Editorial Section aka The green trick with Multikick!:
I have history of losing to combat tricks, which is just another reason I'm a noob, but I digress... One of the more poignant memories involves me playing against my mentor Heath Kennel. It involved me alpha striking into a board of weenies only to get blow out be a Symbiosis. Awkward. I learned a lot from Heath, having the benefit of being taught by an ex-pro gave me a great leg up on the learning curve of Magic. Sadly I've never been close to his level of skill and my defeats aren't strictly limited to old cards, I've lost to all sorts of tricks in my history of this game. Berserk, Fog, Balduvian Rage, etc. Generally though, these tricks consist of "one and done" type of effect, meaning that once those tricks resolve everything goes back to normal the next turn.
Until now, that is! I hereby show you Strength of the Tajuuuuuruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu! (and yes, the yelling is mandatory, ala "HUNDROOOOOOOOOOOOG!!")
Well now, that's a trick of a different color! Well, um, not really a different color, but a different impact to be sure! Not only can it cause a horribly bad position for your opponent's alpha strike, it also sticks on your creatures for your rather formidable counter attack.
Constructed Thoughts:
Green has a long heritage of pump spells, but not too many that follow the same genealogical line as this bad boy. Mass counters for mass creatures isn't something that happens all that often, and for good reason, it's a huge game changing effect. Even if it's happening at sorcery timing instead of as an instant, it's still a gigantic effect in any creature centric format... kind of like Zendikar, I guess.
The first two cards of this nature that I recall from my time as a player are Stand Together and Thrive; let's see how they stack up: Stand Together requires two creatures to be of any use, otherwise you're targeting your opponent's creatures... which is none good). It's a sorcery, so it lacks a lot of the trickiness this card will have. This card, for the same mana (five), can give two creatures +2/+2, but at instant speed OR if you only have one creature can instead give that creature +3/+3 instead! More flexible and more tricky, this is head-and-shoulders above Stand Together. Before that we had Elven Rite which is far more efficient, distributing two counters for two mana. However, that was a sorcery in a land of Capsize, which kind of made its power a bit underwhelming in the long game. Certainly not a bad card by any rights, but not a powerhouse. To give two creatures the same effect with this card you'll need four mana. Less impressive on turn two, I guess, but how often were you casting Elven Rite on turn two anyway? Probably not often, if at all.
But what about yonder Thrive? Thrive, for six mana, gives five creatures +1/+1. To give five creatures +1/+1 with this, you'll need to pay seven (GG1 + 4). A little worse for your token armies. But what about +2/+2, assuming you had two thrives? Twelve mana for +2/+2, or eight mana for Strength of the Tajuru (GG2 + 4). Thrive, is slightly better for a minor token boost, but if you're going for an all out mana ramp token aggro deck, SotT will be a much bigger beating than thrive could hope to be. Take the previous example of having twelve mana for 2x thrives. For that much, you could give those creatures +6/+6!!! (GG6 + 4). I can even see how Elves might just run a couple of these as a mid-game win condition or late game blowout.
As I started writing this next part I realized I sounded like an AA member, so I just sort of went with it.
"Hi, my name is Erik. It's been six months since I built my last casual deck. I started playing competitive Magic and have been "Casual-Clean" ever since.
But I recently had a relapse. I was sent a card that no one else has seen and is amazing in the mid-late game. It screamed to be broken. It screamed for casual fun. It screamed.... for Doubling Season. Before I knew what was happening I was building a casual deck. I feel like I've disappointed my competition sponsor, sorry Sebastian."
There were a few casual paths I started down. One was Persist mixed with Strength of the Tajuru. Another was tokens with Doubling Season which, as you can imagine, is insanely crazy to think about. Essentially any place that Overrun could be used this can also be useful and anything that benefits from +1/+1 counters... cards like Phantom Centaur and friends... and Green/x ramp decks. The amount of possibilities for using this as a blow out win condition are numerous. And while the card isn't a "build around me" type of card, I can see many players replacing their pump spell of choice with this one. It's powerful in so many ways, combat trick, alpha strike, defensively, swarming, and so on.
Limited thoughts:
Most of that is regarding constructed uses, and to be fair, there are plenty of uses. However, I think this card will really shine in Zendikar limited. Many of the format's creatures are only big when attacking. Plated Geopede, Steppe Lynx, etc. Having a trick that not only allows you to block profitably and extra-increase your next attack will be the difference between winning and losing those races that are all too frequent in Zendikar limited games. Keep this card in mind when you're attacking into a board with some weenies and some untapped Green mana... it might just be a surprise Tajuru'ing waiting for you!
