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By: xger, Xger
Sep 07 2016 12:00pm
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This week will be slightly briefly on history and background, because it's a core set without major changes, and I am working on other articles. The set's big addition was the cycle of Titans, such as Primeval Titan, Inferno Titan, and Sun Titan. The set is pretty standard financially for a core set, meaning nothing spectacular, with a number of card prices constrained by supply. So, a number of cards might fall hard.  If you want to jump past the introduction, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here. 

Introduction to the Article Series:

To jump to the set background, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here.

Over the course of this year, Wizards will run flashback drafts that are from the Modern sets. One week for each format. The flashbacks will stop when there is a prerelease or release going on. More info here.

Here is the upcoming schedule:

Format Dates
Triple Magic 2011 9/7-9/13
Triple Scars of Mirrodin 9/14-9/20
Mirrodin Besieged, Scars of Mirrodin, Scars of Mirrodin 9/21-9/27
New Phyrexia, Mirrodin Besieged, Scars of Mirrodin 9/28-10/4
Break for Kaladesh 10/5-10/25

Wizards has updated the schedule, so these are confirmed dates (they've even included dates beyond what I have here).

First, I will do a fiscal analysis. While a lot of players will play just for the fun of it, knowing what cards are worth something is a good plan. Since none of these formats are competitively valued anymore, there really is no reason to pass on a $30 card. Even if it is terrible and useless in limited. Further, knowing what common and uncommons are worth the effort to sell could be useful.

However, just a rote listing of pricing is only so helpful. A lot of the cards, particularly core sets and the older sets, just don't have the supply to adequately meet demand. That means some of the cards might tank quickly when there is a sudden surge of supply. Some of these sets have probably never had flashbacks, or it has been many years. That means the market reaction might be extreme or subtle. It is also unknown how many cards will enter the system—if the drafts are popular, the effect is greater.

To give the most useful information, I am going to track the value of the sets already given a flashback as well as the time just prior to the flashback. Hopefully this will give some idea of the fiscal value of the flashback draft. Of course, it is still going to be a lottery most of the time.

Second, I will give some very brief drafting advice and provide links to other articles from those better experienced. 

With that, let's get started:

Magic 2011 History and Background:

Magic 2011 is yet another core set. This is the second core set in the new scheme, which makes it the first core set to follow the year immediately after the previous one. It follows largely in the footsteps of Magic 2010, though it is less remembered overall. The set brought the Titans, and some new scry cards. The scry is particularly dated in this sense, because this was "the" mechanic of Magic 2011 and scry is now evergreen. 

The Titans are the prime cards from Magic 2011. Interestingly, for once, the blue version is the weakest with Frost Titan. Then there's the big one, Primeval Titan, that is so good he several decks, most recently Amulet of Vigor. Inferno Titan is one of the best red creatures printed, which really says more about the quality of red creatures. Then there's Grave Titan which was often a control finisher since it produces so much damage on the board. Finally, there's Sun Titan, a long time powerhouse and enabler, most commonly bringing back fetchlands like Arid Mesa

frost titanprimeval titaninferno titansun titan

Magic 2011 brings back scry, giving us cards like Preordain, Crystal Ball, and Sign in Blood. It also brings in some hosers like Combust and Celestial Purge. Magic 2011 also introduced "signature" cards for the planeswalker, so Chandra Nalaar has Chandra's Spitfire and Jace Beleren has Jace's Ingenuity.

preordaincrystal ballchandra nalaarchandra's spitfire

Again, nothing happened in MTGO of significance, and still won't for several months during this period.

Fiscal Value of the Flashback

Prices are from MTG Goldfish, from Tuesday the 6th.

Magic 2011:

Top 5 Mythics
Name Price
Primeval Titan $12.66
Inferno Titan $6.62
Grave Titan $5.23
Sun Titan $4.26
Garruk Wildspeaker $3.11
Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Leyline of Sanctity $7.43
Serra Ascendant $6.06
Leyline of the Void $5.23
Steel Overseer $5.22
Obstinate Baloth $4.06
Leyline of Punishment $2.31
Birds of Paradise $1.58
Glacial Fortress $1.06
Fauna Shaman $1.05
Goblin Chieftain $0.69
Top Uncommons
None!  
Worthwhile Commons
Lightning Bolt $0.83
Preordain $0.55

The set isn't that bad, fiscally. Nothing is spectacular, but the Titans will hold some value for a while. However, keep in mind that the Titans will come back in Magic 2012, which means there will be another drop of supply into the market. That may not be a huge concern though, because the two flashbacks probably won't be the most popular, as they are still core sets. Lightning Bolt saw a recent flashback and is still cruising, so that is value. Preordain's value is tied to its low printing, but it is solid, so it'll probably dip a bit, but climb back.

 

These charts show the inflection points of the mythics and rares--here, between the 5th and 6th mythic and between the 9th and 10th rare. That means that 5 mythics and 9 rares in the set are priced higher than the averages ($2.81 and $0.70, respectively). The average values are actually decent for a core set, and neither is particularly skewed, at least more than usual.

A lottery rate of 0% will mean the set is balanced, and 100% will mean a single card accounting for ~70% of the rares total value (70% is an approximation of the percentage of drafts that will not have the top value rare). The same is applied for mythics. The blended rate below is 7/8 rare rate and 1/8 Mythic.

Magic 2011's Rare Lottery Rate: 85%

Magic 2011's Mythic Lottery Rate: 47%

Magic 2011's Blended Lottery Rate: 80%

The rates are better than some recent ones, mainly because of the decent number of semi-valuable rares. The mythics also are not too skewed. 

