There is a big difference in "any meta will have a best deck" and "every meta of that format will have the same best deck"; there is also a big difference between "any meta will have a best deck" (probably true, but hard to determine anyway) and "any meta will have a *clear* best deck" (which is fortunately false as most metas don't have a clear best deck, and when they do it is usually a bad sign).
Zoo running Fanatic and Seal maindeck instead of Kird Ape or whatever powerful burn they replaced with Seal isn't "more really good cards". There are good reasons that those cards weren't really in mainstream usage in Zoo before Elves dominated Berlin. I'll grant Sculler as an interesting maindeck choice even without Elves, but Canonist maindeck is just short of Kataki maindeck (if Affinity was the clear best deck instead of Elves). Sure, they swing for 2 - for 2 mana. Kird Ape does it for 1 mana and people replaced it with Fanatic. Don't be naive.
The consistency reasoning is completely separate from power level evaluations, but is certainly a relevant consideration when discussing B&R decisions. As far as I see it every single reason put forward for Top getting banned exists in the Elves deck (and really I haven't seen anyone deny that). Elves deck can also easily lead to intentional or accidental cheating as I see it, but IMO cheating should always be addressed by the judges, and not by banning cards!
Just a quick note: I believe the Dredge deck is running Magus of the Bazaar, not Magus of the Moon. I could be wrong though. But it does make more sense.
When discussing bannings, Top cannot compare at all to Elves. Top made so many games go to time, encouraged shuffling, and it enabled cheating (switching cards via sleight of hand, looking at too many cards, etc). And because it was a 1 mana artifact, it could go in any deck. CounterTop was a good deck, but it could be beaten, and it probably wasn't even the best deck in the format. Top will stay banned.
As to whether Glimpse/Heritage Druid/Nettle Sentinel will be banned, I have no idea. I'd give it 50/50 odds that at least one component will be banned in December.
I gotta say I like the budgetizing of the deck. As someone without the reflecting pools online it is helpful. That, along with the walk throughs, matches, and different options of where to go with the deck leads to a very thorough article. Good job, and I'm looking forward to more decks!
I'm not saying it doesn't happen; I think LSV mentioned he had 3 turn kills that event in what, 50 tournament games. I expect the average is less than that.
I was going to say that you should've compared Garruk vs Sarkhan, but then you did. Then I was going to say that this deck was stupidly expensive and that not even 5 color control costs much more. (Even though you're not BoaB, I know.) But then you adressed that too. Actually that's a really long article. You pretty much covered everything.
I'm not really a fan of devour. I'm sure I sound like a newbie who doesn't want to sacrifice anything. But outside of building around it, which you did fantastically, or using the Predator Dragon as a finisher in the elves combo, I don't think it's useful. You'll either never be able to use it, or you won't want to consolidate your army because you're fearing removal. +1/+1 counters aren't worth a lot.
please read Luis Scott-Vargas' tournament report on StarCity.
"Round 13 versus Kenny Oberg
Game 1 He is on the play, and has turn 2 Mox into Trinket Mage for Chalice of the Void. I can’t win with a Chalice out, so I have the perfectly reasonable response of simply winning on my turn 2 instead. "
Or look at Benjamin Peebles Mundy, Adriian Sullivan and other talking about Elves. Turn two happens. The decks do just fine playing through Chalice. etc.
The chances of elves going off on turn 2 are pretty remote. Someone show me the math. Pyroclasm is just fine, and the others are the 3cc quite answers are quite fine too except in unlucky circumstances.
