The problem with Chrome Mox is, as I said, I find it inferior to Lotus Petal for what you usually need it for - two mana on turn 1. Because I like my colored cards.
I certainly wouldn't fault you for keeping it.
As far as Decree of Justice - it's far too expensive to hold on to so you can run it in just one deck. Nothing wrong with the card in landstill, but I have the feeling classic-only rares that are a 1 or 2 of in just one deck - especially one who's meta game viablity isn't certain - won't remain at it's lofty price by 2008.
Boseiju is an ok card as well. It's pretty narrow - I'd certainly not have it in my deck specifically in the hopes I'd draw Boseiju + Abeyance + the actual combo you want to protect.
How often did you win in Week 1 with Drowner of Secrets? My concern with your WU build is your win condition when Drowner dies. As more packs are added, more and more people are opening Nameless Inversion, Shriekmaw, Lash Out, Moonglove Extract, etc and will blow the Drowner up.
While I don't agree with a few of your choices (decree and chrome mox, hi landstill and Merchant Scroll -> Flash), I see a lot of value in this article.
A further word on Chant: Xantid Swarm and Abeyance are basically always better. Swarm because it's harder to counter (if they have a wall of counters, which is all you ever want chant in combo for, they'll use one on chant), and Abeyance because it can be played off of Boseiju, Who Shelters all.
By the way, get Boseijus if you plan on playing combo.
Yeah, Spire Golem is pretty cool, but the effort that it would take to make him blue so that I could sacrifice him to the Spawning Bed probably wouldn't pay off. I'm pretty happy with the build as is. It's not a tournament winner, just a fun deck. That said, I am playing it now with a Coat of Arms and a second Juxtaposition, dropping Sarpadian Empires and a Sunken City (I'd probably play more copies of Coat of Arms if I owned them).
Worth would have to play a pretty big turncoat to not put in the Duals at this point. It would be nothing short of a mutiny at this point after what he went through by not having them in MED. One nice thing about worth - he is not subtle with his hints - the Duals will be in MED II
Sure, Trinispehere is a good sleeper too. Sundering Titan is much better with welder as far as "really ruin your day" type cards, though. The problem with 3sphere is if it ever gets really good, it'll probably be restricted. But hey, you're dfeinitely right - I have some foils and many extras of 3sphere myself. *wink*
Powder Keg is good, but ultimately worse than Explosives for a number of reasons. For one thing, if you want to smash fish face with it, you can't just pay 4 mana and do it... you have to wait 2 upkeeps (fish decks generally run a load of 2cc cards). The othe problem is it can't be tutored by Trinket Mage, nor can it be recurred by Salvagers. Another thing about Explosives that a lot of peopple don't realize is it's immune to Chalice of the Void. If they have Chalice set to 2 and you want to set Explosives to 2, just pay 2 colors and 1 colorless and you are all set to go.
Bribery (and Plow Under) are just awful. Like, plain awful. 5cc cards are not going to make the cut, even on the off chance they can you can steal a Colossus. The only really good thing from 8th was the aforemention Merchant Scroll, which I had forgotten had no upcoming printings.
and while I know Worth on the official boards "mentioned" that "maybe kinda" Alpha Duals will be in MED 2.. it isn't guarenteed until its in the online store so I wouldn't count on them being in just yet... i just wouldn't be able to just 'give up' on the RAV lands just yet.. (but I understand where you are coming from)
The chrome mox thing surprised me.. as did Ravager.. and I agree with most of the points presented.. in the hand you mentioned (Duress, FOW, Stifle, land land, mystical tutor, mox) I don't know that a mox would hurt you say, you draw a second control spell off the top (say random counter) as depending if it was a play first or draw first hand, its hard to count out.. the reason why chrome mox is better than mox diamond (i know we're talking "extended" here more then "classic") is you get to play with more "spells" rather then playing more land but as with diamond you're setting yourself up for a 2 for 1 with all the available cheap artifact kill... so i'm not going to disagree with you there.. I'm not disagreeing with your statement, its just a card if we are never going to have P9 may not be worth "losing" right now.
