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By: hamtastic, Erik Friborg
Oct 09 2009 1:41am
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Editorial Section:
It never fails.  Every couple of months something earth-shattering, mind-melting and perception-altering happens to the Magic community, the MTGO community, or entwined.  And each and every time that it happens chaos, anger and teeth-gnashing closely follows.  I personally believe that the best time to prepare for something is when it's important but not urgent.   And that's kind of where we are right now.  There are a lot of "really cool" things regarding Magic right now, namely the Zendikar "Hidden Treasures" at the Paper Zendikar pre-releases.  However it's only a matter of time until something unpleasant happens.  Which means that to adequately prepare for the next unpleasant thing it makes sense to get in the proper mindset right now.  A general tip: something will change in Magic/MTGO and it may infuriate you. Sooner or later it will happen eventually.  Heck, it's even happened to me.  A lot.  I know people tend to think that I'm an unwavering defender of all that's WotC or something.  The simple truth is that I generally fast track through these seven steps each time something "end is nigh" happens.  But believe me when I say that there are plenty of moments of anger based on WotC's decisions in my past.

For those unaware of the "7 Steps of Loss", here they are in a nutshell:
1. SHOCK & DENIAL
2. PAIN & GUILT
3. ANGER & BARGAINING
4. DEPRESSION, REFLECTION, LONELINESS

5. THE UPWARD TURN
6. RECONSTRUCTION & WORKING THROUGH
7. ACCEPTANCE & HOPE

And that's all well and good of course, but what does that mean to us, the MTG players, and why am I talking about it now?

Quite simply because it is painfully obvious that not enough people know, understand and respect the varying levels of speed this process needs.  Myself included.  I see it far too often on message boards around the internet.  Something bad happens.  And that something rightfully angers some segment of the community.  Sometimes this segment is large, sometimes it is very small, but regardless of the size of the group there are people that are impacted.  Generally these people will have a perspective that differs from yours in very large ways.  This generally is the start of the problem we see next.  If it doesn't impact you, you tell them to suck it up since they're a small subset, or a whiner-kins, or whatever.  Or slightly better, you tell them that it's a valid opinion but it doesn't matter, because hey, it's not going to kill magic, so they should suck it up.  Or even better, but still bad, is that you too were angry about it, but now you're not and they shouldn't be either.

None of those approaches is helpful.  At all.  You may think you're being helpful by trying to guide them to where you are.  You may be trying to help them with all your heart... but that's the problem.  If they're in any step below number five you are not actually helping... in fact, you're just making things worse.  This is something I routinely fail at acknowledging and try to 'help' people get over their anger or frustrations.  Sadly, that's almost never what they need.  Especially in step four, but it applies to every step before five.  Until they themselves reach step five, any attempt at guiding them, reasoning with them, "logic'ing" them, etc is only going to make them more deeply entrenched in whichever step they're currently in.  It is only by their own means that they are able to make it through the steps.  Neither you nor I can make them get over their feelings.  No matter how stupid or unreasonable they seem to us at the time.  The point isn't what WE think or feel, it's only about what THEY think and feel.

But that's only the nutshell explanation... let's dig into them and see some examples.  I'll be grabbing examples from M10's rules changes and other events that I've seen applicable reactions from in the past.

1: Shock and Denial
Also known as "No way, this can't be happening".  There are very few posts that are made at this stage, as denial usually doesn't last long on the internet.  Either it's true or false and people move into the next two steps quite quickly.  Of course, not everyone does this.  These folks typically get mocked for their disbelief since the vast majority of posters will have already moved on to step's three or four.
The M10 changes came directly from WotC, but feel free to replace it with other rumor threads on MTGSalvation as they happen.