Discussion Items: MTGO Hardware issue -
MTGO Ran into a nasty hardware issue that brought the servers back down shortly after the routine downtime. Lots of crashed events and imploded games with lots of refunds. Ouch.
Thoughts about PTQ's on MTGO -
This is a good thread with lots of potential for some interesting thoughts about the impacts of card bugs in a constructed PTQ and the impacts that might have on the metagame and credibility of the platform itself. I look forward to seeing where this thread can go in the future.
50 Minute Ravnica Rounds? -
The round times for Ravnica events is shorter than before, for no announced reason. Just a small warning to those who might join these.
Card Price Discussion:
Worldwake spoilers are hitting their stride, and of course, that means that cards that already exist get usurped and strengthened as new cards appear.Cards like Nocturnus and Markov appear to be getting some cold, glittery vampire love in the new set and have risen appropriately.Other movers are Extended breakouts: Summoner's Pact, Pact of the Titan which are in one of the craziest decks I've seen taken seriously named Hive Mind after its namesake card: Hive Mind.Other Extended movers are Living End and Avalanche Riders which are now in a crazy new Cascade deck that seeks to cycle cards into the graveyard and cascade into a Living End, bringing back the Cascade player's graveyard while simultaneously clearing the opponent's board.Solid plan and a great evolution to the previous cascade combo decks.And mass speculation on Counterbalance seems to be impacting the price already with retail versions jumping up to 2.50 already.
Moving lower this week we have cards that have cooled off from their previous highs in the game. Mostly the Extended lands have dropped a bit lower as the demand is beginning to wane and the supply is quickly balancing out. I actually expect Chalice of the Void to regain a bit on the back of the Cascade decks going up this week as it once again is a great first turn shutdown of that decks and really good sideboard material in general.
I know I thanked people last week for my preview cards but I'm going to do it here again, because no matter how many I get the opportunity to do it's still a tremendous privilege to be chosen to preview a new card. I can't help but think back to the great writers I've looked up to and realize that I have been chosen to share an experience like this. So thank you again Heath, Jessica from the PR firm, Joshua Claytor, The fine folks at WotC, and all the rest involved in letting me do this again.
64 Comments
Kabira Evangel
by Anonymous (not verified)
at Fri, 01/22/2010 - 05:24
I'm not sure when you get your info and what the criteria is for appearing, but Kabira Evangel jumped from .10 to .50 in the past 2 days and is now impossible to find.
@Anon, not surprising considering the new Allies coming out. White Allies in particularly look hot.
@hammy, "Wow that card is a limited beating!" That was my one and ONLY thought when I started reading your SotP. Oh! You want to play it constructed? Nice...not sure it is all that casual. Even at the very minimum of GG1 it gives a creature a counter. This is not a small thing, when you are struggling to remove someone's already tough Scute Mob, Scath Tiger, etc. Green beef is cheap enough that this card curves right in not just as a combat trick but removal proof in response to say a unkicked Lightning Burst. I smell Señor Stompy!
On a technical note: I am noticing your text intermittently changing font size without any real rhyme/reason to it. You probably have a missing tag somewhere in the html.
Yeah I know, thankfully I managed to get 80 Evangels before they were all gone. I was just wondering what the price change had to be to appear on the chart, since that is a %400 change.
I'm pretty sure that this is the worst attempt at speculating that I've ever heard of.
Speculating on an *in print* rare right before a release event that will drop thousands more in the system seems like a less than cunning plan.
People looking for Evangels: post a reasonable buy ad and wait. Tons are entering the system through drafts/sealed, and many more will be coming with WWK.
It may not have been that poster, but *someone* bought them all up, and that someone (or someones) will probably not see a lot growth on this speculation buying. Too many more are going to be coming into the system.
speculators are douche bags, they are pretty much other than scammers the lowest life forms on MTGO. God this whole thing pisses me off to know end. Why completely rape everybody's sotck of one card? Are you so greedy that you couldnt even leave say two playsets for the possible new player who may want to build an ally deck? I seriously hope you get involved in a fatal car wreck on your way home. That way even if we never get the Evangels back since youre dead, you don't profit from them either. And yes I'm serious and no I won't feel bad if this actually happens, so dont waste time posting about it. And im sure this will become a recipe from josh and thats ok with me. I just had to get this off my chest.
im just very very convicted in my beliefs...and while i may have used a little hyperbole (this guy doesnt really matter enough to me for me to care whether he lives or dies) most are echoing my sentiments about hoarders sucking a big one. Now I understand if you think a card is about to be hot like recently say living end was .12 cents. Buy a dollars worth of it. That gives you 8 of them so you get a playset and sell the other four and get a 400% return. There is no need to be a bastard and buy 80 of a card. Not too mention that even with the new allies coming out, it will probably still be mostly casual.