I thought you'd see more resistance to the "holy" IPA cards... I agree they do nothing and you're money is better spent throwing at other cards.
you failed to mention Powder Keg as another cheap way to fend off Warrens tokens that will be coming "sometime in the next 3 years" I imagine...
I love most of your sleeper cards.. the only other card I can think of out of 8th that could maybe be ok is Bribery.. only because you get their Darksteel colossus .. but it probably costs too much.. (but the games go on a little longer when you are playing control..) I failed to see Trinisphere which is at an obscenely low price right now and is effective against mulitle "cheap" strategies and will only get better when Goblin Welder, Metalworker, and Smokestacks come online..
great article a lot of the cards I had to make sure I checked to see if I had.. love it.
P6 How close was Mournwelk to Lowland Oaf? I would prefer Welk in a dedicated Elemental deck, but Oaf seems a safer pick.
P7 Eyes as a pure rare-draft? What is is going for now? worth taking over Loggers which I feel is a fine cards as colors are not set yet.
P13 Merrow Commerce over Spellstutter is this pure hate? as I much prefer the sprite.
P32 No problem with Hero over Spitfire, as you are in pack 3 and don't have the enablers for a dedicated Elemental deck.
P34 uh....Gift! I wonder what was in that pack that the first 3 players took over Mulldrifter? Never seem to get the Drifter that late....
P37 Hoofprints over Angler? I know hoofprints can be good, but at this point white is dedicated to a splash, and Hoofprints works best when out early. I think I would go for teh consistancy of the Angler
Next time hopefully I can integrate the draft directky into the article so I can leave easier feedback as to each pick. Concerning the Flamekin Spitfire/Changeling Hero, normally in a dedicated flamekin deck I would pick the spitfire, just because it can power rediculous removal off of a smokebraider or two, and be useful to anything from caterwauling boggart to nova chaser. However, Changeling hero, (also getting pumped off elementals), was in my splash color, but I had quite a bit of fixing, and I needed a powerhouse. I had brion and hostility, but that was about it. I also had a couple of CIP effects with it, and the mulldrifter two picks later even sweetened the deal.
Excellent article. Just a question about Pack 32. You passed off a Flamekin Spitfire for a Changeling Hero. No doubt, the Changeling is the better card but was in your splash color. Was just wondering your thoughts on Flamekin Spitfire's value in general and specifically in this deck.
Couldn't edit my previous post and throw this in after reading your comment but Polar Kraken is 11, not 10. Also makes 4 11 drops not 3. I don't hardly ever go for 11 unless I magically have that much mana. Another 9 bomb to watch out for is Crimson Hellkite. If you are a good momir player, you know to run many many more mountains and swamps than any other lands in the deck because there are more abilities from this. Crimson is like the 9 drop for Avatar of Woe.
Also I will point out that there are 6, 0 drop possibilities not just 5. Phyrexian Marauder is also in that list even though his cost is X. I know this because I'm a 0 drop player. I ALWAYS go for 0 instead of 1. You have a better chance of getting something good at 0 than at 1, which is either ornithopter or dryad arbor, as one is a flying chump blocker and one is mana accel. The reason being is there are so many horrible 1 drops that it's just not worth the effort, it's better to try for dryad arbor (1-6) than to try for a good 1 drop which is much much less. Talking thousands of bad 1 drops. The dryad arbor is what you are looking for. In my experiences, I've also realized that going LAST and taking the draw has been much more consistant with wins as you don't have to skip but 1 drop and if you manage some mana accel you don't have to skip at all, and that puts a huge advantage on your side. The way I usually go is 0, then 2-6, and skip 7. I never try for 7 as a simple Phage could ruin the game. Granted it's not very likely, but I've seen it more often than I want to. If I manage mana acceleration early so I don't have to skip, I usually just go 6 twice. 6 and 8 both have some sick drops. With the things I have learned and started using to my advantage...I've won many more than I have lost. I usually only lose when it's just not your day, as you posted before, could be their flying advantage, or one creature that is pretty much unstopable sorta like Devouring Strossus.
