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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Sep 09 2011 1:31pm
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Hammie’s The State of the Program for September 9th       
 
This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
 

News and Discussion Items:

You need NET 4.0 installed to play MTGO: If you are unable to load MTGO after the downtime, this could be the problem. Players must have .NET 4.0 Framework Client Profile installed in order to play Magic Online. Players who do not have .NET 4.0 need to download and install it. 
 
Planeswalker Points: A huge announcement from the paper world!  Wizards is doing away with ELO ratings in the paper world. ELO ratings were created for Chess tournaments, and the like, and have been used to track performance and qualify players for Pro Tours, Worlds and provide GP byes since the creation of the Pro Tour. 
 
No more.
 
Instead, Wizards has announced that players will earn “Planeswalker Points.” Planeswalker Points will be calculated differently: you get participation points based on the size and competitiveness of each event you enter, plus points for winning or drawing a match. (3 for a win, 1 for a draw.) Your participation points and match points are then multiplied by the event multiplier, which varies based on the level of competitiveness of the event. Causal events award a fixed – and low – number of points. 
 
The announcement is here.   The FAQ is here. You can find out how many points you have here. Personally, I am a Level 40 Sorcerer.  However, Planeswalker Points come in several flavors – lifetime, professional, competitive and FNM. I am Level 40 based on lifetime points. However, only Competitive points are used for qualifications, and they reset every season. I, like everyone else, has zero competitive points – but I will earn some this Friday, at FNM.   
 
This change is big. It will clearly benefit some players and hurt others. However, the biggest change is that you now earn points for playing Magic, and more for winning. This was not the case with rating points, where players with a high rating could go 4-1 at FNM and lose rating points on the night. It was also a reason that a lot of players who could qualify on rating to Pro Tours and the like would not play in anything else, to protect their rating. That should change, and that change will be good for the game.
 
So far, Wizards has not announced how this will affect MTGO. It may not – but note that the Magic Player reward points earned online are similar to Planeswalker Points. It is possible that MTGO events could earn Planeswalker Points, but I would not expect this anytime soon. Wizards needs to keep players coming to stores, so I would expect MTGO events to either be counted separately, or for MTGO events to have a very small multiplier. That said, I could also see the current MOCS being modified to run on Planeswalker points, or seeing online Planeswalker Points being used to qualify for special events. I would also expect that our ratings will disappear sometime soon. 
      
I will probably have more to say about this in the future, but I want to think about it some more. I do have one final comment, though. I have only rarely played paper Magic recently, but this change will probably get me to more FNM events, and convince me to play, not judge, in some GPs. You see, I’m in striking distance of level 41…
 
Innistrad Spoilers are Ongoing: We are just a couple weeks away from the paper prerelease. Wizards is spoiling cards right and left. The WotC visual spoiler contains all the cards officially released. Other websites can provide rumors and speculation. I’m not going to add anything at the moment. I’ll say more after I get my hands on some cards at the paper prerelease.     
 
And if you haven’t seen it already, PureMTGO had its own preview card.
 
Modern after the Pro Tour: The first Modern Pro Tour is in the books. Wizards announced goal for the format was to have an evergreen format with no consistent combo kills before turn four. That seems like a bust, but the format was interesting. 
 
The October 1st Banned and Restricted List update should be very interesting. At that point, we will see where Wizards wants to take the format. In the meantime, a lot of pros, and others, are writing about possible changes. I recommend Zvi’s article on SCG, for those with premium access. 
 
I’ll talk about the new Modern metagame in the Cutting edge Tech section.  
 
Ravnica Drafts:  Wizards has added Ravnica NIX PAX drafts. If you want a chance to open the Ravnica duals, this is it. The queue is TIX only, and the 4-3-2-2 payout is not insane, but not bad. However, this really should have happened before the PT. Prices are down this week, and the average value of a the cards in a Ravnica draft set is now down to about $5.00. ($5.07 as of Wednesday morning.) True, you could open Breeding Pool or Steam Vents, but you are far more likely to open a $0.10 cent rare. Sorry, folks. 
 
Urza’s Block Drafts are gone:  Wizards pulled Urza’s block out of the draft queue. I did not see any prior notice of this change (and I looked.) Last week, ___ said it would happen in feedback to my article, so I check everywhere I could think of in Wizards websites, forums and blogs for any official word. I could not find anything, but looking at the draft queues after the downtime makes it clear they are gone. I don’t know if that means that they are gone for good, or merely removed while the Ravnica NIX PAX drafts are available.   We will see.   
 
Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas Duel Decks is in the store.  This is not insane, but it does have a reasonable number of Invasion lock cards – and those are kinda pricey.   Those cards - Undermine, Blazing Specter - plus the marquee Planeswalkers pretty much pay for the set. The rest is gravy.
 

Editorial Section: Planeswalker Points

I like the change.  What more can I say.
 
(I may have more, later.)
 

Tournaments:

Thursday Night Magic the upcoming week (September 15th):  Standard. TNMO is a simple way to get used to playing in competitive tournaments, without much cost. It’s worth it.  The TNMO card for September is an alternative art (Teetering Peaks).  
 
Ravnica Block Nix Pax drafts are coming back September 7th through 14th. It is a chance to open some of those super-expensive Ravnica duals or a Dark Confidant. Worth it, if you like to draft unusual formats. Ravnica is not quite Invasion block, but it is still a great draft format. 
 
No analysis of the rate at which tournaments fired this week. Wizards still has not updated their calendar, so I don’t have a baseline. 
 
Let’s look at the Constructed Tournaments breakdown for the week of August 31st through September 7th.    What fired?
 
Format
Fired
Format
Fired
Standard
48
Standard Singleton
0
Pauper
33
Kaleidoscope
0
Momir Basic
26
100–card Singleton
0
Modern
36
Classic
0
Legacy
0
Extended
0
Scars Block Constructed
0
-
-
 
FYI: I got the number fired from the list of results, here.  
 

Cutting Edge Tech:

Standard: Standard was played this week, but all eyes were on the Pro Tour and the Modern format.
 
Modern: The first Modern Pro Tour – meaning a Pro Tour featuring the Modern format, has come and gone. Let’s look at the results. Before that, however, let me remind you of the MTGO metagame the week before the Pro Tour:
 
Deck
Finishes
 
Deck
Finishes
Splinter Twin
5
 
Zoo
10
12Post
29
 
     Confidant Zoo
5
        Mono-green 12Post
21
 
     Punishing Zoo
1
        Scapeshift 12Post
4
 
     Naya Zoo
3
        UG 12Post
4
 
Living End
4
Melira / Birthing Pod
11
 
Shamans
2
Hive Mind
8
 
Curio Elves
2
Gifts Ungiven
2
 
Pyromancer Ascension
8
Jund
4
 
Merfolk
5
Affinity
7
 
GB Cry of Contrition
4
 
The Pro Tour had a very different metagame. The biggest wining deck on MTGO – 12Post – was a non-starter. A few people did reasonably well with a red version of the deck, adding Through the Breach for a very fast Emrakul, but that was only moderately successful.  Versions with Amulet of Vigor also did passably well at the PT, but not that well. The deck was cool, but not cool enough.
 
The second most successful archetype online was the Melira / Birthing Pod combo. That deck did crack the top fifty, but it was also a bust. 
 
The two best combo decks on MTGO did perform quite well under the lights. Splinter Twin won the whole thing, while both (Pyromancers Ascension) and (Pyromancer’s Swath) UR combo decks did well.  
 
Zoo decks were very successful and ubiquitous online, but they failed at the PT. The one Zoo deck that did do well was the Channel Fireball team build, which packed a heavy blue counterspell component. That almost worked, in that Josh Utter-Layton took it to the finals, but he lost to Splinter Twin. 
 
The other big combo deck at the PT was a poison deck. Yes poison, as in turn one, play Inkmoth Nexus, go. Turn two: land, activate Nexus, attack, play Blazing Shoal discarding Progenitus to make the Nexus an 11/1 infect dude, which is lethal. A lot of pro teams had that deck, but it did not appear on MTGO before the event. 
 
So what does all this mean. First of all, it shows that the MTGO metagame is not always a good representation of the actual metagame at large events. This is especially true of Pro Tours. The MTGO crowd is good at finding decks and developing tech, but the total number of players in MTGO DEs and PEs is not all that large, and many of them have commitments outside Magic. MTGO grinders are good, but they rarely generate the cooperative effort of a dozen pros spending a week in a hunting lodge - plus another 20 or 30 high-caliber teams doing the same things in other locations.     
 
Second, it shows that a format is rarely “solved.” This is especially true of a format with as many cards as Modern. Before the Pro Tour, MTGO had a fairly advanced Modern metagame. After the PT, the metagame has changed. However, that does not mean that there are no other decks waiting to be discovered. There almost certainly are – finding them just takes work.  
 
Legacy and Classic did not do much this week, so I am going to spend my time on Modern.  However, SCG is running another Open this weekend, so we will have results next week. Let’s see if anything changes. 
 

