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By: romellos, A. Atasoy
Mar 16 2015 11:00am
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   Hello everyone. Last week, I went through the financial value of the first week spoilers. Today, I'm going to review all the rest of White, Blue, Black and Red cards with a financial perspective. And as a different from the first week review, I will also widely evaluate some uncommon and common cards that have the potential to make an impact in Standard and maybe in Modern formats.

This is the third of final episode of our Tarkir journey and after that we are going to witness to the Origins stories and we will fight for Zendikar. Now, we have lots of solid ideas to work on. As a fact, the new Standard meta will heavily effect from the new Dragons of Tarkir cards and we will be prepared for them. On the other hand, Magic Origins continues to be a complete mystery. At least, Battle for Zendikar gives us some clues about the expectations.     

Now, let's jump into the pool of new possibilities...

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit  Kazandu Blademaster

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit is a pure support card for White Weenie type strategies with her bolstering trigger. She is decent on the curve, but not inspiring as Thalia, Guardian of Thraben is for the Death and Taxes decks.

So, we have to find the right deck for Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit, where we can fully utilize her linear style. Currently, WB Warriors is the closest thing for such a deck. On the other hand, the first Zendikar block had two different White Weenie approaches from Ally and Kor Soldier tribes. And among them, the return of Ally tribe would just make Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit amazing with the +1/+1 synergy of the Allies. My initial price estimation for Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit will be around 0.25-0.40 tix for the next four or five months. Based on the Ally possibility, we may easily see a sharp spike at her price.

Hidden Dragonslayer

Hidden Dragonslayer is very well positioned to see main deck play more than the rest of the members of this megamorph cycle. Because, Hidden Dragonslayer doesn't care about to be at the control side. Just play with him aggressively within the tempo and eventually, an opportunity will emerge to use his megamorph for Reprisal bonus. I don't think, there will be ever a shortage to find a target in this and next Standard season; Siege Rhino, Whisperwood Elemental, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Dragons, more new Dragons and Eldrazi.

My price expectation for Hidden Dragonslayer will be between 0.35 to 0.50 tix.

Gleam of Authority 

Gleam of Authority is a powerful card with such synergy, Vigilance and bolster ability. Unfortunately, it is also very hard to find the right home for this card. Currently, there is a bolster theme under G/W colors, but it is not much worth to spend your energy and U/W Heroic decks are like to act as a  lone wolf. So, that brings us to upcoming Magic Origins and Battle for Zendikar sets. And among them, Zendikar gives me a glimpse of hope. Until then, Gleam of Authority will be a bulk card with 0.05 tix value.

Myth Realized  Tarmogoyf

We all heard the stories about how Tarmogoyf was under ten dollar and it was underestimated it at first, due to some uncertainty factors. And, why do I open this topic again?  

Because, this is a very familiar situation. And also, I strongly believe that, Myth Realized is one of the TOP FIVE cards in Dragons of Tarkir set that has a high chance to see play in Modern or in Eternal formats. It is true that, Myth Realized has no evasion and dies to most of the spot removals like; Abrupt Decay or Path to Exile. The same facts are also true for Tarmogoyf or Gurmag Angler.

Their similarities are only up to this point. As, Myth Realized needs a specific deck building approach with tons of noncreature spells. In that regard, it will be more efficient within the Delver or Esper Delve type decks. There, I can easily imagine Myth Realized teamed up with Delver of Secrets, Young Pyromancer, Monastery Mentor, Tarmogoyf, Nimble Mongoose, Tasigur, the Golden Fang or even Gurmag Angler. In Standard, Myth Realized has a potential to see play in Jeskai Burn/ Token, Boros or even in U/W Control decks as a finisher.

No matter how strong it is, in the right deck. In the end, Myth Realized is a card with niche application. And that fact, crops its value a lot. I think, the price of Myth Realized will be around 0.50 to 0.75 tix.

Secure the Wastes   

Secure the Wastes is a simple, yet powerful enough to see Standard play in multiple decks at the same time. Secure the Wastes can be whatever we wanted it to be; a finishing touch in the U/W Control deck, a combo piece in Jeskai Ascendancy, or an extra Raise the Alarm in Tokens deck. Also, don't forget about the endless hunger of Butcher of the Horde. I expect to see Secure the Wastes, between 0.75 to 1.00 tix ranges.

Surge of Righteousness  Valorous Stance

Surge of Righteousness is a traditional White hoser card against the Black and Red colors. Celestial Purge would be too strong here, instead of it. Overall, Surge of Righteousness is still playable in the current Standard meta. Yet, I don't think it is good enough to dethrone Valorous Stance.

