Editorial Section:
It's been a while since I've dug into the pack prices of the different types of packs. To that end, I ran the numbers based on the values of the cards contained for the first week of April 2010.
Set
|
Pack Price |
Draft Value |
Sealed Value |
| ALA |
1.728388 |
6.82151252 |
13.64302504 |
| CON |
2.456125 |
|
|
| ARB |
2.637 |
|
|
| M10 |
2.148054 |
6.44416221 |
12.88832442 |
| ME3 |
2.697127 |
8.091380952 |
16.1827619 |
| ZEN |
2.011307 |
7.275906145 |
15.79379672 |
| WWK |
3.253292 |
|
|
| TE |
3.09049 |
10.53276224 |
21.06552448 |
| ST |
2.440455 |
|
|
| EX |
5.001818 |
|
|
| UZ |
3.59 |
10.7868 |
21.57 |
Okay, now let's dig into those details!
What we see is pretty much what many of us would expect after having watched prices of singles for a good long while. Namely, that Legacy sets have to offer as far as where the value lies:
Top 20 Urza's Saga Cards:
Tolarian Academy, 23, Rare
Exploration, 22, Rare
Gaea's Cradle, 20, Rare
Argothian Enchantress, 15, Rare
Show and Tell, 14, Rare
Serra's Sanctum, 10, Rare
Sneak Attack, 9, Rare
Smokestack, 9, Rare
Yawgmoth's Will, 7.5, Rare
Back to Basics, 7, Rare
Stroke of Genius, 6, Rare
Gamble, 5.5, Rare
Time Spiral, 4.5, Rare
Gilded Drake, 4, Rare
Phyrexian Tower, 4, Rare
Goblin Lackey, 4, Uncommon
Karn, Silver Golem, 4, Rare
Fluctuator, 3, Rare
Ill-Gotten Gains, 3, Rare
Lightning Dragon, 3, Rare
Top 20 Tempest Block Cards:
(Survival of the Fittest), 39, Rare
Mox Diamond, 34, Rare
Oath of Druids, 30, Rare
(City of Traitors), 26, Rare
Wasteland, 19, Uncommon
(Recurring Nightmare), 15, Rare
(Manabond), 15, Rare
Grindstone, 13, Rare
Intuition, 11, Rare
Time Warp, 9, Rare
(Sphere of Resistance), 8, Rare
Reflecting Pool, 7, Rare
Dream Halls, 7, Rare
Scroll Rack, 6.5, Rare
Living Death, 6, Rare
Volrath's Stronghold, 5.5, Rare
Earthcraft, 5, Rare
(Cataclysm), 5, Rare
(Hatred), 4.5, Rare
Cursed Scroll, 4.5, Rare
And lastly Mirage Block:
Lion's Eye Diamond, 60. Rare
Null Rod, 41. Rare
Vampiric Tutor, 38. Rare
Natural Order, 36. Rare
Phyrexian Dreadnought, 26. Rare
Undiscovered Paradise, 16. Rare
Abeyance, 14. Rare
Enlightened Tutor, 10.5. Uncommon
Lotus Vale, 8.5. Rare
Tithe, 8. Rare
Firestorm, 7. Rare
Anvil of Bogardan, 6. Rare
Mana Web, 5.5. Rare
Serenity, 5. Rare
Mystical Tutor, 4.75. Uncommon
Doomsday, 4.5. Rare
Goblin Bomb, 4. Rare
Crypt Rats, 4. Common
Flash, 4. Rare
Worldly Tutor, 3.5. Uncommon
So that's a lot of data, but what have we learned? First: that Mirage block has the only Common each set's respective top 20 list. That alone should really help subsidize the costs of drafting this April once it gets it's own Nix Tix slot in the schedule. Secondly, Mirage has the most top-heavy costs of any Legacy set block with Lion's Eye Diamonds, etc. Thirdly: M10 has the lowest Expected Value of all the sets... even Alara! And that's pretty impressive.