I assume you mean Polar Kraken on 10 or Tidal Kraken on 8. They're both reasonable I suppose, but I don't like Polar Kraken. You're right that 8 can be dangerous. I see what you're saying about going ot 9 once you get something gassy on 8, but I'm afraid of giving my opponent the extra drop on me. I think either course of action is defensible, but I definitely see your point.
Mannequin Blink is similar to Mannequin, but also runs Momentary Blink with sufficient white mana sources in order to further abuse comes-into-play abilities, and make the creatures reanimated with Makeshift Mannequin into real boys.
Blink works fine to re-use the abilities, or just evoke and get double-usage of the 187s, but not on the Manni-men. That's what I was referring to.
You talk about 11 mana drops an forget the tidal kraken. It's a decent beater as well. Your strategy about the one drops I initially used too, but the more I play Momir, the more I like the conservative strategy. Curving out from 3 to 8 on the play or 2 to 8 on the draw just seems too good. Theres so much fluff for one drops that unless you hit a bomb like llanowar elves or planar guide you are going to be dissapointed. In addition you forget to mention the card which completely wreck you namely leveler phage and denizen of the deep. Of these, denizen is the most potent, which seems odd because you don't auto loss from it, but it is practically an auto loss. Throw that on top of the fact that 8 is the dezired number and you begin to get an idea why playing around that guy is huge because the number of 8 drops isnt that substantial. That's why I try and stabalize at 8 and hit a removal creature like avatar of woe, gorgon, or try and hit an "insurance" creature like a board sweeper, namely bloodfire collossus. Once I acheive one of those cards, I move to 9 because it is safe, meaning there is no likelyhood of hitting denizen of the deep, and yes, on average the cards aren't as good at 9 but you can hit a bringer (R,U,G) or blazing archon. In general though, yes Momir is lots of fun!
First off, everyone else talks about cards that wheel or will make it back around. Calling them wraparounds imo needless complicates your terminology. Hoping to wheel Douser in that first pack is pretty silly its a first pick quality card. If you look at that pack the most powerful card is Reejerey follow by in no real order, O Ring, Douser, Tarfire. Some one who thinks its good and/or rare will take the Gate and Aethersnipe is also not a card that should wheel. You shouldn't plan on getting any of those, you're lucky to see one come back (assuming table has good players). You can hope no one is going treefolk and Battlewand comes back or something like Lignify or the Changeling. Hoping to wheel a first pick quality card is a bit much. That list of cards that might wheel was made before I checked what did and Lingify and the Changeling did. Both are fine cards but from a solid pack they seemed most likely.
Going with the Reejerey p2 seems like a mistake. I would have taken them p1&2 but you're probably going to be cut off from Merfolk pack two. You passed of the best ones pack one and are passing another strong one pack two.
Plover Knights is a really bad pick because its the only white card in the pack. Kithkin are okay if no one else is drafting them but seeing one white card p1p3 is not a good sign of that.
I was talking to Basic Land about the decision and I can honestly say Plover Knights is absolutely a bad choice there. It's a poor choice at best.
Your reasoning is completely off at that point. Your first logic of cutting white assumes that you want to run white. However of the two archetypes that have some success with white (UW, RW), he can't really enter either of them as he lacks red, and his blue signals are further screwed up by the Faerie Harbinger. Whereas his first pick of Obilvion ring is debatable as to being the right pick or not, the very idea that plover knights was a fine pick is fundamentally flawed.
#1, it costs double white. Only in some extreme green mana fixing situations (like multiples of fertile grounds and many vivid lands) is fixing for a double splash even feasible. Therefore by chosing Plover knights you stake yourself into white, something you don't want to do pick 3 (especially after a strong first two picks). The argument for the fact White based archetypes would fail him at this point and the fact that oblivion ring is highly splashable while this isn't, thus he locks himself into white or loses out on a pick answers your #3 and #1. That said, in the abstract, Faerie Harbinger is still a better creature. Even without hsi ability, 2/2 Flying with Flash for 2U?! That's insane, and definitely a stronger pick than plover knights, even in the abstract.
