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By: Godot, Ryan Spain
Mar 16 2010 2:39am
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Welcome back! Time to wrap up the draft I started last week. Check out the previous article for full details, but your executive summary is: after first-picking Hideous End and second-picking Crypt Ripper, black dried up and I ended up with an aggressive red-white deck that was salvaged by 10 maindeck spells and two non-basic lands from the Worldwake pack.

image

I won round one 2-1 against an aggressive black-red deck, but there were no replays to watch for my round-two opponent, who had a bye against the disconnect we had in the draft. The other two winning decks I saw in the replays looked fairly strong, so I was happy to be paired against the unknown.

R2G1

I win the roll and find a great starter.

image

If I weren’t going to draw any more cards, I’d save the Sejiri Steppe for turn three to give the Slavering Nulls protection from something and still cast the Hammer of Ruin. Since I might draw into alternative plays for turn three, though, I play the Sejiri Steppe now. Villain has a Forest and an Arbor Elf to leapfrog past me in mana development. I draw Plated Geopede, a nice upgrade to the Slavering Nulls I had initially planned for the turn. An Island comes down next to the Forest, giving me confidence that a turn-four Emeria Angel will stick. Before passing the turn, Villain casts a main-phase Harrow, suggesting to me that I’m up against a novice player (or possibly William Spaniel sending false “novice player” tells).

I draw Inferno Trap, play a Plains, attack for 3 (20 – 17), cast the Slavering Nulls, and pass it back. Villain drops a land and taps out for five mana. I’m bracing for any number of groan-inducing five drops, but instead a Seascape Aerialist hits the battlefield, further bolstering my confidence in this game and match.

I draw Spire Barrage and shake my head at how marginal it is when shuffled together with anything fewer than 12 Mountains. If I were up against red, black, or white, I might cast and equip the Hammer of Ruin to bait removal for another turn, but there is no reason to hold back Emeria Angel against green-blue. I play a Plains and swing again with the geopede (20 – 14), then drop the angel before passing.

After another Harrow, Villain produces a more intimidating five drop in Territorial Baloth, but can’t send in the aerialist because of the 3/3 angel. This is a spot where a lot of players miss the easy bluff. If a 2/3 backed by untapped Forests swings into an Emeria Angel with a tapped-out controller, there will basically never be a block, and you will pick up two free points of damage.

As it is, I take back the turn with full health and pull a Plains, which which further mocks my Spire Barrage. What’s your exact sequence of plays for this turn?

image R2G1 #1

Normally I’d want to get the Hammer of Ruin on a flier, but if I equip it to the geopede, it can attack through the 4/4. I don’t like the play of using Inferno Trap on the baloth because I still have 20 life, and if I play the Plains first and leave up a Mountain, I may be able to cast Inferno Trap for its trap cost before my next turn. I drop the Plains (which makes a bird token), cast and equip the hammer to the geopede, and swing for 8. Villain chumps the geopede with the aerialist and takes 3 (20 – 11).

The only play from Villain is a Quest for Renewal, a card that seems as out of place in that deck as the Seascape Aerialist. Between the aerialist in what appears to be an ally-light deck and a quest that is mostly unplayable, it’s official: I have to win this match or quit Magic forever. The baloth stays back on defense, and I take the turn back with the upper hand. I draw Goblin Bushwhacker and consider my options.

image R2G1 #2

The fact that the baloth didn’t block the 5/3 Plated Geopede last attack despite a single Forest up suggests that Groundswell and Primal Bellow are not likely here, but now that two Forests are up, Vines of Vastwood is on my radar. I main-phase the Inferno Trap to draw it out if it’s there, and sure enough, I lose my trap, and Villain has an 8/8 with shroud for the turn. My flyers hit for 4 (20 – 7), and I pass.

A Canopy Cover on the baloth is not the play Villain needs to mount a comeback, and I’m a Mountain away from an alpha strike as I take the turn back. I pull a Plains instead, make another bird token with it, toss the hammer up to the active bird token, and hit for 6 (20 – 1). Villain draws nothing to contain my fliers, and I win on the next attack.

R2G2

I’m feeling pretty good about my chances from here. Based on deck quality and skill level, I feel about 75%-80% to win a given game in this matchup, and I only have to win one out of the next two. Here’s my opener on the draw:

image Burst Lightning is so good. I know I don’t have it here, but Imagine this hand with a Burst Lightning instead of Spire Barrage. Sigh. I’m wondering if the Slaughter Cry would have been the better play over one of the barrages. I need to draw into cards to abuse with Ruin Ghost for it to be great, but a keeper nonetheless. Villain has a turn-two Oran-Rief Survivalist, and I have a couple of options after drawing a Mountain and Steppe Lynx:

image R2G2 #1

Slavering Nulls vs. Steppe Lynx is a surprisingly complex decision. In general you want to play your landfall creatures as early as possible, and that’s where my mind goes first. The lynx will only have power as long as I have landfall, whereas the Slavering Nulls has two power without any help. On the other hand, maximizing mana efficiency is a good habit that conflicts in this spot with the conventional wisdom of playing landfall creatures as early as possible.

