I just want to mention that we have now been given our own MTGO forum at No Goblins Allowed. They are a great replacement for the soon to be closed forums at the mothership. And the new forums would be even better if more people join in. So I hope to see you all there.
Let the prize pool carry over to next week. I am confident that I will win the next one too ;) even if more people decide to join! .... jinx? or Hubris?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm another tough choice. Paul's deck has some neat tricks, but I think I'm giving the edge to Cauchy this week! Cauchy, email me at cottonrhetoric at gmail dotcom to arrange a good time for the trade. I'm free most weekdays in the 4:30 to 9pm EST range.
Haven't listened yet but I can't believe you didn't pick Reveillark for either list. Such an awesome amount of power in one card.
+11 elementals more: Deepfire Elemental, Horde of Notions, Thicket Elemental, Kulrath Knight, Pride of the Clouds, Avenger of Zendikar, Incandescent Soulstoke, Flamekin Harbinger, Ashling TP, and Ashling TE,
and Soul Snuffers.
All Is Dust is broken - but I've complained about Control lacking a competitive edge on here so I am willing to withdraw my complaint. It's a huge advantage for any tribe which can masquerade as colorless, unfortunately pushing out other control decks, but it's not like those others were posting 4-0s either.
This (below) is a slightly edited version of my All Is Dust comments to Kuma - regarding Pure only - in which we were also talking about Red burn and aggro decks, which we kind of consider public enemy #1, but feel powerless to stop except by better deckbuilding.
"I, for one, would like to see All Is Dust go, as it is a massive easy-to-cast hate spell against all colored decks while colored decks can't afford to include much reciprocal hate against the artifact decks...All Is Dust takes counterspells, Wastelands, or maybe some well-timed discard, or combo to disrupt. All of these are usually bad against Red decks. All Is Dust also ignores indestructible, regeneration, hexproof, protection, etc., wipes out opposing Enchantments and Planeswalkers (totally ignoring the sacred color wheel), is completely one-sided, and can easily be cast on a Cloudpost engine on turn 4 (same as Wrath). This sweeper is in no way more specialized than Wrath."
As I said, in the interest of promoting Control (not Ramp), I take back my conclusion of AID purification, though I still stick to my analysis. Maybe it's the ramp spell (Candelabra?) that should be purified, not the control spell.
I'll probably write more later, but this was the first time that Unexpectedly Absent was played in Tribal Wars. It worked pretty well, especially in response to shuffle effects and I could see myself playing them more often (but not against Eldrazi haymakers!). My favorite card, however, was Dromoka's Command. It's really good against a variety of decks (but not Eldrazi!).
All is Dust: No. It's a sweeper, there's a near-identical replacement in Ugin, it costs 7 mana. It's a powerful, one-sided source of card advantage, but 7 mana investments really should be.
Cloudpost/Vesuva/Glimmerpost/Forgotten Temple/Expedition Map: No. Colourless ramp is a format staple all its own, and has powered out everything from Myr and Eldrazi this week to Golems, Constructs, Scarecrows, even Shapeshifters and Gargoyles. Very fragile to land destruction, if Bazaar had gotten his wastelands and armageddons active before I had my titans out in games 1 and 3 then we'd be purifying a human.
Candelabra of Tawnos: Keep an eye on it. Utility artifact that doesn't win the game on its own, but insanely good with the cloudpost engine.
Eldrazi Temple: Worth considering. Only helps this one tribe.
Emrakul: Plausible. A card which we already restricted to just its own tribe and with good reason in other formats. Still, the Eldrazi have only one set to work with, and of that set several subpar options. I'd say wait 'til we see what BFZ does for their viability, but if we do decide to remove a colorless eldrazi creature, this one tops the list.
The other creatures: I advise against. They can all be wrathed or exiled or bounced or countered.
I'd hold off until they register a 2nd win. Let the purification process decree that they are now purifiable, especially with the new ones entering the mix by the time the next pure event comes around. There will be more targets and more strategic options when that happens.
