Editorial Section:
When I went into the Local Gaming Store world I expected some difficult overlapping of responsibilities. I expected things like splitting time between MTGO and local players. I expected things like making sacrifices in one area for another... but this week I ran into a situation that I hadn't really expected. I'll share the email that started the whole chain of events in motion:
"I was thinking about getting into some mtg online and I figured I might ask you about it first. I really just want to do some sealed stuff maybe a couple times a month, and then sell off whatever I win or get to keep. Does mtgo have a good following for this, or should I just invest in some real life cards?"
Hmm. Conflict of interest, much? Before I get into how things worked out with that quandary I guess I should cover some particularly hot topics in the world of MTGO. Namely the setup of the short on sale times for Legacy sets.
A lot of people are wondering what is the deal with the short set release for Urza's Saga. Just over a year ago there was an announcement by Wizard's of the Coast about them, located here. The short version can be summed up as so:
"This change supports our classic releases in a few ways. First, short release windows ensure that classic releases are unique and exciting. It also allows us increase the duration of classic set release events, often for the entire release period. Second, a tighter activity focus improves the Magic Online experience for newer players by limiting the number of products they can buy in the store but cannot readily use. We have seen that after the release window, classic based limited events don’t fire regularly and this can make players feel like the bought the ‘wrong’ product. By selling classic packs only during release event periods, we can limit how often this happens. Finally, it gives us the flexibility to have special classic block events in the future. We plan on bringing back classic blocks for limited engagements so newer players and classic players alike can experience these great sets long after they would have been gone."
- Unique and exciting
- Increased length of events
- Less confusion between releases
- Flexibility in the future
Of all these items, only one directly helps the players and I'll cover that first. There were many players that would join during the weeks between events. They would see something like Mirage in the store and buy enough to draft them. The problem is, as we know, that Mirage would rarely fire between the release of Mirage and Visions. This would leave players with a very frustrating purchase of product they couldn't use and itch they couldn't scratch (you know... when you want to draft a specific set, you want to draft *it* not something else in its place). Of all the reasons listed, that is the one that I can seriously get behind. I've personally run into people who just wound up cracking the packs to build decks after they purchased and failed to utilize them the way they wanted.
But what of the other reasons? Personally, I'm not really feeling them. "Unique and exciting"? Well, yeah, I guess they are exciting. In the sense that they routinely excite the player community. But generally not exciting in the good way. It seems as if every release gets another crowd of players that are shocked by the lack of time that the items will be on sale in the store. At this point I think someone in WotC should be weighing the impact of frustration due to between set purchases versus short sales cut-off frustrations.
And as for future flexibility... I haven't really seen much of that yet but I wouldn't be too surprised to see more of this used in the future. The closest thing to this that I've seen is the Nix Tix/Nix Pax events, but that could be done anyway. Granted it has really only been a year since this change came into effect, but even so, there really hasn't been any specific events done to capitalize upon this change. I have a hunch that WotC will be using the popularity of Legacy Online to sell more of these at periodic times. That hunch comes from a fairly long line of seeing Wizard's really understand how to create and amplify sales numbers as needed.
So for those curious or upset about the short time that Urza's will be on sale that should give a little background about the how and why things are the way they are.
Now back to the first part of the editorial section; what to do when my interests collide. In this case I did what I generally do and spell out the positives and negatives as I have seen them. As I'm no stranger to pimping the good parts of MTGO (as an aside, I've actually gotten quite a few of my locals into MTGO via helping them with their collections and filling out decks and whatnot, good times) and the awesomeness of 24x7 playing and the fact that more and more people are playing online all the time. That gives him the benefit of playing whenever he wants. The flip side is that if someone is looking at funding their experience with their pools alone they are going to have a very difficult time doing so thanks to the fact that so many others are trying to do the exact same thing all the time. I haven't heard if he's made a decision yet or not about whether to go into MTGO's sealed waters or if he's just going to be hanging out and getting into Standard or Standard Peasant (the current specialty format of my store). Time will tell, but it's a pretty good time to be into any of the mediums that give you the opportunity to play Magic, be it Paper or Digital.
Discussion items:
As you may have guessed by now there has been a lot of discussion about the way the current "Legacy" sets are released (i.e. Urza's et al) and the ramifications from that breakdown.
