Editorial Section:
I'll start off by paraphrasing one of the most profound lines I can recall every reading in a Magic article: "Eventually all of my Magic friends just became 'friends'". I tried to find the original source, but came up empty handed. Highly likely it was from a www.wizards.com article or a www.starcitygames.com article. Recently this quote came flooding back to me as numerous worlds collided around me. Hopefully many of you are aware of the Seinfeld theory of "Relationship George" and "Independent George" put forth by George and Kramer. If not, that's a shame and I'll summarize for you:
KRAMER: Jerry, don't you see? This world here, this is George's sanctuary.
If Susan comes into contact with this world, his worlds collide. You know what happens then?
(Kramer raises his hands into the air and slowly brings them together in an explosion)
KRAMER: Ka shha shha shha Pkooo (exploding sound)
What I'm about to talk about isn't as simple as balancing Magic and Relationships, no, that's covered territory at this point. What I intend to cover today is far broader than that... I'm going to talk about essentially balancing worlds. Each of us has many different worlds we live in (or Planes, if we stick to Magic parlance, I guess). As we grow older and have more responsibilities we tend to become involved in more and more worlds. Some of our personal traits transfer, but many are unique to each world. In the above scenario with George, we have a man that acts one way with his spouse and another way with his friends, and if the worlds overlap one of these personalities will have to subvert to the other. It's a fascinating truth about many of us, but like most sitcom plots it's watered down to assist mass understanding. Just a quick rundown of my worlds shows me: Erik->husband, Erik->father; Erik->office rockstar; hamtastic->MTGO Writer; hamtastic->MTGO player; hamtastic-SVCL And surely, each world has a different 'me' living in it. Work Erik is infinitely more sarcastic and forceful than writer hamtastic and husband/father Erik is far more nurturing than office Erik and so on. But what happens when worlds collide? Is there a balance? Well we ask Oliver from my office who is probably reading this right now. Using his mastery of Google, he's discovered that the snarky co-worker Erik is an Epic Nerd hamtastic(Hi Oliver! *waves*). I will admit to being extremely flattered that I matter enough to Oliver that he felt compelled to look up my internet world, I must be very important to him to go through all that trouble.
But how do I balance these newly bridged worlds? Honest answer: I don't know yet as it hasn't really come up. My evenings are filled with family communication, MTGO Writing, playing, reading, preparing, etc. While working and my days are filled with programming, meetings, etc. There's not really much overlap from one to the other at this point. The less and less anonymous I have become (there was a time when no one knew 'hamtastic' from any other player, after all) the more and more overlap I've experienced. I suspect that this is the case for more and more online gamers as more and more pieces of our digital selves find their way into mainstream outlets like google, twitter, facebook, etc. Googling either of my persona's (Erik or hamtastic) gets you to me, I now even beat out an Olympic Gold Medal Cyclist. But to be fair, he's dead so he's not keeping up with my content production levels very well. For all intents and purposes, I have no anonymity anymore... and I think I'm fine with that. It took me a while to come to grips with that though. At first I felt as if I had no more worlds to divide... everything in every world overlapped. I had to be "Relationship George" 24x7 lest the inhabitants of one world become jaded by my actions in another.
But that's just it. I am who I am, regardless of the world it happens in. To quote "my magic friends just became my 'friends'". I consider Sebastian/Runeliger, AJ/AJ, Oliver/<not applicable>, Joshua/JXClaytor, and all I work with and game with and chat with and play with; each and every one of them, to be friends. As my internet life and real life personas merge closer and closer there's less and less reason to worry about dividing them by medium. I just need to be sure to balance the worlds, and live in one at a time as much as possible. Focus on work at work, don't neglect the family for fun or work, and so on. I can't be afraid to accept the friends in one aspect of my life into another. Regardless of their world of origin.
If some of this doesn't apply to you yet it certainly could eventually. If and when that does it would behoove you to be prepared to figure out which George you want in control of the situation when the time comes.