Card Prices:  

Note: for cards that are available in multiple sets, I am generally quoting the most recent set’s price, which is almost always the lowest. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Primeval Titan is from M12. 
 
Standard prices are jumping around. Some of this is pre-rotation sell-off, but some prices are rising, probably as people move back into Standard after playtesting Modern.
 
Standard & Block Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 11.25
Y
$ 9.95
+ $ 1.35
$ 14.50
Y
$ 18.00
- $ 3.50
(Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas)
$ 17.50
Y
$ 18.50
- $ 1.00
$ 4.50
Y
$ 4.50
---
$ 8.95
Y
$ 8.95
---
$ 18.50
Y
$ 20.00
- $ 1.50
$ 9.50
N
$ 9.50
---
$ 19.75
Y
$ 19.75
---
$ 17.95
Y
$ 18.50
- $ 0.55
$ 11.50
Y
$ 13.95
- $ 2.45
$ 6.50
Y
$ 7.75
- $ 1.25
$ 11.50
Y
$ 12.75
- $ 1.25
$ 18.95
Y
$ 23.00
- $ 4.05
(Sword of War and Peace)
$ 23.00
Y
$ 23.00
---
$ 10.25
Y
$ 9.95
+ $ 0.30
$8.25
Y
$ 7.25
+ $ 1.00
 $ 16.00
Y
 $ 15.50
+ $ 0.50
$ 6.75
Y
$ 4.95
+ $ 1.80
$ 1.30
Y
$ 1.15
+ $ 0.15
           
 
Last week, I made two comments. First, I said the Pro Tour would shake up prices. Second, I said that Modern prices showed signs of a bubble. Looks like the bubble burst.  The biggest losers were cards that just did not perform, like Thoughtseize and Dark Confidant.
 
Modern Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 25.00
Y
$ 33.50
- $ 8.50
$ 8.00
Y
$ 10.00
- $ 2.00
$ 23.00
Y
$ 19.75
+ $ 3.25
$ 14.00
Y
$ 13.50
+ $ 0.50
$ 8.50
Y
$ 12.50
- $ 4.00
$ 14.50
Y
$ 23.00
- $ 8.50
 $ 12.50
Y
 $ 14.00
- $ 1.50
(Knight of the Reliquary)
$ 8.50
Y
$ 10.95
- $ 2.45
$ 85.00
Y
$ 78.00
+ $ 7.00
(Engineered Explosives)
$ 17.50
Y
$ 18.75
- $ 1.25
$ 7.75
Y
$ 10.50
- $ 2.75
$ 13.75
Y
$ 21.75
- $ 8.00
$ 19.50
Y
$ 18.50
+ $ 1.00
$ 11.50
Y
$ 15.50
- $ 4.00
$ 18.50
Y
$ 24.00
- $ 5.50
             
 
Legacy prices are falling again.  Big Jace is up a bit, but the format, overall, is not doing well. I blame Mental Misstep.
 
Legacy Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 109.00
Y
$ 125.00
- $ 16.00
$ 49.00
Y
$ 49.00
---
$ 74.10
Y
$ 74.10
---
$ 28.00
Y
$ 32.00
- $ 4.00
$ 34.00
Y
$ 32.00
+ $ 2.00
$ 1.50
Y
$ 1.75
- $ 0.25
$14.95
Y
$15.50
- $ 0.55
$ 18.00
Y
$ 20.00
- $ 2.00
$ 17.50
Y
$ 17.50
---
$ 65.00
Y
$ 70.00
- $ 5.00
$ 41.80
Y
$ 42.75
- $ 0.95
$ 5.75
Y
$ 6.25
- $ 0.50
$ 9.00
Y
$ 9.00
---
$ 14.50
N
$ 13.75
+ $ 0.75
$ 11.95
Y
$ 11.95
---
$ 5.75
Y
$ 5.75
---
 
 
 
 
 
           
 
Note: cards which are staples in both Legacy and Classic may appear in either list. If you don’t see a card in one list, check the other.
 
Classic prices are also headed down. Thirty-eight players are playing in Season Two Classic League, but I guess we didn’t buy many cards. Well, maybe this price drop will let a few more players enter the format. 
 