There's no way you ban Cranial Plating and Affinity is still a deck. Sure, you still keep Arcbound Ravager but Plating turns the draws without Ravager into actual draws instead of a pile of 1/1s. Affinity isn't a hard deck to be if you draw your hate cards. Pack your Shatterstorms and Creeping Corrosions and you'll be fine. Affinity is a solid Tier 1 deck, it's not dominating. There's no reason for it to be banned.
I don't think Gurmag Angler and Tasigur should be banned. Chapin went all in on Delve at PT Fate Reforged and while he was correct on the power level of those 2 creatures, he went winless after 3-0 in draft, so that should count for something. Are zombie fish and Tasigur any better than a turn 2 'Goyf? Are they completely more broken than that? They all die to removal, they can be taken out of hand via discard and they're bad against Rest in Peace style effects.
I do agree that Amulet should take a hit, but I don't know if you ban Amulet. Turn 2 Primeval Titan/Hive Mind is so difficult to deal with, especially when they have Pacts in hand to give them security. That deck has so many tutors that even if you deal with the first titan, the next 3 aren't far behind and they get ahead on mana and cards while doing so. Amulet is probably the card you ban since the most explosive starts in that deck begin with turn 1 Amulet.
I think people take the Turn 4 rule too strictly and ignore the key concept of consistency that is key. Honestly I'm not aware of any consistent Turn 2/3 kill decks in Modern, though I'll admit a lack of experience with Amulet Bloom. If you think Modern is stale or needs shaking up I don't think you are looking in the right places. It's not these alleged Turn 3 decks but the actual heavily played Top Tier decks that need targeting. I don't think the format is plagued with Turn 2/3 decks and so I see this as a strange place to focus your attention if you actually want to change the format.
Goryo's Vengeance is not nearly consistent enough to warrant a ban. Yes it can win on Turn 2 but I believe those wins are very rare. Also banning Vengeance in my opinion would definitely kill those decks. I can't see how you can make a competitive version of the deck without the instant 2-mana reanimator.
Amulet I concede I don't know enough about. It may warrant a ban but banning something that not a lot of people are playing isn't really going to shake up the format. It's likely just to send those players to more mainstream decks. That's not to say the deck isn't too good - just the lack of people playing means there isn't a ton of evidence.
Cranial Plating is an interesting choice. Though I think in the grand scheme of things Affinity should be spared the ban hammer. There aren't many viable creature-based aggro decks in the format and Affinity remains one of the Top Tier. Weakening Affinity will only strengthen the Control and Combo decks rather than promote diversity. I feel a similar logic applies to Infect. Also, both decks are pretty easy to interact with and hate out using the tools available in the format.
Banning the Delve cards is actually more interesting. They've certainly had a big impact on the format and banning one or two could be significant. Though I think the ultimate result would be a lot fewer decks running Black. Tasigur may one day see a ban but I don't think there's enough support for that at the moment.
Wizards may look to shake up the format before the Pro Tour but I think if they want to do that they want to ban Twin and maybe some other elements of the existing top decks. I feel most of the cards you chose nerf fringe decks, which will not promote diversity in the format as you suggest. Decks don't fail to thrive in the format because of these fringe Turn 2/3 decks but because they don't beat the Top Tier decks. I'd gladly play a deck that couldn't beat Goryo's Vengeance decks if I had 100% win percentage against Twin, Grixis Control and Jund.
Based on last week's contest I will keep it to one simple mechanic so that the judge will not miss anything?
So same idea as Telir but with a toolbox limited to one mechanic.
Fetch creatures with Signal, Natural Order, and Chord of Calling. Return the fetch card from the graveyard and repeat the process. At some point fetch a Craterhoof and finish the game. Use Krosan against graveyard hate and use Echoing Truth to stall opponent or more likely bounce your own creatures.
