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By: dolemiteX, dolemiteX
Dec 18 2008 10:43pm
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Raredrafting 101 - 4 Easy Steps to infinite money
 
 
Who here likes money?!
 
(Crowd goes wild)
 
That's what I thought. Everyone loves the green (not the magic color that sucks). With my simple 4 step program, you can stop shelling out ticket after hard-earned ticket and start living the rich and fabulous life of an infinite MTGO drafter.
 
Er…Hello everyone! My name is dolemiteX. You probably know me because I'm super famous. I'm a relatively long time player who at any given time can be found in literally any room that MTGO has to offer. I enjoy drafting, playing casual 2hg, wasting countless hours in /join auction (though not so much anymore (sad panda)), and goofing around with funky stuff like Tribal, Vanguard, and Pauper. I also really like using parentheticals (in case you hadn't noticed).
 
As you can probably tell by the title of this article, I'm here to give you the skinny on raredrafting in hopes of making your wallet fat. Not just how to do it (hint: it's the gold one) or when to do it, but also when not to do it, and how properly doing so can enormously stretch your drafting budget.
 
First things first; which format is the most conducive to raredrafting? Is it the most recent set, featuring the latest bomb planeswalker that everyone and their 2hg partner wants? Is it the poorly designed set that has the uber expensive duals? Or maybe it's the set with the rabbits with the big, sharp, pointy teeth? Could this paragraph possibly have any more rhetorical questions?
 
Okay, so you finally decide that it's triple Shards of Alara draft. Wrong! Okay, it's not exactly a cardinal sin to be wrong about that, but in my opinion it's pretty damn close. I mean, if you really like the format and/or you need to practice for an upcoming PTQ or some such nonsense, then by all means have at it. But if you want to maximize your value then I'm here to tell you that there are other avenues that most people don't care to explore (because they already did).
 
Aside from ancient formats such as MVW (which I love by the way), the best value you're going to find lies within the sets that are still in standard, but that are not the most recent set. As of right now we are in a unique situation because we have two such draft formats: LLM and SSE. (10th edition is automatically tossed out the window due to it being a ridiculous 14 tickets per set). Normally you only have one such format, like TPF when Lorwyn came out, but WoTC decided to pull a fast one on us and make a 4 set block! It's the end of Magic I tells you!
 
What this means for all of us in Gold-expansion-symbol-land is that each set (especially the second, smaller sets) was drafted less than the sets in a normal, three set block were. Let me try to explain.
 
WoTC releases a new set roughly every 3-4 months. Time Spiral came out online in October of 2006, and TTT was drafted for 4 months. Planar Chaos came out in February of 2007 and TTP was drafted for 3 months. Future Sight came out in May of 2007 and TPF was drafted for 5 months, but was interrupted by the coming of 10th edition in July. Even so, you can clearly see that there will be far more Time Spiral cards floating around than either Planar Chaos or Future Sight, which will significantly devalue even the best of rares. If you were around during this time then you are probably aware of how worthless most Time Spiral cards became, even with redemption being available. There were a few money cards in Planar Chaos, but not many to speak of. In Future Sight, however, watch out!
 
Looking at the numbers, it is easy to see why Time Spiral cards were so undervalued compared to its succeeding sets. Of all the TSP block cards that are now available, TSP itself makes up roughly 64% of the total card pool. Planar Chaos contributes 22%, while Future Sight comprises only 14%. That means there are 4.5 times as many TSP cards in existence as FUT cards. No wonder!
 
Aside
 
I am, for simplicity's sake, discounting the comparatively minimal amount of TPF drafting that occurred after Lorwyn debuted, as well as sealeds, packs busted, etc. The numbers above came from simply counting how many months the set was the latest available to draft and also what portion of the format it was. For example, TSP was 3/3 of TTT for 4 months, then 2/3 of TTP for 3 months, then 1/3 of TPF for 5 months. So it adding up the the portions gives you a total of 23/36 packs opened were TSP, 8/36 were PLC, and 5/36 were FUT. The numbers were then rounded.
 
End Aside
 
In fact, the same is universally true of all third sets. Some have argued that they just put better cards into third sets, and that that’s at least a part of why third set cards are generally worth more, but it can't be denied that the scarcity of those cards greatly affects how much value they possess.
 
Lorwyn block was, however, a bit different. LLL was drafted for 4 months and LLM was drafted for 3 months. Then, as expected, almost everyone stopped drafting Lorwyn. Shadowmoor came out and SSS was drafted for 3 months and then SSE was drafted for...2 months?! It is easy to see why Eventide, as of this moment, is almost as valuable overall as Future Sight was when Mr. Tarmogoyf was a $40 card.
 
Based on mtgotraders.com’s current prices, the average Eventide rare is worth roughly 2.5 tickets. The big daddy is of course Figure of Destiny, which fetches 33 tickets by its little 8/8 flying, first strike lonesome.
 
