State of the Program for November 18th 2016
World Magic Cup this Weekend: The World Magic Cup is on now. Coverage is on Twitch.tv/magic.
League Matchmaking Update: Wizards has rolled out a new matching algorithm that finds matches between players with similar records more quickly. It is working well in the larger leagues. However, in smaller leagues, at time when few players are looking for games, it can repair players that have already played too frequently. (I talk about the tradeoffs involved in matchmaking in the opinion section, below.) While Wizards retools the new algorithm for low-demand leagues, they have reverted to the old algorithm in for those leagues.
Opening Old Style Treasure Chests: Paul Cheon posted a video showing him open 51 Treasure Chests. This was before the change to treasure chests, so he got play points instead of boosters, and a few low value cards that have been removed effective last downtime. You can watch video
here.
Wizards Helps Seahawks Player and Children’s Charity: American football player Cassius Marsh had his Magic collection stolen. It included Legacy Elves and Goblins, a half dozen Modern decks and some Standard stuff. Estimated value was $20k to $25k, but Marsh made it clear he didn’t care about the money – he just loved the game and his cards. Since Marsh pays for Wizards’ home team, Wizards staff reacted. They put together a “care package” of cards form their personal collections, plus some boosters and so forth from the company. Nice to see Wizards supporting a local player – also nice to see that Wizards then donated a comparable package to a local children’s charity / shelter. Note : if you have a ton of commons and uncommons, donating them to a local shelter or the like is a cool idea, but remember to throw in a ton of basic lands. You cannot play game without lands.
This is a list of things we have been promised, or we just want to see coming back. Another good source for dates and times is the weekly blog, while the best source for known bugs is
the Known Issues List. For quick reference, here are some major upcoming events. In addition, there are either one or two online PTQs each weekend, with qualifiers running the three days prior to the PTQ.
Recurring Events
|
Timing
|
Power Nine Challenge
|
Last Saturday of the month, at 11am Pacific
|
Legacy Challenge
|
Second Saturday of the month, at 11am Pacific
|
No Downtime
|
November 23rd and 30th and December 14th
|
Extended Downtime
|
November 16th
|
Current Leagues End
|
January
|
Upcoming and Ongoing Events
|
Begins
|
Ends
|
|
On sale now
|
January 4, 2017
|
Kaladesh Sealed MOCS events
|
December 4th, 11th, 18th and 30th.
|
|
Standard MOCS events
|
November 25th
|
|
Modern MOCS events
|
January 7th & 21st
|
|
Amonkhet
|
Spring, 2017 release
|
|
Aether Revolt prerelease
|
January 27th
|
January30th
|
Modern Masters 2017 Edition
|
MTGO release
|
March 23rd
|
Flashback Schedule:
Flashback drafts cost 10Tix or 100 Play Points or 2 Tix plus product. They are you-keep-the- cards, not Phantom. These are single elimination events that pay out in play points: 200 for first, 100 for second, and 50 for third and fourth place.
Format
|
Begins
|
Ends
|
Triple Avacyn Restored
|
November 16
|
November 23
|
Triple Magic 2013
|
November 23
|
November 30
|
Triple Return to Ravnica:
|
November 30
|
December 7
|
Triple Gatecrash
|
December 7
|
December 14
|
Dragon’s Maze, Gatecrash, Return to Ravnica
|
December 14
|
December 21
|
Opinion Section: Matchmaking Tradeoffs
|
I would like to crunch a lot of numbers here, but let’s face it – no one outside of Wizards knows how fast players cycle through leagues. And without knowing how fast players play through their five matches, we don’t know what it means for a league to have, say, 1,000 players. We also don’t know whether demand in leagues is roughly similar at all times of day, or if it is highly cyclical. Without knowing things like that, all we can do is make wild guesses about league participation and demand for matches.
I tried to make some wild guesses and crunching numbers accordingly, but that text deservedly hit the bit bucket.