3 Joraga Treespeaker
4 Eternal Witness
4 Den protector
4 Phyrexian Metamorph
2 Anarchist
2 Archaemancer
4 Signal the Clans
1 Natural Order
3 Chord of Calling
3 Craterhoof Behemoth
3 Krosan Grip
1 Regrowth
2 Echoing Truth
Ban the turn 4 rule instead. There are way too many cards to watch for in order to prevent turn 3 wins. Here is a list off the top of my head:
Faith's Reward/Reshape/Lotus Bloom
Manamorphose/Pyromancer Ascension
Glistener Elf/Blighted Agent/Inkmoth Nexus
Summer Bloom (the real problem card in Amulet, by the way), Hive Mind
Goryo's Vengeance/Through The Breach
Death's Shadow
Nivmagus Elemental
Temur Battle Rage/Assault Strobe
Atarka's Command
Blistercoil Weird/Paradise Mantle
Waste Not
Each of these have interactions capable of winning before turn 4. Your article never defined "consistent." Wizards banned Birthing Pod because they realized that their design space for creatures would be very limited with it. In the same way, their design space is very cramped with the "turn 4 rule." It would be far better to do away with that dying concept, unban more cards, and have a format like Extended was in its latter days (when, of all things, one-drop Zoo reigned supreme).
Rites of Replication. Hands down the funniest way to win against broken nonsense you can't find another way to stop. (Reaper King? Sure I'll take 5 of those...oh and kill yours with one of the 25 triggers.), Capsize is not underpowered in mono blue...Whispers of the Muse is another buyback card that keeps giving if you have a very controlling position. It helps fuel Forbid for example which is also an amazing blue "nope!"
this was definitely a day zero article. Two days later I've learned a lot more about the new format. Null Rod is a clear level zero candidate for anyone not eager to play 4x Thirst, and early on we will see a lot of it.
The problem is Steel Sabotage, a card which wasn't around during Gifts, Thirst, or Tezz's heyday. Fair decks relying on Null Rod are asking to get blown out. Thirst is also inherently strong at negating the virtual card advantage Null Rod can generate, although against MUD in particular, it is underwhelming and overcosted.
Also, Flusterstorm is just such a good tool for resolving instant speed bombs. It also wasn't around back then.
One huge difference between Gifts and Thirst, is a mana with which to play Flusterstorm.
Steel Sabotage is also a fantastic way to build storm, mid-stack, for a Flusterstorm blowout.
Chalice of the void was good, but Null Rod is also a thing. It's much too soon to count out mishra and his toys.
I play oath now, and it isn't nature's claim I'm worried about, if anything in green is a threat it's Abrupt Decay, due to it being uncounterable.
I love this article , and I agree with most of the points you make. I think that the grixis thieves decks and other similar Time Vault decks will be very good going forward. It might be a good time to next llevel everyone with BUG Fish/Null Rod.
Though I regularly read this site (and have read several of your earlier articles) I somehow missed your article on the Legendary Prize packs. Thanks for pointing it out. Good read, and as you say, good to have an alternate take. If I'd seen it, I might not have written this. Good to see that others are interested in the topic.
And yeah, math works, and we both came to the conclusion that the same unusual thing is going on in the uncommons.
1. Never before have they released online a blind-contents "pack" that was not intended for drafting. Heck, even in paper they haven't done it since the 90s, I think. So we'll have to see whether they want to color balance. My intuition is that they shouldn't - by filling in color spots with less interesting cards, it'll make people less happy for little gain.
2. As I'm very interested in getting all the cards online, I am indeed making sure all the Conspiracy cards get online. But I think it's pretty reasonable. Not since Unhinged have we had a currently released, "in-print" booster set that has not been released on MTGO. And unlike Unhinged, these cards (minus the Conspiracies/Draft cards) can easily be programmed to be online. It's one thing to leave 800 old cards off indefinitely. It's quite another to leave half of an in-print set off MTGO indefinitely. Plus, value-wise A) they don't want the fiasco of MM2 again with low-value com/unc, because not every rare (even here) can be good and B) they would be replacing them with uncommons worth less than 50 cents each, so wouldn't you rather have these cards? They have a chance of being worth more than 50 cents each. You can't really do much worse. And if not here, where?