Upset about Legacy Release dates-
There is some very heated discussions in this thread (and most of them, actually) about what exactly the benefit is to these temporally challenged release events. The above is a direct discussion but the following two are very similar:
What to do with Urza's Cards version 1, and version 2.
I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about this particular topic, but my initial reaction is as follows: Buy anything banned in Legacy and restricted in Classic. Namely because they should be very cheap and IF they should ever get unbanned/unrestricted, their price will sky rocket. Secondly, to get anything with a particularly niche application or focus. You know, like Tolarian Academy and Ill-Gotten Gains. Cards like that are strong and when they get broken or put to use they are amazing investments.
Another interesting thread is the one that is asking for pack advice. I found this so interesting because it's something that many players run into and may not apply much thought to it. Namely, the issue of what to do with old packs that don't have a queue anymore...
7th Edition Sealed Event:
Get your Promo Pillages! And, um, other 7th Edition stuff... I guess. For those curious the prices go as follows:
Earthquake
Wrath of God
City of Brass
Crypt Rats
Howling Mine
And then we're down into the sub-three-ticket range of cards.
PTQ Schedule for PT: Amsterdam announced!:
Starting on April 18th 2010 the Pro Tour Qualifiers on MTGO for Pro Tour Amsterdam begin!!! Probably a good time to get your cards for your decks of choice right now!
Card Price Discussion:
For yet another week we had more Legacy increases, which isn't particularly a surprise, I don't think. And from the looks of it, Ichorid is going to be the next deck of focus for MTGO Legacy players. If you're heading into a tournament be sure to have at least some plan for dealing with that deck. Tormod's Crypt, Leyline of the Void, Ravenous Trap, and Relic of Progenitus are always good things to have in the sideboard, I imagine.
As for what has been moving down... that's a bit more complex and somewhat bizarre I think. We have Urza's dropping a bit which is somewhat strange based on both the extra Legacy demand (although Tolarian is already banned in Legacy, obv) and the knowledge that Urza's is only on sale for a short time longer. Regardless of those facts though, it has indeed taken a bit of a hit this week with the strong turnouts for sealed and draft that Urza's has been creating. I would consider this to be the time to buy into Urza's singles if you haven't already.
Other oddities moving down is Noble Hierarch and Knight of the Reliquary. While their time in Standard is limited we are right on the edge of the MTGO Standard based PTQ season. I would have to assume that demand for Standard singles is going to jump higher and higher in the very near future!
Card Price Graphs:
wasteland chart
force of will chart
bridge from below chart
ichorid chart
vindicate chart
taiga chart
entomb chart
lion's eye diamond chart
natural order chart
underground sea chart
tarnished citadel chart
cephalid coliseum chart
eureka chart
ichorid chart
goblin ringleader chart
city of solitude chart
goblin piledriver chart
sapling of colfenor chart
vigor chart
city of brass chart
tolarian academy chart
gaea's cradle chart
exploration chart
dark depths chart
noble hierarch chart
knight of the reliquary chart
engineered explosives chart
serra's sanctum chart
show and tell chart
sneak attack chart
hidden stag chart
pariah chart
crater hellion chart
drifting djinn chart
sunder chart
argothian wurm chart
thran quarry chart
priest of gix chart
sporogenesis chart
soul sculptor chart
;
Card Price Tables:
First of all I should probably clear up some confusion I created last week by not labeling my table.. at all. The following table is the EV (of the best case sale scenario) of the respective packs and formats.
So what that means is that for Alara, the Expected Value of the cards in the pack this week is 1.698985 tickets if you were to resell them at dealer's prices. The draft value of the packs of Alara Block would be 6.544485, and so on.