I thought the Plover knights were a fine pick, as 1, they cut white from that pack, 2, they're awesome, and 3, you were pretty sure you'd run at least a little white anyway.
Second, Pack 1, pick 1, you shouldn't expect to see the Douser Wheel, as it's arguably as good or better than the lord (the lord is the better pick of the two though), and Oblivion Ring would be my choice too in that pack. My only beef with your first 3 picks was that I would've taken the Plover Knights with pick 2 also I think, as passing ONLY the Harrier in white in your first 2 picks indicates to him there might not be much white, and you can still try to jump into Merrow with a white core.
I love how your avatar keeps changing ever week. Always keeps them fresh even when the content isn't. kidding kidding great draft analysis man keep them coming we need more draft articles bad.
I meant to elaborate more on Pack 1, Pick 3, Plover Knights was not the best decision. Faerie Harbinger is a much stronger choice, even if I did not go into a Faerie package, being able to EOT and have something of your desire to draw next turn is as close to a tutor as you can get in Lorwyn. If I had it to do over again the Harbinger would have been grabbed and would have supported my other Faeries more.
It may have also signaled and left me with a few more options with faeries or a greater abundance of them.
Nice Article. It could prove useful for me.
One other card that could have potential is High Tide
Any thoughts?
Im not really an expert on classic though so i dont know what the possibility of this seeing play are.
The problem with Chrome Mox is, as I said, I find it inferior to Lotus Petal for what you usually need it for - two mana on turn 1. Because I like my colored cards.
I certainly wouldn't fault you for keeping it.
As far as Decree of Justice - it's far too expensive to hold on to so you can run it in just one deck. Nothing wrong with the card in landstill, but I have the feeling classic-only rares that are a 1 or 2 of in just one deck - especially one who's meta game viablity isn't certain - won't remain at it's lofty price by 2008.
Boseiju is an ok card as well. It's pretty narrow - I'd certainly not have it in my deck specifically in the hopes I'd draw Boseiju + Abeyance + the actual combo you want to protect.
How often did you win in Week 1 with Drowner of Secrets? My concern with your WU build is your win condition when Drowner dies. As more packs are added, more and more people are opening Nameless Inversion, Shriekmaw, Lash Out, Moonglove Extract, etc and will blow the Drowner up.
While I don't agree with a few of your choices (decree and chrome mox, hi landstill and Merchant Scroll -> Flash), I see a lot of value in this article.
A further word on Chant: Xantid Swarm and Abeyance are basically always better. Swarm because it's harder to counter (if they have a wall of counters, which is all you ever want chant in combo for, they'll use one on chant), and Abeyance because it can be played off of Boseiju, Who Shelters all.
By the way, get Boseijus if you plan on playing combo.
Well written.
Looking at the 2 choices - I would lean towards the RB goblin build given that the UW merfolk build is missing Silvergill Douser.
Yeah, Spire Golem is pretty cool, but the effort that it would take to make him blue so that I could sacrifice him to the Spawning Bed probably wouldn't pay off. I'm pretty happy with the build as is. It's not a tournament winner, just a fun deck. That said, I am playing it now with a Coat of Arms and a second Juxtaposition, dropping Sarpadian Empires and a Sunken City (I'd probably play more copies of Coat of Arms if I owned them).