3. I think it's very reasonable and defensible to make sure the unc is maximized for value - we're still talking not a ton of value here, and it'll only decrease. Probably I'm too optimistic in the rare/mythic values being optimized, but I think both of our picks are largely fine there.
I think the key difference is "what's the fundamental approach to set building" that they'll take. They could take the color balance approach as you did, and as they usually do. That leads to some fine things (most of your set) and some less than ideal things (The 2-color rares are pretty abysmal in value, worse than most uncs).
But I do hope that they take this most unusual set and take a chance to experiment with the prize packs, and base it around something other than here-meaningless color, and make it a worthwhile value so this definitely succeeds.
(I do think that the prize distribution will be "one pack to winner of 8 man draft" plus QP/PP, etc. Perhaps that's influencing my value picks a bit. That is another fundamental that we don't know.)
I just want to mention that we have now been given our own MTGO forum at No Goblins Allowed. They are a great replacement for the soon to be closed forums at the mothership. And the new forums would be even better if more people join in. So I hope to see you all there.
Thanks for the win. I liked Paul's deck as well.
Let the prize pool carry over to next week. I am confident that I will win the next one too ;) even if more people decide to join! .... jinx? or Hubris?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm another tough choice. Paul's deck has some neat tricks, but I think I'm giving the edge to Cauchy this week! Cauchy, email me at cottonrhetoric at gmail dotcom to arrange a good time for the trade. I'm free most weekdays in the 4:30 to 9pm EST range.
I could have punctuated/listed that better, the 'it' refers to AiD rather than Ugin.
Haven't listened yet but I can't believe you didn't pick Reveillark for either list. Such an awesome amount of power in one card.
+11 elementals more: Deepfire Elemental, Horde of Notions, Thicket Elemental, Kulrath Knight, Pride of the Clouds, Avenger of Zendikar, Incandescent Soulstoke, Flamekin Harbinger, Ashling TP, and Ashling TE,
and Soul Snuffers.
Hmm apparently one click was all it took to duplicate a post on this site... :(
All Is Dust is broken - but I've complained about Control lacking a competitive edge on here so I am willing to withdraw my complaint. It's a huge advantage for any tribe which can masquerade as colorless, unfortunately pushing out other control decks, but it's not like those others were posting 4-0s either.
This (below) is a slightly edited version of my All Is Dust comments to Kuma - regarding Pure only - in which we were also talking about Red burn and aggro decks, which we kind of consider public enemy #1, but feel powerless to stop except by better deckbuilding.
"I, for one, would like to see All Is Dust go, as it is a massive easy-to-cast hate spell against all colored decks while colored decks can't afford to include much reciprocal hate against the artifact decks...All Is Dust takes counterspells, Wastelands, or maybe some well-timed discard, or combo to disrupt. All of these are usually bad against Red decks. All Is Dust also ignores indestructible, regeneration, hexproof, protection, etc., wipes out opposing Enchantments and Planeswalkers (totally ignoring the sacred color wheel), is completely one-sided, and can easily be cast on a Cloudpost engine on turn 4 (same as Wrath). This sweeper is in no way more specialized than Wrath."
As I said, in the interest of promoting Control (not Ramp), I take back my conclusion of AID purification, though I still stick to my analysis. Maybe it's the ramp spell (Candelabra?) that should be purified, not the control spell.
So the 2x click bug went away? I never noticed.
Emrakul is the bully.
Ugin costs 8 but your point is still valid.
