Editorial Section:
Welcome to a very special State of the Program! What makes it special, you ask? Quite simply, I had more fun writing this article than I probably should have due to combining my love of historical perspectives, data crunching and random googling into one (almost) coherent Editorial Section! What I decided to do this week was find some real numbers on the cost to compete impacts of Mythic rares as well as all the efforts that Organized Play on MTGO have had on the way we play MTGO. Sit back, grab an Amp and enjoy!
First and foremost I'll throw down some known assumptions, to keep us all in the same conversation:
Assumption 1) No adjusting for inflation/currency fluctuations.
Assumption 2) No adjusting for increased constructed tournament participation
With those out of the way, let's take a look wayyy back in 2006 when Craig Jones took secondPro Tour Honolulu with a Green/Red/White aggro deck:
Prices are in Event tickets, and I merged the Sideboard and the maindeck and removed the basic lands. To run that deck shortly after it won the Pro tour would take just over three hundred tickets. Which is a pretty healthy chunk of change, to be sure, and a lot of that cost is in the mana base, roughly 50% of the cost of the deck is the mana base! 159 of the 313 tickets were dedicated to the mana alone.
I decided to jump ahead a little while and look at the 2009 Pro tour winning B/W tokens deck
Only slightly more expensive than the winning list from three years before, and again, the mana base makes up close to half of the cost of the deck. Let's fast forward another year, to today's top decklists. First up will be Blue White Control followed by a recent PTQ Winning Jund deck.
Breaking down the last two decks I grabbed a couple different PTQ Winners, a U/W Control deck and a Jund deck. Granted, winning a PTQ is not as high level as winning a Pro Tour itself, but it's a decent indication of powerful decks in the format as a baseline for the winning decks in the format. A quick glance at the averages illustrates a vast decrease in the percentage of value that the mana base uses. The good news is that U/W Control list is now below ten percent of the cost of the deck! The bad news is that the deck is about twice as expensive as previous top tier decklists. I ran the numbers for U/W Control instead of U/W/R Planeswalkers or Mythic/Mythic Conscription, etc but I expect that most of the top decks will hover around the same 500-600 ticket mark right now.
I said before that I didn't take into consideration the amount of people playing constructed, but I would like to touch on that for a little bit right now. If you read the MTGO Message boards, it's pretty safe to believe that V3 is the worst thing WOTC has done to MTGO. It's missing a lot of functionality and the posters there (myself included) call attention to the myriad of missing features from V2.5 to our current system. And oddly enough, I agree with most of the points that are often brought up. But here's the rub, as there always seems to be... the last year of V3 is outperforming the last year of MTGO V2.5 nearly 2:1. Meaning that there are nearly twice as many people on MTGO, and that is about the exact same increase in the tournament room as well. (If you want to verify this, see the end of life V2.5 Chart here, vs the last year of V3, currently not including Rise's Events) Sadly I don't know how much the numbers were skewed between constructed and limited events but my hazy memory is thinking that it was quite a bit more slanted towards the limited events. If anyone has any exact stats between the rooms I'd be ecstatic to get the details for the older time frames.
Regardless of the increase in both supply and demand, we're still looking at a potential increase of almost 100% from a top tier deck from one year ago to this year's models. That increase is almost completely due to Mythic's, which we can see if we compare it to Jund. One of the most played decks in Standard and certainly capable of winning big events (yes, even still). The Jund deck, which runs minimal rares at this point is usually sub-200 Tickets (less than all the previous year's winning decks). I could have used RDW to illustrate this point as well, but either way, the decks that eschew Mythic rares are cheaper than ever whilst the decks that rely on them can be nearly 100% higher than Rare-Heavy decks of yesteryear.
Like I said, I had a great time researching this week's article and seeing the end result of the changes and impacts of Mythics on our day to day lives. The end result is that Mythics are having a very obvious impact on competitive decks, and are also impacting the cost of decks that DON'T rely on them by pushing them lower and lower over time. So the next time you and your friends get into the olde Mythic's are horrible, Mythic's aren't horrible debate keep in mind that deck like Jund and RDW are likely cheaper due to Mythics than they would have been without them. So while they evidently did increase the cost of the top cost decks they also lowered the cost of the bottom cost (but still competitive) decks while doing so. Making the format both more accessible and less accessible at the same time.
