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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Nov 15 2016 10:17am
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State of the Program for November 11th 2016
 
In the News
 
Changes to MTGO Events: Lee Sharpe published an article on changes to MTGO events. You can read it here. He outlines three main changes. First, Wizards is offering a Competitive Draft League. Second, Wizards is rolling out prestige avatars. Third, Treasure Chests are being improved. 
 
Competitive Draft League:  Wizards is rolling out a new draft league. Kit costs 15 TIX, or equivalent, to enter, and pays out only to players finishing 3-0 or 2-1. It also drops players after their first loss – in other words, it is single elim. Prize payouts are better: 3-0 garners 6 packs, 150 play points and 2 QPs. A record of 2-1 earns 3 packs, 150 play points and 1 QP.   The existing 6-2-2-2 Draft League will be renamed the Friendly Draft League, and will no longer award QPs. Otherwise, its prizes will remain the same.  
 
Prestige Avatars: Players will soon be able to advertise their skills by playing with special avatars with colored borders – colors that mimic those for uncommons, rares and mythics. These avatars will be awarded at the time leagues close. This season’s avatars: 
 
 
Treasure Chest Changes: Wizards is also changing the Treasure Chests and increasing the payout for going 4-1 by one chest. Here’s a short list of the changes: TCs will be tradeable after the Nov. 16th downtime. The play point payout will be eliminated, and that slot will be replaced with a booster pack (or, in very rare circumstances, 36 booster packs.) Wizards is adding a bunch of cards from recently released paper sets (like Commander 2016) while cutting about four dozen of the lowest value cards on the current curated list.  
 
No Community Cup this Year: Wizards tweeted that “the calendar was running out” on the Community Cup this year. Wizards had not done the necessary prep work and planning, and did not have enough time to make it happen this year, so the Community Cup is cancelled. 
 
Peregrine Drake BANNED in Pauper: (repeat from last week) Wizards has issued an unscheduled change to the Pauper B&R list. Effective November 16th, Peregrine Drake will be banned in Pauper. Wizards explains their reasoning here. Important note – because of the banning, the current Pauper league will end November 15th. A new league will begin the next day, sans the Drake. Expect commentary (and rejoicing) from our regular Pauper experts.
 
Original Modern Masters Phantom Drafts Here Now: We can draft the original Modern Masters until next downtime. The event will be run as a league, and cost either 10 TIX or 1000 play points. Prizes will be play points. In case you have forgotten, Original Modern Masters was a great format.
 
World Magic Cup Coming: The World Magic Cup will be played November 18-20. Coverage will be on Twitch.tv/magic.  
 
The Timeline
 
This is a list of things we have been promised, or we just want to see coming back.   Another good source for dates and times is the weekly blog, while the best source for known bugs is the Known Issues List. For quick reference, here are some major upcoming events.   In addition, there are either one or two online PTQs each weekend, with qualifiers running the three days prior to the PTQ.
 
Recurring Events
Timing
Power Nine Challenge
Last Saturday of the month, at 11am Pacific
Legacy Challenge
Second Saturday of the month, at 11am Pacific
No Downtime
November 23rd and 30th and December 14th
Extended Downtime
November 16th  
Current Leagues End
January
 
Upcoming and Ongoing Events
Begins
Ends
On sale now
January 4, 2017
PAUPER LEAGUE ENDING EARLY DUE TO BANNING
Now active
November 15th
Kaladesh Standard Championship
November 13th
Details here
Kaladesh Sealed MOCS events
 
December 4th, 11th, 18th and 30th
Details here.
Standard MOCS events
November 25th
Details here
Modern MOCS events
January 7th & 21st
Details here.
Amonkhet
Spring, 2017 release
 
Aether Revolt prerelease
January 27th
January30th
Modern Masters 2017 Edition
MTGO release
March 23rd
 
Flashback Schedule:
Flashback drafts cost 10Tix or 100 Play Points or 2 Tix plus product. They are you-keep-the- cards, not Phantom. These are single elimination events that pay out in play points: 200 for first, 100 for second, and 50 for third and fourth place. 
 
