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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Mar 16 2012 8:36am
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Hammie’s The State of the Program for March 16th

This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
 

News and Discussion Items:

CUBE!: Cube drafting is coming to MTGO. To start, however, we will just get to draft with the cube Wizards has designed. On the plus side, they spent some time and effort refining and playtesting the list. Drafting will begin in early April. 
 
The way cube draft works is that you draft packs made up out of a select subset of cards chosen by the cube designer. This is typically several hundred cards, one of each, with the same numbers of cards of each color. The cards are chosen to create a balanced draft format – but that does not mean that the cards are boring. Quite the converse – a cube can contain many of the best cards ever printed. The Wizards cube includes a number of cards that have been banned in various formats. 
 
The Cube drafts will be phantom drafts, meaning that you will not get to keep the cards, but you will not have to own them to play with them, either.
 
Details and Card List here.
 
Weekly Blog: Not much news from the blog this week, but the list included a ton of bug fixes. The MTGO crew have been busy! In other news, Wizards will hold an Onslaught sealed event Sunday, and Mercadian Masques will leave the draft queues with the April 4, 2012 downtime.  I still have a playset or two – I’ll have to find some drafts before they are gone.
 
MOCS changes:  I am hearing this secondhand, so take this section with a grain of salt. (An aside – why does Wizards have to make announcements via Twitter and so forth exclusively?  I don’t mind seeing Twitter announcements – it’s why I follow the various Wizards people and accounts. That said, why not also provide an article or something we can see once the tweets are done?   If Wizards has announced this more formally, I missed it.) 
 
Whatever – back to the MOCS changes. According to what I have heard, the MOCS championships have changed. You can no longer opt out, and just collect your promo card and packs. Apparently, you have to play. This change meant that a lot more players chose to play last time around – too many, as it happened. Wizards caps these events, and the number of players exceeded the cap. Players were locked out. This is not optimal, and Wizards needs to rethink this. Until they do, however, if you plan on playing in the MOCS, I would recommend that you join the event as soon as it appears in the list of upcoming events. 
 
Playing Other People’s Accounts:  The MOCS raised another issue recently. A blog, here, noted that a couple of players were, apparently, playing in the MOCS season championship at the same time they were playing in a Grand Prix or the SCG Open. Without laptops, it would appear. It’s possible that they were playing with almost invisible wearable computers, but another explanation is that someone else was playing their accounts.
 
This is a bad thing. 
 
Every so often, I hear people claiming that you cannot cheat on MTGO. Sure you can. This is how it’s done. If I play in a MOCS or PTQ, I will be playing all 10 rounds, and I will be fatigued after seven rounds. My opponents, who are having friends play their accounts one and off, will have got some rest. How is this not an advantage for them?
 
Maybe you can argue that, but the simple fact is that this is against the code of conduct. 
 
I can’t say for certain, but I would expect Wizards is looking into this, and that these players may regret their actions. ‘nuff said.
 

Editorial Section: Speculating, Part II

A number of people responded to my editorial on speculation and trading. The article is here – comments at the bottom of that page. Try to ignore the tone of some of the comments – especially the swearing - and look at the actual recommendations.
 
Wait – I want to comment on the tone of the comments a bit more. I have been participating in debates – both written and oral – for many, many years, and when a lot of money is riding on the outcome. I have never read or heard anyone swearing or ranting in a serious discussion, unless they had already lost. It simply isn’t useful – if anyone has to drop to that level, it becomes clear to everyone involved that they have no argument left.   Old legal saying: If the law is on your side, pound the law. If the facts are on your side, pound the facts. If neither, pound the table. Swearing is pounding the table. 
 
Alright – back to the discussion. In the comments, people outlined three ways which, they claimed, anyone could make money trading. Here are a few examples:
 
Lagrange wrote:
 
Trading: Exploit price differences between different chains. Mtgotraders.com basically sets the market benchmark price and other chains follow. But plenty of chains have websites with prices – both buy and sell prices. It is not too difficult to make a few tix by matching up a low sell price from one bot to a high sell price from another bot. A good example is to keep an eye on the hotlist on mtgotraders.com. It is almost always possible to tix by buying up these cards from other bonds (sic)  and sell then to mtgotraders.com. This is a low risk, low gain strategy. But you can make perhaps 5-10 tix in an hour. Standard card prices are usually very competitive across bots, but cards from other formats fluctuate or drift in price.
 
I tried this for a while. A few comments: first of all, this is not as easy as it sounds. The BOT owners are also looking for these opportunities, and the gaps close fairly quickly.   Second, the difference is often in fractions of TIX, so you wind up with a lot of fractional TIX on a bunch of different BOTS, which constitutes a significant buy in. With time, effort and practice, and provided you are dealing in expensive cards, I could see someone making $5 an hour. However, I cannot just doing this. People can make more money flipping burgers at minimum, and I have far more valuable uses for my time. If you love doing this, more power to you, but the return is not financially worthwhile unless you have no alternatives at all.
 
Larange also suggested:
Investing: Instead of predicting prices and invest accordingly, the causal player with some tixs can also make money by investing. You can often find a high priced card that has drifted to a low price over time. For example a card like a foil Orim’s Chant. Buy it at 60% of the mtgotraders.com price and wait for a bot to buy it back for a price of perhaps 80% of the mtgotraders.com price. This strategy is a little more risky but still possible.
 
I want to test this. 
 
MBeasley, once you get beyond his conspiracy fantasies, had a similar recommendation:
Buy non-basic lands. Um anyone see the prices of non-basic lands from SOM? This happens all the time. Oh ISD lands suck because there are so many. Ok, Then buy ISD lands. They will be worth a lot after SOM cycles out. That happens all the time with non-basic lands.
 
