Editorial Section:
Hello and welcome to another episode of State of the Program! This week marks another week in the life of MTGO, and another release event is in the books. To begin this week, I have to fall on my prognostication sword a bit. I called Jace leveling out at 24ish tickets. Turns out I was off by 10 at least and the lowest I saw him this week was around 34-ish for sale. That indicates either a big difference in what I expected the demand to be or what I expected the supply to be. I checked the numbers of players in events and they were about what I expected them to be, which leaves higher demand for Jace than I expected. I expected his price to bottom out at the typical "top rare" of the new set level, but it appears that everyone and their second cousins are interested in having a playset or more of Jace's.
In other news, I want to send out some congratulations to Team Turbo Lorthos!! These brave souls brought a bevy of Lorthos the Tidemaker decks to the recent Extended PTQ in Fargo and even managed to sneak out a few match wins with the Octopus that could. The fine folks from Parallax Games fought through some crazy decks throughout the day and had a great time. I'd also like to thank the guys at Paradox games for hosting a fine event!
Back to the MTGO realm! My recent foray into the world of Paper Magic has led me to some different points of view, which I must admit is a great thing for writing. This is especially interesting since a lot of the topics of discussion in paper Magic actually coincide with our own beloved topics of conversation. Namely, Legacy and the Reserved List. As I've been doing a lot of listening and a lot of talking about it with my folks for the past few weeks I figured that now was as good of a time as any to dig into them.
As usual though, I like to clarify terms to ensure that everyone is on the same page for the discussion. When I speak of Legacy I mean Online Legacy, which we've already heard will be short "some card" at the launch online. Which cards and for how long remains to be seen, of course, however, we'll be rocking Legacy Events on MTGO before the year is out. So, what do I foresee the impact of MTGO Legacy? First of all, I see it as the near death of Classic. And I'm not using hyperbole, I really think that Classic, the format, will wither considerably when Legacy is launched online, even if it's a gimped Legacy. And not because the name will be shared with a paper format, but simply because it creates the perceived creation of an easier to enter format. Even if it's NOT any easier to enter, the perception is that it will have a lower barrier to entry than Classic. Probably because when you consider Legacy and Vintage, there's an extreme difference between buying into vintage and buying into Legacy... that perception, correct or not... grounded in reality or not... will likely persist. And that perception will skew the thoughts of the newcomers to the MTGO scene. The second reason is that Classic will be more powerful. Unlike the previous statement, this one is likely to be true. Again, based on the way the formats are approached an the entire reason for being, the Classic format will be more powerful over time, than the Legacy format. Simply because the format is not so much 'created' as it is 'allowed'. Meaning that no cards being banned from Classic isn't a created format, whereas a format like Legacy or Extended is created and maintained to allow a certain level of power as determined by the DCI via banned and restricted lists.
The impacts of the format coming to MTGO have already started to be felt, namely with cards that are Classic-ly good by Legacy-ly great. Cards like the duals, for example, have a lot of extra power in Legacy matches due to the ability of the games to go a little longer and be a bit less 'spell dense'. Lastly, I really hope that many of the current Eternal based formats (like Tribal Wars, Prismatic, et al) will be modified to Legacy based to help reign in some of the more insane combination decks that tend to warp the format from time to time.
I firmly believe that Legacy Online will largely supplant Classic as the Eternal format of choice for many players. Especially if they can sync up the lists between MTGO and MTGP in the next year or so after launch. There will be a ton of extra demand for the cards and the players will have a huge global playtesting and gaming community to access.
The other item I've seen a lot of debate over, and actually kind of ties into MTGO in a sideways way is the update to the Reserved List policy. While the reserve list still technically exists it has been completely neutered with the recent statement about "cards from special decks being exempt". So that Phyrexian Negator in your collection? Get ready for a foil one in the new Duel Decks coming out soon. That Masticore? Likely reprinted in From the Vault; Relics. So what? MTGO doesn't abide no steenkin' Reserved List anyway, right? Right! However, it does get the same products as paper (Multiplayer stuff notwithstanding, I guess). That means that each card that comes out in a paper product gets more copies or early copies into the system that much faster. Instead of waiting for Negators, we get them very soon. Instead of waiting for Masticore's, we'll likely get them with FTV:Relics. These changes to the Reserve List don't suddenly allow them to reprint cards in any new paper set of course, but I suspect that part of these changes are what will allow Online Legacy to come out within the next nine months.
Discussion Items:
Quarter One Development Update -
In case you missed this (and that's entirely possible that you did...) there was a doozy of an update from Gordon Culp in regards to the current state of MTGO and the development milestones we were given in the second half of last year. While not all of the news was good news it was all good to see laid out in black and white and all official-like.