Format
Begins
Ends
Triple Magic 2012
November 9
November 16
Triple Avacyn Restored
November 16
November 23
Triple Magic 2013
November 23
November 30
Triple Return to Ravnica: 
November 30
December 7
Triple Gatecrash
December 7
December 14
Dragon’s Maze, Gatecrash, Return to Ravnica
December 14
December 21
 
Flashback This Week: Flashback drafts this week are triple Magic 2012. Core set drafts make for a nice change of pace at times. Value cards in Magic 2102 include Primeval Titan and Visions of Beyond.   Starting next Wednesday, we will have triple Avacyn Restored. The money cards in that format are Cavern of Souls, Griselbrand, Sigarda, Host of Herons, Avacyn, Angel of Hope and the miracles.
 
Opinion Section: The Community Cup
 
Wizards could “not find time” to organize the Eric “Hamtastic” Friborg Memorial tournament this year. 
 
Sigh.
 
 
Crunching the Numbers: Treasure Chests
 
Wizards has updated the Treasure Chests. They made a couple changes.
 
First, Treasure Chests will be tradeable starting next downtime. This means that the bots and dealers will begin buying them. Dealers will also sell unopened Treasure Chests, but I doubt many people will want to buy them. That means the dealers will primarily be opening the chests to sell the contents – and that lead us to the second change.
 
Treasure Chests will no longer contain Play Points. The slot that had been devoted to play points will now produce a booster pack. This should improve the sell price of Treasure Chests, since booster packs will have value to the bots. Assuming Treasure Chest sales take off, a BOT or dealer could easily have wound up with thousands of play points. About the best a dealer could do with those points would be to crash draft queues to raredraft and leave, which wouldn’t be good for anyone. Changing play points to booster packs makes a lot of sense in that regard.
 
Wizards announced another change, buried in the Competitive Draft League announcement: Leagues will now accept a mix of TIX and Boosters to enter the League. For now that is because of the increased price, so you have to provide 3 boosters and 3 TIX.   However, if the technology works, this might mean that Wizards could offer other payment arrangements – like two boosters and the rest in TIX. I have often found myself with two boosters, and the choice of buying another booster or paying TIX to draft. If this works, Wizards might spread these choices across the board. Please, Wizards, we have waited so long.
 
Back to Treasure Chests.  As I predicted / as was obvious, Wizards has made some changes to the Curated Cards list. They have added a number of valuable cards (Candelabra of Tawnos, Containment Priest, The Rack, True-Name Nemesis, etc.) to the curated cards list. At the same time they have cut out a couple dozen of the lowest value cards.   When I previously ran the EV (technically weighted mean retail value) of the cards on the curated list, the result was a couple cents over $5.00. With the changes, the value jumped about seventy-five cents. More importantly, there are far fewer feel-bads (e.g. Wargate) on the list.
 
Wizards has also added some of the Commander 2016 and Conspiracy II cards to the treasure chests. These have a separate column so they are less likely to get lost in the list. Since some of these are seeing play in paper Legacy and Vintage tournaments already, they should have some real value (which I have not included, because they had no prices at the time I put this together.) Here’s the new content percentages list.
 
 
 
Slot
 
Curated Card
Modern Rare/Mythic Rare
 
 
C16/CN2
 
 
Booster
Standard Common/
Uncommon
1
19%
45%
16%
20%
0%
2
5%
16%
10%
0%
69%
3
1%
1%
7%
0%
91%
 
Finally, Wizards has added the missing treasure chest to the 4-1 result prizes. When I crunched the numbers on Treasure Chests the first time around (here), I noted that players finishing 4-1 were worse off than under the old prize payouts. This change fixes that problem. The EV of the new prize structure, including Treasure Chests, is now higher at all levels that the old prize was.
 
Well done Wizards. Nice set of tweaks.
 
