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By: xger, Xger
Jun 22 2016 11:00am
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Rounding out this portion of flashbacks, we have Eventide, another dark image set that continued many of the themes of Shadowmoor. Personally, I'm sad there are not triple Eventide flashback drafts--that format was lots of fun. Wizards also revealed some of the story for Eldritch Moon, and to coincide with that, MTGO held 24 hours of Triple Rise of Eldrazi drafts.

Introduction to the Article Series:

To jump to the set background, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here.

Over the course of this year, Wizards will run flashback drafts that are from the Modern sets. One week for each format. The flashbacks will stop when there is a prerelease or release going on. More info here.

Here is the upcoming schedule:

Format Dates
Bonus draft - Triple Rise of Eldrazi 6/20
Shadowmoor, Shadowmoor, Eventide 6/22-6/29
Triple Shards of Alara 6/29-7/6
Shards of Alara, Shards of Alara, Conflux 7/6-7/13
Shards of Alara, Conflux, Alara Reborn 7/13-7/20
Magic 2010 7/20-7/27
Break for Eldritch Moon 7/27-8/17

Wizards has updated the schedule, so these are confirmed dates (they've even included dates beyond what I have here).

First, I will do a fiscal analysis. While a lot of players will play just for the fun of it, knowing what cards are worth something is a good plan. Since none of these formats are competitively valued anymore, there really is no reason to pass on a $30 card. Even if it is terrible and useless in limited. Further, knowing what common and uncommons are worth the effort to sell could be useful.

However, just a rote listing of pricing is only so helpful. A lot of the cards, particularly core sets and the older sets, just don't have the supply to adequately meet demand. That means some of the cards might tank quickly when there is a sudden surge of supply. Some of these sets have probably never had flashbacks, or it has been many years. That means the market reaction might be extreme or subtle. It is also unknown how many cards will enter the system—if the drafts are popular, the effect is greater.

To give the most useful information, I am going to track the value of the sets already given a flashback as well as the time just prior to the flashback. Hopefully this will give some idea of the fiscal value of the flashback draft. Of course, it is still going to be a lottery most of the time.

Second, I will give some very brief drafting advice and provide links to other articles from those better experienced. 

With that, let's get started:

Eventide History and Background:

Eventide finishes out Lorwyn's change to eternal night. The once strong and proud Elves and Kithkin retreat to the safety of their homes, while the less savory fairy tale denizens come out of the woodwork to reign supreme. The primary emphasis in the cards to show this change was shifting from allied-colored hybrids to enemy-colored, focusing on the inherent conflicts between the colors.

endureashling, the extinguisherbloodied ghostdominus of fealty

Eventide continued the heavy use of -1/-1 counters. It also introduced two new abilities: Chroma and Retrace. Chroma will likely never return as it originally was. In Theros, we got Devotion, which was the 'fixed' version of Chroma, vastly improving its popularity. Chroma was not popular to being with, but with the right flavor and mechanic focus, it was vastly different. Retrace is an interesting mechanic, but it has one of Wizards least favorite taboo characteristics: it leads to repetitive gameplay. Further, it was not that well-liked by players or R&D, and so it has a storm scale of 7. 

noxious hatchlingprimalcruxcenn's enlistmentfiery bombardment

Eventide completed many cycles that started in Shadowmoor--the filter lands, hybrid one-drops, the demigods, and the hybrid auras for example. Shadowmoor also had its own cycles, such as the mimics, characteristic retrace spells, and untappers that looked at the color of spells played. Shadowmoor also contains one of the more busted limited cards printed: Figure of Destiny.

divinity of prideoona's graceriverfall mimicfigure of destiny

Shadowmoor also contains some powerful combo enables and solid sideboard options. It also includes some cards that change the rules of the game, one in way not seen before.

nettle sentinelbloom tenderstigma lasherhelix pinnacle

In the world of MTGO, the client finally starts to gain some stability, and Wizards begins talking about future plans. The MTGO mountain revealed that Wizards wanted to start running high profile events on MTGO and fill out the needs of more casual players. Unfortunately, leagues take a seat. 