2: Pain and Guilt
If any step doesn't translate, it's this one.  Probably because MTG isn't a living being there's very little 'guilt' that something is gone.  It's not like I regret not spending a summer day frolicking with "Damage on the Stack", or anything.  There is often pain though... and this pain can be rekindled later.  Like at my paper pre-release for Zendikar.  I played the new 2/1 Looter guy who as it turns out is significantly weaker without damage on the stack.  Every time I wanted to block, stack and activate I felt a pang of pain poke into my guy.

For example:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=3951668&postcount=8

3: Anger and Bargaining
This we see a lot on the internet.  Anger is way easier to express than happiness, and online petitions are a dime a bazillion.  This is where calls to boycott, calls to organize, calls to "Make WotC listen to the people" stem from.   Ironically the people who start this actually help the people in steps one and two move forward into this step, thereby aiding the process and speeding more and more people along. 

For example:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=3951685&postcount=14
and
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=3956351&postcount=1224

4: Depression, Reflection and Loneliness
The majority of the time, WotC doesn't change their minds and the change that was the impetus for this whole process marches forward.  As people realize that the anger and bargaining they are trying isn't working they reach this stage.  This is, in my opinion, one of the most important stages of this process (in any version, MTG, life, whatever).  It's the one that can't be rushed.  It can't be dealt with via logical debate, it's a time of taking stock in your goals and what these changes actually mean to you.  If anyone reading recalls the MTGO V3 cut over I would often advise people to figure out if V3 was something worth quitting over, or if months from the release they'd look back and feel silly.  That's the same council I'd give anyone wrestling with a big change.  Pretend you're you, six months in the future.   Look back at this change and think about if you would feel silly or smart to have left a game you enjoy because of it.  Bear in mind that it is far from easy to do this since it takes a lot of self reflection to even know what you enjoy about the game and what you expect out of it.  And then you have to apply this change, the implications and impacts of it to those goals.  But the end result is totally worth it and it will help you more than anything else can when you're deciding what, if any, action to take.

For example:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=3951767&postcount=44

5: The upward turn
Regardless of the end result of the previous step, this is where you begin to move forward and feel better about that decision.  But be careful not to allow self-rationalization to cloud the real reasoning.  If you want to quit Magic, quit Magic for your real reasons not because something was changed.  People often use the most recent change to excuse their real motives of leaving the game...  But I digress!  This is also the time when the people who are staying, or have decided to stay, start to band together and start on the next step.  This phase seems to be one of the quickest and shortest lived in MTG related issues.  Once someone is past this, they get into the next phase very quickly.  But there's a reason for this!  Wizards of the Coast is not run by morons.  They know that people love new sets, and that digging into a new set is one the funnest things for any hardcore Magic player to do.  (Be you hardcore casual or hardcore competitive).  Keep an eye on the timing of big, unpleasant announcements.  Notice that they're usually a couple of weeks before a new set is going to be released.  People ramp through the first four phases... then get angry, threaten to boycott, etc... only to see the shiniest new cards and promptly start building decks.  Essentially short circuiting this step in the process.

For example:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=3951714&postcount=21

6: Reconstruction and Working through
The "shiny new set" mentality means that this is the most likely phase for people to wind up on by the time the news is fully digested.  "M10 rules changes?  They suck I'm quitti ... hey, check out this new Baneslayer Angel, HOLY CRAP!". 

For example:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=3957645&postcount=1426

For example:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=3951707&postcount=20

7: Acceptance and Hope
Also known as the "Hey guys, check out this new deck!!" phase when people have realized that things are the way they are.  And even though they've changed, things are still okay.  Maybe even still fun.  And maybe, just maybe, even done for good reasons.  I have to admit that I, along with others disliked the Damage on the Stack changes.  It removed a part of the game that I really enjoyed.  However, 


Personally, I often get to step six or seven very quickly.  Largely because my perception is a bit different than most of the players who are obsessed enough to follow rumor mills, sign up for websites, and write about this fantastic game.  The problem this causes is that I generally try to help people long before they're ready to be helped.  When something bad happens I really just need to shut up, ask questions, and listen to the anger and frustration of my friends and peers.  That action will be infinitely better than trying to guide anyone to anything.  The biggest flaw with that plan, is that it's horribly difficult to do.  Especially if you're used to giving advice.  Or like to talk.  Or both.  But in reality all that is just making excuses for not being empathetic to a fellow human when all they really need is to be heard. 

