State of the Program for July 28th 2017
Pro Tour Happening Now: The Pro Tour is happening as this goes up. It is taking place in Japan, so the live stream may be late or early, depending on where you are. Streaming on twitch.tv/magic, starting at midnight UTC.
Hasbro Quarterly Earnings Report: Hasbro has released its quarterly earnings report. Earnings for the “Franchise Brands,” which includes Magic, were up 21%. Magic was briefly mentioned – “strong” growth, and Hasbro mentioned an announcement about Digital Magic Next in early August. The announcement is
here and the PowerPoint form the presentation is
here.
Hasbro CEO Talks Streaming: Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner gave a short
interview in which he talked about streaming of Magic and D&D. One interesting tidbit – monthly viewership of Magic tournaments on Twitch and the like is over 1 million views per month. Decent.
Magic Online Judge Open: Wizards is hosting the MOJO again this year. The MOJO is a free to enter Phantom sealed event open to certified paper judges only. This is the fifth year Wizards has sponsored this “thank you judges” event. Judges can enter on one of three different weekends in August, each with a start time friendly to a different part of the world. Details
here.
Organizations Needing Help: Two organizations are in need of, and deserve, some help. First, Loading Ready Run, the creator of a lot of Magic content, is going to have to move suddenly. Moving a studio is costly, and this hit them by surprise. Check out the video
here. Secondly, SNOPES.com needs some help with server / host issues. The GoFundMe (with explanation) is
here. SNOPES is super important, especially now, and deserves your help.
Clarification on Standard Showdown: The WPN has clarified that the Standard Showdown can be scheduled on any day of the week
except Friday. I discussed this a bunch last week. I guess this means that Standard Showdown will be an additional go to event, not a means of syphoning off the competitive players from FNM. The WPN announcement is
here.
SaffronOlive on Wizards Restricting Metagame Data: I should have mentioned this last week, but SaffronOlive wrote an excellent piece about the impact of Wizards trying to limit the number of decklists and metagame info available to players. The TL:DR is that this helps pros and hurts brewers, but you should not settle for a TL:DR, read the whole
article. It is worth it. Ditto Alex Ullman’s article,
here.
This is a list of things we have been promised, or we just want to see coming back. Another good source for dates and times is the
calendar and the weekly blog, while the best source for known bugs is the bug blog which appears sporadically on MTGO.com. Most of the major upcoming events we know of are listed. Not listed, but important: Wizards offers either one or two online PTQs each weekend, with qualifiers running the three days prior to the PTQ.
Upcoming Events
|
Timing
|
No Downtime
|
None announced
|
Extended Downtime
|
Aug. 23rd, Sept. 20th, Oct. 25th
|
Sealed MOCS Monthly
|
September 15th, October 8th
|
Modern MOCS Monthly
|
August 27th
|
Standard MOCS Monthly
|
August 11th, October 21st
|
Current Leagues End
|
September 23rd
|
Ixalan release
|
September 25, 2017
|
Rivals of Ixalan
|
January 21, 2018
|
Core Set Magic 2019
|
July 20, 2018
|
Commander 2017 details here.
|
November 2017 on MTGO
|
25th Anniversary Edition Masters
|
March 16, 2018
|
Next B&R Announcement
|
August 28, 2017
|
DTK, ORI, BFZ & OGW Redemption Ends
|
November 2, 2017
|
SOI and EMN Redemption Closes
|
April 28, 2018
|
Flashback, Throwback Standard and CUBE for 2017
Wizards will be offering either a flashback draft league, a flashback Standard gauntlet, a CUBE league or prerelease / Release events each week. Here’s the schedule so far.
Flashback and Such Rotation
|
Begins
|
Ends
|
None announced – play some HOU
|
|
|
The new Flashback Leagues are still draft, and still you-keep-the-cards. They are 12 TIX / product plus 2 TIX / 120 Play Points. However, they are no longer single elimination. Now you play until you have three wins or two losses. Prizes are 150 play points for three wins and 70 Play points for 2 wins. The leagues run one week.
The Throwback Standard Gauntlet events provide a random choice of prebuilt decks from a past standard environment. These will function like the Pro Tour Gauntlets – you won’t need to own the cards. The entry fee is 10 TIX or 100 Play Points. Prizes are in Play Points: 150 for 3-0, 100 for 2-1, 40 for 1-2 and 10 play points as a bad beats award.