Contradict  Ojutai’s Command  Silumgar’s Command

Contradict is basically a Dismiss with five CMC and at common rarity, which would be fine in a different time and place. In my opinion, its existence in this set, creates a contradiction over Ojutai’s Command and Silumgar's Command. What an irony.

Dragonlord’s Prerogative  Blessed Reincarnation

Dragonlord’s Prerogative is just the good & old Opportunity, we all know. I don't think it will be ever relevant, until Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise rotates. Until then, a bulk rare with 0.05 tix price tag.

Blessed Reincarnation may seem as a double Reality Shift, actually this card is much worse than it. A limited only card with a bulk future.

Clone Legion

Clone Legion is a card that may only see few play in casual decks. And, I not even sure about it. A bulk mythic card with 0.35 to 0.50 tix price estimation.   

Icefall Regent  Dungeon Geists

Icefall Regent is another Dragon card that will only shine in limited formats. I know, Icefall Regent is a very similar card to Dungeon Geists. But in tempo, the difference between four and five CMC is a lot. It will be a bulk card with 0.05 tix price value.

Mirror Mockery  Illusory Gains  Profaner of the Dead

Long story short, Mirror Mockery, Illusory Gains and Profaner of the Dead are just bulk rare cards with 0.03 tix price tag. Nothing more.

Living Lore

I don't want to write anything about that, Living Lore will be a bulk card. Because, it is so hilarious. The more you think about its potential, the more it becomes playable; how good it is with Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise. Or, even Stoke the Flames is fine...

Anticipate  Silumgar’s Scorn  Encase in Ice

Anticipate is going to be our new premier card drawing spell, together with Dig Through Time. Anticipate may not be Impulse, nor Telling Time. Yet, it is close enough to support various of different deck strategies. Anticipate is our best option for a cheap library manipulation, until we get something better.

Speaking of Impulse. Here is another good example about, how Silumgar’s Scorn is not a Counterspell, but a Force Spike most of the times. I know, Dragon clause makes this card so exciting. And I hope, I will be wrong about it.

I like Encase in Ice. Simple and a few words. It is a cheap and efficient option for Standard Control, Jeskai Burn or Mono Blue devotion decks. And you can play with Encase in Ice in main deck, even without any concerns about whether it will find a valid target or not.

Blood-Chin Fanatic  Mardu Strike Leader  Arashin Foremost

Blood-Chin Fanatic is the third Warrior lord at three CMC range that enables different Warrior tribal strategies. Syphon type ability can be a good, when combined with Bloodsoaked Champion. On the other hand, Mardu Strike Leader and Arashin Foremost present more aggression and tempo play. My price estimation for Blood-Chin Fanatic will be around 0.15 to 0.30 tix.

Corpseweft  Foul Renewal

Corpseweft and Foul Renewal are limited only cards with few applications besides that. If Corpseweft could also exile creature cards from an opponent's graveyard, we would be talking about a different story. Two more bulk cards with 0.03 tix value.

Hedonist’s Trove  Yawgmoth's Agenda

My first thought about Hedonist’s Trove was, whether it can be relevant as Yawgmoth's Agenda was back then. Basically, Hedonist’s Trove is just the reverse version of it with an extra two mana downgrade. Yet, we are playing in an era with Delve cards. Another 0.05 tix bulk rare for the drafts.

Damnable Pact 

Damnable Pact is Sign in Blood variant card that, we may mostly want to include to our Commander decks. Generally, Damnable Pact is decent, but not good enough for Standard constructed, where we can play with Sign in Blood, Read the Bones or Abzan Charm instead. My price expectation for Damnable Pact will be 0.05 tix.

Pitiless Horde  Juzám Djinn

At base, Pitiless Horde is a very strong creature with 5/3 body for only three CMC. I feel like, this is going to be another Juzam Djinn case for the history books. My conservative price estimation will be between 0.10 to 0.25 tix ranges.  

Ultimate Price  Self-Inflicted Wound 

It is good to have Ultimate Price back in Standard once again. It may not hit everything, yet there will be still plenty of targets for it at every existing deck. Ultimate Price saw a main deck play during the Standard seasons with Return to Ravnica block and history will just repeat itself.  

Self-Inflicted Wound is another cheap and effective Black removal option against the Green and White colors. Basically, Self-Inflicted Wound is a conditional edict effect that can be very useful within the tempo and damage racing.