| Set Name |
Pack Price |
Draft Value(EV) |
Sealed Value(EV) |
| ALA |
1.698985 |
6.544485 |
13.08897 |
| CON |
2.317625 |
|
|
| ARB |
2.527875 |
|
|
| M10 |
2.113015 |
6.339044 |
12.67809 |
| ME3 |
2.666841 |
8.000524 |
16.00105 |
| ZEN |
2.016691 |
7.113173 |
15.28945 |
| WWK |
3.079792 |
|
|
| TE |
3.246671 |
10.48031 |
20.96062 |
| ST |
2.357955 |
|
|
| EX |
4.875682 |
|
|
27 Comments
Getting Page Not Found errors on the price graphs
holy crap FoW at 85... I should sell my three and could fill in all the other holes in my collection jeeze
good stuff as always I know I'm one who wanted the Urza release to be longer, had to rush into a draft just so I could get it done before the deadline
and I'm sure I missed this, but whats with MTGOTraders' stock? Wanted to simply grab a fourth Pestil, but even at common it was out of stock
yep cool when I checked early this morning there were 0
Personally, I've had the same problems trying to get random Zendikar stuff too.. it seems they have been getting really really low stock (at least compared to what I was used to seeing a few months ago..*shrug*) But I have a feeling it is due to increased player base and demand for the game more than anything else.
I think the short sales period for classic packs seems a lot more like a money grab than it used to. The reason being that WotC pushed Legacy online before it was ready. This created somewhat of a demand where there might not have been otherwise. I am of the gut feeling however that this can't be the reason WotC did this. They have very rarely made strictly money based decisions in the past that adversely affected the player base so much (other than the horrible push for V3 when it was bad and clearly not ready.) I am sure there is some underlying reason they haven't stated that makes more sense than the pablum we have been fed here. I too do not buy "unique and exciting" or "increased length of events". On the other hand in this extended period of economic devastation it does make sense that WotC would have to pay more attention to it's bottom line to please it's parent company. Keeping the bottom line in the black is crucial. Especially with potentially big changes up ahead. The whole buzz of the innovations for v3.5 etc have died down but some of us can't wait. The disaster that is the V3 UI shall quickly be forgotten when V3.5 comes online er I mean *what's the code word again?*
I am not surprised Urza's singles prices have dropped a little. They were highly inflated by the knowledge that it would only be available for a short time and an expected high demand based on the coming of legacy. I am surprised the crap rares haven't hit the .05 mark yet. That Sapling, Vigor and City of Solitude have gone up speaks to some deck I think though I don't know what it is.
One last thing you list a bunch of packs but not others. No Odyssey, No Mirrodin, No MWV, etc I can't believe those packs have 0 EV or is it because there is no draft current for them? (Nix tix MWV is definitely coming up.)
I just can't justify paying nix pax MVW.. only because the format is so incredibly lame and really there is like 5 money cards in the whole block (Vamp Tutor, LED, Dreadnaught.. after that what.. Abeyance? other uncommon tutors?)
I just wish every month for 2 weeks they'd feature a different "old set" so you can buy it in the store and have "events" for them all week.. maybe that is what we'll get to one day.
Actually, MVW is one of the best, for top end rares, of ANY set you could draft (prices from last week's article):
http://puremtgo.com/articles/state-program-april-2nd-2010
Lion's Eye Diamond, 60. Rare
Null Rod, 41. Rare
Vampiric Tutor, 38. Rare
Natural Order, 36. Rare
Phyrexian Dreadnought, 26. Rare
Undiscovered Paradise, 16. Rare
Abeyance, 14. Rare
Enlightened Tutor, 10.5. Uncommon
Lotus Vale, 8.5. Rare
Tithe, 8. Rare
Firestorm, 7. Rare
Anvil of Bogardan, 6. Rare
Mana Web, 5.5. Rare
Serenity, 5. Rare
Mystical Tutor, 4.75. Uncommon
Doomsday, 4.5. Rare
Goblin Bomb, 4. Rare
Crypt Rats, 4. Common
Flash, 4. Rare
Worldly Tutor, 3.5. Uncommon
As always, I enjoyed the article. I have a question for you economic minded types. I'm considering picking up Ravnica duals over the next few months. Is this a decent time to buy, or should I wait for lower prices to come?
Im hoping the high end ones drop a bit more than they have...right now they seem still ridiculous. On the other hand the low end ones are about where they will be till next season.
They put up 64-man drafts for Urza's. A small something, to be sure, but something none-the-less.
I think there are other considerations that aren't really listed in the communication from WOTC. Namely, that they can only keep people excited with releases for so long, and it can't be constant. Look around... people are just now getting into the excitement of RoE - even though it's a paper release. Roe official spoilers start on the 18th. That sort of stuff hampers efforts, to make the release last longer. If the pushed Urza's release for another week, that would run right into it.
