This is much better than your last article; it was fine, this was VERY interesting (even if I don't think pike is an amazing buy; the research + logic behind your recommendation is excellent).
Those are some very good points actually. I will have to try out vines of the vastwood. Though cloak is just so good against the red decks, also some other aggro decks in the format as well. It was hard to pass by.
Entertaining walk through of Slivers. The deck is really starting to show up a lot more. I do not think that you want to be playing Armadillo Cloak though. Echoing Truth being played so much to hate storm will hit Cloaked creatures too. I saw one guy that was doing well with a very similar list, but in place of the Cloaks was using Vines of the Vastwood.
I think the price trend of late on Pike is related to the fact that the Standard PTQ season has started and Delver is judged as being the best deck. Thus, grinders have bought in and likely created an inflationary price. I'm not saying its not a good buy or not (I don't play standard at all), but I just wanted to point that out to see if you considered that fact in your analysis.
Also, if anything is done to Delver in June on the B&R, then this card will likely plummet.
Hey, this review of all the cards from magic the gathering was so cool and interesting to read! I enjoyed reading this post from the very first word until its end. thanks a lot for sharing!
Hannah, pdf viewer manager.
Lingering Souls is a very good one, I think Kitchen Finks is another power uncommon that it could be compared to from a more recent set. I could see Lingering Soul being very high during Modern season in a few years.
Lingering Souls has to be one of the best looking cards to speculate on going forward. At 1 ticket a pop currently, for a card that will see significant play in multiple formats and will be opened significantly less than anything in ISD, this seems like a bargain. Conley Woods and Craig Wescoe have both written articles about how good this card is, and I can easily see it ending up with a high Fact or Fiction-like price tag down the road. (3-5 tickets)
It looks like you are talking about paper prices, which is a completely different economy than MTGO (somewhat connected in Standard because of redemption, but not entirely)
the spirit calls for md, i cant see how it would be ok to sb them. most of the challenges are engine based, so they shouldnt be in sb either. i would make an exception for 3 md minds desire and 1 sb if you were running wish's to fetch the 4th. as an example
First, if they reprint Goyf, his value tanks unless they print him in a current (standard legal) set at mythic. I have no idea if they intend to reprint him, and even then it may be in a FTV style package so they can increase his quantity without having him in standard, even if he's not that big of a deal without his legacy enablers.
Second, you are talking about paper prices, which is a valid thing to speculate on but has only a tangential relation to MTGO prices, where playability is king.
I have no earthly idea if you are right about those investments in paper, but the MTGO economy is a beast unto itself.
And the reason is simple. In the stock market, (you might have heard this), there is a big rule:
"Buy the Rumor, Sell the News".
Goyf is something you should hold onto for a while for 1 very simple reason. 99% of Magic players think it will get reprinted. If something, and that means anything, is hinted by Wizards mentioning Goyf, or anything with Futuresight, that is when Goyf will go up, and then immediately sell. (Same goes for Fetch lands. Ravnica Lands being reprinted... That is a rumor... Sell the news.... Anyone see what I am saying??)
But who buys the big ticket items for speculation? Isn't the point of speculation to buy low and sell high? Goyf is too costly to move much. It is like buying shares of ExxonMobile. The stocks valuation is too high to just day trade. It's not like moving a 3x leveraged ETF every minute.
Speculation? Miracle will be banned. That's my speculation.
Think of Brainstorm/JTMS into drawing it off the top during your upkeep.
I'll give you my buylist and what I am speculating on, and here is how you make your money:
ISD Duals - (Vendor Prices)
Clifftop Retreat at $2
Hinterland Harbor at $3
Woodland Cemetery at $4
Isolated Chapel is a no-buy.
Sulfur Falls is $2
The important ones are Clifftop retreat and Hinterland Harbor. I just bought 20 a piece at 20 sided store last night.
Champion of the Parish - I'll get them for $4. I'll take them all day.
Thalia - I got them for an average of $2.50 a piece.
