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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Mar 02 2012 9:45am
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Hammie’s The State of the Program for March 2nd

This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
 

News and Discussion Items:

Dark Ascension Release Events: The online release events for Dark Ascension have begun. Details here. As usual, the Release events will include sealed queues with above average prize payouts, but TIX only entry costs. Drafts of all kinds will be available, and entry will be TIX or packs + 2 TIX, as usual. 
 
Weekly Blog: Some news from the blog this week.  The new MOCS season is starting. The promo will be an alternative art Gravecrawler. The new online rewards season is also starting. The top end cards are Jace’s Ingenuity and Windseeker Centaur (a 2/2 vigilant creature for 1RR.)   The TNMO promo is Tectonic Edge. The big news, though, is the change to the reimbursement policy. (Yes, you can will get reimbursed if a bug means you lose an event – the change is in how, not if.)
 
Magic Online Reimbursement Changing: Hopefully, you will never have to file for reimbursement. If you do, though, getting your product back has become easier. Until now, if Wizards issued you a refund because of a technical glitch, Wizards emails you a coupon to use in the store. This worked, but it was a bit clunky, and took time and effort to redeem. In the future, however, if you have a problem that knocks you out of a sanctioned event, Wizards customer service will be able to put any packs and TIX you spent directly back into your account. No coupons, no time wasted in the store, not waiting. If Wizards decides you should get a refund, they put the packs back into your account immediately. Details here.    
 

Editorial Section: Trading, Investing, Speculating and Hoarding

This really deserves a long, long article in and of itself, and I am still working on one, but I just want to cover a few bases. 
 
First of all, while I am happy to discuss pretty much anything with anybody, I have no special knowledge about what cards to buy as investments. First of all, I am an economist, but not an econometrician.   I don’t build forecast models of Magic cards – and even if I did, far too many of the variables are simply unknowable, or unpredicitable. For example, the most consistent predictor of a rise in value is the amount of play at a Pro Tour, buy name players with really good finishes. Take Rooftop Storm for example. Right now, it is played in zero serious decks – so it has basically no value. However, if LSV, PVR or Finkel rode it to the Top 8 of a constructed GP, it would suddenly have value. Predicting that increase, however, would involve predicting that 1) a Rooftop Storm deck would be good, and 2) name players would play that deck, and 3) that those players would not get knocked out due to mana screw, missed flights, illness, bad luck in the drafts, etc. That stuff is essentially unpredictable, so econometric modeling of card value is kinda pointless. Insider knowledge (e.g. knowing what LSV will play ahead of time) would be valuable, but in the rare cases where I have any, I can’t tell.  
 
In other words, if you want to talk, that’s fine, but I can’t give advice on what cards to buy to make money on MTGO. I don’t know. Moreover, I think there is only one method of making money on MTGO – become another MTGOTraders.com.   Note that that takes a hell of a lot money and effort.
 
Again, I need to do a long article on this, if I ever get time, but a few simple concepts. This is true for any investment or speculation, from beanie babies to the stock market.
 
I’m oversimplifying here, but investments fall into a couple categories – call them productive assets and commodities. Productive assets are things like stocks, which represent ownership of a firm or corporation that makes a profit by producing a product or service. You can analyze the future value of the investment by looking at what the firm makes. For example, a share of stock in Google give you ownership of a tiny fraction of the company. The future value of that share will depend on how Google does in the marketplace, etc. 
  
A Magic card is not this sort of investment. Any given Magic card is not a productive asset – it is a commodity, like gold or diamonds – or scrap metal. The worth of a Magic card is not in what the card will produce in the future – the worth of the card, as an investment, depends solely on the relative supply and demand of that card.  
 
Demand is a function of playability, which is determined primarily by tournament viability, although casual play can produce some demand at the margins. The supply of Magic cards is predictable, and – once a set stops being printed – pretty much fixed. Demand is what fluctuates. The supplies of Tarmogoyf and Steamflogger Boss are exactly the same. However, the price of one is one is over a thousand times that of the other, and that is due solely to tournament viability.
 
Over time, the value of the vast majority of all Magic cards falls. Cards are tournament viable only in relation to the number of alternative cards available. In a draft or sealed pool, a card like Chapel Geist is perfectly playable.   In a format with a larger available card pool – even a card pool as small as Innistrad Block Constructed, that card is not good enough. As cards rotate out of the current block, then out of standard, out of Extended and become playable in only Modern and Legacy, their value generally drops further and further. Maybe one in a thousand remains playable in those larger formats – and only those cards that remain playable keep their value. What this lead up means is that you cannot just buy any Magic card and keep it, hoping its value will increase. Odds are, it will lose most of its value within five years. 
 
A few sets have a very low supply. In the paper world, the Alpha and Beta print runs were tiny, compared to later sets. Online, Invasion block was not opened much, so Invasion block cards are worth more than later sets. However, the value of even Alpha and Invasion cards is driven more by tournament playability than anything else. Vindicate and Anavolver have the same scarcity, but only one Is tournament playable – and that one is $70+, instead of $0.07.
 
