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By: hamtastic, Erik Friborg
Jul 09 2010 2:07am
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Editorial Section:
Now that Magic 2011 has been "fully spoiled" thanks to the fine folks at www.mtgsalvation.com, we're right in the midst of the funnest and must infuriating time to be a Magic Nut... the HYPE SEASON.  Aka "ZOMG <card> is broken!  It completely destroys <deck I like>" season.  Sometimes these fears are founded in reality, but really, a lot of the season is full of Chicken Little'ing and hyperbole... and M11 is sadly no exception.  Let's take a peek at some the offenders this time around!

Overhyped Case #1: Leyline of Sanctity-
This is a fine sideboard card, don't get me wrong; however, it is NOT going to outright kill aggressive decks.  It will make them adapt, which is actually a good thing for the game.  But it will not make them obsolete in any stretch of the imagination.  Creatures will have a higher value for a while since they can still swing in underneath this.  Also, it makes bounce more important as well, since that will completely nerf the card in any non-white deck.  In fact, any deck running an off-color leyline will be very weak to bounce effects.  Keep that in mind for how much hype you give any of them.  Dredge decks in days past would run one CMC bounce effects to punish off-color leylines and open up a big turn.  Decks can certainly do a similar thing now.  Decks can either run the X/u lands or the X/u fetchlands to fix mana into bounce, if they really, really, really need to get this thing off the table.  

Overhyped Case #2: Primeval Titan-
This card is going for upwards of $20 each in eBay pre-sales which is pretty impressive.  The obvious deck for them is U/G Turboland which loses essentially.... Rampant Growth at the rotation?  Since most of its combo pieces are Zendikar block based that makes it a much more enticing purchase.  Also, his ability is rather unprecedented.  Getting two of *any* land into play... I have to admit that he's a pretty awesome card.  I don't know if he's $20 awesome, but he's certainly going to see a lot of testing in different types of decks for the next few months.  It's possible that he will wind up being worth the hype he's getting.  I certainly can't say for sure.  However, I think that there's a bit more hype on this guy than he might deserve.  Maybe.  

(Joshua's Note: Turboland loses Time Warp as well right?)

Underhyped Case #1: Cyclops Gladiator -
Granted, this card is getting good reviews already.  However I don't think people really appreciate the powerful place this card will hold in the meta post M10 leaving.  Once Earthquake and Ball Lightning move on to greener pastures Red decks will morph from super-duper-cooper-trooper aggro to more along the lines of the old "Med Red" decks in.. .Mirrodin-era Standard.  CyGlad will be a big piece in that deck since he is repeatable "removal" for weenie creatures and walls and lets you upgrade your burn to a creature.  Meaning that you can now take down a Baneslayer with it, and a bolt.  And while that scenario is card disadvantage for the Red Deck, that's the worst case scenario which isn't really that bad at all.  I have to admit that I'm very excited to see what this guy does to the format after M10 leaves.  

Underhyped Case #2: Destructive Force -
Yes, I just listed two Red cards back to back.  I feel that people have seen the White Leyline and got it into their head that RDW can't compete.  These two cards will likely be a large part of the new world of Red decks, even if they're not the uber-fast decks of today.  For example, Wildfire was a brutal card the last time it was around, and I have to think that we'll see *something* that abuses this one.  We have enough artifact mana sources and Garruk to actually ramp up pretty fast.  The problem is that if we're ramping up to seven mana we'll probably have other things to do.  The card that made Wildfires so silly was Magnivore... and the myriad of sorcery speed land disruption effects.  Right now, there's no such amazing interaction... and one shot mana destruction is four mana... and bounce is three mana...  so maybe this one is hyped just enough.  Keep this card on your radar.  If I've learned one thing in the past few years of Magic; it's this: seven mana spells are playable if you want them to be.  All is Dust, Cruel, Volcanic, etc.  All are super expensive but all are very much playable in the format.  I can certainly see a day when this card wrecks some meta.  

Underhyped Case #3: Jinxed Idol - 
Okay people... this is your anti-control card!  Running this in Vamps means a blooghast goes across the table.  Next level bant throws a Vengevine to it.  RDW gets unearth-y.  Handing this off to the current stable of U/W/x decks is going to be hilarious.  Walls, Elspeth tokens... Gideon?  That wraps up a lot of what they use to win with (excluding Big Jace's ultimate).  Putting them on a nice clock certainly helps the match-up.  This card has so far snuck in under most people's radars being as it was recently spoiled and spoiled with a LARGE group of cards all at once.  This card hasn't been seen since Tempest, and will have a lot more interactions for the next few months than it did in its first appearance.  

The common theme I hope most have picked up on by now is that whilst each and every one of the above cards is good (or has the very real potential to be good), they are all adaptable to varying degrees.  Some will force large meta-changes. Others will only require some slight tweaks.

Discussion Items:
MTGO "Box" statistics:
With the M11 release on the horizon there's a bit of discussion about the statistics about the probability of opening a specific card or cards from 36 boosters.

Prize Splitting, Redux:
Some refresher for those who play and split for prizes and Qualifier Points on MTGO.

Card Price Discussion:
Now that the MED123 events are in the past we're seeing a bit more of a return of the Dual lands as well as other cards that fell a bit from the old sets regaining value once again.  Also, the M11 previews and impacts are pretty self evident.  Nantuko Shade gets a surge of demand but will drop back again once the influx of new copies pour into the system. 

Lion's Eye Diamond has started its decent into medium level ridiculousness instead of the full-blown ridiculousness that it once held.  And a lot of current in-demand Mythics are taking a bit of a hit too, despite there being no really large decrease in demand.  I will be interested in seeing if M11 has any impact on the supply side of that equation.