Force of Will, barriers, and Legacy -
This debate is eerily reminiscent of the "Reprint IPA" debates we had on the boards a few years ago. Essentially the perception is that the price of <card x> is keeping people from playing <format y>. And while I have no doubts that there are people that would play Classic if Force of Will was 20 tickets instead of 60. Oddly enough, that argument is applicable to pretty much every format all the time... even Pauper!
A plea to purchase Urza's -
dangerlinto has made a heartfelt plea to the online community to keep Urza's from becoming the next scarce set on MTGO. I continually trust that MTGO will take care of MTGO even if it means that some players spend extra cash in speculation and that will allow for the system to find a balancing point.
Legacy vs Classic -
More and more about the impending Legacy changes on MTGO. A huge thread, but with lots of good debates, regardless of which side of the debate you're on!
Card Price Discussion:
Now that the Extended Season is wrapping up you'll see the cards that were Extended inflated start to deflate again. You can see that this week in the Tarmogoyf, Duals, and Engineered Explosives all taking a serious slide this week. Expect more of the same over the next few weeks as the sell of Extended cards gathers steam.
As for climbers, our lovely Angel of Protection and Killamajigs has recouped some of her recently decreased value. Thoughts on the MTGO boards had tied her decrease to the loss of redemption, which could be tied together a bit, however, she continues to defend her price point now that Standard online is catching back up to Paper Standard.
Card Price Graphs:
baneslayer angel chart
eye of ugin chart
maelstrom pulse chart
elspeth, knight_errant chart
savannah chart
tundra chart
master of the wild hunt chart
noble hierarch chart
filigree angel chart
elvish archdruid chart
filigree angel chart
eye of ugin chart
elvish archdruid chart
platinum angel chart
goblin guide chart
story circle chart
great sable stag chart
darksteel colossus chart
tsabo's web chart
xantid swarm chart
tarmogoyf chart
jace, the mind sculptor chart
hallowed fountain chart
engineered explosives chart
omnath, locus of mana chart
abyssal persecutor chart
stomping ground chart
umezawa's jitte chart
stirring wildwood chart
extirpate chart
kazuul, tyrant of the cliffs chart
avatar _ anowon, the ruin sage chart
anowon, the ruin sage chart
terastodon chart
joraga warcaller chart
wolfbriar elemental chart
novablast wurm chart
amulet of vigor chart
comet storm chart
omnath, locus of mana chart
Card Price Tables:
Conclusion:
As a final note, I'll be heading to the Midwest Master's Series in Minneapolis this weekend and if anyone will be in the area it would be awesome to say hello and chat a bit! I'll be rocking my PureMTGO t-shirt, so if you're on the lookout, I'll be trying to snag a top 8 slot and get a free pass to GenCon this summer! Until then, I hope everyone has a great week and topdecks like a champ!
46 Comments
Does anybody actually think that the power 9 wont be in ME4? Wizards is not foolish... Classic will be fine when the horde of new players that hear about their chance to grab the online versions of the cards they've always wanted to play with flock to the program. If you don't think the power 9 are in ME4 than tell me the cards that will sell the set... sinkhole, workshop, andddddddd? Wizards wont do all that coding and development to sit with another exodus on their hands.
I for one am fairly certain they will not be in ME4 or 5 or XI or whatnot. Why not? Gut instinct plus what they have said in the past.
In the unlikely event than any Power 9 ever see print online, it will not be in a buyable set but as hard to come by promo cards.
Sure if only 50 people want to play online Vintage, then that is a good idea-insert sarcasm here-
I think WotC would prefer to keep the power 9 rare and expensive, instead of each being just another $20 rare. Again, in the unlikely event that they're brought online in the first place.
More likely that they will be online than not.
Death's Shadow went up from 0.4 to 3.0
Did the chart miss it ?
I was gunning for P9 in ME4, but with all the legacy talk, I am no longer confident about it. My guesses for ME4: Sinkhole, Maze of Ith, Elemental Blasts, Regrowth (I think those are the only worthwhile pre-Mirage Legacy cards left), then some vintage cards like Library, Workshop, Mana Vault, Sol Ring, Time Vault. Cards like that will help classic have its own identity (especially Workshop), but it won't be enough without power. It will be dark days for classic until it becomes vintage (which I am still hoping for in ME5).
But look at the other guy's series on this site.. 1020 cards left, and only 20 or 30 that anyone wants. They'd better start doing a ton of promos or something.
so basicaly with your card prediction we,l have kinda like a lobotomized vintage? all but power? i can,t say i like that.coz i love vintage and power 8 are so pretty(timetwister excluded)i can,t pray for a time twister in my opening hand every game.
Why deaths shadow jumps in so high?