The problem is that the future playability of a card is fundamentally unknowable. Is the next block going to push, or punish, the decks that might contain the card. Is it going to be banned? Is the format going to flourish, or not? Is Wizards going to print a functional reprint, or a strictly better version? Unless you can see into the Pit at WotC, you can’t know the answers to these questions, which means you cannot predict the future value of the cards.
 
At best, you can make short-term guesses, and back those with your purchases. This is not really investing, though – it is more akin to gambling. It is not a total crap shoot – there is skill involved in predicting the future metagame. However, so many elements are beyond your control or knowledge, it is not pure skill. You can, for example, correctly forecast what the next set rotation may do to certain cards – but you cannot know everything that will affect the future value. For example, you may sell Primeval Titans early this summer, in the expectation that the titan cycle will not be reprinted in M13, and that this will cause the price to fall as hard as Baneslayer Angel’s price did a year ago. That seems like a solid bet, but titans could be back, or Primeval could find a home in Modern. More importantly, you are placing a bet based on your reading of WotC and the metagames – but so are a ton of others. The may suck the profit out of the market before you can act – or so many people may want to sell that the price crashes before you can unload your titans. 
 
All of these factors make buying and selling cards, as an “investment,” a highly risky business. It is akin to the “day traders” the Wall Street media was hyping a few years back. Almost all of them lost their shirts. Without insider knowledge, you just can’t guess correctly often enough. 
 
There is just one tried and true method of making money buying and selling cards – that is to become a store. You don’t try to forecast card value, and buy only as they are rising. You simply buy everything, maintain an inventory so buyers know they can get cards from you, and keep a reasonable margin between your buy and sell prices. That works – but it is work. You need to be buying and selling all the time. Doing it that way is a job – but it is also the only way to make money over the long haul. 
 
Of course, if you get into this business, you would be competing with stores like MTGOTraders.com, who are pretty good at this game. I’m not going to do that – it seems like way too much work for me.
 
Of course, if you like trading in and of itself, that’s cool. Trading is a big part of a collectible card game, just like collecting and actually playing. I have no problem with that. I am just pointing out that it is not a sure-fire way to make money in the long term – and that I cannot and will not give advice on what cards to invest in.
 
I don’t think I have said this very well, but I don’t have time to do it again. My flight to GP Seattle is just hours away, and I have to finish packing.  
 

Tournaments:

Thursday Night Magic Online (TNMO) for the upcoming week (March 8th):  Innistrad block constructed. Want to see what the block format has become with Dark Ascension? Join and play. The TNMO card for March is an alternative art Tectonic Edge.  
 
Let’s look at the Constructed Tournaments breakdown for the week of February 22nd       through February 28th.    135 constructed events fired this week – low, but a lot of people were playing in prereleases. Modern is back, Standard and Pauper are as popular as always, and Innistrad Block started playing with Dark Ascension. The other formats were deathly quiet, though. 
 
Format
Fired
Format
Fired
Standard
49
Classic
0
Pauper
34
Legacy
0
Innistrad Block Const.
21
 
 
Modern
31
All others
0
FYI: I got the number fired from the list of results, here.  
 

Cutting Edge Tech:

Standard:   SCG held another Open last weekend, this time in Memphis. The Top 16 was a fairly typical assortment, with UW Humans taking the top spot. However, a couple copies of a Heartless Lich deck showed up.   That’s at least different. I’ll also follow up with Frites, the 5color base RG Reanimator deck Raphael Levy piloted at Pro Tour Dark Ascension. If you are looking for something a bit different, check these out.
 
Heartless Lich
Garett Young, 6th,  StarCityGames Standard Open in Memphis
Perilous Myr
Phyrexian Metamorph
Solemn Simulacrum
Wurmcoil Engine
Consecrated Sphinx
Havengul Lich
Massacre Wurm
Phantasmal Image
Rune-Scarred Demon
Sphinx of Uthuun

Heartless Summoning
Doom Blade
Tragic Slip
Black Sun's Zenith
Ponder

Island
Swamp
Darkslick Shores
Drowned Catacomb
Nephalia Drownyard

Sideboard:
Nihil Spellbomb
Spellskite
Doom Blade
Go for the Throat
Mana Leak
Negate
Black Sun's Zenith
Increasing Confusion

Frites
Raphael Levy, Pro Tour Dark Ascension, Standard Constructed
Blackcleave Cliffs
Copperline Gorge
Darkslick Shores
Forest
Mountain
Plains
Razorverge Thicket
Rootbound Crag

Avacyn's Pilgrim
Birds of Paradise
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Inferno Titan
Llanowar Elves
Wurmcoil Engine

Faithless Looting
Lingering Souls
Mulch
Tracker's Instincts
Unburial Rites

Sideboard:
Ancient Grudge
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur
Memory's Journey
Purify the Grave
Ray of Revelation
Thrun, the Last Troll
Unburial Rites
 
Pauper: This week, blue control decks were back in style. The Top 8 of the recent Pauper Premier events had seven blue control variants, plus a single Goblins deck. Here’s the winner. This archetype showed up a couple times. 
 