Worth would have to play a pretty big turncoat to not put in the Duals at this point. It would be nothing short of a mutiny at this point after what he went through by not having them in MED. One nice thing about worth - he is not subtle with his hints - the Duals will be in MED II
Sure, Trinispehere is a good sleeper too. Sundering Titan is much better with welder as far as "really ruin your day" type cards, though. The problem with 3sphere is if it ever gets really good, it'll probably be restricted. But hey, you're dfeinitely right - I have some foils and many extras of 3sphere myself. *wink*
Powder Keg is good, but ultimately worse than Explosives for a number of reasons. For one thing, if you want to smash fish face with it, you can't just pay 4 mana and do it... you have to wait 2 upkeeps (fish decks generally run a load of 2cc cards). The othe problem is it can't be tutored by Trinket Mage, nor can it be recurred by Salvagers. Another thing about Explosives that a lot of peopple don't realize is it's immune to Chalice of the Void. If they have Chalice set to 2 and you want to set Explosives to 2, just pay 2 colors and 1 colorless and you are all set to go.
Bribery (and Plow Under) are just awful. Like, plain awful. 5cc cards are not going to make the cut, even on the off chance they can you can steal a Colossus. The only really good thing from 8th was the aforemention Merchant Scroll, which I had forgotten had no upcoming printings.
Lol I think that raredraft is a trait of ModoSharks. Their ratings speak for themselves. They can probably win with rare drafting.
Best Draft article on PureMTGO ever!
it was a good read...
and while I know Worth on the official boards "mentioned" that "maybe kinda" Alpha Duals will be in MED 2.. it isn't guarenteed until its in the online store so I wouldn't count on them being in just yet... i just wouldn't be able to just 'give up' on the RAV lands just yet.. (but I understand where you are coming from)
The chrome mox thing surprised me.. as did Ravager.. and I agree with most of the points presented.. in the hand you mentioned (Duress, FOW, Stifle, land land, mystical tutor, mox) I don't know that a mox would hurt you say, you draw a second control spell off the top (say random counter) as depending if it was a play first or draw first hand, its hard to count out.. the reason why chrome mox is better than mox diamond (i know we're talking "extended" here more then "classic") is you get to play with more "spells" rather then playing more land but as with diamond you're setting yourself up for a 2 for 1 with all the available cheap artifact kill... so i'm not going to disagree with you there.. I'm not disagreeing with your statement, its just a card if we are never going to have P9 may not be worth "losing" right now.
I thought you'd see more resistance to the "holy" IPA cards... I agree they do nothing and you're money is better spent throwing at other cards.
you failed to mention Powder Keg as another cheap way to fend off Warrens tokens that will be coming "sometime in the next 3 years" I imagine...
I love most of your sleeper cards.. the only other card I can think of out of 8th that could maybe be ok is Bribery.. only because you get their Darksteel colossus .. but it probably costs too much.. (but the games go on a little longer when you are playing control..) I failed to see Trinisphere which is at an obscenely low price right now and is effective against mulitle "cheap" strategies and will only get better when Goblin Welder, Metalworker, and Smokestacks come online..
great article a lot of the cards I had to make sure I checked to see if I had.. love it.
Are the Alpha duals confirmed in MED II? This is new to me ^^
P6 How close was Mournwelk to Lowland Oaf? I would prefer Welk in a dedicated Elemental deck, but Oaf seems a safer pick.
P7 Eyes as a pure rare-draft? What is is going for now? worth taking over Loggers which I feel is a fine cards as colors are not set yet.
P13 Merrow Commerce over Spellstutter is this pure hate? as I much prefer the sprite.
P32 No problem with Hero over Spitfire, as you are in pack 3 and don't have the enablers for a dedicated Elemental deck.
P34 uh....Gift! I wonder what was in that pack that the first 3 players took over Mulldrifter? Never seem to get the Drifter that late....
P37 Hoofprints over Angler? I know hoofprints can be good, but at this point white is dedicated to a splash, and Hoofprints works best when out early. I think I would go for teh consistancy of the Angler
Regards,
___helper_monkey on MTGO
Next time hopefully I can integrate the draft directky into the article so I can leave easier feedback as to each pick. Concerning the Flamekin Spitfire/Changeling Hero, normally in a dedicated flamekin deck I would pick the spitfire, just because it can power rediculous removal off of a smokebraider or two, and be useful to anything from caterwauling boggart to nova chaser. However, Changeling hero, (also getting pumped off elementals), was in my splash color, but I had quite a bit of fixing, and I needed a powerhouse. I had brion and hostility, but that was about it. I also had a couple of CIP effects with it, and the mulldrifter two picks later even sweetened the deal.