I can assume that against , my Ruin Ghost will survive, as will my attackers barring combat tricks. For starters, then, I can calculate which path has the most damage potential with my cards in hand.

If I play the lynx, next turn I will drop a land, swing for 2 (2), play the ghost, and pass. Then I will play a land, activate ghost, attack for 4 (6), play the Nulls, and pass. Then I will play land number five, activate ghost, and swing for 6 (12). That’s 12 damage total.

If I play the nulls, next turn I will play a Plains, swing for 2 (2), and cast both the lynx and the ghost. Then I will play a land, activate the ghost, and swing for 6 (10). If I draw into a playable spell, great, but if not, I pass. Then I play my fifth land, activate the ghost, and swing for another 6. That’s 16 damage total. Once you do the math, this is clearly the path with the most raw damage potential.

“Maximize mana” is my default stance on almost every play choice as well. First I look for the play that maximizes my mana, then I look for a better play that doesn’t. In this case, though, I let reflexive “play landfall creatures ASAP” thinking override my default stance without doing the math, and it led to a play mistake as I ran out the Steppe Lynx instead of the Slavering Nulls. The confidence I felt against this opponent caused some of that math laziness as well. Against a tough opponent down a game, I’m probably going to work through the scenario a little more closely. Instead I basically shrug and make a play, confident that I’m likely to win regardless. “Playing down” like that is a terrible habit!

In any case, barring an unseen bomb, I am still in very good shape against blue-green with this draw, however misplayed. Speaking of misplays, Villain returns the favor by tapping all three Forests to make a River Boa, leaving no regeneration mana for my next attack phase. I draw Adventuring Gear and immediately have another complex situation. Is the play here Slavering Nulls plus Adventuring Gear, Ruin Ghost plus Adventuring Gear, or cast and equip Adventuring Gear before playing a land?

image R2G2 #2

The River Boa throws a monkey wrench into the decision. Since I won’t be connecting with the lynx again after this turn until I can take out that boa, I maximize damage by casting and equipping the gear now and hit for 4 (18 – 16).

Villain casts a Khalni Heart Expedition before dropping an Island. The survivalist cracks back for 2 (16 – 16), and the boa stays back on D as expected. I pull Goblin Roughrider, but it doesn’t change the obvious play, which is to drop a fourth land, keep the boa honest with an attack, then cast the Ruin Ghost and the Slavering Nulls. The boa blocks the cat and regenerates, and I tap my mana in the second main for my two creatures.

Except it’s not my second main, it’s my end step. *facepalm*

Like anyone who has played online with any regularity, I’m fairly paranoid about clicking through steps due to lack of lag patience or accidental double clutches on the left mouse button, but those frustrating online-only mistakes still happen. This one is particularly vexing, as failing to deploy my two creatures is a massive tempo setback. My (perceived) superior play skill was supposed to be my sure-thing advantage in this match up, but I’ve made a bad play and a click-through this game to level the playing field a bit. Knowing my Ruin Ghost won’t die to removal when I finally get my act together and summon it keeps my confidence up as I pass the turn, my mana sadly unspent.

Villain has no land drop and no play besides hitting again with the survivalist (14 – 16), which has mixed implications. It smells like a trick, first of all, but it also means I’m bailed out a bit on my mistake, as a land and another threat or two would have been much worse for me than a possible trick. A major issue is that I need Villain to pass the turn with only one green mana up to be able to take out the boa with the Spire Barrage post combat. If I can kill the boa before a major flying threat comes down, I feel I should be able to race. I draw Plated Geopede and reassess my plans with this new tool.

image R2G2 #3

The geopede is a great draw. Mana maximizing says to play a land and cast Ruin Ghost and Goblin Roughrider, but maximizing the ghost says to cast the ghost and a third permanent to abuse with it, and hold the land back. Saving the land allows me to ensure double landfall,and if I happen to have a land on top, there is no difference between having five and six mana available next turn. If I have a spell on top, I’ll have five mana next turn regardless. Basically, there is no reason at all to play the Plains this turn unless you feel moving the Adventuring Gear onto the geopede is somehow important.

Similarly, there is also no reason to attack here. “Making Villain regenerate” is not a reason to turn Vines of Vastwood into removal, and I really don’t want to provide an outlet for that unspent mana. So pat yourself on the back if you decided to play the geopede and ghost with no attack and no land drop, because that is clearly the optimal play, and I sure as hell didn’t make it. I didn’t attack, but I did play out the land along with the ghost and ‘pede.

I’ve said this before, folks, and I’ll say it again: I frequently come into these replays with one perception of how I played, and leave with another. I remembered the click-through on turn four and was ready to face that one, but I didn’t recognize either of the other mistakes during the actual game. Finding these kinds of mistakes are the value (and when you are a detailed walkthrough writer, the shame) of revisiting games via replays. You probably have no idea how badly you actually play!

