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By: xger, Xger
Nov 10 2016 12:00pm
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We just left Innistrad, but instead of hitting Avacyn Restored, we take a brief detour back to Magic 2012. The schedule shifted to account for Halloween, so we get our first core set of two in three weeks. Time for good fun with core set drafting.

If you want to jump past the introduction, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here. 

Introduction to the Article Series

To jump to the set background, click here. To jump to the fiscal analysis, click here.

Over the course of this year, Wizards will run flashback drafts that are from the Modern sets. One week for each format. The flashbacks will stop when there is a prerelease or release going on. More info here.

Here is the upcoming schedule:

Format Dates
Triple Magic 2012 11/9-11/15
Triple Avacyn Restored 11/16-11/22
Magic 2013 11/23-11/29
Triple Return to Ravnica 11/30-12/6
Triple Gatecrash 12/7-12/13
Dragon's Maze, Gatecrash, Return to Ravnica 12/14-12/20
Triple Magic 2014 12/21-12/27

Wizards has updated the schedule. They haven't announced the next year's schedule, if any, so this is what we have for now.

First, I will do a fiscal analysis. While a lot of players will play just for the fun of it, knowing what cards are worth something is a good plan. Since none of these formats are competitively valued anymore, there really is no reason to pass on a $30 card. Even if it is terrible and useless in limited. Further, knowing what common and uncommons are worth the effort to sell could be useful.

However, just a rote listing of pricing is only so helpful. A lot of the cards, particularly core sets and the older sets, just don't have the supply to adequately meet demand. That means some of the cards might tank quickly when there is a sudden surge of supply. Some of these sets have probably never had flashbacks, or it has been many years. That means the market reaction might be extreme or subtle. It is also unknown how many cards will enter the system—if the drafts are popular, the effect is greater.

To give the most useful information, I am going to track the value of the sets already given a flashback as well as the time just prior to the flashback. Hopefully this will give some idea of the fiscal value of the flashback draft. Of course, it is still going to be a lottery most of the time.

Second, I will give some very brief drafting advice and provide links to other articles from those better experienced. 

With that, let's get started:

Magic 2012History and Background (cancelled this week)

Sorry, but between the election, school, work, laptop crash, and my pet getting sick I ran out of time this week. I should be back next week with Avacyn Restored history. At least it's a core set that is missing. The biggest news is that the Titans returned--Primeval Titan, Frost Titan, Grave Titan, Inferno Titan, and Sun Titan.

Fiscal Value of the Flashback

Prices are from MTGOtraders and MTGgoldfish as the 9th. Some are morning and some are evening. Sorry again.

Magic 2012

Top 5 Mythics
Name Price
Primeval Titan $7.17
Primordial Hydra $2.95
Sun Titan $2.2
Gideon Jura $2.18
Grave Titan $2.18

 

Top 10 Rares
Name Price
Visions of Beyond $4.1
Phantasmal Image $2.29
Grim Lavamancer $1.96
Solemn Simulacrum $1.29
Vengeful Pharaoh $0.88
Birds of Paradise $0.67
Glacial Fortress $0.59
Goblin Chieftain $0.45
Adaptive Automaton $0.23
Rune-Scarred Demon $0.19

 

Top Uncommons
Name Price
None!

 

Worthwhile Commons
Name Price
None!

A particularly sad bunch, with only Primeval Titan and Visions of Beyond worth noting.

 

These charts show the inflection points of the mythics and rares--here, between the 7th and 8th mythic and between the 8th and 9th rare. That means that 7 mythics and 8 rares in the set are priced higher than the averages ($1.67 and $0.26, respectively). 

A lottery rate of 0% will mean the set is balanced, and 100% will mean a single card accounting for ~70% of the rares total value (70% is an approximation of the percentage of drafts that will not have the top value rare). The same is applied for mythics. The blended rate below is 7/8 rare rate and 1/8 Mythic.

Magic 2012's Rare Lottery Rate: 88.7%

Magic 2012's Mythic Lottery Rate: 33.3%

Magic 2012's Blended Lottery Rate: 81.8%

 

Set Trend Pack Value Average Draft Value
Magic 2012 has dipped about 33% in the last couple of months. $0.70 Normal Pack

$2.10

$0.50 Without Commons $1.49
$0.49 Without Mythics $1.48

 

