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By: xger, Xger
Jul 20 2016 12:00pm
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Magic 2010 took the core set formula and flipped it on its head. First, the core set came with new cards, based almost solely on resonance, so we have cards like Silence and Essence Scatter. Wizards also revamped the rules with this core set, such as getting rid of Mana Burn, so cards like Citadel of Pain became nearly useless. Financially, the set isn't impressive, most of its value tied up in Mythics, unsurprisingly. If you want to jump past the introduction, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here. 

Introduction to the Article Series:

To jump to the set background, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here.

Over the course of this year, Wizards will run flashback drafts that are from the Modern sets. One week for each format. The flashbacks will stop when there is a prerelease or release going on. More info here.

Here is the upcoming schedule:

Format Dates
Magic 2010 7/20-7/27
Break for Eldritch Moon 7/27-8/16
Triple Zendikar 8/17-8/23
Zendikar, Zendikar, Worldwake 8/24-8/30
Triple Rise of the Eldrazi 8/31-9/6

Wizards has updated the schedule, so these are confirmed dates (they've even included dates beyond what I have here).

First, I will do a fiscal analysis. While a lot of players will play just for the fun of it, knowing what cards are worth something is a good plan. Since none of these formats are competitively valued anymore, there really is no reason to pass on a $30 card. Even if it is terrible and useless in limited. Further, knowing what common and uncommons are worth the effort to sell could be useful.

However, just a rote listing of pricing is only so helpful. A lot of the cards, particularly core sets and the older sets, just don't have the supply to adequately meet demand. That means some of the cards might tank quickly when there is a sudden surge of supply. Some of these sets have probably never had flashbacks, or it has been many years. That means the market reaction might be extreme or subtle. It is also unknown how many cards will enter the system—if the drafts are popular, the effect is greater.

To give the most useful information, I am going to track the value of the sets already given a flashback as well as the time just prior to the flashback. Hopefully this will give some idea of the fiscal value of the flashback draft. Of course, it is still going to be a lottery most of the time.

Second, I will give some very brief drafting advice and provide links to other articles from those better experienced. 

With that, let's get started:

Magic 2010 History and Background:

Magic 2010 completely restarted the idea of a core set. When designing the set, Wizards questioned whether it made sense for it to be reprint only, deciding that it no longer made sense. Part of what draws players into Magic is relatability, at least in regards to other fantasy tropes they expect. The core set became the perfect place to place a card that players could understand from the name alone, such as Silence. Wizards also made the core sets smaller than previously, and it introduced the complex planeswalkers. Oh, and it overhauled the rules, fairly substantially.

In the feel of the newly refreshed core set, Wizards decided to revamp the rules, largely portions that new players often felt deceived by, such as damage on the stack or bizarre blocking shenanigans. So, Mogg Fanatic lost significant value. At the same time, Mana Burn was removed, hence the effective nullification of Citadel of Pain. It also means Upwelling loses a lot of its heaviest risks. This is also where the "battlefield" and "exile" terminology was introduced, though that is hard to notice on MTGO since it uses the Oracle test. Lifelink also got a nerf, because it became static, so multiple instances no longer stack. However, the new rules don't do anything to cards like Soul Link or Spirit Link, so those still stack.

Magic 2010 also includes some cycles, most notably the new collection of tribal lords. After the Crusade versus Glorious Anthem discovery, Wizards finally got around to creating lords that affected only your own creatures. So Goblin King became Goblin Chieftain, Lord of Atlantis became Merfolk Sovereign, and so on. Otherwise, it was standard core set cycles, nothing outstanding. Magic 2010 did drop many hold outs in core sets: no circles such as Story Circle, no Wrath of God 4 cost effect, and no Fertile Ground effects either.

goblin kinggoblin chieftainlord of atlantismerfolk sovereign

Nothing of significance happened in MTGO.

Fiscal Value of the Flashback

Prices are from MTG Goldfish, from Tuesday evening July 19th.

Magic 2010:

Top 5 Mythics
Name Price
Time Warp $7.63
Garruk Wildspeaker $7.45
Master of the Wild Hunt $4.10
Baneslayer Angel $3.19
Vampire Nocturnus $2.30
Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Howling Mine $2.41
Pithing Needle $1.93
Birds of Paradise $1.47
Goblin Chieftain $1.19
Honor of the Pure $1.15
Open the Vaults $1.10
Glacial Fortress $0.86
Elvish Archdruid $0.48
Ball Lightning $0.31
Drowned Catacomb $0.31
Top Uncommons

None!

Worthwhile Commons
Lightning Bolt $0.39

Nothing too inspiring. Here we see the impact of Mythics--All of the mythics are worth more than the average rare. Of course, this is a result of redemption. So, you better hope to open Garruk Wildspeaker since not only is he one of the most valuable cards, he's great in limited. Despite being nominally worth less than Time Warp, Garruk is going to be the real lottery here. At least most of the rares worth something are reprints, so their value should return relatively quickly.

