be mostly correct.  Chandra, Flamecaller is quite the card and it would take a lot for me to switch from red to another color.  White was clearly open and I took powerful white cards when given the opportunity but there wasn't enough chances for me to stray from white to another open color.  I felt green was open throughout the packs and I believe I was correct, but every time there was a point where I would take the first/second good green card I was also shown a decent red card to go along with my Chandra.  There was certainly a path where I take green and cut red early in pack 2 but Chandra was my best card in both red and white making it difficult to go against the powerful planeswalker.  Instead I kept taking red and white with a few picks being hedge picks into green but those never really panned out.

In any case I ended up with a solid red/white deck that had two powerful cards in Planar Outburst and Chandra, Flamecaller.  With a bunch of removal and bombs I felt confident in my chances to 3-0 the pod.  Round 1 I made a misplay in game 2.  For some reason when I cast Planar Outburst I didn't attack with my Cinder Hellion.  I should have attacked no matter what because even though I thought the attack/damage wouldn't matter, it absolutely would matter.  By attacking I'm giving my opponent the chance to make a mistake by either taking the damage or making a bad block.  If my opponent decides to (somehow) double block with Eldrazi Skyspawner and Jwar Isle Avenger, then I don't need to cast Planar Outburst anymore. Instead I can play Expedition Raptor and Kor Sky Climber and have a better board position.  I think I got too excited about getting value from my Planar Outburst that it ended up making me cast it prematurely.  

Round 2 was just a mismatch from the start of game 2.  I was on the backfoot in game 2 but I could still get back in the game with Planar Outburst.  Unfortunately for me even though I managed to cast it I had taken a lot of damage already and the Blisterpod giving my opponent an attacker meant that I still didn't have any reprieve from taking damage.  One Kozilek's Pathfinder later and I'm toast.  Game 3 was over before it even began.  I put myself on the play and drew a 6 card hand that could only let me be aggressive.  With my opponent having big beefy creatures I couldn't sit around and play a long game, especially with no Chandra/Outburst in hand.  I played the game as the aggressor and my opponent was able to have the right defenses to overwhelm and take the match.  I believe that if we replay that match over and over I'm about 10-20% to emerge the victor.

Game 1 of Round 3 I pull the trigger on an Awaken Planar Outburst believing my opponent has no cards in hand when I do it.  If I realized that my opponent has cards in hand I'm very likely to not cast it and instead pass with Stasis Snare mana up.  If I wait to cast it then I'm very likely to win the game and by casting it when I did I put myself in a position where I could have lost the game.  Luckily for me I drew a Cinder Hellion that was able to help me deal the last few points of damage.  I nearly threw that game and I was quite fortunate to have my deck bail me out.  Game 2 I was able to put pressure on my opponent and deal quite a bit of damage before the game came to a board stall with me having 2 Zada's Commando that let me deal 1 damage per turn even though no attacks were possible.  A timely Chandra forced my opponent to attack her and leave me with a window to attack back for the win.

OGW Draft #2

Looking back on it, I shouldn't have taken red cards (except for Kozilek's Return) over serviceable green cards.  In pack 2 I took Cinder Hellion over Saddleback Lagac and that's a mistake.  The Lagac helps the Swarm Surge strategy by making my scions actual creatures and I can make a Scion Summoner an actual threat by making it a 3/3.  It also would have helped my curve as I was lacking in 4 drops at that point in the draft.  If I draft the Lagac I have less incentive to stray away from black and therefore make it more likely that I'm on board with the Swarm Surge plan in pack 3.  It's also more likely that I take Brood Butcher in pack 3 and that would be a great addition to a G/B deck since I'm able to use my scions as removal if I start to flood out.  I was correct in drafting green but waffled between black and red as my second color and that did cost me a lot in the last pack as well as in Round 1.  I already covered it in the videos but I was wrong to side into red during round 1.  By bringing in red I make my scions a lot weaker and I lose the free win that Swarm Surge was supposed to give me.  I went against what I was drafting towards and it ended up costing me.

Conclusion

Opening 3 of the most expensive/best mythics in the set is a good way to start out my drafting, although I can't expect that to keep on happening.  I believe I drafted about average, which means I have a lot to learn before I can become proficient in the format.  The real challenge/learning will begin when 8-4s start and the best players are playing and making the correct picks.  For now I'll be happy with my "4-2" record and hope to keep it going. What I know for sure is that green is an actual color now given the fact that it has an identity.  Canopy Gorger and Tajuru Pathwarden are great reasons to be green because they'll likely be the biggest creatures around.  I suspect white is the best color in this format, but that's a very early/uninformed opinion so I would take that with a grain of salt.  Next week I'll be back with drafts and/or sealed queues, I'm not sure what it'll be just yet, it mostly depends on what is available once release events start.  If you have any comments, questions, or concerns leave them in the comments section below.

Thanks for reading/watching!