Thanks a bunch to Ham for the work and to Heath for giving him access to the data. I requested some of those charts myself, so I thought I should chime in :)
I note that all the "re-print" drops I wanted to see went down a bit before the new ones are available. I didn't remember Pithing Needle getting spoiled in advance (unlike Reya), then I remembered: it's not just earlier spoilers of specific cards - the FULL spoiler is available before we have the cards online.
If you're interested in using a versioning control system to back up your decks, I would recommend Perforce. Subversion works also, but from my experience Perforce is just easier to setup and use. Perforce is also free (for up to two users), but is not open source.
Just another option if people are interested... No matter what you use, version control is always a great idea though.
The percentages represent the proportion of decks on Day One. As far as Day Two, there were 38 Elves! (24%) decks versus 37 Zoo's (23%) decks. Since Zoo started Day One with a 2:1 advantage, you can see how much better the Elves! deck did versus Zoo.
Are off aren't they? I guess I missed something. Good article though. It looks like you are saying Zoo made day 2 about 30% (which looks about right) but then you have elves only 15%. Please clarify.
Well, no bannings, as I thought. Wizards believes that the anti-elf tools are there, and I agree. I thought they did a great job to reserve the timing of ban decisions if need be since they can't be sure however.
There are a lot of ways to deal with the elf deck, from Slice and Dice to discard. I just hope they ban something, because I refuse to play with Slice and Dice in my sideboard.
Yes you are right, I should have squeezed in at least one of the Bonesplinters and I probably could have taken out the Goble for it. Don't just discount the Goblet though, it has it's uses and it worked pretty decent for me this draft. I have seen it steal seven life points which is significant if you have burn and fast creatures. But yea, should have had the Bonesplinters in there.
Here's the deal with cards like Blightning vs. creatures. Now do understand, I don't think Blightning is a bad card. Blightning just doesn't require an answer, it's not a threat and doesn't affect the board. Sure, you get two cards and three damage, but you lose a card as well. The Jund cycle of +1/+1 creatures on creature death however, each one of them says "Deal with me or I will kill you."
As to the lands. They help you to be more consistant without dropping any power from your deck as they are not spells. Much more powerful than they look at first glance.
I would love it if you gave more information about certain picks. To be honest I suck at drafting and I would never think of drafting a land as my 2nd pick, but now I understand your desire to stay open.
But why would you not pick blightning? What makes it worth less than the 1/1 first striker?
I think it would be great if you elaborated a bit more on some picks, it helps us get more information about what's good!
I for one, am not interested in this format but I do read such stuff when it's on puremtgo.com. So most part of it was new-ish for me. I'm sure most players did knew everything about what's been said in the article but still, there are some players just like me.
I think you're definitely right about Predator Dragon - I didn't give that card enough credit. There are lots of situations with this deck where a Predator Dragon just wins you the game immediately.
Predator Dragon is a house. I run him as a 2-of and he can outright win games. Never underestimate a huge hasty flier. I'm going to have to playtest torrent of souls later, it looks good. Also, I wasn't sold on Dragon Fodder initially, but I actually run them quite a bit now. Sometimes what I need is early defense against weenie rushes and the tokens certainly do the job.
I'm not sure if that chart is of your design or not, but it is by far the most impressive lucid breakdown of a pro tour event I have ever seen.
I, too, am wanting to hear a little less of the 'what' of the deck - we've seen the lists. But now, let's analyze the 'why' this card over that card. Was the winning deck a fluke version of Elves? Was the 9-0 a fluke (40% of Tez didn't day 2)? What card choices are going to optimize my chances of success in future events? I want to hear the reasoning behind the choices.
This is a nice series. It seems you are just getting good cards instead of making a deck at P3 P1. The zombie is a lot better for your deck missing creatures and with the splinters.
Well it was relevant when I wrote it a week and a half ago. Unfortunately it got lost in the submission process. But thanks for the constructive criticism Mr. Anonymous.
You're right man, that's a mistake on my part. I take pretty detailed notes as I play, and then write up the report right after the game - so I'm not sure what happened there. My apologies.
You say "through the hate" as though the hate somehow slows them down. In reality, the only hate that exists (short of Shock effects) comes online turn 2. So you could have 7 Pyroclasms in your hand, but you're not going to stop them from going off if they're going off on turn 2 on the play. "Through the hate" usually means disruption that makes it harder to achieve a combo, but the hate for elves only exists to punish them if they don't go off on the ideal turn. Worse, much of the hate can be answered by Viridian Shaman.
As Gregandthensome pointed out, Dredge had four 0 or 1 mana answers that would seriously disrupt their combo. Leyline could appear on turn 0 (even on the draw), and Crypt, Extirpate, and Offalsnout would all be online on turn 1. In many cases, you could sit behind a turn 1 swamp and mess up their combo at instant speed. With Elves, there's no equivalent.
To recap: Four serious disruptions to Dredge at 0-1 mana. Zero disruptions to Elves (even shock doesn't do that much) at 0-1 mana. Sure, there's lots at 2-3, but all you can do is hope you make it there. If they get the nut draw, there's nothing you can do.
Thanks a bunch to Ham for the work and to Heath for giving him access to the data. I requested some of those charts myself, so I thought I should chime in :)
I note that all the "re-print" drops I wanted to see went down a bit before the new ones are available. I didn't remember Pithing Needle getting spoiled in advance (unlike Reya), then I remembered: it's not just earlier spoilers of specific cards - the FULL spoiler is available before we have the cards online.
Ivo.