Snapcaster Mage - I'll give you $22 a piece.
Hellrider - I'll take them for $3 all day
Bloodline Keeper - $5 is my max, I would prefer $4 if I buy bulk.
Falkenwrath Aristocrat - $4 a piece
Sorin Emblems - They are rarer than Sorin itself.
Lingering Souls. I don't care about the price, I just want infinite.
Vorapede - I have been getting them 2 for $5.
Unglued Basic Lands - They are hard to get, so I'll give $2.5 a piece.
Cards I avoid or sell.
Birds of Paradise is $5 a piece. No thanks.
Elite Inquisitor - Some people are thinking these will go up, and are willing to pay $2. Ugh.
Titans - Cycling out. No money to be made for me.
Captains - All the DKA captains are worth getting rid of. I sell $4 for 4 all day and I'll be happy.
Selling Unhinged basic lands. Don't like them, would rather buy ZEN full art.
But you want real speculation? I have a friend who bought EVERY-SINGLE Bloodgift Demon SCG had in stock. He bought around 500 as an investment with Consecrated Sphinx cycling out.
I think he is an idiot. But if it works, it works.
I am working on getting 50 Bloodline Keepers. Halfway there. That is my real speculation.
I don’t see the difference between your investments based on predicting the season and your “highly volatile” investment.
I suggested investing in a foil Orim’s Chant BUT that would never be a good idea if you only benchmark using mtgotraders.com prices. The difference between Goyf and a foil Orim’s Chant is that goyf sees play whereas the Orim’s Chant basically never sees play. Nevertheless, the foil Orim’s Chant is very expensive on mtgotraders.com. Because demand is very low for the foil Orim’s Chant other BOTS sells it at a far lower price. It is this BOT spread that can make you money on high priced cards. Last week, I saw someone buying a foil Pernicious Deed at 60 while the mtgotraders.com price is 95. My guess is that such an investment in a “highly volatile” card can make you 10 over the next month. However, you have made it very clear that this is not the kind of strategy you are testing since you are not using different BOTS. In conclusion, I do not think that you can make money on a “highly volatile” card using your strategy, so you might as well invest the proceeds from Goyf in cards similar to the rest in your portfolio.
Those of you wanting to play in the Euro Event: I cannot ENTER you into that event, that has to be done by _Kumagoro_. All I can do is put your name on the Euro Event sheet with a note for Kuma to enter you.
Over half of the "just for playing payout" seats in the US Event are now filled. :) Remember, to be eligible for the 2 tix credit "just for playing", you do have to play ALL ROUNDS! (A bye counts as having played in a round)
Quote: "Your investment going down by 3% makes me think that speculation is due to a lot of luck."
I think it is a little too soon to draw that conclusion given that a lot of the "investments" are longer term. However, I do agree with your other comments.
Welcome back!
I wouldn't discredit the goblins deck. Mogg Fanatic is insanely good vs dredge, stingscourger is gd vs the fatties.. Although I'm the last person to want to see gobs/merfolk win in classic.
Just to clarify, do the challenges require md 4x of the said cards? or just having them mixed around md and sb?
Lands are the only thing I am 100 percent certain will rise in value. I have three playsets of each dual personally, and I expect to reap the rewards come Ravnica.
If you want high risk, high reward cards, the answer would be any mythic from Dark Ascension. It has the smallest release window and therefore will be the the least printed of any cards in the block. I don't have the slightest idea what the breakout mythic will eventually be, although not all of them really have a chance, so maybe 1 of each, Sorin, Huntmaster, Lich, Vorapede, Aristocrat and I guess Mikaeus. I don't believe Helvault, Beguiler of Wills, Archangel's Light and Elbrus have any shot whatsoever.
The reason he is in the mix now is that a lot of people told me the trick to making this work is to buy a highly volatile card low and sell high. That's obvious, but the trick is to find that card, and time it correctly. Several people recommended Goyf as the card, and last month as a good time to buy.
