State of the Program for June 1st 2018
Pro Tour Happening Now: Pro Tour Dominaria has begun. Check out the coverage over on Twitch.tv/Magic.
Battle of the Planes Returning: Wizards is bringing back the Battle of the Planes. This is a phantom sealed format with 6 packs from the sets associated with certain Plains. For example, the Ravnica offering includes packs from original Ravnica and Return to Ravnica. Details
here.
Lee Sharpe Moving to MTGArena: Lee Sharpe, former judge, stats guru, and the person who brought Commander to MTGO, is moving from the MTGO team to the MTG Arena team. He will be focusing on “the parts of the game outside actual gameplay.” He will be working on player rewards and similar benefits.
Brawl Has Returned: Brawl is back – with its banned list in place and Baral gone from the format. Wizards hosted a streamer showdown yesterday (as you read this, and tomorrow as I write it.) I would have given more warning, but this was announced Tuesday.
RIX and XLN Redemption Returning: Wizards has reordered redemption packs for both sets. Redemption will reappear “soon.”
Major Pauper Events: Pauper has arrived. Both SCG and Channel Fireball are offering major Pauper paper events. SCG is hosting a Classic event, and CF is offering a Pauper challenge at GP Vegas The Professor, who has championed paper Pauper, get to gloat a bit. His video is
here.
This is a list of things we have been promised, or we just want to see coming back. Another good source for dates and times is the
calendar and the weekly blog, while the best source for known bugs is the bug blog which appears sporadically on MTGO.com. Not listed, but important: Wizards offers either one or two online PTQs each weekend, with qualifiers running the three days prior to the PTQ.
Upcoming Events
|
Dates
|
Scheduled Downtimes
|
June 27th (both extended)
|
Constructed Leagues End
|
July 3, 2018
|
Sealed Leagues End
|
July 6, 2018
|
Core Set Magic 2019
|
July 13, 2018
|
Guilds of Ravnica
|
October 5, 2018
|
Ravnica Allegiance
|
January 2019
|
Next B&R Announcement
|
July 2, 2018
|
Ixalan Block Redemption
|
Out of stock – will return “soon”
|
Dominaria Redemption Ends
|
October 10, 2018
|
WotC Covered Events
Wizards will be streaming a number of events next year, including all four Pro Tours, the Magic Championship and World Magic Cup, along with 35 Grand Prix. Since Wizards does not schedule premier events on prerelease weekends and certain holidays, that means they will be streaming an event nearly every weekend. Here’s the schedule we have so far.
· June 1–3: Pro Tour Dominaria in Richmond, Virginia
· June 9–10: Grand Prix Copenhagen
· June 15–17: Grand Prix Las Vegas (double-GP weekend)
· June 23–24: Grand Prix Pittsburgh
· July 7–8: Grand Prix São Paulo
· July 21–22: Grand Prix Sacramento
· July 28–29: Grand Prix Minneapolis
· Aug. 3–5: Pro Tour 25th Anniversary in Minneapolis, Minnesota
· Aug. 11–12: Grand Prix Brussels
· Aug. 18–19: Grand Prix Los Angeles
· Aug. 25–26: Grand Prix Prague
· Aug. 31–Sept. 2: Grand Prix Richmond (double-GP weekend)
· Sept. 8–9: Grand Prix Detroit
· Sept. 15–16: Grand Prix Stockholm
· Weekend of Sept. 23–24: 2018 Magic World Championship and Team Series Championship in Las Vegas, Nevada (exact event dates TBD)
· Oct. 6–7: Grand Prix Montreal
· Oct. 13–14: Grand Prix Denver
· Oct. 27–28: Grand Prix Lille
· Nov. 3–4: Grand Prix Atlanta
· Nov. 9–11: Pro Tour "Spaghetti" in Atlanta
· Nov. 17–18: Grand Prix Milwaukee
· Dec. 8–9: Grand Prix Liverpool
· Dec. 14–16: World Magic Cup in Barcelona, Spain
2018 Magic Online Championship Series and other events
Complete details, including schedule, rules, and which online events qualify you for which online or paper events is
here. In addition, Wizards will be offering these special formats:
· May 30-June 6: Champions of Kamigawa, Champs, Betrayers of Kamigawa
· June 6-13: Battle of the Planes (details
here)
· June 13-July 6: Vintage Cube
Magic Online Format Challenges
These are high stakes events that happen every weekend. They cost 25 Tix / 250 play points, and last a number of rounds based on participation (assume 5-8), plus a single elimination Top 8. Details, including prize payouts, are
here. Start times are:
Event Type
|
Start Time
|
|
Saturday, 8:00 am PT
|
|
Saturday, 10:00 am PT
|
|
Saturday, 12:00 pm PT
|
|
Sunday, 8:00 am PT
|
|
Sunday, 10:00 am PT
|
|
Sunday, noon PT
|
Opinion Section: The Problem with Winning
|
MTG Arena is moving along. Wizards announced that, in early June, quick drafts will be available 24x7, best of three matches will appear, and Wizards will release the rest of the Standard legal sets. Wizards will also update the matchmaking system to better integrate players’ ranks, and possibly some information on their collection size. I think this last announcement – that matchmaking is being refined – may be the most important announcement of all.