Discussion items:
The Millibot Saga:
I'm calling it a saga at this point because the story keeps morphing, moving and getting more interesting. The initial issue was a 'report of malware' which got the bot chain shut down for investigation. After this, it was stated that the bot chain is essentially a reverse engineered client that connects to the MTGO Servers without using the 'regular' client.
Lag!!
So. Much. Lag. Things seem to have gotten better after this last down time on the 27th of October, however before that went into place it was pretty painful. We had numerous impacted events as well as multiple issues that forced the client into 'No Pay Mode' to let things the servers catch up.
Account names allowing "_" again:
It appears that the underscore character is once again an allowed character for creating an account name. Here's to you Mr. ______!
Price Discussions:
Baneslayer Angel!!!! I hope you bought them long ago because they are bonkers right now. Thanks to Brian Kibler's Extended deck in PT Austin coupled with high demand Standard constructed prices and redemption and less M10 on the drafts... and you get, well, this I guess. I'm fairly certain that she is now the single most expensive Standard legal card ever on MTGO. Some of this is hype buying after PT: Austin, but a lot of it is the real deal. I don't see her coming down until the rotation, assuming she doesn't get reprinted in M2011.
Dark Depths was up, then down, and is now back up since it really does have some power in Extended. It's a deck that I would have to say is 'in progress' as far as being a finished product, but once the right balance of threat, tutor, disruption I suspect it will be a force in Extended this season.
Garruk has improved a lot with Jund decks being the deck du jour and as such his price has regained a lot. Even the old 'normal rare' versions regained a lot of value.
Eldrazi and Vampire Nocturnus are seeing quite a bit of play in Vampire decks. Turns out that sacrificing a bloodghast to pay for an Eldrazi is an acceptable price for the effect.
I will cover the Vanguard avatars for one more week, after that, they're toast unless you want them to stay in the price crunching. Personally I'm okay with them going away and I'm okay with them staying, but I have the gut feeling that they are not going to be missed from the charts.
The graphs are very interesting as well. We still fell a bit from last week, however, the decrease was very minor and I suspect we'll start to see recovery in the next chart in Standard as we move back into our normal patterns of play as the release events wrap up.
Lastly, with the graphs, we have the draft chart coming back this week and it has Zen, Zen, Zen on par with Tempest/Stronghold (for now) and also shows that M10 has now surpassed MED3 in value on the back of a much beloved and bemoaned Baneslayer Angel.
Card Price Charts:
Card Price Graphs:
baneslayer angel chart
garruk wildspeaker chart
garruk wildspeaker chart
dark depths chart
vampire nocturnus chart
eldrazi monument chart
jace beleren chart
warren instigator chart
jace beleren chart
master of the wild hunt chart
earthquake chart
madrush cyclops chart
twincast chart
eldrazi monument chart
hell's thunder chart
garruk wildspeaker chart
garruk wildspeaker chart
warren instigator chart
rampaging baloths chart
ball lightning chart
avatar _ serra angel (alt.) chart
verdant catacombs chart
arid mesa chart
avatar _ platinum angel chart
day of judgment chart
avatar _ tradewind rider chart
marsh flats chart
bloodghast chart
avatar _ etched oracle chart
misty rainforest chart
emeria angel chart
oracle of mul daya chart
archive trap chart
devout lightcaster chart
pyromancer ascension chart
bloodchief ascension chart
bloodghast chart
malakir bloodwitch chart
goblin guide chart
graven cairns chart
Tournament Stuff:
Zendikar, top to bottom, is the tournament format for the week. The turnout for Zendikar has been immense (as we noticed with the server issues). Things appear to be leveling off, which is what's allowing the Mythics and some chase cards to regain some value that they lost in week one. I'll take a moment to mention a new tournament format that hasn't really gotten much press yet with the Zendikar release:
Zendikar Block Constructed
You read that right... block constructed during the events! I can understand that during the first week these would be unpopular due to card prices, however, right now they have extremely high EV. 33 players, eight tickets each, prizes to the top 16 and the top 8 get invited to the champs tournament. Assuming you wind up in the top 49% of players you'll get 4 packs for eight tickets, a pretty fair deal, all things considered. So dust off those Ob, Nixilii and Cobrii and get some cheap packs! And, for those who will complain about prices... Zen prices are probably the lowest they'll be ever for the high end Mythics like Cobra and Nixilis. Just putting that out there...