It may seem strange to talk about this when there's no big issue, no "end is nigh" level event but actually that's the best time to do it.  Since it's the best time to have the right perspective and least emotional baggage about any specific concern.

 



Discussion Items:
Thoughts on Zendikar Sealed:
It appears that there are some who dislike the new sealed format.  If I take a spoonful of my own medicine given above I should respect this concern.  And I do.  In fact, just a few short years ago I was feeling the same about Kamigawa limited.  As such, I eschewed the Kami block and stayed with my trusty Mirrodin block.  And I survived the Kami block with my sanity.  So, for those who find themselves feeling frustrated about Zen limited, there's always Alara.  And M10.  And Tempest.  And Med3.  Or you can take a break.  Lots of options.

And then Buffy stakes Edward...:
You knew it was coming.  It was just a matter of time after all... the discussion about a Twilight sparkly vampire theme deck is upon us. 

Chat Transcript from a Developer Chat:
For those of you out there that love the nuts and bolts of this fine game (and really, who doesn't?) this is a great community chat with the guys behind the curtain.

Card Price Discussion:
We had some late action this week with quite a few different cards moving in various formats.  Standard, Extended, and Classic all some level of movement in the positive. I debated about leaving the Vanguard changes out of the numbers but I felt as if it was worth noting how much killing Standard Vanguard along with removing the new vanguard cards having abilities has done to their value.
You may also notice that most of the cards that went up were Competitive types of cards for different formats... Maelstrom Pulse, Baneslayer Angel, etc. If I had to guess people are looking at MTGO's competitive side with fresh eyes in the wake of getting PTQ's for sealed. If I had to guess, PTQ's for constructed events will eventually be here as well. If that's the case, then single card prices are about to become a lot closer to matching paper card prices.
Card Price Tables:

Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Maelstrom Pulse 15 11.5 3.5 30.43%
Master of the Wild Hunt 6 4.5 1.5 33.33%
Engineered Explosives 15 14 1 7.14%
Grindstone 19 18 1 5.56%
Tarmogoyf 23 22 1 4.55%
Arcbound Ravager 9 8 1 12.50%
Baneslayer Angel 25.5 24.5 1 4.08%
Crypt Rats 3.5 2.75 0.75 27.27%
Doubling Season 8.75 8 0.75 9.38%
Crypt Rats 3.5 2.75 0.75 27.27%
Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Petrified Field 1 0.5 0.5 100.00%
?ther Vial 1 0.65 0.35 53.85%
Leyline of Singularity 0.6 0.4 0.2 50.00%
Equipoise 0.6 0.4 0.2 50.00%
Golgari Grave_Troll 0.7 0.5 0.2 40.00%
Meditate 2.75 2 0.75 37.50%
Tormod's Crypt 1.75 1.3 0.45 34.62%
Master of the Wild Hunt 6 4.5 1.5 33.33%
Maelstrom Pulse 15 11.5 3.5 30.43%
Crypt Rats 3.5 2.75 0.75 27.27%
Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Avatar _ Platinum Angel 30 32 -2 -6.25%
Avatar _ Etched Oracle 18 20 -2 -10.00%
Cryptic Command 5 6.25 -1.25 -20.00%
Figure of Destiny 12.5 13.5 -1 -7.41%
Avatar _ Royal Assassin 15 16 -1 -6.25%
Avatar _ Sakashima the Impostor 9 10 -1 -10.00%
Avatar _ Ink_Eyes, Servant of On 14 15 -1 -6.67%
Reflecting Pool 8 8.75 -0.75 -8.57%
Reflecting Pool 9 9.5 -0.5 -5.26%
Avatar _ Maro 3.5 4 -0.5 -12.50%
Card This Week Last Week Value Change Percentage Change
Buried Alive 1 1.5 -0.5 -33.33%
Elvish Archdruid 0.9 1.3 -0.4 -30.77%
All Hallow's Eve 0.75 1 -0.25 -25.00%
Avatar _ Vampire Nocturnus 0.75 1 -0.25 -25.00%
Copy Enchantment 0.75 1 -0.25 -25.00%
Captain of the Watch 0.7 0.9 -0.2 -22.22%
Flame Javelin 1 1.25 -0.25 -20.00%
Pithing Needle 2 2.5 -0.5 -20.00%
Cryptic Command 5 6.25 -1.25 -20.00%
Siege_Gang Commander 0.8 1 -0.2 -20.00%