Villain has a Soaring Seacliff to send in the survivalist through the air (12 – 16), and follows it up with a Snapping Creeper post combat. What can we infer from Villain’s turn?

image R2G2 #4

Either the Soaring Seacliff or the Snapping Creeper was in hand last turn since both came down this turn. It’s highly unlikely Villain left an enters-the-battlefield-tapped land in hand in the middle of an expedition, meaning the Snapping Creeper was held back. This further means that I’m almost certainly up against Vines of Vastwood, and I should keep that in mind in the turns ahead. Happily, with only one Forest up, I should be able to take out the boa after next combat.

I draw Crusher Zendikon, but nothing takes priority over the chance to kill the snake, so I swing in and blink a Plains, the geopede hitting for 3 (12 – 13) while the boa blocks the 4/5 lynx and regenerates. With the coast finally clear, I Spire Barrage the boa with the five-mana, sorcery-speed Shock and pass.

The survivalist does his tenth point of damage this game (10 – 13) while the creeper stays back, and a Voyager Drake comes down to put me on a two-turn clock, assuming the Vines of Vastwood read is correct. All the extra time I’ve given my opponent this game could come back to haunt me if I don’t find a way to either win or force the drake to chump or trade in the next two attacks. I rip a Mountain and see about making that happen.

image R2G2 #5

This is such a cool, challenging board. If you breezed through this decision point and have skipped ahead to see what I did without coming up with your own plan, I challenge you to go back and work this one through before reading on.

The Ruin Ghost is pretty nutty in this spot, producing an extra 6 points of power and toughness. Ideally, I would cast the Crusher Zendikon, equip it with the Adventuring Gear, play a land, and activate the ghost, making an 8/6 hasty trampler and forcing Villain to chump with both blockers. Unfortunately, I need a land in hand that can pay for the Ruin Ghost activation to be able to make that play. Instead, I do the next-best thing, which is to make a 6/4 hasty trampler. I play the Mountain which double-pumps the lynx and single-pumps the geopede, cast the zendikon on a Plains, move the Adventuring Gear onto it, and attack in with a Plains and ghost at the ready. This play will leave me quite vulnerable to a counterattack, but even assuming the Vines of Vastwood, it would only get me to 1.

The Snapping Creeper chumps the lynx and the rest go unblocked. I activate the Ruin Ghost, put a mess of +2/+2s on the stack, and when it all resolves, I slam in for 11, putting Villain on life support at 10 – 2.

image R2G2 #6

The last gasp is a Horizon Drake with the telltale double green up. I fail to draw a land, so with the anticipated Vines of Vastwood and blocking, Villain hangs on at 2, but with a crippled board, I hit for the kill on the following attack.

Mistakes almost gave me enough rope to hang myself this game, and if Villain had a Groundswell or a Primal Bellow to go along with that Vines of Vastwood, I would have faced game three in what I felt should have been an easy match. Game two was an absolute clinic for the potential power of the Ruin Ghost, though, as it ultimately saved me from my mistakes when it finally hit the battlefield. Time to tighten up and take it down!

R3G1

Thanks to six available games via replays, I have a near-complete decklist for my finals opponent:

image I can see how a deck like this could make the finals based on small flyers equipped with Trusty Machete and Basilisk Collar, but I like my chances If I can keep key fliers out of the air with my removal, or connect with the Hammer of Ruin against all that equipment.

I win the roll and start with a hot seven:

image That’s an awfully strong first three turns regardless of what I draw. Villain keeps as well, and I drop the Steppe Lynx turn one, but the answer of Island, Basilisk Collar shatters my dreams of an unstoppable start. I draw Spire Barrage, drop the Mountain and Plated Geopede, then hit for 2 with the lynx (20 – 18) before passing. My hopes that the collar won’t have a target are in vain, but at least the turn-two Welkin Tern can’t block my landfallers. The race is on.

I pull Smoldering Spires and work out which land to play. What’s your choice?

image R3G1 #1

Smoldering Spires on turn four should take care of any blocker besides Calcite Snapper, ensuring that I’ll hit for 5 this turn and 7 next, which even a collared tern is going to have a hard time racing. To set up for that, the play here is the Sejiri Steppe. From there I attack for 5 (20 – 13) and tap out for the Slavering Nulls. Villain casts an unkicked Æther Figment and a Blazing Torch instead of equipping the collar, and sends the tern in for 2 (18 - 13).

I untap and draw a Mountain. What’s the best plan to win this race?

image R3G1 #2

Since Villain clearly has equipment plans for the figment, there’s no way I’ll be blocked this turn, making the “spell” side of Smoldering Spires currently irrelevant. I could play it anyway so that I’m guaranteed to be able to cast Spire Barrage next turn, but I’m willing to put off casting the barrage for a turn for the chance to make relevant use of the spire’s ability to take out a blocker. I expect my geopede to die to the torch before my next attack, but if a relevant blocker comes down for the lynx and the nulls, waiting to play Smoldering Spires could be worth 4 points of damage. I play the Mountain, attack unblocked for 7 (18 – 6), and pass back the turn.

After playing an Island, Villain equips the torch to the figment and immediately takes out the Plated Geopede. The Welkin Tern then dons the collar and attacks for a lifelinked 2 (16 – 8). I pull Zektar Shrine Expedition, cast it, and drop the spires. It doesn’t force anything through that wouldn’t have connected otherwise, but it does pump the lynx to continue the pressure, and I hit for 4 (16 – 4).