Classic Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 94.00
Y
$ 96.00
- $ 2.00
$ 21.00
Y
$ 25.00
- $ 4.00
$ 17.00
Y
$ 18.95
- $ 1.95
$ 12.00
Y
$ 13.95
- $ 1.00
$ 15.00
Y
$ 16.00
- $ 1.00
$ 9.50
Y
$ 9.95
- $ 0.45
$ 27.00
Y
$ 26.00
+ $ 1.00
$ 44.00
Y
$ 44.00
---
$ 40.00
Y
$ 40.00
---
$ 10.50
Y
$ 12.00
- $ 1.50
$ 22.00
Y
$ 22.00
---
           
 

The Top Ten:

Here’s this week’s list of the top ten most expensive non-foil, non-promo cards on MTGO. Now that Modern prices are coming back to reality, Jace is back in the top ten.
 
Most Expensive Cards
Price
Set
Last Week
$ 19.00
MED 1
# 1
$ 94.00
Mirage
# 2
$ 85.00
Future Sight
# 3
$ 74.10
Apocalypse
# 4
$ 65.00
Visions
# 5
$ 49.00
Tempest
# 6
$ 44.00
Weatherlight
# 7
$ 42.75
Apocalypse
# 8
$ 40.00
Odyssey
# 9
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
$ 32.00
Dissension
n/a

Deck Prices:

I want to revamp this section a bit.   I’d appreciate comments on what you would like to see in this area. What works, what does not?
 

Weekly Highlights:

I played in the Modern TNMO last week. Yes, it was Modern before the PT, and it was TNMO. On the other hand, it was a lot of fun. Here’s a short video recapping my event:
 
 

 
 
PRJ
 
“one million words” on MTGO.

 

15 Comments

Deck Prices by howlett23 at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 15:05
howlett23's picture
5

Another good article, thanks.

As for your request for the Deck Prices section, I like the "old" way where you priced out the most popular decks, perhaps take the top two or three from each format(Classic, Legacy, Modern and Standard) and show a whole deck list grid with that week's prices. I think that would help some people know what is in the decks, and see what cards span multiple decks(Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf, FOW, etc.) and thus give them some info if they are looking to invest. I know you might run into the same archetype with different cards, but I would say just pick one that had the results most recently as 80% of the cards are going to be the same. I also like your PTSD priced out decks/lists, as an old school player I am fond of those old combo/killer decks and it was nice to be able to see what they would cost today to build online...am I the only one waiting for Masques? Go Pandeburst!! Thanks again for all your work.

You really care that much by Amar at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 15:25
Amar's picture

You really care that much about getting to 41? Ok, I can' t tell hou you're wrong for wanting it, but grinding events for points that mean nothing doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Meanwhile, they've just removed the skill measurement from a game that used to care about being a "mental sport" because thy realized iit didn't have the feedback loop of a Farmville. In it's place is a multi-tiered yet meaningless Players Reward system. Now Players Rewards are great motivation for all the reasons Mike and Aaron mentioned. But what the don't mention is that they [b]just got rid of[/b] such a system. One with real rewards.

I personally aren't affected. I lost a bye and potential invite from a GP that I wasn't going to go to anyway. It's just another sign to me though that I'm an adult playing a game that doesn't want to be taken seriously by adults anymore.

my guess by howlett23 at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 15:30
howlett23's picture

is that his comment was a bit "tongue in cheek" since 41 is a Battlemage and sounds infinitely cooler than Sorcerer..just a guess... :-)

Disagree by one million words at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 16:05
one million words's picture

No - the fact that you get 3 points for a win and one for a loss means that skill is still involved. Size of event matters, etc., but that is the multiplier that inflates the points you win or lose. (I'll do the math next week.)

As for ELO - I played against a rare drafter with a 1300 rating in a 32k event - and mulliganned six times in two games. Tell me that ratings loss had anything to do with relative skill - or that it was reasponable to have to win two dozen straight matches to catch up again.

ELO was not a panacea.

This system does two things - gets people to play Magic in stores, and provides a means of giving out invitations to good players. When you look at both goals, it is pretty clear that this is better than ELO.

And no, I am not obsessed about reaching Level 41, but I have been skipping FNM for a while, because it has not seemed worth the drive. This is a change that has me interested in playing again. It didn't take much - porbably tipped 49% go, 51 % skip the drive over to 51% go.

I see I'llhave to work on this for next week.

Can I tell you that 1 match by Amar at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 17:46
Amar's picture

Can I tell you that 1 match isn't a statistically significant number instead? If your concern is that the variance of Magic outweighs the tolerance of Elo that might be a worthy discussion, but it's hardly a reason to scrap the system.

I can't pull up the numbers to quote at the moment since I'm working from mobile (which hopefully excuses my horrid typing), but I demonstrated the other day that doing 3-2 and 4-2 at just 4 FNM and 4 PTQs gives more points than [b]winning[/b] a Grand Prix. Now you can make whatever case you like about which is a better customer and worthier human being, but let's not pretend they're relatively the same display of skill.

