The Value of Old Cards

I am playing out "The Ultimate Standard Tournament" over on SCG.  It's a 32 deck single elimination tournament with thirty two of the best / most broken decks of all time.  The rule was that the deck had to be played to a good finish by a known player - but I was looking for the most famous archetypes of all time.  A lot of people contacted me and commented in the forums, and the final list had almost 70 serious contenders, which I cut down to 32.  (No, I'm not going to rehash that culling process.)

Here are the 32 decks that made the cut. 

1. NecroPotence - Brian Wiessman {no sideboard}
2. Rec / Sur (Brian Seldon, Worlds) *
3. Cuneo Blue (Randy Buehler, Worlds 1998)*
4. Covetous Wildfire (Kai Budde, Worlds 1999) *
5. Deadguy Red (Rubin, Worlds 1998)
6. Tolarian Blue (Chris Warren IL States version) *
7. Sabre Bargain (Jon Finkel, Masters 2000)*
8. Napster (Jon Finkel, US Nats 2000) *
9. Tinker (Jon Finkel, Worlds 2000) *
10. Replenish (Tom Van de Logt, Worlds 2000) *
11. Angry Hermit (Aaron Forsythe, US Nats 2000) *
12. Brawler Ponza (Sean McKeown, Grinders, 2001)
13. Fires (Zvi, PT Chicago 2000)*
14. Squirrel Opposition (Eugene Harvey, US Nats 2002) *
15. Tog (Carlos Romao, Worlds 2002)*
16. Goblin Bidding (Wolfgang Eder, Worlds 2003)*
17. UG Madness (David Humphries, Worlds 2003) *
18. Astral Slide (Gabe Walls, U.S. Nats, 2003)*
19. Skullclamp Affinity (Go Anan deck / Shuuhei Nakamura, Japan Nats.) *
20. Ghazi Glare (Katsuhiro Mori, Worlds 2005) *
21. Dragonstorm (Mihara, Worlds 2005)
22. Faeries (Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, Hollywood 2008) *
23. Jund (Owen Turtenwald, GP DC)
24. Doran (Yann Massicard, GP: Seattle)
25. 5 color Control (Gabriel Nassif, PT Kyoto)
26. Chapin 5CB
27. Boss Naya (LSV, PT San Diego) *
28. Mythic Conscription (Nakoi Nakada - GP Manilla)
29. Super Friends (Carlos Romao - GP DC)
30. Next Level Bant (Brian Kibler, GP: Sendai)
31. Corrupter Black (Jacob Selmur, Worlds 1999)- Adrian Sullivan
32. Stompy (Matt Linde, Worlds 1999)

A few years ago, I did the same thing with 32 Extended decks.  I played all of those matches out in paper, since my MTGO collection - at that time - was very shallow, and since most of the cards from most of the decks were not available online.  Back then, many of the chosen Extended decks had dual lands, and MTGO did not.  Now, things are a bit different.  

The 32 Standard decks fall into three basic categories:  not online, online and I have it, and online but I'd need cards.  When it is possible to play these old decks online, playing online is >> trying to find opponents for paper matches.  

BTW - if anyone wants to help play these matches out, the decklists to be used, and the pairings, can be found here.   I will, when I'm online and not drafting, be in the "UST" room.  Just type "/join UST" and look me up.  Check out the brackets, though, before you start putting your deck together.  A few matches have already been played out, and a few online decks have round one pairings against decks that are not online.   For example, Super Friends is on the list, but it was paired against Angry Hermit (which is not online) and it lost.  Super Friends is eliminated.

The following decks are not playable online, because they rely on cards that are not yet released.  In most cases, they have cards from Urza's Destiny or Mercadian Masques, but a few need other cards.  The Academy deck needs Mana Vault, which was in the Fifth Edition Core Set.  Anyway, these decks are not playable online:

4. Covetous Wildfire (Kai Budde, Worlds 1999)
6. Tolarian Blue (Chris Warren IL States version)
7. Sabre Bargain (Jon Finkel, Masters 2000)
8. Napster (Jon Finkle, US Nats 2000)
9. Tinker (Jon Finkel, Worlds 2000)
10. Replenish (Tom Van de Logt, Worlds 2000)
11. Angry Hermit (Aaron Forsythe, US Nats 2000)
12. Brawler Ponza (Sean McKeown, Grinders, 2001)
11. Fires (Zvi, PT Chicago 2000)13. Fires (Zvi, PT Chicago 2000)
31. Corrupter Black (Jacob Selmur, Worlds 1999)- Adrian Sullivan
32. Stompy (Matt Linde, Worlds 1999) (maindeck is playable)

The next group of decks are modern decks, but ones that require a playset of Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Gideon Jura, or Vengevines.  These are decks that are perfectly playable, but that I don't have the cards for (yet), and can't afford to simply buy.  I don't have the spare cash to splurge on playsets of Mythics, at least not while I still have dozens of packs to draft away.   Whatever - here are the modern decks I can't yet afford.