Mono-Blue Aggro Control
FASTDEALING (1st Place), Pauper Premier #3457025 on 02/25/2012
16 Island

Cloud of Faeries
Delver of Secrets
Ninja of the Deep Hours
Phantasmal Bear
Spellstutter Sprite
Spire Golem

Brainstorm
Counterspell
Daze
Echoing Truth
Gitaxian Probe
Gush
Preordain
Snap

Sideboard
Dispel
Echoing Truth
Hydroblast
Serrated Arrows
Weatherseed Faeries
 
Modern: Modern play continues, with PTQ both online and off. If you want a wide-ranging overview of the Modern world, check out Blippy’s Overdrive! article. He lists decklists from a whole host of PTQs online and around the world. 
 
I played this deck at the last Overdrive!   I’d consider playing in in the PTQ, but I do not have the time available. It’s a gfine deck, but I need more practice. I think I lost because of bad mulligan decisions. 
 
UR Tron
Zonast (4th Place), Modern PTQ #3457026 on 02/25/2012
Eye of Ugin
Island
Mountain
Scalding Tarn
Shivan Reef
Steam Vents
Urza's Mine
Urza's Power Plant
Urza's Tower

Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre

Burst Lightning
Condescend
Electrolyze
Expedition Map
Gifts Ungiven
Izzet Signet
Lightning Bolt
Prismatic Lens
Pyroclasm
Remand
Repeal
Thirst for Knowledge
Through the Breach

Sideboard
Combust
Dispel
Electrolyze
Grafdigger's Cage
Hurkyl's Recall
Negate
Pyroclasm
Relic of Progenitus
Torpor Orb
Wurmcoil Engine
Innistrad Block Constructed: IBC is a really popular format, which I sort of understood. Now, however, Dark Ascension is here. I see a lot of token decks, in a mix of colors, but this RW one is new. 
 
RW Tokens
igwen (4-0) ISD Block Constructed Daily #3457004 on 02/29/2012
Clifftop Retreat
Mountain
13 Plains

Champion of the Parish
Doomed Traveler
Fiend Hunter
Geist-Honored Monk
Hellrider
Thraben Doomsayer

Brimstone Volley
Devil's Play
Gather the Townsfolk
Midnight Haunting
Rally the Peasants

Sideboard
Ancient Grudge
Blasphemous Act
Fiend Hunter
Paraselene
Silverchase Fox
Sudden Disappearance
Witchbane Orb
Legacy and Classic: Nothing happened online this week. The SCG Legacy Open was won by Welder MUD – an old favorite. Here’s the decklist:
 
 
Welder MUD
Zac Hicks, Winner, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open, Memphis
Goblin Welder
Blightsteel Colossus
Kuldotha Forgemaster
Lodestone Golem
Metalworker
Sundering Titan
Wurmcoil Engine
Blood Moon
Mindslaver
Mox Opal
Gamble
Batterskull
Grim Monolith
Lightning Greaves
2  Lotus Petal
Sensei's Divining Top
Spine of Ish Sah
Staff Of Domination
Voltaic Key

Darksteel Citadel
Great Furnace
Mountain
Ancient Tomb
Buried Ruin
City of Traitors
Hall of the Bandit Lord

Sideboard:
Pithing Needle
Powder Keg
Tormod's Crypt
Trinisphere
Witchbane Orb
Spellskite
Steel Hellkite
Blood Moon
Chaos Warp
 

Card Prices:  

Notes: All my prices come from MTGOTraders.com. For cards that are available in multiple sets, I am quoting the most recent set’s price. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Primeval Titan is from M12. If I list a card as out of stock, don’t assume you can’t buy it.  MTGOTraders stocks their Bots first, so the MTGOTradersBot1, MTGOTradersBot2, MTGOTradersBot3, or MTGOTradersBot4 often have the cards in stock even when the online store is out. Now, on to prices.
 
Standard prices are crashing, since everyone is cashing in to get TIX to play in Release events. 
 
Standard & Block Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 24.17
Y
$ 22.26
+ $ 1.89
$ 7.37
Y
$ 7.00
+ $ 0.37
$ 18.85
Y
$ 16.91
+ $ 1.94
$ 16.47
Y
$ 15.69
+ $ 0.48
 $ 24.53
Y
 $ 23.13
+ $ 1.40
(Huntmaster of the Fells)
$ 17.70
Y
$ 18.30
- $ 0.60
$ 19.80
Y
$ 19.97
- $ 0.13
$ 16.27
Y
$ 15.60
+ $ 0.67
$ 8.78
Y
$ 8.35
+ $ 0.43
$ 11.72
Y
$ 10.46
+ $ 1.26
$ 11.84
Y
$ 11.67
+ $ 0.17
$ 14.32
Y
$ 14.46
- $ 0.14
$ 19.78
Y
$ 18.92
+ $ 0.86
 $ 19.13
Y
 $ 15.56
+ $ 3.57
$ 6.61
Y
$ 4.72
+ $ 1.89
$ 19.96
Y
$ 19.55
+ $ 0.41
$ 25.28
Y
$ 25.28
---
$ 41.66
Y
$ 30.76
+ $ 10.90
$ 10.33
Y
$ 8.90
+ $ 1.43
$ 11.38
Y
$ 9.37
+ $ 2.01
$ 11.56
Y
$ 12.41
- $ 0.85
$ 17.23
Y
$ 14.19
+ $ 3.04
$ 16.74
Y
$ 15.22
+ $ 1.52
$ 7.00
Y
$ 7.85
- $ 0.85
$4.12
Y
$3.95
- $ 0.17
$ 3.23
n/a
$ 3.99
- $ 0.76
 
Modern prices are fluctuating again this week. I assume this mirrors what people think is good for the next PTQs. UW Tron has been posting success, so Gifts Ungiven and Hallowed Fountain are up. Zoo is falling, so Engineered Explosive is also falling – I think. Overall, though, Modern prices are pretty stable.
 