Flashback Trends

  Before Price After Price Percent Change Change Since Last Article
Eighth Edition $101.2 $111.53 10.2% 6.8%
Blood Moon $35 $39.42 12.6% 13.6%
Mirrodin $94.9 $68.5 -27.8% 15.8%
Oblivion Stone $35 $11.29 -67.7% 14.7%
Darksteel $68.6 $51.74 -24.6% -0.6%
AEther Vial $5.6 $5.47 -2.3% 18.9%
Fifth Dawn $106 $102.22 -3.6% 3.3%
Serum Visions $2.8 $2.5 -10.7% -10.7%
Champions $75.5 $40.99 -45.7% 6.2%
Through the Breach $13.33 $14.75 10.7% 9.5%
Betrayers $63.2 $33.34 -47.2% -4.5%
Goryo's Vengeance $28.86 $8.03 -72.2% -24.4%
Saviors $61.1 $60.66 -0.7% -5%
Oboro, Palace in the Clouds $15.5 $10.04 -35.2% -11.9%
Ninth Edition $102.4 $78.15 -23.7% 6.1%
Phyrexian Arena $5.2 $4.63 -11% 4%
Ravnica $78.2 $71.58 -8.5% 6.1%
Dark Confidant $12.59 $8.54 -32.2% 9.6%
Guildpact $41.6 $30.51 -26.7% 19.6%
Orzhov Pontiff $8.4 $1.44 -82.9% 37.1%
Dissension $74.5 $67.46 -9.4% 7.8%
Infernal Tutor $36.66 $39.11 6.7% 11%
Coldsnap $74.7 $48.49 -35.1% 30.4%
Mishra's Bauble $6.15 $8.09 31.5% 83.9%
Time Spiral $44.9 $39.18 -12.7% 11.9%
Ancestral Vision $21.01 $19.95 -5% 12.2%
Planar Chaos $26.2 $21.26 -18.9% 25.8%
Damnation $14.32 $9.1 -36.5% 13.5%
Future Sight $203.6 $148.53 -27% 8.8%
Grove of the Burnwillows $39.02 $29.19 -25.2% 14.2%
Tenth Edition $104.4 $63.29 -39.4% -0.9%
Crucible of Worlds $25.77 $12.42 -51.8% 6.9%
Lorwyn $78.7 $40.95 -48% 18.5%
Thoughtseize $6.45 $4.94 -23.4% 27.6%
Morningtide $99.1 $71.54 -27.8% 4.7%
Scapeshift $30.16 $26.05 -13.6% 15.4%
Shadowmoor $108.4 $47.36 -56.3% 4.8%
Fulminator Mage $12.62 $7.59 -39.9% 3.7%
Eventide $118 $86.23 -26.9% -2.9%
Twilight Mire $15.9 $23.57 48.2% -1.5%
Shards of Alara $46.6 $28.65 -38.5% 12.4%
Ajani Vengeant $14.47 $8.58 -40.7% 5.4%
Conflux $49.1 $46.14 -6% 9%
Noble Hierarch $21.48 $26.4 22.9% 9.9%
Alara Reborn $30.1 $23.53 -21.8% -1.3%
Maelstrom Pulse $5.07 $3.23 -36.3% -0.9%
Magic 2010 $46.4 $28.63 -38.3% 6.1%
Time Warp $7.63 $6.25 -18.1% -1%
Zendikar $157.7 $112.68 -28.5% 6%
Scalding Tarn $31.78 $30.84 -3% 34.2%
Worldwake $100.3 $59.15 -41% 11.5%
Celestial Colonnade $26.97 $17.54 -35% 6%
Rise of the Eldrazi $50 $28.71 -42.6% 8.5%
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn $12.3 $5.88 -52.2% 3.9%
Magic 2011 $81.6 $58.52 -28.3% 13.9%
Primeval Titan $12.66 $8 -36.8% 5.1%
Scars of Mirrodin $94.18 $71.95 -23.6% 20.5%
Mox Opal $29.53 $30.63 3.7% 26.3%
Mirrodin Besieged $87.67 $55.32 -36.9% -0.2%
Inkmoth Nexus $32.78 $24.49 -25.3% -6.6%
New Phyrexia $148.9 $112.15 -24.7% 11.5%
Batterskull $23.9 $16.11 -32.6% 4.3%
Innistrad $121.3 $131.38 8.3% 7%
Liliana of the Veil $85.14 $77.7 -8.7% 7.7%
Dark Ascension $40.68 $33.35 -18% N/A
Grafdigger's Cage $17.04 $15.3 -10.2% N/A

The outliers this week are Goryo's Vengeance, Mishra's Bauble, Scalding Tarn, and Mox Opal. The first could just be its signature deck falling out of favor. The other three are likely returning to historical norms.

Wrap-up

Should you want other flashback articles, here's a search link! There's a fair bit there from some older articles, so enjoy!

The phantasms can be extremely powerful, but can also be quickly over drafted. When your opponent doesn't have a good out for them, you'll win. You might just fold otherwise, so it's very glass cannon.

As always, I appreciate any comments! 

Sorry about the abbreviated article, hopefully next week will be normal again.

xger

xger21 on MTGO.