Set Trend Pack Value Average Draft Value
Magic 2011 has the normal ebbs and flows and is currently up about 20% from the announcement. $1.30 Normal Pack

$3.90

$1.01 Without Commons $3.04
$0.95 Without Mythics $2.85

The biggest note here is the value of the commons, with Lightning Bolt and Preordain combining to be nearly half the common value in total, pushing the average common value to almost $0.03.

Flashback Trends:

  Before Price After Price Percent Change Change Since Last Article
Eighth Edition $101.20 $101.22 0.0% 5.8%
Blood Moon $35.00 $34.69 -0.9% 18.0%
Mirrodin $94.90 $74.60 -21.4% 8.4%
Oblivion Stone $35.00 $15.56 -55.5% -32.3%
Darksteel $68.60 $55.59 -19.0% 3.1%
AEther Vial $5.60 $6.46 15.4% 3.2%
Fifth Dawn $106.00 $127.54 20.3% 3.5%
Serum Visions $2.80 $3.25 16.1% 10.9%
Champions $75.50 $65.63 -13.1% -7.6%
Through the Breach $13.33 $23.88 79.1% -20.3%
Betrayers $63.20 $51.53 -18.5% 2.1%
Goryo's Vengeance $28.86 $17.03 -41.0% 8.1%
Saviors $61.10 $75.54 23.6% 0.7%
Oboro, Palace in the Clouds $15.50 $16.05 3.5% -0.7%
Ninth Edition $102.40 $89.49 -12.6% 8.7%
Phyrexian Arena $5.20 $3.81 -26.7% -2.6%
Ravnica $78.20 $68.95 -11.8% -9.5%
Dark Confidant $12.59 $10.77 -14.5% -0.4%
Guildpact $41.60 $36.08 -13.3% -4.4%
Orzhov Pontiff $8.40 $1.97 -76.5% -17.6%
Dissension $74.50 $80.61 8.2% 4.4%
Infernal Tutor $36.66 $43.59 18.9% 8.6%
Coldsnap $74.70 $52.68 -29.5% -4.8%
Mishra's Bauble $6.15 $13.00 111.4% -15.3%
Time Spiral $44.90 $51.90 15.6% -0.1%
Ancestral Vision $21.01 $28.57 36.0% -0.9%
Planar Chaos $26.20 $23.66 -9.7% 3.9%
Damnation $14.32 $10.72 -25.1% 8.2%
Future Sight $203.60 $189.84 -6.8% 6.6%
Grove of the Burnwillows $39.02 $36.06 -7.6% 20.4%
Tenth Edition $104.40 $93.39 -10.5% 2.0%
Crucible of Worlds $25.77 $18.31 -28.9% 0.4%
Lorwyn $78.70 $52.89 -32.8% -5.8%
Thoughtseize $6.45 $5.75 -10.9% 12.1%
Morningtide $99.10 $80.50 -18.8% 0.2%
Scapeshift $30.16 $27.25 -9.6% -3.1%
Shadowmoor $108.40 $74.73 -31.1% 2.2%
Fulminator Mage $12.62 $11.27 -10.7% 1.0%
Eventide $118.00 $99.80 -15.4% 2.5%
Twilight Mire $15.90 $19.55 23.0% 0.6%
Shards of Alara $46.60 $31.68 -32.0% 3.4%
Ajani Vengeant $14.47 $8.50 -41.3% 0.1%
Conflux $49.10 $46.69 -4.9% 1.6%
Noble Hierarch $21.48 $27.39 27.5% 2.5%
Alara Reborn $30.10 $27.39 -9.0% -0.5%
Maelstrom Pulse $5.07 $3.97 -21.7% -2.2%
Magic 2010 $46.40 $37.97 -18.2% 2.8%
Time Warp $7.63 $6.20 -18.7% 4.0%
Zendikar $157.70 $129.20 -18.1% 11.5%
Scalding Tarn $31.78 $33.99 7.0% 26.2%
Worldwake $100.30 $79.09 -21.1% -0.5%
Celestial Colonnade $26.97 $24.05 -10.8% 2.2%
Rise of the Eldrazi $50.00 $36.80 -26.4% N/A
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn $12.30 $10.35 -15.9% N/A

Blood moon jumped nearly 10% in a day. My guess would be that that is related to the new Chandra, Torch of Defiance. Personally, I think there is a potential for a Big Red deck in Modern, and if so, a mono-red version might just run Blood Moon straight up. Of course, that is possibly my bias of liking Red and Chandra. However, it's about the only explanation I can think of for a 10% jump in one day of a traditional sideboard card. 

I apparently have no idea what to make of Serum Visions, as it jumped a fair bit in the week. All I can think is that either Serum Visions is relatively unpredictable generally or that people were anticipating new applications in Modern due to upcoming Kaladesh cards.

As for Rise of the Eldrazi, the drop was that too strong, and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn dropped less, so we again see the top card not dipping as much the set as whole, which might implicate my thoughts on people waiting to buy until the flashback is occurring or shortly thereafter.

Wrap-up

Don't forget to look at articles here on PureMTGO. Here is a search link for Worldwake articles. Per usual, this includes several old articles that might be helpful anyway. Old articles on the draft format: 

  • Here's an article by Andrew Jorgensen at Alter Reality Games.
  • Here's an article series on Channel Fireball for the set reviews (I had difficulty finding another article just on drafting, sorry)

Magic 2011 is similar to Magic 2010--it's a limited core set, so rather straight forward. Again, Lightning Bolt is incredibly strong.

As always, I appreciate any comments! 

xger

xger21 on MTGO.