Modern Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 12.66
Y
$ 12.66
---
$ 5.78
Y
$ 5.89
- $ 0.11
$ 16.73
Y
$ 16.56
+ $ 0.17
$ 34.77
Y
$ 28.15
+ $ 6.62
(Scalding Tarn)
$ 5.00
Y
$ 5.06
- $ 0.06
$ 3.57
Y
$ 3.22
+ $ 0.35
$ 7.35
Y
$ 8.17
- $ 0.82
$ 20.63
Y
$ 23.31
- $ 2.65
$ 8.04
Y
$ 9.60
- $ 1.56
$ 3.85
Y
$ 3.81
+ $ 0.04
$ 69.52
Y
$ 70.06
- $ 0.54
$ 20.82
Y
$ 24.98
- $ 4.16
$ 14.70
Y
$ 14.30
+ $ 0.40
$ 14.93
Y
$ 13.71
+ $ 1.22
$ 25.41
Y
$ 29.57
- $ 4.16
$ 9.00
Y
$ 8.16
+ $ 0.94
$ 19.71
Y
$ 22.91
- $ 3.20
 
Legacy / Classic prices are falling, but very, very slightly.  You may see a lot of red numbers, but Legacy, as a whole, fell less than one percent last week. The total retail price of the entire list is about $775 this week, which is down about $7 from last week. This is just random noise, not any kind of trend.
 
Legacy / Classic Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 103.95
Y
$ 103.95
---
$ 27.21
Y
$ 28.39
- $ 1.18
$ 31.64
Y
$ 32.55
- $ 0.91
$ 26.58
Y
$ 26.58
---
$ 70.34
Y
$ 70.34
---
$ 25.61
Y
$ 25.61
- $ 0.47
$ 25.43
Y
$ 26.94
- $ 1.51
$ 19.55
Y
$ 19.55
---
$ 9.96
Y
$ 10.44
- $ 0.48
$ 33.94
Y
$ 34.40
- $ 0.46
$ 39.39
Y
$ 39.70
- $ 0.31
$ 16.80
Y
$ 16.80
---
$ 100.28
Y
$ 100.28
---
$ 6.95
Y
$ 7.37
- $ 0.42
$ 9.63
Y
$ 9.53
- $ 0.64
$ 5.95
Y
$ 6.35
- $ 0.40
$ 10.93
Y
$ 11.60
- $ 0.67
$ 18.94
Y
$ 20.03
- $ 1.09
$ 10.58
Y
$ 10.58
---
$ 5.38
Y
$ 6.13
- $ 0.75
$ 37.73
Y
$ 37.73
---
$ 40.22
Y
$ 40.22
---
$ 20.58
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 19.91
Y
$ 18.25
+ $ 1.76
$ 19.56
Y
$ 19.56
---
(RishadanPort)
$ 27.33
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 8.77
Y
$ 9.31
- $ 0.54
 
Pauper is a really popular format. Thanks to gabochido for advice on what to track. A bunch of cards fell this week, but not very hard. The biggest fall was in green cards. Looks like the poison deck is losing favor.
 
Pauper Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 2.82
Y
$ 2.82
---
$ 0.62
Y
$ 0.84
- $ 0.22
$ 0.77
Y
$ 0.74
+ $ 0.03
$ 4.49
Y
n/a
---
$ 2.64
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 0.88
Y
$ 0.81
+ $ 0.07
$ 2.12
Y
$ 2.89
- $ 0.77
$ 5.60
Y
$ 5.99
- $ 0.39
$ 0.45
Y
$ 0.73
- $ 0.28
$ 2.65
Y
$ 2.94
- $ 0.29
$ 1.16
Y
$ 1.20
- $ 0.04
$ 3.81
Y
$ 3.11
+ $ 0.70
$ 2.99
Y
n/a
n/a
(Accumulated Knowledge)
$ 1.50
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 5.61
Y
$ 5.97
- $ 0.36
$ 1.30
Y
$ 1.91
- $ 0.61
$ 1.61
Y
$ 1.55
+ $ 0.06
$ 1.91
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 2.94
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 3.17
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 3.29
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 1.03
Y
n/a
n/a
$ 0.99
Y
$ 0.90
+ $ 0.09
$ 1.84
Y
$ 2.82
- $ 0.98
$ 0.99
Y
$ 0.90
+ $ 0.09
 

The Top Ten:

Here’s this week’s list of the top ten most expensive non-foil, non-promo cards on MTGO. The last of the Dark Ascension cards are gone. Hallowed Fountain is back on the list after a brief hiatus.  
 