MBeasley also recommended making money by being “smarter” and “outsmarting people,” and by knowing the metagame and history.   Cool idea, but the simple fact is that a lot of people are also trying to do the same thing, and many of them have spent a lot of time studying the market and card trends. Being smarter and more knowledgeable than all of them is not easy.
 
But let’s put this to the test. I want to make TIX by investing in cards. Assume I have 300 TIX to invest. (I don’t, but I’ll pretend I have.) I will “buy” the recommended cards, and sell them when they go up, then buy more. I’ll track the movement over time. I’ll buy and sell cards every Monday, using MTGOTraders.com as benchmark prices. (Note: I do not have time to shop a dozen BOTs for best prices, and I don’t want to get into the debate about who has the best prices. More importantly, I’m testing the idea that I can make TIX buying cards and having their price rise. I’m not testing whether I can arbitrage. That would be another experiment.)
 
 Let’s see how well we can do.
 
Here’s my first draft of my trading principles. Please let me know if I should change anything. For example,
 
1) Whenever price goes X% over the purchase price, I cash in and reinvest. What X should I use? 10%? 20%?
 
2)   I buy cards as recommended by the users. When I have TIX, I buy whatever was most recently recommended, unless someone else argues against it.
 
3) I hold onto cards until I can sell them at a profit. (Or should I bail when cards drop X% - and if so, what is X?)
 
I am also looking to make money. In that respect, I will compare the price to a standard, real world investment, like a Spider (the investment instrument that mirrors the S&P 500 index, not a tarantula.) I will look at the profits month by month. True, that might be too short term an investment, but I am writing an article series, not doing a scholarly study. That means my investments should be aimed to mature in months, not years. 
 
The commenters recommended a number of cards, including Foil Orim’s Chants, ISD lands, Shocklands, Primeval Titan, Zendikar full art basics, etc.
 
So, what should I buy?   Comments, please.   If anyone really can trade for a profit, and it as easy as you all say, tell me what to buy.
 

Tournaments:

Thursday Night Magic Online (TNMO) for the upcoming week (March 29th):   M12 Sealed. I don’t know if that is four or six pack sealed. Doesn’t matter - the TNMO card for March is an alternative art Tectonic Edge.  That’s what makes it worth playing.   
 
Wizards is holding an Onslaught Block sealed event on Sunday, March 18 at 10:00 AM PST (18:00 UTC).  If you have never played Onslaught, give it a try. Save the packs you win – we should get some Onslaught NIX TIX queues shortly.
 
Let’s look at the Constructed Tournaments breakdown for the week of March 7th        through March 13th.   142 constructed events fired this week. Modern, Standard, Innistrad Block constructed and Pauper are as popular as always, and Legacy fired twice. The other formats were deathly quiet, again. 
 
Format
Fired
Format
Fired
Standard
47
Classic
0
Pauper
33
Legacy
2
Innistrad Block Const.
27
 
 
Modern
33
All others
0
 
FYI: I got the number fired from the list of results, here.  
 

Cutting Edge Tech:

Standard:   As always, SCG held a Standard Open last weekend.  The format is diverse, but I didn’t notice anything that new. Well, almost nothing – check this out.
 
Junkwalkers
David Palmer, SCG Standard Open, Dallas
Creatures
0 cards

Other Spells
1 Karn Liberated
3 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
3 Garruk Relentless
3 Liliana of the Veil
3 Gideon Jura
2 Elspeth Tirel
4 Tragic Slip
4 Lingering Souls
4 Day of Judgment
1 Beast Within
1 Dismember
3 Tezzeret's Gambit
2 Oblivion Ring
1 Go for the Throat
24 cards
Lands
4 Woodland Cemetery
4 Isolated Chapel
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Evolving Wilds
1 Forest
4 Plains
4 Swamp
25 cards

Karn Liberated

 

 

 
Modern: Modern play continues, with a ton of events including online PTQs and paper events. The week’s online Modern PTQ featured a number of Birthing Pod / Chord of Calling decks making Top 8, plus a URW Delver deck I picked up and played in some events. It did okay in my hands – the losses were pilot error, mainly in incorrect mulligans after sideboarding.   Here’s that deck.
 

Pauper: This week, a lot of different decks made strong showings. I didn’t see anything new or different.   I would have brought some info from the Pauper TNMO events, but I will have to be working, then traveling all Thursday, so I can get to GP Nashville in time to work the grinders. Maybe next week.

 
Legacy and Classic: GP Indy was a Legacy events, and Tom Martell took it down with an archetype familiar to every format: UW Delver. Tom’s deck added black for Lingering Souls and some discard spells.   Here’s the deck. 
 

Card Prices:  

Notes: All my prices come from MTGOTraders.com. For cards that are available in multiple sets, I am quoting the most recent set’s price. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Primeval Titan is from M12. If I list a card as out of stock, don’t assume you can’t buy it.  MTGOTraders stocks their Bots first, so the MTGOTradersBot1, MTGOTradersBot2, MTGOTradersBot3, or MTGOTradersBot4 often have the cards in stock even when the online store is out. Now, on to prices.
 
