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By: one million words, Pete Jahn
Oct 07 2011 1:04am
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Hammie’s The State of the Program for October 7th      

This series is an ongoing tribute to Erik “Hamtastic” Friborg.
 

News and Discussion Items:

Innistrad Prerelease: The online Prerelease begins October 13, 2011. Details here: Innistrad Prerelease Events. The events will be 16 player Swiss sealed running four rounds, plus Swiss drafts. The prerelease card is the Mayor of Avabruck, which seems fine. He looks to be borderline constructed playable – and more than borderline if he gets a bit of help.
 
Innistrad Release Events: The online Prerelease begins October 19, 2011. Details here. The usual events will be held – drafts, sealed queues and 64 player draft events. Prizes include two new avatars and Ludevic’s Test Subject cards for players making it to the Innistrad Championship.
 
Quarterly Development Update: Details here. The big news is that the new client is up and running in a closed beta. More users will be added over time. Eventually, the new and old clients will exist in parallel for a while, to allow users to shift at their own pace.  Other news includes upgrades to various elements which will allow the program to support a lot more users. 
 
Bannings Will Go into Effect October 12thThe new B&R list will go into effect on October 12th, the date on which Innistrad is added to the build. 
 
PT Honolulu Online PTQ schedule up now: Check it out here. The format is Innistrad sealed, and they start October 16th. The cost is 30 TIX. Note that the first event happens immediately after the prerelease.
 
Last MOCS of the Year: the MOCs champs are wrapping up for the year. The Last Chance Qualifier will be October 8th at 11am PDT. The format is sealed, and the cost is 30 TIX. First place goes to Worlds in San Francisco. GL, and I hope to see you there!
 
Redemption Coming to a Close in early November for Shards Block and M10: The redemption window closes November 7th for Magic 2010, and for Shards of Alara, Conflux and Alara Reborn. If you want to convert those digital sets to cardboard, do it before that date.
 

Errata for last Week’s Editorial Section: Crunching Some Numbers

I crunched poorly. From last week:
 
Let’s try this another way. I have counted the number of drafts listed at firing at various times. Generally, the Draft screen shows the queues, and the drafts that have started in the last four hours. Counting the most recent set, we find that approximately 500 drafts of that format fire – including 4-3-2-2, Swiss and 8-4s. 500 drafts per day means 12,000 boosters are opened. That equated to 36,000 uncommons per day, for the first few months at least. After the first expansion comes out, then people draft two packs of the main set, and one of the expansion. After the third set comes out, only 8 packs of the original set are busted per draft. Finally, once a new summer set comes out, and for the remaining 15 months that the set is in the queues, the numbers fall to at most ten percent of the number firing before the new set arrived.
 
Put another way:
 
October – Scars of Mirrodin arrives. Drafters open 12,000 boosters per day.
February – Mirrodin Besieged arrives, so drafters open 8,000 Scars, 4,000 Besieged packs per day.
May -  New Phyrexia arrives, and drafted open 4k boosters of each set  per day.
Late July – M12 arrives. Now drafted are opening maybe 1,200 boosters of Scars per day, and probably considerably less.
 
Three months at 12k, plus 3 months at 8k,, plus 3 months at 4k, plus 15 months at 1,200 is a total of about 80,000 packs opened by drafters.
 
As several astute readers pointed out, I missed a step. I needed to multiply by thirty to convert daily to monthly somewhere in there. The correct answer is probably closer to 2.4 million packs opened by drafters. Adding sealed events and boosters players just crack, make it 2.7 million packs of the main set.
 
Doing the math, that means approximately 27 million commons. For a set like Scars of Mirrodin, with 101 commons, 60 uncommons, 53 rares and 15 mythics, we get the following rough estimates of total numbers:
            Commons: about a quarter million copies of any given common.
            Uncommons: about 135,000 copies
            Rares: approximately 45,000 copies of each rare
            Mythics: about 22,500 copies of each Mythic
 
 
I hope I got it right this time…
 

Tournaments:

Thursday Night Magic for the upcoming week (October 6th):  Pauper Constructed. The TNMO card for October is an alternative art Contagion Clasp.
 
Let’s look at the Constructed Tournaments breakdown for the week of September 28st through October 4th.  115 constructed events fired. Let’s look at how they broke down. Legacy numbers are still way down, but Modern did not fire at all. I blame much of that on the fact that the new B&R lists will not go into effect for two weeks, and no one much wants to play a dead format.  
 