Conclusion:
I doubt that I'll have a full SotP out next week with the frivolity that is the Community Cup, but I will have at least some prices crunched into charts and updates from the Community Cup as I can swing them. Wish us luck! I'd love to score everyone a free Momir Vig avatar and kick off a crazy tournament! Until then, Hello and Good Luck.
32 Comments
I just read 21 pages of forum posts and I have 0 idea of what is going on with millibot.
Short story is this: all the Millibot accounts were locked while WotC investigated a claim that Millibot stole someone's cards (as is usual in such circumstances). This of course launched complaints about how easy it is to shut a bot down without any evidence (at least temporarily). Late in the thread came the realization that Millibot does not run the MO client at all, but rather interacts with the server directly, which of course would violate the ToS in fact, if not in intent.
Excellent synopsis bubba, spot on.
It's been a strangely winding story so far. I don't know where it will end, but where ever it lands will be supremely important to the future of MTGO.
I always figured Millibot was circumventing the client. They did impossible things at impossible speeds. But I considered it a good thing. Also the revelation strikes me as "the fruit of a poisonous tree" although that wouldn't strictly apply in this private matter.
Don't forget the conspiracy theory portion.
The complaint and shutdown happened the night before the big Zendikar release online, so it was an evil competitor that did it! Probably Microsoft or the Freemasons.
Actually let me clear up alot, Millibot is locked right now do to a report of malware. Second there was no reverse enginering. He simply just wrote his own client. All the client checks for is version. Not authenticate. Also now to catch everyone up to speed AF (Aaron Forsyth) called for us to make mods for MTGO. Which easly could be intrupted that gave milli the right todo this. Now I would be more concerned as to why was there a big loop were everything trade wise was be able to get along with chat by anouther client not WoTC. Also the point of the Reverse Engineering thing not hard to get the IP of were it connects. If all it takes is a user name and password to log into the server. And there is enough software to find the IP address of were your computer connects. Anouther thing is yes the report came right before the release of zendikar. I wont say that traders had a hand in it and dont think I did as they are not in direct compition for what he did. I would reather point at the old CBS "MLbot" as a more then likely suspect.
Allow me to clear up some more, if you will....
Forsythe's "MODS" comments has been horribly, horribly, horribly taken out of context. But I will gladly provide it.
John Loucks asked for data access in a channelfireball article.
AaFo puts out a Call to Mods:
http://twitter.com/mtgaaron/status/3712350129
I, and others, call a "lolwhut?" on AaFo.
AaFo clarifies:
http://twitter.com/mtgaaron/status/3716262512
That last one is often ignored by people defending millibot's actions.
Computer Game companies have long frowned upon the practice of using 3rd party macroes or automations to connect directly to parts of a game or game server. I can't believe anyone would assume WoTC would ever feel differently about that. Perhaps Aaron shouldn't have said what he said via tweet without being abundantly clear that it didn't mean "go make a direct to server interface bypassing the client" but that doesn't excuse those responsible for doing it. As often is the case though people who believe in a particular idea whether it is logical or not, rational or not find ways to make that idea seem rational and logical. So of course ignoring the second post makes more sense than acknowledging it.
Since I can make mods and 3rd party applications. And we know bots are legal. Hmmm how about I write one that uses heck wizards own interface reads pixels. Makes all the correct plays according to game state. Then I release this computer that plays almost a error free game of magic according to a agorythm with magic. Now sinces its a mod and a 3rd party application its 100% legit then correct? Now I take this give it the best deck in a given format and send it into daily and premier events. Would that make it correct? And the fact your using AF second comment to defend his first comment. Doesnt make sense cause it ends with a? Now also brings anouther point wizards if they do take down millibots. What if he open sources the code. Now you have everyone with easy access to that code and can rinse repeat. Of course at a risk. But hmm? Take down the color and website link ablitiy then prove its that code granted yes it runs faster but still its the proof its that client.
