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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Mar 23 2012 8:45am
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Hammie’s The State of the Program for March 23rd

This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
 

News and Discussion Items:

Ban Hammer: The quarterly update to the B&R list is out. The short answer is – nothing much happened. That is true, unless you play either Innistrad block constructed or 10 card singleton. Lingering Souls and Intangible Virtue are both banned in block. Stoneforge Mystic is banned in 100 card singleton, but Regrowth is unbanned. 
 
Weekly Blog: Not much news from the blog this week. As expected, Wizards will be offering NIX TIX Onslaught drafts. The next downtime will begin early (3am PDT) and be a long one. Other than that, not much, except for a new list of player reward cards. Some nice ones this time. Finally, remember that Mercadian Masques will leave the draft queues with the April 4, 2012 downtime. 
 
Playing Other People’s Accounts:  As I mentioned last week, a blog, here, noted that a couple of players were, apparently, playing in the MOCS season championship at the same time they were playing in a Grand Prix or the SCG Open. Those players accounts were locked, and the players banned for a month. 
 
Don’t have the same thing happen to you – don’t let anyone else play on your account, at least not in tournaments.
 
Editorial Section: Speculating, Part III
As I said last week, I want to test the idea that anyone can make money speculating on MTGO – that it is, in the words of several commenters – “easy.” To do that, I will invest 300 TIX and see what we can do.
 
I asked for comments on my trading principles. No one bit. For now, I’m using these rules.  
1)     Whenever price jumps significantly, I cash out and reinvest. 
2)     When I have TIX, I buy whatever was most recently recommended, unless someone else argues against it.
3)     I hold onto cards until I can sell them at a profit. 
 
A lot of commenters talked about the winners they purchased in the past. Nice anecdotes, but I have no time machine, so I can’t buy those. The following commenters did recommend buys now:
 
Gainsbanding: Onslaught fetchlands, Rishadan Port, Tarmagoyf (on the swing), Dark Ascension mythics and tournament rares.
 
MBeasley: Snapcaster Mage, Vorapede (others questioned this), ISD block staples.
 
In previous weeks, other commenters recommended a number of cards, including Foil Orim’s Chants, ISD lands, Shocklands, Primeval Titan, Zendikar full art basics, etc. 
 
First off, I don’t want to buy anything for Modern now. We are in the Modern PTQ season, and demand for the cards are at their maximum. This is not the time to buy. It is certainly not the time to buy shocklands. I expect Wizards to find some way to get more shocklands into the system in the next couple years, if they want Modern to succeed. They could be in M13. I know new players hate them, but one year of reprints would help Modern a ton, and Wizards could balance out a year of bad lands if they put a bunch of Timmy candy in the set. Just my opinion – and a justification for not buying Hallowed Fountains at these prices. 
 
I’ll take Gainsbanding’s advice, and MBeasley’s on Snapcasters and one Vorapede. (I doubt this one, but it’s cheap.)
 
Time to pull the trigger. Here’s the initial crop of cards:
·        1 Goyf
·        8 assorted Onslaught fetchlands
·        2 each of the low priced Dark Ascension mythics, like Vorapede and Havengul Lich
·        A handful of DKA rares that are 1) really cheap and 2) have some chance in block. (for example, Sudden Disappearance costs $0.08, and deals with token decks.
·        Past in Flames is a combo enabler, which would work in Standard if Wizards prints some parts in the next couple sets. Long term gamble.
·        2 Sun Titans: Primeval are on a couple week high, while Suns were cheap, and UW control may make a comeback. They don’t rotate until October.
·        6 each of the Innistrad duals, except Isolated Chapel – which should drop hard after the Lingering Souls ban.
·        Finishing up – 3 each of the M12 dual lands. They are playable even in Modern, so they should do okay. If they are not reprinted in M13, and Modern does well, they should do even better.
 
Well, the project has begun. I’ll provide occasional updates.

 

Tournaments:

Thursday Night Magic Online (TNMO) for the upcoming week (March 29th):  M12 Sealed. I don’t know if that is four or six pack sealed. Doesn’t matter - the TNMO card for March is an alternative art Tectonic Edge.  That’s what makes it worth playing.   
 
Let’s look at the Constructed Tournaments breakdown for the week of March 14th        through March 20th.   Just 132 constructed events fired this week. Modern, Standard, Innistrad Block constructed and Pauper are as popular as always, and Legacy fired twice. The other formats were quiet, again. Classic made a couple runs at firing, but fell just short.
 