MTG Arena is not a trading card game. You have to either purchase or earn most of the good cards in your decks. That means, generally, grinding away. For the free-to-play folks, grinding matches is the only way that players can earn more cards. In other games, like MMOs, players can often play against the environment or similar low threat opposition. Most MMOs have a low-powered area, where new players can fight relatively easy opponents to win enough rewards to get more powerful. The low level areas provide players a path to getting tough enough for higher level areas. Playing against the environment, in low level areas, means playing against an opponent that is designed to lose nearly all of their battles. After all, players are supposed to win pretty much all of their low level battles, so MMOs are designed accordingly.
Magic does not (yet) have any sort of play-against-an-AI option. The game is complex enough that developing a playable AI may never be feasible – or affordable. Without an AI opponent, Magic Arena opponents will be forced to play against real opponents. That means that, in every match, regardless of level, one player is going to lose. And losing sucks.
A significant portion of the Magic player base loves winning, to the point that they will suffer a dozen loses to get that one win – and that win outweighs the loses. However, a lot more players don’t get that level of endorphins from winning. For most people, the downside of a loss is comparable to upside of a win – or maybe a win feels just a bit better. Those players will keep playing so long as they win often enough to have a net positive reaction to the game.
If not – if the game proves a net negative – those players will find something better to do with their time.
This is where the matchmaking comes in. MTG Arena is driven by playing against other players. That’s how you win gold and gems and get new cards. For new players, and those whose incomes mean they have to be free-to-play or close to F2P, are going to be playing matches. If they are facing experienced players with Tier One decks, they are going to get smashed over and over again. Worse yet, if they keep facing netdecks that are full of rares and Mythics, those matches are going to feel unfair. Not only will the those players feel they cannot win, they will feel that the other players have an unfair advantage. Losing is bad. Feeling like the game is rigged against you is worse.
If the matchmaking algorithm is good enough that the newer players and F2P base can will a reasonable percentage of their matches, they will keep playing. If not, MTG Arena is doomed.
Time will tell.
Standard: Two weekends ago, the Standard MOCS Top 8 featured a nice mix of decks, including RB Aggro, Mono Green, Mono Red, GB Constrictor, and UB Midrange. Last weekend’s event had a different mix – you can see the decklists
here. The winning deck was UW Control. The most interesting deck, however, was this cycling deck built around New Perspectives and Shadow of the Grave. (The name comes from an Urza’s Legacy card that was banned almost immediately after it was previewed. Like many other Urza’s Block cards,
Fluctuator was busted.)
Brawl: No post-bannings decklists yet.
Pauper: This week’s Pauper Challenge was less blue than in recent weeks.
Modern: Last weekend we had a Modern MOCS. One of my favorite archetypes won. I played a Tron deck in my first sanctioned Standard match, decades ago. That was a Karn-based Tron deck, but the Karn was Karn, Silver Golem. That deck won by using Karn, Silver Golem to animate Urza’s Blueprints and bash with it. Modern Tron decks have a better path to victory.
Legacy: We had a couple Legacy events last weekend – side events at GPs and a SCG Classic.
Note: all my prices come from the fine folks at
MTGOTraders.com. These are retail prices, and generally the price of the lowest priced, actively traded version. (Prices for some rare promo versions are not updated when not in stock, so I skip those.) You can get these cards at
MTGOTraders.com web store, or from their bots: MTGOTradersBot(#) (they have bots 1-10), CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or sell cards to MTGOTradersBuyBot(#) (they have buybots 1-4). I have bought cards from MTGOTraders for over a decade now, and have never been overcharged or disappointed.
Standard Staples: Standard prices are mixed again this week. This feels more normal.
