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By: Tom Scud, Tom Scudder
Jul 28 2015 12:00pm
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Hi all. Pauper Observed isn't back, but I thought I would crunch some numbers given the announced changes in the daily event structures. Following up on Pete's article from Friday (and mihahitlor's work in the comments), I ran some numbers on the expected values for the new 8-man and daily events, as well as the short daily events for Legacy, Vintage, and Pauper that were announced late last week. The payout for these events is lower than the old daily events except at very low pack prices, and obviously MTGO players are going to have to make their own decisions as to whether they're all right with that.  In the tables below, I will be translating all prizes into "virtual tickets", based on the sale price of packs and a conversion of 10 play points to 1 "ticket" - I'm not going to get into the question of tradeable tickets vs. non-tradeable play points - the purpose of this article is to lay out some numbers to help people make their own determinations. I have also left QPs out of the calculation.

Old Dailies:

Cross-referencing win percentage with per-pack prices:

  2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
45% 3.31 3.64 3.97 4.30 4.63 4.96 5.29 5.62 5.95 6.28
50% 4.38 4.81 5.25 5.69 6.13 6.56 7.00 7.44 7.88 8.31
55% 5.61 6.17 6.73 7.29 7.85 8.41 8.97 9.53 10.09 10.65
60% 7.00 7.70 8.40 9.10 9.80 10.50 11.20 11.90 12.60 13.30
65% 8.54 9.39 10.25 11.10 11.96 12.81 13.67 14.52 15.37 16.23
70% 10.22 11.24 12.27 13.29 14.31 15.33 16.35 17.38 18.40 19.42

In the good old days of 3 ticket packs, you could go infinite without even having a winning record. Nowadays, not so much.

New 12-ticket dailies:

(I have cut the results in half to allow direct comparisons):

  2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
45% 3.39 3.47 3.56 3.64 3.73 3.81 3.90 3.98 4.07 4.15
50% 4.50 4.61 4.73 4.84 4.95 5.06 5.18 5.29 5.40 5.51
55% 5.79 5.93 6.08 6.22 6.37 6.51 6.66 6.80 6.95 7.09
60% 7.26 7.44 7.62 7.80 7.98 8.16 8.35 8.53 8.71 8.89
65% 8.90 9.12 9.34 9.57 9.79 10.01 10.23 10.45 10.68 10.90
70% 10.70 10.97 11.24 11.50 11.77 12.04 12.31 12.57 12.84 13.11

As you can see, a 55% match win rate will let you go "infinite" for any pack prices of 2.4 or greater; 53% goes infinite at 3.2 tickets/pack, 54% goes infinite at 2.8 per pack, and 56% goes infinite at any pack price of 2.0 or greater.

New 8-mans:

  2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
45% 4.16 4.22 4.28 4.34 4.40 4.46 4.52 4.58 4.63 4.69
50% 4.75 4.83 4.90 4.98 5.05 5.13 5.20 5.28 5.35 5.43
55% 5.42 5.51 5.61 5.70 5.80 5.89 5.98 6.08 6.17 6.26
60% 6.19 6.31 6.42 6.54 6.65 6.77 6.88 7.00 7.11 7.23
65% 7.08 7.22 7.36 7.50 7.64 7.78 7.92 8.06 8.20 8.34
70% 8.11 8.27 8.44 8.61 8.77 8.94 9.11 9.27 9.44 9.61

For people with a 50% win rate (and thus for all players), these are somewhat more generous if pack prices remain below 3 1/3. They do not reward above-average play as much as the new (or old) dailies at pretty much any pack price. 

To go infinite in 8-mans, you need to win at 54% at 3.6 tickets per pack, 55% at 3.4, 56% at 3, 57% at 2.6, 58% at 2.4, and 59% at 2.0.

"Short" daily events (Legacy, Vintage, Pauper):

  2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
45% 4.10 4.21 4.21 4.26 4.32 4.37 4.43 4.48 4.53 4.59
50% 4.75 4.83 4.90 4.98 5.05 5.13 5.20 5.28 5.35 5.43
55% 5.45 5.55 5.65 5.75 5.85 5.95 6.05 6.15 6.25 6.35
60% 6.19 6.32 6.45 6.58 6.71 6.84 6.97 7.10 7.23 7.36
65% 6.98 7.15 7.31 7.48 7.64 7.81 7.97 8.14 8.30 8.47
70% 7.83 8.03 8.24 8.44 8.65 8.86 9.06 9.27 9.47 9.68

The reward structure is very close indeed to the new 8-mans (and identical at 50% winning percentage). Above average play is rewarded very slightly more, but not nearly as much as either new or old dailies. To go infinite, you need a 54% win percentage at 3.6 tickets, 55% at 3.2, 56% at 2.8, 57% at 2.6, 58% at 2.2, and 59% at 2.0.

For all of the new structures, the return is not as good as the "old" dailies for any pack price greater than 2.2 (or 2.0 for the new dailies); however, if you assume that this intervention will greatly increase the sale price of packs, things look slightly better. The crossover point is roughly if it increases the average pack price from 2.4 tickets per pack to 3.4 tickets.

Another way of looking at it

While the 12-ticket dailies look very bad next to the old dailies on a per-entry-fee basis, for players who win often enough, their limiting factor is time rather than entry fees. For them, events with payouts scaled to twice the entry fee might be more profitable even if they are worse if scaled to the same entry fee. I went back, returned the 12-ticket dailies to their full values, and calculated the profit (EV-12 for the 12-ticket dailies, EV-6 for the old dailies), and came up with the following. I'm starting the tables at 55% due to the fact that the new dailies are not profitable at lower winning percentages.

Old Dailies:

  2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
55% -.39 0.17 0.73 1.29 1.85 2.41 2.97 3.53 4.09 4.65
60% 1.00 1.70 2.40 3.10 3.80 4.50 5.20 5.90 6.60 7.30
65% 2.54 3.39 4.25 5.10 5.96 6.81 7.67 8.52 9.37 10.23
70% 4.22 5.24 6.27 7.29 8.31 9.33 10.35 11.38 12.40 13.42

 

New Dailies:

  2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8
55% -0.42 -0.13 0.16 0.45 0.74 1.03 1.32 1.61 1.90 2.19
60% 2.52 2.88 3.24 3.60 3.97 4.33 4.69 5.06 5.42 5.78
65% 5.80 6.24 6.69 7.13 7.58 8.02 8.47 8.91 9.35 9.80
70% 9.40 9.94 10.47 11.01 11.54 12.08 12.61 13.15 13.68 14.22

 

As you can see, at low pack values (<3.0), the new dailies become more profitable somewhere between a 55% and 60% winning percentage; as the pack value moves up, the new dailies become less attractive even for high-percentage players. And of course 60 to 65 percent winners will start to accumulate a lot of that value in excess play points, thus either forcing them to play drafts or sealed events (which they may not want to do) or to convert their points to something tradeable by entering-then-dropping from sealed events (I will defer to xger's calculation of 2 cents per play point for this).

There is also the question of whether 60 percent winners under the present system will be able to maintain that percentage in the new dailies. The more punitive environment for average and below-average players is likely to drive those players to the 8-mans, or out of competitive play entirely; lacking those players to compete against, can a 60 percent player maintain that rate? Doubtful.

2 Comments

Thanks by MichelleWong at Thu, 07/30/2015 - 17:02
MichelleWong's picture
5

Thanks for posting these helpful stats. Very useful.

You're welcome! by Tom Scud at Thu, 07/30/2015 - 20:30
Tom Scud's picture

You're welcome!