But, now that Shards of Alara is out and everyone is busy drafting horrible manabases, SSE is the ugly girl in the corner with no date. But take off those glasses and toss aside that headgear and you'll see that underneath she's a genuine Serra Angel. That is why SSE is the absolute best draft format for its value right now.
 
The point I'm making isn't just that you should be drafting SSE if you want to maximize your drafting ticket, but that once a set is no longer the latest to be released, the draft value goes up enormously. Packs are generally cheaper and cards slowly begin to rise in value as more constructed players need them while next to none are being opened in limited events.
 
As for myself, I almost never draft sets as soon as they are available anymore. The most obvious reason is that I can't afford to. I am what I consider to be an above average limited player, but I am admittedly somewhat of a slow learner. To the best of my knowledge, I am not mentally handicapped, but I sure am stubborn about my card evaluations, and I'd rather have "the pros" figure out what's good and then translate it to me so that I can then swoop in and steal me some little kids' tickets.
 
With that out of the way, let’s get down to it...When should you be raredrafting?
 
Some packs you rip open, thumb frantically to the rare (in a digital sense)…only to find something putrid like Immortal Coil waiting for you. Naturally you tear it in half and walk out of the store (again, in a digital sort of way). But then there are those rare occasions when you feel like Charlie Bucket with Grandpa Joe’s last silver dollar. You just know there is a Figure of Destiny in this pack, because dammit, you deserve it. And sure enough, even though you’re drafting triple Coldsnap, there is everyone’s favorite Kithkin staring happily back at you. And it’s foil too! Oh happy day!
 
But then again, everyone knows to take the $30 card when you’re fortunate enough to open it. But what about those times that don’t make you wince and cry or otherwise send you into a euphoric frenzy, but instead leave you scratching your head as to what is going to give you the most amount of value when the dust has settled and the draft is over. Sure you went 0-3, but if you have 4 rares worth $3 each, and you got to play some Magic, what’s wrong with that? Muffin!
 
Some people call this your EV, or Expected Value. That is to say, in the long run, what will be of more value to you? This Oblivion Ring that will always be good when you draw and cast it, and may help you win games that you wouldn’t otherwise, or this Wanderwine Hub that will always be $3 in your pocket, no matter how the rest of the draft goes. (Sorry for jumping around formats, but if you want to be a consummate raredrafter like me, you have to be a wayfarer).
 
For me, the answer is: take the rare. The truth is, be they a self-proclaimed raredrafter or not, everyone has their own personal threshold. Everyone has the designated point at which they say, “I can’t pass this, it's worth too much.” For me, when I’m drafting online, it is generally 1 ticket. For you, it may not be so specifically defined, but in the back of your head, you know what you will and will not pass. For Werebear, it is 7 cards in the graveyard. To each his own.
 
Now there are a number of reasons, some of which previously stated, as to why you wouldn’t want to raredraft. Maybe you are in the top 8 of a Premier Event, or you just want to get a feel for the set. If you are a hardcore drafter and just want to win some pride, then by all means go for it. There’s certainly nothing wrong with that. If you’re in the top 8 of a Pro Tour, I’d actually suggest passing on the raredraft. But then again, it’s all relative. If there’s a mint Beta Black Lotus in the pack, I think one measly little removal spell will understand if you ship it along.
 
The trick is all in defining your parameters. Your experience and familiarity with the format you are drafting is key in setting those parameters. However, I do feel that no matter your skill in any given format, when the tough decision comes along, you are almost always best served with the raredraft. For example, if you have no idea what you are doing, and will likely lose the first round anyway, you might as well pick up a decent rare and shave some of the potential losses. Conversely, if you know the format extremely well, then you can sacrifice a decent pick in order to increase your potential winnings. After all, a powerful deck that dominates a draft but has no money cards will get you the same amount of prize packs as a deck that barely squeaks out 3 wins but has 5 nice rares in the sideboard.
 
For me, I know I definitely feel more comfortable when I have half my money back before the rounds even start. The decks lacking in power are also generally more of a challenge to win with, an aspect which I also happen to enjoy.
 
There is a definite art to raredrafting, which is perhaps why it’s so hard to quantify which is the best overall pick at times; the one that will give you the best EV. Some people don’t care either way. They may pass up every opportunity to raredraft that comes their way and just pick the best card for their deck, or they may take every junk rare they see without giving consideration to what will give them the best value. The real answer is: make your own rules. Do what makes you happy. But the point of this article is to get you to maybe stop and ask yourself why it is you do what you do while drafting.
 
With that said, I wish the best of luck to you all. May all of your rares be the stuff of legends!
 
(But don’t stop passing me the good stuff)
 
Thanks for reading,
 
dolemiteX
 
 
 
Bonus:
 
4 Easy Steps to Infinite Money
1)    Take the Rare
2)    Laugh at the person to your right as you tell them how much money they just passed you
3)    ???
4)    Profit!

