There are only 4 slugs (online)... what are we? Chopped liver? Or do the 2 paper slugs (Giant & Rocket-Powered Turbo) count, and put us in the next one? :)
Given the upcoming Theros block and the classical greco-roman feel of the art hints so far, we might well see harpies, satyrs or manticores show up, but probably not as a big tribe.
I haven't been able to play with Domri yet (just ordered them this week for the new Gruul deck I'm building in paper.) But I have watched some matches with him, and he puts a ton of pressure on control to deal with him quickly because his ultimate is tough to beat. He might be good out of the board in that capacity, if you can keep your creature total high post-board. He would give you that way to win even once your creatures were outclassed, like you were talking about with Affinity going to the Etched Champion plan if the initial rush fizzles out.
The only problem I see with that off the top of my head is that some of the Modern control decks have combo finishes or pseudo-combo finishes (like Gifts Ungiven) that can win out of nowhere, which would negate the pressure Domri naturally applies by ticking up towards the emblem every turn.
If you look at the recorded track in whatever software you are using there should be a slider that adjusts the volume of the output, if you are wondering specifically what you can do.
Im going with C+ with reservations on Dragonmaze. I mean it could be fun or it could be very unfun based on the remaining unknown cards. In addition while I love multicolored sets I feel like this block has not really contributed in a positive way to the overall goodness of multicolored cards. Again though I didn't like gtc at all until I played with the cards so this might change drastically post release.
I never played 4booster sealed before so no.
I am a little surprised you guys didn't get into the ruckus that the announced end of v3 has entailed. The forums have been abuzz lately.
This is very true. You play drafts because you enjoy drafting. If you actually want to make profit out of playing a card game, spend all your energies learning online poker instead. Unlike Magic, with enough practice and skill you can make a consistent living off it.
Magic is a game of skill, and I want to believe so badly that if I just play better than my opponent I will always come out on top.
But as you can see from the charts, you need to win more than 60-65% of your matches just to break even. With normal variance (mana screw, bad draws, etc) this is very hard to do. And if you don't always play perfectly (I certainly don't) then it's almost impossible to come out ahead.
It all comes down to those extra 2 tickets. It doesn't seem like much, but just like how the 0 pushes Roulette to just barely be in the casino's favor, those 2 tickets mean that at the end of the day, more often than not, the only winner is Wizards.
That said, my favorite format is still draft. I just have the mindset that I'm paying for an experience instead of expecting big winnings, and I want to keep the bleed of money as low as possible.
This is a good point. These calculations can also change if the price of a pack is different. This should be easy to account for in the formalism I present.
But also note that the value of the prizes are also decreased by a similar amount. This means that the relative value of tickets in comparison to packs is higher. This is another reason why the new 4 pack sealed is worse than the old 4 pack sealed.
Wow, thanks. This has caused me to reevaluate things and I think I'm actually satisfied with the current structure [as long as pack prices and rare values fall in a certain range, which they may often not but when they do I'll play].
So I guess I was wrong to use mtgotraders for pricing. *feels awkward badmouthing mtgotraders on a site that's in cahoots with them*
Words of caution: you can't totally trust supernovabots; they don't actually buy everything that has a listed sell price. I marked about twenty different cards of low value from RTR and GTC and tried four different official supernova bots and they only wanted to buy 2 ~.6 tix mythics. So really to make this work you need to find a bot whose buy prices are close to supernovas that actually buys your cards. Apparently such bots do exist, to my surprise and relief.
Much thanks. This was my favorite format and being able to play it and not feel completely shafted is going to make me very happy.
I think there may be one other issue with the EV. While you are correct in stating that the price in tix for entering an event went from 16 to 18, the price to enter with product is still 4 booster + 2 tix. This make the actual cost of joining a GTC 4-booster sealed about 14 tix (four GTC boosters @ 3.00 plus two tix).
I assume this is to get more boosters out of the system, hopefully making constructed players like me a little more likely to play 2-mans and 8-mans as the booster prices increase along with the supply shrinking.
Anyways, as far as I can tell, if you spend 30 seconds buying boosters from a bot you can enter a 4-booster sealed for the same prices as December - but with one additional pack added to the prize pool, actually increasing the EV over the old 4-booster events.
Domri Rade is a potential option though I'm not sure I want him in this deck as he doesn't really add to your clock. The key here is really to win fast and the type of incremental advantage that Domri gives you I think is more suited to slightly more midrange creature-based strategies in my opinion.
I could be wrong though as I haven't played with Domri yet. Generally I don't think I rate him as highly as others.
Thanks for your feedback. Indeed, I used the prices that supernova bots BUY at to get the values of 1.3 tickets per pack for Return to Ravnica (and 0.8 for Gatecrash). So I think this is pretty reasonable. You can see the list here
Is "Sarrakul" supposed to be Surrakar?
They do. I actually really enjoy the slug writeup I did.
...Hopefully you will not find it offensive.
There are only 4 slugs (online)... what are we? Chopped liver? Or do the 2 paper slugs (Giant & Rocket-Powered Turbo) count, and put us in the next one? :)
Thanks for letting me know. I'll keep a better eye on my c/p when I highlight the next suite of top four decks!
You're right.
I can't believe I got sphinges but missed mongooses.
Mongooses!
This was a great and interesting read. It also points out some tribes that could come up in Theros, I'm excited :D
Thanks for reading Kelvin.
