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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Jan 27 2012 9:30am
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Hammie’s The State of the Program for January 27th     

This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
 

News and Discussion Items:

Dark Ascension!: The entire set is spoiled, and the set looks pretty good. By the time you read this, I’ll be getting set for paper prereleases – both the ones I will be playing in and those I will be judging. Paper prereleases will have a new thing: some number of players will begin the event as “monsters.” Whenever the monsters win an event, the losers also become monsters. Can humans survive the prerelease? More importantly, will wizards try to import this to online prereleases. In paper, monsters get stickers to identify them as such.   Wizards could do something like this online, either by modifying the avatar (e.g. a red box around it), creating a “monster” emblem players would begin the game with, or adding something to players’ inventories. I could live with the emblems, but I don’t want anyone screwing with my avatar, and I certainly don’t want more warmarks. 
 
Emblems could be cool, though.
 
Paper prereleases are January 28-29th. Dark Ascension should be online a couple weeks later. As of Wednesday am, though, Wizards has not officially announced the online prereleases. 
 
Weekly Blog: Not much news from the blog, not much.  In fact, nothing.   As I write this Wednesday morning, we have no blog post.
 
Tournaments:
Thursday Night Magic Online (TNMO) for the upcoming week (February  2nd): M12 draft. This is as cheap as draft gets – NIX TIX Swiss. The TNMO card for February is an alternative art Glistener Elf.  
 
Wizards will be hosting a Ravinca block Sealed event on January 28th, and running NIX PAX Ravnica drafts all week.   Given the price on Ravnica lands (Hallowed Fountain is currently the ninth most expensive card on MTGO), this should have a decent EV. It is a bit of a lottery, though. Most of the rest of the cards in the set are cheap, so the value of busted packs is also low: Ravnica $ 1.43, Dissension $ 2.61, and Guildpact $ 1.82. If you want to break even, you either need to open a dual land, or win some packs. NIX TIX drafts will start a week from now.
 
Let’s look at the Constructed Tournaments breakdown for the week of January 18th    through January 24th.    125 constructed events fired this week. Down a bit, but respectable.  Modern is back – amazing what a PTQ season can do. Pauper is doing well as always, and both Classic and Legacy fired an event.
 
Format
Fired
Format
Fired
Standard
42
Standard Singleton
0
Pauper
28
Kaleidoscope
0
Innistrad Block Const.
21
100–card Singleton
0
Classic
1
Modern
32
Legacy
1
Extended
0
 
FYI: I got the number fired from the list of results, here.  
 

Cutting Edge Tech:

Standard:  I think we need something to shake up the format. Dark Ascension cannot come fast enough. The SCG Open in DC had the following decks in the Top 16:
 
UW Delver:  8
UW Humans: 4
UW Control: 2
UB Control: 1
Grixis Control: 1
R/B Metalcraft: 1
Infect: 1
Non-blue decks: 2
 
The only non-blue deck in the Top 8 was this RB Metalcraft build.
 

 

Modern: Modern is booming, as PTQ season heats up. Modern is firing a lot of online events, including some PTQs. The format is really varied. I keep picking up new decks and archetypes. I played this deck at the last Overdrive! event, and it was great. I eventually lost to a Living End deck, but I think the loss was due to pilot error. Very strong deck.  I love the Gifts package in the sideboard.  If you cast Gifts and find only Unburial Rights and a creature, both cards go into the graveyard.

 

 

 

Innistrad Block Constructed: IBC is a really popular format. Here’s another new archetype I haven’t seen much of. Enjoy it while you can. Odds are this will all change once Dark Ascension is in the mix.
 
Bloodgift Planeswalkers
Feefyfohfum,Winner, ISD Block Constructed Premier #3314387 on 01/23/2012
Creatures
4 Bloodgift Demon
4 cards

Other Spells
3 Brimstone Volley
3 Curse of Death's Hold
4 Devil's Play
4 Garruk Relentless
3 Geistflame
4 Liliana of the Veil
1 Rolling Temblor
4 Sever the Bloodline
2 Traveler's Amulet
2 Witchbane Orb
30 cards
Lands
1 Forest
10 Mountain
2 Shimmering Grotto
9 Swamp
4 Woodland Cemetery
26 cards

Bloodgift Demon
 
I tried playing some IBC.   I don’t have most of the cards, so I played a RUG Mulch deck.  I am not impressed with the format.  It is really swing and kinda stupid.  Still, blocks with a single set are like that.
 
Legacy: Legacy is back. SCG had a Legacy open in LA, and several Daily Events fired. The SCG Top 8 is interesting: Punishing Maverick (1st, 5th and 9th), UW Stoneblade, Reanimator (3rd and 7th), Maverick, Dredge, and RUG Tempo.    . 
 