Standard Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$5.11
|
$4.64
|
$0.47
|
10%
|
|
$8.93
|
$11.18
|
($2.25)
|
-20%
|
|
$18.51
|
$21.33
|
($2.82)
|
-13%
|
|
$4.66
|
$6.01
|
($1.35)
|
-22%
|
|
$11.37
|
$13.07
|
($1.70)
|
-13%
|
|
$11.08
|
$9.00
|
$2.08
|
23%
|
|
$19.38
|
$22.07
|
($2.69)
|
-12%
|
|
$12.86
|
$11.25
|
$1.61
|
14%
|
|
$29.49
|
$34.88
|
($5.39)
|
-15%
|
|
$7.71
|
$7.79
|
($0.08)
|
-1%
|
|
$31.08
|
$29.08
|
$2.00
|
7%
|
|
$7.57
|
$7.15
|
$0.42
|
6%
|
|
$5.81
|
$6.40
|
($0.59)
|
-9%
|
|
$29.70
|
$30.36
|
($0.66)
|
-2%
|
|
$16.67
|
$16.40
|
$0.27
|
2%
|
|
$8.10
|
$8.62
|
($0.52)
|
-6%
|
|
$9.91
|
$10.22
|
($0.31)
|
-3%
|
|
$26.28
|
$27.29
|
($1.01)
|
-4%
|
Modern staples: Modern prices were mixed this week. Overall, the trend seems positive.
Modern Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$16.16
|
$15.59
|
$0.57
|
4%
|
|
$25.85
|
$28.66
|
($2.81)
|
-10%
|
|
$25.91
|
$24.82
|
$1.09
|
4%
|
|
$19.28
|
$20.39
|
($1.11)
|
-5%
|
|
$29.58
|
$19.74
|
$9.84
|
50%
|
|
$38.59
|
$34.70
|
$3.89
|
11%
|
|
$29.17
|
$28.21
|
$0.96
|
3%
|
|
$17.16
|
$17.05
|
$0.11
|
1%
|
|
$48.76
|
$48.43
|
$0.33
|
1%
|
|
$27.33
|
$30.64
|
($3.31)
|
-11%
|
|
$29.70
|
$28.27
|
$1.43
|
5%
|
|
$25.11
|
$18.66
|
$6.45
|
35%
|
|
$50.81
|
$49.95
|
$0.86
|
2%
|
|
$35.32
|
$32.63
|
$2.69
|
8%
|
|
$51.33
|
$56.29
|
($4.96)
|
-9%
|
|
$24.86
|
$23.75
|
$1.11
|
5%
|
|
$23.53
|
$23.35
|
$0.18
|
1%
|
|
$24.97
|
$22.37
|
$2.60
|
12%
|
|
$21.57
|
$21.55
|
$0.02
|
0%
|
Legacy and Vintage: Legacy and Vintage followed a very slow downward slide. True-Name Nemesis fell, possibly because the paper version fell as well. The paper version is down because it is being reprinted in Battlebond.
Legacy / Vintage Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$30.59
|
$33.82
|
($3.23)
|
-10%
|
|
$27.80
|
$28.15
|
($0.35)
|
-1%
|
|
$18.85
|
$20.55
|
($1.70)
|
-8%
|
|
$9.42
|
$10.97
|
($1.55)
|
-14%
|
|
$31.32
|
$30.97
|
$0.35
|
1%
|
|
$29.59
|
$32.11
|
($2.52)
|
-8%
|
|
$14.72
|
$17.90
|
($3.18)
|
-18%
|
|
$33.78
|
$34.90
|
($1.12)
|
-3%
|
|
$26.38
|
$27.30
|
($0.92)
|
-3%
|
|
$57.11
|
$67.24
|
($10.13)
|
-15%
|
|
$25.92
|
$24.85
|
$1.07
|
4%
|
|
$10.57
|
$11.67
|
($1.10)
|
-9%
|
|
$20.88
|
$22.40
|
($1.52)
|
-7%
|
Standard Legal Sets: This table tracks the cost of a single copy of every card in each Standard legal set, plus Treasure Chests and the current booster pack. I’ll keep tracking these because they are interesting (at least to me).
Complete Set
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
Aether Revolt
|
$109.30
|
$112.64
|
($3.34)
|
-3%
|
Amonkhet
|
$82.41
|
$79.96
|
$2.45
|
3%
|
Dominaria
|
$115.47
|
$119.67
|
($4.20)
|
-4%
|
Ixalan
|
$87.73
|
$93.65
|
($5.92)
|
-6%
|
Hour of Devastation
|
$48.48
|
$47.49
|
$0.99
|
2%
|
Kaladesh
|
$73.58
|
$78.22
|
($4.64)
|
-6%
|
Rivals of Ixalan
|
$91.76
|
$92.06
|
($0.30)
|
0%
|
Treasure Chest
|
$2.25
|
$2.23
|
$0.02
|
1%
|
Dominaria Booster
|
$3.30
|
$3.41
|
($0.11)
|
-3%
|
The following is a list of all the non-promo, non-foil cards on MTGO that retail for more than $25 per card. These are the big ticket items in the world of MTGO. The list is ten cards longer this week.