Format
Fired
Format
Fired
Standard
47
Standard Singleton
0
Pauper
32
Kaleidoscope
0
Momir Basic
33
100–card Singleton
0
Modern
0
Classic
2
Legacy
1
Extended
0
Scars Block Constructed
0
-
-
 
FYI: I got the number fired from the list of results, here.  
 
NIX PAX Time Spiral Drafts: Wizards is offering NIX PAX Time Spiral queues from now until next Wednesday’s downtime.   My advice – open a Tarmogoyf. Without the Goyf, the set does not have many expensive cards – just a few Pacts and Tombstalker.   Average value of a Time Spiral pack is $1.02. The cards in a Planar Chaos boosters are worth an average of $0.97, while Future Sight boosters average $3.43, but that average is heavily driven by the $78 Goyf.   Final result – if you like the format, play it. If you are looking for cash EV, you might be better off saving your TIX for the Innistrad release events.
 

Cutting Edge Tech:

Standard:  We have now had the first big Standard event with Innistrad in the mix.   Over 500 players showed up for the SCG Open, and the top decks were Mono Red, followed by UW Illusions, UW Blade, Human Aggro and Tempered Steel.   One Solar Flare deck came in eighth. 
 
Mono Red
David Doberne, Winner, SCG Open Indianapolis
Creatures
4 Stormblood Berserker
3 Chandra's Phoenix
2 Hero of Oxid Ridge
2 Goblin Arsonist
2 Spikeshot Elder
3 Grim Lavamancer
16 cards

Other Spells
4 Shrine of Burning Rage
4 Stromkirk Noble
4 Brimstone Volley
3 Incinerate
3 Arc Trail
3 Koth of the Hammer
13 cards
Lands
23 Mountain
23 cards

koth of the hammer
 
UW Illusions
Todd Anderson, Third Place, SCG Open Indianapolis
12 Island
3 Moorland Haunt
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Glacial Fortress

4 Lord of the Unreal
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Phantasmal Bear
4 Phantasmal Image
4 Phantasmal Dragon

4 Dismember
4 Mana Leak
3 Mental Misstep
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Dissipate

Sideboard
4 Flashfreeze
1 Dissipate
3 Steel Sabotage
4 Revoke Existence
3 Gut Shot
 
Humans Aggro
David Doberne, Winner, SCG Open Induanapolis
Creatures
4 Grand Abolisher
2 Gideon's Lawkeeper
4 Elite Vanguard
4 Mirran Crusader
3 Hero of Bladehold
17 cards

Other Spells
4 Angelic Destiny
2 Dismember
3 Moorland Haunt
4 Champion of the Parish
4 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Oblivion Ring
4 Honor of the Pure
12 cards
Lands
12 Plains
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Seachrome Coast
20 cards

Angelic Destiny
 
Tempered Steel
Greg Norris, Sixth Place, SCG Indianapolis Open
16 Plains
4 Inkmoth Nexus

4 Vault Skirge
4 Signal Pest
4 Memnite
4 Glint Hawk
3 Leonin Relic-Warder
3 Spined Thopter
2 Mikaeus, the Lunarch

4 Dispatch
2 Dismember
4 Tempered Steel
4 Glint Hawk Idol
2 Mox Opal

Sideboard
3 Shrine of Loyal Legions
2 Celestial Purge
3 Purify the Grave
3 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Leonin Relic-Warder
3 Revoke Existence
 
Solar Flare
William Allman, Winner, SCG Open Induanapolis
Creatures
1 Phantasmal Image
3 Sun Titan
1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Wurmcoil Engine
6 cards

Other Spells
3 Timely Reinforcements
3 Liliana of the Veil
4 Isolated Chapel
1 Tribute to Hunger
4 Forbidden Alchemy
3 Snapcaster Mage
3 Unburial Rites
3 Oblivion Ring
3 Doom Blade
3 Think Twice
3 Day of Judgment
15 cards
Lands
5 Plains
4 Island
2 Swamp
4 Glacial Fortress
3 Drowned Catacomb
1 Seachrome Coast
2 Darkslick Shores
21 cards

Sun Titan
 
Modern: The B&R list changes will affect pretty much every deck in the format (except maybe Affinity), but the B&R changes don’t go into effect until October 14th, so the events just are not firing. Paper has not held a major Modern tournament, either, so I have nothing to report.
 