Format
Fired
Format
Fired
Standard
47
Classic
0
Pauper
32
Legacy
0
Innistrad Block Const.
23
 
 
Modern
33
All others
0
FYI: I got the number fired from the list of results, here.  
 
Cutting Edge Tech:
Standard:   As always, SCG held a Standard Open last weekend.  The format is diverse, but I didn’t notice anything that new. The Top 16 was Esper Control, Wolf Run Ramp, Frites. GR Aggro, BR Zombies and WBG Tokens. We have seen all of these archetypes before.
 
Modern: Modern play continues, with a ton of events including online PTQs and paper events. The week’s online Modern PTQ featured a number of archetypes: UW Aggro Control, Splinter Twin, Affinity and Pyromancer Ascension. Personally, I didn’t have much time to durdle around online, but I did play a few matches with RB Bump. Nice thing about that deck is that the matches are fast.
 
Innistrad Block Constructed: Well, with two major pillars of the format banned, the metagame will change. Last week’s decks were a lot of token decks, and a lot of decks tuned to beat tokens. What will see replace these decks? Maybe this?
 
RG Wolf Run Werewolves
Boin (3-1), ISD Block Constructed Daily #3606314 on 03/22/2012
14 Forest
Kessig Wolf Run
10 Mountain
Daybreak Ranger
Gatstaf Shepherd
Huntmaster of the Fells
Immerwolf
Instigator Gang
Mayor of Avabruck
Reckless Waif
Wolfbitten Captive
Moonmist

Sideboard
Full Moon's Rise
Geistflame
Naturalize
Witchbane Orb
or maybe we will just stick with tokens…
 
RW Tokens
_Batutinha_ (4-0), ISD Block Constructed Daily #3606314 on 03/22/2012
Clifftop Retreat
Mountain
12 Plains
Champion of the Parish
Cloistered Youth
Doomed Traveler
Fiend Hunter
Hellrider
Mikaeus, the Lunarch
Brimstone Volley
Devil's Play
Gather the Townsfolk
Midnight Haunting

Sideboard
Fiend Hunter
Geistflame
Grafdigger's Cage
Purify the Grave
Slayer of the Wicked
Witchbane Orb
Pauper: This week, storm won again, but rats and a few other archetypes did reasonably well. Nothing really new – but at least a decent mix. The ban hammer missed the format. I don’t know whether that is good or bad. 
 
Legacy and Classic: No Classic, but SCG ran a Legacy Open last week in Sacramento. The winning deck was interesting, to say the least. Unstable Mutation & Spectral Flight, in Legacy? And Psionic Blast – Holy Old School, Batman!
 
Blouses
Philip Contreras, Winner, SCG Legacy Open, Sacramento
Birds of Paradise
Island
Forest
Qasali Pridemage
Noble Hierarch
Geist of Saint Traft
Spectral Flight
Brainstorm
Troll Ascetic
Daze
Windswept Heath
Unstable Mutation
Wasteland
Tropical Island
Savannah
Psionic Blast
Tundra
Misty Rainforest
Spell Pierce

Sideboard
Umezawa's Jitte
Threads of Disloyalty
Path to Exile
Gaddock Teeg
Submerge
Chill
Mindbreak Trap

Card Prices:  

Notes: All my prices come from MTGOTraders.com. For cards that are available in multiple sets, I am quoting the most recent set’s price. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Primeval Titan is from M12. If I list a card as out of stock, don’t assume you can’t buy it.  MTGOTraders stocks their Bots first, so the MTGOTradersBot1, MTGOTradersBot2, MTGOTradersBot3, or MTGOTradersBot4 (and now 5 and 6, and MTGOTradersBuyBot1 and 2) often have the cards in stock even when the online store is out. Now, on to prices.
 
Standard prices are all over the map.  I’m not going to try to explain some of these corrections. Obliterator’s price crashed. Why? No idea. It never did find a deck – not really - so I’m not really sure why it went up, and even less sure why it crashed this week.
 