There will be a best deck in any given meta. The fact that Zoo has tweaked their build to have MORE REALLY GOOD CARDS STILL IN IT that just happen to beat up elves is not a testament to a warped meta. You're wayyy too anxious to see Top unbanned or Elves banned. Consistancy has nothing to do with it. They're two different issues.
i keep trying 2 watch ur videos theres one for 1:11 and it only goes for 1 second be4 it ends...either my comps messed up or ur vids are...just saying any way...cant watch anything
I think many of you are underestimating Elves, or at least overestimating the answers to it. In most cases, board sweepers are too slow. Heck, ANYTHING that costs more than 1 is too slow! Let's recap:
2 mana (too slow on the draw if they go off turn 2): Chalice, Pyroclasm, Explosives (if you drop it on turn 1), Canonist
3 mana (waaay to slow, on play or draw): Firespout, Jund Charm (good luck with the mana), Trinisphere, Infest
4 mana (why bother?): Night of Souls' Betrayal, Wrath, Tezzer, Worship, etc
The only half-reliable answers are the ones that cost 0 or 1 mana. Tremor, anyone? Seeing as there are no zeros, it's down to the various Shock effects, and possibly Extirpate (thought if they already resolved Glipse, you've probably lost). Also note that even if you resolve a sweeper, Symbiote lets them save their best guy and they can often rebuild in a turn or two. Not to mention they may have a full hand from previous Glimpse shenanigans...
I run 4 SB Martyr of Ashes in any deck with significant Red presence. Even that can be too slow , but at least I can pop it at instant speed.
You were there in Berlin, which is the only paper event having Elves, so I'd like to ask you... Do Elves deck frequently go to time? Is the deck significantly better than Top in that aspect, or about the same? I had the impression it was similar to Top decks in terms of time consumption...
I think there was a single game of Elves mirror in the top 8 that took like an hour, so from the event coverage I got the impression that whenever an Elves player combos out it can easily take a LOT of time (I'm only familiar with how the deck performs online). The mirror is bad depending on the board situation (book keeping and so on), but even against an "hate" deck if Elves manages to combo it is a huge mess not just in potentially missing triggers but also in other time consuming aspects (shuffling after each tutor effect, noting down how much floating mana many times, putting tokens in, trying to keep note of what is tapped and what is untapped, or which creatures have "summoning sickness").
Another question - someone said in the officials forum that Top was banned because of cheating. It was the first time I heard that, and if true I don't remember that being the official policy. As a paper judge you may know about it... If that was an important "secret" factor in getting Top banned (it was providing cheating opportunities) then I certainly think that the Elves deck is once again on par with Top - it will also provide plenty of cheating opportunities in the middle of the book keeping and confusion.
Speaking as a judge in the paper world, I hate Top. It really does add tons of time to a game, More importantly, it means probably 10% of the decks go into extra turns, and that adds an hour or more to the day. Since that hour is basically time wasted for the majority of players - those who have finised their matches and are waiting for the next round to begin - that is bad for tournament Magic. I would be amazed to see Top unbanned.
Also as a judge, I don't like elves. in the paper world, the game does not prompt you for triggers, and it is very, very easy to miss triggers with Elves. At aBerlin, I handed out my first penalties at slightly under 4 minutes into the first round, and I was still seeing penalities at the end. That, alone, is not a reason to ban anything, but it may add a bit of weight for the DCI.
There is a thread in the official forums where I have been writing my opinion.
My 1st choice would be just unban Top, don't ban anything else; otherwise ban just one card: 2nd choice, ban just Nettle (deck will survive and evolve IMO); 3rd choice, ban just Glimpse (deck will survive and evolve, IMO) - see Cloudstone Curio. If the deck doesn't survive at all no big deal anyway, but I think it would - as I see it, it can still be made into a strong, resilient combo deck with a very strong backup of going beatdown. Heritage Druid isn't in my list of cards up for a ban. Birchlore can suitably replace it in most circumstances (1 Birchlore + 1 Nettle = play as many 1 mana Elves from your hand as you want). The deck doesn't need to go "infinite" to win. I rather keep number of cards banned low. Nettle can be sort of replaced by Curio or Intruder Alarm, but we can all agree that makes the deck much less ruthless (if perhaps viable); I think Nettle is the best card to ban if exactly 1 card gets banned.