What the hell is wrong with you people? Do you genuinely think violence and/or illegal activities are the appropriate responses to someone buying cards for a card game? If your love for this game is more valuable than the well-being of another human (who, it should be noted, is operating within the rules), then you really need to re-evaluate your priorities.
I mean . . .
by Anonymous (not verified)
at Sat, 01/23/2010 - 02:52
Soooo . . . you're being sarcastic? Because it's increasingly less clear as you go along. Perhaps your general forum persona adds to this - apparently JXC is the best editor alive, because your articles are at least readable.
That was a very distasteful remark mr anon. I am a Christian and do not appreciate your statement and I would say the same thing if you had said Muslim, Buddhist, black, white etc. Grow up.
Hi Fenix. Kelly Reid, kbreid on MTGO here. You might know me from such hit films such as "quiet speculation dot com". Just wanted to drop off my two cents.
You're wrong.
Why? Because, the free market allows me, and other such savvy individuals, to make purchases as they please, at the price the market dictates. If I, or anyone else who is smart enough to recognize an emerging trend in the market chooses to act upon these trends, and we are intelligent enough to recognize them as they emerge, then we should be rewarded for our capital outlay and risk.
You can't get upset at us for being smart businesspeople. After all, we use our proceeds to build our decks, pay for our drafts, or just support our cocaine habit...whatever the individual case may be.
Please don't misunderstand me. I understand that you may be annoyed that you can't buy an awful rare that's seeing an unsupported and unprecedented price spike (and if you followed the MTG financial blogs, you'd have seen that Russel Tassicker called this two weeks ago), but frankly, that is neither my problem nor my concern.
Either pay the two tickets - yes, TWO DOLLARS, a fourth of most state's HOURLY MINIMUM WAGE, for a playset, or, be smart enough to realize when hype and new set spoilers are going to cause a card to spike in price.
I'm not all that smart, nor am I especially talented, but it takes neither brains nor talent to identify these trends. I suggest you employ one or both of those traits if you plan to play on Magic the Gathering: Online. Otherwise, you will forever be at the mercy of smarter, more motivated, better-funded and better-connected individuals and you'll keep making asinine, poorly-punctuated screeds on internet forums.
To sum it all up, get a clue, learn your markets, and please stop whining.
Some form of allies is going to take off at least to a certain extent. Even if I only sell them for 1 each, I got them for .1 each. Would be 72 profit.
It seems some other elements of WW decks are being speculated, at least the rares are scarce despite there not being a successful build utilizing the ones I'm looking for.
If you think allies will become hot over the next weeks or so, you should invest your money into earthquakes and day of judgement (day of judgement is in the block, so again don't expect it to rise much.)
If you want an educated guess on what to buy, try malakir bloodwitch
The funny thing about speculators, bad ones as this guy appears to be, is that they can't read cards. I bought 4x of EVERY ally for $6 back in November. That's right, all of them for $6 total. Part of being a good speculator is knowing how to spot valuable commodeties BEFORE the trend. I can't tell you how many times I have bought 4x of a card well before the market inflated. The most recent being Baneslayer Angel, which I bought at 8 tickets 2 weeks after the M10 release online. Reading cards and recognizing the sleeper hits is massivly important. Back when I was still doing paper magic, I bought up all of my area's Greater Gargadons. People laughed at me saying that the card was worthless and I was an idiot. When it hit $10 going into world's, I could have made a killing off the people who had given them to me for free. I didn't because I had that many because I was attempting to see if I could fill an entire trade binder with them. Hoarding is still wrong and I don't believe it it.
To this guy's point of hoarding Kabira Evangel. If this guy was my stock broker, I would have fired him..... and possibly burned down his house. This kind of logic is like buying in Marvel Comics. It only goes up when a movie comes out, which makes you kind of dumb for owning it, and you can only sell it to idiots that are dumber than you. lol
p.s. the same trend was missed when Ravnica came out. Everyone wanted there 4x $13 Heirarchs, but missed buy 4x Life from the Loam when they were at $2. That's how I got 6 of them and then traded the extra 2 for those Heirarchs I didn't get after the price on Heirachs died.
Umm, I didn't know that Evangels ever went below $0.10? That's what I got em for.
@The rest of you:
I see something cheap I expect to get more valuable, I buy it so I can profit. I'm not going to sit on it, just wait till it is more valuable because it is more useful and then sell. I don't see what is immoral about this. It's not like anyone really wants them for any other reason right now, that's why they're cheap. They'd get more valuable even if I didn't buy them.
I see a difference between speculating and hoarding, and fail to see how this is the latter.