Excellent article. Just a question about Pack 32. You passed off a Flamekin Spitfire for a Changeling Hero. No doubt, the Changeling is the better card but was in your splash color. Was just wondering your thoughts on Flamekin Spitfire's value in general and specifically in this deck.
Thanks!
Couldn't edit my previous post and throw this in after reading your comment but Polar Kraken is 11, not 10. Also makes 4 11 drops not 3. I don't hardly ever go for 11 unless I magically have that much mana. Another 9 bomb to watch out for is Crimson Hellkite. If you are a good momir player, you know to run many many more mountains and swamps than any other lands in the deck because there are more abilities from this. Crimson is like the 9 drop for Avatar of Woe.
Also I will point out that there are 6, 0 drop possibilities not just 5. Phyrexian Marauder is also in that list even though his cost is X. I know this because I'm a 0 drop player. I ALWAYS go for 0 instead of 1. You have a better chance of getting something good at 0 than at 1, which is either ornithopter or dryad arbor, as one is a flying chump blocker and one is mana accel. The reason being is there are so many horrible 1 drops that it's just not worth the effort, it's better to try for dryad arbor (1-6) than to try for a good 1 drop which is much much less. Talking thousands of bad 1 drops. The dryad arbor is what you are looking for. In my experiences, I've also realized that going LAST and taking the draw has been much more consistant with wins as you don't have to skip but 1 drop and if you manage some mana accel you don't have to skip at all, and that puts a huge advantage on your side. The way I usually go is 0, then 2-6, and skip 7. I never try for 7 as a simple Phage could ruin the game. Granted it's not very likely, but I've seen it more often than I want to. If I manage mana acceleration early so I don't have to skip, I usually just go 6 twice. 6 and 8 both have some sick drops. With the things I have learned and started using to my advantage...I've won many more than I have lost. I usually only lose when it's just not your day, as you posted before, could be their flying advantage, or one creature that is pretty much unstopable sorta like Devouring Strossus.
I assume you mean Polar Kraken on 10 or Tidal Kraken on 8. They're both reasonable I suppose, but I don't like Polar Kraken. You're right that 8 can be dangerous. I see what you're saying about going ot 9 once you get something gassy on 8, but I'm afraid of giving my opponent the extra drop on me. I think either course of action is defensible, but I definitely see your point.
Mannequin Blink is similar to Mannequin, but also runs Momentary Blink with sufficient white mana sources in order to further abuse comes-into-play abilities, and make the creatures reanimated with Makeshift Mannequin into real boys.
Blink works fine to re-use the abilities, or just evoke and get double-usage of the 187s, but not on the Manni-men. That's what I was referring to.
Uh Dude, Reejerey seems like a mistake, however, Picks 1 and 2 can be contested simply on personal preferences.
You talk about 11 mana drops an forget the tidal kraken. It's a decent beater as well. Your strategy about the one drops I initially used too, but the more I play Momir, the more I like the conservative strategy. Curving out from 3 to 8 on the play or 2 to 8 on the draw just seems too good. Theres so much fluff for one drops that unless you hit a bomb like llanowar elves or planar guide you are going to be dissapointed. In addition you forget to mention the card which completely wreck you namely leveler phage and denizen of the deep. Of these, denizen is the most potent, which seems odd because you don't auto loss from it, but it is practically an auto loss. Throw that on top of the fact that 8 is the dezired number and you begin to get an idea why playing around that guy is huge because the number of 8 drops isnt that substantial. That's why I try and stabalize at 8 and hit a removal creature like avatar of woe, gorgon, or try and hit an "insurance" creature like a board sweeper, namely bloodfire collossus. Once I acheive one of those cards, I move to 9 because it is safe, meaning there is no likelyhood of hitting denizen of the deep, and yes, on average the cards aren't as good at 9 but you can hit a bringer (R,U,G) or blazing archon. In general though, yes Momir is lots of fun!