Card Price Charts:


Maelstrom Pulse chart
Master of the Wild Hunt chart
Engineered Explosives chart
Grindstone chart
Tarmogoyf chart
Arcbound Ravager chart
Baneslayer Angel chart
Crypt Rats chart
Doubling Season chart
Crypt Rats chart

Petrified Field chart
?ther Vial chart
Leyline of Singularity chart
Equipoise chart
Golgari Grave_Troll chart
Meditate chart
Tormod's Crypt chart
Master of the Wild Hunt chart
Maelstrom Pulse chart
Crypt Rats chart

Avatar Platinum Angel chart
Avatar _ Etched Oracle chart
Cryptic Command chart
Figure of Destiny chart
Avatar _ Royal Assassin chart
Avatar _ Sakashima the Impostor chart
Avatar _ Ink_Eyes, Servant of On chart
Reflecting Pool chart
Reflecting Pool chart
Avatar _ Maro chart

Buried Alive chart
Elvish Archdruid chart
All Hallow's Eve chart
Avatar _ Vampire Nocturnus chart
Copy Enchantment chart
Captain of the Watch chart
Flame Javelin chart
Pithing Needle chart
Cryptic Command chart
Siege_Gang Commander chart

Tournament Section:

We've had our first MTGO PTQ fire as I write this.  And I'm not business genius or anything, but they seem to have started in what I would call the 'successful' category so far.  The first one, which runs for six hours + sevenish hours starting at 7PM Central... just fired with 310 players in it.  On a Thursday night.  Quick math says... $9100 dollars in tickets gone, and 1860 packs opened.  That is 51.6 (we'll call it 52) boxes of cards opened, or just about 9 cases of M10 opened.  On the first PTQ Shootout alone.  Not counting the 'finals', or the 84 (um 86... 87...)  other players in the second shoot out.  Expect M10 cards to drop, at least a little as these cards hit the market en masse tonight/tomorrow.

Even if the second one fired right now, with 88 players in it, WotC just pulled down at least $11,740 tonight alone.  On a weeknight, in the evening US time.  I had some minor concerns about these... fears which appear to have been completely unfounded.  Well done (97...)

(fake edit: the second event fired with 163, making a total of 473 players in the two events.  A grand total of $14,190 for PTQ #1, and 479 packs or 13.3 boxes of M10 opened.  Great work WotC, this is a good first showing for the MTGO PTQ Season!).

Also of interest is this year's MTGO Player of the Year: yaya3! Congratulations yaya3, and all the other players (especially duotianshi203 for missing by 2 points!)!!!

Conclusion:
Next week I'll be in Austin, so I won't be making my typical State of the Program article. (108...) However, I will be live reporting the Austin Pro Tour and broadcasting all the MTGO goodies you can stand to see!  (113...)
Be sure to tune in for all the coverage!
 

21 Comments

I think this helped me a lot by marengo at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 03:48
marengo's picture
4

I think this helped me a lot in a completely unrelated to Magic way. Thanks.