I think speculation-buying is great if you run out and nab 4x of some dirt cheap rare (like Evangel, or even Turntimber). That's common sense and smart buying.
Going out and buying up everything in sight is a morally reprehensible action. While this is just a card game, it's the same mentality that would buy up something like fuel during a crisis. The same as selling off stock before you know something "bad" is going to happen.
It's not like that @$$hat is going to use 80 copies of any given card.
Rule of thumb - if you like casual MTGO, just buy 4x of every 10/15 cent rare from the start, that way you can play any causal deck you like and will not get caught by situations like this should one become a tourney card.
Take a look at the two T16 Legacy events (SCG) in the past month. Anything on that list that is on MTGO should be checked for price. If it's low online (say sub $1) it will probably go up when Legacy comes online. I'm suggesting it only for the purpose of getting your playset cheap before prices go up.
How is the dude with 80 Evangels evil but MTGO Traders sitting on 16 Earthquakes perfectly ok? Isn't it the same damn thing? I can guarantee you Traders didn't pay out 4.25 for any of those. I bought my set of Earthquakes for 0.40 each and I'm kicking myself for not buying more. If I had I might be able to afford a Baneslayer!
MTGO Traders doesn't go to everyone selling on MTGO and buy up stuff they know will be worth more later, then jack up the price. It's the morons who are willing to sell a rare for 5 cents to a bot that are the problem.
I have 16 of one rare so I'm a hoarder? If I was trying to hoard something I would have a lot more of them trust me. As for hoarding in general I personally despise it and we are cracking down on it on our site and bots by blocking them etc. If a person only buys cards from me just to hoard them I have the freedom to refuse them sevice just like they have the freedom to hoard a card. I would not go as far as calling them names but they have no reason to get mad at me for playing defense when they are blocked on all of my bots.
Any idea how many of any given rare is out there? All we would need is an approximate number of drafts played for a given set and we could estimate the number of packs opened and then number of each rare.
Let's say they manage to fire off a draft every 5 minutes for 4 months. Adding a bunch of margin that's about 1,000,000 packs. Any given rare has a 1/53 chance (ignoring the mythic effect). Let's round to 1/50. This means every 50 packs nets you a given rare (give or take). This means about 20,000 of each rare exists on MTGO. Let's say you "horde" 100 rares... this is 0.5% of the total supply.
But then you need to factor in demand and number of users. 300,000 users total, 4,000 active at any given time... so let's be naive and say 80,000 users actively play (which is definitely an overestimate). If enough people hoarded it can clearly have a serious effect on the game.
I know it's really rough math, but I think I biased things against my proposition - that hoarding even 100 cards has a significant effect!
you shoud never hoard a card that's going to be played in one deck only.
furthermore, there's a problem wih hoarding
Following the supply/demand model, you'll need to wait unitl the supply runs out to increase the demand for your product.
If kabira does go up, the many players will advertise their kabira evangels on the MB.
You'll need to buy all of those again to ensure price stability or increase.
if 4 people offer them for 1, the fifth will offer them for 3x2 and so on.
The supply is too big for a card like this to hoard, and oh yeah it's in the same block...
Wow all this furor over a silly card. Really I got my allies all together as Blau did but not because I expected them to hit multiticket prices but because I wanted to play with them. Sometimes I don't get that chance but thankfully Zendikar was massively drafted and the rares for the most part were cheap for a long time. That WWK would make some of them better was a fairly safe bet.
I don't care that people hoard. In a free trade environment that is what happens. People try to corner a market or to make a dime off someone else's sweat. If you speculate/hoard you take a risk of being wrong and if you aren't then you reap the rewards. What I don't like is price inflation based on speculation about commonality. I mean Oath was $30 before one pack of Exodus was cracked online...That ticked me off despite the fact that if I had Exodus and drafted it I might have made a small bundle on the speculative price jump. I understand the reason for it, but it (irrationally) still irks me.
Anyway it is all rather moot. Until player to player trading is fixed/enhanced to the point where casual trading starts happening again regularly you will have to rely on the bots or drafting to get your cards and as such are at their mercy to some extent.
There are some really strong words in the comments against speculating here. Speculating and hoarding are two results of a free market. The singles market has been created by the presence of people willing to trade cards for cards/tix. The stores/bots have created a tremendous amount of liquidity in the system, where card prices can actually get down to .10 or .15. The alternative is a barter system or maybe paying to get 2 or 3 of a card for 1 tix.
What this boils down to is that if you enjoy the market for magic singles, you're going to have to put up with some speculation, and that means that sometimes a particular card will be unavailable due to speculation.
The best speculator of all time is Warren Buffet, just saying.