Cutting Edge Tech
 
Standard: The GP was Modern, and the SCG Open was Legacy, but Reid Duke won an SCG Classic, so he gets the feature.
 
RW Vehicles
Reid Duke, Winner, SCG Standard Classic Baltimore - 75 Cards Total
Creature
2 Pia Nalaar
4 Toolcraft Exemplar
4 Veteran Motorist
4 Depala, Pilot Exemplar
3 Selfless Spirit
1 Archangel Avacyn
4 Thraben Inspector
22 cards

Instant
2 Harnessed Lightning
2 cards

Enchantment
2 Always Watching
3 Stasis Snare
5 cards
Planeswalker
3 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
3 cards

Vehicle
4 Smuggler's Copter
4 cards
 
Land
4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Needle Spires
10 Plains
6 Mountain
24 cards

Sideboard
1 Skywhaler's Shot
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Fragmentize
1 Blessed Alliance
4 Galvanic Bombardment
2 Reckless Bushwhacker
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Stasis Snare
15 cards
 

Modern: We had a Modern GPs last weekend. This was the first major Modern event since Kaladesh became legal. The event was huge – over 2,000 players. We got to see what Modern is like. The answer is that it is very diverse. Coverage showed us the breakdown of the Top 100 decks. Here’s that graph.

 
 

The Top 8 had some of the usual suspects – a couple Infect and a Dredge deck - but the finals had two completely unexpected decks. Corey Burkhart put on a clinic inn how to play control. I would love to play his deck, but I know I am not fast enough to avoid timing out with that Grixis Control build.   The winning deck , on the other hand, is something I may well put together. I like mid-range control decks, and despite the name, that is what Kevin Mackie’s Skred Red deck is. The coverage is on Twitch.tv/channelfireball. I watched the entirety of Day two, and I highly recommend all of it. However, if you don’t have many hours to devote to it (who are we kidding – we watch it while playing MTGO), watch the Top 8. Really interesting Magic, with a very good coverage team.

Skred Red
Kevin Mackie, Winner, GP Dallas / Fort Worth - 75 Cards Total
Creature
3 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
3 Stormbreath Dragon
2 Eternal Scourge
8 cards

Instant
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Skred
1 Magma Jet
9 cards

Sorcery
3 Anger of the Gods
3 cards

Artifact
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 Relic of Progenitus
4 Mind Stone
1 Batterskull
10 cards
Enchantment
3 Blood Moon
3 cards

Planeswalker
4 Koth of the Hammer
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
5 cards
 
Land
20 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Scrying Sheets
22 cards

Sideboard
2 Shattering Spree
1 Grafdigger's Cage
4 Dragon's Claw
2 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Molten Rain
2 Ricochet Trap
15 cards

Grixis Control
Corey Burkhart, Second Place, GP Dallas / Fort Worth - 75 Cards Total
Creature
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
7 cards

Instant
2 Countersquall
4 Cryptic Command
3 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Spell Snare
3 Terminate
4 Thought Scour
22 cards

Sorcery
4 Ancestral Vision
4 Serum Visions
8 cards
Artifact
1 Engineered Explosives
1 cards
 
Land
1 Blood Crypt
2 Creeping Tar Pit
3 Island
1 Mountain
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave
22 cards

Sideboard
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Damnation
2 Dispel
3 Fulminator Mage
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Sun Droplet
3 Surgical Extraction
15 cards
 
Pauper: Peregrine Drake will be banned, effective next Wednesday. Check out the Pauper writers on this site for predictions about the new metagame, and this space for decklists once we get post banning results.
 
Legacy: SCG ran one the increasingly rare Legacy Opens last weekend. The Top 8 had lots of Lands, lots of Miracles, a few one-offs and one Shardless BUG. Note the Leovold, Emissary of Trest. It is one of the Commander 2016 cards Wizards will be adding to Treasure Chests next downtime.
 

 
Vintage: Just another reminder that the next season of the Vintage Super League will begin in early January. 
 