The biggest point IMO is that it is simply not consistent to keep Top banned and do nothing to address Elves. Top wasn't really banned for power level reasons. I think Elves MAY need bannings on power level reasons, but it may be the case that it does not, I'm not 100% sure. However I'm sure that Elves is a huge time waster in paper (and online to some extent).
Either Top gets unbanned, Elves gets something banned to make it less prevalent, or WotC just ins't being consistent with their B&R decisions. There is no way around that. I don't see many people addressing this viewpoint at all, but I think it is a rather important one because it isn't based on opinions and "little" data (if you can call a 400+ Pro Tour "little").
I actually think Elves has a power level issue (at the very least, it has much more of a power level issue than Top ever did).
I'd certainly like to have more data on top of Berlin. I've been playtesting in the TP room but you probably know as I do that isn't solid data.
I'm hoping our WotC people in MTGO schedule a special PE - the data from that would be very useful towards justifying the existence or lack of power level bans.
My current opinion has changed very little since I saw Elves dominating PT Berlin. They can run the beatdown plan (even going for it as the main plan when the opponent can't afford to not sideboard in heavily against the combo); they can even maindeck 4 shamans and 4 thoughseize without slowing down their combo significantly.
Elves is just too resilient to hate. It's not impossible to win against it, but people are seriously talking about 8 sideboard cards on top of a maindeck pre-tuned with cards that are better against Elves but are worse in the abstract. Come on! Is that a healthy format?
A good example is Zoo. With scullers, fanatics, seal of fire and canonists, many of each maindecked and some of them sideboard. Yes, it can probably beat Elves consistently. That Zoo decks are going to that extent is a sign of a warped metagame to me, though.
I think the deck is very good, but no more warping than Dredge was. I believe this, except I think it's emminently more beatable g1 than that deck was. Here's the thing, Fae and Tezzeret decks both have decent matches against it. If they aren't favored, than they have slight edges against the Elves deck! That's already a good sign. Now take into account that decks like Goblins can absolutely destroy the deck if constructed properly. One that wasn't particularly geared toward beating Elves went 4-1 against it at the PT. Not a legit sample size I agree, but another ancedotal piece of evidence toward a little overhype.
Now I take the MODO 8-mans into account to some degree. Elves have completely flooded the 8-man queues. We took our Zoo deck, made some minor adjustments, Canonist Main, Fanatic over Kird Ape, etc. cards that are good in general, but slightly geared toward beating Elves. The single concession we made was addinig Pyrostatic Pillar specifically to help against them, since Wild Nacatl + removal + Pillar is usually GG.
As a team with our Zoo decks, we have gone 14-2 against them in matches. Other people have reported similar types of results with modified Affinity and Dredge. The deck is very good, but hardly unbeatable. It skews the metagame, but no moreso than CB-Top or Dredge did imo. And that's the key. It isn't a level of warping we haven't seen before, in fact it was just last season we saw this!
It's not really worth comparing Elves! to Dredge. Leyline and Crypt both effectively cost zero. What does Extended have to beat Elves! with such effeciency?
What I'm saying isn't that it doesn't warrant a banning, I mean it could be that it does. I'm saying that last year people packed MORE hate for Ichy, and still lost to it quite a bit, and in a more degenerate manner, and still no bannings occured.
Remember, sideboards last year started LLotV x 4, Crypt x 4. Ichy sbs started 4 chain, 4 pithing needle, and some other anti-hate hate. People haven't built the "anti-elf" sb, at least not like we saw last year for Ichy. The pros knew about Elves. However, they didn't know HOW dominant elves was. It was seen as viable, but not the best deck before the PT. If it dominates through 8 SB cards (and I'm not counting decks that have very little game against elves anyway), then maybe bannings should occur. But until people are giving it respect when they build their decks, it's unfair to call for bannings or assume they will occur.