Standard prices are generally rising. Some of this is again due to the changes in standard, and some in older formats. Sword of War and Peace is still rising. It is now the
 
Standard & Block Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 23.31
Y
$ 25.75
- $ 2.44
$ 22.65
Y
$ 24.08
- $ 1.43
$ 19.26
Y
$ 21.75
- $ 2.49
 $ 24.83
Y
 $ 23.30
+ $ 0.47
 $ 27.27
Y
 $ 22.51
+ $ 4.76
$ 17.68
Y
$ 17.63
+ $ 0.05
$ 14.73
Y
$ 14.12
+ $ 0.61
(Huntmaster of the Fells)
$ 17.88
Y
$ 17.43
+ $ 0.45
$ 22.38
Y
$ 21.44
+ $ 0.94
$ 17.42
Y
$ 16.51
+ $ 0.91
$ 9.79
Y
$ 7.45
+ $ 2.34
$ 11.35
Y
$ 10.98
+ $ 0.37
$ 13.45
Y
$ 12.76
+ $ 0.69
$ 21.73
Y
$ 16.55
+ $ 5.18
$ 5.46
Y
$ 5.58
- $ 0.12
$ 20.72
Y
$ 19.94
+ $ 0.78
$ 32.66
Y
$ 27.00
+ $ 5.66
$ 46.81
Y
$ 45.28
+ $ 1.53
$ 10.07
Y
$ 10.07
---
$ 9.36
Y
$ 10.83
- $ 1.47
$ 11.42
Y
$ 13.75
- $ 2.33
$ 23.61
Y
$ 18.22
+ $ 5.41
$ 16.74
Y
$ 16.28
+ $ 0.46
$ 6.55
Y
$ 6.36
+ $ 0.0.19
Modern prices are fluctuating again this week, but the overall trend is down. 
 
Modern Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 13.32
Y
$ 12.66
- $ 0.32
$ 5.92
Y
$ 5.46
- $ 0.32
$ 22.23
Y
$ 20.04
+ $ 2.19
$ 38.48
Y
$ 37.55
+ $ 0.93
(Scalding Tarn)
$ 5.00
Y
$ 5.32
- $ 0.32
$ 8.33
Y
$ 10.35
- $ 2.02
$ 8.13
Y
$ 6.99
- $ 0.36
$ 20.42
Y
$ 19.85
+ $ 0.57
$ 69.80
Y
$ 70.39
- $ 0.59
$ 16.26
Y
$ 16.60
- $ 0.34
$ 11.51
Y
$ 13.95
- $ 2.45
$ 16.66
Y
$ 17.83
- $ 1.17
$ 23.00
Y
$ 23.26
- $ 0.26
$ 12.78
Y
$ 10.23
+ $ 2.55
$ 14.18
Y
$ 16.68
- $ 2.70
Legacy / Classic prices are shifting around a bit, but we don’t have a trend here. Scavenging Ooze is headed back up into the “just by the commander deck” range again.
 
Legacy / Classic Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 102.10
Y
$ 102.10
---
$ 28.75
Y
$ 27.21
+ $ 1.54
$ 32.46
Y
$ 32.74
- $ 0.28
$ 30.49
Y
$ 28.27
+ $ 2.22
$ 64.94
Y
$ 64.94
---
$ 24.92
Y
$ 25.61
- $ 0.69
$ 32.67
Y
$ 26.88
+ $ 5.79
$ 19.30
Y
$ 19.55
- $ 0.25
$ 9.96
Y
$ 9.96
---
$ 32.57
Y
$ 33.42
- $ 0.95
$ 39.68
Y
$ 39.68
---
$ 18.64
Y
$ 17.03
+ $ 1.61
$ 100.28
Y
$ 100.28
---
$ 6.64
Y
$ 6.95
- $ 0.31
$ 8.68
Y
$ 9.20
- $ 0.52
$ 5.94
Y
$ 5.94
---
$ 11.80
Y
$ 12.16
- $ 0.36
$ 18.60
Y
$ 18.60
---
$ 9.90
Y
$ 10.58
- $ 0.68
$ 5.38
Y
$ 5.38
---
$ 39.97
Y
$ 37.73
+ $ 2.24
$ 40.22
Y
$ 40.22
---
$ 22.30
Y
$ 22.30
---
$ 21.33
Y
$ 19.91
+ $ 1.42
$ 18.66
Y
$ 19.56
- $ 0.90
(RishadanPort)
$ 29.55
Y
$ 26.85
+ $ 2.70
$ 9.32
Y
$ 8.67
+ $ 0.65
Pauper is a really popular format, and the format is interesting (if you like control vs. storm, which some people do.) Prices were up, down and round and round. A lot of cards corrected for last week, giving back the gains and recouping the loses.
 
Pauper Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 2.95
Y
$ 2.95
---
$ 1.36
Y
$ 1.04
+ $ 0.32
$ 1.31
Y
$ 1.25
+ $ 0.06
$ 4.37
Y
$ 4.54
- $ 0.17
$ 3.30
Y
$ 2.98
+ $ 0.32
$ 0.57
Y
$ 0.48
+ $ 0.09
$ 2.74
Y
$ 2.62
+ $ 0.12
$ 6.06
Y
$ 6.13
- $ 0.07
$ 0.78
Y
$ 0.81
- $ 0.03
$ 2.59
Y
$ 2.54
+ $ 0.05
$ 0.65
Y
$ 0.70
- $ 0.05
$ 4.71
Y
$ 4.42
+ $ 0.29
$ 2.22
Y
$ 2.50
- $ 0.28
(Accumulated Knowledge)
$ 2.34
Y
$ 2.03
+ $ 0.31
$ 5.83
Y
$ 6.13
- $ 0.30
$ 1.37
Y
$ 1.47
- $ 0.10
$ 2.19
Y
$ 2.45
- $ 0.26
$ 1.14
Y
$ 0.94
+ $ 0.20
$ 3.33
Y
$ 3.33
---
$ 3.15
Y
$ 2.96
+ $ 0.19
$ 3.48
Y
$ 3.05
+ $ 0.43
$ 1.03
Y
$ 1.09
- $ 0.06
$ 0.83
Y
$ 0.94
- $ 0.11
$ 2.51
Y
$ 2.00
+ $ 0.51
$ 0.81
Y
$ 0.95
- $ 0.14