First off, everyone else talks about cards that wheel or will make it back around. Calling them wraparounds imo needless complicates your terminology.
Hoping to wheel Douser in that first pack is pretty silly its a first pick quality card. If you look at that pack the most powerful card is Reejerey follow by in no real order, O Ring, Douser, Tarfire. Some one who thinks its good and/or rare will take the Gate and Aethersnipe is also not a card that should wheel. You shouldn't plan on getting any of those, you're lucky to see one come back (assuming table has good players). You can hope no one is going treefolk and Battlewand comes back or something like Lignify or the Changeling. Hoping to wheel a first pick quality card is a bit much. That list of cards that might wheel was made before I checked what did and Lingify and the Changeling did. Both are fine cards but from a solid pack they seemed most likely.
Going with the Reejerey p2 seems like a mistake. I would have taken them p1&2 but you're probably going to be cut off from Merfolk pack two. You passed of the best ones pack one and are passing another strong one pack two.
Plover Knights is a really bad pick because its the only white card in the pack. Kithkin are okay if no one else is drafting them but seeing one white card p1p3 is not a good sign of that.
Thank you walkerdog and runelinger for your comments.
I learned to not anticipate the better cards wrapping around just because I cut the color. here are two quotes from the article.
"So, I would like to stop and point out that you can't expect something to come back to you when it is one of the top 8 cards in the pack."
"Wraparound cards are never guranteed, especially if the rest of the cards in the pack aren't more appealing."
I hope my next draft shows some improvement and I can learn more advanced lessons.
I was talking to Basic Land about the decision and I can honestly say Plover Knights is absolutely a bad choice there. It's a poor choice at best.
Your reasoning is completely off at that point. Your first logic of cutting white assumes that you want to run white. However of the two archetypes that have some success with white (UW, RW), he can't really enter either of them as he lacks red, and his blue signals are further screwed up by the Faerie Harbinger. Whereas his first pick of Obilvion ring is debatable as to being the right pick or not, the very idea that plover knights was a fine pick is fundamentally flawed.
#1, it costs double white. Only in some extreme green mana fixing situations (like multiples of fertile grounds and many vivid lands) is fixing for a double splash even feasible. Therefore by chosing Plover knights you stake yourself into white, something you don't want to do pick 3 (especially after a strong first two picks). The argument for the fact White based archetypes would fail him at this point and the fact that oblivion ring is highly splashable while this isn't, thus he locks himself into white or loses out on a pick answers your #3 and #1. That said, in the abstract, Faerie Harbinger is still a better creature. Even without hsi ability, 2/2 Flying with Flash for 2U?! That's insane, and definitely a stronger pick than plover knights, even in the abstract.
Lessons have to be learned. Good luck Basic Land.
I thought the Plover knights were a fine pick, as 1, they cut white from that pack, 2, they're awesome, and 3, you were pretty sure you'd run at least a little white anyway.
Second, Pack 1, pick 1, you shouldn't expect to see the Douser Wheel, as it's arguably as good or better than the lord (the lord is the better pick of the two though), and Oblivion Ring would be my choice too in that pack. My only beef with your first 3 picks was that I would've taken the Plover Knights with pick 2 also I think, as passing ONLY the Harrier in white in your first 2 picks indicates to him there might not be much white, and you can still try to jump into Merrow with a white core.
I love how your avatar keeps changing ever week. Always keeps them fresh even when the content isn't. kidding kidding great draft analysis man keep them coming we need more draft articles bad.
I meant to elaborate more on Pack 1, Pick 3, Plover Knights was not the best decision. Faerie Harbinger is a much stronger choice, even if I did not go into a Faerie package, being able to EOT and have something of your desire to draw next turn is as close to a tutor as you can get in Lorwyn. If I had it to do over again the Harbinger would have been grabbed and would have supported my other Faeries more.
It may have also signaled and left me with a few more options with faeries or a greater abundance of them.