Seriously, though, I remember the combo winter bannings. I was playing and writing about this stuff during PT Lin Sivvi, all three rounds of Trix bannings, PT Tinker, BBS's reign and the various forms of Affinity. I remember the prebanning formats, and the DCI rationals for bannings. The DCI takes action when a card warps the metagame. All of the banned decks could be beaten. The problem was that you had to devote so much hate to beating those decks that you could not compete against anything else.
Sure, there are cards that beat Elves. The problem is that everyone had them in sideboards at Berlin, and they were not enough. 6/8th of the T8, all of the T4, etc. Predicting the future is never perfect, but all the evidence says that this situation is nearly identical to the situations where the DCI has banned cards in the past. Sure, this time could be different, but I doubt it.
I agree that some answers are too slow,a nd the deck may be too strong, but:
"The pros knew about it. Over a hundred players played it. We judges knew about it. Even the dealers knew about it. By early Wednesday, the dealers were totally sold out of Glimpse of Nature, and that fact was also widely known. Sideboards and main decks were packed with answers, including Engineered Explosives, Chalice of the Void, Trinisphere, Ethersworn Canonist, Dead//Gone, Pyroclasm, Infest, Extirpate (you hit the Glimpse), even Night of Soul’s Betrayal. I watched people sideboard in nine or ten cards against Elves – and it often made no difference. "
That quote seemed to indicate people heavily sided for the matchup, and looking at most people's lists, they WEREN'T siding heavily against the deck. T hey'd have 4 Chalice SB and call it good. Or 2 Canonists MD and then 4 more cards from the side, and figure that was sufficient hate. This deck is like Friggorid from last year. It is the best deck. You NEED 8+ SB cards for it. Frig wasn't banned out. Should Elves be? Not imo, but maybe if people start siding a ton of cards and it still wins. For now though, people built their decks almost totally ignoring that Elves was not just good, but was the BEST deck.
p1 p6 I would get the guardians (they can ensure ground defense for esper flyers)
P2 p1 I would get the gargoyle for sure.
P2 p2, deft duelist makes sure people will not attack you when you fly over their head. Esper charm is the worse charm in draft.
p2 p3 the flyer
This archetype for me is to have a stall on the ground and beat the oppo using the flyers. Deft duelist and guardians hold all the ground you will need to make the flyers finish the job.
I appreciate the article, and its cool that you took a stand are not wish washy.
I don't think elves will be banned. If the field really becomes even more lopsided in view of PT Berlin, there is just so much that can be done to make an "elf-smasher" deck, like darkblast, peppersmoke, even scar. If the format just ends there and we have elf decks and elf-smash decks, then your right, but I think its too early to tell. The question really becomes if a third or fourth deck arises that has *some* game against elves, and can destroy the "elf smash" strategies.
For now, it just seems like a really good idea to come up with some *new* strategies that pummel elves and try them out. It really is a deck builder's paradise right now. Even with all these devleoped decks out there, most of them are worthless and the landscape is pretty wide open. I might be way too optimistic, but it just seems to me that there are a lot of possibilites and a lot of things that elves cannot deal with at all.
I appreciate you brought a lot of evidence to your side of the argument (dealer supplies, substantial sideboard hate was insufficient, etc.), however I'm still inclined to disagree. There are many hate cards that are sufficiently playable to make a reasonable rock-paper-scissors metagame, and hopefully with even a 4th or 5th deck.
They've been listed before, but Jund Charm, Firespout, Brain Freeze (in storm decks), Trinisphere, Canonist, Chalice of the Void, Explosives, Thoughtseize are all powerful cards that can either directly go into a lot of decks or simply graduate from a niche strategy to a metagame maindeck choice. It sucks that many of those answers are artifacts and that Viridian Shaman is so good. Maybe Zoo can try to catch Elves with its pants down with a naked Worship from the board.
Anyways, my main point is that Berlin was evidence for banning - not proof of such. More information needs to be gathered; who knows? MTGO may have already given the B&R that evidence.
Well, one thing we have in common - all of us are somewhere between curious and anxious for 12/1.