{Deleted - Duplicate response}
{Deleted - Duplicate Response}
I'll probably write more later, but this was the first time that Unexpectedly Absent was played in Tribal Wars. It worked pretty well, especially in response to shuffle effects and I could see myself playing them more often (but not against Eldrazi haymakers!). My favorite card, however, was Dromoka's Command. It's really good against a variety of decks (but not Eldrazi!).
Purification thoughts:
All is Dust: No. It's a sweeper, there's a near-identical replacement in Ugin, it costs 7 mana. It's a powerful, one-sided source of card advantage, but 7 mana investments really should be.
Cloudpost/Vesuva/Glimmerpost/Forgotten Temple/Expedition Map: No. Colourless ramp is a format staple all its own, and has powered out everything from Myr and Eldrazi this week to Golems, Constructs, Scarecrows, even Shapeshifters and Gargoyles. Very fragile to land destruction, if Bazaar had gotten his wastelands and armageddons active before I had my titans out in games 1 and 3 then we'd be purifying a human.
Candelabra of Tawnos: Keep an eye on it. Utility artifact that doesn't win the game on its own, but insanely good with the cloudpost engine.
Eldrazi Temple: Worth considering. Only helps this one tribe.
Emrakul: Plausible. A card which we already restricted to just its own tribe and with good reason in other formats. Still, the Eldrazi have only one set to work with, and of that set several subpar options. I'd say wait 'til we see what BFZ does for their viability, but if we do decide to remove a colorless eldrazi creature, this one tops the list.
The other creatures: I advise against. They can all be wrathed or exiled or bounced or countered.
I'd hold off until they register a 2nd win. Let the purification process decree that they are now purifiable, especially with the new ones entering the mix by the time the next pure event comes around. There will be more targets and more strategic options when that happens.
There's no way you ban Cranial Plating and Affinity is still a deck. Sure, you still keep Arcbound Ravager but Plating turns the draws without Ravager into actual draws instead of a pile of 1/1s. Affinity isn't a hard deck to be if you draw your hate cards. Pack your Shatterstorms and Creeping Corrosions and you'll be fine. Affinity is a solid Tier 1 deck, it's not dominating. There's no reason for it to be banned.
I don't think Gurmag Angler and Tasigur should be banned. Chapin went all in on Delve at PT Fate Reforged and while he was correct on the power level of those 2 creatures, he went winless after 3-0 in draft, so that should count for something. Are zombie fish and Tasigur any better than a turn 2 'Goyf? Are they completely more broken than that? They all die to removal, they can be taken out of hand via discard and they're bad against Rest in Peace style effects.
I do agree that Amulet should take a hit, but I don't know if you ban Amulet. Turn 2 Primeval Titan/Hive Mind is so difficult to deal with, especially when they have Pacts in hand to give them security. That deck has so many tutors that even if you deal with the first titan, the next 3 aren't far behind and they get ahead on mana and cards while doing so. Amulet is probably the card you ban since the most explosive starts in that deck begin with turn 1 Amulet.
I think people take the Turn 4 rule too strictly and ignore the key concept of consistency that is key. Honestly I'm not aware of any consistent Turn 2/3 kill decks in Modern, though I'll admit a lack of experience with Amulet Bloom. If you think Modern is stale or needs shaking up I don't think you are looking in the right places. It's not these alleged Turn 3 decks but the actual heavily played Top Tier decks that need targeting. I don't think the format is plagued with Turn 2/3 decks and so I see this as a strange place to focus your attention if you actually want to change the format.
Goryo's Vengeance is not nearly consistent enough to warrant a ban. Yes it can win on Turn 2 but I believe those wins are very rare. Also banning Vengeance in my opinion would definitely kill those decks. I can't see how you can make a competitive version of the deck without the instant 2-mana reanimator.
Amulet I concede I don't know enough about. It may warrant a ban but banning something that not a lot of people are playing isn't really going to shake up the format. It's likely just to send those players to more mainstream decks. That's not to say the deck isn't too good - just the lack of people playing means there isn't a ton of evidence.