The Good Stuff:

Per suggestion, instead of the top ten, I’m going to all list the non-foil, non-premium cards on MTGO that cost more than $25 each. That’s over $100 per playset. (okay, a playset of Vampiric Tutors is one in any sanctioned format, but I don’t care.) Another interesting note: Heath kindly shares the official MTGOTraders.com price list with me. That list includes over 100 products worth $25 each, but many of them are precons, Duel Decks and specials. The list also includes 6 promo cards. Cutting those out leaves this week’s list of MTGO gold:
 
Most Expensive Cards
Price
Rarity
Set
Force of Will
$ 102.10
Rare
MED
Lion's Eye Diamond
$ 100.28
Rare
Mirage
Tarmogoyf
$    69.80
Rare
FUT
Vindicate
$    64.94
Rare
AP
Sword of War and Peace
$    47.76
Mythic
NPH
Null Rod
$    40.22
Rare
WL
Vampiric Tutor
$    39.97
Rare
VI
Pernicious Deed
$    39.68
Rare
AP
Hallowed Fountain
$    38.48
Rare
DIS
Scavenging Ooze
$    32.67
Rare
CMD
Sword of Feast and Famine
$   32.66
Mythic
MBS
Entomb
$    32.57
Rare
OD
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
$    32.46
Mythic
WWK
Wasteland
$    30.49
Uncommon
TE
UndergroundSea
$    28.75
Rare
ME2
UndergroundSea
$    28.72
Rare
ME4
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
$    27.27
Mythic
DKA
RishadanPort
$    27.04
Rare
MM
And the big number: $7,583.73
 
That is what it would cost to buy one copy of every non-foil card on MTGO, at retail, from MTGOtraders.com as of last Wednesday.   This does exclude non-promo basic lands, but I did not remove duplicates. The big number includes the prices of half a dozen different Jace Berelens, for example. Any cards with a lot of reprints – like Naturalize or Mana Leak – will show up quite often. Even so – that is quite a number.
 

Weekly Highlights:

I was getting caught up from my GP Seattle trip, and getting ready for GP Nashville. Not much time for MTGO, unfortunately.
  
PRJ
 
“one million words” on MTGO, when and if I can get there. 

 

24 Comments

Blog Entry by chrism315 at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 10:36
chrism315's picture

I wrote that blog entry. Both Andrejs and sMann were banned for 30 days. There's still occasional conversations about this on twitter and you can follow updates by following me, @dieplstks. Thanks for linking, :)

-Chris Mascioli

yay by smack8001 at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 10:53
smack8001's picture

Yay, SOTP, it's the one reason I look forward to getting to my work computer every Friday...

I'm not an authority on card by Kumagoro42 at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 11:33
Kumagoro42's picture
5

I'm not an authority on card speculation, but I somehow like to follow the trends, even just out of "scientific" curiosity (I'm always amazed at the micro-economy of MTGO). I'd say the current best mid-term investment cards are the Modern staples (once upon a time, they were the Extended ones), because Modern season is a huge influence on the prices. Like, when Modern season is on, you see the staples go up to 3x or 4x their prices. Look at Hallowed Fountain. It's nearly 40 tix. That's insane, that price is clearly inflated. You don't have to outsmart anynone to speculate on that, it's just a case where the players that want to build competitive decks for Modern tournaments are forced to spend that money. After the Modern season ends, you can bet everyone will sell their Hallowed Fountains to take their money back, and the prices will go down to probably 10 or so. At that point, you just buy them. No need to be greedy, just buy a playset or two (I actually just wish to do that for the sake of playing them in PREs; if I happen to make a profit out of that, fine, but I essentially just try to avoid losing money due to the inflated prices). Of cource, we're already late to experiment on that, since you will sell them when the price will go up again next season, and that's a lot of months from now. But there's that.

Since some time ago, I used to speculate in Lagrange's way. Just not by comparing prices all over the system. There was this ONE chain to which I would sell my rare cards (my own rare cards, from my own collection), and this ONE other chain I would buy them back, generating a profit in the process. I'll not write the names of the chains of course, but some people would probably know what I'm talking about: the former chain was selected because it was the highest payer in the system (that's not true anymore, unfortunately, or at least, it doesn't buy enough cards anymore); the latter because its prices fluctuate a lot, and there's a simple way to check them online outside the client. It was a painful process as I had to put all my rares on trade (only rares, that's important: no mythics. And no lands. Not enough differential with them. It was also required a collection large enough for the bots to always find something interesting), then the buying chain would make an offer for 75 of them chosen apparently at random, and I would have to exit, compare those buying prices with the selling prices of the other chain, and see if and where there was a margin. In a couple of hours, I could make maybe 2 tix worth of profit (and the remaining credits would be left in the same two chains anyway, so no dispersion there. I would actually not recommend to work with more than 2 bot chains in any case).

The satisfaction to be found in a similar system is entirely depending on your own goals. I was (as I am) trying to just buy some cards to play in a non-competitive way without spending real-world money, and 2 tix more every once and then (when I could put enough time and willpower in it, basically) was nothing to sneeze at. But I don't play competitive standard, so I don't really need a lot. And I got a good starting collection when I sold all my paper cards to MTGOTraders 3 years ago, and now I'm perfectly happy with what I earn with my articles every week. For someone else, that would be nothing.

Plus I get some occasional profit I don't even plan, but which just happens to me by following the market. Like, I had a playset of Natural Order since day 1. I like to have them in my collection. But at some point last year, they were being BOUGHT for 56 tix each. So I sold them, if sadly. With that boost, I bought dozens of great cards. Then recently, I slowly bought the NOs back using my article earnings, at 25 tix each. In the end, I made 124 tix out of nowhere. It just happened. (I also usually happen to buy the latest mythic creatures before they get huge, like Consecrated Sphinx and Elesh for 2-3 tix each). (But I rarely sell them afterwards, since I play with them a lot).

