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By: MarcosPMA, nn
Feb 10 2015 1:00pm
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Hello and welcome to another edition of Sealed Success!  Hopefully I'll be able to actually finish/save what I write this time as opposed to my computer dying without me having saved at all.

This past weekend was Pro Tour weekend and even though I normally look forward to PT weekend, this weekend I wanted to see more than any other PT I've seen.  Modern is my format of choice and getting to see high level pros tackle the format is something that I can't pass up on.  I also wanted to see how the format would shake up compared to what I thought would be happening, and for the most part my predictions were correct although I didn't expect to see so much Burn in the meta.  It's not surprising in terms of pure metagaming, but I didn't think it would actually happen.  Burn is one of those decks that can beat Jund/Junk style decks quite easily, but it's not a deck that people play so you don't have to prepare much for it.  My prediction was that Storm might be well positioned as I thought graveyard hate would be minimal at best.  That said, Eidolon of the Great Revel is almost impossible to beat and I wouldn't have been happy to play Storm with so much burn running around. 

Besides that, I look forward greatly to watching the drafts on Day 1 and 2.  It gives us a great insight into what the limited format looks like and what cards/archetypes are favored while drafting.  Fate Reforged adds a lot of nuances into Fate/Khans Limited and it makes what colors you end up drafting much more of an uncertainty as opposed to Khans.  In Khans you could just fall into the open clan and/or draft 4-5 color and that would lead you with a serviceable deck at the bare minimum.  With the introduction of Fate and hardly any incentives to be 3+ colors in pack 1, the question becomes: Do I draft a 2 color deck, or do I jump into a clan and play a 3 color deck with less than optimal manafixing?  Adding a color to your deck in pack 2 is a real cost because you end up having to use valuable early picks in pack 3 on manafixing if you want to have a good manabase.  Alternatively you can just play basics of your splash color, but that can lead to color screw and that can very much cost you games in the long run.

Luckily for us pro players have drafted extensively for the PT and have more or less figured out how Fate/Khans Limited will shake out.  We're able to use this knowledge for our own drafts and further increase our chances of doing well in Limited.  I'd like to take a look at how the pros approached the draft and see what we can discover about their strategies.

Day 1 Draft - Luis Scott-Vargas

  • My Pack 1 impression is that LSV is not remotely interested in being red, or at the very least didn't see anything powerful enough to be in red. There were some decent red cards like Mardu Scout and Vaultbreaker running around but they were pretty much ignored even when he was not solidified in a 2nd color.  Perhaps this speaks to the power level of the clans in pack 2/3 as you'd rather be Abzan than Mardu if you were still mono white early in pack 1.  Although it's very unlikely that he'll be in some sort of Abzan/BW deck since he's declined to take black cards since the power level was fairly low.
  • Pack 2 impression is that not going into red was a correct choice.  The power level of the red cards were pretty low and there wasn't any incentive to be red.  Going along with that, there was no reason to be Jeskai either in pack 2.  Even though I have an irrational love for Efreet Weaponmaster, that and Warden of the Eye are not enough to make you a Jeskai deck.
  • Pack 3 impression is the same as Pack 2.  No reason to be in red, or any other color for that matter, and the power level of Jeskai Ascendancy is so high compared to the rest of the pack that you'd take it no matter what.  I think what we can learn from this is that there's no reason to force 3+ colors if the payoffs aren't there.  LSV never saw a reason to be in red and kept drafting the open colors even if they were slightly below average.

Day 1 Draft - Josh Utter-Leyton

  • Pack 1 impressions: The Battle Brawler pick really defined what Josh wanted to do in pack 1.  Battle Brawler is more often than not a BW or BR card because you need a card from one of the other colors to make it better than a 2/2 for 2.  This pick also is a statement at what he thinks of Shu Yun + Jeskai Sage/Lotus Path Djinn + Lightform vs Battle Brawler + Lightform.  The Harsh Sustenance pick seems like a great signal, but because we know LSV is white, it's not an indication that white is/could be open, but rather that BW specifically is open.  The Channel Harm is quite the red herring because even though it is a good white card, it creates the possibility that white was relatively weak/dry early on and that it's actually open because a strong white color made it late.  Black dried up a bit after the Harsh Sustenance pick but overall not a bad place to start the draft.  Biggest lesson to take away is the preference for BW.
  • Pack 2 impressions: Pretty weak pack in my opinion, although Abzan was open as Josh got passed Abzan Charm and 2 Abzan Guides and those are definitely reasons to be Abzan.  He still stuck with BW however and it was pretty clear that the options in white weren't great which is to be expected since LSV is passing to Josh just a few seats away.  I won't say it was a mistake to move into BW, but it definitely didn't pay off in this pack.
  • Pack 3 impressions:  Same here as was in pack 2, the payoff for BW wasn't completely there, but High Sentinels can just win games so there's that.  A key in this draft was that there wasn't a huge reason to be in 3 colors even if the 2 color deck that was being drafted wasn't the best. The gold cards that you expect to see just weren't there and/or not enough of them to make drafting a 3rd color a viable strategy.

