Editorial Section:
Long time readers will know that I recently found a system for tightening my play that I've been using to good effect; it's the OODA loop as described by Alexander Shearer here (http://strategy.channelfireball.com/featured-articles/in-development-observe-orient-decide-act/). The article goes over ways of keeping yourself from making silly play mistakes like missing a land drop, tapping the wrong mana for the wrong payments, forgetting "on board" tricks and so on. I'm happy to say that many of my foolish moments have been rectified by applying the details listed in that article; both on MTGO and in my Paper playing times. The very best thing about this article is that it is one of the few universal articles I've seen about the concept. There have been dozens and dozens of articles about making the right play, but sadly, they tend to get mired in format or match-up specific circumstances. Sometimes, in some formats, it's the right play to run a 2/2 creature into a 2/2 creature on turn three (namely, Onslaught block with morphs). The person on their back foot would almost never risk a block. That's a clearly distinct difference from the normal "right play" of most sealed formats.
Instead of a slew of format specific thoughts, the OODA loop article explains how to apply very general principals to your games and make better plays throughout each match. The one bone I'd pick with the article is that it makes a huge jump from mid-level player to high-level player. That's not to say that the details in the article are wrong. Far from it, they're all very, very good. However, there's almost too much for a new-to-tournament player to understand and apply right off the bat. The curve is so steep. Begin by focusing on the weakest areas of your play. And I guarantee that almost everyone reading these words right now has a 'weak area' or two. Heck, I think I have five... at least. But focus on those first. Of course, that assumes everyone is self aware enough to KNOW what their weak points are. To get us thinking about some of the more typical issues in Magic, let's answer a couple questions to see if anything jumps out at us.
1) Do you ever lose a creature to an on-board block/trick?
2) Do you ever alpha strike for 1 or two less than you expected to?
3) Do you get surprised by a block or attack that your opponent makes?
4) When playing around a card, do you stick with it?
5) Have you seen a better play seconds, or a turn, after making a mistake?
6) Have you forgotten cards in your hand that could have been used profitably?
If you answered "yes" or even "sometimes" to any of those questions, you've just narrowed down a place to start. Losing a creature, resource or tempo to something that's plainly visible is a far too common mistake, and one I recently made myself. It involved an
Aura Gnarlid with which I played in auto-pilot mode. I simply became too used to it not being blockable and ran it into a creature that could, quite obviously, block it. Nothing on the board should ever surprise me like that, and it crushed me, knowing that I made such an obvious mistake. Thankfully I don't usually punt games like that, however, even once is often enough to get my attention that I need to keep working on my OODA Loop. But let's get back to the answers regarding the above questions.
1) Do you ever lose a creature to an on-board block/trick?
If the answer is yes, then that's a very significant sign that you are probably not playing very tightly at all. There is no excuse for missing an on board situation. Magic is a great game, largely due to the hidden information aspect. You don't know your opponents hand, nor his library layout. You have to guess at some levels and you have to use learned experiences... those things you don't know should create enough challenge for you to win. Missing a trick the opponent may or may not have in hand is one thing... missing a plain as day trick on the board is quite another.
2) Do you ever alpha strike for 1 or two less than you expected to?
Similar to #1, but not quite as bad and kind of ties into the next one. If you think you can attack for lethal in an alpha block and miscount the damage that you can get through or the damage it would take to kill your opponent, that is indicative of sloppy play. Sometimes you have to make a play that you know will not kill your opponent if they block correctly; or if they have one of any number of tricks. Sometimes you're just up against the wall and have to go for whatever sliver of victory you might be able to grab or have to attempt a win via a bluff. That's a tough call to make but certainly an understandable one. That's not the same as just misreading your damage amount or their available blockers though.
3) Do you get surprised by a block or attack that your opponent makes?
As I mentioned above, this ties in with #2. Sometimes you think your opponent would have to be crazy to a make a block when you send in a better creature into battle, only to realize, too late, that they left it back because they have a trick up their sleeve. It's hard to get a read on your opponent on MTGO, but some things certainly should stick out like a sore thumb. One of which is leaving back a perfectly good attacker, and mana, while you attack into it next turn. It *could* be that they just want to scare you away from attacking, or it will more often be a telegraph that they have something worth doing to your attacker.
4) When playing around a card, do you stick with it?