I think speculating is about by KaraZorEl at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 11:37
KaraZorEl's picture

I think speculating is about projecting what metagames will look like based on card spoilers. A lot of token decks will like Elesh Norn. If there's a really strong equipment (something like Batterskull for 3 mana), it's probably a safe bet that Stoneforge Mystic will go up. People have a preference for new cards; this has nothing to do with the standard format. It's just human nature to like new things.

I also feel that there's a significant problem in online play as opposed to paper play: that of trading. When I speak with someone in person, I can make a fair deal. I even trade down if I want to. The few times I've been approached to trade online, it's usually been avaricious people who are apparently not aware that I have the price guide for every card every released online at my fingertips. This is not to say that trading is not viable online: merely that people don't seem willing to invest in the future by giving even value for something they believe will go up over time.

I don't really understand by Kumagoro42 at Thu, 03/22/2012 - 11:29
Kumagoro42's picture

I don't really understand your last sentence. People ARE willing to invest in the future. But that has nothing to do with the poor appeal of trading with humans (which is something I didn't even consider, and all in all should be avoided if not with your closest friends - at best, it's a waste of time, like you said; at worst, it's very dangerous). Even with its small scale, this is a proper market. Trying and trading with random humans rather than bots (and I mean with that the professional or at least semi-professional retailers) is like trying and buying your new computer from a guy standing at the corner of the street rather than at an electronic store.

I know that MTG was born with the idea of "exchanging cards with friends", like sport trade cards from when we were 8-year old, but that's entirely in the past now, the game and the secondary market outgrew that completely.

A few things: by jtsalinger at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 11:55
jtsalinger's picture

A few things:

-The MOCS thing is real. Unfortunately.
-Why isn't Pyroblast in your Pauper price information? Given the amount of blue floating around (established, even) in the metagame, I think it's a more relevant card than Hydroblast. It's also worth .30 more at the moment.
-Martell's list is UW Stoneforge, not UW Delver. ;)

Also, holy crap at SoWaP's price. I understand why, but still!

Regarding the lack of an opt by Calavera at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:03
Calavera's picture

Regarding the lack of an opt out for Mocs:

The announcement for season 3 did say that if you qualify but do not register for the event you will only get the promo card (and by inference no opt out packs) as well as stating that any sealed champs would be phantom so you would not be losing out on free cards by not playing...

But I find it Unfathomable that they did not realize that more than 1024 people would qualify and being that there was
No incentive to opt out more than that number would want to play.

But back to your point about twitter announcements they did only announce that anyone who did not get to lay should contact customer service only via twitter which just seems wrong. All kinds of wrong. They need a communications manager who makes sure all important tweets get posted somewhere public.

I think the last example should have been both on th boards and in game.

It should not have been on by this isnt the n... at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:46
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It should not have been on twitter. Twitter is used by a very very small percentage of the population, and is not the place the majority of players are going to look for information. For wotc to put relevant information on twitter and not anywhere else is completely ridiculous. In other words, just what i would expect from them.

Speculating by oraymw at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:53
oraymw's picture
5

I agree 100% with Pete's analysis on trading.

With that said, I have found some cases where I've been able to make some tix on trading. Usually, it involves predicting a metagame several months ahead, and then buying something that is very underpriced, and then selling at exactly the right time. This means that it requires vast amounts of luck to hit a jackpot.

Example; for 3 days after NPH release events, Birthing Pods were at about .25 tix. I bought twenty. I sold them all at 10 tix. I did this because I looked at Birthing Pod, and just had a feeling that it was going to be a staple in the upcoming format. Since NPH was a third set, it was drafted for a very short time, so I knew the price would go up. But I suspected that it would go up to about 2 or 3 tix. I should have sold them sooner... but I forgot I had them. So I got really lucky and sold them when they were really high. It could have been just as likely that they didn't go so high.

Even with one anecdotal experience like that, I'm not going to risk my money trading on MTGO, because you can't reliably get results like that. Again, it requires getting very lucky.

For those saying you just have to be smarter, don't believe them. I'm willing to put money on being significantly smarter than the people saying this, but I'm not willing to bet that I'm smart enough to predict the MTGO market well enough for it to be worth my time.

Contact Customer Service by h_b_k_02 at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:48
h_b_k_02's picture

Meh, I did and nothing came of it other then the generic email.

On Speculating by schizoidman at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 15:51
schizoidman's picture

I have to respectfully disagree with Pete and oraymw about speculating. While not easy, it's not exactly difficult to make money on MTGO. How much money, of course, depends on how much time and effort you are willing to put into it. If you are working a good job at a decent salary, sure, it's probably not worth your time. However, if you are looking for a hobby that might make you some money on the side, or you're unemployed, or you're a student and have some free time, then I say go for it!

I recently invested $1000 in MTGO and have made $400 in profit. Of course, since 1 tix = 0.94 or so then it's less than that. But still, anyone who follows the MTGO metagame and reads articles on the major MTG websites is just as capable of seeing those same returns as I am.

It does not require extreme amounts of luck in order to make some money trading on MTGO. Todd Anderson wrote an article about this little deck of his revolving around cheap blue creatures. It totally changed the metagame. He updated that deck with Geist of Saint Traft. I bought 10 when they were at 10 and sold them at 16. If you had followed that trend and picked up Sword of War and Peace at 22 when they first started making waves on MTGO they're going for 42 now.