Card Prices
 
Note: all my prices come from the fine folks at MTGOTraders.com. These are retail prices, and generally the price of the lowest priced, actively traded version. (Prices for some rare promo versions are not updated when not in stock, so I skip those.)   You can get these cards at MTGOTraders.com web store, or from their bots: MTGOTradersBot(#) (they have bots 1-10), CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or sell cards to MTGOTradersBuyBot(#) (they have buybots 1-4). I have bought cards from MTGOTraders for over a decade now, and have never been overcharged or disappointed.
 
Standard staples: Standard prices are dancing this week. The overall trend is up, except for Smuggler’s Copter. That makes me happy – I have not been lucky enough to draft any, so I will probably end up buying some.
  
Standard Cards
Price
Last Week
Change
% Change
$21.07
$18.13
$2.94
16%
$13.34
$11.95
$1.39
12%
$13.94
$13.50
$0.44
3%
$33.79
$28.69
$5.10
18%
$14.78
$13.15
$1.63
12%
$25.54
$24.03
$1.51
6%
$10.16
$8.48
$1.68
20%
$25.18
$29.33
($4.15)
-14%
$12.48
$11.19
$1.29
12%
$37.24
$36.14
$1.10
3%
$9.01
$10.86
($1.85)
-17%
$6.31
$7.68
($1.37)
-18%
$8.55
$7.15
$1.40
20%
$7.58
$10.23
($2.65)
-26%
Wandering Fumarole
$8.30
$7.08
$1.22
17%
Modern staples:  Modern prices have bounced around a bit this week, but the overall trend was up. Several of the cards that had big changes last had comparable, but inverted, changes this week. 
 
Modern Cards
Price
Last Week
Change
% Change
$18.93
$17.66
$1.27
7%
$16.04
$15.46
$0.58
4%
$37.87
$34.48
$3.39
10%
$27.90
$32.17
($4.27)
-13%
$16.90
$16.86
$0.04
0%
$39.75
$36.81
$2.94
8%
$34.58
$30.10
$4.48
15%
$28.19
$28.89
($0.70)
-2%
$21.16
$20.10
$1.06
5%
$28.47
$26.03
$2.44
9%
$18.03
$18.03
$0.00
0%
$25.65
$27.13
($1.48)
-5%
$77.27
$72.61
$4.66
6%
$26.95
$20.61
$6.34
31%
$26.39
$24.65
$1.74
7%
$20.52
$21.00
($0.48)
-2%
$25.92
$24.91
$1.01
4%
$44.24
$43.89
$0.35
1%
$20.51
$20.51
$0.00
0%
$22.59
$26.45
($3.86)
-15%
Legacy and Vintage: Legacy and Vintage are mixed this week.   
 
Legacy / Vintage Cards
Price
Last Week
Change
% Change
$30.11
$29.73
$0.38
1%
$33.14
$35.11
($1.97)
-6%
$113.96
$109.87
$4.09
4%
$23.70
$21.75
$1.95
9%
$20.12
$20.46
($0.34)
-2%
$26.83
$26.65
$0.18
1%
Doomsday
$26.38
$27.35
($0.97)
-4%
$44.53
$45.55
($1.02)
-2%
$21.73
$21.29
$0.44
2%
$37.13
$37.13
$0.00
0%
$39.45
$35.77
$3.68
10%
$66.47
$68.99
($2.52)
-4%
$27.31
$30.87
($3.56)
-12%
$28.24
$26.22
$2.02
8%
$41.81
$41.22
$0.59
1%
$231.11
$246.74
($15.63)
-6%
$53.15
$52.84
$0.31
1%
$20.50
$21.96
($1.46)
-7%
$54.46
$53.99
$0.47
1%
$21.76
$21.33
$0.43
2%
$24.86
$22.35
$2.51
11%
$36.50
$32.12
$4.38
14%
$19.57
$18.47
$1.10
6%
$33.42
$32.26
$1.16
4%
Set Redemption: You can redeem complete sets on MTGO. You need to purchase a redemption voucher from the store for $25. During the next downtime, Wizards removes a complete set from your account and sends you the same set in paper.  
 