I understand that both are a result of a free market...however there is a large difference between speculating and hoarding. Speculating falls more into the range of this is obviously a good buy. Good speculations can be found through Kelly Reid. Also Legacy cards are a good specualtive buy. Buying 80 of a card that will probably never become more than a casual card...thats just idiotic. Not only does it deprive at minimum 20 players of a playset it also raises the price for no purpose. I mean lets be honest people...are allies going to be good enough to compete with boros, jund, Grixis, UWR, Eldrazi? I doubt it. I may be proven wrong but i think allies will always remain tier 1.5 or 2.
There's no way it deprives a minimum of 20 players to horde / speculate whatever 80 evangels. I just checked, they're still available. Someone would have to horde thousands and thousands before they're going to start depriving anyone.
I mean unless your definition of deprivation is that they'd have to pay slightly more for the card.
Are they deprived when the market fluctuates naturally? What about when the card they need dips in price, who complains then?
shardfenix: "I seriously hope you get involved in a fatal car wreck on your way home." Saying this kind of stuff about someone for hoarding a junk rare is the most extreme thing i have heard in magic. it seems you don´t know what means to loose someone in a car accident.
obviously you missed the quote of hyperbole, and i lost a friend in a car wreck back in my junior year of high school. I know how much it hurts, hence why i wasnt serious. Maybe if you retook an english class or two you would learn the concept of hyperbole.
Hyperbole, from ancient Greek "ὑπερβολή", meaning excess or exaggeration) is a figure of speech in which statements are exaggerated. It may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create a strong impression, but is not meant to be taken literally. With the word hyperbole it can also mean an exaggerated feeling about something.
See it isnt truly serious. Do i hate the actions of hoarders? yes. Do i hope they all die in car wrecks? no if you think that then you are an idiot.
Come on dude - the most important reason to be in business is to make a profit, right? "Hoarding" is either a.) good business or b.) bad business. If it's (a) then you can't be mad - if it's (b) they'll get their own punishment, and you won't lose out (because it's unlikely one guy can "corner" a market, at least no more than MTGOTraders does, and obviously you're not mad at them, right?
you are giving me lessons copy pasting stuff from wikipedia(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbole), and yet you call me an idiot? Maybe you are the one who should retake lessons on how not to be a jerk. And change that stupic picture you have.
Mr. hide behind anonymity why so hostile? Such an awkward personal attack seems quite jerkish to me without any of the courage of at least publishing under nick so we know which faceless person you are. You're giving all the other anonatrolls a bad name.
i would not call mtgotraders a hoarder. they buy for reasonable prices and are very helpful in getting you something but may be out of stock on their site. in the course of three years ive yet to have any unpleasant business relationship with mtgotraders. honestly bringing them into this discussion is kind of a low blow.
Obviously MTGOTraders isn't "hoarding" - they're running a very legitimate business, one that pays literally the best 'buy' prices on MODO. They provide a sound service.
Yet, others who try to "speculate" are douche bags?
64 Comments
I'm not sure when you get your info and what the criteria is for appearing, but Kabira Evangel jumped from .10 to .50 in the past 2 days and is now impossible to find.
@Anon, not surprising considering the new Allies coming out. White Allies in particularly look hot.
@hammy, "Wow that card is a limited beating!" That was my one and ONLY thought when I started reading your SotP. Oh! You want to play it constructed? Nice...not sure it is all that casual. Even at the very minimum of GG1 it gives a creature a counter. This is not a small thing, when you are struggling to remove someone's already tough Scute Mob, Scath Tiger, etc. Green beef is cheap enough that this card curves right in not just as a combat trick but removal proof in response to say a unkicked Lightning Burst. I smell Señor Stompy!
On a technical note: I am noticing your text intermittently changing font size without any real rhyme/reason to it. You probably have a missing tag somewhere in the html.
Yeah I know, thankfully I managed to get 80 Evangels before they were all gone. I was just wondering what the price change had to be to appear on the chart, since that is a %400 change.
2 Comments for you, Sir.
1. Well played
2. Up yours
Stop this crap people! Get your 4x copies and move on.
80? thats disgusting. Stop raping card prices for your own selfishness. People like you make this game more expensive than it needs to be.
Here I thought he was trying to be funny.
speculators are douche bags, they are pretty much other than scammers the lowest life forms on MTGO. God this whole thing pisses me off to know end. Why completely rape everybody's sotck of one card? Are you so greedy that you couldnt even leave say two playsets for the possible new player who may want to build an ally deck? I seriously hope you get involved in a fatal car wreck on your way home. That way even if we never get the Evangels back since youre dead, you don't profit from them either. And yes I'm serious and no I won't feel bad if this actually happens, so dont waste time posting about it. And im sure this will become a recipe from josh and thats ok with me. I just had to get this off my chest.