Name
|
Set
|
Rarity
|
Price
|
Black Lotus
|
1E
|
Rare
|
$ 76.73
|
True-Name Nemesis
|
PZ1
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 64.20
|
True-Name Nemesis
|
C13
|
Rare
|
$ 57.11
|
Mox Opal
|
MM2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 55.31
|
Mox Opal
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 53.84
|
Mox Opal
|
SOM
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 51.33
|
Liliana of the Veil
|
ISD
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 50.88
|
Liliana of the Veil
|
MM3
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 50.81
|
Horizon Canopy
|
IMA
|
Rare
|
$ 49.67
|
Horizon Canopy
|
FUT
|
Rare
|
$ 48.77
|
Horizon Canopy
|
EXP
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 48.76
|
Mox Diamond
|
TPR
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 41.13
|
Force of Will
|
MED
|
Rare
|
$ 40.75
|
Mox Sapphire
|
1E
|
Rare
|
$ 39.85
|
Engineered Explosives
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 39.60
|
Engineered Explosives
|
MMA
|
Rare
|
$ 38.67
|
Engineered Explosives
|
5DN
|
Rare
|
$ 38.59
|
Dark Depths
|
V16
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 37.19
|
Unmask
|
V16
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 36.20
|
Ancestral Recall
|
1E
|
Rare
|
$ 35.96
|
Wasteland
|
TE
|
Uncommon
|
$ 35.35
|
Liliana, the Last Hope
|
EMN
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 35.32
|
Mox Emerald
|
1E
|
Rare
|
$ 33.98
|
Misdirection
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 33.78
|
Mox Ruby
|
1E
|
Rare
|
$ 33.64
|
Force of Will
|
MS3
|
Special
|
$ 32.28
|
Exploration
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 31.32
|
Rekindling Phoenix
|
RIX
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 31.08
|
Mox Jet
|
1E
|
Rare
|
$ 30.85
|
Black Lotus
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 30.59
|
Wasteland
|
TPR
|
Rare
|
$ 30.58
|
Underground Sea
|
ME4
|
Rare
|
$ 30.56
|
Force of Will
|
EMA
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 30.23
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
ST
|
Rare
|
$ 29.86
|
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
|
WWK
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.86
|
Karn Liberated
|
NPH
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.84
|
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
|
DAR
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.70
|
Karn Liberated
|
MM2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.70
|
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
|
EMA
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.63
|
Underground Sea
|
ME2
|
Rare
|
$ 29.60
|
Force of Will
|
VMA
|
Rare
|
$ 29.59
|
Collective Brutality
|
EMN
|
Rare
|
$ 29.58
|
City of Traitors
|
EX
|
Rare
|
$ 29.56
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 29.52
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
A25
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.49
|
Karn, Scion of Urza
|
DAR
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.49
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
7E
|
Rare
|
$ 29.28
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
8ED
|
Rare
|
$ 29.17
|
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
|
A25
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.11
|
Cavern of Souls
|
MM3
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 28.02
|
City of Traitors
|
TPR
|
Rare
|
$ 27.80
|
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
|
VMA
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 27.33
|
Scalding Tarn
|
MM3
|
Rare
|
$ 27.17
|
Scalding Tarn
|
ZEN
|
Rare
|
$ 26.82
|
Mox Diamond
|
ST
|
Rare
|
$ 26.73
|
Show and Tell
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 26.38
|
Walking Ballista
|
AER
|
Rare
|
$ 26.28
|
Unmask
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 25.92
|
Celestial Colonnade
|
WWK
|
Rare
|
$ 25.91
|
Cavern of Souls
|
AVR
|
Rare
|
$ 25.85
|
Gorilla Shaman
|
ALL
|
Common
|
$ 25.62
|
Kolaghan's Command
|
DTK
|
Rare
|
$ 25.11
|
Surgical Extraction
|
MM2
|
Rare
|
$ 25.06
|
Noble Hierarch
|
CON
|
Rare
|
$ 25.05
|
The big number is the retail price of a playset (4 copies) of every card available on MTGO. Assuming you bought the least expensive versions available, the cost of owning a playset of every card on MTGO is approximately $ 18,190. That’s down about $85 from last week.
The Wisconsin Public TV Auction is this week. My
furniture is up soon, and I am again working every single shift, plus a lot of timeout outside of scheduled shifts. Plus work – so no Magic this week.
PRJ
“One Million Words” on MTGO
This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.