Complete Set
Price
Last Week
Change
% Change
Battle for Zendikar
$73.00
$68.58
$4.42
6%
Eldritch Moon
$135.66
$128.46
$7.20
6%
Kaladesh
$84.55
$87.75
($3.20)
-4%
Oath of the Gatewatch
$95.85
$94.88
$0.97
1%
Shadows over Innistrad
$66.79
$63.99
$2.80
4%
 
 
The Good Stuff
 
The following is a list of all the non-promo, non-foil cards on MTGO that retail for more than $25 per card. These are the big ticket items in the world of MTGO.  The list is back over 50 cards again this week.
 
Name
Set
Rarity
 Price
Rishadan Port
 MM
Rare
 $ 231.11
Black Lotus
 VMA
Bonus
 $ 113.96
Liliana of the Veil
 ISD
Mythic Rare
 $ 77.27
Misdirection
 MM
Rare
 $ 66.47
Tangle Wire
 NE
Rare
 $ 54.46
Show and Tell
 UZ
Rare
 $ 53.15
Food Chain
 MM
Rare
 $ 49.03
Tarmogoyf
 FUT
Rare
 $ 45.03
Exploration
 UZ
Rare
 $ 44.53
Tarmogoyf
 MMA
Mythic Rare
 $ 44.52
Tarmogoyf
 MM2
Mythic Rare
 $ 44.24
Wasteland
 TE
Uncommon
 $ 42.07
Mox Sapphire
 VMA
Bonus
 $ 41.81
Wasteland
 EMA
Rare
 $ 40.57
Engineered Explosives
 5DN
Rare
 $ 40.48
Wasteland
 TPR
Rare
 $ 40.43
Engineered Explosives
 MMA
Rare
 $ 39.75
Infernal Tutor
 DIS
Rare
 $ 39.45
Blood Moon
 MMA
Rare
 $ 39.45
Blood Moon
 8ED
Rare
 $ 38.19
Blood Moon
 9ED
Rare
 $ 37.87
Liliana, the Last Hope
 EMN
Mythic Rare
 $ 37.24
Gaea's Cradle
 UZ
Rare
 $ 37.13
Unmask
 MM
Rare
 $ 36.50
Ensnaring Bridge
 ST
Rare
 $ 36.48
Ensnaring Bridge
 8ED
Rare
 $ 34.94
Ensnaring Bridge
 7E
Rare
 $ 34.58
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
 BFZ
Mythic Rare
 $ 33.79
Wasteland
 EXP
Mythic Rare
 $ 33.42
Back to Basics
 UZ
Rare
 $ 33.14
Mox Opal
 MM2
Mythic Rare
 $ 31.13
Ancestral Recall
 VMA
Bonus
 $ 30.11
Force of Will
 MED
Rare
 $ 30.06
Mox Opal
 SOM
Mythic Rare
 $ 29.95
Scalding Tarn
 ZEN
Rare
 $ 29.90
Lion's Eye Diamond
 MI
Rare
 $ 29.89
Golgari Grave-Troll
 DDJ
Rare
 $ 29.38
True-Name Nemesis
 PZ1
Mythic Rare
 $ 28.76
Grove of the Burnwillows
 FUT
Rare
 $ 28.47
Mox Jet
 VMA
Bonus
 $ 28.24
Golgari Grave-Troll
 RAV
Rare
 $ 28.19
Cavern of Souls
 AVR
Rare
 $ 27.90
Containment Priest
 C14
Rare
 $ 27.46
Moat
 MED
Rare
 $ 27.31
Noble Hierarch
 MM2
Rare
 $ 27.15
Mox Opal
 MS2
Bonus
 $ 26.95
Containment Priest
 PZ1
Rare
 $ 26.83
Mox Emerald
 VMA
Bonus
 $ 26.47
Noble Hierarch
 CON
Rare
 $ 26.39
Doomsday
 WL
Rare
 $ 26.38
Undiscovered Paradise
 VI
Rare
 $ 26.09
Scapeshift
 MOR
Rare
 $ 25.92
Inkmoth Nexus
 MBS
Rare
 $ 25.65
Grim Flayer
 EMN
Mythic Rare
 $ 25.54
Kalitas& Traitor of Ghet
 OGW
Mythic Rare
 $ 25.18
 