Most Expensive Cards
Price
Set
Last Week
$ 103.95
MED I
# 1
$ 100.28
Mirage
# 2
$ 70.34
Apocalypse
# 4
$ 69.52
Future Sight
# 3
$ 41.66
New Phyrexia
n/a
$ 40.22
Weatherlight
# 4
$ 39.39
Apocalypse
# 7
$ 37.73
Visions
# 8
$ 34.77
Dissension
n/a
$ 33.94
Odyssey
# 9
 

Weekly Highlights:

 
I will be at GP Seattle this weekend. GL to all attending. Until then, I’ll be trying to get work done, so I will be online little if at all.
 
PRJ
 
“one million words” on MTGO.

 

27 Comments

Card prices by davi1710 at Fri, 03/02/2012 - 11:38
davi1710's picture

Hello Pete

First of all, thanks for this series, a must-read.

Anyway, in case if you´re interested, if you can provide me the files you receive from MTGOTRADERS.COM, I can provide you for free some graphs/tables regarding statistics concerning biggest price changes and the likes for your post in a weekly-basis, much like Erik used to do.

LMK at davi1710@gmail.com if you´re interested so we can work on the details.

In a non-related note, i´m not an english native speaker, so i hope this post is understandable.

Regards

Davi

Red hot Editorial Section by Lagrange at Fri, 03/02/2012 - 13:32
Lagrange's picture
5

I agree that the only way to make real money is to be a mtgotraders.com and be well supplied with cards. Predicting prices is at best very risky for most people.

But the causal player with time on his or her hands can make money on a smaller scale.

Trading: Exploit price differences between different chains. Mtgotraders.com basically sets the market benchmark price and other chains follow. But plenty of chains have websites with prices – both buy and sell prices. It is not too difficult to make a few tix by matching up a low sell price from one bot to a high sell price from another bot. A good example is to keep an eye on the hotlist on mtgotraders.com. It is almost always possible to tix by buying up these cards from other bonds and sell then to mtgotraders.com. This is a low risk, low gain strategy. But you can make perhaps 5-10 tix in an hour. Standard card prices are usually very competitive across bots, but cards from other formats fluctuate or drift in price.

Investing: Instead of predicting prices and invest accordingly, the causal player with some tixs can also make money by investing. You can often find a high priced card that has drifted to a low price over time. For example a card like a foil Orim’s Chant. Buy it at 60% of the mtgotraders.com price and wait for a bot to buy it back for a price of perhaps 80% of the mtgotraders.com price. This strategy is a little more risky but still possible.

These strategies exploit market inefficiency but have become less profitable over time because the market is more transparent now than it used to be.

Making money on cards is a by MBeasley at Fri, 03/02/2012 - 17:36
MBeasley's picture

Making money on cards is a very simple process.

1_The first thing you have to do is go to your local, yet very large store and ask them where they get their bot prices, and they will tell you that MTGOTraders run the market, so the prices are pre-determined. They even get a print-out. Those are some of the cool things you learn when someone you know is opening a store.

A great example of this is how the market was manipulated on Snapcaster Mage. It wasn't worth 8 tickets. On a slow day prior to DKA being released, there were over 500 snapcasters opened per hour based on drafts and the numbers of packs won/used. The number stayed exactly at $8 even though online the market was flooded with them.

2_Be smarter than the average player. The value of a card is not determined by whether or not it is played on camera. That is a very small sample, and what you wrote about rooftop storm is complete BS. I mean Huntmaster was used at the PTQ, in the top 8 even, but it continually dropped.

And the BS you said about trading is exactly how you trade. When I saw a guy was playing the Zombie deck, I bought Garalf's messenger throughout the entire first game of that match for 4 tickets a piece and sold them for 6 tickets a piece. Then it stabilized at around 5, while Gravecrawler did the same movement, but dropped close to 4.

3_ Know what a staple is. If you can outsmart people, which isn't hard, you can make tickets on trading all the time.

Does anyone remember when Thrun wasn't very good and people were selling him for $4? And it took a 4 year old with a dungrove Elder and a Sword of War and Peace to figure out Thrun was good and it went up to $15? The same goes for Hero of Bladehold. It was $4. People didn't like it because they weren't using it. They wer buying Tezzeret instead. How did that work out. Remember when Spellskite was exactly $4? I mean look at the cheap cards out there. Falkenrath Aristocrat, Garruk Relentless, Increasing Confusion, Thalia, and Dungeon Geist.

So I have bought Vorapede as the next Thrun at $4 a piece. And undying is maybe one of the best mechanics ever made. So I am taking advantage of it.

4_ Buy non-basic lands. Um anyone see the prices of non-basic lands from SOM? This happens all the time. Oh ISD lands suck because there are so many. Ok, Then buy ISD lands. They will be worth a lot after SOM cycles out. That happens all the time with non-basic lands. You guys just see the here and now and forget that this is just like the damn stock market, but you have to take advantage of when MTGOtraders make their moves.

5_ Know when to buy. I knew Sword of War and Peace would drop prior to the pre-release. People who had 1 of's, or only 2, they would sell them. Every mythic across the board every time a new set comes out so people could play the pre-release, get the cards at 1000-2000% of their actual price, sell the cards, then re-buy them.