Thanks for the feedback guys, I will make sure to keep the decks coming - and make sure to always include budget-friendly versions.
There is a big difference in "any meta will have a best deck" and "every meta of that format will have the same best deck"; there is also a big difference between "any meta will have a best deck" (probably true, but hard to determine anyway) and "any meta will have a *clear* best deck" (which is fortunately false as most metas don't have a clear best deck, and when they do it is usually a bad sign).
Zoo running Fanatic and Seal maindeck instead of Kird Ape or whatever powerful burn they replaced with Seal isn't "more really good cards". There are good reasons that those cards weren't really in mainstream usage in Zoo before Elves dominated Berlin. I'll grant Sculler as an interesting maindeck choice even without Elves, but Canonist maindeck is just short of Kataki maindeck (if Affinity was the clear best deck instead of Elves). Sure, they swing for 2 - for 2 mana. Kird Ape does it for 1 mana and people replaced it with Fanatic. Don't be naive.
The consistency reasoning is completely separate from power level evaluations, but is certainly a relevant consideration when discussing B&R decisions. As far as I see it every single reason put forward for Top getting banned exists in the Elves deck (and really I haven't seen anyone deny that). Elves deck can also easily lead to intentional or accidental cheating as I see it, but IMO cheating should always be addressed by the judges, and not by banning cards!
Just a quick note: I believe the Dredge deck is running Magus of the Bazaar, not Magus of the Moon. I could be wrong though. But it does make more sense.
When discussing bannings, Top cannot compare at all to Elves. Top made so many games go to time, encouraged shuffling, and it enabled cheating (switching cards via sleight of hand, looking at too many cards, etc). And because it was a 1 mana artifact, it could go in any deck. CounterTop was a good deck, but it could be beaten, and it probably wasn't even the best deck in the format. Top will stay banned.
As to whether Glimpse/Heritage Druid/Nettle Sentinel will be banned, I have no idea. I'd give it 50/50 odds that at least one component will be banned in December.
I gotta say I like the budgetizing of the deck. As someone without the reflecting pools online it is helpful. That, along with the walk throughs, matches, and different options of where to go with the deck leads to a very thorough article. Good job, and I'm looking forward to more decks!
3 turn-2 kills...again goldfist and tell me the numbers...then tell me how many through hate...
I'm not saying it doesn't happen; I think LSV mentioned he had 3 turn kills that event in what, 50 tournament games. I expect the average is less than that.
I was going to say that you should've compared Garruk vs Sarkhan, but then you did. Then I was going to say that this deck was stupidly expensive and that not even 5 color control costs much more. (Even though you're not BoaB, I know.) But then you adressed that too. Actually that's a really long article. You pretty much covered everything.
I'm not really a fan of devour. I'm sure I sound like a newbie who doesn't want to sacrifice anything. But outside of building around it, which you did fantastically, or using the Predator Dragon as a finisher in the elves combo, I don't think it's useful. You'll either never be able to use it, or you won't want to consolidate your army because you're fearing removal. +1/+1 counters aren't worth a lot.
please read Luis Scott-Vargas' tournament report on StarCity.
"Round 13 versus Kenny Oberg
Game 1
He is on the play, and has turn 2 Mox into Trinket Mage for Chalice of the Void. I can’t win with a Chalice out, so I have the perfectly reasonable response of simply winning on my turn 2 instead. "
Or look at Benjamin Peebles Mundy, Adriian Sullivan and other talking about Elves. Turn two happens. The decks do just fine playing through Chalice. etc.
The chances of elves going off on turn 2 are pretty remote. Someone show me the math. Pyroclasm is just fine, and the others are the 3cc quite answers are quite fine too except in unlucky circumstances.