The big number is the retail price of a playset (4 copies) of every card available on MTGO. Assuming you bought the least expensive versions available, the cost of owning a playset of every card on MTGO is $ 23,310. That is up almost $1,000 from last week. A big jump.
 
Weekly Highlights
 
I really enjoyed watching the coverage of GP Dallas. CFB has a great coverage team. You can watch all the videos here.
 
PRJ
 
“One Million Words” and “3MWords” on MTGO
 
This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
 
HammyBot Super Sale: HammyBot was set up to sell off Erik Friborg’s collection, with all proceeds going to his wife and son. So far, HammyBot has raised over $8,000, but there are a lot of cards left in the collection. Those cards are being sold at MTGOTrader’s Buy Price.  
 
 

11 Comments

1,000 play points by Sensei at Fri, 11/11/2016 - 13:59
Sensei's picture

MMA13 was good but not THAT good

Treasure chests are a great by ricklongo at Fri, 11/11/2016 - 14:34
ricklongo's picture

Treasure chests are a great idea, but Wizards keeps filling it with 100% useless stuff. I can't for the life of me understand their reasoning for the common/uncommon slot. The fact that we get a random worthless Modern rare as our "main" reward more often than not is by itself borderline offensive for a paying customer, but the common/uncommon slot really takes the cake. Like Brian Kibler noted, they're probably just copying Hearthstone - except you can transform Hearthstone commons/uncommons into in-game currency (or so I understand - I have no real extensive experience with the game).

So treasure chests are good by Cauchy at Fri, 11/11/2016 - 14:51
Cauchy's picture

So treasure chests are good except they are not good? Seems like a contradiction.

You do know that if they stuff them with non-useless crap, it will become useless crap anyway because of excess supply. I dont think treasure chests can be executed better than the old pack system.

Treasure chests are a great by ricklongo at Sat, 11/12/2016 - 16:48
ricklongo's picture

Treasure chests are a great idea, but the execution is severely lacking. I really don't think it's hard to grasp that's what I meant.

And well, if treasure chests can't be executed better than the old system, why even change?

Note that I disagree with what you're saying, by the way. I do think there's a lot of cool stuff they could do with treasure chests, as long as they play it to their game's strenght, much like Hearthstone seems to do. Like I said, commons and uncommons aren't useless junk there because they can be used in card crafting, and this is why this is the system they used. Wizards seems to have copied this common slot without any greater understanding of why this works in HS, and why it just doesn't in MTGO.

Treasure Chests by MichelleWong at Sat, 11/12/2016 - 21:06
MichelleWong's picture

Hi Ricklongo, I agree with your points.

Do you think that this execution problem will solve itself when treasure chests become tradeable soon? Or will that change simply cause an effect similar to what happened with the old booster payout system? (ie. the prices of treasure chests will drop because of an oversupply of treasure chests which will be sold to bots for tix). In addition to the issue of flooding the market, there is a significant chance of receiving junk in treasure chests, so I doubt that treasure chests will be worth many tix.

I think that treasure chests will continue to be bad for both drafters and constructed players, because their choice once they receive a payout is either to sell the treasure chests for cheap prices, or to take a gamble and open the treasure chest.

What is worse, since the drafters will not be receiving many boosters in the prize payout, they will be forced to sell their treasure chests for cheap prices if they want to use their winnings to enter more drafts. This, combined with the already significant rake, will chip away at the drafters.