A nice solid punch in the face knocking out a few teeth is what these people need ... but death? You must be a Christian or something...
im just very very convicted in my beliefs...and while i may have used a little hyperbole (this guy doesnt really matter enough to me for me to care whether he lives or dies) most are echoing my sentiments about hoarders sucking a big one. Now I understand if you think a card is about to be hot like recently say living end was .12 cents. Buy a dollars worth of it. That gives you 8 of them so you get a playset and sell the other four and get a 400% return. There is no need to be a bastard and buy 80 of a card. Not too mention that even with the new allies coming out, it will probably still be mostly casual.
Agreed 100%. We should all put our heads together, hack their accounts, find their addresses - and post them online!
What the hell is wrong with you people? Do you genuinely think violence and/or illegal activities are the appropriate responses to someone buying cards for a card game? If your love for this game is more valuable than the well-being of another human (who, it should be noted, is operating within the rules), then you really need to re-evaluate your priorities.
in my opinion violence tends to be an acceptable response to any problem...its worked for so far in life. And I'm in my 20's
I find that profoundly sad and hope you'll grow past this one day.
But anyway, back to the topic, does hoarding 80 cards from a set still in print and heavily drafted even make a dent in its availability?
What is profoundly sad is that you didn't get the joke. :/fail
thank you paul, apparently some people missed out on the original hyperbole included in my post...such illiterates
Soooo . . . you're being sarcastic? Because it's increasingly less clear as you go along. Perhaps your general forum persona adds to this - apparently JXC is the best editor alive, because your articles are at least readable.
Hi Fenix. Kelly Reid, kbreid on MTGO here. You might know me from such hit films such as "quiet speculation dot com". Just wanted to drop off my two cents.
You're wrong.
Why? Because, the free market allows me, and other such savvy individuals, to make purchases as they please, at the price the market dictates. If I, or anyone else who is smart enough to recognize an emerging trend in the market chooses to act upon these trends, and we are intelligent enough to recognize them as they emerge, then we should be rewarded for our capital outlay and risk.
You can't get upset at us for being smart businesspeople. After all, we use our proceeds to build our decks, pay for our drafts, or just support our cocaine habit...whatever the individual case may be.
Please don't misunderstand me. I understand that you may be annoyed that you can't buy an awful rare that's seeing an unsupported and unprecedented price spike (and if you followed the MTG financial blogs, you'd have seen that Russel Tassicker called this two weeks ago), but frankly, that is neither my problem nor my concern.
Either pay the two tickets - yes, TWO DOLLARS, a fourth of most state's HOURLY MINIMUM WAGE, for a playset, or, be smart enough to realize when hype and new set spoilers are going to cause a card to spike in price.
I'm not all that smart, nor am I especially talented, but it takes neither brains nor talent to identify these trends. I suggest you employ one or both of those traits if you plan to play on Magic the Gathering: Online. Otherwise, you will forever be at the mercy of smarter, more motivated, better-funded and better-connected individuals and you'll keep making asinine, poorly-punctuated screeds on internet forums.
To sum it all up, get a clue, learn your markets, and please stop whining.
Hoping you'll grow the hell up,
Kelly B Reid
Editor, Quiet Speculation
http://www.quietspeculation.com
Some form of allies is going to take off at least to a certain extent. Even if I only sell them for 1 each, I got them for .1 each. Would be 72 profit.
It seems some other elements of WW decks are being speculated, at least the rares are scarce despite there not being a successful build utilizing the ones I'm looking for.
If you think allies will become hot over the next weeks or so, you should invest your money into earthquakes and day of judgement (day of judgement is in the block, so again don't expect it to rise much.)
If you want an educated guess on what to buy, try malakir bloodwitch
The funny thing about speculators, bad ones as this guy appears to be, is that they can't read cards. I bought 4x of EVERY ally for $6 back in November. That's right, all of them for $6 total. Part of being a good speculator is knowing how to spot valuable commodeties BEFORE the trend. I can't tell you how many times I have bought 4x of a card well before the market inflated. The most recent being Baneslayer Angel, which I bought at 8 tickets 2 weeks after the M10 release online. Reading cards and recognizing the sleeper hits is massivly important. Back when I was still doing paper magic, I bought up all of my area's Greater Gargadons. People laughed at me saying that the card was worthless and I was an idiot. When it hit $10 going into world's, I could have made a killing off the people who had given them to me for free. I didn't because I had that many because I was attempting to see if I could fill an entire trade binder with them. Hoarding is still wrong and I don't believe it it.