Actually Im quite comfortable in stating that I doubt WOTC ever wants people connecting directly with its servers without using the client. In fact I am certain they have now taken steps or are in the process of taking steps to prevent this from happening again. Also I expect that the kind of thing you are talking about is not only implausible but impossible using the WOTC client. All of this is common sense and has nothing at all to do with the 2nd Tweet by AF except that it shows the underlying logic behind NOT assuming as the perpetrators did. It is very convenient to dismiss the logic in favor of what is desired. But that doesn't change reality.
Im talking about that bot being perfectly writing using the current client and its very probable todo all it takes is reading pixals its not diffrent then a chess game with a A.I and using numbers. But remember you dealing with people that create games that you play on your playstation Xbox etc that also play MTG and maybe MTGO and would be very easy to make a AI that can read the game state constantly by afew pixels on each card. And knows the correct play from what it has. So using the interface has nothing todo with it just like how current bots do now. It reads the pixels of stuff to know what to grab and only afew.
I'm sorry, but that is just nonsense. Yes it is possible to create a bot that plays the game for you. No I don't think it is possible to write an AI (artificial intelligence) that makes the correct plays all the time or even nearly all the time. AI is very difficult to get heuristically accurate for a game like Magic where the possible moves can run into the thousands. That's a heck of a lot of branches. Yes some of that can be grouped into like-cases but I really dislike the notion that people would actually believe this possible. Like chess Magic also has look ahead as a skill factor.
The more you play in the moment (simplest AI decision making does this) the harder it is to set up the next draws (ie: playing for a top deck, etc) With chess programs this takes a fairly large amount of time (though with faster cores less than most good players take) to run through all the possible "good" moves in all possible variations and sub-variations. And that doesn't take into account the human factor which may evade a purely logical approach to the game. Magic is infinitely more complex though the decisions themselves may be just as minute.
But I challenge you to produce such a bot and show it off publicly. I am certain if you manage such a feat there will be job offers from all sorts of places.
But its already been done to play magic at a AI level.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_The_Gathering_%28MicroProse%29
Now just update rules update the AI. Make it run alittle diffrent now into a bot. Hmmm.... Why even have a look ahead factor.. Granted yes its part of it but if its doing statisticly the best play at during each phase of each turn. Hmmm... I will admit im no programmer nore did I ever claim to be one. Matter of fact im a accountant. But the fact that you can attach a AI to the game of magic already has been proven you can do.
I don't think it would be that hard to write a Magic AI. It's a hard problem, but so is chess... Approach it logically and you can probably come up with a game-playing robot pretty easily.
Its a hard problem but its easy? Your choice I guess. Prove it?
Shandalar is a fun game (Who doesn't like random stuff?). And the Microprose "AI" is playable but hardly worth talking about in a competitive sense. Anyone who has played magic for more than a week can beat it. Well maybe not a week but two at the very most. You can also get a million monkeys in a room with a million typewriters...well no that would be chaos but you get the point. We are talking about a real decision making AI capable of countering but choosing to not do so in order to catch the card you held back to play the bait instead. In otherwords actually making it intelligent. The way they wrote the Shandalar AI is to make the decisions random. That's why the game does crazy things like bolt its own guys or give your guys giant growths etc. This makes an interesting scenario but isn't truly playing the game.
The thing that bothers me about this kind of speculation is that it is day dreaming. I have nothing against that. In fact the best creations often start as day dreams but to bring them into the light you need to be able to solidify them beyond the simple generalizations into the nitty gritty details of problem solving. Yes it can be done because someone thought of it. But the likelihood of someone actually doing it is low for now. Particularly without a pay incentive.