For those that are curious about the top cards of the Standard sets, I'll list them out below:
Alara block:
Elspeth, Knight-Errant, 34, Mythic
Maelstrom Pulse, 24.5, Rare
Ajani Vengeant, 21.5, Mythic
Knight of the Reliquary, 12.5, Rare
Noble Hierarch, 12, Rare
Progenitus, 11, Mythic
Rafiq of the Many, 9.75, Mythic
Sphinx of the Steel Wind, 9.5, Mythic
Martial Coup, 6.5, Rare
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker, 6.5, Mythic
Sarkhan Vol, 6.5, Mythic
Thornling, 6.25, Mythic
Tezzeret the Seeker, 6.25, Mythic
Filigree Angel, 4.75, Rare
Bloodbraid Elf, 4.5, Uncommon
(Hells Thunder), 4.25, Rare
Lord of Extinction, 4, Mythic
Jenara, Asura of War, 4, Mythic
Ranger of Eos, 3.75, Rare
Maelstrom Archangel, 3.5, Mythic
Zendikar Block:
Jace, the Mind Sculptor, 50.5, Mythic
Lotus Cobra, 8.5, Mythic
Raging Ravine, 8.25, Rare
Iona, Shield of Emeria, 7, Mythic
Eldrazi Monument, 6.75, Mythic
Abyssal Persecutor, 6.5, Mythic
Sorin Markov, 6, Mythic
Avenger of Zendikar, 6, Mythic
Talus Paladin, 5.5, Rare
Nissa Revane, 5.25, Mythic
Celestial Colonnade, 5.25, Rare
Lavaclaw Reaches, 5, Rare
Arid Mesa, 5, Rare
Eye of Ugin, 5, Mythic
Stoneforge Mystic, 4.5, Rare
Marsh Flats, 4.25, Rare
Day of Judgment, 4.25, Rare
Comet Storm, 4, Mythic
Verdant Catacombs, 4, Rare
Rampaging Baloths, 3.75, Mythic
And lastly we have good ol' M10!
Baneslayer Angel, 46, Mythic
Master of the Wild Hunt, 13.75, Mythic
Vampire Nocturnus, 12.5, Mythic
Garruk Wildspeaker, 10.25, Mythic
Time Warp, 8, Mythic
Dragonskull Summit, 6.75, Rare
Jace Beleren, 4.5, Mythic
Ajani Goldmane, 4.25, Mythic
Earthquake, 3.75, Rare
Liliana Vess, 3.75, Mythic
Chandra Nalaar, 3.25, Mythic
Siege-Gang Commander, 3.25, Rare
Glacial Fortress, 3.25, Rare
Sunpetal Grove, 3, Rare
Ball Lightning, 2.75, Rare
Honor of the Pure, 2.25, Rare
Darksteel Colossus, 2, Mythic
Rootbound Crag, 2, Rare
Bogardan Hellkite, 2, Mythic
Great Sable Stag, 2, Rare
Discussion Items:
Official Stance the "Mulligan/Go First" bug:
Alexis_J has been interacting with the MTGO community in regards to the "would you like to play first" + "Would you like to mulligan" lag issues. Essentially there's a fix that should help with this issue coming out in the end of April. Keep an eye out for that fix later this month!
Concerns about the power level of Eldrazi cards in 2 headed Giant:
Some of the spells and creatures in the new Expansion Rize of the Eldrazi have concerned the players; namely some of the 2 HG players. Is it justified concerns or just the typical pre set jitters?
Card Price Discussions:
More of the same stuff from last week, really. Some pretty big movements in the Ally section of Worldwake and some improvements in the Open the Vaults deck.
Cards that moved down revolved around Extended's Dark Depths and more "Classic Only" cards, much like last week. I think we'll continue along this holding pattern until more Rise of the Eldrazi cards are spoiled and push up or down other cards in the format.
Card Price Tables:
Card Price Graphs:
talus paladin chart
entomb chart
filigree angel chart
sunpetal grove chart
harabaz druid chart
master of the wild hunt chart
terravore chart
avenger of zendikar chart
stifle chart
dark confidant chart
harabaz druid chart
sunpetal grove chart
reset chart
kabira evangel chart
open the vaults chart
filigree angel chart
talus paladin chart
solitary confinement chart
immaculate magistrate chart
novablast wurm chart
oath of druids chart
dark depths chart
mox diamond chart
thunder spirit chart
ifh_b?ff efreet chart
tawnos's coffin chart
hand of justice chart
argivian archaeologist chart
abeyance chart
mana drain chart
thunder spirit chart
ifh_b?ff efreet chart
tawnos's coffin chart
hand of justice chart
argivian archaeologist chart
baron sengir chart
serendib efreet chart
preacher chart
lodestone golem chart
voltaic key chart
Conclusion:
Sadly, due to all the number crunching I did this week I wasn't able to really discuss deeply the card price per booster per event data. If there's interest I'll look into that more next week! Thanks!