In an odd play, Villain casts an unkicked Kor Sanctifiers despite my expedition on the table. With a blue mana left up, this is either a mistake or a telegraph of Whiplash Trap, although there wasn’t one in the 21 spells I saw in the replays. The tern swings life totals again, putting the tally at 14 – 6. I take the turn back after no further play or land drop. My friend the Ruin Ghost is waiting on top, and I have an interesting decision with no profitable attack: clear the board now with Chain Reaction, or cast the ghost and resume my aggression next turn?

image R3G1 #3

With the Sejiri Steppe out, I may as well lead with the ghost here. I can blink the steppe before a Chain Reaction to ensure that my best creature lives, and with any land drop, I will be able to complete the Zektar Shrine Expedition with help from the ghost. I cast the ghost and pass.

Villain again has no land drop, but turns one of his Plains into a Guardian Zendikon before attacking all-out for 5 damage, 2 of it lifelinked (9 – 8). I pull a Mountain. What’s your play?

image R3G1 #4

There are two potential tricks to consider, Shieldmate's Blessing and Veteran's Reflexes. Neither one showed up in Villain's replays, and neither one would be sufficient to stop a ghost-fuelled alpha strike, so if you said “win target game,” you are correct! The play here is to drop the Mountain, blink the Smoldering Spires to make the zendikon unable to block this turn, crack the now-completed expedition, and attack with a 4/5, a 2/1, and a 7/1 trample. I earn a concession as soon as my team hits the red zone.

Outracing a turn-one Basilisk Collar feels pretty good!

R3G2

I have an easy keep on my starting seven:

image

I’m particularly looking forward to sanctifying or hammering some serious ruin on any Basilisk Collars that might threaten me this game. A few lands in the next several turns and I should be golden.

Villain opens on Halimar Depths, and I draw Chain Reaction. In an unsurprising development given the number of them I passed, Villain again has a turn-two Welkin Tern. I pull Smoldering Spires and cast the Zektar Shrine Expedition off the Plains and Mountain. The unkicked Æther Figment reappears, joined by a Trusty Machete, and I take 2 from the tern (18 – 20). Back on me, I pull Steppe Lynx. What’s the plan?

image R3G2 #1

I could get greedy and set up for a devastating Chain Reaction, but I’d rather just have that as a backup plan, as I’ll be in great shape with any land, especially a Plains. I run out the Steppe Lynx and play the Smoldering Spires, intending to take out something with Inferno Trap before untapping for my next turn. Then, if I can find a land, I can cast and equip the Hammer of Ruin, and eat the machete with my 4/3 kitty.

Villain doesn’t slow down for a second, hitting me for 3 (15 – 20) and showing why the machete went unequipped by dropping a land, a Horizon Drake and the Basilisk Collar. Yikes! My Inferno Trap makes quick work of the 3/1 flyer, but if I don’t rip a land, that next attack is gonna hurt.

My pleas to Grog go unheeded as I pull a Kor Cartographer off the top. Brutal. Now it’s getting uncomfortable. Obviously I need to pull a land, but should I play out the Goblin Roughrider, the Hammer of Ruin, or sit back and hope to blow the board next turn with Chain Reaction?

image R3G2 #2

If I think I can come back from this without the Chain Reaction, I should cast the roughrider and hope for a land to cast and equip the hammer for some surprise equipment destruction next turn. If I feel I have to blow up the board and rebuild to come back from this spot, I should go ahead and cast the hammer. I hate tipping my hand that way, but if I’m planning to use the Chain Reaction, I might as well play the one thing I have that doesn’t die to it.

Looking at this now, I like playing to the Chain Reaction and dropping the hammer. While it will give Villain the heads up to protect the equipment, that at least means saving some damage by dissuading an all-out attack or forcing the commitment of additional creatures to the board. In the game, I opt for the roughrider play, which is not unreasonable. If Villain spends next turn equipping and swinging, the follow-up hammer play will draw things close in a hurry.

Villain opts to equip the machete to the tern, but spends the other two mana on a Treasure Hunt that hits two Islands before finding a Wind Zendikon. I take 5 from the all-out attack (10 – 20) and beseech Grog once again for a basic land. Instead, Emeria Angel is waiting for me. Nothing to do now but hit for 3 with the goblin (10 – 17), cast the hammer and wait for my final shot at a land before succumbing to the attacks.

Wind Zendikon joins enemy ranks, the tern collars up, and I take 6 (4 – 21) as the figment stays back to block whatever might carry the hammer. It proves unneeded, as I draw Slavering Nulls and fall to the air force.

image R3G2 #3

Frustrating to be a land away from recovery for three draws, but nothing to do but curse Grog and head into game 3…

R3G3

Back on the play, I check my seven:

image

Fledgling Griffin into Searing Blaze is fine, and a second white source could turn this into a blowout if I face any of that juicy equipment. Villain also keeps, and we’re off.