Discussion Items:
New sealed format for the CCC? - The fine folks at MTGSalvation illustrate their awesome vigilance once again and have started a discussion about something of interest to many of us... a new sealed format for the Community Cup. Details are obviously sparse right now, but look for more information as it happens!
Rise of the Eldrazi Release event stories:
I always enjoy the tales of Sealed and Draft wins, foibles and crushing defeats; and the ones from Rise of the Eldrazi are certainly no exception!
Card Price Discussions:
CREEEEAAASSHHHHHH!!! That's the sound of Force of Will crashing. Granted, it's "crashing" to a still triple digit plus number, but it is indeed crashing fast and hard. There are some obvious movers outside of Rise this week... like Polymorph. And some other, less obvious ones like Liliana Vess whom I imagine is getting some love due to the "Top of the Library shenanigans of Summoning Trap" interactions.
I also ran two sets of numbers this week. One with Rise of the Eldrazi in the mix and one with them removed since people always seem to want one and not the other I decided to heck with the worrying and to just do them both.
Card Price Graphs:
With Rise of the Eldrazi -
gideon jura chart
vengevine chart
sarkhan the mad chart
kargan dragonlord chart
awakening zone chart
consuming vapors chart
all is dust chart
time warp chart
time warp chart
devastating summons chart
gideon jura chart
awakening zone chart
consuming vapors chart
vengevine chart
sarkhan the mad chart
kargan dragonlord chart
devastating summons chart
all is dust chart
student of warfare chart
training grounds chart
force of will chart
baneslayer angel chart
cast through time chart
hellcarver demon chart
maelstrom pulse chart
recurring insight chart
sphinx_bone wand chart
near_death experience chart
baneful omen chart
repay in kind chart
recurring insight chart
sphinx_bone wand chart
near_death experience chart
baneful omen chart
repay in kind chart
angelheart vial chart
dormant gomazoa chart
pestilence demon chart
disaster radius chart
nomads' assembly chart
And then without:
time warp chart
time warp chart
entomb chart
liliana vess chart
liliana vess chart
polymorph chart
polymorph chart
polymorph chart
eye of ugin chart
goblin guide chart
polymorph chart
polymorph chart
goblin guide chart
polymorph chart
meddling mage chart
telemin performance chart
time warp chart
liliana vess chart
time warp chart
creeping tar pit chart
force of will chart
baneslayer angel chart
maelstrom pulse chart
noble hierarch chart
filigree angel chart
knight of the reliquary chart
master of the wild hunt chart
sphinx of the steel wind chart
bitterblossom chart
sovereigns of lost alara chart
lodestone golem chart
broodmate dragon chart
ethersworn canonist chart
kresh the bloodbraided chart
luminarch ascension chart
force of will chart
filigree angel chart
lich's mirror chart
relentless rats chart
kabira evangel chart
Card Price Tables:
With Eldrazi:
And without Rise:
And that wraps up a stats-studded State of the Program! I hope you all have some amazing release events and crack lots and lots of Gideons!
29 Comments
Once again I feel it's worth commenting that a price with no volume is not a price. (In fact technically speaking, the price of something you can't buy is "infinity".) Therefore, the $4 Rize comparison prices are completely fake and throw things off.
I'm sure that's not intentional. You have them because you gather automatically from MTGOTraders. And Heath puts them in because he needs to get cards in the system in advance of playability. Nevertheless, every time a new set comes out it makes your data invalid the first week.
I too was confused by the fact that somehow the ROE prices had "jumped". When you know that you only have 2 data points, and one of them is arbitrary, "running the numbers" seems like a waste of time that only serves to confuse people when presented alongside your numbers for cards with actual price histories. This would be better presented by providing a text list of starting prices (and naming it as such).