To this guy's point of hoarding Kabira Evangel. If this guy was my stock broker, I would have fired him..... and possibly burned down his house. This kind of logic is like buying in Marvel Comics. It only goes up when a movie comes out, which makes you kind of dumb for owning it, and you can only sell it to idiots that are dumber than you. lol
p.s. the same trend was missed when Ravnica came out. Everyone wanted there 4x $13 Heirarchs, but missed buy 4x Life from the Loam when they were at $2. That's how I got 6 of them and then traded the extra 2 for those Heirarchs I didn't get after the price on Heirachs died.
Umm, I didn't know that Evangels ever went below $0.10? That's what I got em for.
@The rest of you:
I see something cheap I expect to get more valuable, I buy it so I can profit. I'm not going to sit on it, just wait till it is more valuable because it is more useful and then sell. I don't see what is immoral about this. It's not like anyone really wants them for any other reason right now, that's why they're cheap. They'd get more valuable even if I didn't buy them.
I see a difference between speculating and hoarding, and fail to see how this is the latter.
euurgghh.. I hate hoarders! :(
**** Free the tempest block cards!!! ****
And I hate people who picked up Baneslayers for less than $10 (actually, this last is just green-eyed envy, but I believe totally justifiable :) )
Incidentally, talking about speculating why is Counterbalance still going up?
And on a technical note: Are you aware that some of your chart links are duplicated in the list? Just thought I'd mention in case you weren't.
and that is exactly why i rare draft and wait.
i sold my 4 scapshifts for 30, i mean sure, i think i lost the hell out of those drafts, but look at me!!!
i like cards
I think speculation-buying is great if you run out and nab 4x of some dirt cheap rare (like Evangel, or even Turntimber). That's common sense and smart buying.
Going out and buying up everything in sight is a morally reprehensible action. While this is just a card game, it's the same mentality that would buy up something like fuel during a crisis. The same as selling off stock before you know something "bad" is going to happen.
It's not like that @$$hat is going to use 80 copies of any given card.
Rule of thumb - if you like casual MTGO, just buy 4x of every 10/15 cent rare from the start, that way you can play any causal deck you like and will not get caught by situations like this should one become a tourney card.
On my previous note, now's the time to go out and buy 4x of all the cheap rares and uncommons that are staples in legacy before legacy comes online!
Which do you believe those to be?
Take a look at the two T16 Legacy events (SCG) in the past month. Anything on that list that is on MTGO should be checked for price. If it's low online (say sub $1) it will probably go up when Legacy comes online. I'm suggesting it only for the purpose of getting your playset cheap before prices go up.
How is the dude with 80 Evangels evil but MTGO Traders sitting on 16 Earthquakes perfectly ok? Isn't it the same damn thing? I can guarantee you Traders didn't pay out 4.25 for any of those. I bought my set of Earthquakes for 0.40 each and I'm kicking myself for not buying more. If I had I might be able to afford a Baneslayer!
MTGO Traders doesn't go to everyone selling on MTGO and buy up stuff they know will be worth more later, then jack up the price. It's the morons who are willing to sell a rare for 5 cents to a bot that are the problem.
I mean, that's like trading in penny stocks but not buying in the 100,000s of shares.
Buying 80 doesn't seem so bad. There are sooooo many more out there.
Any idea how many of any given rare is out there? All we would need is an approximate number of drafts played for a given set and we could estimate the number of packs opened and then number of each rare.
Let's say they manage to fire off a draft every 5 minutes for 4 months. Adding a bunch of margin that's about 1,000,000 packs. Any given rare has a 1/53 chance (ignoring the mythic effect). Let's round to 1/50. This means every 50 packs nets you a given rare (give or take). This means about 20,000 of each rare exists on MTGO. Let's say you "horde" 100 rares... this is 0.5% of the total supply.
But then you need to factor in demand and number of users. 300,000 users total, 4,000 active at any given time... so let's be naive and say 80,000 users actively play (which is definitely an overestimate). If enough people hoarded it can clearly have a serious effect on the game.
I know it's really rough math, but I think I biased things against my proposition - that hoarding even 100 cards has a significant effect!
you shoud never hoard a card that's going to be played in one deck only.
furthermore, there's a problem wih hoarding
Following the supply/demand model, you'll need to wait unitl the supply runs out to increase the demand for your product.
If kabira does go up, the many players will advertise their kabira evangels on the MB.
You'll need to buy all of those again to ensure price stability or increase.
if 4 people offer them for 1, the fifth will offer them for 3x2 and so on.
The supply is too big for a card like this to hoard, and oh yeah it's in the same block...
Wow all this furor over a silly card. Really I got my allies all together as Blau did but not because I expected them to hit multiticket prices but because I wanted to play with them. Sometimes I don't get that chance but thankfully Zendikar was massively drafted and the rares for the most part were cheap for a long time. That WWK would make some of them better was a fairly safe bet.