 

Mono Red
Austin Youst, Winner, SCG Legacy Open WashingtonDC
Creatures
3 Hellspark Elemental
3 Figure of Destiny
3 Keldon Marauders
4 Goblin Guide
13 cards

Other Spells
4 Lava Spike
4 Price of Progress
4 Chain Lightning
4 Flame Rift
4 Rift Bolt
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Fireblast
28 cards
Lands
17 Mountain
2 Barbarian Ring
19 cards

Figure of Destiny
 
We also saw an actual combo deck make the Top 8. 

 

 
Classic  Classic fired one event this week: details here. It was pretty much same ole’ same ol’ – with the emphasis on the old. Xcorpio’s Hermit Druid deck reappeared. It’s seems like it’s been months since that made Top 8. Maybe this was just one last fling before Grafdigger’s Cage locks that deck up, too.
 
Bugs: Fact or Fiction is still bugged online. The caster ends up choosing what goes in each pile. The workaround in Classic matches is to simply tell your opponent what the split should be, and the caster splits it that way. Not perfect, but Classic players are a decent bunch, and don’t abuse that bug.  More dangerous: (Painter’s Servant) is also bugged, and that bug crashes games in ways that even a restart won’t fix. Basically, one player gets booted from the tournament – and it appears to be at random.   Sometimes the player with Painter’s Servant gets booted, sometimes the opponent.
 

Card Prices:  

Notes: All my prices come from MTGOTraders.com. For cards that are available in multiple sets, I am quoting the most recent set’s price. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Primeval Titan is from M12. If I list a card as out of stock, don’t assume you can’t buy it.  MTGOTraders stocks their Bots first, so the MTGOTradersBot1, MTGOTradersBot2, MTGOTradersBot3, or MTGOTradersBot4 often have the cards in stock even when the online store is out. Now, on to prices.
 
Standard prices are fluctuating. Everyone is waiting for Dark Ascension, and no one is really sure what will be good then. At least, I think that’s what’s happening.
 
Standard & Block Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 24.38
Y
$ 22.65
+ $ 1.73
$ 8.31
Y
$ 8.36
- $ 0.05
$ 19.73
Y
$ 18.18
+ $ 1.55
$ 17.40
Y
$ 18.96
+ $ 1.56
$ 5.50
Y
$ 4.66
+ $ 0.84
$ 1.53
Y
$ 1.62
- $ 0.09
$ 16.22
Y
$ 15.87
+ $ 0.35
$ 18.33
Y
$ 17.25
+ $ 1.08
$ 10.59
Y
$ 10.69
- $ 0.10
$ 11.87
Y
$ 11.67
+ $ 0.20
$ 12.56
Y
$ 12.30
+ $ 0.26
$ 12.16
Y
$ 11.50
+ $ 0.66
$ 16.08
Y
$ 15.49
+ $ 0.59
 $ 10.99
Y
 $ 10.91
+ $ 0.08
$ 4.47
Y
$ 4.19
+ $ 0.28
$ 23.38
Y
$ 21.66
+ $ 1.72
$ 24.89
Y
$ 25.49
- $ 0.60
$ 37.96
Y
$ 39.40
- $ 1.44
$ 9.23
Y
$ 9.23
---
$ 9.37
Y
$ 10.69
- $ 1.32
$ 13.25
Y
$ 14.00
- $ 0.75
$ 19.06
Y
$ 18.36
+ $ 0.70
$ 16.32
Y
$ 16.92
- $ 0.60
$ 8.38
Y
$ 10.69
- $ 2.31
$7.49
Y
$8.69
- $ 1.20
 
 
 
 
 
Modern prices are falling. Breeding Pool fell hard – seems to help having NIX PAX events going on. That tells the hoarders and speculators that Wizards is going to reduce prices on the Ravnica duals.
 
Modern Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 19.94
Y
$ 25.08
- $ 5.14
$ 7.97
Y
$ 10.52
- $ 2.55
$ 26.11
Y
$ 29.56
- $ 3.45
$ 34.61
Y
$ 37.63
- $ 3.02
(Scalding Tarn)
$ 5.47
Y
$ 6.25
- $ 0.78
$ 4.53
Y
$ 4.61
- $ 0.08
$ 9.69
Y
$ 9.53
+ $ 0.16
$ 24.58
Y
$ 24.42
+ $ 0.16
$ 12.44
Y
$ 13.11
- $ 0.67
$ 5.38
Y
$ 6.15
- $ 0.57
$ 77.96
Y
$ 82.50
- $ 4.54
$ 25.36
Y
$ 23.98
+ $ 1.38
$ 4.36
Y
$ 5.23
- $ 0.77
$ 12.39
Y
$ 22.06
- $ 9.67
$ 27.21
Y
$ 24.16
+ $ 2.95
$ 9.96
Y
$ 10.29
- $ 0.34
$ 34.20
Y
$ 35.12
- $ 0.92
Legacy prices are generally falling. Force of Will has given back a bit more of its big jump two weeks ago. Scavenging Ooze has come back down, while Vindicate is climbing. Interesting.  
 