28. Mythic Conscription (Nakoi Nakada - GP Manilla)
29. Super Friends (Carlos Romao - GP DC)
30. Next Level Bant (Brian Kibler, GP: Sendai)

I'm hoping someone can bring these decks to the UST room so I can play against someone elses's version.  

That leaves the more interesting set of decks - the decks that were once good, but have rotated out.  In many cases, these decks are cheap.  However, with the revision of Extended, it is pretty clear that they are not playable in Extended, Classic or Legacy.  The question is whether there is any point in collecting these cards. 

Let's look the first such deck: 

UG Madness

David Humphreys - Top 8, Worlds 2003

Creatures 4 Aquamoeba 3 Arrogant Wurm 4 Basking Rootwalla 4 Wild Mongrel 3 Wonder 18 cards Other Spells 4 Careful Study 4 Circular Logic 2 Deep Analysis 1 Krosan Reclamation 2 Quiet Speculation 1 Ray of Revelation 3 Roar of the Wurm 3 Unsummon 20 cards

Lands 1 Centaur Garden 2 City of Brass 8 Forest 11 Island 22 cards Sideboard 1 Deep Analysis 2 Envelop 1 Krosan Reclamation 2 Mana Leak 2 Nantuko Vigilante 2 Phantom Centaur 1 Ray of Revelation 2 Stupefying Touch 1 Unsummon 1 Wonder 15 cards

Back in the day, you had decks like this - decks with almost no rares.  The Rare count is basically two City of Brass.  I already had most of the commons, from various Pauper games, and a few cards that were used in other decks (e.g. Careful Study was used in Dredge.)  To complete this deck, I needed the Wonders, the Arrogant Wurms, the Quiet Speculations and odd lots like Envelop and Stupefying Touch.  Total cost of the dozen or so cards I needed to complete the deck - a little over two bucks at MTGOTraders.  I bought - plus some other stuff.  (Actually, I bought a lot, including a Jace and a Gideon.  The total was a bit more than two bucks.)

As it happened, I logged on, collected my cards and went to the UST room.  I was met by a player who wanted to play Dragonstorm in the UST, so UG Madness was immediately valuable.  However, outside of silliness like the UST, how useful will these cards ever be?  They clearly are not an investment.  They are relatively common cards from a semi-recent block, and are only useful in decks that abuse a mechanic that is unlikely to ever be reprinted.  But maybe that's an over-generalization.  Let's look further.

First of all, the Cities of Brass.  Back when I bought them, they were not an investment expected to grow in value over the long haul.  They were tools.  They were critical components of decks that I was playing at the time.  I bought them to play, and kept them because I have two fundamental rules about selling cards.  1) Never sell lands.  (online, that is modified to keep a playset of every land.)  and 2) Never sell on a declining market.  I do sell spares, but I don't like to sell out at the end of the season, as prices fall like a rock.  If people are offering me fractions of a ticket per card, I'll keep them.  Most of the time, those cards will never be worth anything, ever, but every so often a combo deck using one of the cards appears, or the card is reprinted, and the value soars. 

Circular Logic is likely to be playable in various decks in the future.  Various effects let you Madness it out, but it is a decent three casting cost counter in other situations.  Circular Logic is also playable in Tog decks, and it is just barely possible that Tog will become Legacy playable again.  For these reasons, Circular Logic still has some value.  It accounts for a fair amount of the $2.75 cost of the UG Madness cards.  

Wonder is fun in semi-casual EDH and Commander decks, and I played it in my 5color / Prismatic deck years ago.  However, I rarely want more than one or two copies, so I suspect buying four to complete the deck was partly a waste.  On the other hand, Wonder is a card that might be reprinted in a base set someday, at which point the old versions will regain some value.

Cards like Envelop almost look like they might have some value.  At first glance, you might see how they could find a niche in Legacy or Vintage, but on a second look, it is hard to see how Envelop could ever make the cut over Spell Pierce or Disrupt - both of which are better one mana counters.  However, sometimes cards such as these see play is certain narrow situations.  It's often worth a few cents to have the options available, before they become "tech" and the price quadruples.  (Although, in this case, quadrupling the price would bring it all the way to $0.12.)

Finally, Arrogant Wurm is a creature.  My rule on lands is "never trade them away."  My rule on creatures is "if it's name doesn't start with "Tarmo" and end with "goyf," it will not keep any value.  As soon as creatures leave Standard, or now the new Extended, their value crashes.  My plan, for recent sets, has been to play enough limited to get playsets of  all the commons and uncommons, most of the rares and what Mythics I can, then buy the ones I really like.  I will sell high-value creatures early on, assuming I am not playing them in a deck, and buy them back later, after they rotate, if I want to play them casually.  As a rule, creatures just do not hold value.