Card Price Tables:

ALA 1.328788749 4.957414 9.914827499
CON 1.75275    
ARB 1.875875    
M10 1.831665211 5.494996 10.98999127
ME3 2.44984127 7.349524 14.69904762
ZEN 2.493357755 8.145757 16.95719826
WWK 3.159041667    
TE 3.460335664 10.2817 20.5633986
ST 2.115681818    
EX 4.705681818    
mi 2.128048951 9.886221 19.7724416
vi 4.030007625    
wl 3.728164223    
MED 3.516166667 8.958001 17.91600117

Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Plateau 20 15 5 33.33%
Taiga 33 30 3 10.00%
Phyrexian Dreadnought 18.5 16 2.5 15.63%
Vindicate 35 33 2 6.06%
Pernicious Deed 28.71 26.73 1.98 7.41%
Stifle 7 5.5 1.5 27.27%
Terravore 10 8.5 1.5 17.65%
Stoneforge Mystic 4 2.75 1.25 45.45%
Nantuko Shade 5 3.75 1.25 33.33%
Garruk Wildspeaker 9.5 8.5 1 11.76%
Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Obsidian Fireheart 2 1.15 0.85 73.91%
Honor of the Pure 1.25 0.8 0.45 56.25%
Stoneforge Mystic 4 2.75 1.25 45.45%
Knight of the White Orchid 1.15 0.8 0.35 43.75%
Serrated Arrows 1.25 0.9 0.35 38.89%
Plateau 20 15 5 33.33%
Nantuko Shade 5 3.75 1.25 33.33%
Stifle 7 5.5 1.5 27.27%
Reset 0.75 0.6 0.15 25.00%
Duplicant 1 0.8 0.2 25.00%
Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Lion's Eye Diamond 55 68 -13 -19.12%
Entomb 38 48 -10 -20.83%
Vengevine 28 32.5 -4.5 -13.85%
Gideon Jura 21.5 26 -4.5 -17.31%
Time Warp 12.5 16 -3.5 -21.88%
Vampire Nocturnus 7.5 9.75 -2.25 -23.08%
Ajani Vengeant 9 11 -2 -18.18%
Argothian Enchantress 10 12 -2 -16.67%
Deranged Hermit 14 16 -2 -12.50%
Mox Diamond 26 28 -2 -7.14%
Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Bogardan Hellkite 0.8 1.3 -0.5 -38.46%
Thought Hemorrhage 1.3 2 -0.7 -35.00%
Meddling Mage 1.15 1.75 -0.6 -34.29%
Pithing Needle 1 1.5 -0.5 -33.33%
Novablast Wurm 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -33.33%
Sphinx Summoner 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -33.33%
Time Sieve 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -33.33%
Sedraxis Specter 0.9 1.3 -0.4 -30.77%
Telemin Performance 0.8 1.15 -0.35 -30.43%
Master Transmuter 2 2.75 -0.75 -27.27%

Card Price Charts:
plateau chart
taiga chart
phyrexian dreadnought chart
vindicate chart
pernicious deed chart
stifle chart
terravore chart
stoneforge mystic chart
nantuko shade chart
garruk wildspeaker chart
obsidian fireheart chart
honor of the pure chart
stoneforge mystic chart
knight of the white orchid chart
serrated arrows chart
plateau chart
nantuko shade chart
stifle chart
reset chart
duplicant chart
lion's eye diamond chart
entomb chart
vengevine chart
gideon jura chart
time warp chart
vampire nocturnus chart
ajani vengeant chart
argothian enchantress chart
deranged hermit chart
mox diamond chart
bogardan hellkite chart
thought hemorrhage chart
meddling mage chart
pithing needle chart
novablast wurm chart
sphinx summoner chart
time sieve chart
sedraxis specter chart
telemin performance chart
master transmuter chart

8 Comments

KotR by Katastrophe at Fri, 07/09/2010 - 04:22
Katastrophe's picture
5

"The card that made Wildfires so silly was Magnivore... and the myriad of sorcery speed land disruption effects. Right now, there's no such amazing interaction"

Knight of the Reliquary!

dangerlinto's picture

Which will be Legacy. Nothing like a big tournament to spur the format. The frequency and weight of Legacy DEs firing is also growing, probably in anticipation of the same thing.

Jace, The Fallen by JustinNo at Fri, 07/09/2010 - 15:36
JustinNo's picture

Jace 2.0 should be on the list for prices dropping! He is now at $77.50!
-Also I love how you noticed Jinxed Idol! I really hope it finds it's way to the battlefield! A fun card to play with indeed.
Also is there a reason why Lion's Eye dropped so much?

LED would be expected to fall by inneutral at Fri, 07/09/2010 - 17:34
inneutral's picture

LED would be expected to fall as the Mystical Tutor ban in legacy makes Ad Nauseum + Tendrils combo significantly weaker.

Primevil Titan by grapplingfarang at Fri, 07/09/2010 - 23:39
grapplingfarang's picture

I am not sure if Primevil Titan is worth all the hype that it is getting, but it is certainly a very strong card. It will give a huge boost to Eldrazi and Valakut ramp based decks.

It will do well in other by ShardFenix at Sat, 07/10/2010 - 02:38
ShardFenix's picture

It will do well in other formats as well. It will almost certainly have an effect in EDH for example.

all titans will be strong in by laughinman at Sat, 07/10/2010 - 08:31
laughinman's picture

all titans will be strong in EDH.
and the blue one looks like an interesting control finisher.

meh the blue one is the worst by ShardFenix at Sat, 07/10/2010 - 12:05
ShardFenix's picture

meh the blue one is the worst one. Even with it's "abilities" Sphinx of Jwar Isle is a better finisher. Shroud beats...Miscalculation shroud? any day of the week.