He wrote another article about Splinter Twin. I bought 18 copies of Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker at 5.5 and sold them at 12.5, making 126 dollars. Buying 18 copies is 5 trades, at 1 minute a trade, that's 5 minutes of my time. I put out an ad when they hit 14 on mtgotraders for 12.5 and sold the majority of them while I was watching TV and drafting. Say I sold each one individually, that's 18 trades for 18 minutes. So, in less than 30 minutes I made 126 dollars at a rate of 250 dollars an hour. If that's how much McDonalds is paying now-a-days, sign me up.

I saw that all the Channelfireball guys were on Wolf Run on Friday while at work. When I got home I bought Primeval Titan at 16 and sold it at 20. Raphael Levy wrote an article about Frites and how they did really well as a team, yet no one cracked top 8 so it was not a very well known deck. I bought Elesh Norn at 16 and sold it at 28.

I've also had some misses, so as not to cherry pick. I bought 10 copies of Skaab Ruinator, 10 of Past in Flames, 3 Venser, the Sojourner, 50 Skirsdag High Priest, and 20 Cemetery Reapers. Ruinator and Past in Flames have not seen any movement, so I'll probably end losing a ticket on each one. The Venser I sold at a loss of 1.4 for each. The 50 Skirsdag I bought for 5 tix and now they're like 0.06 each. Cemetery Reapers went up a little bit, but not enough to make a profit. And those are my loses on the year. All in all, I'm probably down 30 tickets, out of a profit of 400.

O, Did I mention it was fun?

Well written post. I feel the by greyes3 at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 16:50
greyes3's picture

Well written post. I feel the exact same way in regards to speculating.

Cards suggestions for what by GainsBanding at Sat, 03/17/2012 - 00:22
GainsBanding's picture

Cards suggestions for what you should include in your experiment: The Onslaught fetch lands since there are OLS drafts this week. Sometimes those week-long drafts make the money rares go down (although not always, check prices before buying in). Rishadan Port is only going to go up once Masques is off sale in a few weeks (well, maybe - is it being played, or is it just expensive because it's scarce?). Tarmogoyf is a constant swinger between 50 and 80 - buy low sell high. Dark Ascension mythics and tournament rares will go up over the next year since it is a small set that isn't being drafted with Avacyn Restored. This happened with Worldwake / Rise in 2010.

The trick to trading is when by MBeasley at Sat, 03/17/2012 - 03:40
MBeasley's picture

The trick to trading is when people know about the cards, it's already too late.

The real trick is to watch the lands, or to just READ THE CARDS!

When MBS was around, Thrun was $4. That was because apparently people didn't like a 4/4 creature with hexproof and regeneration. Not to mention you could put a sword on it.

When NPH was first released, I was able to get Spellskite's for $4 a piece. You know how I knew what to buy? I read what Spellskite did. And everyone I spoke to said this card would be a STD staple for a while. So I bought them up for 4 and sold them between 10-12 a piece.

Now on the opposite of that, doing research is important. Has anyone read about Avacyn Restored? Well they are getting rid of Werewolves and.... NO FLASHBACK.

So what does that mean to the average player? Despite the number of them in the system (I figured on average about 600 opened per hour on a slow day) SNAPCASTER MAGE is a card that people might need to own for that set. If they release some new good counterspells, or good spells in general, Snapcaster will be the only way to get them into play.

**There are two sides to this though.

There is buying cards and selling them, but there is also buying cards you want to use.

Buying a card cheaper than it was at it's peak is the same as making tickets on selling a card you got for cheap.

- Gideon is relatively cheap, and goes into a lot of decks. He had a high, but I got them at 8, and that is a great card. I will play it, and I think it's better than both Garruks especially with all the creature based decks going around.

** Well make it 3 sides.

Look at the decks currently being played, and then look at all the possible decks available to you. Then ask yourself... "hm... This deck isn't being played at all, I could get the cards cheap and catch people off-guard.".

I was at a paper Grand Prix Trial at my store that had approx. 50 or so people playing in it. There was Esper Spirits, Delver, "Super Friends", Mono-White, Zombies, U/B Control, RG Aggro, Ramp Run, and Black Ramp.

Who do you think was the #1 seed in the top 8 after 5 rounds? The one person in the room playing RDW. He scraped the field.

So you can look at what is not being played, and buy the cards and wait till it comes back "into fashion". It's a simple approach, but an effective one.

- And never forget a few simple tricks.

1) The time cards are the cheapest are during pre-releases. The cards not being released online are the ones people are selling to play in the events. I bought Sword of W&P for $30 online from MTGOtraders.

2) Today's Block Constructed is tomorrows standard. It is very cheap to play the RW ISD block deck. Well SOM is going to cycle out. Why not get the cards before the old ones cycle out?

3) Research online. It is general consensus that Titans are not being re-printed in M13. That means that the titans you do have are a price today, but in MTGO, unlike the stock market, it's "Sell the Rumor, Stay away from the News.". If the general idea people are getting from WotC is that there will be no titans, if you aren't using them, sell them before that announcement is made and they drop like a rock.

4) The best time to buy brand new cards are when they first come out. (Not included, the obvios cards). When NPH was released, I was able to get Surgical Extractions for 2 for 1 tix. Why did I buy it? I was already playing Memoricide, but this card costs essentially 0 mana and removes everything from a Titan to Inkmoth Nexus, all of them, from the game. Or, the most annoying, if you wanted to mana leak me, I hope you have a FOW because you won't have any more Leak's for the rest of the game.