Let's look at another deck:

Astral Slide

Gabe Walls - Top 8, US Nationals, 2003

Creatures 3 Eternal Dragon 3 Exalted Angel 6 cards Other Spells 3 Astral Slide 4 Burning Wish 3 Decree of Justice 4 Lightning Rift 4 Renewed Faith 2 Slice and Dice 4 Spark Spray 3 Wrath of God 27 cards

Lands 4 Forgotten Cave 8 Mountain 8 Plains 4 Secluded Steppe 3 Temple of the False God 27 cards Sideboard 1 Ancestral Tribute 2 Cleansing Meditation 1 Decree of Justice 1 Demolish 1 Eternal Dragon 1 Exalted Angel 2 Morningtide 2 Obliterate 1 Overmaster 1 Slice and Dice 1 Wrath of God 14 cards

A couple years ago, I played a RW Martyr of Sands deck that used many of these cards.  I have a couple Eternal Dragons, one Exalted Angel and most of the lands.  I need more Angels, more Dragons and the cycling cards.  The investment needed to finish this deck is way more than $2.50.  Way more.  My question is whether I would ever want to play Slide decks again.  I'm really uncertain on that front.

Slide is almost playable in Legacy, now.  I see a Slide deck doing well every so often in a Legacy or Classic DE.  Slide could also be good if the rumors of a new, Mercadian Masques forward format ever prove true.  If so, buying the cards now, while demand is low, could make a lot of sense.  Provided I wanted to try playing Slide.

However, right now, I am going to pass.  In the UST, Slide is paired against Napster in round one.  I don't know how that will turn out, but I do know that Napster is not available online.   I will be playing that match out in paper.  The winner of the Slide/Napster match will be playing the winner of Brawler Ponza - a fast land destruction deck - against a Reflecting Pool based 5 color control deck.  Ponza should win, and Ponza is not online.  If I need Slide online, it won't be for a couple weeks, so I will wait.

I did buy the cards to complete these decks.

15. Tog (Carlos Romao, Worlds 2002)*
19. Skullclamp Affinity (Go Anan deck / Shuuhei Nakamura, Japan Nats.) *
20. Ghazi Glare (Katsuhiro Mori, Worlds 2005) *
21. Dragonstorm (Mihara, Worlds 2005)
22. Faeries (Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, Hollywood 2008) *
23. Jund (Owen Turtenwald, GP DC)
24. Doran (Yann Massicard, GP: Seattle)
25. 5 color Control (Gabriel Nassif, PT Kyoto)
26. Chapin 5CB
27. Boss Naya (LSV, PT San Diego) *

In nearly every case, I already had most of the cards.  In a few cases, cards overlapped (e.g. the Circular Logics completed both UG Madness and Tog, and almost completed Squirrel Opposition.)  In others, the cards were either cheap (like UG Madness), or I had everything but the lands.  In Doran, for example, I had everything except a Twilight Mire (I had traded away a foil - my fourth copy), and wanted to recreate the playset.

There are advantages to playing a lot of limited, and keeping playsets of pretty much everything.

Here are a few deck I have not been able to get together.

Goblin Bidding

Wolfgang Elder - Top 8, Worlds, 2003

Creatures 3 Gempalm Incinerator 1 Goblin Grappler 4 Goblin Piledriver 2 Goblin Sharpshooter 4 Goblin Sledder 3 Goblin Taskmaster 4 Goblin Warchief 4 Siege-Gang Commander 3 Skirk Prospector 4 Sparksmith 32 cards Other Spells 3 Patriarch's Bidding 3 Smother 6 cards

Lands 4 Bloodstained Mire 1 City of Brass 10 Mountain 3 Shadowblood Ridge 4 Swamp 22 cards Sideboard 2 Cabal Therapy 2 Dark Banishing 2 Flaring Pain 1 Smother 4 Starstorm 4 Sulfuric Vortex 15 cards

This one is pretty simple.  I was not online back when Onslaught was being opened.  Goblins has always been a solid deck, ever since, so Goblins have never been cheap.  As a result, I need pretty much every rare in the deck.  I can't afford that - not for an archetype I have never much liked.  I'm just hoping that someone shows up in /join UST with a Bidding deck, so I can play against it.  I can't afford to buy it. 

