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By: xger, Xger
May 18 2016 12:00pm
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Not only does Future Sight come loaded with story, the set is quite valuable--three rares are worth more individually than an entire Planar Chaos set! Future Sight also brings one the pseudo-cycle ridiculously powerful two drops: Tarmogoyf. Let's dive in! If you want to jump past the introduction, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here. 

Introduction to the Article Series:

To jump to the set background, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here.

Over the course of this year, Wizards will run flashback drafts that are from the Modern sets. One week for each format. The flashbacks will stop when there is a prerelease or release going on. More info here.

Here is the upcoming schedule:

Format Dates
Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, Future Sight 5/18-5/25
Tenth Edition 5/25-6/1
Triple Lorwyn 6/1-6/8
Lorwyn, Lorwyn, Morningtide 6/8-6/15
Triple Shadowmoor 6/15-6/22
Shadowmoor, Shadowmoor, Eventide 6/22-6/29
Triple Shards of Alara 6/29-7/6
Shards of Alara, Shards of Alara, Conflux 7/6-7/13
Shards of Alara, Conflux, Alara Reborn 7/13-7/20
Tenth Edition 7/20-7/27
Break for Eldritch Moon 7/27-8/17

Wizards has updated the schedule, so these are confirmed dates (they've even included dates beyond what I have here).

First, I will do a fiscal analysis. While a lot of players will play just for the fun of it, knowing what cards are worth something is a good plan. Since none of these formats are competitively valued anymore, there really is no reason to pass on a $30 card. Even if it is terrible and useless in limited. Further, knowing what common and uncommons are worth the effort to sell could be useful.

However, just a rote listing of pricing is only so helpful. A lot of the cards, particularly core sets and the older sets, just don't have the supply to adequately meet demand. That means some of the cards might tank quickly when there is a sudden surge of supply. Some of these sets have probably never had flashbacks, or it has been many years. That means the market reaction might be extreme or subtle. It is also unknown how many cards will enter the system—if the drafts are popular, the effect is greater.

To give the most useful information, I am going to track the value of the sets already given a flashback as well as the time just prior to the flashback. Hopefully this will give some idea of the fiscal value of the flashback draft. Of course, it is still going to be a lottery most of the time.

Second, I will give some brief drafting advice. This will come either from my own experience and memory (if I actively drafted the set) or from what articles I can dredge up. Likely, it will be both, but will probably lean more towards the articles.

With that, let's get started:

Future Sight History and Background:

Future Sight finished the themes of Time Spiral block in glorious fashion. It introduces the first new card type since Mirrodin--Tribal. On top that, an unassuming card mentions another new card type--planeswalker. At this point, there had been no planeswalker cards. Originally, Wizards developed planeswalkers for Future Sight, but upon realizing the potential and the need for heavy development time, planeswalkers were pushed back. But, the reference remained, teasing players at what it could mean. Oh, right, that card is:

tarmogoyf

So, not only is Tarmogoyf the most valuable card in the block, one of the most powerful creatures to exist, it also alludes to a powerful card type that would be instantly popular among players. 

Future Sight is full of interesting cards with interesting stories, but perhaps the best is Steamflogger Boss. An innocent card not meant for anything in particular, Wizards left it in the set and intended it to mostly be a joke. Well, Aaron Forscythe let the world know that, and the players reacted in a completely unsurprising way (at least in hind sight). Players demanded that Wizards make contraptions work and that the Boss take his rightful place among his minions.

steamflogger boss

Normally, I would discuss much more of the bits of the set, but Future Sight's biggest change was with the story. As such, the story section will be much bigger this time, and the other section smaller. If you are alright spoiling the story (if spoilers of something 10 years old even exist), go ahead and click the button!

MTGO V3 went into wide beta around the time Future Sight was on the horizon. Worth became brand manager. Nothing else really happened prior to Future Sight, though Master Editions was announced not too long after Future Sight came out.

Fiscal Value of the Flashback

Prices for the individual cards are from MTGOTraders sell price on Tuesday the 17th. Set trends are from MTG goldfish. 

Future Sight:

Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Tarmogoyf $52.03
Grove of the Burnwillows $39.02
Horizon Canopy $37.90
Magus of the Moon $10.87
Venser, Shaper Savant $6.81
Glittering Wish $6.20
Pact of Negation $5.24
Coalition Relic $4.98
Sliver Legion $4.07
Summoner's Pact $2.88
Top Uncommons
Sword of the Meek $3.87
Aven Mindcensor $2.54
Dryad Arbor $2.44
Tolaria West $1.47
Dakmor Salvage $0.33
Worthwhile Commons
Lumithread Field $0.06
Wrap in Vigor $0.05

Wow, Future Sight is in a completely different world when it comes to fiscal value. Not only are there several rares worth more than the cost of a draft, but there is a good number of valuable uncommons, which really bolsters the pack value. This is by far the most valuable set we've seen, not only in average numbers, but in raw numbers. Future Sight has more than double the value of some sets with about half the cards!