Standard & Block Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 24.14
Y
$ 23.31
+ $ 0.77
$ 23.22
Y
$ 22.65
+ $ 0.37
$ 18.84
Y
$ 19.26
- $ 2.49
 $ 17.45
Y
 $ 24.83
- $ 7.38
 $ 26.92
Y
 $ 27.27
- $ 0.35
$ 16.64
Y
$ 17.68
- $ 1.04
$ 12.64
Y
$ 14.73
- $ 2.09
(Huntmaster of the Fells)
$ 22.45
Y
$ 17.88
+ $ 4.57
$ 22.21
Y
$ 22.38
- $ 0.17
$ 17.87
Y
$ 17.42
+ $ 0.45
$ 9.46
Y
$ 9.79
- $ 0.33
$ 11.35
Y
$ 11.35
---
$ 13.50
Y
$ 13.45
+ $ 0.05
$ 19.51
Y
$ 21.73
- $ 2.22
$ 7.00
N
$ 5.46
+ $ 1.54
$ 17.97
Y
$ 20.72
- $ 2.75
$ 27.08
Y
$ 32.66
- $ 5.58
$ 42.59
Y
$ 46.81
- $ 4.22
$ 10.07
Y
$ 10.07
---
$ 8.99
Y
$ 9.36
- $ 0.37
$ 14.79
Y
$ 11.42
+ $ 3.37
$ 23.93
Y
$ 23.61
+ $ 0.32
$ 22.23
Y
$ 16.74
+ $ 5.49
$ 6.57
Y
$ 6.55
+ $ 0.02
 
Modern prices are fluctuating again this week. The format is really wide open, and seems just fine. . 
 
Modern Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 14.50
Y
$ 13.32
+ $ 1.18
$ 6.71
Y
$ 5.92
+ $ 0.79
$ 22.65
Y
$ 22.23
+ $ 0.42
$ 36.26
Y
$ 38.48
- $ 2.22
(Scalding Tarn)
$ 5.82
Y
$ 5.00
+ $ 0.82
$ 8.42
Y
$ 8.33
+ $ 0.09
$ 9.56
Y
$ 8.13
+ $ 1.43
$ 19.85
Y
$ 20.42
- $ 0.57
$ 68.55
Y
$ 69.80
- $ 0.25
$ 15.67
Y
$ 16.26
- $ 0.59
$ 14.30
Y
$ 11.51
+ $ 2.79
$ 15.85
Y
$ 16.66
- $ 0.81
$ 25.99
Y
$ 23.00
+ $ 2.99
$ 12.50
Y
$ 12.78
- $ 0.28
$ 16.87
Y
$ 14.18
+ $ 2.69
 
Legacy / Classic prices are shifting around a bit, but we don’t have a trend here. Scavenging Ooze is still up in the “just buy the commander deck” range.
 
Legacy / Classic Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 102.10
Y
$ 102.10
---
$ 27.99
Y
$ 28.75
- $ 0.76
$ 32.40
Y
$ 32.46
- $ 0.06
$ 31.98
Y
$ 30.49
+ $ 1.49
$ 64.94
Y
$ 64.94
---
$ 23.17
Y
$ 24.92
- $ 1.75
$ 30.17
Y
$ 32.67
- $ 2.40
$ 19.30
Y
$ 19.30
---
$ 9.96
Y
$ 9.96
---
$ 34.29
Y
$ 32.57
+ $ 1.72
$ 39.39
Y
$ 39.68
- $ 0.29
$ 20.87
Y
$ 18.64
+ $ 2.23
$ 98.35
Y
$ 100.28
- $ 1.93
$ 6.64
Y
$ 6.64
---
$ 8.68
Y
$ 8.68
---
$ 5.94
Y
$ 5.94
---
$ 12.41
Y
$ 11.80
+ $ 0.61
$ 18.09
Y
$ 18.60
- $ 0.51
$ 9.90
Y
$ 9.90
---
$ 4.69
Y
$ 5.38
- $ 0.69
$ 39.97
Y
$ 39.97
---
$ 40.22
Y
$ 40.22
---
$ 22.32
Y
$ 22.30
+ $ 0.02
$ 23.32
Y
$ 21.33
+ $ 1.99
$ 18.66
Y
$ 18.66
---
(RishadanPort)
$ 29.55
Y
$ 29.55
---
$ 9.92
Y
$ 9.32
+ $ 0.60
 
Pauper is a really popular format, and the format is interesting (if you like control vs. storm, which some people do.) Prices this week were generally up, almost across the board.
 