No I caught that, and to prevent new cards crowding off established ones from your "top 10" tables it's a good idea. That doesn't change the fact that some of the data presented is apocryphal.
Again I understand why this happens, but separate tables don't prevent an uninformed reader from thinking "oh no, I missed out on Gideon and it shot up 12x as much!" They didn't, because it wasn't available. You know that and I know that, but the "with Rize" table implies otherwise.
i guess if you want to really stretch it out and not poke holes in it...to start with gideon is only 4 tix a piece sine the only way to get is at the very very very very start from a booster and boosters cost 4?
I’m not sure that the “high priced mythics push down the costs of more common cards” argument holds water. Other factors seem to be at play, like whether a card is a staple, reprint, niche, or what have you. Unless a Mythic card and an uncommon are fighting for the same slot in a decklist, it doesn’t make sense to put them on the same cost curve. It would be like saying that the existence of Champagne makes the price of water go down.
Let’s take a closer look Jund. Like with Burn, it makes sense that a deck made out of power uncommons wouldn’t cost that much. As for the rares in Jund, their general low-cost can be traced to different factors, but the existence of Mythic Rares elsewhere in the environment doesn’t seem to be one of them:
*Rare lands are not what they once were: gone are the days of $10 Rav duals, cards that were known to be staples in every format early on. But now every block has its own cycle of rare lands, and their ubiquity pushes down the price. There’s no reason for the M10 lands to reach $10 since we know we’ll just have another cycle (or the same cycle) in that year’s Block and another in M11. Modern rare lands are also arguably nerfed from the Rav duals. And since there’s no cycle of Mythic staple lands, there’s no way for their (hypothetical) high price to affect the price of rare lands.
*Maelstrom Pulse, at rare, is $20. That’s expensive. There’s no analogous mythic to push its price down.
*Siege-Gang has been reprinted several times, which explains why it is under $5. It has no Mythic analogue, no mythic card you’d play in its stead, so no cost pushing is going on. The sideboard rares aren’t played in other decks AND there’s no Mythic analogue, so they’re cheap.
*The Mythic Chandra is the crux of the argument for me. Chandra is cheap because demand is low and it’s been preprinted once. To me the existence of relatively inexpensive Mythics says supply/demand curves exist for individual cards, but not for entire rarities as a whole.
But really, compare the Craig Jones deck (listed first) to Jund: the Jones Deck has 40 rares (!) versus Jund’s 25 (counting Mythic Chandra). Seems like the existence of Mythics in other decks isn’t pushing down the price on Jund when compared to Jones’s deck, it’s the fact that it plays almost half as many rares. It makes sense to compare the prices individual cards of comparable utility/popularity/supply to determine if Mythics are really affecting their price.
But even when we do that it doesn’t seem to prove the “Invisible Hand of Baneslayer Angel” hypothesis. What about Path to Exile and Bloodbraid Elf? They’re both worth at least twice what the most expensive uncommons of the Pre-Mythics decks cost. Again, my argument is that the costs are independent of the existence of Mythics, but even if we grant your premise that Mythics affect the price of other cards, PtE and Bloodbraid would indicate that prices are being pushed UP, not down.
I dont know if bloodbraid elf and PtE are examples of prices being pushed. BBE sees play in multiple decks and in multiple formats. Far more than any individual mythic sees play except maybe jace the mindsculptor. PtE is the same way. If im not mistaken there have periodically been that one uncommon that becomes a multi-dollar card. Magma Jet did at one point, so did Lightning Helix i believe. and I am pretty sure watchwolf did as well. And those were all from a pre-mythic era.
Mythics rares push the price of rares down because of redemption. Because of Mythic rares, fewer sets are redeemed, a larger percentage of rares stay on the online market.
If you want concrete examples of this, look at the rare lands before Mythics compared to the rare lands after Mythics. I don't think this effects the price of commons and uncommons that much as Bloodbraid Elf and Path to Exile demonstrate.
The other factor is that a lot more limited players are playing now than before, which means a larger supply of cards in the system. Of course there are more constructed players now too, so demand is also up and I'm not sure how it stacks up to the increased supply of cards.