 

This chart shows the inflection point of the rares--here, between the 9th and 10th rares. That means that only 9 rares in the set are priced higher than the average rare ($3.18), which is the highest average rare value yet, and by a large margin. As far as I can tell, there is no special printing and distribution for the futureshifted cards, unlike Time Spiral and Planar Chaos. This makes the calculations straight forward. Here, the average rare value is nearly three times any set we've seen and nearly ten times that of Planar Chaos. While a lot is tied up in the top four cards, there is still a lot of value overall.

A lottery rate of 0% will mean the set is balanced, and 100% will mean a single card accounting for ~70% of the rares total value (70% is an approximation of the percentage of drafts that will not have the top value rare).

Future Sight's Lottery Rate: 90%

The lottery rate is lower than previous sets primarily because there are three lottery cards (four if you count it as anything of the cost of a draft). That means roughly three times as many pods had a lottery rare in them!

Set Trend Pack Value Average Draft Value
Future Sight has dropped about 20%, nearly all from Tarmogoyf. That 20% is more actual value than several sets currently! $3.95 With Commons $5.37
$3.77 Without Commons $4.71
$3.23 Without lottery rares $4.65

Here, lottery rares are the top three. Somewhat surprisingly, the pack value does not drop too much with their removal. Not only are the remaining rares still worth a decent amount, there are several very valuable uncommons to really keep the value high. This also means you are unlikely to find anyone selling the actual packs--just buy in with tix or play points.

Flashback Trends:

  Before Price After Price Percent Change Change Since Last Article
Eighth Edition $101.20 $94.48 -6.6% 3.9%
Blood Moon $35.00 $24.35 -30.4% 14.3%
Mirrodin $94.90 $69.52 -26.7% 3.8%
Oblivion Stone $35.00 $17.40 -50.3% -8.4%
Darksteel $68.60 $52.11 -24.0% 0.2%
Aether Vial $5.60 $6.25 11.6% -8.8%
Fifth Dawn $106.00 $104.31 -1.6% 1.6%
Serum Visions $2.80 $2.53 -9.6% 49.7%
Champions $75.50 $53.77 -28.8% 7.5%
Sensei's Divining Top $3.50 $3.74 6.9% 27.2%
Betrayers $63.20 $44.97 -28.8% 5.0%
Goryo's Vengeance $28.86 $15.36 -46.8% 1.7%
Saviors $61.10 $61.10 0.0% 2.4%
Oboro, Palace in the Clouds $15.50 $8.87 -42.8% 0.9%
Ninth Edition $102.40 $70.61 -31.0% 1.8%
Phyrexian Arena $5.20 $4.73 -9.0% 2.8%
Ravnica $78.20 $59.92 -23.4% 1.5%
Dark Confidant $12.59 $11.87 -5.7% 12.3%
Guildpact $41.60 $31.74 -23.7% 7.8%
Orzhov Pontiff $8.40 $4.97 -40.8% 12.7%
Dissension $74.50 $63.25 -15.1% 4.8%
Infernal Tutor $36.66 $34.83 -5.0% 7.3%
Coldsnap $74.70 $44.64 -40.2% 5.1%
Dark Depths $25.09 $15.27 -39.1% -12.3%
Time Spiral $44.90 $41.75 -7.0% 22.0%
Ancestral Vision $21.01 $19.25 -8.4% 23.2%
Planar Chaos $26.20 20.92 -20.2% N/A
Damnation $14.32 9.98 -30.3% N/A

What's most interesting is the near universal climb from last week. Perhaps it's just a mere correction from the recent Modern decisions. A number of cards are coming close to their original price, which would be a goo, healthy sign for the MTGO economy.

The highs and lows of Serum Visions continue, with a huge increase over last week. Again, I have no idea what is driving such varying changes in that card. All I can think is that Visions has long been a popular speculation target and is commonly picked up during flashbacks for that reason. So, maybe the recent volatility is just the nature of the beast.

Wrap-up

Don't forget to look at articles here on PureMTGO. Here is a search link for Planar Chaos articles. If you go to that link, you'll notice there are a number of old articles, which could be helpful or just interesting reads. Old articles on the draft format: 

  • Here's an article from SCG by Tiago Chan
  • Here's an article from this site, by Pete (One Million Words)

Future Sight has the small set problem--very little impact on block draft. There are powerful cards, but really, just hope for the money!

As always, I appreciate any comments! 

xger

xger21 on MTGO.