From the Vault: Dragons releases and MED II comes out as well. MED II finally brought some of the Alpha/Beta/Unlimited Dual Lands to MTGO.

underground seatundra

Fiscal Value of the Flashback

Prices for the individual cards are from MTGOTraders sell price on Tuesday the 21th. Set trends are from MTG goldfish. 

Eventide:

Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Twilight Mire $15.90
Fetid Heath $14.79
Cascade Bluffs $11.49
Rugged Prairie $7.72
Flooded Grove $5.72
Regal Force $4.62
Scarecrone $3.24
Balefire Liege $3.18
Glen Elendra Archmage $3.04
Bloom Tender $2.89
Top Uncommons
Flickerwisp $0.63
Quillspike $0.24
Gilder Bairn $0.12
Wistful Selkie $0.10
Worthwhile Commons
Nettle Sentinel $4.31
Slippery Bogle $1.36
Unmake $0.52
Edge of the Divinity $0.07
Raven's Crime $0.06

Again, Eventide had a decent spread, though most of the value is locked up in the five lands. What's really helpful is the value of some of the commons. Nettle Sentinel, Slippery Bogle, and Unmake are all cards that have good staying power--popular with casual players, great in tournament worthy decks and among the best Pauper cards. My main concern would be that the filter lands' value is more a function of low supply, because Eventide was necessarily opened less and it came at a time of particularly low MTGO player base.

 

This chart shows the inflection point of the rares--here, between the 12th and 13th rares. That means that 12 rares in the set are priced higher than the average rare ($1.80). This set has a good spread and it's important to note that there are only 60 rares in the set, which is why the spread is better. It also gives a good chance of getting a decently valuable card.

A lottery rate of 0% will mean the set is balanced, and 100% will mean a single card accounting for ~70% of the rares total value (70% is an approximation of the percentage of drafts that will not have the top value rare).

Eventide's Lottery Rate: 63%

Eventide has the best rate so far, by a good measure. This is probably at least partially driven by the low amount of Eventide opened--some cards never flooded the market enough to crash the price, so more mediocre cards have more value.

Set Trend Pack Value Average Draft Value
Interestingly, Eventide had a slow climb and then a slow drop, with its current price around the price at announcement time $3.29 With Commons

$5.32

$1.91 Without Commons $3.36
N/A Without lottery rares N/A

Eventide might be the first set where there is arguably a need to pull lottery cards other than rares. The top commons end up heavily boosting the pack value. Hopefully those commons stay at least somewhat decent in price.

Flashback Trends:

  Before Price After Price Percent Change Change Since Last Article
Eighth Edition $101.20 $110.60 9.3% 3.8%
Blood Moon $35.00 $31.46 -10.1% -2.7%
Mirrodin $94.90 $75.79 -20.1% 1.5%
Oblivion Stone $35.00 $15.61 -55.4% 0.5%
Darksteel $68.60 $61.25 -10.7% 1.4%
Aether Vial $5.60 $6.46 15.4% -3.9%
Fifth Dawn $106.00 $110.56 4.3% 4.0%
Serum Visions $2.80 $2.24 -20.0% -1.8%
Champions $75.50 $57.33 -24.1% -0.7%
Sensei's Divining Top $3.50 $2.58 -26.3% -13.7%
Betrayers $63.20 $48.66 -23.0% 8.9%
Goryo's Vengeance $28.86 $16.01 -44.5% 4.0%
Saviors $61.10 $68.24 11.7% 3.1%
Oboro, Palace in the Clouds $15.50 $10.34 -33.3% 2.8%
Ninth Edition $102.40 $82.07 -19.9% -2.2%
Phyrexian Arena $5.20 $4.39 -15.6% -5.0%
Ravnica $78.20 $64.60 -17.4% 1.2%
Dark Confidant $12.59 $10.94 -13.1% 0.3%
Guildpact $41.60 $29.68 -28.7% -8.7%
Orzhov Pontiff $8.40 $2.85 -66.1% -15.2%
Dissension $74.50 $89.69 20.4% 6.8%
Infernal Tutor $36.66 $56.00 52.8% 9.0%
Coldsnap $74.70 $58.58 -21.6% -2.3%
Dark Depths $25.09 $20.39 -18.7% 1.2%
Time Spiral $44.90 $52.83 17.7% 6.8%
Ancestral Vision $21.01 $29.75 41.6% 12.4%
Planar Chaos $26.20 $22.30 -14.9% -5.5%
Damnation $14.32 $10.02 -30.0% -8.9%
Future Sight $203.60 $184.27 -9.5% 2.2%
Grove of the Burnwillows $39.02 $32.77 -16.0% -1.5%
Tenth Edition $104.40 $80.44 -23.0% -2.0%
Crucible of Worlds $25.77 $20.07 -22.1% -7.9%
Lorwyn $78.70 $50.17 -36.3% 2.8%
Thoughtseize $6.45 $5.68 -11.9% 0.4%
Morningtide $99.10 $82.01 -17.2% -3.1%
Scapeshift $30.16 $28.70 -4.8% 1.3%
Shadowmoor $108.40 $75.03 -30.8% N/A
Fulminator Mage $12.62 $10.72 -15.1% N/A