But its not about what by LostAlone at Sat, 09/10/2011 - 15:49
LostAlone's picture

But its not about what results at what events give the most points. It's not like people are going to say 'Nah screw winning the grand prix, I'm just cool getting middling results at FNM' and ending up at the Pro-Tour.

The idea is that all levels of competitive magic are worth playing because they all give you points and nothing can take that away from you once you have them. The whole idea about the system is to get people playing magic week in and week out, and those who are both active AND consistently successful get onto the PT circuit.

What does that mean in practical terms ? Well it means that you can't just surge ahead by jumping on the winning band wagon before everyone else does and then just stop playing when the meta stabilizes and similar crap that preserves your rating at the expense of your credibility. You have to show that you can consistently win in competitive formats throughout the year, both early in the meta when strong constructed decks are less common and months later when every t1 deck has a strategy to kill you.

That's what this is all about. If you want to really be a pro you need to sit down and play in every event you can and get good finishes. Doesn't make much difference if its a PTQ or a GP or FNM, play at the all and do well and you can get there.

" Urza’s Saga Block Draft by Mooncalf at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 15:27
Mooncalf's picture

"
Urza’s Saga Block Draft Queues going away 9/7

After a long run, the Urza’s Saga Block draft queues will no longer be scheduled after the downtime on September 7. Don't worry, though, Urza's Saga Block events will be back for special engagements in the future.

"

http://community.wizards.com/magiconline/blog/2011/08/30/announcements_-...

thanks. not sure how I by one million words at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 16:06
one million words's picture

thanks. not sure how I missed that.

Understandable that you by GainsBanding at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 22:40
GainsBanding's picture

Understandable that you missed it since they have a "what's happening" page on the wizards site and a separate "magic online group" (also sometimes called the Magic Online blog just to make things more confusing) on the wizards community site. Why these are separate makes about as much sense as anything wotc does I guess.

That was the only announcement - one short paragraph on the blog that was buried deep in the internet. No going away events or anything.

For those who don't know, the group/blog site is here and updated once a week before downtime:
http://community.wizards.com/magiconline

Interesting switch between by blandestk at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 16:24
blandestk's picture

Interesting switch between the ELO ratings and the new system. The new system is much closer to a FIFA-type ratings system. Not exactly, but it's closer than chess ratings. Interestingly, you can alter the chess ratings formula to suit the game you're using it for, but I'm assuming the Magic folks never looked into that. It's hard to do, but I've done it fairly successfully for other sports and games.

Also, just my two cents, but RAV draft is way better than INV. Ravnica is probably the best draft set I've ever had the pleasure to play.

i dont think i like the by seydaneen at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 16:55
seydaneen's picture

i dont think i like the modern format. as somebody said, it is like legacy without wasteland and fow. i am sure wizards will chnage banned/unbanned list but i think we need force of will in modern. is it too much to ask for a format where midrange decks (rock, doran, etc..) are competetive?

As usual this is a top notch by Paul Leicht at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 17:03
Paul Leicht's picture
5

As usual this is a top notch series and I think you are doing credit to Erik's SotP series. But $19 FOWS? Don't we wish eh? :p I know, typo. Still funny :D.

I disagree that a format is by walkerdog at Fri, 09/09/2011 - 17:21
walkerdog's picture
5

I disagree that a format is never solved: MTGO players had a couple of months to figure the format out, not years, and it was brand new and huge. Think about how long it took Legacy to evolve into every playable deck being put together: It was a long time! At this point though, we know just about everything you can do in Legacy. Modern will be similar: give MODOers a year and see what happens to it at the next PT.

"Legacy prices are falling by Nagarjuna at Sat, 09/10/2011 - 03:31
Nagarjuna's picture
5

"Legacy prices are falling again. Big Jace is up a bit, but the format, overall, is not doing well. I blame Mental Misstep." I blame modern ;-)

Blue control was completely by char49d at Sat, 09/10/2011 - 03:50
char49d's picture

Blue control was completely absent from the Pro Tour, and many people think they will make changes to the Modern Banned list. I'm bringing this up because Jace is going to see a significant price bump, because he is one of the cards speculated to come off, along with Ancestral Vision. I expect him to be 3-5 tickets higher leading up to the announcement on the 20th.

Vision has been reprinted and is in a dual deck, so it has a lower ceiling. Cloudpost may also get banned, but there really isn't any reason to dump them, they are going to hold value due to pauper regardless.