Cranial Plating is an interesting choice. Though I think in the grand scheme of things Affinity should be spared the ban hammer. There aren't many viable creature-based aggro decks in the format and Affinity remains one of the Top Tier. Weakening Affinity will only strengthen the Control and Combo decks rather than promote diversity. I feel a similar logic applies to Infect. Also, both decks are pretty easy to interact with and hate out using the tools available in the format.
Banning the Delve cards is actually more interesting. They've certainly had a big impact on the format and banning one or two could be significant. Though I think the ultimate result would be a lot fewer decks running Black. Tasigur may one day see a ban but I don't think there's enough support for that at the moment.
Wizards may look to shake up the format before the Pro Tour but I think if they want to do that they want to ban Twin and maybe some other elements of the existing top decks. I feel most of the cards you chose nerf fringe decks, which will not promote diversity in the format as you suggest. Decks don't fail to thrive in the format because of these fringe Turn 2/3 decks but because they don't beat the Top Tier decks. I'd gladly play a deck that couldn't beat Goryo's Vengeance decks if I had 100% win percentage against Twin, Grixis Control and Jund.
Based on last week's contest I will keep it to one simple mechanic so that the judge will not miss anything?
So same idea as Telir but with a toolbox limited to one mechanic.
Fetch creatures with Signal, Natural Order, and Chord of Calling. Return the fetch card from the graveyard and repeat the process. At some point fetch a Craterhoof and finish the game. Use Krosan against graveyard hate and use Echoing Truth to stall opponent or more likely bounce your own creatures.
3 Joraga Treespeaker
4 Eternal Witness
4 Den protector
4 Phyrexian Metamorph
2 Anarchist
2 Archaemancer
4 Signal the Clans
1 Natural Order
3 Chord of Calling
3 Craterhoof Behemoth
3 Krosan Grip
1 Regrowth
2 Echoing Truth
1 Gaea's Cradle
1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
4 Stomping Ground
4 Breeding Pool
4 Stem Vents
8 Forest
1 Wooded Foothills
1 Cascade Bluffs
Ban the turn 4 rule instead. There are way too many cards to watch for in order to prevent turn 3 wins. Here is a list off the top of my head:
Faith's Reward/Reshape/Lotus Bloom
Manamorphose/Pyromancer Ascension
Glistener Elf/Blighted Agent/Inkmoth Nexus
Summer Bloom (the real problem card in Amulet, by the way), Hive Mind
Goryo's Vengeance/Through The Breach
Death's Shadow
Nivmagus Elemental
Temur Battle Rage/Assault Strobe
Atarka's Command
Blistercoil Weird/Paradise Mantle
Waste Not
Each of these have interactions capable of winning before turn 4. Your article never defined "consistent." Wizards banned Birthing Pod because they realized that their design space for creatures would be very limited with it. In the same way, their design space is very cramped with the "turn 4 rule." It would be far better to do away with that dying concept, unban more cards, and have a format like Extended was in its latter days (when, of all things, one-drop Zoo reigned supreme).
I've never once referred to Modern as irrelevant, even though it is to me. Just sayin'.
Rites of Replication. Hands down the funniest way to win against broken nonsense you can't find another way to stop. (Reaper King? Sure I'll take 5 of those...oh and kill yours with one of the 25 triggers.), Capsize is not underpowered in mono blue...Whispers of the Muse is another buyback card that keeps giving if you have a very controlling position. It helps fuel Forbid for example which is also an amazing blue "nope!"
Irrelevant formats lol. That made me giggle.