Instead, let’s look at the criteria you can use to pair players for a match:
1. Pair players only against players in the same league.
2. Pair players quickly – minimize waiting time.
3. Pair players against players with the same win-loss record
4. Don’t pair players against players they have already played.
Ideally, you can find a match that meets all of the above requirements quickly. The pairing algorithm does that quite well. On weekends, I have generally been paired in the 6-2-2-2 draft league in a couple seconds, or less. Since that is the largest league on MTGO, and the weekends are (I assume) the busiest time, that is not too surprising.
For smaller leagues at less popular times, this can be a problem. For smaller leagues, Wizards may have to relax some of these rules in order to find an opponent. (Except the first rule – I am assuming you cannot be matched outside your league.)
For example, suppose you have a 2-2 record, and want to play your final round. However, there are no perfect matches. Instead, the following players are looking for a match.
· A player at 4-0.
· A player at 0-1
· A player at 2-2, like you, but someone you played last round.
· A player who just joined the league, so her record is 0-0.
The algorithm would not initially match you against any of these players. It will probably wait for some amount of time in case an exact match came along. After 30 second, a minute, whatever, the algorithm relaxes some of its restrictions, and tries to find a close – but not perfect – match. At that point, the algorithm has to decide which rule to bend to find a match, and by how much. Over time, I am sure the algorithm allows more and more flexibility in the rules. If you have been waiting 30 seconds, and the only available opponents are 4-0 and 0-4, it may not make a match. If you both have been waiting 3 minutes, maybe it does.
It gets even more complex when you realize that people don’t enter the pairing queue at the same time. If you have been waiting for five minutes with no available matches, and a 0-4 player enters the queue, the algorithm might think you have waited long enough to waive the rules. The 0-4 player, however, has just entered the queue – should he be paired up that far, just because you have been waiting?
It’s all trade-offs, and decisions about those trade-offs are hard. Wizards is doing the best it can.
The solution, of course, is to have many more people in the queue. That works for the draft league queue, at least most of the time. I usually am paired within a minute, even at weird times (e.g. 5:30am central time.) In smaller leagues, however, I have occasionally waited 5 minutes or more.
Standard: The results of the MTGO Standard champs last weekend are
here. For reasons I have never understood, I always see them in a foreign (to me) language. This week it appears to be in Italian. Last week it was in Spanish. A month or so it was German, which I can struggle through. Whatever – the website is a Wizards digital product; of course it doesn’t work. Cool that Aetherworks won; that deck was supposed to be dead and gone.
Modern: SCG ran a Modern Open last weekend. The Top 32 decks are listed
here. I like Tron, so this had to get featured.
Pauper: Peregrine Drake was banned, effective last Wednesday. Decklists once we get post banning results.
Legacy: Legacy has a stable of decks that routinely show up – decks like Miracles, BUG Delver, Dredge, Death and Taxes, Eldrazi, Sneak and Show, ANT, Burn, etc. Every now and then, something new appears in a Top 8 list. This one is from an
SCG Classic. Check out the creature list.
Vintage: Just another reminder that the next season of the Vintage Super League will begin in early January.
Note: all my prices come from the fine folks at
MTGOTraders.com. These are retail prices, and generally the price of the lowest priced, actively traded version. (Prices for some rare promo versions are not updated when not in stock, so I skip those.) You can get these cards at
MTGOTraders.com web store, or from their bots: MTGOTradersBot(#) (they have bots 1-10), CardCaddy and CardWareHouse, or sell cards to MTGOTradersBuyBot(#) (they have buybots 1-4). I have bought cards from MTGOTraders for over a decade now, and have never been overcharged or disappointed.
Standard staples: Standard prices are mixed this week. Not too surprising, given the time of year.