No SotP next week? by Amar at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 04:06
Amar's picture

No SotP next week? Impossible! Is this because we didn't comment enough? Damn you and your absences. What if we promise to recruit new readers? This is what I get for counting on weekly columns.

I don't know. Maybe an Austin report will be good. There could even be some interesting MTGO news there. I can't wait!

(In a more substantive comment, I would counter that sometimes a change is more than just circumstantial and indicates a larger funcitonal shift. And that rather than just an emotional response of various stages, a legitimate logical break is justfied. For example, I think they are clearly designing more toward casual players than hardcore gamers now, and if you were one of the "Magic is the new Poker" people that's a legitimate reason to protest and ultimately leave.)

Wow. Ok that was a good read, by Paul Leicht at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 04:44
Paul Leicht's picture
5

Wow. Ok that was a good read, if only because the interviews with the Developers really engrossed me. So I guess I can live for 1 week without more SotP. But if you aren't back on the following there will be consequences. Have fun in Austin.

I always look forward to your by ArchGenius at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 10:22
ArchGenius's picture
5

I always look forward to your articles. Keep up the good work when you go to Austin, and show everyone how great Magic Online writers can be...

Looter Damage w/o the Stack by Giraffe at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 10:39
Giraffe's picture
5

Am I missing something on the "pain & guilt" (point 2) example - no longer being able to use looter during combat due to the removal of stacked combat damage?

Can't you just block, use the looter ability during Declare Blockers, and have him do his 2 points of combat damage? Were you describing something else or am I missing something?

Haven't finished reading the article but just wanted to clarify on this. :-)

lol i just got done having to by ShardFenix at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 11:34
ShardFenix's picture

lol i just got done having to deal with this in my organizational behavior class. only they narrow it down to four steps. Denial, Resistance, Exploration, and Commitment.

Zendikar sealed is very by Metalman (not verified) at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 11:40
Metalman's picture

Zendikar sealed is very similar to Alara sealed IMO. Luck >> skill.

Our discussion I thought put it pretty well:

First you have mana issues. In sealed you can easily draw too few or too many lands. Then you add in landfall guys and you not only can get mana screwed or mana flooded but you can get landfall screwed even though you drew well with land in the opening parts of the game. It adds a whole new 'landscrew' luck element to the game. Put on top of that the fact that very few guys are decent at blocking (aka Landscrew...I mean Landfall guys) and you have many degenerate blowout games where skill takes a backseat to luck.

-M

My main problem with Zen by StealthBadger at Sat, 10/10/2009 - 06:55
StealthBadger's picture

My main problem with Zen sealed is that you will never have enough stuff in 1 colour to go mono-coloured, but a substantial amount of the cards have double and triple mana costs, so you end up having to run loads of lands, or casting 3 drops on about turn 7 or 8.

MTGO prices vs. Paper prices by mysticknight232 (not verified) at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 12:23
mysticknight232's picture

You comment that prices may come more in line if we get more PTQ events. I'm just curious, how does MTGO prices currently compare to paper? Are they generally cheaper or more expensive than paper? If i had to guess i'd say the cheaper ones are cheaper and the more expensive ones are more expensive...if that make any sense. Fewer Baneslayers online making the price go up...but also no need to keep a box full of that common Shock from 10 years ago so those would be cheaper online (if anybody really paid for paper commons IRL anyway that is).

Thanks!

Online prices are generally by hamtastic at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 12:40
hamtastic's picture

Online prices are generally cheaper, and the rares are really going to be much cheaper for the forseeable future (thanks to Mythics).

However, as MTGO gets more and more constructed focused player get into MTGO the demand for chase Mythics and rares will improve greatly.

Figure of Destiny has killed by Anonymous (not verified) at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 12:45
Anonymous's picture

Figure of Destiny has killed me.

Consider redemption by Amar at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 18:31
Amar's picture

To expand on Hammy's explanation...