After drawing another Mountain, the griffin is the first play of the game. Villain answers with Kor Skyfisher, probably the one I passed to take the angel. Had another Welkin Tern come down, the question of whether or not to use the Searing Blaze might be more interesting. As it is, clearing the way for an attack, dealing 3 to the dome, and Time Walking Villain thanks to the skyfisher land bounce is a no-brainer, even having drawn an alternate play in Goblin Roughrider. The griffin piles on for 2 more (20 – 15) and I pass it back.

Replaying the Island and casting Ondu Cleric gains back a life (20 – 16), but I pull a Plains off the top that threatens to blow the game open. Are we running the angel out there or playing around removal?

image R3G3 #1

The only removal with the potential to punish me for playing out the angel is Journey to Nowhere, and the Kor Sanctifiers are nice insurance against that possibility. I connect for 2 with the griffin (20 – 14) and cast Emeria Angel. Villain has a Plains but no further play. I draw another Mountain, make a bird off landfall, and swing for 5 (20 – 9). I add the Goblin Roughrider to the team and pass.

Perhaps flustered by the onslaught, Villain casts an annoying maindeck Join the Ranks instead of waiting for combat and gains back 6 life (20 – 15). The hasty play definitely buys Villain some time, though, and I take back the the turn looking to apply more pressure. A Mountain means I’ll eventually get another bird, but should I cast the unkicked Kor Sanctifiers here? Also, what am I attacking with this turn?

image R3G3 #2

I want to apply pressure, yes, but given what I know of this deck, Kor Sanctifiers is a Disenchant that comes with a 2/3 body, not a 2/3 body with an optional Disenchant. Also, I have the major upper hand, and many of the things that could take it from me (Journey to Nowhere, Paralyzing Grasp, Vapor Snare) are solved by a kicked sanctifiers. I’m also willing to trade my roughrider for a couple of allies, so I attack with everything but the freshly-made bird token. The soldiers trade with the goblin as I hit for 6 and pass (20 – 9).

Right on cue, Villain has a fifth land and a Vapor Snare for my Emeria Angel. I prepare for the soul-crushing sanctifiers, but imageI rip Adventuring Gear and cast and equip that to a bird token first. Then I spend four on the kicked sanctifiers before dropping my land, emptying my hand in a glorious reversal of the reversal. Doing 6 on the attack (20 – 3) effectively seals the deal against anything but Day of Judgment.

image R3G3 #3

A Horizon Drake and a Guardian Zendikon are no substitute for Day of Judgment, and I take down the match on the next attack.

Takeaways

Ruin Ghost: The ghost was great for me, living up to the “game-changer” billing I gave it in my Worldwake preview article. I had many ways to abuse it, though, with Adventuring Gear, Steppe Lynx, Plated Geopede, Emeria Angel, Smoldering Spires, Sejiri Steppe, and to a lesser extent Fledgling Griffin and Zektar Shrine Expedition. In a deck with zero landfall, it is a terrible 1/1 for . So how many outlets for abuse do you need before it is playable, and how many before it is great? I think I want three solid uses for the Ruin Ghost before I want to run it, or two that include at least one near-broken interaction like Ob Nixilis, the Fallen, Rampaging Baloths, or Admonition Angel. At five or more solid interactions, it starts to become very good, with the likelihood of multiple abuses on board at the same time being much higher. If you are in white-blue with good landfall uses, watch for the Tideforce Elemental/Ruin Ghost combo, which I have been running with reasonable success in casual constructed.

Spire Barrage: It was obviously weak in many spots throughout my matches, but it also came through on multiple occasions by being flexible enough to damage creatures or players. Since I had no other competition for five drops, I’m OK with my choice to run them over the alternatives in the sideboard, but it is a very weak card with fewer than 12 maindeck Mountains. Replace the two Spire Barrages with two pieces of top red-white removal and this deck goes from solid to sick.

Sejiri Steppe: Obviously great with Ruin Ghost, most of the time Smoldering Spires was actually better at enabling aggression. Sejiri Steppe seems almost unplayable in a control deck, where removing Paralyzing Grasp is about the only use I can come up with off the top of my head.

Black: Still drying up after 2-3 picks with great regularity. If you first pick a black card, read those signals carefully, and have your backup plan ready in case you are cut off.

Well, it was nice to kick off my ZZW drafting with a win, and I learned some lessons along the way. I’m not sure when my next walkthrough will go up, so if you are the RSS type, you can subscribe to my content alert blog to get a heads up when any new Magic content from me hits the web. Thanks for reading, and happy drafting!


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22 Comments

R2G2 #5 by Felorin at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 09:27
Felorin's picture
4

In your play at R2G2 #5, I wonder if you could have had a decent enough shot at the kill if you'd left the adventuring gear on the Lynx, so you have one more mana available to throw Slavering Nulls out there as insurance? That way if his topdeck is another pump spell, your chump block means you survive another turn, presuming he wasn't sandbagging a land drop. He can't cast double vines to pump the drake to 10 without another forest, and a topdecked Primal Bellow or Groundswell only let the drake attack for 9 or 8 respectively, in either case being able to block the Survivalist is relevant with you on 10 life.