In a good sign, we now have several sets above their pre-flashback value. Of course, some of those sets--Dissension, for instance--are buoyed by a single card gaining a large amount of value. The overall trend for rares is a slow climb, with a notable exception this week of (Orzhov Pointiff:gpt). I have no idea what would cause the new drop, all I can guess is that some of the people holding them finally gave up and sold instead of hoping it would climb again.

Shadowmoor's drop is less than I expected. It is probably one of the sets most constrained by supply, yet it only experienced the typical drop instead of a larger one. It's also surprising how little Fulminator Mage dropped given that there was a new flood of supply. Perhaps people are holding out for the payday in the future under the hope that the mage climbs back to its $20+ value of earlier this year.

Rise of the Eldrazi Bonus Flashback:

So, if you haven't heard yet, Wizards released the Eldritch Moon trailer, which reveals the threat to Innistrad and contains a preview card. If you haven't seen it yet, the video is here. If you just want to find out the threat and get the spoiler, click the box!

The 24-hour flashback provides an interesting test case. Because it was sprung with such little notice, a lot of players probably missed the drafts. Still, such a short time period for such a popular format could have interesting effects. Since the flashback is already over, there is not much point in informing you of the valuable cards. The history and background will come at a later time, so for this week, I'm just going to look at some of the value changes that occurred in one short day. Another issue is that the full effects of the short draft may not be felt by the time I submitted this article. As such, I'll glance over the changes next week and see if it's worth an update.

As you can see, the real plunges come from some of the commons and uncommons. Sea Gate Oracle lost more than 3/4 of its value, for instance. These numbers are based on the MTGGoldfish daily percent change, though I screened any card that started 10 cents or below since those effects would be quite exaggerated (for instance, Coralhelm Commander fell 50% from 4 cents to 2 cents, which could be entirely unrelated to this flashback). The shortness of the flashback means most rares and mythics did not fall all that much.

Name: Starting Value Value after a day Percent of previous value
Rise of the Eldrazi $59.30 $57.64 97.20%
Sea Gate Oracle $0.74 $0.18 24.32%
Forked Bolt $0.33 $0.09 27.27%
Kiln Fiend $0.35 $0.20 57.14%
Devastating Summons $0.53 $0.40 75.47%
Inquisition of Kozilek $3.44 $2.91 84.59%

At least the set as whole hasn't seemed too affected, especially since the full week of RoE flashback is not too long off.

Wrap-up

Don't forget to look at articles here on PureMTGO. Here is a search link for Shadowmoor articles. Oddly, the number of older articles for Eventide is a bit less--maybe another victim of the abysmal state of MTGO at the time--but, feel free to poke around nonetheless. Old articles on the draft format: 

  • Here's an article from SCG by Nick Eisel
  • Here's a video article by Chris Davis

Nightsky Mimic is the best mimic. If you can build a decent white black deck and get 3 of those mimics and enough white/black cards (which is entirely possible), your deck will likely be brutal.

As always, I appreciate any comments! 

xger

xger21 on MTGO.