There will be a best deck in any given meta. The fact that Zoo has tweaked their build to have MORE REALLY GOOD CARDS STILL IN IT that just happen to beat up elves is not a testament to a warped meta. You're wayyy too anxious to see Top unbanned or Elves banned. Consistancy has nothing to do with it. They're two different issues.
i keep trying 2 watch ur videos theres one for 1:11 and it only goes for 1 second be4 it ends...either my comps messed up or ur vids are...just saying any way...cant watch anything
I think many of you are underestimating Elves, or at least overestimating the answers to it. In most cases, board sweepers are too slow. Heck, ANYTHING that costs more than 1 is too slow! Let's recap:
2 mana (too slow on the draw if they go off turn 2): Chalice, Pyroclasm, Explosives (if you drop it on turn 1), Canonist
3 mana (waaay to slow, on play or draw): Firespout, Jund Charm (good luck with the mana), Trinisphere, Infest
4 mana (why bother?): Night of Souls' Betrayal, Wrath, Tezzer, Worship, etc
The only half-reliable answers are the ones that cost 0 or 1 mana. Tremor, anyone? Seeing as there are no zeros, it's down to the various Shock effects, and possibly Extirpate (thought if they already resolved Glipse, you've probably lost). Also note that even if you resolve a sweeper, Symbiote lets them save their best guy and they can often rebuild in a turn or two. Not to mention they may have a full hand from previous Glimpse shenanigans...
I run 4 SB Martyr of Ashes in any deck with significant Red presence. Even that can be too slow , but at least I can pop it at instant speed.
You were there in Berlin, which is the only paper event having Elves, so I'd like to ask you... Do Elves deck frequently go to time? Is the deck significantly better than Top in that aspect, or about the same? I had the impression it was similar to Top decks in terms of time consumption...
I think there was a single game of Elves mirror in the top 8 that took like an hour, so from the event coverage I got the impression that whenever an Elves player combos out it can easily take a LOT of time (I'm only familiar with how the deck performs online). The mirror is bad depending on the board situation (book keeping and so on), but even against an "hate" deck if Elves manages to combo it is a huge mess not just in potentially missing triggers but also in other time consuming aspects (shuffling after each tutor effect, noting down how much floating mana many times, putting tokens in, trying to keep note of what is tapped and what is untapped, or which creatures have "summoning sickness").
Another question - someone said in the officials forum that Top was banned because of cheating. It was the first time I heard that, and if true I don't remember that being the official policy. As a paper judge you may know about it... If that was an important "secret" factor in getting Top banned (it was providing cheating opportunities) then I certainly think that the Elves deck is once again on par with Top - it will also provide plenty of cheating opportunities in the middle of the book keeping and confusion.
Good post. Just a couple points.
Speaking as a judge in the paper world, I hate Top. It really does add tons of time to a game, More importantly, it means probably 10% of the decks go into extra turns, and that adds an hour or more to the day. Since that hour is basically time wasted for the majority of players - those who have finised their matches and are waiting for the next round to begin - that is bad for tournament Magic. I would be amazed to see Top unbanned.
Also as a judge, I don't like elves. in the paper world, the game does not prompt you for triggers, and it is very, very easy to miss triggers with Elves. At aBerlin, I handed out my first penalties at slightly under 4 minutes into the first round, and I was still seeing penalities at the end. That, alone, is not a reason to ban anything, but it may add a bit of weight for the DCI.
There is a thread in the official forums where I have been writing my opinion.
My 1st choice would be just unban Top, don't ban anything else; otherwise ban just one card: 2nd choice, ban just Nettle (deck will survive and evolve IMO); 3rd choice, ban just Glimpse (deck will survive and evolve, IMO) - see Cloudstone Curio. If the deck doesn't survive at all no big deal anyway, but I think it would - as I see it, it can still be made into a strong, resilient combo deck with a very strong backup of going beatdown. Heritage Druid isn't in my list of cards up for a ban. Birchlore can suitably replace it in most circumstances (1 Birchlore + 1 Nettle = play as many 1 mana Elves from your hand as you want). The deck doesn't need to go "infinite" to win. I rather keep number of cards banned low. Nettle can be sort of replaced by Curio or Intruder Alarm, but we can all agree that makes the deck much less ruthless (if perhaps viable); I think Nettle is the best card to ban if exactly 1 card gets banned.