Are there figures out there on how many sets are actually redeemed?
As far as I know WotC doesn't publish the official numbers. However there is significant evidence to show that redemption is a significant factor in terms of price. That evidence is secondary, and therefore doesn't prove anything. However most of the evidence indicates that there is a relationship between redemption and card price.
1. A promo mythic rare is usually cheaper than the non-promo version of the same card.
2. WotC publishes when they run out of Magic Online sets for redemption and I've heard that the price of cards drift a bit when this happens.
3. Before Mythics, drafters and sealed deck players used to be able to sell bulk bad rares to bots for nontrivial prices such as 3 for 1 ticket and 6 for 1 ticket and there were very few rares that bots wouldn't touch. That is no longer true for rares, but even terrible mythics don't drop below $0.50.
4. Ebay has at least some evidence of players selling Magic Online redeemed sets. However this misses the players who redeem sets to play in paper events, sell to stores, or just keep them.
5. I haven't checked this, but another test you could do is see how prices are effected when a set becomes no longer redeamable.
If redemption ends close to a rotation I’d imagine the results would be meaningless. For useful data we’d need to see redemption end while a card still has significant time left in Standard.
What would you guess to be the total number redemptions from a typical set? Hundreds? Thousands?
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"If you read the MTGO Message boards, it's pretty safe to believe that V3 is the worst thing WOTC has done to MTGO. It's missing a lot of functionality and the posters there (myself included) call attention to the myriad of missing features from V2.5 to our current system."
>>
It's amazing how quickly people forget how unstable the previous versions of Magic Online were. Yes, V3 is missing a lot of features that the older versions had, but the older versions were very unstable. You could almost count on them crashing whenever a new set was released because the older versions couldn't handle to increased player load. I'd much rather have the much more stable V3 or v2.5 any day.
As for the whole Mythic debate, well, it was a way to increase the value of certain cards in a set and create a "lottery" type effect where anybody regardless of skill could open a card that is worth at least a couple of free events. It gives a big incentive to new players, even if most of us old timers grumble and complain about it. I think WotC did a reaonable job with mythics in the Alara block, however they have noticeably gotten more greedy with which cards become Mythic rares in Zendikar block. Vengevine and Lotus Cobra are fine examples of cards that flavorwise don't need to be Mythic except for the fact that they are really good cards. Jace TMS is a rather sad case because it basically means you can't play an entire color competively without spending $200 on him.
Yeah I remember the old days of MTGO it was sometimes impossible to get in if a certain number of players was reached. Also crashes were so bad that the Mothership's online/offline page was bookmarked for me, so that I could see if it was my isp keeping me off or the servers. Often more than not it was the servers.
"I’m not sure that the “high priced mythics push down the costs of more common cards” argument holds water."
- Take this exact statement into the auction room and ask the people there what they think. You will hear the comment often times, "If it ain't mythic, it probaly isn't worth much."
- Of course it holds water, people are spending more money buying the higher priced mythics, therefore dealers lower rates of less sought after cards to keep sales flowing.
"Maelstrom Pulse, at rare, is $20. That’s expensive. There’s no analogous mythic to push its price down."
- Doesn't this counteract your point? Of course there isn't a mythic to lower the price, if there were, then the mythic would be like $40 and this would be much lower.
Maybe I'm misreading your post, but how can prices not be affected by high priced Mythics. Thats like saying Legacy isn't skewed due to the price of Force of Will.
Hypothetical anecdotal evidence from a chat room versus actual market prices from a major dealer – I think we’re better off sticking with the latter.
“Of course it holds water, people are spending more money buying the higher priced mythics, therefore dealers lower rates of less sought after cards to keep sales flowing.”
That’s not how supply and demand work. Remember that sellers do not set prices, the market does. If I offer an Ornithopter for 100 tix, that doesn’t mean it’s worth 100. I’m not a dealer myself, but I’m 99% sure that Pete doesn’t check the price of Baneslayer every morning and take a penny off Lightning Bolt if it goes up. Card value is determined individually based on supply and demand. Also, look to the decks Hamtastic posted for evidence of what you’re saying not happening.