Berserkers’ Onslaught  Volcanic Vision  Crater Elemental

Berserkers’ Onslaught and Volcanic Vision are pure bulk rare cards with 0.03 tix price tag. On the other hand, Crater Elemental seems as a very interesting card to try at G/R colored decks. Especially with the possibility to combine Crater Elemental and Assault Formation is intriguing. Regardless of its casual potentials, Crater Elemental will be a bulk rare.

Commune with Lava  Outpost Siege

Commune with Lava is a mass Elkin Bottle enabler for the Red devotion or Big Red type decks, which gives us the opportunity to cast it at the end of our opponent's turn. Then, play all these exiled cards with Commune with Lava, during our turn. This is a Red mage's Stroke of Genius in wonderland.

Unfortunately, I don't expect anything serious from Commune with Lava at Standard constructed, when there are better and much efficient options around, like; Outpost Siege or Chandra, Pyromaster. My price estimation for this card will be around 0.15 to 0.25 tix.

Descent of the Dragons  Hellion Eruption  Dragonshift

Descent of the Dragons is a tricky card to evaluate. When I look at it, I see an improved Hellion Eruption that gives 4/4 Flying Dragons instead. On the other hand, Descent of the Dragons also gives us an option to destroy any of the target creatures our opponents control. I can easily imagine some situations, where this option can be useful .

Regardless of all these points, Hellion Eruption or Dragonshift were never a serious win condition during their Standard days. And based on these facts, I don't see a deck in Standard format that may want to play with Descent of the Dragons at six CMC range. My price expectation will be around 1.00 to 1.50 tix.

Dragon Whisperer

Dragon Whisperer is a perfect addition to the Mono Red devotion decks as a cheap creature at two CMC range with two extra Red devotion points for Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx. Dragon Whisperer's flying and firebreathing abilities are both relevant at damage racing. And her Dragon summoning ability will just lock the game, when we enable the Formidable requirement. It is a win more ability. Yet, there can be some situations, where an extra 4/4 flying body is more useful than a firebreathing Dragon Whisperer. 

Dragon Whisperer is an efficient creature with a low CMC curve. And all of these qualifications give her a good chance for Standard constructed. I think, Dragon Whisperer will be positioned around 3.50 to 4.50 tix ranges.

Ire Shaman 

Like Hidden Dragonslayer, Ire Shaman is also pushing at the aggressive side with a very cheap megamorph option for a single Elkin Bottle activation. Ire Shaman's spell bonus is the least thrilling one, yet I can't deny its potential in the right deck. My price estimation for Ire Shaman will be between 0.15 to 0.30 tix ranges.

Roast  Rending Volley

I'm really excited about Roast as this card is a premier removal option for the Red color. It will be very useful against the Abzan, G/W or G/R devotion and G/B constellation decks. Roast may even see some Modern play as a replacement for Flame Slash in U/R Splinter Twin decks.

And Rending Volley will be another replacement for Combust in Modern format, where one extra mana matters.

Dragon Fodder  Twin Bolt

What can I say. I really surprised to see a reprint of Dragon Fodder in this set. There is definitely a push for Token strategies in the whole Tarkir block. First, we get; Raise the Alarm and Hordeling Outburst. Now, Secure the Wastes and Dragon Fodder. I will definitely give a second chance to the R/W or Jeskai Tokens deck, during upcoming weeks.

I'm not sure, whether Twin Bolt will be a relevant removal option in the Standard. Yet, I don't completely discarding it. Because, that potential is what Fire/Ice presented us in the past. If you ever played with the Fire side, you will understand what I'm saying. Personally, I like Twin Bolt and I'm looking forward to test it against G/x or Tokens decks.

 

WRAP UP:

Next week, I will finalize my Dragons of Tarkir financial review with the third part, where I will evaluate all the rest Green, Multicolored, Artifact and Land cards. I will also re-evaluate some of the Standard cards from previous Tarkir sets that may shine within new meta. As always, please feel free to let me know your comments.

See you next time in the "Days of Standard" series...

19 Comments

I am going to say "nay" to by Paul Leicht at Mon, 03/16/2015 - 13:10
Paul Leicht's picture

I am going to say "nay" to Myth Realized bottoming at .5. It is very good in a Narset style deck. Lots of instant speed control cards, Mastery of the Unseen, I suspect it will be a staple Standard card for a long time. I bet it never dips below a tix.

Paul, thank you for your by romellos at Mon, 03/16/2015 - 15:07
romellos's picture

Paul, thank you for your comments.