Ok yes it can be done with some time to write it. But since it would be a 3rd party software simple thing. Would it make it correct?
The answer is no. But also would that make anything else correct that would give you in in area of MTGO correct in the same point?
I believe it would be a CoC violation to use a bot to play a game of magic online without WotC consent.
Now that your percentages are proper, let's wage another battle shall we?
I'm talking about those card repeat due to multiple version of the card existing. Garruk / Garruk? Jace / Jace? Come on! If they reprint counterspell in Worldwake, what would it be? Counterspell / Counterspell / Counterspell / Counterspell? Eitehr use the average, the top, or list them together by separating each version with a slash.
We want more info on more cards, not the same card multiple times.
Actually, 'same card multiple times' can be useful for those of us who just want a playset. It can be quite surprising as to which version is cheaper sometimes.
I was just wondering if anyone found the video of the finals for MTGO Live Series from Austin?
Downtime 2 weeks ago brought back lots and lots of little annoying bugs that where fixed a couple of months ago. These little bugs have risen from their tombs and are back to haunt us once more. Very disappointing if you ask me!
For instance:
- LAG! Lag! LaG! lAg! lag......you know it, I know it, it's everywhere!
- Bugs in 'collection' makes it impossible to use 'make all cards tradable' or when it does work not all cards are set tradable properly. Even more annoying is the fact that after a draft the cards you drafted are appointed to your account but you cannot set them tradable (not even manually). You first have to restart and hope it works properly.
- Drawing cards after a match is through used to work great and fluently. Since a week or two it doesn't work fluently anymore. You can press all you want but usually it takes about 3/4 clicks to draw 1 card.
- Starting a draft I get an error message 1 out of 5 times.
Most annoying (i think) are the collection-bugs. I just set 'all cards untradable' just to find out it won't let me set 'all tradable' again. Have to set tradable 20.000+ cards? Yeah right! Thanks Wizards for taking us back in time.
"If some of this doesn't apply to you yet it certainly could eventually. If and when that does it would behoove you to be prepared to figure out which George you want in control of the situation when the time comes."
It's amazing how the way you spend your time changes after graduating from college, getting married, and having kids. In college I never really had to think about balancing my time between worlds. I had a relative abundance of time. Now most of my time seems to be spent on keeping my family happy. Not that it's a bad thing. It's just a change I couldn't imagine 6-8 years ago.
One suggesting, I'd like to see the EV for all draft sets currently draftable on MTGO. I'm less interested in seeing the charts of the past as seeing the current snapshot of sets like LLM, SSE, whatever else is Nix Tix for the week. It would help determine if it would be better to play the Nix Tix queue or one of the current ones. Thanks!
Love the article and good luck in the Comunity Event. Win me a Mormir :).
sorry again for the offtopic but...
Wheres the paupers articles?
we are expecting the new ideas and decks!
tnx
It was not a very good week for pauper submissions, therefore there were 0 posted
Expect something from me on the new Pauper scene sometime soon. Both of the Pauper events I participate in are off for the week, but next week I should have some new thoughts to share on the new decks that appear to be contenders, at least in Standard Pauper.
Once I finally looked for myself, the EV on Zendikar Constructed is not as bad as I'd been led to believe, although it decreases for those who are already qualified. Are they firing? I'd hate to acquire the cards, build a deck, and then not have anything happen.
i love the weekly, but i hate the pit of knowing i sold too early! eesh
>I don't see her coming down until the rotation, assuming she doesn't get reprinted in M2011.
Actually on twitter some time ago AF has already confirmed her to be in M2011.
I mean no disrespect to Forsythe when I say the following;
I don't trust statements about future sets until I see the cards.
In fact, I believe it was AaFo who said "green shouldn't get Birds of paradise" only to dee them come back with the next core set.
Also, IIRC, his comment wasn't that they were for sure in M11, but that he very much wanted her to be in M11, and was pushing for it.
But I'm cynical at times, or so I'm told... ;)
I think M11 is already locked at this point.
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