Standard Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$18.50
|
$21.07
|
($2.57)
|
-12%
|
|
$13.91
|
$13.34
|
$0.57
|
4%
|
|
$17.97
|
$13.94
|
$4.03
|
29%
|
|
$32.77
|
$33.79
|
($1.02)
|
-3%
|
|
$11.87
|
$14.78
|
($2.91)
|
-20%
|
|
$27.10
|
$25.54
|
$1.56
|
6%
|
|
$11.41
|
$10.16
|
$1.25
|
12%
|
|
$25.85
|
$25.18
|
$0.67
|
3%
|
|
$13.25
|
$12.48
|
$0.77
|
6%
|
|
$34.81
|
$37.24
|
($2.43)
|
-7%
|
|
$9.30
|
$9.01
|
$0.29
|
3%
|
|
$6.01
|
$6.31
|
($0.30)
|
-5%
|
|
$7.62
|
$8.55
|
($0.93)
|
-11%
|
|
$7.92
|
$7.58
|
$0.34
|
4%
|
Wandering Fumarole
|
$7.97
|
$8.30
|
($0.33)
|
-4%
|
Modern staples: Modern prices are up again this week. I also did some tweaking: moving cards between the Modern and Legacy/Vintage table based on where they are seeing the most play. Some of them – I’m looking at you, Engineered Explosives and Chalice of the Void – are heavily played in both formats. No matter where they go, that’s not perfect, but I am not going to update the same card on both tables every week.
Modern Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$24.55
|
$18.93
|
$5.62
|
30%
|
|
$16.80
|
$16.04
|
$0.76
|
5%
|
|
$44.26
|
$37.87
|
$6.39
|
17%
|
|
$31.79
|
$27.90
|
$3.89
|
14%
|
|
$18.23
|
$16.90
|
$1.33
|
8%
|
|
$24.72
|
$23.70
|
$1.02
|
4%
|
|
$41.93
|
$39.75
|
$2.18
|
5%
|
|
$41.34
|
$34.58
|
$6.76
|
20%
|
|
$28.09
|
$28.19
|
($0.10)
|
0%
|
|
$22.97
|
$21.16
|
$1.81
|
9%
|
|
$28.07
|
$28.47
|
($0.40)
|
-1%
|
|
$22.69
|
$18.03
|
$4.66
|
26%
|
|
$24.21
|
$25.65
|
($1.44)
|
-6%
|
|
$84.65
|
$77.27
|
$7.38
|
10%
|
|
$31.89
|
$26.95
|
$4.94
|
18%
|
|
$26.35
|
$26.39
|
($0.04)
|
0%
|
|
$25.53
|
$20.52
|
$5.01
|
24%
|
|
$28.07
|
$25.92
|
$2.15
|
8%
|
|
$46.11
|
$44.24
|
$1.87
|
4%
|
|
$22.99
|
$20.51
|
$2.48
|
12%
|
|
$21.58
|
$22.59
|
($1.01)
|
-4%
|
Legacy and Vintage: Legacy and Vintage are mixed this week.
Legacy / Vintage Cards
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
|
$30.54
|
$30.11
|
$0.43
|
1%
|
|
$33.87
|
$33.14
|
$0.73
|
2%
|
|
$119.53
|
$113.96
|
$5.57
|
5%
|
|
$20.17
|
$20.12
|
$0.05
|
0%
|
|
$27.88
|
$26.83
|
$1.05
|
4%
|
Doomsday
|
$26.73
|
$26.38
|
$0.35
|
1%
|
|
$41.18
|
$44.53
|
($3.35)
|
-8%
|
|
$24.44
|
$21.73
|
$2.71
|
12%
|
|
$31.87
|
$37.13
|
($5.26)
|
-14%
|
|
$40.18
|
$39.45
|
$0.73
|
2%
|
|
$59.47
|
$66.47
|
($7.00)
|
-11%
|
|
$27.36
|
$27.31
|
$0.05
|
0%
|
|
$31.48
|
$28.24
|
$3.24
|
11%
|
|
$42.58
|
$41.81
|
$0.77
|
2%
|
|
$224.98
|
$231.11
|
($6.13)
|
-3%
|
|
$51.78
|
$53.15
|
($1.37)
|
-3%
|
|
$19.46
|
$20.50
|
($1.04)
|
-5%
|
|
$55.41
|
$54.46
|
$0.95
|
2%
|
|
$22.17
|
$21.76
|
$0.41
|
2%
|
|
$26.74
|
$24.86
|
$1.88
|
8%
|
|
$36.98
|
$36.50
|
$0.48
|
1%
|
|
$19.99
|
$19.57
|
$0.42
|
2%
|
|
$43.31
|
$33.42
|
$9.89
|
30%
|
Set Redemption: You can redeem complete sets on MTGO. You need to purchase a redemption voucher from the store for $25. During the next downtime, Wizards removes a complete set from your account and sends you the same set in paper.