I bought a playset of Sword of War and Peace for 33 a piece when it was over 40 prior to the release.

6_ Take advantage of a system based on an antiquated pricing system. They don't deal with speculation, and therefor they buy things at their highs and sell at lows.

I can tell you the decks that will be played prior to them getting played. I bought Consecrated Sphinx at 9 because I knew U/B control was making a comeback prior to the PTQ. How did I know? Did I hack MTGO Traders? No. I saw that the price of Darkslick Shores was spiking at insane speeds, but Seachrome coast was not moving enough for it just to be a spike from Spirits.

You can take advantage of bots very easily as long as you are smarter than where the prices come from, and study your history.

Oh and if every card on TV spikes in value, how come Dungeon Geist has actually gone down since the PTQ? Actually the entire Delver deck has dropped, and all it's forms have dropped in price. Except Lingering Souls. I can't believe I sold a foil one during the pre-release to some idiot for 10 tix, and the regulars for 5. That was fantastic.

Agreed by mattlewis at Sat, 03/03/2012 - 01:16
mattlewis's picture

I agree with this post generally, except for the strident tone. Most people would do well to heed Pete Jahn's advice though and stay away from speculating. It takes some practice and discipline, and to get to that point you are probably going to make mistakes, lose tix, and be frustrated.

Some is just obvious by grapplingfarang at Sat, 03/03/2012 - 05:58
grapplingfarang's picture

I agree and disagree. Some speculating is just obvious though. If you buy Shocklands during they summer they will go up a lot in 6 months. It happens the same way every year.

Beasly I think you know more by mtgotraders at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 09:59
mtgotraders's picture
Beasly I think you know more about my business than I even do. I had no idea all of that was going on so thanks for making me aware of things I must be doing in my sleep. Want to know how we do prices? It's very simple actually. We look at the total number of cards in stock, how many have sold recently and then adjust the prices. If you see a huge spike in a price it's probably because a speculator or redeemer bought them all. I know you must think we are crazy to base our prices are supply/demand and not some crazy evil way to manipulate prices and buy everyone else out, etc. Also can you please tell your buddy that owns the shop to send me some money for my price list. Obviously he is getting that without my permission and I don't appreciate others getting a free ride off of my work.
lulz by apaulogy at Fri, 03/16/2012 - 10:16
apaulogy's picture

lulz

Re: changes in refunding. by Kumagoro42 at Fri, 03/02/2012 - 20:35
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5

Re: changes in refunding. Well, the old system wasn't really so time intensive. Once you got the coupon, it was just a matter of a few clicks in the store. To me, the new system is worse because the old system allowed me to get the virtual value of the std packs (4 tix each), instead of the current market value, which is always lower. Sometimes I just changed my mind after an aborted event, or I was playing with packs I had won, and the timely technical issue granted me a number of tix I would never get by selling the packs. Plus, WotC used to add some bonus tix to account for "moral damage" (usually 2 more). I assume now they will just put back whatever I consumed for the botched event. (Yeah, people like me, with not a good draft record, would be very happy in case of a tech issue within a limited event, because that would mean free drafted cards!)

Thanks by EpicBroccoli at Fri, 03/02/2012 - 21:35
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5

Thanks for being so honest with us Pete. Your article is invaluable and there's a reason it's the most read series on PureMTGO.

about refunds by TugaChampion at Sun, 03/04/2012 - 09:39
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5

The change is bad because if you entered with boosters in a draft and got a refund you could get everything in tix which is usually better than boosters + 2 tix.

Look, fine article. But by MBeasley at Sun, 03/04/2012 - 13:02
MBeasley's picture
5

Look, fine article. But speculating is so damn simple.

Explain to me how you don't know what is going to go up, I mean besides from Heath who rigs the market?

You buy staples. Like last week Ramp Run wasn't the biggest deck winning tournaments. So the main cards in RR were dropping. Does that mean that Primeval Titan is a bad card? No. Does it mean you can buy it relatively inexpensive at that moment in time because it isn't being net-decked at the moment? Primeval Titan is still great, and Ramp Run is still a great deck. So when the card dropped, you bought it. Now this weekend everyone is running ramp. So buy P. Titan (HIs new rap name).

I don't think you can speculate on Modern and Classic though. Too many banning's to invest and lose all you put in. But fetch lands are fetch lands. If you want to put your tix in something, that is probably the way to go.

Then you have simply put, non-basic lands. Buy them now. They always go up. Why does investing always have to be short term? I in paper you would take a P3P1 Isolated Chapel because it can be traded for a good amount of stuff.

Your idea that this isn't a stock is flawed. A stock is nothing more than (now) an electronic document that states that you have paid in order to share in the profits of a company you believe will do well. It is nothing more than a receipt just like you would get from a grocery store. It has no meaning other than you have paid that company money in order for them to use that money to make more money. The whole "owning stocks means you own a share of the company" is complete BS. That isn't how it works unless you are a minority or majority shareholder. (Minority being 1-5% depending on the market share).

If anything, this is more of a tangible asset. Not only can you invest and speculate, but you can also use the cards online. That means they are technically 50% better than stocks, minus the whole dividend thing.