I presume if you left the gear on Lynx he's going to make the same chump block, he just gets to have 2 more life left. But it gives you 2 more power + 1 more attacker when you need to get in for 4 instead of 2 on the following turn. Is it worth it for the added safety during his turn? Since he did manage to get out one more blocker plus vines mana up, I think in either scenario you need two more turns to win. If he didn't have another creature either play gives you the win next turn. And if he'd had to tap down low enough that he couldn't keep Vines mana up, I think his blocking options are pretty abysmally bad in either case.

So what do you think? Is going for the nulls as an insurance blocker a solid play?

I thought I saw a clever play on turn 5 of R2G1, where you lay a land and swing in with a 3 power Geopede, hoping to get the Baloths to block so you can Spire Barrage + first strike to take them out with the "bad" removal spell and save the good one for a rainy day. But then I rememebered Spire Barrage is a sorcery, not an instant. D'oh!

I assume you're talking about Sejiri Steppe in a control deck on its own, in the absence of Ruin Ghost. With the ghost I'd leave up a white mana to dodge all their targeted creature removal spells all day. I made the mistake of not running my Ruin Ghost at my release event, I'm eager to try him out when I get the time to do some ZZW drafting myself.

Thanks for another great walkthrough!

I think that's a reasonable by Godot at Fri, 03/19/2010 - 17:36
Godot's picture

I think that's a reasonable line. Is it superior? Maybe even superior. If so, it’s very narrow, in that the only thing it does that I can come up with is preventing a loss to a topdecked Groundswell (am I missing anything? Wind Zendikon has you beat regardless, and the green zendikon costs too much). It's worth noting at this point that I did not pass a Groundswell in the draft, and all but P3P7 and P3P8 contained something I would think even newer players would take over Groundswell for a UG deck.

So Villain had to have drafted a Groundswell out of the P3P7 or P3P8 packs, and it has to be on top of the library right now. That’s preventing against an extremely slim chance, but I’ll still grant you that it becomes the right play by that slim chance, so long as we are not opening ourselves up to some other way of losing by keeping the gear on the cat. Assuming no Groundswell, the win by leaving the gear on the cat must be 100% as iron clad as moving it, or else leaving the gear on the cat becomes the wrong play.

I’ll leave it to you and other readers to figure out if there is any way to lose this game by keeping the gear on the Steppe Lynx that wouldn’t happen by moving it onto the Crusher Zendikon. :)

EDIT: I had it wrong above...leaving it on the cat to cast the nulls also prevents against the loss to a topdecked Wind Zendikon, which is more likely than the Groundswell since we know we passed a Wind Zendikon (twice actually, it wheeled from P3P1). It still needs to be weighed against possible outs for the Villain created by leaving the gear in place, but it helps the case for leaving it, to be sure.

Great article, Ryan. by MMQ (not verified) at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 10:20
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Great article, Ryan. Red/White is certainly a brilliant archetype in ZZW, and searing blaze is arguably the best common in the set.

Hello Godot, I really like by Valakut (not verified) at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 16:15
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Hello Godot,

I really like your writing style and your explanations but after realizing that you are in a Swiss draft I just cannot make myself read the thing. Your argument that the Swiss draft was at 7 and you jumped in because of this is rather weak considering that it takes less then 3 minutes for an 8 4 to fill.
Rather just make clear that it's the first ZZW for you and you don't feel confident to go 84 yet so people know immediately what to expect.

I hope this doesn't sound harsher then it's ment to be as I really like your writing but Swiss drafts are simply not teaching anything except how to beat up weaker opponents. I hope to see more 8 4 material from you in the future.

You are missing the point... by Godot at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 17:12
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"Swiss drafts are simply not teaching anything except how to beat up weaker opponents."

I'm sorry Valakut, but that's utter nonsense. The main benefit of my articles over most walkthrough writers out there is that I walk through each step of each game, breaking down all the major decisions, where other writers just summarize the matches. I'm less of a draft-walkthrough writer than I am a play-decision writer. Interesting play decisions and important takeaways are found in *every* draft queue, and that is my primary trade. This article is not "How to beat up on a Swiss queue," it is, "How to be self-critical and analytical about your game decisions in the eternal quest for perfect play."

If you think this article has nothing to get you thinking and nothing to learn from because it was a Swiss, then you are being close-minded to your own detriment, as evidenced by your telling me it has no value without even reading it. Figuring out the correct play for a tough, complex game state is daunting, difficult, and interesting regardless of the opponent or draft format.

Also, I didn't say, "It's my first ZZW and I don't feel confident going to 84 yet" because that's simply not true. I do about half Swiss and half 84 in my drafting, with no 43s, and I choose by picking whichever is closest to firing, or based on whether I'm in the mood for high-variance (84) or low variance (Swiss) in my attempt to expend as few resources as possible.

Thanks for taking the time to comment, and you can certainly read what you will, but saying, "This is Swiss and therefore useless to me" is entirely missing the point of my walkthrough efforts. If you ever read an article of mine and come away thinking, "These games had no tricky decisions, and were therefore useless to me," then I will feel I have failed in my goals for the column.