 

These charts show the inflection points of the mythics and rares--here, between the 6th and 7th mythic and between the 12th and 13th rare. That means that 6 mythics and 12 rares in the set are priced higher than the averages ($2.11 and $0.24, respectively). We are now probably seeing the more typical effects of introducing Mythics, as the mythics are relatively flat, whereas the rares can be flat, but just have so little value. It means little that almost 1/4 of the rares are above average value when that value is $0.24.

A lottery rate of 0% will mean the set is balanced, and 100% will mean a single card accounting for ~70% of the rares total value (70% is an approximation of the percentage of drafts that will not have the top value rare). The same is applied for mythics. The blended rate below is 7/8 rare rate and 1/8 Mythic. I will probably continue to tinker with the blended rate.

Magic 2010's Rare Lottery Rate: 81%

Magic 2010's Mythic Lottery Rate: 60%

Magic 2010's Blended Lottery Rate: 78%

These rates are actually pretty good, at least compared overall to Alara block. However, this rate doesn't reveal the low value of the set. There isn't a single card that pays for a new draft. However, this gives some idea of one's ability to randomly recover some value.

Set Trend Pack Value Average Draft Value
Similar to Alara Reborn, M10 has climbed a decent percent (~25%) but that is only about $10. $0.72 Normal Pack

$2.17

$0.52 Without Commons $1.57
$0.48 Without Mythics $1.47

The pack value is really low, though that shouldn't surprise anyone at this point. The set overall is low value, and there are not super valuable cards to prop up the value.

Flashback Trends:

  Before Price After Price Percent Change Change Since Last Article
Eighth Edition $101.20 $110.46 9.2% 0.4%
Blood Moon $35.00 $34.56 -1.3% 2.2%
Mirrodin $94.90 $73.22 -22.8% 2.6%
Oblivion Stone $35.00 $16.86 -51.8% -0.7%
Darksteel $68.60 $55.37 -19.3% -5.2%
AEther Vial $5.60 $6.50 16.1% 11.3%
Fifth Dawn $106.00 $122.11 15.2% -0.3%
Serum Visions $2.80 $3.23 15.4% 17.5%
Champions $75.50 $51.25 -32.1% -3.5%
Sensei's Divining Top $3.50 $1.67 -52.3% -7.2%
Betrayers $63.20 $50.20 -20.6% 2.3%
Goryo's Vengeance $28.86 $14.15 -51.0% -1.7%
Saviors $61.10 $72.92 19.3% 0.4%
Oboro, Palace in the Clouds $15.50 $13.45 -13.2% 5.5%
Ninth Edition $102.40 $82.08 -19.8% 1.6%
Phyrexian Arena $5.20 $4.45 -14.4% -0.7%
Ravnica $78.20 $70.38 -10.0% -4.5%
Dark Confidant $12.59 $10.80 -14.2% -10.8%
Guildpact $41.60 $35.65 -14.3% 4.4%
Orzhov Pontiff $8.40 $3.27 -61.1% -1.2%
Dissension $74.50 $75.94 1.9% -8.5%
Infernal Tutor $36.66 $38.44 4.9% -17.8%
Coldsnap $74.70 $51.09 -31.6% 3.0%
Dark Depths $25.09 $14.23 -43.3% -7.2%
Time Spiral $44.90 $64.25 43.1% 3.7%
Ancestral Vision $21.01 $40.70 93.7% 4.5%
Planar Chaos $26.20 $24.21 -7.6% -6.5%
Damnation $14.32 $9.32 -34.9% -1.0%
Future Sight $203.60 $181.88 -10.7% -0.2%
Grove of the Burnwillows $39.02 $33.04 -15.3% -0.7%
Tenth Edition $104.40 $88.62 -15.1% 0.4%
Crucible of Worlds $25.77 $21.39 -17.0% -0.4%
Lorwyn $78.70 $62.44 -20.7% -2.2%
Thoughtseize $6.45 $6.39 -0.9% 6.9%
Morningtide $99.10 $85.08 -14.1% 4.3%
Scapeshift $30.16 $25.14 -16.6% 1.5%
Shadowmoor $108.40 $72.52 -33.1% -0.9%
Fulminator Mage $12.62 $13.26 5.1% 0.1%
Eventide $118.00 $92.72 -21.4% -1.8%
Twilight Mire $15.90 $15.04 -5.4% 3.2%
Shards of Alara $46.60 $30.98 -33.5% 2.8%
Ajani Vengeant $14.47 $9.77 -32.5% 3.8%
Conflux $49.10 $42.54 -13.4% -6.8%
Noble Hierarch $21.48 $21.12 -1.7% -2.7%
Alara Reborn $30.10 $28.74 -4.5% N/A
Maelstrom Pulse $5.07 $4.44 -12.4% N/A

Probably upcoming set.

Wrap-up

Don't forget to look at articles here on PureMTGO. Here is a search link for Magic 2010 articles. There were no articles showing up when I did the search, so it's possible this search won't work. If it doesn't, sorry. Old articles on the draft format: 

It's been long enough since Magic 2010 that some players may not have experience Lightning Bolt in limited. It's really good. Coupled with cards like Panic Attack, Fireball, and Pyroclasm, Red is arguably the best color in Magic 2010 best, at least I think so.

As always, I appreciate any comments! 

xger

xger21 on MTGO.