This one's a bit more advanced, and I sadly can't find the article I first read about the concept. But the gist of it is this: if you start to play around <card that will beat you> do you keep playing around it until it won't? Generic examples of this concept involve playing around a removal spell in limited for two turns but then trying to play an aura that you really want to resolve? If you start to play around it the best course of action is to continue to play around it for as long as it takes to get yourself out of danger. If your opponent has the card you fear, you make them use it sub-optimally. If they don't, you're playing sub-optimally. That's the trade-off, of course. And as with every "rule" to Magic, this one has its own built in rule breaking moments. For example, if the only way you'll win is by throwing a
Snake Umbra onto an
Aura Gnarlid and swing, you have to risk your opponent having the
Heat Ray or other such removal.
5) Have you seen a better play seconds, or a turn, after making a mistake?
Again, this is loose play at it's finest (worst?), but better than the above. At least you're beginning to *see* the mistakes that you probably just ignored or didn't notice before you started watching for misplays. The solution for this is very simple; slow. down. Think things through, and use something like the OODA loop I linked before. Even though catching the mistake is good, making that mistake is still as bad as ever.
6) Have you forgotten cards in your hand that could have been used profitably?
This may seem unbelievable to some, but it happens far too often to not be mentioned. I've seen a few examples of this recently, generally with draft decks, where someone has a card in hand but forgets or doesn't realize that the card can be used. Like
Demystify while facing down an Umbra'd creature, or not removing a frustrating enchantment that's messing with attacking and blocking... in the same turn of the same game. The answer is the same as most of these issues; slow down and think about the game state, what's important and what you have to do about it. Even if there's nothing you think you can do about it, you really should double or triple check the board state and your hand to ensure you're not holding an answer.
Thankfully for MTGO, there's a lot of things that you don't have to handle to keep up good "tight play". Things like "may" abilities trigger automatically. Things like shuffling and cutting and randomizing a deck. But of course, there are things that MTGO can lull you into a missed play due to the way it works and handles so many other things. I've lost count of the number of
Hammer of Bogardan returns I missed in 8th edition leagues. Keeping your stops set correctly is perhaps the biggest loose play that is MTGO specific. Keeping you stops at a minimal level is crucial for expedient game play, however, the likelihood of missing an at-will upkeep card increases. Once you cast the card, set the stop. Even if you may not need it the next turn, or at the next opportunity, just get the stop there until you need it or for sure won't need it.
Reference Articles:
Alexander Shearer's
In Development - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act
Mike Flores'
Catachresis:
Ken Collier's
The Tao of Silent Bob: Ten Things You Are Doing Wrong
Jeff Cunningham's
Managing Mana Screw
Alexander Shearer's
In Development
There's a lot of stuff in the list of events including some old sets coming back around as well as some neat freebie gunslinging against the WotC's. Check the thread to see what's what!
New MTGO Sealed format! -
This is an interesting format that I'm not quite sure about yet. I like the lower cost to entry but I'm a bit concerned about the fact that the format has such a small deck size limit. It seems like some cards that weren't built for such a small library might be a bit too powerful. It's hard to say though without getting our hands on it!
Card price discussion:
The first table in the Card price tables is the draft/sealed EV breakdown for the week. After that, it's the typical charts of the week!
gideon jura chart
lotus cobra chart
"elspeth, knight_errant" chart
survival of the fittest chart
entomb chart
mana drain chart
"jace, the mind sculptor" chart
lion's eye diamond chart
eldrazi monument chart
vengevine chart
oracle of mul daya chart
grim tutor chart
stirring wildwood chart
celestial colonnade chart
avenger of zendikar chart
lotus cobra chart
gorilla shaman chart
mana drain chart
gideon jura chart
force of will chart
tarmogoyf chart
underground sea chart
vampire nocturnus chart
eureka chart
null rod chart
tropical island chart
bayou chart
enlightened tutor chart
demonic tutor chart
broodmate dragon chart
illusions of grandeur chart
mindbreak trap chart
pyrokinesis chart
awakening zone chart
time sieve chart
open the vaults chart
anarchy chart
juzßm djinn chart
kitchen finks chart
Card price tables:
| ALA |
1.502018 |
5.447893309 |
10.89578662 |
| CON |
1.88075 |
|
|
| ARB |
2.065125 |
|
|
| M10 |
1.763576 |
5.290726766 |
10.58145353 |
| ME3 |
2.661413 |
7.984238095 |
15.96847619 |
| ZEN |
2.418947 |
8.013311421 |
16.78309213 |
| WWK |
3.175417 |
|
|
| TE |
3.553524 |
10.77556993 |
21.55113986 |
| ST |
2.3225 |
|
|
| EX |
4.899545 |
|
|
| mi |
2.428056 |
11.79898615 |
23.5979723 |
| vi |
5.217766 |
|
|
| wl |
4.153164 |
|
|
| MED Block |
3.932 |
9.865530345 |
19.73106069 |
14 Comments
Sadly i really dont know how i feel about FoW and Jace TMS being within $8.00 of each other. It just feels dirty.