Complete Set
|
Price
|
Last Week
|
Change
|
% Change
|
Battle for Zendikar
|
$72.24
|
$73.00
|
($0.76)
|
-1%
|
Eldritch Moon
|
$140.40
|
$135.66
|
$4.74
|
3%
|
Kaladesh
|
$85.67
|
$84.55
|
$1.12
|
1%
|
Oath of the Gatewatch
|
$97.85
|
$95.85
|
$2.00
|
2%
|
Shadows over Innistrad
|
$67.53
|
$66.79
|
$0.74
|
1%
|
The following is a list of all the non-promo, non-foil cards on MTGO that retail for more than $25 per card. These are the big ticket items in the world of MTGO. The list is up to 60 cards this week.
Name
|
Set
|
Rarity`
|
Price
|
Rishadan Port
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 224.98
|
Black Lotus
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 119.53
|
Liliana of the Veil
|
ISD
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 84.65
|
Misdirection
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 59.47
|
Tangle Wire
|
NE
|
Rare
|
$ 55.41
|
Show and Tell
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 51.78
|
Wasteland
|
EXP
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 48.98
|
Food Chain
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 48.75
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
ST
|
Rare
|
$ 47.87
|
Tarmogoyf
|
MMA
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 47.21
|
Tarmogoyf
|
MM2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 46.90
|
Wasteland
|
TE
|
Uncommon
|
$ 46.25
|
Tarmogoyf
|
FUT
|
Rare
|
$ 46.11
|
Blood Moon
|
8ED
|
Rare
|
$ 45.00
|
Blood Moon
|
MMA
|
Rare
|
$ 44.64
|
Blood Moon
|
9ED
|
Rare
|
$ 44.26
|
Wasteland
|
EMA
|
Rare
|
$ 43.56
|
Wasteland
|
TPR
|
Rare
|
$ 43.31
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
7E
|
Rare
|
$ 42.79
|
Mox Sapphire
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 42.58
|
Engineered Explosives
|
5DN
|
Rare
|
$ 42.13
|
Engineered Explosives
|
MMA
|
Rare
|
$ 41.93
|
Ensnaring Bridge
|
8ED
|
Rare
|
$ 41.34
|
Exploration
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 41.18
|
Infernal Tutor
|
DIS
|
Rare
|
$ 40.18
|
Unmask
|
MM
|
Rare
|
$ 36.98
|
Liliana, the Last Hope
|
EMN
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 34.81
|
Back to Basics
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 33.87
|
Mox Opal
|
MM2
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 33.78
|
Mox Opal
|
SOM
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 33.41
|
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
|
BFZ
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 32.77
|
Mox Opal
|
MS2
|
Bonus
|
$ 31.89
|
Gaea's Cradle
|
UZ
|
Rare
|
$ 31.87
|
Cavern of Souls
|
AVR
|
Rare
|
$ 31.79
|
Mox Jet
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 31.48
|
Ancestral Recall
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 30.54
|
Mox Emerald
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 30.10
|
Golgari Grave-Troll
|
DDJ
|
Rare
|
$ 30.10
|
Horizon Canopy
|
EXP
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.99
|
Lion's Eye Diamond
|
MI
|
Rare
|
$ 29.89
|
Scalding Tarn
|
EXP
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 29.63
|
True-Name Nemesis
|
PZ1
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 28.94
|
Golgari Grave-Troll
|
RAV
|
Rare
|
$ 28.09
|
Scapeshift
|
MOR
|
Rare
|
$ 28.07
|
Grove of the Burnwillows
|
FUT
|
Rare
|
$ 28.07
|
Containment Priest
|
PZ1
|
Rare
|
$ 28.03
|
Containment Priest
|
C14
|
Rare
|
$ 27.88
|
Moat
|
MED
|
Rare
|
$ 27.36
|
Grim Flayer
|
EMN
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 27.10