2 Reveillark
1 Archaeomancer
1 Scrivener
4 Signal the Clans
2 Karmic Guide
1 Gravedigger
1 Anarchist
2 Eternal Witness
2 Izzet Chronarch
1 Barrin, Master Wizard
2 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills
4 Stormbind
1 Knollspine Invocation
1 Gamble
1 Blast of Genius
3 Kindle the Carnage
3 Living Death
1 Worldspine Wurm
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
1 Autochthon Wurm
1 Congregation at Dawn
1 Firemind's Foresight
1 Mystical Teachings
1 Worldly Tutor
1 Misty Rainforest
3 Tropical Island
2 Taiga
2 Savannah
2 Bayou
1 Reflecting Pool
3 Reflecting Pool
2 Vivid Grove
1 Vivid Creek
2 Vivid Crag
My take on the challenge.
Btw this time I liked the 1st list best. :D
this was definitely a day zero article. Two days later I've learned a lot more about the new format. Null Rod is a clear level zero candidate for anyone not eager to play 4x Thirst, and early on we will see a lot of it.
The problem is Steel Sabotage, a card which wasn't around during Gifts, Thirst, or Tezz's heyday. Fair decks relying on Null Rod are asking to get blown out. Thirst is also inherently strong at negating the virtual card advantage Null Rod can generate, although against MUD in particular, it is underwhelming and overcosted.
Also, Flusterstorm is just such a good tool for resolving instant speed bombs. It also wasn't around back then.
One huge difference between Gifts and Thirst, is a mana with which to play Flusterstorm.
Steel Sabotage is also a fantastic way to build storm, mid-stack, for a Flusterstorm blowout.
Chalice of the void was good, but Null Rod is also a thing. It's much too soon to count out mishra and his toys.
I play oath now, and it isn't nature's claim I'm worried about, if anything in green is a threat it's Abrupt Decay, due to it being uncounterable.
I love this article , and I agree with most of the points you make. I think that the grixis thieves decks and other similar Time Vault decks will be very good going forward. It might be a good time to next llevel everyone with BUG Fish/Null Rod.
Though I regularly read this site (and have read several of your earlier articles) I somehow missed your article on the Legendary Prize packs. Thanks for pointing it out. Good read, and as you say, good to have an alternate take. If I'd seen it, I might not have written this. Good to see that others are interested in the topic.
And yeah, math works, and we both came to the conclusion that the same unusual thing is going on in the uncommons.
1. Never before have they released online a blind-contents "pack" that was not intended for drafting. Heck, even in paper they haven't done it since the 90s, I think. So we'll have to see whether they want to color balance. My intuition is that they shouldn't - by filling in color spots with less interesting cards, it'll make people less happy for little gain.
2. As I'm very interested in getting all the cards online, I am indeed making sure all the Conspiracy cards get online. But I think it's pretty reasonable. Not since Unhinged have we had a currently released, "in-print" booster set that has not been released on MTGO. And unlike Unhinged, these cards (minus the Conspiracies/Draft cards) can easily be programmed to be online. It's one thing to leave 800 old cards off indefinitely. It's quite another to leave half of an in-print set off MTGO indefinitely. Plus, value-wise A) they don't want the fiasco of MM2 again with low-value com/unc, because not every rare (even here) can be good and B) they would be replacing them with uncommons worth less than 50 cents each, so wouldn't you rather have these cards? They have a chance of being worth more than 50 cents each. You can't really do much worse. And if not here, where?
3. I think it's very reasonable and defensible to make sure the unc is maximized for value - we're still talking not a ton of value here, and it'll only decrease. Probably I'm too optimistic in the rare/mythic values being optimized, but I think both of our picks are largely fine there.
I think the key difference is "what's the fundamental approach to set building" that they'll take. They could take the color balance approach as you did, and as they usually do. That leads to some fine things (most of your set) and some less than ideal things (The 2-color rares are pretty abysmal in value, worse than most uncs).
But I do hope that they take this most unusual set and take a chance to experiment with the prize packs, and base it around something other than here-meaningless color, and make it a worthwhile value so this definitely succeeds.
(I do think that the prize distribution will be "one pack to winner of 8 man draft" plus QP/PP, etc. Perhaps that's influencing my value picks a bit. That is another fundamental that we don't know.)