Legacy: Legacy had its first big event after the bannings, and the Top 16 was a hit parade of old favorites. A few weeks ago, Natural Order Bant was the king of the format, and ubiquitous. This week, while one NO Bant did come in second, it was the only NO Bant in the list. The winner was a Reanimator deck, and we saw TEPS, Merfolk, Ad Nauseum Tendrils (ANT), BUG, Enchantress, Elves, Junk, Charbelcher, Zoo and even Team America. The format had been ailing, but it looks to be making a full recovery. Now all we need is to get the new B&R list implemented online, and the Legacy events should begin firing again.
 
Classic fired two DE this week! Well done. The first event was won by an Oath of Druids deck, with another Oath deck (piloted by YSO cast member Eternal Hammer) coming in second.   The second event saw a Slash Panther Workshops deck go 4-0, with an Oath deck coming in second. 
 

Card Prices:  

Notes: All my prices come from MTGOTraders.com for cards that are available in multiple sets, I am quoting the most recent set’s price, which is almost always the lowest. Thus, the price I’m quoting for Primeval Titan is from M12. If a card is out of stock, take that price with a grain of salt. MTGOTraders may not adjusted prices for a card until they have some to sell.
 
Standard prices are in still flux. Now that we are starting to see decklists from Innistrad Standard, we should see some cards start climbing.   Hero of Bladehold is on that elevator. We will see what joins it.  
 
Standard & Block Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 10.66
Y
$ 10.50
+ $ 0.16
$ 17.00
N
$ 15.50
+ $ 1.50
(Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas)
$ 17.95
Y
$ 17.95
---
$ 3.98
Y
$ 4.75
- $ 0.77
$ 6.27
Y
$ 6.25
+ $ 0.02
$ 8.75
Y
$ 9.95
- $ 0.80
$ 11.50
Y
$ 11.95
- $ 0.45
$ 19.25
Y
$ 19.75
- $ 0.50
(Sword of Feast and Famine)
$ 19.50
Y
$ 19.50
---
$ 12.75
Y
$ 12.75
---
$ 10.00
Y
$ 7.50
+ $ 2.50
$ 10.10
Y
$ 10.00
+ $ 0.10
$ 13.75
Y
$ 13.75
---
(Sword of War and Peace)
$ 21.50
Y
$ 20.50
+ $ 1.00
$ 8.75
Y
$ 10.25
- $ 10.50
$ 7.50
Y
$ 7.95
- $ 0.45
 $ 13.50
Y
 $ 13.50
---
$ 2.75
Y
$ 4.25
- $ 1.50
$ 1.95
Y
$ 2.00
- $ 0.05
 
Modern prices are generally down. The bans may save the format, but not until next week. For now, prices are slightly down. 
 
Modern Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 14.50
Y
$ 15.00
- $ 0.50
$ 6.75
N
$ 6.75
---
$ 15.00
Y
$ 17.00
- $ 2.00
$ 10.00
Y
$ 10.00
---
$ 8.50
Y
$ 9.00
- $ 0.50
$ 8.00
Y
$ 8.75
- $ 0.75
$ 10.00
Y
$ 10.00
---
(Knight of the Reliquary)
$ 6.75
Y
$ 7.25
- $ 0.50
$ 78.00
Y
$ 78.00
---
$ 15.50
Y
$ 16.00
---
$ 5.50
Y
$ 5.75
- $ 0.25
$ 13.00
Y
$ 15.00
- $ 2.00
$ 17.00
Y
$ 18.00
- $ 1.00
$ 12.00
Y
$ 12.00
---
$ 16.00
Y
$ 17.00
- $ 1.00
 
Legacy prices have stabilized.  Big Jace is back up this week, but the format, overall, is waiting to see what develops. In the near future, once we have a few events to scrutinize, we should see price changes. 
 
Legacy Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 112.00
Y
$ 110.00
+ $ 2.00
$ 46.00
Y
$ 49.00
- $ 3.00
$ 74.10
Y
$ 74.10
---
$ 28.00
Y
$ 28.00
---
$ 35.00
Y
$ 34.50
+ $ 0.50
$ 1.75
Y
$ 2.25
- $ 0.50
$12.50
Y
$12.50
---
$ 18.00
N
$ 18.00
---
$ 17.50
Y
$ 17.50
---
$ 65.00
Y
$ 65.00
---
$ 41.80
Y
$ 41.80
---
$ 5.00
Y
$ 5.50
- $ 0.75
$ 8.75
Y
$ 8.00
+ $ 0.75
$ 14.50
Y
$ 14.50
---
$ 11.95
Y
$ 11.95
---
$ 4.75
Y
$ 5.50
- $ 0.75
 
 
 
 
 
 
Note: cards which are staples in both Legacy and Classic may appear in either list. If you don’t see a card in one list, check the other.
 