Pauper Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 2.95
Y
$ 2.95
---
$ 1.75
Y
$ 1.36
+ $ 0.39
$ 1.68
Y
$ 1.31
+ $ 0.38
$ 4.37
Y
$ 4.37
---
$ 3.55
Y
$ 3.30
+ $ 0.25
$ 0.90
Y
$ 0.57
+ $ 0.33
$ 3.18
Y
$ 2.74
+ $ 0.44
$ 7.09
Y
$ 6.06
+ $ 1.03
$ 0.89
Y
$ 0.78
+ $ 0.11
$ 3.35
Y
$ 2.59
+ $ 0.76
$ 0.65
Y
$ 0.65
---
$ 5.29
Y
$ 4.71
+ $ 0.58
$ 2.22
Y
$ 2.22
---
(Accumulated Knowledge)
$ 2.92
Y
$ 2.34
+ $ 0.58
$ 6.48
Y
$ 5.83
+ $ 0.65
$ 2.15
Y
$ 1.37
+ $ 0.78
$ 2.19
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 1.14
Y
$ 1.14
+ $ 0.20
$ 3.70
Y
$ 3.33
+ $ 0.37
$ 3.80
N
$ 3.15
+ $ 0.65
$ 3.32
Y
$ 3.48
- $ 0.16
$ 1.18
Y
$ 1.03
+ $ 0.15
$ 0.83
Y
$ 0.83
---
$ 3.64
Y
$ 2.51
+ $ 1.13
$ 0.92
Y
$ 0.81
+ $ 0.11

The Good Stuff:

Per suggestion, instead of the top ten, I’m going to all list the non-foil, non-premium cards on MTGO that cost more than $25 each. That’s over $100 per playset. (okay, a playset of Vampiric Tutors is one in any sanctioned format, but I don’t care.) Another interesting note: Heath kindly shares the official MTGOTraders.com price list with me. That list includes over 100 products worth $25 each, but many of them are precons, Duel Decks and specials. The list also includes 6 promo cards. Cutting those out leaves this week’s list of MTGO gold:
 
Most Expensive Cards
Price
Rarity
Set
 $    102.10
R
MED
 $       98.35
R
MI
 $       69.80
R
FUT
 $       64.94
R
AP
 $       43.58
M
NPH
 $       40.22
R
WL
 $       39.97
R
VI
 $       39.39
R
AP
 $       36.26
R
DIS
 $       32.57
R
OD
(Jace, the Mind Sculptor)
 $       32.40
M
WWK
 $       31.98
U
TE
 $       30.17
R
CMD
(RishadanPort)
 $       29.55
R
MM
(UndergroundSea)
 $       29.53
R
ME4
(UndergroundSea)
 $       27.99
R
ME2
(Sword of Feast and Famine)
 $       27.08
M
MBS
(Sorin, Lord of Innistrad)
 $       26.92
M
DKA
 $       25.22
R
5DN
And the big number: $7,362.89
 
That is what it would cost to buy one copy of every non-foil card worth $0.05 or more on MTGO, at retail, from MTGOtraders.com as of last Wednesday.   This does exclude non-promo basic lands, but I did not remove duplicates. The big number includes the prices of half a dozen different Jace Berelens, for example. Any cards with a lot of reprints – like Naturalize or Mana Leak – will show up quite often. Even so – that is quite a number.
 

Weekly Highlights:

I was at GP Nashville. The venue was, frankly, insane. They have a flatboat ride – you get a narrated, ¾ mile long ride on a flatboat on a river stocked with fish, etc., around an island, past a couple waterfalls – and all of it is inside the hotel. And that is just one of three massive indoor atriums with flowing water, trees, plants, etc. etc.   Video here. And the event was great fun.
  
PRJ
 
“one million words” on MTGO, when and if I can get there. 

 

 

25 Comments

Experiment Design by Lagrange at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 09:47
Lagrange's picture
5

Re: Experiment Design

I think the general idea of testing the speculative predictions is good. You should consider 2 things.

1)
There can be a large bid-ask spread. An example could be the Tarmogoyf which is listed at $68.55 but the MTGOtraders-buyingbot is buying it for $59.76. Evaluating your strategy by just benchmarking to the MTGOtraders.com selling pricelist will bias your results towards larger profits. The bid-ask spread tends to be smaller on more popular cards and since you only plan on selling after a significant price increase that could reduce the bias. Nevertheless, the profits will be biased with the current experiment design. You could use a bid-ask spread around 10% on popular cards and 40-50% on non-popular cards.

2)
You plan on only selling “winners” and hold on to “losers” i.e. you only sell with a realized gain. I am not sure that is a rational strategy. You should consider also selling the losers at some point if you have a better use for the tix. For example if enough people comment to you that part of your card stock will not be a “winner” and you have a better investment option then liquidate your “loser” position, take the loss and reinvest.

PS: I suggested the foil Orim’s Chant… but you should definitely not buy it using your strategy. I made a (very) late comment on that last week.

I deliberately ignored the by one million words at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 15:46
one million words's picture

I deliberately ignored the //buy/sell spread, along with the discount you can get if you buy in the marketplace, hang out in Auction, or shop BOTs. All of these will get you cards for less than the retail price, but all of these require you to invest time and effort. That's another debate. I realize the buy/sell difference is probably larger, but I'm just testing the concept that you can profit by investing in certain cards. I'm trying to hold the other variables constant.