But think of this. Why not buy and hold? There are a ton of things you can buy and hold for a long time that have to go up based on supply and demand, or until Heath stops manipulating the prices. (42 for a sword, or +$10 in less than 36 hours? Come on Heath)

Zendikar full art lands are something that will go up over time because they look nice and they are -$3.42 less than Unhinged lands. You can buy them in bulk and make a lot of money over time. People do that in paper. If you can get 20 for less than 0.50 a piece, then good luck.

And using interviews with WotC R&D, they already have the 3rd set of the unglued saga done, they just don't want to release it online until the price of Unhinged lands become so massive people will no longer buy them at all. Hear that Heath?

Or what about cards that will be used forever? Like anything in blue? How about Snapcaster Mage. Tell me that won't be used 5 years from now. So for the current price, now that MTGOtraders could no longer force it to be exactly $8 for that long, although they put up a good fight with S&D, it is a sound card to invest tix in because it will transcend formats.

Conspiracy Theory much? If by Paul Leicht at Sun, 03/04/2012 - 13:57
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Conspiracy Theory much? If you feel MTGOTraders is the bad guy why are you here posting on his site?

I like some of your general ideas about card value but I am rofl about your take on Heath and company. Imho Heath has NOT now or ever rigged prices. I certainly wouldn't have interviewed the guy if I thought that was the case.

That's not to say he doesn't have influence on the market. All the retailers in the game do. Collectively. And he sets his prices according to how he feels he can best profit. Others follow suit. Because Heath isn't an idiot the market looks to him as a leader. That isn't to say he doesn't take losses because I know he does.

Sorry man. I hate conspiracy by MBeasley at Sun, 03/04/2012 - 21:13
MBeasley's picture

Sorry man. I hate conspiracy theories. I know we landed on the moon, and I can accept that there was no shooter on the grassy knoll. Also I am 100% assured that Bigfoot can not possibly exist because they are Primates, and Primates need a massive amount of male and female in the population because Primates, unlike most mammals, are very monogamous.

What I can tell you is that the owner of the largest store in the area and a guy I know opening a store soon both told me that MTGO traders controls the price market online. It may be their word, or it may be the printout they get from MTGO traders of what the prices are to put into their bot.

Explain me this, since you believe the market is determined by supply and demand. At a slow time during a middle of the week day, I counted the number of ISD limited games that occurred, did all the math, packs won/packs used, etc.. There are well over 500 snapcasters opened per hour. But Snappy stayed at exactly $8 and didn't move for close to a month. Even though the market was flooded with them, they wouldn't go down.

It took the release of DKA to lower the price of Snappy since S&D would suggest that Snappy would be a $5 card. The price in paper is correct though, because sometimes getting a rare is more difficult than opening a Mythic based on the variety. Even when Grafdiggers cage was "spoiled" snappy didn't move more than 0.02 from it's $8 perch.

Look, Heath got in with his business at the right time. But if you think the entire secondary MTGO market isn't rigged, you are joking yourself.

There is absolutely no way the market runs on S&D.

There is a 0.10 % chance (I believe it is around 0.13ish but not the point) of opening a Liliana, but there is only a 0.08% chance of opening up Garruk. So why the price difference since there should be less Garruks in the system than Liliana's? And Foil Garruk is even rarer.

And if you are a casual player, you shouldn't be playing anything but Limited. It doesn't make sense. You will never be able to have a competitive deck unless you are willing to spend money, and those people would be better off drafting while selling whatever they open.

And here is what you buy.

Isolated Chapel
Sulfur Falls
Snapcaster Mage
Full Art ZEN lands.

Hold those in your collection for a year or so, you should make 3x your money, barring inflation or bannings.

Ummm... by BlippyTheSlug at Sun, 03/04/2012 - 21:19
BlippyTheSlug's picture

"There is a 0.10 % chance (I believe it is around 0.13ish but not the point) of opening a Liliana, but there is only a 0.08% chance of opening up Garruk. So why the price difference since there should be less Garruks in the system than Liliana's? And Foil Garruk is even rarer."

A lot more people want Lilly, and are willing to pay the price, than Garruk. How is this not "Supply & Demand"?

Simply put, there are less by MBeasley at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 01:19
MBeasley's picture

Simply put, there are less Garruks opened, yet there are more Garruk's played overall than there are Liliana's. Garruk is played in Ramp, and all kinds of ISD block decks. He has both STD and ISD Block play.

Liliana is not played nearly as much. She doesn't even really get much play in STD. She is rarely in the U/B Zombie deck, she is not played over Karn in U/B control, and she isn't used in the mulchy deck.

In ISD Block, she was actually used more prior to DKA being released. Now her place has been taken by Sorin.

So in essence, her price is based more on novelty than actual play. And when she is played, while Garruk might be a 4-of, Liliana is a 2-of, and usually sided out.

It ain't supply and demand there kid.

UB control is really picking by grapplingfarang at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 02:12
grapplingfarang's picture

UB control is really picking up right now, and Liliana has been a staple in modern Jund. In formats bigger than standard she sees so much more play than Garruk.