Myth Realized is definitely one of the MUST cards in this set. It is not like Im underestimating its power, but financial value of MTGO cards, especially Standard cards are so fickle. A 1-2 tix card can easily be a 0.01 tix within few weeks. And opposite is also true. I bought my Mastery of the Unseen copies at 0.01 tix during prerelease and sold them around 2 tix/ each at its peak. Now this card is around 1 tix. And it will be 0.05 tix after Theros rotates.

Why I classify Myth Realized as a 0.50 to 0.75 tix card? Because lots of people are underestimating its potential. This was my initial assesment and I can be wrong about it. 1.00 to 1.50 tix value is also fair for this card. But it can also see below 0.50 tix range within next 6 months. All depends on its immediate impact at any of the Standard, Modern or Legacy tournaments.

I think foul renewal will by NinjaDazed at Mon, 03/16/2015 - 13:31
NinjaDazed's picture

I think foul renewal will find a place in alot of decks cause its 2 for 1

Thank you for your comments. by romellos at Mon, 03/16/2015 - 15:15
romellos's picture

Thank you for your comments.

I highly doubt that Foul Renewal will ever see a constructed play in Standard. It is just too much conditional and not consistent most of the times. Yes, it can be good in Abzan midrange type decks, yet Utter End is better at that range.

when I look at this card I by NinjaDazed at Wed, 03/18/2015 - 21:38
NinjaDazed's picture

when I look at this card I see it's place not in abzan but in a sultai type deck, combo'd with tasigur or the like

You might have a point about by MrWishyWashy at Mon, 03/16/2015 - 17:24
MrWishyWashy's picture

You might have a point about Myth Realized, but its probably only going to be good in Legacy/Vintage and not Modern. Modern is too fast right now for something like that to be any good. Myth Realized needs both mana and time for it to do anything, which means that a grindy format is where it would shine.

Just my opinion on your by bdgp009 at Mon, 03/16/2015 - 20:10
bdgp009's picture

Just my opinion on your review of Dragonlord's Prerogative since you have said it won't be relevant until Dig and Treasure rotate you might as well said it won't be relevant because they are in the same block. Plus I love the chances of Mirror Mockery in a control deck since you can also cast it on enemy creatures.

I mean Dragonlord's by romellos at Mon, 03/16/2015 - 20:23
romellos's picture

I mean Dragonlord's Prerogative will be Standard legal for 6-7 more months after Dig & Treasure gone. As, Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged sets will rotate out during Spring 2016 and Dragons of Tarkir & Magic Origins is going to rotate out during Autumn 2016.

Romellos by Dwarven_Pony at Tue, 03/17/2015 - 13:04
Dwarven_Pony's picture
5

Dear Romellos,

Thank you as always for your helpful analysis. I think you have hit the nail on the head.

May I ask a side question to you: In your opinion, do you think that THOUGHTSEIZE (Khans version) will go up or down after it rotates out of Standard? Supply will be less because it will no longer be drafted, but demand will also be left because most of those players will probably not move into Modern, and might sell them off a couple of weeks post-rotation. Many thanks :)

Thank you very much for your by romellos at Tue, 03/17/2015 - 17:29
romellos's picture

Thank you very much for your comments. These are just my personal guesses merged with the facts and some intuitions. I can still be so wrong for some cards at my evaluations.

I would expect Thoughtseize to fall to 4.50-5.00 tix range during Theros' rotating out period and slowly recovering to 6.50-7.50 within a year.

As a second scenario, we might see this lowest point at Thoughtseize during MMA 2015 & Magic Origins drafting times and a slightly increased price (5.50-6.00) during rotation.

My advise will be, keep tracking Thoughtseize closely during the Summer period, especially during the MMA 2015 drafts. That time frame might be the lowest for most of the Theros cards (especially, for some mythic & Modern staple rares) rather than the Autumn 2015. Otherwise, %90 of the Theros block rares will hit 0.05 tix range by the end of 2015 year. Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks gave us some valuable lessons about how to evaluate the new trends in the rotation out periods. And in that regard, Theros block is very important to prove or designate the general behaviours based on the power level of whole sets. Theros is not a strong block like the previous two and I'm looking forward to see, how will this reflect to redemption frequency.

Thank you by Dwarven_Pony at Tue, 03/17/2015 - 20:32
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5

Thank you for your helpful thoughts on Thoughtseize. In this case, I will not invest in this card, and I will avoid it like the plague because of the downward trend which may come.

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