That said, if Goyf jumps 3 TIX, I'm not going to claim I made a profit.

I reply to you there quite by Kumagoro42 at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 19:06
Kumagoro42's picture

I reply to you here quite randomly re: the speculation project, just to say: my comment last week was implicitly intended to say that you can succesfully (no skill, no luck involved) speculate over the bot spread, as I did, if you have a lot of patience, some time, and don't mind to make only tiny, tiny crumbs of tix. You can test that to verify it's true, but I assure you it's true.

What you are doing, instead, I would be very uncomfortable with, because it's really the same thing as predicting the stock market based on "how smart I am at seeing where the big business are" and/or "what my smartass friends tell me to invest into". It also reminds me of someone who's trying to test how much money you can make by betting on horse races. It's never a science, it's just a combination of acumen and luck.

The reason why there were so many anecdotes in the comments is because most of those aren't repeatable. I bought Elesh for 2. That was just luck. I bought her because I liked her, not because I was thinking, "wow, that's an investment, I can see this card going as up as 30 next year". It just taught me to not wait too long before buying the Mythics I like to have in my collection. But I'm not more able to predict the market now. Nobody really is, they're just all shots in the dark in the end, even when supported by some serious reasoning. It's just a matter of greater or lesser probability of being a winning horse.

You can make tix off the bot by GainsBanding at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 21:43
GainsBanding's picture

You can make tix off the bot price spread, but at 2 tix an hour (at most), is that really a good use of your time? Just stay 15 minutes longer at work, you'll make more money.

(the excitement of beating the system is higher trading back and forth on bots, I'll give you that)

It seems to me that this is by Phroggie at Thu, 03/29/2012 - 18:04
Phroggie's picture

It seems to me that this is part of "One Million Word"s point... everyone who writes an article tends to say how easy it is and anyone can do it, but the truth is it's not. So he's putting this to the test, doing it in an "easy and simple" way it's good indicative evidence on whether it is easy or not.

You need so much knowledge of the game and history, there's a huge time and experience investment in being able to speculate and drive up your value. And I like your Elesh note, I got her late last year and sold her for 7 tix (didn't want to, she's great but needed the tix) a few months later and she's hitting the low 20s I drafted another, almost the same day she dropped back down to 12 tix - held her (partly in protest hehe!) and then one weekend all of a sudden I got 32 for her. You can make some educated guesses but there's a big luck factor going on unless you get really "hardcore" about and that's not an attractive option for the majority of players :)

I tried out Phyrexian by KaraZorEl at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 09:48
KaraZorEl's picture

I tried out Phyrexian Obliterator in standard and went 0-3 before dropping. I had 3x Sword of War and Peace in the deck, but still couldn't win. The card might have been good before the Innistrad block, but now it's a bit too slow. It runs into Mana Leak or Dissipate, and it's generally just a bad idea. If your opponent has Wurmcoil Engine (which many decks do), they'll just eat the five and laugh at you. I really love mono-black, but Innistrad has not given it enough tools to be successful.

I don't think Obliterator had by Lee at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 10:06
Lee's picture

I don't think Obliterator had a deck before INS either. I am almost certain the price was driven nearly entirely by speculation. It may have been bought up more after it was played in a tournament placing deck 2(?) weeks ago, but it hasn't really made a showing since and people may be trying to dump them.

Obliterator by grapplingfarang at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 10:40
grapplingfarang's picture

Honestly, I think right now is the best place Obliterator has ever had in Std. With the rise of Zombies, Obliterator is a huge part of the sideboard plan against Wolf Run, Mono Red, or GR aggro.

How long term are you looking by bogtrog at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 10:44
bogtrog's picture

How long term are you looking in you speculation strategy? Right now my favorite spec pick is Mikaus the Unhallowed, but I think the long game is the way to go with him. He is a sure fire casual and Commander staple mythic from what will be a underdrafted set. You can get them for about 3 tix now and I think once the supply dries up he will become a 6-9 tix card. It may take some time though.

Snapcaster by h_b_k_02 at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 10:51
h_b_k_02's picture

I'd pick these up and wait a year until redemption deadlines hit. I've got 13 right now and refuse to sell. I think they'll hit $20+ at some point next year. I'm willing to wait.

trading critique by mattlewis at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 11:13
mattlewis's picture

I will comment on your picks.

1) Tarmgoyf, this seems strange as you had just finished talking about how you wouldn't buy into modern. And your first pick is a modern staple. This one seems a mistake.