Its the key card in this weeks Building On A Budget. Happens a lot.
If the power nine are not in ME4 then classic will fall as Legacy takes its place, once a format dies its hard to bring it back.
The ascendancy of paper Legacy and the decline of paper Classic doesn’t help, either.
What on Earth is "paper classic"? Are you referring to Vintage? Although Vintage numbers are slightly down from its recent peak, the format is still alive and well, although at a strange equilibrium with the most powerful archetypes dominating. I think you're overreaching a touch.
Check out the recent Ben Bleiweiss series on the subject on Starcity.
at this point i feel the FoW barrier argument is running dry.. time and time again writers here have written articles proving that FoW isn't a necessity to play.. then you look at the top lists from wizards and theres often a majority of deck there that don't have FoW.. same for Legacy.. writing about all the deck types theres several competitive ones that don't need it.. I'm not saying there isn't a price barrier, but it's more along maybe the lands not just FoW imo
Necessary? No. But judging by winning decks (in online classic) approx 2/3rds of those run playsets of fow. Just to clarify.
While I don't have the classic statistics in front of me, I do know that while doing my Legacy research, Force of Will was played in 24 of the 47 decklists I researched.
There are plenty of decklists not using the expensive counterspell. Like I said earlier, without them though, you can't play blue. Very few if any decks utilitizing blue don't use Force of Will.
So go buy a deck not using Force of Will.....win a bunch of tournaments and then turn those packs into tixs and buy force of wills. 80)~
Yeah FoW is not a requirement for tourney level classic (or, I assume, Legacy). I've been doing it for 4 or 5 months now and still only have 2 FoW (ie, cannot make a deck that needs it). And there are some cheap(er) options... RDW, the Storm build that doesn't use Lion's Eye Diamond, Elves, Belcher (ok those last two aren't happening in Classic right now, but I think they are viable in Legacy). But it gets expensive, no doubt about it. Even if you don't play FoW, you run into Undergound Sea, Bayou, Tarmogoyf, Vampiric Tutor, Demonic Tutor, and then the cheaper cards like Dark Confidant and Thoughtseize you need four of, so that adds up. Not complaining because I've had a blast getting into the format recently. The nice thing is that once you make your initial investment, a lot of the cards go in different decks, so each new deck you build gets cheaper. And it's not like these cards are going to go down in value anytime soon.
ok, the ones that are banned in Legacy will probably lose value when that comes online.
Vintage is just not a very interactive format. Legacy on the other hand is similar to extended but with spells that actually keep the creature creep in check. Legacy has combo, but not as degenerate as vintage. Turn 1-2 kills being pretty easy to hit compared to turn 1-2. Sure Legacy has some soft locks that you can hit on turn 1-2 but not many reliable kills that aren't easily disrupted. ANT is a strong deck but not the easiest to play, and not as reliable as aggro-control strategies.
Also most playgroups are more likely to play Legacy than they are Vintage rules for 2 reasons.
#1 one guy would always play a powered Deck
#2 the other guys either don't own or want to use their power and risk damage of any sort.
I don't own power personally, but I can guarantee I would never sleeve it up if I did. And one of my friends would play his power in every deck he could create. He'd do this simply because winning, casual games no less, is that important to him. He's a true Spike to the fullest.
I can tell from your first statement that you have never actually played vintage.
Vintage is a crazy interactive format. People always badmouth what they don't understand.
There are no non-interactive decks in Vintage. Those decks lose. If you don't interact with your opponent within the first turn or two then you lose, that's the way it goes. This is why pure beatdown decks like Zoo aren't playable. Kird Apes can't outrace Time Vault.
FOW is not a barrier to play......Research has shown there are plenty of viable successful decklists not using the card. The problem is that without owning FOW you really can't play the color.
I feel the P9 will eventually make its way online. Unfortunately I doubt it will be in MED4, which is sad.
Sadly they can make another MED1 and if MED4 is anyhting like it, we will have a set that won't sell, prices high availability low with Classic dying as a result.
whats with psabo web and xanthic ?
both are legacy sideboard cards that see infrequent use, someone may be hoarding
Minor correction, there was only one member of Team Turbo Lorthos actually playing the namesake deck (myself), everyone else was wearing the shirts as a sign of solidarity. It's a terribly bad deck, I couldn't convince my friends to hamstring all of their chances by running it (nor did I want them to!) Definitely the best PTQ ever, though, in terms of sheer fun.
med4... i await fastbond
i don't think it will contain all the p9, maybe timetwister
Is that even if MTGO takes care of MTGO, that's only good for a couple of weeks. After that, the influx of cards dries up hard.
So let's see, small group of people buy into a short printed set and then see a large influx of demand later on? That's bad - really bad.