Opinion Section: Can You Hide Information
|
If you can’t see them, then I guess you can.
Initially, I was conflicted about this issue. I love reading decklists. I always have. When I don’t have enough time to brew or play, I can live vicariously through decklists and tournament reports. When I do have time to brew, they provide a starting point and a source of ideas. On the other hand, I know how much grief stale and solved formats can cause, so I am in favor of anything that prevents stale formats.
The problem is that I don’t see restricting the availability of decklists actually prevents that sort of problem. Formats get solved or inbred when there is clearly a best deck, or a couple decks which are simply better and more synergistic than the others.
I have been reading decklists for twenty years. I have been following a number of writers who compile decklists and breakdowns. Old timers like me probably remember Quentin Marten, one of the earliest to write a weekly column analyzing the decklists from all the PTQ Top eights in the previous week. Many other writers, including me, have analyzed Top 8 and metagame data. According to SaffronOlive, sometime Wizards has asked them to stop, other times not. Admittedly, the number crunching has gotten a lot easier since the days when I begged the TOs for the decklists at the end of an event, then read and categorized every decklists manually. Data mining nowadays is way easier. MTGO also increases the number of events that could be mined, so I understand Wizards’ concerns. However, making the data harder to get does not make it unavailable.
Years ago, I played on a serious pro team, with players that were qualified, and others that were not quite there but had a real shot of winning a PTQ anytime they played. This a decade ago, but even back then we spent time studying the metagame. We had a playtest gauntlet of the decks we expected to face at tournaments. We tracked what we believed to be the best build of each of those decks, and playtested against those builds. We also kept notes about the results, matchup by matchup, and of what sideboard cards or strategies worked.
It’s been over a decade since I have been part of a playtest team, but I don’t think teams have given up collecting data. I know many of the Madison pros keep extensive databases of games and matches played, and crunch those numbers. We also have a lot more full-time streamers, and even semi-pro players can grind infinitely more matches than we could, back when you had to physically get 8 players in one room to do a draft.
Pro players, at least those with serious teams, will have no problem getting metagame data. The people that are hurt by restricting data are the brewers and the new tournament players. These people generally build their own decks, and/or try to create their own sideboards and sideboard strategies. Knowing what you are likely to face is critical is doing passably well with that strategy. Not knowing what you may face will mean that you get destroyed by decks you don’t expect, and don’t have an answer for. So, by limiting the metagame information, the primary result will be to aid the enfranchised pros with good teams, at the expense of the new blood that may try to enter the Magic tournament scene. I’m not sure that that is what Wizards intended with this change.
(Note: SaffronOlive also made this point – I linked to his article in the news section.)
Standard: The GPs last weekend were limited, and Wizards is doing what they can to keep information on the MTGO metagame from being available to the masses. The SCG event was a team trios event, but at least one member of each team was playing Standard – and the Standard players in both teams were running Mono-Red Aggro. That might mean something.
Modern: The SCG Teams Trio included Modern as one of the three formats each team played. A quick look at modern decks fielded by the Top 8 teams shows that Grixis Death Shadow was the most played deck, but the winning deck was GW Collected Company.
Modern: The SCG Teams Trio included Legacy as one of the three formats each team played. Both the first and second place finishers played Lands. Too bad Lands is so expensive online.
Note: all my prices come from the fine folks at
MTGOTraders.com. These are retail prices, and generally the price of the lowest priced, actively traded version. (Prices for some rare promo versions are not updated when not in stock, so I skip those.) You can get these cards at
MTGOTraders.com web store, or from their bots: MTGOTradersBot(#) (they have bots 1-10), CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or sell cards to MTGOTradersBuyBot(#) (they have buybots 1-4). I have bought cards from MTGOTraders for over a decade now, and have never been overcharged or disappointed.
Standard staples: Standard prices are all over the place again this week, and cards are appearing on and disappearing from the table rapidly. All it takes is one strong finish – or just the thought that it might be good. Right, Angel of Invention? What’s more surprising; that it is here at all, or that it is almost twice the price of Archangel Avacyn?