2) Onslaught fetchlands, I like this one, nice long term pick up at good prices, as long as they are not bloodstained mire, the least played and it was printed as a promo.

3) DA mythics, I like this, but the timing seems wrong. 4-5 weeks out, prices will probably be lower.

4) Random DA rares, cheap is fine, and can be worth a gamble, but not my favorite strategy due to high transaction costs.

5) Past in Flames, yep, a good pick up. I think most INN mythics will hold value in the coming year, and this one is Modern playable. If it breaks in Standard, look out.

6) Sun Titan, dislike this one. Heavily printed as a promo and now in two core sets.

7) Innistrad duals, good pick ups. Almost can't lose if you are looking out to Fall Standard and beyond.

8) M12 duals, printed too often, dislike this.

As for your core trading principles, they are all quite reactionary. Selling because a card has spike might be a mistake, because it might be going higher. It's better to take a step back and see why that card has spiked. If it's for no apparent reason, and I mean no trace of an increase in playability in any format, then go ahead and sell. If it has increased playability, it might just be the start of a move higher.

The second rule and third rule combined will work against you in the end. It's good to be invested, but sometimes there are no good opportunities around, and always moving from tix into cards will ensure you pickup some mistakes. With your third principle, more and more of your capital will be tied up in mistakes as you wait for a profit that might never materialize.

I'd suggest wait for the best opportunities (often to do with set rotation and timing of releases) and definitely understand that when you have made a mistake it's best to salvage some tix and find better opportunities.

For a primer on how I think about speculation, check my article out. The first half might not be of much use as it is a primer on the economics of modo, but the second half goes over how I look for value online.

http://tinyurl.com/42lez9y

a couple people mentioned by one million words at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 15:38
one million words's picture

a couple people mentioned buying a high-priced, volatile card like Goyf and riding it up. So I'm trying it. Just one copy.

I bought only the really low priced Mythics that might have a chance of jumping. Agree that the this is not the time to by the costly ones.

I wanted to try one Titan. Right now, Primeval is high, and grave and Inferno seem to be at the tops of thier cycles. Av. erstored seems like it might have some decent white, so I'm betting on a UW control deck wanting Sun Titan. It is also about half the price it was at a few months ago, so i think the promo issue is past.

The duals are really cheap, played in Modern, and will almost certainly not be reprinted again, which will drive them up over time.

I agree with most of what you say, but I want pretty restrictive rules, otherwise the debate will degenerate into whether I sodl out at the right time, or took a loss too early, etc. I'll probably hae to revise that - maybe have a periodic poll on whether I should cash in certain losses. We have some time to figure that out.

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Pete-

I really like what you've started here and the comments. I think it would make a whole column and could be a great educational piece for young investors who 'get Magic' but not the stock market, as much of the dicussions seems to be applying commodity lessons to MTGO.

Out of curiosity, how much did you invest? I might try and put a similiar amount down in a different strategy and compare notes periodically on value, timing and lessons learned. There are probably some others who'd do the same. I have an account which is mostly empty which I could use just for this project.

Again, thanks for your work.

300 tix ... right there by opal mouse at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 12:31
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Reading is fundamental

My investments for the by schizoidman at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 13:39
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My investments for the future:

INN Duals
Lingering Souls
Gravecrawler
Geralf's Messenger
Dungeon Geist
Snapcaster Mage

For the duals, I've been investing in the blue ones, Sulfur Falls and Hinterland Harbor. If we look at the SOM Block duals, the blues saw the greatest increase in price. I see these as pretty low risk specs. It is very doubtful that WOTC is going to print another set of enemy duals, which is only the real thing that I see as keeping the price from reaching 3-5 tix each.

Lingering Souls is obviously a very powerful card and I think it is a steal at the ~.5 tix it's been going for. This speculation is a bit risky since it was just banned in Block, so perhaps WOTC is beginning to regret printing this card and will, when SOM Block rotates, likewise ban Lingering Souls in standard. This card won the recent Legacy GP and I wouldn't be surprised if it became a player in Modern. If it is banned in Standard I still think it will go up in the long run.

Gravecrawler/Geralf's Messenger -- Zombies is one of the top decks now and I see no reason that it won't remain so once SOM Block rotates.

Dungeon Geist -- Same as above. Though it has fallen out of favor, once Corrosive Gale rotates this could certainly be a major deck.