So I have one vote for selling. Anyone else? And if so, and if I'm looking for that volatile card to buy low, and sell high, what should I sink the 60 or so TIX I'd get for my Goyf?
I've played Modern a lot. Tarmogoyf is like the boogeyman of Jund. It's very for me to win a match against a deck that gets Tarmogoyf out. It's not as strong in Legacy because the power level is higher there, but in Modern, I feel he's a lot stronger than the majority of the cards out there.
First of all I was surprised to see 2 Legacy events fired as oppossed to the usual 1. But I have to ask for formats that don't fire much could you list when the 1 or 2 that fire are? If I knew which event was actually likely to fire I'd be more likely to log on and see if it does where as right now if I see the reminder a Legacy event is coming up I'll check it out but usually am just disapointed.
Second. The Tarmogoyf investment. I understand investing in high level variable priced cards can result in some serious profit but you have to buy low and sell high. Understanding why it's prices varies could also be helpful because you bought in at a horrible time. His popularity in Legacy varies and effects his price, despite being played in the popular RUG Delver deck overall he's seeing very low play as many decks such as Maverick have moved away from vanilla beaters no matter how good and his spot is heavily stolen by Scavenging Ooze which in addition to being a beater is a versatile hate card. But even worse Legacy is a minimally played format compared to say Modern where Scavenging Ooze isn't even legal leaving him still the best option for a 2 drop beater for decks like Jund and Zoo and you bought in right before the end of the season. You even mention the Modern prices crashing post season on your graph of Modern cards crashing. This should have been easy to predict. I'd suggest selling him now as he's gonna keep spiralling down for months then buy him back when you see Modern cards starting to pick back up when the next Modern season is announced.
I would have liked to see the decklists and be able to print them out.
It's better than having to crib them by hand.
This is much better than your last article; it was fine, this was VERY interesting (even if I don't think pike is an amazing buy; the research + logic behind your recommendation is excellent).
Those are some very good points actually. I will have to try out vines of the vastwood. Though cloak is just so good against the red decks, also some other aggro decks in the format as well. It was hard to pass by.
Entertaining walk through of Slivers. The deck is really starting to show up a lot more. I do not think that you want to be playing Armadillo Cloak though. Echoing Truth being played so much to hate storm will hit Cloaked creatures too. I saw one guy that was doing well with a very similar list, but in place of the Cloaks was using Vines of the Vastwood.
I think the price trend of late on Pike is related to the fact that the Standard PTQ season has started and Delver is judged as being the best deck. Thus, grinders have bought in and likely created an inflationary price. I'm not saying its not a good buy or not (I don't play standard at all), but I just wanted to point that out to see if you considered that fact in your analysis.
Also, if anything is done to Delver in June on the B&R, then this card will likely plummet.
Hey, this review of all the cards from magic the gathering was so cool and interesting to read! I enjoyed reading this post from the very first word until its end. thanks a lot for sharing!
Hannah, pdf viewer manager.
Lingering Souls is a very good one, I think Kitchen Finks is another power uncommon that it could be compared to from a more recent set. I could see Lingering Soul being very high during Modern season in a few years.
Lingering Souls has to be one of the best looking cards to speculate on going forward. At 1 ticket a pop currently, for a card that will see significant play in multiple formats and will be opened significantly less than anything in ISD, this seems like a bargain. Conley Woods and Craig Wescoe have both written articles about how good this card is, and I can easily see it ending up with a high Fact or Fiction-like price tag down the road. (3-5 tickets)
It looks like you are talking about paper prices, which is a completely different economy than MTGO (somewhat connected in Standard because of redemption, but not entirely)
the spirit calls for md, i cant see how it would be ok to sb them. most of the challenges are engine based, so they shouldnt be in sb either. i would make an exception for 3 md minds desire and 1 sb if you were running wish's to fetch the 4th. as an example
this is george.