The biggest point IMO is that it is simply not consistent to keep Top banned and do nothing to address Elves. Top wasn't really banned for power level reasons. I think Elves MAY need bannings on power level reasons, but it may be the case that it does not, I'm not 100% sure. However I'm sure that Elves is a huge time waster in paper (and online to some extent).
Either Top gets unbanned, Elves gets something banned to make it less prevalent, or WotC just ins't being consistent with their B&R decisions. There is no way around that. I don't see many people addressing this viewpoint at all, but I think it is a rather important one because it isn't based on opinions and "little" data (if you can call a 400+ Pro Tour "little").
I actually think Elves has a power level issue (at the very least, it has much more of a power level issue than Top ever did).
I'd certainly like to have more data on top of Berlin. I've been playtesting in the TP room but you probably know as I do that isn't solid data.
I'm hoping our WotC people in MTGO schedule a special PE - the data from that would be very useful towards justifying the existence or lack of power level bans.
My current opinion has changed very little since I saw Elves dominating PT Berlin. They can run the beatdown plan (even going for it as the main plan when the opponent can't afford to not sideboard in heavily against the combo); they can even maindeck 4 shamans and 4 thoughseize without slowing down their combo significantly.
Elves is just too resilient to hate. It's not impossible to win against it, but people are seriously talking about 8 sideboard cards on top of a maindeck pre-tuned with cards that are better against Elves but are worse in the abstract. Come on! Is that a healthy format?
A good example is Zoo. With scullers, fanatics, seal of fire and canonists, many of each maindecked and some of them sideboard. Yes, it can probably beat Elves consistently. That Zoo decks are going to that extent is a sign of a warped metagame to me, though.
I think the deck is very good, but no more warping than Dredge was. I believe this, except I think it's emminently more beatable g1 than that deck was. Here's the thing, Fae and Tezzeret decks both have decent matches against it. If they aren't favored, than they have slight edges against the Elves deck! That's already a good sign. Now take into account that decks like Goblins can absolutely destroy the deck if constructed properly. One that wasn't particularly geared toward beating Elves went 4-1 against it at the PT. Not a legit sample size I agree, but another ancedotal piece of evidence toward a little overhype.
Now I take the MODO 8-mans into account to some degree. Elves have completely flooded the 8-man queues. We took our Zoo deck, made some minor adjustments, Canonist Main, Fanatic over Kird Ape, etc. cards that are good in general, but slightly geared toward beating Elves. The single concession we made was addinig Pyrostatic Pillar specifically to help against them, since Wild Nacatl + removal + Pillar is usually GG.
As a team with our Zoo decks, we have gone 14-2 against them in matches. Other people have reported similar types of results with modified Affinity and Dredge. The deck is very good, but hardly unbeatable. It skews the metagame, but no moreso than CB-Top or Dredge did imo. And that's the key. It isn't a level of warping we haven't seen before, in fact it was just last season we saw this!
Just my thoughts.
It's not really worth comparing Elves! to Dredge. Leyline and Crypt both effectively cost zero. What does Extended have to beat Elves! with such effeciency?
What I'm saying isn't that it doesn't warrant a banning, I mean it could be that it does. I'm saying that last year people packed MORE hate for Ichy, and still lost to it quite a bit, and in a more degenerate manner, and still no bannings occured.
Remember, sideboards last year started LLotV x 4, Crypt x 4. Ichy sbs started 4 chain, 4 pithing needle, and some other anti-hate hate. People haven't built the "anti-elf" sb, at least not like we saw last year for Ichy. The pros knew about Elves. However, they didn't know HOW dominant elves was. It was seen as viable, but not the best deck before the PT. If it dominates through 8 SB cards (and I'm not counting decks that have very little game against elves anyway), then maybe bannings should occur. But until people are giving it respect when they build their decks, it's unfair to call for bannings or assume they will occur.