Snapcaster Mage -- The most difficult to properly examine. I am incredibly curious to see where he ends up by this time next year. It takes quite a lot for a rare to break the 10 dollar mark, much less hit the 15 or so some people might expect out of a card this powerful. Stoneforge Mystic was over 15 but was in Worldwake, the equivalent of DKA which had a much shorter draft-time than INN. Likewise, Birthing Pod hit 13 last year in a set with an even shorter draft-time than INN or WW. I'm pretty sure that Snapcaster Mage will go up. That being said, I would be incredibly surprised if he broke the 15 tix mark. Stoneforge Mystic and Birthing Pod were both pretty dominant during their price hike. Snapcaster Mage, on the other hand, sees play in a plethora of different decks, from control to Delver, but, unlike SM or BP, is not a signature card in either of those decks. He provides value, but is not a role-player.

I'd be very curious to see what people have to say on this Snapcaster Mage matter.

Investing in big-block rares by walkerdog at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 22:14
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Investing in big-block rares (not mythics) is generally a turble turble plan. Niche rares such as Geist (powerful, but still only borderline playable atm) and Geralf's Messenger (too much Black in the cost) are turble investments unless you're going to resell with every spike.

For the long game, you want cheap mythics and universally playable rares/uncs. Lingering souls might be okay, Snappy is probably fine (since even though it's a big-block rare, it's universally playable), and gravecrawler might be a decent guess.

Inn duals are okay but I wouldn't hang onto them after they spike post-rotation to avoid risking duals being printed in m13 that outclass them (or just are them).

Oh man, I have the Vorapede by MBeasley at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 14:54
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Oh man, I have the Vorapede argument every damn time I play paper. Nobody believes me. I think, and keep your laughing down, that:

Vorapede > Thrun.

On a long term curve here, Vorapede is nasty, and Wizards announced that they want to lower the power level of creatures to go down. (Read anything that R&D has mentioned recently in interviews). That is why we are pretty much guaranteed that Titans aren't being reprinted. Vorapede takes 2 removal spells to kill. And very few decks can deal with that late game. That is why it is run in my Ramp Deck. Not to mention if you clone it, the clone gains undying. I think it is overlooked and will be a green staple. I know, Thrun is 4/4 for 4 mana, hexproof, amazing, etc.. But Vorapede is nasty.

When it comes to Snappy, he can actually be used the way he is supposed to be used. With no Flashback in Avacyn Restored, there might be some badass things to flash back with the once Format Dominating Snappy the Snapcasting Mage.

Oh and speculative note, which this is about, how about you put Mox Opal on the "future buy list" and buy it when SOM is cycling out. I think it will be one of the few cards from SOM that have lasting appeal.

**I'm confused. When SOM block was around, Tezzeret was owning the format. It was winning every tournament, and they didn't ban that. So why make bans in ISD block when you didn't do the same in SOM block? It isn't like Intangible Virtue and Lingering Souls were the greatest card in the deck. It just makes Curse of Death's hold that much better. That means that BW decks will just change to BWg, and there will still be RW. Although I doubt Werewolves will catch on.

- Smart choice with Isolated Chapel. Sulfur Falls was once the #1 land, now it's one of the cheapest in paper. It is still the best land though.

***I am taking 3-1 odds that Goyf is being reprinted in M13.

I don't agree with your by Paul Leicht at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 15:31
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I don't agree with your assessment of WHY Voropede is the card to watch. But that said I am no pro and certainly no merchant. So I take my own opinion with a grain of salt. On to the thing you said that does jibe with my own thoughts (aside from the obviousness that is snapcaster) Mox Opal is certainly a staple now for any deck that has easy metalcraft. Unfortunately it is pricy enough that people would rather just stick to the moxen that are more readily available. Maybe when SOM cycles the price will drop a little but I doubt it. As you indicate it will probably remain stable or raise.

In Re: Lingering Souls/Intangible Virtue this was clearly a popularity ban rather than a broken beyond belief ban. Same reasoning as Mystic and Jace 2. People were including these cards in every deck pretty much and those who weren't were vocal about how much they disliked seeing them everywhere. Being ubiquitous is enough to earn a ban these days I guess. And tokens will still be popular even without the flagships because the theme is so imbedded in the sets. Too bad for ISD block because there are plenty of other interesting possibilities that will be ignored because Hellriders + tokens is just awesomeness waiting to happen.

I'll put down 10 tix on goyf by walkerdog at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 22:42
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I'll put down 10 tix on goyf not being reprinted in m13, cool?

Each time you publish your by smack8001 at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 15:45
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Each time you publish your investment portfolio of cards, you should put the total value so we can see how your entire portfolio is doing. Some speculators like to brag about their gains while hiding their losses, which is you know, illegal in real-world investing.