Fair enough Godot. The one by Valakut (not verified) at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 18:25
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Fair enough Godot. The one thing you should take into account though is that play decisions are always easy to judge in a vacuum. Often the skill of your opponents will influence what consists a good or bad play on your part. A good play against a weak opponent might not be the best play against a good one and vise versa. A swiss draft is also a bad indicator of general deck power you might expect to assemble as more inexperienced opponents usually draft weaker cards and therefore benefit the better players at the table.
I can ensure you I am not the only one that would prefer 8 4 drafts as there are in my opinion NO benefits whatsoever for the reader. I do understand though that it has economic implications to go with the higher variance 8 4. But writers here get compensated after all (or am I wrong?) so the goal should not be to reduce your variance but provide the best article possible.

Your writing is top notch and it could be even better if you would go "all-in" with the power level.

1) Not all of Godot's readers by Paul Leicht at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 19:33
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1) Not all of Godot's readers are pros like yourself. So they may achieve some level of learning that you can't because you are so far beyond what Godot has to teach.
2) Swiss is not always a gaggle of beginners and scrubs. Occasionally good players show up and not for the sharking to be done but because frankly 8 4 ISN'T always the ideal draft format. Sure you are likely (but not always) to meet players with high ratings in the 8 4s but you are likely to meet some of those same players in the swiss, because even good players have trouble going infinite. If that were not the case I am certain Godot would not waste our collective time.
3) To say that the article has no value to the reader is just erroneous. (Even if it IS your opinion as you say.) Instead tell us that it has no value to you and stop posting.

No benefits whatsoever, eh? by Godot at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 19:49
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"The one thing you should take into account though is that play decisions are always easy to judge in a vacuum. Often the skill of your opponents will influence what consists a good or bad play on your part. A good play against a weak opponent might not be the best play against a good one and vise versa."

Of course, and I do take that into account for individual decisions in my columns, but that layer of decision-making exists in all queues. You seem to operate under the assumption that you only face good players in 84, and only crappy players in Swiss, though. How many times have I heard LSV say in one of his videos after a bad card or bad play by an opponent, "I swear this is an 84, folks." When LSV observes that he's up against a weak opponent, do you skip to the next round because that match is no longer of any use to you?

Many players seem to have a warped view of the skill difference found between Swiss and 84. As someone who plays half and half, I can say that while you are certainly going to face better opponents on average in 84, there is not nearly the skill divide that some people seem to think there is, and you can face a great table in Swiss and terrible table in 84.

"I can ensure you I am not the only one that would prefer 8 4 drafts as there are in my opinion NO benefits whatsoever for the reader."

Seriously? It's that cut-and-dry for you? "If it is not an 84, it has no value." That is being stubbornly robotic. Let me put it this way: let's say I let you choose the source of my next walkthrough. Your options are a Swiss draft that I assure you is full of interesting picks and *razor* close games in which any number of tough decisions from both sides influenced the outcomes, or an 84 that I assure you basically drafted and played itself, and had few if any debatable or tricky situations. Which would you choose?

If you would answer, "The 84, because I all I want to see are 84 drafts, even if they have nothing much to think about," then allow me to direct you to countless alternate sources for dry, content-light, "Here is my draft" resources on the web.

"But wait, I want an *84* full of razor close games in which any number of tough decisions from both sides influenced the outcomes," you might say. That is what I aim for, in general. This is the first Swiss I've written up in quite a while, in fact. That being said, your baseline stance that Swiss drafts have no value for walkthroughs is just misguided, elitist, and wrong. I choose which drafts to write up based on the density of interesting pick and play decisions, not on what queue it was. *That* is what provides the best articles possible, not blindly writing up 84s without considering the quality of decisions within.

If you appreciate my writing--and I thank you for the kind words in that regard--then trust me enough to go along with the draft I chose on the assumption that if I took the time to write it up, then there are interesting decisions and useful lessons found within.

Wow, well said by Rerepete at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:19
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5

Me, I am no elitist and love your view on whatever you happen to write....another fine article Godot.

I did not ment to attack by Valakut (not verified) at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 20:42
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I did not ment to attack anyone personally and my sentence was badly phrased. I did not mean to say that Swiss drafts have no value but rather that you cannot teach anything in a Swiss that you cannot do even better in an 8 4. Yes, there are good players in a Swiss sometimes and beginners in 84's but it's rather the exception, not the rule. Keep up the good work.

Well, just to hammer Ryan's by BoogieElAceitoso at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 21:08
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Well, just to hammer Ryan's point home even further, I'm an average to bad player, a noob you may call me, and I'm featured on one of LSV videos on a site he writes for, that I may not be allowed to mention but includes the words "fireball" and "channell" in it's URL. It was my first 8-4 queue (triple Zen at that time), I was just rare-grabbing (got 12 rares, including 2 fetches), and I managed a sub-par BR deck which did win a game against LSV, no small feat.
The point is, in this particular draft my bellow average deck beat the first opponent handily (another noob, maybe), lost to LSV second match, and I watched all of the LSV videos afterwards and none of us was really top player except for him, not even his final's opponent.
Your views about draft tables is pretty skewed, I think: although you may safely asume all the really good players play 8-4 online, there's a huge number of average players out there that either jump onto the first to start queue without giving it a second thought, or get in there like me, to rare draft and/or take the chances on hitting a couple of broken cards and hitting the jackpot.