This is coming from a guy who has no intention of ever playing Legacy. There are very few cards I care to have 4x of from Saga. I'm trying to watch your back, Legacy folk. If Saga does poorly, I see online Legacy being *significantly* more expensive than classic - at least in Classic the big bad cards are only 1x.
I won't comment on P9 anymore. I've commented on it enough for 6 years. We'll just have to wait and see.
Wow that is a rough pic to post. Deperate need of a bar of soap and some scissors.
if power isnt in MED4 ill let eveyone here smack me twice!!
Seriously the set cant sell wont sell with unplayables....look what MED1 did. wotc stands to make more from good sets and power online is as good as a set gets
They want every card online and they want revenue
also vintage has been for too long the abandond step child which they need to get some hold of back and online is that step.
Each piece will go for 30 a pop i 2nd market more than enough to drive set sales
30? try 50-60 each i see maybe 2-3 pieces in each new med set for the next three years, that should open up all sorts of streams for them
I don't think there will be 3 more MED's. That would be suicide for the players. The discussion of P9 online has gone round and round and round. Personally, I just think they need to make them mythics so that they still have that aura of specialness. There will be power online. They have said that MTGO is their future. Bringing power online will entice excitement about Vintage which will drive sales thus making them more money. Last time I checked they are a business and business are designed to be profitable.
Would they put in mythic rare Power 9 in ME4?
The dudes at ClassicQuater seem to think so. The editor thinks P9 are certain for MED4. Like others have said, the set is going to be awful (and sell awful) if P9 isn't in there.
The Editor at CQ certainly hopes so - or the set will probably be a huge bust.
Sinkhole and Maze of Ith aren't going to sell as set. And cards only legal in classic aren't going to do the trick either if there isn't any P9 - Legacy will cannibalize that segment without the draw of power.
if we're as far as guessing i think they will split the moxen into two meds
med4 jet, pearl and emerald (People will be happy with moxen) maybe + maze / twister
med5 Sapphire and ruby (saving the best for last) + tmiewalk
Med6 Lotus + sinkhole + fastbond
Sinkhole will have to be in ME4 to fill out Legacy. I hope there aren't 6 Masters Edition sets. There would be nothing worthwhile in them. Dangerlinto did a great analysis of the remaining cards at one point on ClassicQuarter.com. Believe him when he says there's barely enough left to make one good set.
If they save the best for last regarding the moxes, both Sapphire and Jet would be last not Ruby. I doubt they will do it this way though...
My guess for the power 9 was the following:
ME4: five moxen
ME5: Black Lotus, Time Vault, 3 blue cards
Some other cards will be mythic as well, but I think the majority opinion on which cards should be made mythic is wrong. Most people are just using the Vintage restricted list to determine what should be mythic in ME4. But consider Regrowth: you're allowed 4 in Legacy and it nearly made it into M10 as an uncommon (it was just too good with Time Warp.) What if the Library comes off the list or Fork goes back on it? Imagine if they print Lion's Eye Diamond in ME4 for some reason. That's another famous card that is one in Vintage, 4 in Legacy. The Vintage metagame should have no bearing on which cards feel mythic.
Something else to consider is that we have a lot of exclusive, limited-release cards like Balance, Demonic Tutor, etc. Some of us prefer non-foils or the original artwork. And really, it's not right for them to say "We're printing (likely less than) 5,000 copies of digital Balance and that's all!" So at some point they have to put it in a booster pack. As of right now the demand for Balance is more than satisfied and Balance would be a lame inclusion in ME4. But it's the right thing to do. As for the original art Wrath of God, *shrug*. Maybe if it also helps the draft format in some way.
As for Urza's becoming the next Exodus - I plan on doing my part not to let it happen either. If I could buy and crack packs of Exodus for $3.50, I would. Even at $4 it's still not horrible, just not profitable. That's ridiculous. I will own all of my UZ singles before the packs go off sale, one way or another.
Is the only remaining unprinted card that is restricted in Vintage that is unrestricted in Legacy. Otherwise, the vintage restricted list is a good list for mythics.
At any rate, for those who'd like to "split" the remaining power - what exactly are you going to "split" them into? There is NOTHING left to print save restricted cards and the handful of goodies you'll see in MED4.
People seem to forget all those cards are restricted or banned. It be like making M10 with nothing but crap rares from 4th and 5th edition and then saying you can't use more than one Baneslayer Angel. Their options for splitting them are limited to not doing it at all or to make MED5 nothing but a bunch of reprints (plus mythic non-reprints). The latter option is very evil.
Was there a mistake on jace's price? You've put it going from 44 to 36 when it's now now priced at 44 and was priced at 36 last week.
the article was posted friday many price swings can hapen over the weekend