|
Noble Hierarch
|
CON
|
Rare
|
$ 27.04
|
Force of Will
|
MED
|
Rare
|
$ 26.87
|
Mox Ruby
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 26.78
|
True-Name Nemesis
|
C13
|
Rare
|
$ 26.74
|
Doomsday
|
WL
|
Rare
|
$ 26.73
|
Ancestral Vision
|
TSP
|
Rare
|
$ 26.65
|
Mox Pearl
|
VMA
|
Bonus
|
$ 26.61
|
Noble Hierarch
|
MM2
|
Rare
|
$ 26.35
|
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
|
OGW
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 25.85
|
Force of Will
|
EMA
|
Mythic Rare
|
$ 25.71
|
Scalding Tarn
|
ZEN
|
Rare
|
$ 25.53
|
The big number is the retail price of a playset (4 copies) of every card available on MTGO. Assuming you bought the least expensive versions available, the cost of owning a playset of every card on MTGO is $ 23,310. That is up almost $1,000 from last week, which was also up almost a grand. A big jump.
I got time enough to go to a FNM draft at my local shop. I first picked
Panharmonicon and decided to have some fun. My deck was not insane – heck, it was not actually that good – but I did manage to get some fun stuff. I even assembled the contraption at least once: Panharmonicon,
Decoction Module and
Fabrication Module. I was at 3 life, facing down a red Gearhulk and several other creatures with nothing but a 1/2, a 0/4 wall and 9 lands. Then I ripped
Experimental Aviator. I cast it and some triggers happened. A creature (the Aviator) came into play, so Decoction Module gave me an energy. Panharmonicon made that happen twice. Both of these energy counters triggered Fabrication Module, which let me put a +1/+1 counter on a creature – and Panharmonicon made that four counters. Next, the Experimental Aviator’s make two thopters trigger resolved, which Panharmonicon turned into 4 thopters, 8 more energy and 16 more +1/+1 counters. I could have used Decoction Module to bounce the Experimental Aviator and do it all again next turn, but since my opponent had sent his entire team, and was tapped out, I just dumped all my counters on the 1/2. The unblocked 21/22 was lethal.
I also had another game where I didn’t have the Fabrication Module, but had been bouncing Experimental Aviator turn after turn, gaining energy and chump blockers. I had something like 28 energy – then I drew Prophetic Prism into the Fabrication Module and Whirler Virtuoso. Good times.
PRJ
“One Million Words” and “3MWords” on MTGO
This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
HammyBot Super Sale: HammyBot was set up to sell off Erik Friborg’s collection, with all proceeds going to his wife and son. So far, HammyBot has raised over $8,000, but there are a lot of cards left in the collection. Those cards are being sold at MTGOTrader’s Buy Price.
1 Comments
Do you think Treasure Chests are going to keep being valuable? It seems like the prize content in them has increased lately and I wonder if that was a temporary move to generate some buzz about them. I don't dislike the idea completely, but I feel that the problem was that they were taking a known-value prize and swapping it for something that could be worthless. If the chests feel like a bonus, people will like them.
There is one other major issue with this approach though. Most of the new cards that have been released via Chests are worthless to constructed players and the few that are of interest to spikes are insanely expensive and hard to get right now. Everyone wants to finally test Leovold Emissary of Trest and it's over seventy tickets!