With the MED 1 sealed just 2 days away I hate to see all my investments of MED 1-3 dropping. I don't foresee that many chase rares hitting the market. Even with a max of 512 (1024 total of each pack) users I wouldn't expect to see more than 18 new FoWs, 1024 packs / 60 total rares (I think I counted that correctly). And i'm sure a lot of the prizes will end up on bots and not get cracked.
I hope to see the MED prices bounce back in the next few weeks after the market has stabilized and people have gotten over the fear of a MED market price crash. People will realize that they can buy a FoW @70-75 again and buy them all up forcing the price back to around 100, which is where I think it should back to. Its a legacy staple that EVERY player needs, I just cant see it staying that low when just recently it topped at 150. It is also a bit disturbing that a card that was just @150 is the same price (84) as Jace 2.0 when its a mythic rare from the lastest block. He certainly isn't opened as frequently as Giddeon is right now, but compared to a MED1 card that rarely gets drafted, its not the price you would expect. Yes, both cards see legacy play, yes you are likely to see FoW in any deck that runs Jace 2.0. I just cant grasp the idea that a Standard card could be worth that much (insert Supply/Demand comments here). Maybe the problem is that people cant afford to play legacy, but can afford to play standard so they deal with the one card that costs so much, rather than have an entire deck where every card cost 10-84 tickets each.
I think it is safe to say that Jace 2.0 is the most expensive card on MTGO right now, as it likely will continue to tick its way up a few tickets more while FoW hits a low around 70 after the event on Saturday. Hopefully this week not be the case come July. Now don't get me started on the playset of duals I just finished collecting 2 weeks ago.
Another great article hamtastic, i've been reading it every Friday morning for as long as I can remember. I never comment, nor had an account here for that matter. I just felt a discussion about FoW was needed. I expect to likely see some more talented (than me) writer, come with a good article looking at the prices of MED, FoW and the duals. I look forward to it every Friday Morning when I get to work, its usually the 2nd thing I do after check my email. Well done sir.
-sspecv
I will be shouted at again for sure for this, but no, I will not shut up as demanded.
I fail to see the "bad thing" of prices of staple magic card going down. Investing in some cards that can and will fluctuate with each new set, format announcement, draft or re-print is a very bad thing to do, imho. Invest in GOLD is the best thing to do, not in cardboard (ehh..pixels).
Lower prices means more players can afford the cards, and more players will play your format. Isn´t that worth more than a 150$ FoW, which you will not sell anyway?
I understand, it is all a matter of casual vs competative, but I really can not see the bad in lower card prices.. can you?
The guy wants the prices to stay high for his own, egotistic reasons.
For the rest of us, it's great.
What about the guy who bought FoW last month for $125?
Is it great for him? How is he/she likely to feel about that?
Like or not, the 2nd market price of cards are at the prices they are at b/c of supply and demand, and while everyone should be be aware of the risks of spending money and having it be devalued, that comes part in parcel with the very real possibility the value will also rise above a price you are willing to pay.
People have every right to be disappointed in the value of something going down as much as they do in seeing the value of that same thing rise.
I know I for one could care less when someone starts complaining about their "investments" when cards fluctuate. It's a game not the damn stock market. Personally I would celebrate with a 12 pack of Guinness and some mtgo friends if the market got flooded with FoW and wrecked the price of the card for everyone. Then it would be back to reasonable price for a digital object and there would be lots of weeping and gnashing of teeth. Which is always fun.
As a note: I have very little respect for people that view magic more as an investment than as a game. They are the reason we have crappy things like the reserve list in paper and cant enjoy nice reprints.