"World peace" is a great by Cauchy at Sun, 11/13/2016 - 02:46
Cauchy's picture

"World peace" is a great idea, but the execution is severely lacking ;)

Treasure chests are a bad idea because they are stickly dominated by the booster pack system. Uncommons and commons are not junk because they can be used in drafting. I dont see what you can do with these chests which could not be done with booster packs. Boosters have expeditions, so no need for curated cards which are just expeditions 2.0.

Sure you can copy the HS feature for junk cards but that does not need to be tied to treasure chests.

I think being able to change by Paul Leicht at Sun, 11/13/2016 - 04:31
Paul Leicht's picture

I think being able to change the contents is what WOTC was going for with the chest paradigm as opposed to calling them boosters. And how weird would it be if you opened a booster to get more boosters (after the 16th this is what is possible to happen with Treasure Chests.)

I think C/U cards ARE junk cards in the context of anyone opening chests does not need them and they are worthless on the market for the most part. If a card is untradable because of ubiquity that makes it junk imho. C/U are ubiquitous in the extreme. At least with Junk Rares, you might have to track them down to get them for a deck.

Also the curated card list is NOT a list of expeditions. You have cards that will never see print online otherwise (Conspiracy 2, EDH 2016), and cards that are never going to be expeditions (power 9, Force of Will, etc). This is in fact something different.

I am not 100% for treasure chests. I think they have been designed with too much caution (towards the markets) and not enough reward for the opener. The only safe thing to do with them until the EV changes is to sell them and stick someone else with the bad lottery ticket. But that does not mean they can't be good. A bad idea would mean that.

It would be weird to open a by Cauchy at Sun, 11/13/2016 - 06:57
Cauchy's picture

It would be weird to open a booster with a booster inside. A low probability way of going infinte. Anyway, boosters and play points inside a treasure chest would not be needed if you just won the booster straight up. So I dont see it as superior to the old system.

Expeditions are not redeemable. So they could do anything with that slot online. Stick in a P9, it would not matter for the paper game. Maybe expeditions need to be fixed in paper but not online. So you could easily distribute any low supply card in that slot.

Nitpicking by Rerepete at Fri, 11/11/2016 - 18:30
Rerepete's picture

Your pie chart says "Infest" not "Infect" in the key. Otherwise great stuff, Pete.

I really like the change to the draft leagues, since I do not care for QPs, I was hoping WotC would do what they did. This will keep the sharks out of the kiddie pool, so to speak. It will allow newer drafters to get a good taste of it without as much discouragement, IMO.

Containment Priest by MichelleWong at Fri, 11/11/2016 - 22:59
MichelleWong's picture
5

I am sad that Wizards could not find time to organize the Eric Hamtastic Friborg Memorial tournament this year.

On a more pleasant note, the Containment Priest will sink in price, now that she has been added to the curated list. Most players who open the Containment Priest will have no use for her because they don't play Vintage or Legacy or Commander, so they will just sell her to bots and the bots will soon be flooded with her.

This applies to any curated card which sees only Vintage, Legacy and (occasional) Commander play. An exception might be cards like True-Name Nemesis, because although it will be added to the curated list, that card is popular in all 3 of those formats (and can be up to a "4-of" in Legacy and Vintage Fish decks). The resilience of Force of Will in the face of treasure chests is a good example of this type of exception.

dwarshadow's picture

I think the end result is that the vast majority of treasure chests will end up in the hands of bots which is a good thing in terms of increasing the supply of hard to find cards, but kind of removes the "excitement of opening something sweet".

For the average player who earns a couple TCs a week, even though the EV is good, the variance is too high making it very risky to open them. However, if you manage to get your hands on enough of them, the risk is mitigated and you should recoup all your value. Only bots can realistically process that volume of TCs. Therefore, it is reasonable to say that for the time being bots will gladly buy your TCs at a reasonable price making it even less likely that the average player will bother keeping them. Eventually, enough TCs will be opened and the market could get flooded at which point WOTC will have to figure something else out, but as a short term solution, this seems like it will work.