Standard Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$8.55
|
$1.58
|
$6.97
|
441%
|
|
$4.81
|
$7.21
|
($2.40)
|
-33%
|
|
$8.66
|
$2.40
|
$6.26
|
261%
|
|
$34.28
|
$29.16
|
$5.12
|
18%
|
|
$12.94
|
$13.70
|
($0.76)
|
-6%
|
|
$5.23
|
$5.36
|
($0.13)
|
-2%
|
|
$14.96
|
$18.99
|
($4.03)
|
-21%
|
|
$16.26
|
$17.75
|
($1.49)
|
-8%
|
|
$12.52
|
$13.81
|
($1.29)
|
-9%
|
|
$3.60
|
$7.70
|
($4.10)
|
-53%
|
|
$14.47
|
$10.53
|
$3.94
|
37%
|
|
$12.96
|
$22.84
|
($9.88)
|
-43%
|
|
$40.75
|
$33.93
|
$6.82
|
20%
|
|
$10.78
|
$10.78
|
$0.00
|
0%
|
|
$7.92
|
$12.55
|
($4.63)
|
-37%
|
|
$6.78
|
$8.34
|
($1.56)
|
-19%
|
|
$6.69
|
$13.72
|
($7.03)
|
-51%
|
|
$6.66
|
$9.38
|
($2.72)
|
-29%
|
|
$5.18
|
$5.97
|
($0.79)
|
-13%
|
|
$14.79
|
$18.56
|
($3.77)
|
-20%
|
|
$23.74
|
$25.65
|
($1.91)
|
-7%
|
|
$7.89
|
$6.08
|
$1.81
|
30%
|
|
$10.07
|
$12.65
|
($2.58)
|
-20%
|
|
$8.41
|
$9.36
|
($0.95)
|
-10%
|
Modern staples: Modern prices are generally down. Not much more to say.
Modern Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$19.85
|
$20.20
|
($0.35)
|
-2%
|
|
$20.07
|
$23.12
|
($3.05)
|
-13%
|
|
$16.60
|
$15.22
|
$1.38
|
9%
|
|
$19.69
|
$21.11
|
($1.42)
|
-7%
|
|
$39.43
|
$40.54
|
($1.11)
|
-3%
|
|
$21.21
|
$20.06
|
$1.15
|
6%
|
|
$22.56
|
$23.68
|
($1.12)
|
-5%
|
|
$35.00
|
$34.24
|
$0.76
|
2%
|
|
$35.91
|
$34.26
|
$1.65
|
5%
|
|
$17.79
|
$20.34
|
($2.55)
|
-13%
|
|
$23.75
|
$24.47
|
($0.72)
|
-3%
|
|
$48.00
|
$49.68
|
($1.68)
|
-3%
|
|
$34.85
|
$42.69
|
($7.84)
|
-18%
|
|
$71.58
|
$73.05
|
($1.47)
|
-2%
|
|
$52.26
|
$55.13
|
($2.87)
|
-5%
|
|
$13.07
|
$13.17
|
($0.10)
|
-1%
|
|
$20.93
|
$22.10
|
($1.17)
|
-5%
|
|
$24.18
|
$24.04
|
$0.14
|
1%
|
|
$32.78
|
$30.72
|
$2.06
|
7%
|
|
$25.59
|
$25.42
|
$0.17
|
1%
|
|
$26.63
|
$29.35
|
($2.72)
|
-9%
|
Legacy and Vintage: Prices are pretty quiet again this week. I’m hoping the fact that Legacy will return to the Pro Tour (albeit a year from now) will help the format.
Legacy / Vintage Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$53.75
|
$48.12
|
$5.63
|
12%
|
|
$81.49
|
$78.76
|
$2.73
|
3%
|
|
$22.86
|
$24.35
|
($1.49)
|
-6%
|
|
$38.02
|
$38.13
|
($0.11)
|
0%
|
|
$38.18
|
$39.80
|
($1.62)
|
-4%
|
|
$30.87
|
$30.54
|
$0.33
|
1%
|
|
$35.87
|
$35.07
|
$0.80
|
2%
|
|
$30.72
|
$31.19
|
($0.47)
|
-2%
|
|
$37.60
|
$38.64
|
($1.04)
|
-3%
|
|
$42.34
|
$42.02
|
$0.32
|
1%
|
|
$58.52
|
$59.01
|
($0.49)
|
-1%
|
|
$146.49
|
$146.49
|
$0.00
|
0%
|
|
$42.17
|
$44.08
|
($1.91)
|
-4%
|
|
$63.27
|
$60.95
|
$2.32
|
4%
|
|
$33.42
|
$35.74
|
($2.32)
|
-6%
|
|
$20.43
|
$20.99
|
($0.56)
|
-3%
|
|
$50.03
|
$50.87
|
($0.84)
|
-2%
|
Standard Legal Sets: This table tracks the cost of a single copy of every card in each Standard legal set, plus Treasure Chests and the current booster packs. I’ll keep tracking these because they are interesting (at least to me). Hour of Devastation has fallen again, but that is also true of several sets.