5) Foils are the best investment you can make. But not just any foil. Only Staple Foils (Snappy, Foiled Non-Basic Lands), foiled lands (ZEN or Unhinged), or things like that. Things that can either stand the test of time, or are very good and will get more play regardless of format. I think Snapcaster fits that bill. MTGO players love foils, and will be willing to pay premiums for them. Well Snapcaster foils are 9-ish on MTGOtraders. It's not impossible that the cards will be worth something in a year or 2 depending on it's use with Avacyn Restored.

6) Sell SOM lands you aren't using. Nobody will use SOM lands when the set cycles out. They have probably reached their peak and if you have your playset, sell them in parts since there are much better options in Modern, Legacy, Vintage, Momir Basic, Classic, EDH, Pauper... Etc..

*****All investments carry risk including loss of initial investment. Understand the risks before investing.

As far as I can tell, short by char49d at Sat, 03/17/2012 - 03:50
char49d's picture

As far as I can tell, short term speculation is just dumb luck. Playability of cards is in a constant state of flux, and while you may make the right decisions in buy Elesh Norn for 3 and sell her at 28, there are plenty of mythics that have gone down in value.

Most pros have a huge competitive edge there since they are aware of decks before they break (since they are necessarily building the next pro-tour winning deck).

There are relatively surefire ways of making money. One of them was mentioned in the article, buying lands and preferably those that produce blue. I have no idea what the most played dual land from Innistrad will be, but I do know that in a year when it is no longer drafted a few of them will be in extremely high demand much like Darkslick Shores and Seachrome Coast, and you will at worst break even on the rest.

The other way to make money is to understand the driving force of the MTGO economy, which is the current PTQ format. It was not hard to figure out what the best cards in the format would eventually be, since Loam, Gifts, Shackles, Engineered Explosives, Goyf, Vendilion Clique, Thoughtseize and a host of other cards were all extended staples and show up in legacy or vintage.

All of those cards I named were well known entities and I bought them early, held them and then sold them. I had no useful insight into the format when I did it, I just bought the cards that had done it before. I didn't hit on everything, Academy Ruins, for example, was a flop and Urborg didn't move at all.

All I did was realize people would need cards to play Modern in the PTQ season, and that would drive all prices up. I chose not to buy lands because they were already heavily speculated upon given their 1000% increase once Modern was announced. I ended up netting about 400 tickets, for virtually no risk. If I had sold them all at their peak or taken the time to sell them individually instead of to Bots, I would have likely done even better.

Being smarter then the next guy is a myth. Knowing what cards will get printed and where the metagame will shift is a fools errand. Understanding most players are draft-to-draft, PTQ season to PTQ season and monetizing that is the best you can do outside of creating a bot chain.

The correct by grapplingfarang at Sat, 03/17/2012 - 06:59
grapplingfarang's picture

Chard49d is completely correct. I know in the last one I talked about how shocklands were a good thing for profit. Right now is not the time to do that. You buy during the summer when people are thinking about formats and sell during PTQ season. This works for MOCS formats to. If a deck is popular in the MOCS format that month, the cards should rise in value. Looking at schedules is more important than knowing how the metagame will shake up.

This is actually great by oraymw at Sat, 03/17/2012 - 16:38
oraymw's picture

This is actually great advice. Everyone saying "just outsmart everyone else" is either just deluding themselves, our lying so that more people will play the speculating game.

The best general principles are to buy after the spring expansion, and sell in the fall because the format is changing so much. But even that is nothing like an ideal strategy, especially since we don't know how the new Player's Championship schedule is going to change things.

If you want to speculate on some cards over the short term, then do it for fun, but don't think you're going to make a profit out of it, unless you get very lucky.

I am not saying just to by MBeasley at Sun, 03/18/2012 - 18:19
MBeasley's picture
5

I am not saying just to "outsmart" everyone else. But there are simple things that people overlook, like Thrun.

And I never did say short-term speculation. The best part about MTGO is that you can hold onto cards and play them and the price won't be affected by condition.

Zendikar lands are the easiest thing, but more speculative things are more fun.

I did make a killing on MBS, see Thrun and Hero above.

But the reason speculating is so damn easy, and it really is, is because of net-decking and outsmarting people. And it's very easy to outsmart people. Research is a big part of that.

I did research on the next set, Avacyn, and learned some interesting things you have to take into account. It's a 244 card set, 10 more than SOM. Now I know the entire block has to have exactly 666 cards, but it's a stand-alone set. That means that DKA is the best investment you can make since it will be insanely underdrafted and you can pick here and there specific cards that you know will be good, or speculate will be good.

The other thing is to use Channel Fireball against what it is doing.

I have been a fan of Vorapede since this set was released. Channel Fireball has it on it's "Sell" list. That means I can get them in Paper for really cheap, and online I have had them at 4 a piece.

I think that since Titan's wont be in M13, Vorapede is going to be a green staple for as long as it's STD. I mean a 5/4 with undying, and WotC wanting to lower the power of creatures (see any recent interview by Wizards R&D) it will be the Fenway Green Monster. I mean if you want to use 2 removal spells on my creature, that's fine by me. Waste 2 spells instead of 1. It gives me a huge advantage. And if it dies while it's O-Ring'ed, then it comes back as a 5/4 with the ability to attack and come back as a 6/5.

I am already playing Vorapede in my Ramp deck, and it makes quick work of Thrun. You want to kill it, cool. If it has a sword of F&F on it, just try to deal with it. And against control, just try to get rid of it with a Black Sun.

But just the fact that DKA will be the set with the least amount of cards in the system when SOm cycles out and Avacyn is released. In theory.

The other things about out-smarting people is net-decking with people who aren't aware of price changes. People will gladly buy a Titan for 19 or 20 or whatever the price is at the moment, but when ZEN cycled out, I bought my Primeval TItans for $7 a piece. I mean I didn't know Ramp Run would exist, but I know a 6 mana 6/6 with trample that gets lands out of your deck cannot be a bad card, and green is my favorite color.