First, if they reprint Goyf, his value tanks unless they print him in a current (standard legal) set at mythic. I have no idea if they intend to reprint him, and even then it may be in a FTV style package so they can increase his quantity without having him in standard, even if he's not that big of a deal without his legacy enablers.
Second, you are talking about paper prices, which is a valid thing to speculate on but has only a tangential relation to MTGO prices, where playability is king.
I have no earthly idea if you are right about those investments in paper, but the MTGO economy is a beast unto itself.
Ok, DO NOT SELL GOYF.
And the reason is simple. In the stock market, (you might have heard this), there is a big rule:
"Buy the Rumor, Sell the News".
Goyf is something you should hold onto for a while for 1 very simple reason. 99% of Magic players think it will get reprinted. If something, and that means anything, is hinted by Wizards mentioning Goyf, or anything with Futuresight, that is when Goyf will go up, and then immediately sell. (Same goes for Fetch lands. Ravnica Lands being reprinted... That is a rumor... Sell the news.... Anyone see what I am saying??)
But who buys the big ticket items for speculation? Isn't the point of speculation to buy low and sell high? Goyf is too costly to move much. It is like buying shares of ExxonMobile. The stocks valuation is too high to just day trade. It's not like moving a 3x leveraged ETF every minute.
Speculation? Miracle will be banned. That's my speculation.
Think of Brainstorm/JTMS into drawing it off the top during your upkeep.
I'll give you my buylist and what I am speculating on, and here is how you make your money:
ISD Duals - (Vendor Prices)
Clifftop Retreat at $2
Hinterland Harbor at $3
Woodland Cemetery at $4
Isolated Chapel is a no-buy.
Sulfur Falls is $2
The important ones are Clifftop retreat and Hinterland Harbor. I just bought 20 a piece at 20 sided store last night.
Champion of the Parish - I'll get them for $4. I'll take them all day.
Thalia - I got them for an average of $2.50 a piece.
Snapcaster Mage - I'll give you $22 a piece.
Hellrider - I'll take them for $3 all day
Bloodline Keeper - $5 is my max, I would prefer $4 if I buy bulk.
Falkenwrath Aristocrat - $4 a piece
Sorin Emblems - They are rarer than Sorin itself.
Lingering Souls. I don't care about the price, I just want infinite.
Vorapede - I have been getting them 2 for $5.
Unglued Basic Lands - They are hard to get, so I'll give $2.5 a piece.
Cards I avoid or sell.
Birds of Paradise is $5 a piece. No thanks.
Elite Inquisitor - Some people are thinking these will go up, and are willing to pay $2. Ugh.
Titans - Cycling out. No money to be made for me.
Captains - All the DKA captains are worth getting rid of. I sell $4 for 4 all day and I'll be happy.
Selling Unhinged basic lands. Don't like them, would rather buy ZEN full art.
But you want real speculation? I have a friend who bought EVERY-SINGLE Bloodgift Demon SCG had in stock. He bought around 500 as an investment with Consecrated Sphinx cycling out.
I think he is an idiot. But if it works, it works.
I am working on getting 50 Bloodline Keepers. Halfway there. That is my real speculation.
I don’t see the difference between your investments based on predicting the season and your “highly volatile” investment.
I suggested investing in a foil Orim’s Chant BUT that would never be a good idea if you only benchmark using mtgotraders.com prices. The difference between Goyf and a foil Orim’s Chant is that goyf sees play whereas the Orim’s Chant basically never sees play. Nevertheless, the foil Orim’s Chant is very expensive on mtgotraders.com. Because demand is very low for the foil Orim’s Chant other BOTS sells it at a far lower price. It is this BOT spread that can make you money on high priced cards. Last week, I saw someone buying a foil Pernicious Deed at 60 while the mtgotraders.com price is 95. My guess is that such an investment in a “highly volatile” card can make you 10 over the next month. However, you have made it very clear that this is not the kind of strategy you are testing since you are not using different BOTS. In conclusion, I do not think that you can make money on a “highly volatile” card using your strategy, so you might as well invest the proceeds from Goyf in cards similar to the rest in your portfolio.