“Doesn't this counteract your point? Of course there isn't a mythic to lower the price, if there were, then the mythic would be like $40 and this would be much lower.”
Remember that I’m not arguing that Mythics push the prices of other cards up, but that there’s no relationship between the two. They’re decoupled.
i think your index is out of date as all of ROE has crashed....hard
anything on lifetime points yet?
It gets old seeing people whine so much about mythics and prices. The fact is there are four ungoldy expensive cards (+30.00) and those happen to be mythics. Three of them are planeswalkers. Are these cards expensive because they are mythic? No, they are expensive because they are crazy good and every one wants to play a deck with all four.
The average MTGO Traders price of all other mythics is $4.10 and this includes the ones inflated by ROE being newly released (I'm looking at you Vengevine).
yes the fact that mythics are harder to get than rares as nothing to do with the obsceneness in price. Because 50-70 dollar cards is the norm for standard....mythic or otherwise, thanks for reminding us
being mythic and therefore more rare certainly doesnt help the price...
I'm by no means trying to say less supply of mythics doesn't impact the price of the big four. But it is far overshadowed by the DEMAND for those cards.
Its pretty simple really. If you don't want to pay $70 for Jace then don't. I haven't and never will.
The problem with using a historical example is that not only is there sampling bias, but also the rarity change was not done independently vs a control group. (Sets got smaller among other changes.) Instead, let me try an ex-ante analysis. ("Ex-ante", for the curious, means reasoning a theory based purely on logic, which can afterward be tested in practice. As opposed to a "ex-post", where you see what happened and then create a theory why.) Warning in advance: it's long.
Consider a dealer like MTGOTraders who rips packs to provide singles. The value of the singles must be >= the value of the packs. Must be, otherwise they couldn't do it. But not infinitely greater, because competition pushes the prices down. (And anyone could open packs themselves, so the competition is broad.) The result is that in order for this to work, every 120 packs must produce at least 480 tickets worth of singles. We'll say it's worth $N, with N > 480 but as low as possible due to market forces.
120 packs on average yield 1 of each Mythic, 2 of each rare, 6 of each uncommon, 12 of each common, and 6 of each basic land. So for any set, the prices of those singles must add up to N. That means when any one card gains in value, it permits downward movement on the rest. Do the others have to move down? Strictly speaking no, but remember competition pushes N down toward 480. So practically speaking it does, yes.
Let's consider some extreme cases here as a hypothetical to watch how it works. Suppose there was only 1 good card in the set, and everything else is universally acknoweldged as worthless. If that 1 card is a Mythic, it must be worth N. If it's rare, it must be worth N/2. N/6 for an uncommon, and N/12 for a common. There more there are, the less each one must cost.
We'll expand that to two good cards, both equally good and the same rarity. And we'll further say they are non-substitutes, and usable together. (That part will matter in a moment.) Two good Mythics are N/2 each. Good rares N/4. Uncommons N/12, commons N/24. Pretty straightforward - more examples among a rarity is analogous to moving to a lower rarity.
Again let me emphasize that in this hypothetical example, all other cards in the set are valueless. AKA free. If Mythics are the only value then rares, uncommons, and commons are free. If commons are the only value then Mythics are free. (Because they're trash.) So it's not strictly a given which rarity is subsidizing the others.
Now let's mix rarities - a mythic and a rare - but otherwise keep the same conditions. So again we'll say they are equally desireable. But that's a problem, because they can not exist in equal quantities! It's not possible, because the supply is coupled in a fixed ratio. The instinct is to say N/2 for the mythic and N/4 for the rare, so that 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/4 = 100%. But buyers don't want two rares with their one mythic. They want one rare with their one mythic. That leads to 1/2 + 1/4 + unsold = 3/4 N which is not sufficient to justify being a seller.