Hey now, Blippy the Aged is by Paul Leicht at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 04:15
Paul Leicht's picture

Hey now, Blippy the Aged is probably one of the few people I can point to and say "He's older than me!" on MTGO. He's only a kid in spirit. :D

Hehehehe... by BlippyTheSlug at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 11:12
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I love it when people call me "kid".

Well I am not 100% sure on by MBeasley at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 17:07
MBeasley's picture

Well I am not 100% sure on telling the age of a fish. I know you can tell the age of a tree by the rings, but fish confuse me, so sorry about the kid reference.

But overall, online, Garruk is a 4-of, while Liliana is a 2-of.

I would love to see Liliana get more play, but I don't see it happening until SOM cycles out.

Hmm not sure on your by Untoward_Parable at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 03:42
Untoward_Parable's picture

Hmm not sure on your knowledge of primate sexual habits,

"Monogamy
Ok, so if polygyny is so great then why do some end up being monogamous? It's certainly not very common:
Birds- 90% monogamous.
Mammals- under 5% monogamous
Primates- 37/200=~18% monogamous.
(Traditional human societies are about 20% monogamous.)" From "Diversity of Primate Mating Systems"

13$ more than other mammals but that's still a whopping 18%. Not that I believe in bigfoot, though there is evidence of anther version of human something like Neanderthal living alongside humanity for quite some time, of course we probably murdered them all and forgot the history but retained remnants of it as legend

IF people played purely for by Paul Leicht at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 04:21
Paul Leicht's picture

IF people played purely for profit you might be correct. However MOST casual players could care less about profit. They play with the cards they have and enjoy them in unusual ways. Read some of our casual articles sometime to see what I am talking about.

It is precisely the wrong suggestion to tell casual players to draft instead. While I enjoy drafting some sets my first love is deck building. And then playing.

I agree of course that Snapcaster will never be a bad card but I expect him to drop just a tad more than he already has at least in the interim. At least until IID stops. There is no doubt in my mind that he will be useful for years to come and is a staple. I am not sure how much of a staple but sure 3x his current price? Sure why not?

Not sure I agree that the ISD lands are worth holding for a year if you aren't playing with them. (I am.) Are you foreseeing a value in Modern that I am missing?

Full Art Zen lands are groovy. I prefer my promo guru lands because I like the art better but Zen lands have a place. Are they worth anything now? Why will they be worth more in a year?

I like the variety of Zen by MBeasley at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 17:16
MBeasley's picture

I like the variety of Zen lands more than the only 1 version of each Guru land.

But have you seen the paper prices? I saw 1 island going for 125!! Online I believe they are around 0.25ish.

But ZEN lands are the cheaper editions of Unhinged lands, and with no more ZEN being played, the prices of the lands have to go up since people, especially if new people join and want to play competitively, want the nice looking lands.

Unlike paper, where only people with the money can afford nice lands, I have no issue using the lands given for free from the box.

But without having to play them, and you can hold onto them, online is all about looks. I mean take Classic for example. People in classic will pay top dollar for cards if they are special in some ways since classic players have the most tickets and can use the same decks for long amounts of time.

I do think that the competitive player that is on some sort of credit limit would rather pay (and I see it hitting) 0.50 a piece for ZEN lands and save the $3 extra it would cost for the Unhinged lands.

@MBeasley, it sounds like you by GainsBanding at Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:06
GainsBanding's picture

@MBeasley, it sounds like you have a lot of specialized knowledge and keep up with the paper pro tournament scene. I think you take it for granted that everyone does that. Pete's comments seemed more directed to people who have no insight into how the markets work and have been messaging him in game.
Not saying your advice is wrong, it seems pretty solid. But some of the stuff like understanding the ups and downs of standard dual lands isn't intuitive without really following prices for a year or seeing those trends written about in an article. Think about the random casual player who logs on twice a week and only buys cards once a month or so. To him, prices are just random because he's not following them and not in touch with the reasons why they are going up and down. I think that's who Pete's comments were directed towards.
What I'm saying is you shouldn't give away all this advice for free. You know what you're talking about, write some investing/speculating articles.

lol by apaulogy at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 13:15
apaulogy's picture
5

obvious troll is obvious

standard prices are crashing? by vaarsuvius at Mon, 03/05/2012 - 17:25
vaarsuvius's picture

standard prices are crashing? and then you show a table with 80+% of the cards rising in price, a few even quite extreme like Sword of W&P?????

standard process for doing by one million words at Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:35
one million words's picture

standard process for doing the card price section.

1) copy the entire section from last week into this week's article draft
2) copy the "this week" prices in each table to the "last week" column
3) enter the new price for a card
4) check whether it is in stock
5) calculate the change in price (I do this in my head)
6) change the +/- and text color if necessary
7) repeat for every card in the table
8) go back and rewrite the intro paragraph based on what happened this week.

Guess which step got missed this week?

Hehehehe... by BlippyTheSlug at Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:46
BlippyTheSlug's picture

Another step that got missed was updating the link to my Overdriven! articles. This week's was #13, and #12 is linked... which explains why the view numbers for 12 are so high, and the view numbers for #13 are meh. :) I just noticed this, else I'da said something earlier.