If you're interested in using a versioning control system to back up your decks, I would recommend Perforce. Subversion works also, but from my experience Perforce is just easier to setup and use. Perforce is also free (for up to two users), but is not open source.
Just another option if people are interested... No matter what you use, version control is always a great idea though.
The percentages represent the proportion of decks on Day One. As far as Day Two, there were 38 Elves! (24%) decks versus 37 Zoo's (23%) decks. Since Zoo started Day One with a 2:1 advantage, you can see how much better the Elves! deck did versus Zoo.
Are off aren't they? I guess I missed something. Good article though. It looks like you are saying Zoo made day 2 about 30% (which looks about right) but then you have elves only 15%. Please clarify.
Well, no bannings, as I thought. Wizards believes that the anti-elf tools are there, and I agree. I thought they did a great job to reserve the timing of ban decisions if need be since they can't be sure however.
Honestly, it does not seem terrible.
There are a lot of ways to deal with the elf deck, from Slice and Dice to discard. I just hope they ban something, because I refuse to play with Slice and Dice in my sideboard.
Forgive my ignorance as I only play type II, but wouldn't siding in Leyline of Singularity really slow down the combo?
Yes you are right, I should have squeezed in at least one of the Bonesplinters and I probably could have taken out the Goble for it. Don't just discount the Goblet though, it has it's uses and it worked pretty decent for me this draft. I have seen it steal seven life points which is significant if you have burn and fast creatures. But yea, should have had the Bonesplinters in there.
Here's the deal with cards like Blightning vs. creatures. Now do understand, I don't think Blightning is a bad card. Blightning just doesn't require an answer, it's not a threat and doesn't affect the board. Sure, you get two cards and three damage, but you lose a card as well. The Jund cycle of +1/+1 creatures on creature death however, each one of them says "Deal with me or I will kill you."
As to the lands. They help you to be more consistant without dropping any power from your deck as they are not spells. Much more powerful than they look at first glance.
I have to second the Bone Splinters love here.
I would love it if you gave more information about certain picks. To be honest I suck at drafting and I would never think of drafting a land as my 2nd pick, but now I understand your desire to stay open.
But why would you not pick blightning? What makes it worth less than the 1/1 first striker?
I think it would be great if you elaborated a bit more on some picks, it helps us get more information about what's good!
I liked it. A clean, nice and enjoyable article.
I for one, am not interested in this format but I do read such stuff when it's on puremtgo.com. So most part of it was new-ish for me. I'm sure most players did knew everything about what's been said in the article but still, there are some players just like me.
So thanks for posting it.
re: anonymous
Please keep your comments constructive as they do nothing to add to the conversation. There is a nice way to tell someone what you said.
I think you're definitely right about Predator Dragon - I didn't give that card enough credit. There are lots of situations with this deck where a Predator Dragon just wins you the game immediately.
Predator Dragon is a house. I run him as a 2-of and he can outright win games. Never underestimate a huge hasty flier. I'm going to have to playtest torrent of souls later, it looks good. Also, I wasn't sold on Dragon Fodder initially, but I actually run them quite a bit now. Sometimes what I need is early defense against weenie rushes and the tokens certainly do the job.
You're welcome Mr. Steal Other People's Work and Use It As Your Own.
I'm not sure if that chart is of your design or not, but it is by far the most impressive lucid breakdown of a pro tour event I have ever seen.
I, too, am wanting to hear a little less of the 'what' of the deck - we've seen the lists. But now, let's analyze the 'why' this card over that card. Was the winning deck a fluke version of Elves? Was the 9-0 a fluke (40% of Tez didn't day 2)? What card choices are going to optimize my chances of success in future events? I want to hear the reasoning behind the choices.
Thanks for the breakdown!
Onyx Goblet over Bonesplinters? Seriously?
Nice deck though, you seem to be at a point where you understand the format for the most part.
This is a nice series.
It seems you are just getting good cards instead of making a deck at P3 P1. The zombie is a lot better for your deck missing creatures and with the splinters.
Congrats
Well it was relevant when I wrote it a week and a half ago. Unfortunately it got lost in the submission process. But thanks for the constructive criticism Mr. Anonymous.
Been covered a hundred times everywhere else. No value added.
You're right man, that's a mistake on my part. I take pretty detailed notes as I play, and then write up the report right after the game - so I'm not sure what happened there. My apologies.
Yeah it did seem really weird that the list used was using Magus of the Moon. Blame it on a coverage guy if it happens to be the blue one :)
Hmm, game 8 you said his primal command took out your hellion. How did he do that?
You say "through the hate" as though the hate somehow slows them down. In reality, the only hate that exists (short of Shock effects) comes online turn 2. So you could have 7 Pyroclasms in your hand, but you're not going to stop them from going off if they're going off on turn 2 on the play. "Through the hate" usually means disruption that makes it harder to achieve a combo, but the hate for elves only exists to punish them if they don't go off on the ideal turn. Worse, much of the hate can be answered by Viridian Shaman.
As Gregandthensome pointed out, Dredge had four 0 or 1 mana answers that would seriously disrupt their combo. Leyline could appear on turn 0 (even on the draw), and Crypt, Extirpate, and Offalsnout would all be online on turn 1. In many cases, you could sit behind a turn 1 swamp and mess up their combo at instant speed. With Elves, there's no equivalent.
To recap: Four serious disruptions to Dredge at 0-1 mana. Zero disruptions to Elves (even shock doesn't do that much) at 0-1 mana. Sure, there's lots at 2-3, but all you can do is hope you make it there. If they get the nut draw, there's nothing you can do.