Rec / Sur

Brian Selden - Top 8, Worlds, 1998

Creatures 4 Birds of Paradise 1 Cloudchaser Eagle 1 Man-o'-War 2 Nekrataal 1 Orcish Settlers 2 Spike Feeder 1 Spirit of the Night 1 Thrull Surgeon 1 Tradewind Rider 2 Uktabi Orangutan 1 Verdant Force 4 Wall of Blossoms 4 Wall of Roots 25 cards Other Spells 1 Spike Weaver 2 Firestorm 2 Lobotomy 4 Recurring Nightmare 4 Survival of the Fittest 2 Scroll Rack 6 cards

Lands 3 City of Brass 8 Forest 1 Gemstone Mine 2 Karplusan Forest 2 Reflecting Pool 1 Swamp 2 Underground River 2 Undiscovered Paradise 1 Volrath's Stronghold 22 cards Sideboard 4 Boil 2 Dread of Night 3 Emerald Charm 1 Hall of Gemstone 2 Phyrexian Furnace 2 Pyroblast 1 Staunch Defenders 15 cards

I actually broke down and bought the Survivals a while back.  However, I have only one Recurring Nightmare and just one Undiscovered Paradise.  If I had a spare $100 for cards, I'd get a Jace II first.  A playset of (Recurring Nightmare) is way down the list.  This was a great Survival deck, back in its day, but even if I play Survival in Legacy, I would never need four Recurring Nightmares.

Squirrel Opposition

Eugene Harvey, US Nats, 2002

Creatures 4 Birds of Paradise 3 Flametongue Kavu 3 Llanowar Elves 4 Merfolk Looter 4 Wild Mongrel 18 cards Other Spells 2 Call of the Herd 4 Circular Logic 4 Deep Analysis 3 Fire/Ice 4 Opposition 4 Squirrel Nest 21 cards

Lands 7 Forest 5 Island 3 Karplusan Forest 2 Shivan Reef 4 Yavimaya Coast 21 cards Sideboard 1 Aura Graft 1 Call of the Herd 1 Flametongue Kavu 4 Gainsay 3 Jade Leech 2 Static Orb 2 Unnatural Selection 1 Upheaval 15 cards

This one I plan on buying.   I have most of the maindeck, but I haven't forced myself to buy sideboard stuff like Jade Leech. Once again, the Circular Logics are coming through, and most of the other cards are relatively inexpensive.  Upheaval and Call of the Herd are so cheap!  I remember playing these decks, back in the day, and paying well over $20 apiece for the paper versions of these cards.  In any case,  Squirrel Opp's matchup against Chapin 5color Blood is one I would really prefer to play out online.  We will see.

Looking at the cards more closely, the deck has a lot of classic cards.  The painlands are not all that useful anymore - Wizards has printed a lot of multicolored lands that are far better  than the old painlands.  On the other hand, my "never trade lands" policy means I have them anyway.  Most of the other cards are must haves - either because they are classic staples (e.g. Birds of Paradise), staples because they do something  unique  (e.g. Squirrel Nest and Opposition), or are cards that came in sets I had to buy for other reasons (e.g. Flametongue Kavu was in the Jace vs. Chandra set that was the only online source for Daze.)

Finally, one last deck.

Stompy

Matt Linde, Worlds, 2001

Creatures 4 Albino Troll 4 Elvish Lyrist 4 Llanowar Elves 4 Pouncing Jaguar 4 River Boa 2 Uktabi Orangutan 4 Wild Dogs 26 cards Other Spells 4 Cursed Scroll 4 Rancor 4 Giant Growth 12 cards

Lands 14 Forest 4 Gaea's Cradle 4 Treetop Village 22 cards Sideboard 3 Choke 2 Constant Mists 1 Hurricane 2 Overrun 3 Thran Foundry 2 Uktabi Orangutan 2 Weatherseed Treefolk 15 cards

This is a very cheap deck.  It contains cards like Giant Growth!  I have nearly the entire deck online.  (Okay, Thran Foundry is Urza's Destiny, but also irrelevant in the UST.)   All I really need are two more Gaea's Cradles.  However, I am sitting on a small pile of Urza's Saga and Urza's Legacy packs, waiting for the NIX TIX draft queues.  I also expect to play a bunch of Urza's block Limited once Urza's Destiny appears online.  I'm hesitant to buy the last two Cradles until I see if I can open them.  I will also wait to see whether Stompy can beat Sabre Bargain - a solid combo deck from back in the day.  I'll bang the paper decks together, first, and buy the Cradles when and if Stompy gets into a match that can be played online.

Someday, I will have the Cradles.  They are just a whole lot of fun.  If you have never played decks like Angry Hermit or Stompy, you have no idea.  

For me, the Cradles have value because I will put them into fun and casual decks.  However, they may well have monetary value due to be played in Legacy.   Maybe.  On the other hand, most old cards have potential value because they could be reprinted.  Gaea's Cradle is on the restricted list, meaning that it will never been be reprinted. 

For me, Cradles have value because I want them.  In the end, that's all that matters.  Moreover, speaking as a professional economist, the summation of the valuation of cards across all buyers defines value, so that is still all that matters.

Once again, I will be hanging out in the UST room, and looking for opponents.  I just won't be online much this weekend.  I'll be attending / running paper M11 prereleases.

PRJ

"one million words" on MTGO