Triple Fate Reforged Drafts

I always get a kick out of drafting triple small sets because the feel is so much different than triple large set and it gives you a better understanding of which commons are better than the others once you start drafting small-large-large.  Going into my first draft I didn't really think about what strategy I wanted/what colors were the best.  I figured white would be the best color since it's the best color in Fate/Khans draft and didn't really think it would change much.  Other than that I figured I would just first pick the rare and see what happens after that.

  •  I waffled a bit during pack 2 about whether I wanted to be green or red but once Outpost Siege happened in pack 3 I wasn't going to pass that up.  The siege cycle in Fate Reforged is just sick and if you have them out for a couple of turns you're more than likely to win the game.  Game 3 of the 2nd round is a heart breaker.  Orc Sureshot is a huge beating and it didn't help that he had the 2nd one.  I think I was just a little too far behind to come back from that.  

  •  Perhaps I shouldn't have taken Arcbond in pack 3 over a Sandsteepe Outcast.  I knew Arcbond was a good card, but I forgot it was red until after I had picked it and I think it hurt me a bit in the end.  Aven Surveyor isn't as good in triple Fate as it is in Khans.  The tempo boost isn't really that relevant since in Khans you're negating their turn 3 play and keeping them off their morph creature until they can hardcast it.  Here it's probably better to make it a 3/3 since you're not gaining a lot of tempo and the 2/2 body is actually weak.  Game 1 of Round 2 I should have waited on Pressure Point instead of using it to tap the Mardu Strike Leader.  The Strike Leader doesn't do too much damage if I let it attack and my best bet to win is via fliers so I should have let him attack and then have the option next turn to tap if I need to.  He probably also commits more to his attack on the turn I Channel Harm if I just play a land and pass.  I think by me waiting too long makes it more likely that I have it. Game 2 I should have bounced the Retainers instead of the Sibsig Host since it's harder for him to cast that than the Sibsig Host.  In the end I don't think I stood a chance against that deck.

  • The draft went relatively well and I think it was the best deck I've drafted so far.  That said, I think I took too much damage in game 2 of round 2 and should have used my Arcbond earlier.  I probably still die to his dragons but I have a better chance to stabilize/race if I'm at a higher life total.  As it stands I only have 6 lands in play by turn 12 so our mana situation didn't help us in that game.  I probably should have not picked Aven Surveyor first pick in pack 1.  It's just not that impressive in this format and I should stop looking at it through a Fate/Khans focus when I'm drafting triple Fate.

Conclusion

  • I only did the Day 1 drafts today, next week I'll talk about the Day 2 drafts and see if they differ any differently than what we saw on Day 1.  From what we saw in those 2 drafts it's possible that both drafters and/or Channel Fireball prefer a 2 color approach to the format, or perhaps the packs were too shallow to support a 3 color deck and gave less incentive to do so.  I'm inclined to believe that it's a mix of both that led both players to draft a 2 color deck.  If this holds up then it would be that I was correct in predicting that we would see more 2 color decks due to Fate Reforged, but if that's not the case then I don't mind being wrong.
  • Triple Fate is an interesting format.  2/2s are everywhere and if you want to get a trump then you need to draft cards that can beat a 2/2 in combat.  The dragon cycle at uncommon seem really strong and can close out a game very quickly since it's hard to actually trade with one in combat.  Because of all the 2/2s running around something like Douse in Gloom is extremely good removal and something like Sandblast is less desirable but still strong.  Mostly everything dies to the common removal so if you can trade off creatures early you can save your removal for actual bombs.  I believe white is not as strong as it is in Fate/Khans and it's quite likely that black is the best color in triple Fate.  Aven Surveyor is not great unless you want a 5 mana 3/3.  I suspect the Runemarks are playable but you have to be careful to not get blown out by instant speed removal.  Reach of Shadows seems too clunky for Fate but is probably a necessary evil against the dragon cycle.

Thank you guys for reading/watching!!

P.S. - If you want to follow me as I do the FNM Hero challenge you can do so here.