So, the price of the rares must come down until the price alone makes them more desireable. And as a result, the price of the Mythic must go up to maintain N. Now how much price move is necessary varies by card; I can't say ex-ante. But I can say this: suppose the two cards are two halves of a BFM, one mythic and one rare, and worthless without the other half. The only way that system reaches equilibrium is if the rare is free and the mythic price = $N. (A half BFM that will never have it's other half being itself worthless.) And though the BFM case is an extreme example, it's just an exaggeration of the truth. Competitive players want 4x everything, not 4x some and 12x others, so the BFM principle is in effect.
Although harder to visualize, the reverse is true if the rare is somehow 3x as desireable as the mythic. Now the rare is the limiting factor and the mythic is the byproduct. Because there's nothing we can do to make the supply ratio fit demand, price must be used to make demand fit supply.
So do Mythics make rares cheaper? Yes they do, but only if we really want the mythics and are settling for the rares. In the case of the Bloodbraid Elf, I'd say it's the other way around: BBE at his 4.5 tix has enabled Thraximundar to be cheaper. And the fact that Maelstrom Pulse didn't pull a Tarmogoyf is based not on Mythics, which were undesirable, but on valuable uncommons and the fact that sets are smaller.
I was much happier when 50% of the cost of the deck was in the mana base, as per Hamtastic's first examples.
Firstly, there was less demand for rare lands as casual players didn't need them as much. With chase mythics, they are awesome, and everyone knows they're awesome, so hold on to them for dear life.
Secondly, even as a tournament player, you could substitute for basic lands/inferior versions without losing much win %, unlike mythics Jace/Elspeth/Gideon etc, where they are so powerful your deck will lose much power or even be unplayable without them.
Thirdly, chase mythics are impossible to trade up for, as they cost so much more than rares. When the fetches/day of judgement cost ~4 tix and Jace costs >70 tix how do you trade for that without a chase mythic of your own?
Something that people tend to forget when talking about Mythics, is that they're not any harder to pull from packs than Stuffy Doll or Hallowed Fountain were. New Mythics and old rares are 2-3 (2 and-a-fraction) per case on average. That's not a lot!
The real problem with mythics is how far down they pushed the value of every other rare. Basically, what we have now is a rarity system that is kind of like "R / U1 / U3 / C". The cards you see with a gold expansion symbol aren't really rares anymore.
In a healthy set the value of the set is more evenly distributed across the chase cards in that set.
TSP Example (bear with me)
Magus of the Scroll - $10
Vesuvan Shapeshifter - $8
Stuffy Doll - $6
Ancestral Vision - $6
Lotus Bloom - $5
Bogardan Hellkite - $5
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir - $5
Dralnu, Lich Lord - $4
Living End - $4
Vesuva - $3
Ten or so other cards - $1
WWK Example
Jace, the Mind Sculptor - $70+
Abyssal Persecutor - $6
Celestial Colonnade - $4
Raging Ravine - $4
Avenger of Zendikar - $4
nothing else is worth snot
Now that the normal rares are mere U1s, and they are necessarily abandoned by the redemption process, they're not holding up to the mythic prices. There's just too few of them in a small set, and thus too many of them in circulation.
I dont get it...every rare you listed was $10 or under...
the playable chase mythics still push $50-$70+...
I dont get the comparison at all
I am not understanding how you arrived at the figures you are using. Are they just samples so that you can make some kind of point? If not they are currently erroneous.
well they would have to be currently erroneous, he is using the prices from when the cards were in standard, though whether or not those are even accurate i am unsure
Yes I meant I don't think those prices were ever accurate. Also if it is a sample it is a strange one.
the magus and the shapeshifter are right and I think teferi is too. I remember playing in paper back then. I dont remember the rest only because they werent in decks i had RDW and U/G SHifter
I remember getting those cards for 1/4th the prices listed here and didn't have to look hard. So maybe they spiked at those prices but they didn't stay there long. Granted I missed the first few months of the set.
Oh and I ran shifterhermit as a casual deck in standard back then. Strangely standard was actually fun.
i bought mine right at the start of the PTQ season which just so happened to be TSP Block Constructed which did account for some of the price