Given the upcoming Theros block and the classical greco-roman feel of the art hints so far, we might well see harpies, satyrs or manticores show up, but probably not as a big tribe.
I haven't been able to play with Domri yet (just ordered them this week for the new Gruul deck I'm building in paper.) But I have watched some matches with him, and he puts a ton of pressure on control to deal with him quickly because his ultimate is tough to beat. He might be good out of the board in that capacity, if you can keep your creature total high post-board. He would give you that way to win even once your creatures were outclassed, like you were talking about with Affinity going to the Etched Champion plan if the initial rush fizzles out.
The only problem I see with that off the top of my head is that some of the Modern control decks have combo finishes or pseudo-combo finishes (like Gifts Ungiven) that can win out of nowhere, which would negate the pressure Domri naturally applies by ticking up towards the emblem every turn.
The Mikaeus deck is missing quite a few cards.
The end was somewhat telegraphed by the new version: Rest assured we'll raise the matter of the Spotlight and upcoming end this week.
If you look at the recorded track in whatever software you are using there should be a slider that adjusts the volume of the output, if you are wondering specifically what you can do.
Thanks! Sorry about that, I'll make sure and work on that for next time.
Im going with C+ with reservations on Dragonmaze. I mean it could be fun or it could be very unfun based on the remaining unknown cards. In addition while I love multicolored sets I feel like this block has not really contributed in a positive way to the overall goodness of multicolored cards. Again though I didn't like gtc at all until I played with the cards so this might change drastically post release.
I never played 4booster sealed before so no.
I am a little surprised you guys didn't get into the ruckus that the announced end of v3 has entailed. The forums have been abuzz lately.
Really enjoy the videos. Just one note, the audio is super low. I had real trouble hearing the commentary throughout.
Thanks for this, I always love seeing how people draft.
This is very true. You play drafts because you enjoy drafting. If you actually want to make profit out of playing a card game, spend all your energies learning online poker instead. Unlike Magic, with enough practice and skill you can make a consistent living off it.
I really like this analogy with gambling.
Magic is a game of skill, and I want to believe so badly that if I just play better than my opponent I will always come out on top.
But as you can see from the charts, you need to win more than 60-65% of your matches just to break even. With normal variance (mana screw, bad draws, etc) this is very hard to do. And if you don't always play perfectly (I certainly don't) then it's almost impossible to come out ahead.
It all comes down to those extra 2 tickets. It doesn't seem like much, but just like how the 0 pushes Roulette to just barely be in the casino's favor, those 2 tickets mean that at the end of the day, more often than not, the only winner is Wizards.
That said, my favorite format is still draft. I just have the mindset that I'm paying for an experience instead of expecting big winnings, and I want to keep the bleed of money as low as possible.
Useful article!
I will say that after bingeing on drafts one 3-day weekend, I've started adopting a "the house always wins" attitude towards them.
This is a good point. These calculations can also change if the price of a pack is different. This should be easy to account for in the formalism I present.
But also note that the value of the prizes are also decreased by a similar amount. This means that the relative value of tickets in comparison to packs is higher. This is another reason why the new 4 pack sealed is worse than the old 4 pack sealed.
Wow, thanks. This has caused me to reevaluate things and I think I'm actually satisfied with the current structure [as long as pack prices and rare values fall in a certain range, which they may often not but when they do I'll play].
So I guess I was wrong to use mtgotraders for pricing. *feels awkward badmouthing mtgotraders on a site that's in cahoots with them*
Words of caution: you can't totally trust supernovabots; they don't actually buy everything that has a listed sell price. I marked about twenty different cards of low value from RTR and GTC and tried four different official supernova bots and they only wanted to buy 2 ~.6 tix mythics. So really to make this work you need to find a bot whose buy prices are close to supernovas that actually buys your cards. Apparently such bots do exist, to my surprise and relief.
Much thanks. This was my favorite format and being able to play it and not feel completely shafted is going to make me very happy.
I think there may be one other issue with the EV. While you are correct in stating that the price in tix for entering an event went from 16 to 18, the price to enter with product is still 4 booster + 2 tix. This make the actual cost of joining a GTC 4-booster sealed about 14 tix (four GTC boosters @ 3.00 plus two tix).
I assume this is to get more boosters out of the system, hopefully making constructed players like me a little more likely to play 2-mans and 8-mans as the booster prices increase along with the supply shrinking.
Anyways, as far as I can tell, if you spend 30 seconds buying boosters from a bot you can enter a 4-booster sealed for the same prices as December - but with one additional pack added to the prize pool, actually increasing the EV over the old 4-booster events.
Domri Rade is a potential option though I'm not sure I want him in this deck as he doesn't really add to your clock. The key here is really to win fast and the type of incremental advantage that Domri gives you I think is more suited to slightly more midrange creature-based strategies in my opinion.
I could be wrong though as I haven't played with Domri yet. Generally I don't think I rate him as highly as others.
Thanks for your feedback. Indeed, I used the prices that supernova bots BUY at to get the values of 1.3 tickets per pack for Return to Ravnica (and 0.8 for Gatecrash). So I think this is pretty reasonable. You can see the list here
http://www.supernovabots.com/prices_0.txt
I also included the relative difference in how often rares and mythics appear on the print sheet. I didn't include foils in my calculation.