:)
Seriously, though, I remember the combo winter bannings. I was playing and writing about this stuff during PT Lin Sivvi, all three rounds of Trix bannings, PT Tinker, BBS's reign and the various forms of Affinity. I remember the prebanning formats, and the DCI rationals for bannings. The DCI takes action when a card warps the metagame. All of the banned decks could be beaten. The problem was that you had to devote so much hate to beating those decks that you could not compete against anything else.
Sure, there are cards that beat Elves. The problem is that everyone had them in sideboards at Berlin, and they were not enough. 6/8th of the T8, all of the T4, etc. Predicting the future is never perfect, but all the evidence says that this situation is nearly identical to the situations where the DCI has banned cards in the past. Sure, this time could be different, but I doubt it.
I agree that some answers are too slow,a nd the deck may be too strong, but:
"The pros knew about it. Over a hundred players played it. We judges knew about it. Even the dealers knew about it. By early Wednesday, the dealers were totally sold out of Glimpse of Nature, and that fact was also widely known. Sideboards and main decks were packed with answers, including Engineered Explosives, Chalice of the Void, Trinisphere, Ethersworn Canonist, Dead//Gone, Pyroclasm, Infest, Extirpate (you hit the Glimpse), even Night of Soul’s Betrayal. I watched people sideboard in nine or ten cards against Elves – and it often made no difference. "
That quote seemed to indicate people heavily sided for the matchup, and looking at most people's lists, they WEREN'T siding heavily against the deck. T hey'd have 4 Chalice SB and call it good. Or 2 Canonists MD and then 4 more cards from the side, and figure that was sufficient hate. This deck is like Friggorid from last year. It is the best deck. You NEED 8+ SB cards for it. Frig wasn't banned out. Should Elves be? Not imo, but maybe if people start siding a ton of cards and it still wins. For now though, people built their decks almost totally ignoring that Elves was not just good, but was the BEST deck.
I appreciate the article, and its cool that you took a stand are not wish washy.
I don't think elves will be banned. If the field really becomes even more lopsided in view of PT Berlin, there is just so much that can be done to make an "elf-smasher" deck, like darkblast, peppersmoke, even scar. If the format just ends there and we have elf decks and elf-smash decks, then your right, but I think its too early to tell. The question really becomes if a third or fourth deck arises that has *some* game against elves, and can destroy the "elf smash" strategies.
For now, it just seems like a really good idea to come up with some *new* strategies that pummel elves and try them out. It really is a deck builder's paradise right now. Even with all these devleoped decks out there, most of them are worthless and the landscape is pretty wide open. I might be way too optimistic, but it just seems to me that there are a lot of possibilites and a lot of things that elves cannot deal with at all.
Another potential solution is to unban Sensei's Divining Top, right? Although that does seem unlikely.
I appreciate you brought a lot of evidence to your side of the argument (dealer supplies, substantial sideboard hate was insufficient, etc.), however I'm still inclined to disagree. There are many hate cards that are sufficiently playable to make a reasonable rock-paper-scissors metagame, and hopefully with even a 4th or 5th deck.
They've been listed before, but Jund Charm, Firespout, Brain Freeze (in storm decks), Trinisphere, Canonist, Chalice of the Void, Explosives, Thoughtseize are all powerful cards that can either directly go into a lot of decks or simply graduate from a niche strategy to a metagame maindeck choice. It sucks that many of those answers are artifacts and that Viridian Shaman is so good. Maybe Zoo can try to catch Elves with its pants down with a naked Worship from the board.
Anyways, my main point is that Berlin was evidence for banning - not proof of such. More information needs to be gathered; who knows? MTGO may have already given the B&R that evidence.
Well, one thing we have in common - all of us are somewhere between curious and anxious for 12/1.