You're in as player #25!
Those of you wanting to play in the Euro Event: I cannot ENTER you into that event, that has to be done by _Kumagoro_. All I can do is put your name on the Euro Event sheet with a note for Kuma to enter you.
Over half of the "just for playing payout" seats in the US Event are now filled. :) Remember, to be eligible for the 2 tix credit "just for playing", you do have to play ALL ROUNDS! (A bye counts as having played in a round)
You're added as Player #33. Good luck on the Plateau bounty!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhLez4zEwHkIdHFTdnlsY25LVmh...
Quote: "Your investment going down by 3% makes me think that speculation is due to a lot of luck."
I think it is a little too soon to draw that conclusion given that a lot of the "investments" are longer term. However, I do agree with your other comments.
I'll comment on the draft... haven't done any myself, but having a great time reading about other's experiences since the format is so nuts
I'll sign up JustSin of course, thinking someone has to shoot for that Plateau lol
Welcome back!
I wouldn't discredit the goblins deck. Mogg Fanatic is insanely good vs dredge, stingscourger is gd vs the fatties.. Although I'm the last person to want to see gobs/merfolk win in classic.
Just to clarify, do the challenges require md 4x of the said cards? or just having them mixed around md and sb?
Lands are the only thing I am 100 percent certain will rise in value. I have three playsets of each dual personally, and I expect to reap the rewards come Ravnica.
If you want high risk, high reward cards, the answer would be any mythic from Dark Ascension. It has the smallest release window and therefore will be the the least printed of any cards in the block. I don't have the slightest idea what the breakout mythic will eventually be, although not all of them really have a chance, so maybe 1 of each, Sorin, Huntmaster, Lich, Vorapede, Aristocrat and I guess Mikaeus. I don't believe Helvault, Beguiler of Wills, Archangel's Light and Elbrus have any shot whatsoever.
The reason he is in the mix now is that a lot of people told me the trick to making this work is to buy a highly volatile card low and sell high. That's obvious, but the trick is to find that card, and time it correctly. Several people recommended Goyf as the card, and last month as a good time to buy.
So I have one vote for selling. Anyone else? And if so, and if I'm looking for that volatile card to buy low, and sell high, what should I sink the 60 or so TIX I'd get for my Goyf?
As strong as a French Vanilla creature gets anyway :)
I've played Modern a lot. Tarmogoyf is like the boogeyman of Jund. It's very for me to win a match against a deck that gets Tarmogoyf out. It's not as strong in Legacy because the power level is higher there, but in Modern, I feel he's a lot stronger than the majority of the cards out there.
First of all I was surprised to see 2 Legacy events fired as oppossed to the usual 1. But I have to ask for formats that don't fire much could you list when the 1 or 2 that fire are? If I knew which event was actually likely to fire I'd be more likely to log on and see if it does where as right now if I see the reminder a Legacy event is coming up I'll check it out but usually am just disapointed.
Second. The Tarmogoyf investment. I understand investing in high level variable priced cards can result in some serious profit but you have to buy low and sell high. Understanding why it's prices varies could also be helpful because you bought in at a horrible time. His popularity in Legacy varies and effects his price, despite being played in the popular RUG Delver deck overall he's seeing very low play as many decks such as Maverick have moved away from vanilla beaters no matter how good and his spot is heavily stolen by Scavenging Ooze which in addition to being a beater is a versatile hate card. But even worse Legacy is a minimally played format compared to say Modern where Scavenging Ooze isn't even legal leaving him still the best option for a 2 drop beater for decks like Jund and Zoo and you bought in right before the end of the season. You even mention the Modern prices crashing post season on your graph of Modern cards crashing. This should have been easy to predict. I'd suggest selling him now as he's gonna keep spiralling down for months then buy him back when you see Modern cards starting to pick back up when the next Modern season is announced.
I don't have the facts to back this up, but it feels like yu-gi-oh has been profitable for 5+ years.