Singles prices are (almost) always cheaper because online play is driven by drafting and sealed. The ease of finding 3 packs and 7 other people online makes drafts very commonplace. Also, dedicated drafters sell their cards afterwards to help pay for the next draft. So the result is singles all over at low prices.

And online prices would be even lower if not for redemption, where you can take a full set of cards online and turn them in, to get a paper set mailed to you. But consider the exact system there - a _full_set_. That means 1 of every card, from commons through mythics. The result is that mythics get pulled out of the system, but each time there are commons, uncomomns, and rares left behind.

So Mythic prices tend to be fairly comparable online vs off. For example, Baneslayer is $30 in paper and $25.50 online, not a huge difference. If it was much less, then online dealers wouldn't sell, they'd just convert. However, Rootbound Crag is $2.50 online, $7.50 in paper, because every time a set is converted the lower rarities are left behind.

can someone explain to me why by me, myself and i (not verified) at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 17:12
me, myself and i's picture

can someone explain to me why siege gang commander continues to go down in value? I understand it isnt being used in t1 decks right now, but .80?!!!?? That is ridiculous, and by far the lowest I have ever seen them.
One other question, Has anyone actually ever bought an avatar for 30? Maybe someone that works for mtgotraders can answer that. 30 seems ridiculously high for something so narrow.

Not sure exactly about by spg at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 17:17
spg's picture

Not sure exactly about Siege-Gang Commander, but I can think of a couple of reasons...

Siege-Gang Commander was in M10, which was opened like crazy so there was a decent supply increase. In addition to this, the M10 rules update significantly weakened the card.

I bought mine for .70 each a by Paul Leicht at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 20:49
Paul Leicht's picture

I bought mine for .70 each a couple months ago.

My guess by Amar at Sat, 10/10/2009 - 15:48
Amar's picture

SGC is a card that already existed in playable quantities, and then M10 dumped a ton of them out there. Just a ton.

Compare it to Pithing Needle for example, which has come down drastically as well. Pithing Needle still goes for 2, because every single deck can potentially use 4 of them in the sideboard. Vs Siege-Gang Commander which is sometimes used in particular decks that may not even be good right now. But that's just how much M10 got drafted. And it's still happening.

SGC did get a boost when Warren Instigator was revealed. But that card doesn't look to be dominating in Standard and it's Mythicness will limit the number of SGC's needed to pair with it anyway.

Avatar by tempesteye at Sat, 10/10/2009 - 20:56
tempesteye's picture

Yes. I bought the platinum Angel Avatar for 28 (I hope that's close enough to 30 to satisfy you).
As a collector I like to have complete sets, and the fact is that I owned a copy of every Avatar except that one was an ongoing annoyance to me.

Sometimes it's not about the usability because if it were, there would be no market for foils either.

its kind of why I only by Urzishra (not verified) at Fri, 10/09/2009 - 19:38
Urzishra's picture

its kind of why I only occasionally draft/play sealed. The price of the event is the price of the event. it rarely goes up (too) much in the time I have to play them.

I like seeing digital cards have better values, but I hate it for when I want to get back into the game.

rats by BDirg (not verified) at Sat, 10/10/2009 - 00:10
BDirg's picture

Is there a reason for the sudden jump with regards to Crypt Rats? I see that they are up to $4.50 now. I know they are a part of a lot of pauper decks, but they have been for a long time and that's why a Visions/7th edition (un)common was $2.50 to begin with. Why the big step up now?

I added up mtgo traders by Anonymous (not verified) at Sat, 10/10/2009 - 01:29
Anonymous's picture

I added up mtgo traders prices for all complete sets for standard and it came to 618 and change, which is 90$ cheaper than your chart. are they heavily discounting full sets?

discount by mtgotraders at Sat, 10/10/2009 - 19:27
mtgotraders's picture
Yes we do some to make it worth buying a complete set.