21 Comments
Funny thread on the mull first bug.
I'm wondering where you're getting the pack price data. 2 tix for a ZEN pack? Or did I read that wrong?
I believe those are actually the Evs per pack. So you can expect to average 2 tickets worth of cards per Zen pack.
So Exodus has an EV that's higher than store price. If you have a pack, you make money just by ripping it open and selling the contents. Interesting.
Correct my memory, but didn't a certain dealer we know and love decide to publicly bow out of purchasing Exodus packs when they came out? ;) (Which may somewhat be causal - reduced supply lending to higher prices.)
Hey, just the guy who bought 100+ Evangels for .10 and then got death threats over it. Who's laughing now?
PS, this time I got 104 Omnaths not counting foils.
Thanks for confirming everyone's opinion of you, I guess...
I'm just sharing my belief of what card is going to have its value explode. There's nothing stopping anyone else from buying the same card right now, I really just cannot comprehend what people seem to have against speculation on the future value of a currently non-valuable commodity.
I somewhat agree on that - it's not as if "Anonymous" bought up evangels the moment they came out, and kept the strangehold on the card - there was plenty of time to get it at the lower price, even AFTER his grab for them was common knowledge and the card spiked and then dipped (as is evidenced by a second rise just now, when the actual deck is in place).
Omnath's mana storing may indeed prove influential when Eldrazi hit. Or Anonymous's prediction could be a bombo. Time will tell. Regardless, 100-200 copies is still reasonably negligible in the big scheme of things.
Summoning Trap looks like another one where this price-rising speculation is taking place - MTGOTraders dropped from about 20 of them to the current 5, and most bots went from 0.1-0.15 to 0.5. Again, could prove handy with RoE's release (although it sidesteps the "casting" trigger), and people might be kicking themselves for not grabbing it at 0.5. There's just no way to tell.
And I won't even touch on Eye of Ugin as far as speculation goes.
Eight of the top ten cards that "fell" (in %) aren't even available online. I dunno, that feels sloppy. Regardless, thanks for these lists as always.
Yeah, cards should not be listed in the price change section until they've been out for two weeks.
What do you mean 8 out of 10 cards that fell aren't available online? I see Oath, Mox D, Dark Depths, and a bunch of Masters Edition cards with negative percentages. The only new one I see is Voltaic Key. Am I reading the charts wrong?
it may be that half the links on the cards in the dropped chart dont lead to anything but traders homepage....ex thunder spirit, ith-bith?, hand of justice, coffin, archaeologist, baron sengir, serendib, and preacher...maybe its a late april fool's joke?
yeah maybe an april fools joke.. I was wondering why anyone would care about the price of a Hand of Justice.
Some of the cards that now exist online thanks to ME2 or ME3 used to appear on the old "PR1" (whatever it was called) tab. And they were never distributed. Most notably, Fork was in there. But so was Baron Sengir, Hand of Justice, Iff Biff, whatever. Some of the cards that had a price adjustment were never distributed. And some that were (Baron Sengir) are appearing on today's list because the undistributed version changed price in their database.
I'm guessing all the boosters are valued at 3.9 or whatever they cost in the store? If that's the case then the numbers arnt really accurate since a draft set of Alara block can be bought for 9 while Zen 11. Even though Ala went up recently because its nix tix for it next week.
Crypt Rats was only valuable because of Pauper, which now has Pestilence. So it'll crash...right?
crypt rats still comes down a turn earlier which has value since goblins can pretty consistently alpha-strike on turn 4. it could (and probably should) fall a little but idk if it'll crash.
True but for most decks Pestilence is harder to kill b4 allowing you to "go off" with it thus u can usually drop it the turn b4 u plan to use it where as with rats this usually was never the case.
I suspect the appeal of the rats will remain in that they are easier to recur. What you may see is Crypt Rats as a main deck card and Pestilence as a better SB one.
Those are some low booster prices! Even Exodus. I'm kind of surprised that cracking a set of ZZW is so close to the value of "cracking" TSE. I would've figured that Zendikar was drafted into oversupply by now. I guess there are some awesome new cards to open in the third booster which is saving it?
ME1/2/3 will have another nix rotation in three months. For next time!
Thank you for crunching all this data. I find it very interesting.