That being said, I honestly think that it probably wouldn't hurt to go right into it. At least not for popular sets like Urza's. It should have been that way for Exodus too - the eternal crowd loved that set - I have no idea why so many other people seemed to not like it.
The pack table is still confusing. Why does one column say "Pack Price" when it is actually the single pack EV? The logical extension of the table which I haven't seen anyone mention yet is that you can sell every pack listed to a bot for more than it's EV (with the possible exception of EX), so you are better off selling your unopened packs and just buying the singles you need with the proceeds.
Ummm... this is axactly why no one ever suggestions cracking packs. but when you draft you have to add in the EV of winning prize pacs, whic is the only reason any packs get cracked online.
What I can't understand is why people continue to fire off M10 queues when it's the lowest at 6.33 and not even as fun as ala, and zen.
I for one will say that M10 has been my favorite set to draft. Probably because its not as hard to learn. To each his own, but I loathed drafting ALA
I just want to say thanks for adding this!
I find it very useful, for deciding which draft to do. :-)
im totally crushing my 4322 saga drafts, but hate to hear the value is tanking. i think in the long run the money is still going to be there, i mean think about the fact that mtgo is going to be around for a looong time, right? well im hoping so, well anyway, in 2 or 3 years when urza block is not as prevelent it will rise again,
whatcha think?
I'm sure that he found out that mtgo limited is a very unforgiving environment, and that it is indeed a tough place to learn the ropes. But the advantage of being able to play it when he isn't able to make it into the store for events is undeniable.
I also think he will be doing his best to get into his local store and invest as well, because we all know magic is best played amongst friends and like-minded individuals.
; )
Why is it at 15 tix? This isnt MVW or some other old school packs.
thanks for toeing the company bullshit, hamtastic. but the truth is that the reason urza's saga is only available for two weeks is so people will enter tournaments instead as their only means of getting cards. and as we know, playing in tournaments is considerably more costly than buying boosters by themselves. wotc has not once thought of the customer above the bottom line, and they certainly won't be starting now.
i'm just surprised they haven't make it illegal to trade/sell urza's saga singles on bots (to keep the game unique and exciting no doubt).
That makes really no sense. The first part is a little cynical but plausible but the rest is just nonsense.
well in my personal opinion 90% of complaints get so hyperbole'd in order to draw attention to themselves that they end up being utter BS in the end...(example: people were already saying legacy was going to fail because a PE on easter day didnt fire)
That...Makes perfect sense, right? Right?
Come on, man. Give the makers of the game we love a LITTLE more credit then THAT.
If you want to crack boosters of UZ then it is a far, far better deal to pay 15 for a draft than it is to pay 12 just crack 3 packs on your own. There are two reasons why: prize packs, and the obvious drafting. You don't have to rare draft (or steal all the Dark Rituals) to come out ahead of a random booster, either. People should already be entering tournaments as their primary means of acquiring cards! It's really cheaper. Buying a pack for $4 and cracking it with no incentive is the worst thing you can do.
And if you want playsets of certain cards then buying singles is the only practical way to do it. If you're trying to acquire cards then play in events. If you're trying to acquire specific cards then buy them as singles.
Obviously packs of UZ will leave the store tomorrow. But won't the queues immediately be replaced with nix-pax queues? I know that nix-pax queues naturally fire less, and therefore their prize packs drop in value slightly, but won't UZ be different?
People are demanding more than 2 weeks of store time for this set. But it's not like it's going anywhere? The prize support will decrease, but the cost to enter and the availability will remain the same. If people are playing for the limited environment (take the black cards, or so I heard) and for certain chase rares, then they should continue to do so all next week, right? And the week after that until ROE comes out? (Well, for us digital people that means May.)
Also, this isn't EX. We'll get a bit more UZ during the UZ/UZ/UL and UZ/UL/UD events. Those restricted cards are going to drop further within a year, like Necropotence. Tolarian Academy and especially Yawgmoth's Will will never be allowed as a 4-of in Vintage, and there's no chance of Will being allowed in Legacy. I mean, zero. Will never happen. Academy in Legacy has a 0.005% chance of happening someday. And if it does happen it'll do what Gush did in Vintage. However IGG is definitely a good card to invest in. And also I think, Sneak Attack. In paper it's very expensive because it's a popular casual card. Online, we're paying a lot for Gaea's Cradle, but Sneak Attack just kind of died.