I don't care that people hoard. In a free trade environment that is what happens. People try to corner a market or to make a dime off someone else's sweat. If you speculate/hoard you take a risk of being wrong and if you aren't then you reap the rewards. What I don't like is price inflation based on speculation about commonality. I mean Oath was $30 before one pack of Exodus was cracked online...That ticked me off despite the fact that if I had Exodus and drafted it I might have made a small bundle on the speculative price jump. I understand the reason for it, but it (irrationally) still irks me.
Anyway it is all rather moot. Until player to player trading is fixed/enhanced to the point where casual trading starts happening again regularly you will have to rely on the bots or drafting to get your cards and as such are at their mercy to some extent.
Ahahaha I like the totally serious sentiments about *killing* a human being over hoarding 80 of a Magic card. Perspective, anyone?
There are some really strong words in the comments against speculating here. Speculating and hoarding are two results of a free market. The singles market has been created by the presence of people willing to trade cards for cards/tix. The stores/bots have created a tremendous amount of liquidity in the system, where card prices can actually get down to .10 or .15. The alternative is a barter system or maybe paying to get 2 or 3 of a card for 1 tix.
What this boils down to is that if you enjoy the market for magic singles, you're going to have to put up with some speculation, and that means that sometimes a particular card will be unavailable due to speculation.
The best speculator of all time is Warren Buffet, just saying.
I understand that both are a result of a free market...however there is a large difference between speculating and hoarding. Speculating falls more into the range of this is obviously a good buy. Good speculations can be found through Kelly Reid. Also Legacy cards are a good specualtive buy. Buying 80 of a card that will probably never become more than a casual card...thats just idiotic. Not only does it deprive at minimum 20 players of a playset it also raises the price for no purpose. I mean lets be honest people...are allies going to be good enough to compete with boros, jund, Grixis, UWR, Eldrazi? I doubt it. I may be proven wrong but i think allies will always remain tier 1.5 or 2.
There's no way it deprives a minimum of 20 players to horde / speculate whatever 80 evangels. I just checked, they're still available. Someone would have to horde thousands and thousands before they're going to start depriving anyone.
I mean unless your definition of deprivation is that they'd have to pay slightly more for the card.
Are they deprived when the market fluctuates naturally? What about when the card they need dips in price, who complains then?
Raaawr let's get angry over nothing!
Kazunda Blademasters are being cleaned out all over the place.
I think you hoarded the wrong card...
shardfenix: "I seriously hope you get involved in a fatal car wreck on your way home." Saying this kind of stuff about someone for hoarding a junk rare is the most extreme thing i have heard in magic. it seems you don´t know what means to loose someone in a car accident.
obviously you missed the quote of hyperbole, and i lost a friend in a car wreck back in my junior year of high school. I know how much it hurts, hence why i wasnt serious. Maybe if you retook an english class or two you would learn the concept of hyperbole.
Hyperbole, from ancient Greek "ὑπερβολή", meaning excess or exaggeration) is a figure of speech in which statements are exaggerated. It may be used to evoke strong feelings or to create a strong impression, but is not meant to be taken literally. With the word hyperbole it can also mean an exaggerated feeling about something.
See it isnt truly serious. Do i hate the actions of hoarders? yes. Do i hope they all die in car wrecks? no if you think that then you are an idiot.
My best friend is black.
Come on dude - the most important reason to be in business is to make a profit, right? "Hoarding" is either a.) good business or b.) bad business. If it's (a) then you can't be mad - if it's (b) they'll get their own punishment, and you won't lose out (because it's unlikely one guy can "corner" a market, at least no more than MTGOTraders does, and obviously you're not mad at them, right?
you are giving me lessons copy pasting stuff from wikipedia(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbole), and yet you call me an idiot? Maybe you are the one who should retake lessons on how not to be a jerk. And change that stupic picture you have.
Stupid* + pic? :)
Mr. hide behind anonymity why so hostile? Such an awkward personal attack seems quite jerkish to me without any of the courage of at least publishing under nick so we know which faceless person you are. You're giving all the other anonatrolls a bad name.
i would not call mtgotraders a hoarder. they buy for reasonable prices and are very helpful in getting you something but may be out of stock on their site. in the course of three years ive yet to have any unpleasant business relationship with mtgotraders. honestly bringing them into this discussion is kind of a low blow.
You missed the entire point.
Obviously MTGOTraders isn't "hoarding" - they're running a very legitimate business, one that pays literally the best 'buy' prices on MODO. They provide a sound service.
Yet, others who try to "speculate" are douche bags?