Complete Set
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
Aether Revolt
|
$68.95
|
$69.90
|
($0.95)
|
-1%
|
Amonkhet
|
$66.26
|
$64.46
|
$1.80
|
3%
|
Battle for Zendikar
|
$47.33
|
$47.95
|
($0.62)
|
-1%
|
Eldritch Moon
|
$109.77
|
$116.13
|
($6.36)
|
-5%
|
Hour of Devastation
|
$57.16
|
$80.31
|
($23.15)
|
-29%
|
Kaladesh
|
$118.50
|
$114.65
|
$3.85
|
3%
|
Oath of the Gatewatch
|
$93.18
|
$108.84
|
($15.66)
|
-14%
|
Shadows over Innistrad
|
$58.94
|
$67.46
|
($8.52)
|
-13%
|
Treasure Chest
|
$2.28
|
$2.36
|
($0.08)
|
-3%
|
Amonkhet Booster
|
$1.79
|
$1.89
|
($0.10)
|
-5%
|
Hour of Devastation
|
$4.15
|
$4.19
|
($0.04)
|
-1%
|
The following is a list of all the non-promo, non-foil cards on MTGO that retail for more than $25 per card. These are the big ticket items in the world of MTGO. Exploration has passed Liliana of the Veil, but the list has shrunk again, as prices fall overall.
Name
|
Set
|
Rarity
|
Price
|
Rishadan Port*
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 146.49
|
Exploration
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 81.49
|
Liliana of the Veil
|
MM3
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 73.11
|
Liliana of the Veil
|
ISD
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 71.58
|
True-Name Nemesis
|
PZ1
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 65.27
|
True-Name Nemesis
|
C13
|
Rare
|
$ 63.27
|
Mystic Confluence
|
PZ1
|
Rare
|
$ 58.52
|
Wasteland
|
TE
|
Uncommon
|
$ 56.69
|
Wasteland
|
EXP
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 56.01
|
Wasteland
|
TPR
|
Rare
|
$ 54.12
|
Black Lotus
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 53.75
|
Mox Opal
|
MM2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 53.10
|
Mox Opal
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 53.01
|
Mox Opal
|
SOM
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 52.26
|
Wasteland
|
EMA
|
Rare
|
$ 50.03
|
Horizon Canopy
|
EXP
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 49.89
|
Force of Will
|
MED
|
Rare
|
$ 49.67
|
Mox Diamond
|
ST
|
Rare
|
$ 49.60
|
Horizon Canopy
|
FUT
|
Rare
|
$ 48.00
|
Force of Will
|
EMA
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 47.70
|
Mox Diamond
|
V10
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 46.92
|
Chalice of the Void
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 46.36
|
Mox Diamond
|
TPR
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 46.20
|
Dark Depths
|
CSP
|
Rare
|
$ 44.84
|
Misdirection
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 42.34
|
Show and Tell
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 42.17
|
Karn Liberated
|
NPH
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 41.03
|
Liliana, the Last Hope
|
EMN
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 40.75
|
Chalice of the Void
|
MMA
|
Rare
|
$ 39.49
|
Chalice of the Void
|
MRD
|
Rare
|
$ 39.43
|
Force of Will
|
MS3
|
Special
|
$ 39.12
|
Gaea's Cradle
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 38.18
|
Force of Will
|
VMA
|
Rare
|
$ 38.02
|
Leovold, Emissary of Trest
|
PZ2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 37.60
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
ST
|
Rare
|
$ 36.84
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
8ED
|
Rare
|
$ 36.28
|
Unmask
|
V16
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 36.23
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
7E
|
Rare
|
$ 36.00
|
Engineered Explosives
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 35.95
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 35.91
|
Infernal Tutor
|
DIS
|
Rare
|
$ 35.87
|
Engineered Explosives
|
MMA
|
Rare
|
$ 35.79
|
Engineered Explosives
|
5DN
|
Rare
|
$ 35.00
|
Karn Liberated
|
MM2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 34.85
|
Chandra, Torch of Defiance
|
KLD
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 34.28
|
Dark Depths
|
V16
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 34.21
|
Unmask
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 33.42
|
Scapeshift
|
MOR
|
Rare
|
$ 32.78
|
Underground Sea
|
ME2
|
Rare
|
$ 32.05
|
Scalding Tarn
|
EXP