11 Comments

by Anonymous(Unregistered) 77.96.101.31 (not verified) at Mon, 12/29/2008 - 20:08
Anonymous(Unregistered) 77.96.101.31's picture

there are 80 rares in med 2, not 50, so chances of hitting a dual are less than 1 in 3 drafts, nearer 1 in 5

by Anonymous(Unregistered) 72.179.1.5 (not verified) at Mon, 12/29/2008 - 20:19
Anonymous(Unregistered) 72.179.1.5's picture

That's correct, my mistake. The duals have dropped some, but if you enjoy the gameplay, then it is still a pretty decent deal.

Thank you! by Anonymous(Unregistered) 72.226.156.74 (not verified) at Mon, 12/22/2008 - 15:03
Anonymous(Unregistered) 72.226.156.74's picture

This article was extremely well written for someone like myself new to drafting and looking to more get a return then play to win. I started drafting SSE today and so far have been getting great pulls or stuff I can use passed and keeping watch on value. It also holds true what you were saying that the better cards actualy do make a better deck sometimes as so far out of 6 drafts I've placed first in 4 of them and not have had to pay for a single draft minus the initial 3 packs!!!

by Anonymous(Unregistered) 66.229.53.141 (not verified) at Sat, 12/20/2008 - 16:27
Anonymous(Unregistered) 66.229.53.141's picture

Leaving out step 3 is a joke, referencing the underpants gnomes from South Park.

by Anonymous(Unregistered) 76.108.243.173 (not verified) at Sat, 12/20/2008 - 21:11
Anonymous(Unregistered) 76.108.243.173's picture

Yeah, I know the joke. :)

Classic? by Katastrophe at Sun, 12/21/2008 - 18:56
Katastrophe's picture

How about MED2 or Tempest? I'm a classic fan and I hate that these sets aren't drafted as otfen. (Which makes them expensive. Although, I think it's really the lack of leagues that messes that up.)

Assume that I'm the worst limited player ever. What's my EV on drafting a classic set? I calculated it myself and I got a negative number. Which isn't surprising. But I wasn't taking commons, uncommons, or foils into account either.

by dolemiteX at Sun, 12/21/2008 - 19:36
dolemiteX's picture

MED2 is actually fine. Your odds of ripping a dual worth 20ish is roughly 1/3 drafts (50 rares in set, 5 duals, 1/10, and 9 packs opened every 3 drafts).

I didn't include MED2 because frankly I think the gameplay is god awful and didn't want to subject anyone to that kind of torture. There are a couple other decent rares, but overall it's probably worse than Eventide.  If you don't get a dual (and maybe Necro), then you're just there mostly for the gameplay.

Tempest will be worth it in a few months I think. Right now the market is too saturated, as it always it just after the release.

One of the big things I maybe should have mentioned is the cost of the packs. This varies, but the fact that SSE (nix tix aside) goes for about 9-10 tix per set and MED2 goes for 13 or so makes a huge amount of difference. The higher the cost of the packs, the less valuable it is to raredraft.

10th edition is a good example. Rather than rardrafting in 4322s, 10th is good for 84s. You have so much more to win with a good deck since the packs are 5 each, on top of the fact that the rares aren't worth much. Doing 10th 4322 is suicide, but if you're good enough 84s can be very nice.  

by KommisMar at Sat, 12/20/2008 - 12:43
KommisMar's picture

Leaving out step 3 kind of removes a lot of the potential interest of this article. I still thought it was an interesting read, but the thing is that a lot of newer players get the idea early on, looking at the book values of the cards, that if they just draft rares, they can play for free. However, their hopes are quickly dashed when they go into their first trade with a bot and realize that their "three dollar rares" are only worth .33 tix unless they managed to crack a pack and get a money card - and if it isn't a money card, other players probably aren't interested in buying it, either. For them, the reality is that the only way to play for free is to win consistently.

So, for those people, I would have liked to see something in the article about how to maximize your profits when rare drafting. The article contains a few nice tips but it doesn't really explain how to do it.

best pass ever by slicy(Unregistered) 71.205.92.102 (not verified) at Fri, 12/19/2008 - 12:16
slicy(Unregistered) 71.205.92.102's picture

I did have someone pass me a figure of destiny.  I kept looking at it.  Then, after I cleaned my pants, I took it and happily went on with the rest of the draft.  It was in a 4-3-2-2 as well.  Weird.

by FatManinAlittlecoat(Unregistered) 76.109.219.20 (not verified) at Fri, 12/19/2008 - 09:04
FatManinAlittlecoat(Unregistered) 76.109.219.20's picture

Don't you always get pissed off though when I get the dreadnought, Vicki gets a foil Nullrod and you get a dark ritual!

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dungdung's picture

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