Purchase price was 300 by one million words at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 15:48
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Purchase price was 300 TIX.

I'll publish the inventory table (card, set, number, purchase price, current price, net) about once a month, plus info on sales and new acquisitions.

The speculation portion is a by greyes3 at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 18:09
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The speculation portion is a great add to your series. I'm not sold on all your investment choices but some are certainly smart choices. DKA mythics are excellent choices, as are some of the big standard uncommons. Craig Wescoe wrote a pretty nice article on buying up uncommons on brainburstdotcom, definetly worth checking out.

Interesting buying decisions. by char49d at Fri, 03/23/2012 - 18:53
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Interesting buying decisions. I mentioned previously I think speculation is luck based, so I won't repeat myself, but I did have a suggestion. Because you are splitting your investment between all types of cards, might I suggest listing the Price to Earnings Ratio for each investment?

The reason I would never personally invest in Goyfs for speculation is they have to make an extremely large gain relative to other cards, which seems unlikely. A 20 ticket card has to go up 10 tickets to yield the same P/E ratio as a 10 ticket card going up 5. Even though I don't personally think it is going anywhere, I would sooner invest in 5 Vorapede than 1 Sorin for this reason. It seems more likely to me that Vorapede goes to 8 than Sorin hits roughly 40 tickets, although both are possible.

I like your methodology for the most part, it seems well thought out. Keep writing the best articles on modo.

Speculating is a game, but by MBeasley at Sat, 03/24/2012 - 13:06
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Speculating is a game, but also a game that you can have a little more control over than something like the stock market.

I remember bringing up the idea of buying Honor of the Pure when it was 0.10 a piece. I had bought 30. I sold them at $1.50.

But people laughed at me when I said to buy Honor of the Pure. The same in paper. This is what happened to me at FNM last night:

"Oh man Liliana is Terrible... So what do you value Liliana at?"

I think the main issue with buying any card is that people do most of their buying based on the decks currently being played and completely forget the simplest thing of all. READ THE CARDS.

There are a lot of great cards that might not be used in a deck 'At The Moment', but that doesn't mean they aren't good. And if you buy them before people catch on, and you would think this is easy for people, but it isn't, then you will make money.

And of course I have made bad choices, but I like to keep my losses to a minimum. That being said, trying to trade (Buy/Sell) STD is probably the hardest thing to do since there are only 5 decks at the moment, but I like to speculate on what I am playtesting and whether or not it will catch on. I'll give you my 2 most current examples.

I have 2 decks I have been playing, one has won a few 8 man queues but isn't ready for DE's, and the other is built getting ready for Avacyn Restored.

Deck 1: Mono Black Smallpox.

This is my favorite deck. If played well, it is not only the most annoying deck you will ever play against, but also has the cards, thanks to DKA, to be a great deck.

It runs Liliana, Gravecrawler, Black Cat, Smallpox, Despise, and a few others.

It is as close to mono-black control you will get to in STD. It mills hands, lands, and has creature removal, so your opponent is forced to top-deck. I think this is the first deck to utilize Liliana to her fullest potential, and does wonders against all the creature based decks running around at the moment.

The second deck is something I'm still working on. It's RB Vamps.

The deck is really good, and DKA has some amazing Vampires (Look at what Falkenrath Aristocrat does), but it's weak in the 2 drop spot. I think that if they release a top of the line 2 drop vampire in Avacyn Restored, you have yourself a deck that makes Zombies look like it's Tier 3.

Olivia is already one of the best cards in ISD, Falkenwrath Aristocrat is hard to kill, Bloodline Keeper is the Standard staple creature for Black, and you can even add in Sorin. Either way, if you get to the point where you can flip Bloodline Keeper by turn 4, and you have 3 vamps on the board at least (If 2 get killed), you win the game.

I have won some 1v1 2 Tix matches with having Bloodline Keeper on the board, with summoning sickness, putting out an Aristocrat, flipping Keeper and winning. But it's still a little hit and miss. I'm thinking adding white for Sorin and Vault might make it a little better, but It's still being worked out. Either way, it has something that you need, and Zombies can't deal with... Artifact destruction.

Zombie decks are very weak. They are too dependent on getting that really good opening hand. But otherwise you are just drawing off the top. At least there are ways to get Vamps using a Planeswalker or a token maker and you are set. So you want to throw a Hero of Bladehold at me? That's cool. I'll stick with my aristocrat. And for late game, there isn't much out there better than Olivia either taking out creatures or taking control of Titans.

CUBE by apaulogy at Sat, 03/24/2012 - 21:57
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CUBE