I bought my set of Vengevines when they were at the $17-$20. They went as low as $12, then went up over $30. I had a strong feeling that they are going to be staples for a long time to come and bought them when I thought the price was right. I didn't do it because I was planning on reselling them later for profit, I bought them because I didn't want to be priced out of playing green the way I'm currently priced out of playing blue because of Jace TMS, and to a lesser extent Force of Will for 100 singleton.
Was I sad when the price of Vengevines went down to $12? Yes, a little, but I wasn't planning on selling them, I just wanted them so I could play, and I don't think I deserve any sympathy because I wasn't perfect in my timing. I think some people are probably going to be upset that I was able to buy Vengevines at a cheaper price than they are able to now. That is just an unfortunate part of the secondary market.
In a way, every player that wants to play competitively in any format is forced to be a speculator to a certain extent. It's the nature of the secondary market.
The problem is when certain people start trying to corner the market on cards. That's a whole different story, and one where I think sympathy is not really warranted.
Well I was waiting to buy Vengevines till they hit 10... that never happened. then I meant to buy them when they climbed to 24... put it off for one day and they hit 34 the next day :(
I think Alex Shearer has written some excellent stuff, so building on him is a great start.
My biggest problem is that I don't have great recall of all the cards that could be in an opponent's hand. (And I probably don't take long enough to recall them.) So I'll be ready to play around removal but walk into a Veteran's Reflexes. (Actually that's not even a fair example, since that's pretty unplayed. But it's true with more obvious examples too.) So I ask "what can they do?" and then shortly after decide "nothing", so I attack. Then they show me what they could do, and I kick myself because I knew it was in the deck.
That's probably a practice thing, but in the meantime I should probably take a minute to check a list and see if I can perceive anything.
On the charts, you gotta love the rectangular curve of a low-volume card like Gorilla Shaman. I have nothing to say on that, it just amuses me. :)
About MTGO prices:
It is surprising that Jace2 is close to FoW. It's definitely because Standard is more popular, whatever the reason. I think it's more often practice for paper, not the "price tolerance" of individual players, but the reason why Standard is more popular doesn't matter. All the really matters is that both chase cards are defined by sets that are rarely opened, and sets with fewer chase cards in them.
So how about the chase rares of yester-year? Meddling Mage? I think that went $40, $45, $45, $60, $80, $78, $80 ... holding steady at $80 ... then $18 $8 $5 $3 before you could say "Tendrils." Who here paid more than $25 for a Pernicious Deed? Or more than a $1 for a Reya Dawnbringer? Let's bring up the chart for Oath of Druids. My point is, no card is invincible, and these cards make horrible investments. Even the Goyf drops into twenties on occasion.
I dont know if cards from Invasion are really the best thing to do comparisons with. The majority of the issue people have with Jace is that no other standard card has ever been this expensive, and no standard decks have hit this price point either.
Yeah, that's true. I was going to bring up Vampiric Tutor and Oath of Druids, but those were always Classic cards. And now that I think about it, it's not just Jace2:
Jace2 - $87
Elspeth - $49.50
Gideon - $37.50
Vengevine - $37.50
BSA - $37.50
Lotus Cobra - $24
Maelstrom Pulse - $17.50
Eldrazi Monmument - $16.50
Time Warp - $13
Abyssal Persecutor - $11
So Standard right now has "one Force of Will", "one Underground Sea", "three Tarmogoyfs", and a couple other cards which will still pay for your draft despite being out of the top 5. That *is* pretty sick.
Hey Hammy, I wanted to make a suggestion:
I know there's usually a little contention on how to report prices when a new set comes out. We're about to get Urza's Legacy, so here's my request/suggestion on how to handle it:
June 18: UL will be in the system, but pretend it isn't. There will be no volume, all prices are meaningless placeholders, and of course there's no basis for comparison. So pretend it doesn't exist.
June 25: The first time you should report on UL. I like what you did with Rize by showing "top movers" charts that exclude the latest set. But instead of doing a "new set top movers" chart, which doesn't mean anything in the first week of availability, just do a list of "10 most expensive UL cards", or "3 most expensive UL cards of each rarity." Since June 25 will be the first real data point, that's the best way to present useful and accurate information.
Just my $0.02. Thanks for all the work.
Pure Top lists for each new set sounds awesome idea.