Classic prices are not moving. The format is on hold, like the rest of the Magic world, while we wait for Innistrad. Still no word on when or how we may get Masques block. 
 
Classic Cards
Price
In Stock?
Last Week
Change
$ 94.00
Y
$ 94.00
---
$ 21.00
Y
$ 21.00
---
$ 16.00
Y
$ 16.00
---
$ 12.00
Y
$ 12.00
---
$ 14.50
Y
$ 14.50
---
$ 9.50
Y
$ 9.50
---
$ 28.00
Y
$ 28.00
---
$ 42.00
Y
$ 42.00
---
$ 42.00
Y
$ 42.00
---
$ 11.00
Y
$ 11.00
---
$ 22.00
Y
$ 22.00
---
 

The Top Ten:

Here’s this week’s list of the top ten most expensive non-foil, non-promo cards on MTGO. One minor change in the rankings, as Pernicious Deed drops a bit.
 
Most Expensive Cards
Price
Set
Last Week
$ 112.00
MED 1
# 1
$ 94.00
Mirage
# 2
$ 78.00
Future Sight
# 3
$ 74.10
Apocalypse
# 4
$ 65.00
Visions
# 5
$ 46.00
Tempest
# 6
$ 42.00
Weatherlight
# 9
$ 41.80
Apocalypse
# 8
$ 40.00
Odyssey
# 7
$ 34.50
Dissension
# 10
 

Deck Prices:

I am not going to price any decks this week. I’ll start that again a week after the Innistrad release events are ongoing, at the point we have some real idea what cards may be worth. As I write this, MTGOTraders has the Innistrad pages up, but no prices.
 

Weekly Highlights:

I’ve got piles of paper Innistrad cards, and I’m building decks. I’m waiting impatiently for these to appear online, and playtesting an online version of my States deck.
 
In the meantime, I have too much work-type work to do.
 
PRJ
 
“one million words” on MTGO.

8 Comments

Jace, the Mind Sculptor is by Gardevi at Fri, 10/07/2011 - 12:00
Gardevi's picture

Jace, the Mind Sculptor is *still* not from Dissension.

Admit it. You'll be pissed by walkerdog at Fri, 10/07/2011 - 12:08
walkerdog's picture

Admit it. You'll be pissed if he fixes it at this point.

It's just that he's sitting by one million words at Fri, 10/07/2011 - 16:38
one million words's picture

It's just that he's sitting in Breeding Pool's slot as tenth most expensive card.

Alternatively, if the card is banned in pretty much every format for being too powerful, I'm certainly not going to call him out if he claims to be from Dissension. He can claim to be from Alpha if he wants, and I'll take his word for it.

:)

nah, he's totally from by JXClaytor at Fri, 10/07/2011 - 13:08
JXClaytor's picture
5

nah, he's totally from dissension, don;t you guys remember him messing up two standards? (My Mistakes, sorry :( )

Josh, it's because he's the by walkerdog at Fri, 10/07/2011 - 13:16
walkerdog's picture

Josh, it's because he's the Mind-Sculptor... he's messing with you.

Is this the first time that by Drbenwayy at Tue, 10/11/2011 - 13:02
Drbenwayy's picture
5

Is this the first time that the prerelease card hasn't been a mythic rare since mythics have come out? Don't get me wrong, I like Mayor of Avabruck and went to my first paper pre release ever partially so I would get the foil Mayor but I'd probably rather have a mythic in the prerelease slot if possible.

the pack math by Drawingdead at Tue, 10/11/2011 - 16:54
Drawingdead's picture
5

Are you taking into account the packs rewarded for constructed de's and pe's? With that said you consistently put out great content with this series and it's a large part of what keeps me coming back to the site. Keep up the good work!

most packs won, in any by one million words at Mon, 10/17/2011 - 08:53
one million words's picture

most packs won, in any format, are used as entry into something, usually draft. Or sold to a BOT that then sells them back to someone to use in a draft.