Legacy Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 109.18
Y
$ 110.39
- $ 1.21
$ 24.79
Y
$ 31.12
- $ 6.33
$ 74.70
Y
$ 70.97
+ $ 3.73
$ 27.20
Y
$ 27.20
---
$ 34.83
Y
$ 37.30
- $ 2.47
$ 28.91
Y
$ 28.91
---
$ 26.83
Y
$ 27.70
- $ 0.87
$ 19.55
Y
$ 19.55
---
$ 10.97
Y
$ 11.53
- $ 0.56
$ 36.77
Y
$ 36.77
---
$ 41.16
Y
$ 39.22
+ $ 1.94
$ 5.83
Y
$ 6.36
- $ 0.53
$ 8.69
Y
$ 8.14
+ $ 0.55
$ 1.79
Y
$ 2.56
- $ 0.77
$ 19.34
Y
$ 19.40
- $ 0..06

Note: cards which are staples in both Legacy and Classic may appear in either list. If you don’t see a card in one list, check the other.

 
Classic prices are dropping just a touch. Really, nothing much happening here.     
 
Classic Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 105.56
Y
$ 107.41
- $ 1.85
$ 17.44
Y
$ 17.44
---
$ 10.70
Y
$ 10.70
---
$ 9.56
Y
$ 10.09
- $ 0.53
$ 14.82
Y
$ 14.82
---
$ 19.95
Y
$ 18.89
+ $ 1.06
$ 10.58
Y
$ 10.58
---
$ 7.66
Y
$ 7.66
---
$ 35.80
Y
$ 35.80
---
$ 40.22
Y
$ 40.22
---
$ 2.92
Y
$ 2.92
---
$ 8.80
Y
$ 9.28
- $ 0.48
$ 19.94
Y
$ 19.94
---
 
The Top Ten:
Here’s this week’s list of the top ten most expensive non-foil, non-promo cards on MTGO. A few weeks ago, Natural Order and Wasteland fell off the chart. This week, the Masques block disappeared, with a Standard Sword and Modern lands taking their places.         
 
Most Expensive Cards
Price
Set
Last Week
$ 109.18
MED I
# 1
$ 105.56
Mirage
# 2
$ 77.40
Future Sight
# 3
$ 70.97
Apocalypse
# 4
$ 40.22
Weatherlight
# 5
Sword of War and Peace
$ 39.11
New Phyrexia
# 6
$ 39.10
Apocalypse
#7
$ 36.77
Odyssey
# 10
$ 35.81
 
Dissension
# 8
$ 35.80
Visions
n/a

Weekly Highlights:

It’s paper prerelease weekend.   I’ve been busy getting ready. That's all. 
 
PRJ
 
“one million words” on MTGO.

 

4 Comments

WOW... what happened to by themagicman_22 at Fri, 01/27/2012 - 20:42
themagicman_22's picture
5

WOW... what happened to waste!?

just quessing by one million words at Sat, 01/28/2012 - 06:48
one million words's picture

I would guess that Legacy players are shifting to Modern, and fewer of the Legacy decks tat remain are running Wasteland. A significant drop in demand would bring the price back into line. Wasteland is an uncommon, after all.

Ya I'm glad I liquidated my by Untoward_Parable at Sun, 01/29/2012 - 04:14
Untoward_Parable's picture
5

Ya I'm glad I liquidated my foray into classic before the real drops happened, too many downward pressures on wasteland to be sure.

Those drops happen because by char49d at Mon, 01/30/2012 - 02:40
char49d's picture

Those drops happen because the price is artificially inflated, for whatever reason. I don't actually know whether it is bots, speculators or hoarders that cause a card like that to stay unreasonably expensive, but people had commented for a long time that a set that gets drafted shouldn't have an uncommon at that value.

It most likely has to do with the rarity of wasteland offline, which caused people to evaluate it improperly. Once there was a reason to sell, a huge number of wastelands would hit the market since there is a surplus and the price is artificially high. A similar thing happened whenever Tempest block drafts were online, because whenever people were selling instead of buying waste would drop about 20 tickets, although nothing this drastic. Just the market correcting itself.