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 31.29
|
Grim Monolith
|
UL
|
Rare
|
$ 30.87
|
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
|
ORI
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 30.72
|
Tarmogoyf
|
MMA
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 30.52
|
Underground Sea
|
ME4
|
Rare
|
$ 29.16
|
Volcanic Island
|
ME3
|
Rare
|
$ 29.00
|
Tarmogoyf
|
FUT
|
Rare
|
$ 28.97
|
Containment Priest
|
PZ1
|
Rare
|
$ 28.18
|
City of Traitors
|
EX
|
Rare
|
$ 28.05
|
City of Traitors
|
TPR
|
Rare
|
$ 27.98
|
Containment Priest
|
C14
|
Rare
|
$ 27.93
|
Volcanic Island
|
ME4
|
Rare
|
$ 27.77
|
Tarmogoyf
|
MM3
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 27.57
|
Gorilla Shaman
|
ALL
|
Common
|
$ 27.30
|
Tempt with Discovery
|
C13
|
Rare
|
$ 26.83
|
Celestial Colonnade
|
WWK
|
Rare
|
$ 26.78
|
Tarmogoyf
|
MM2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 26.63
|
Underground Sea
|
VMA
|
Rare
|
$ 26.08
|
Torrential Gearhulk
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 25.99
|
Surgical Extraction
|
MM2
|
Rare
|
$ 25.63
|
Surgical Extraction
|
NPH
|
Rare
|
$ 25.59
|
Grove of the Burnwillows
|
FUT
|
Rare
|
$ 25.09
|
* A significantly cheaper promo version of Rishadan Port is available, but I do not include promos prices on the table. MTGO has over 900 promo cards on the list, and occasionally those cards are sold out for months at a time, so their prices do not reflect the market price. I tried checking numbers in stock, but 900+ is too many.
The big number is the retail price of a playset (4 copies) of every card available on MTGO. Assuming you bought the least expensive versions available, the cost of owning a playset of every card on MTGO is approximately $ 23,570. That’s down about $300 from last week.
I did some drafts this week. I won every match in which my opponent did not cast a god against me.
I went 2-7. Five gods – ye gawds!
On the plus side, Guild Wars 2 has a new release. The end boss from the last expansion was a god, but I beat him. So I’ll play GW2 until I get over being salty about MTGO, but I’ll probably watch the Pro Tour while I do.
PRJ
“One Million Words” on MTGO
This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
HammyBot Super Sale: HammyBot was set up to sell off Erik Friborg’s collection, with all proceeds going to his wife and son. So far, HammyBot has raised over $8,000, but there are a lot of cards left in the collection. Those cards are being sold at MTGOTrader’s Buy Price.
4 Comments
I lost to Scarab God after I killed it and then exiled it. It, because MTGO is wonderful, went back to the owner's hand from the exile zone.
On the data issue--I posted a lot of my thoughts there. While I am not firmly behind Wizards on this one, I am not against them either. Your point about new players knowing what to prepare for is a bit misleading. First, new players might just have used the decklists to find the "best", buy it, and have no idea how to pilot it decently. Second, given how much writing and commentary there is out there these days, can people really not know what is the best deck? Sure, if the deck shifts to the best between Monday morning and Wednesday evening, maybe you'll miss it. But, is missing that really the end of Magic (I know you are not saying that, but Saffron Olive's post was much more gloomy than necessary, and a lot of commentators have been of the doom and gloom variety)?
The problem I had with Saffron Olive's posts, and a lot of others, is that the posts solely look at the negatives, and dismiss the positives (or potential positives). That is not a way to convince people--it is a way to rally those who already agree with you.
I'll get less "Nice Net Deck" comments when I play my own brews.
Is it weird that I STILL get that a lot? I feel like people don't even understand what they are saying half the time...
I found it strange that you are proselytizing for Snopes.com, as it is not MTG related. I find their conclusions to be biased and incorrect at times due to their biases. Perhaps you did not notice this because you share the same bias? I would definitely NOT support Snopes.com.