I never felt personally by Godot at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 22:15
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I never felt personally attacked; you have been complimentary and respectful overall, and I'm happy you took the time to write. For every one reader who leaves a comment, there are probably 50 who feel the same way who didn't, so I am happy to have a springboard to speak to the "Swiss issue."

I see what you meant by that sentence now. I would counter that there are given *instances* of Swiss that have way more to teach than given instances of 84. I take it case by case, which in general means more 84s, but if I'm walking through a Swiss, it means in that instance I felt it made for a superior walkthrough than any recent 84.

In *this* instance, it was because it was my first ZZW draft, and had enough interesting spots to make the cut.

I really appreciate the fact by JustSin at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 21:34
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I really appreciate the fact that you took the time to put together your opponents deck, I think that gives fantastic insight into that game

Your walkthroughs are so good by ghweiss at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 21:39
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Your walkthroughs are so good that I'd read them even if you were drafting those crazy random packs on the Beta server. However, I would rather see you draft 8-4's. This is because I can't help but lose all concentration when the opponent makes a terrible play - yea, even when it's LSV at the helm. Best chance to avoid that is in an 8-4.

(No, I would not stop concentrating in one of my own matches if the opponent was playing terribly.)

The point about games being worthwhile in either "format" is moot if you are only going to write about interesting games, right?

Dear Valakut by moerutora (not verified) at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 21:55
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Please save yourself the embarrassment and stop posting. Thanks.

Godot,

Thanks

lol i certainly wouldn't by ShardFenix at Tue, 03/16/2010 - 22:07
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lol i certainly wouldn't worry about Valakut much. From other posts Im pretty sure he writes for another mtgo site and seems to just be stirring the pot here in this article. Overall I'll be honest I don't draft much but actually tried a ZZW swiss earlier in the month and came out with a hedron crab/ally u/g deck...yeah not so great and obviously not 8-4 quality drafting, so thanks for occasionally doing swiss events.

Great Win by Mathu (not verified) at Wed, 03/17/2010 - 12:38
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Thanks for the insights Godot, I'm always amazed at the high quality of play in these draft articles, and I wish there were more like them. Part of the reason I read these articles is that I feel I draft similar powered decks, but lose more often.

I wouldn't say I'm a "bad" player, but certainly not an expert. Probably middle of the road. I'm also definitely not new to magic, but never took it so seriously as many of the posters seem to (not that there is anything wrong with that).

My question for you may be out of place in this article, and probably should have been posed in part one, and is about deck construction. I seem to always play a very similar deck to my own in round 1, it seems to stand to reason that this would be true, as I am usually cutting my color (or passing another) to my next one or two drafters. Would you use this information to build a main deck to win round 1 in an 8-4? Would this affect your MD build at all?

Also, I have been running a lot of swiss drafts, they are perfect for me as I really don't have the time or patience to run multiple 8-4's in an attempt to come out ahead, and I'm perfectly happy with the slow bleed (I immediately sell all my money cards after every draft- the only constructed I play is pauper and occasionally my extended specter deck). In these drafts, I would say that 60-70% of the time the winner of the draft is either me or my first round opponent (them more often than me). Is this an indicator of something I am doing wrong when drafting, or something I am doing right? It's frustrating to lose match one so much, but somewhat comforting to go 2-1 and only have lost to the eventual champ.

Thanks Again!

i second mathu's comment by mrgeode13 (not verified) at Thu, 03/18/2010 - 01:18
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i second mathu's comment about going 1-2 in swiss play. happens to me frequently, and i'm not certain what to do about it. i have another question that's unrelated to this draft, however: what's your issue with 4322s? just curious.

congrats on the win, and thanks for the write-ups. very good insomniac fodder.

i think its because 4-3-2-2's by ShardFenix at Thu, 03/18/2010 - 02:27
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i think its because 4-3-2-2's have the worst EV or something out of the three formats...

4-3-2-2 by Steve (not verified) at Thu, 03/18/2010 - 09:35
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I think we discussed this during his last walkthrough, but 4-3-2-2 drafts basically say "Here, Wizards, have a pack from us, for free. Nothing like giving back."

ha. indeed. i do so love by mrgeode13 (not verified) at Fri, 03/19/2010 - 03:10
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ha. indeed. i do so love volunteering.

Excellent Walkthrough! by Gordo789 (not verified) at Fri, 03/19/2010 - 16:11
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Hey Godot, just wanted to say great walkthrough! I only play Swiss drafts because I always like to play 3 rounds, and I agree with your points in the comments completely. I tend to look at magic as a game that I play against myself rather than a game that I play against an opponent. when I lose, i always ask myself what I did wrong rather than always assuming my opponent did something right.

keep up the good work!