I must admit though, I have a friend who is opening a store and has a pro-team playing at the PTQ, one of which won one already, so they have like a minimum of 8 of everything in foils, foreign languages, etc.. So we can work with every card available and try out stuff. Like during FNM I played with my friends RG aggro and he played with a deck we built on the spot, which was superfriends minus Gideon. And through playtesting, we found out just how good Increasing Devotion can be.

He was in a mirror match and was using it as a 1-of, and late in his final match he was at a stand still, flashed back IA and got a Karn, won the game. It's things like that that can help you.

I also track prices, since I am going to work for said store and I'm the price tracker for their soon to be made bot's and paper cards, while also using it for myself for watching modo prices.

It takes work, but you can make money on cards, all while using them.

*But here is 2 questions.

Why is Liliana at a semi-standstill? I think it's one of the best cards in the game, and has applications in many.. many.. decks, but it has hovered around 23 for a long time.

And Why has Sorin gone up so much? It has skyrocketed in the last few days. I mean a 5 day $6 move?

And finally, research is important. Obviously the ISD block cards will have to go up since the next PTQ is ISD Block. So look at the ISD block cards that you need and get them before they go up like Shocklands have in the past few days.

Your post is exactly what I'm by char49d at Mon, 03/19/2012 - 06:17
char49d's picture

Your post is exactly what I'm talking about when I said short term speculation is dumb luck (no offense intended). You managed to make a profit on Thrun and Hero of Bladehold, which is fine, but Tezzeret, Hero of Oxid Ridge and Consecrated Sphynx all tanked.

There was no way to predict that based on the cards themselves, it had to do with the way the metagame evolved and what cards were printed in the following sets, information that was unavailable at the time you would have speculated on them.

Koth and Elspeth have both been over 20 and under 10 at different times. You think Vorapede and Increasing Devotion are going to be worth more? I disagree, Vorapede is a 5 drop that doesn't have an ETB effect and is weak to counters and white removal, and is also easily outclassed. I think Hellrider will be worth more in a few months, and its a mere rare. Who's right? Who knows! It's two people guessing and hoping to get lucky.

You yourself don't understand the current price jumps or stagnation of Sorin and Liliana. There is an upcoming banning of Intangible Virtue in ISD Block Constructed. Obviously Ray of Revelation is going to see less play, but beyond that predicting what happens on Garruk, Liliana, and Sorin is next to impossible, and block is a lot more simple than standard.

Wizards knows what is coming out in future sets and STILL can't figure out what the most played cards will be. Speculating is fine as a "game within a game" and anyone and everyone that wants to should do it, but don't believe you have an edge because you can identify the "good" cards. The best magic minds and the creators and maintainers of the game fail to do this again and again and again.

Nice by apaulogy at Mon, 03/19/2012 - 13:14
apaulogy's picture

Agree 100%.

"Being smarter than everyone" assumes that everyone else is dumber than you are.

As much as I like the sound of that, it is just not true. I think your musings on speculation are spot on.

Good show!

You are about the 5th person in the past few days that I have seen say that they are banning Intangible Virtue in block. Can you show me a reference? I have googled it and came up with nothing.

@apaulogy by revengeanceful at Mon, 03/19/2012 - 14:36
revengeanceful's picture

@apaulogy - It's just a rumor that Intangible Virtue will be banned in block, based on the fact that the preview image for the announcement is that of Intangible Virtue. There's a big thread about it on MTG Salvation.

thanks by apaulogy at Mon, 03/19/2012 - 18:44
apaulogy's picture

I saw it finally...I have also read some stuff on Twitter.

IDK, it seems like a possibility but it also seems a little preemptive...

Intangible Virtue and by GainsBanding at Tue, 03/20/2012 - 01:07
GainsBanding's picture

Intangible Virtue and Lingering Souls are banned in block.

http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/feature/187a

Re by Lagrange at Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:12
Lagrange's picture
5

Re: Trading
I agree with all your comments. Matching up BOTS and identifying arbitrage-like opportunities will require a lot of time and you will end up with credits on a range of different BOTS. This strategy can be beaten by any daytime job. But I think a daytime job would beat any money-making strategy on MTGO. The only positive thing with this strategy compared to the others is that it has very low risk. Once you have identified a high buy price from one BOT and a low selling price from another BOT, the only risk involved is essentially that the buying BOT is not willing to trade at the advertised price.

Re: Investing
The investing strategy I suggested is significantly different from that of MBreasley. If I had the skills to predict the “market”, I would of cause use them to make tix, but I don’t really pay any attention to the frontier of good and upcoming decks. I like the idea of you testing the strategies by tracking the prices on MTGOtraders.com. But I would never buy a foil Orim’s Chant from MTGOtraders.com as an investment, only for playing with it (consumption). What I meant was that you should buy it from a different BOT chain where the price had drifted to a lower price - well below the current MTGOtraders.com-price. If I could buy a foil Orim’s Chant for 47 tix with the current benchmark price being $70, then I would. But as you also state in the description of your experiment this kind of strategy is not the one you are testing. I guess that in order to test my strategy I would have to name an exact BOT and tell exactly which cards to buy from this BOT. And then you would have to actually buy the cards and wait for the price to trend back upwards to the MTGOtraders.com-price. If you do not buy then the price will not reverse. Hence, I can see why you probably do not want to test it. Like the other strategy I suggested this one also requires a lot of time - at least initially. It can take some effort to identify the right cards. In the end I don’t think it would beat flipping burgers. I use it because I have a lot of tix just sitting in my account and then I might as well put them in illiquid cards.

PS: Sorry about the (sic) bonds you quoted :-)