For the 5 days (or however long geocities still exists) here is a spread sheet of profit(in packs) per hour, with of course some assumptions (ie based only on win %, not taking into account increasing difficulty (hard to model :P), 25 minute draft, 45 minute rounds, and a 4 tickets = 1 pack, average value of cards opened = .38 packs)
(A 100% win chance isn't going to happen... most people are centered in the 40-60% range I believe, and your win% in swiss != your win% in an 84 unless you can control that somehow. It's just a handy guide.)
good article, but jeez - INFEST! play it! =p nice to see you look at the movies after and realize when you should have played infest at the right time. nice articles - nice to see how other people think with what hands they have considering that we don't get to see players hands on replays.
Re: M10: I will continue to look for those situations in all games. Sometimes there will be lots of opportunity, sometimes not very much. In ACR #1 I had 2x Unsummon, Resounding Roar, Might of Alara, and Gleam. In ACR #2 I had Qasali Pridemage, Apocalypse Hydra, Topan Ascetic, and Gleam. In ACR #3 I had Putrid Leech. Also, my opponents in any given deck may have M10-relevant creatures and spells even if I don't.
Again, I don't claim that my handful of matches represent statistically-relevant data, but it's a place to start. Three three-match walkthroughs in without an M10 incident at least says something about the notion that M10 will change combat frequently.
The absence of opportunity in a given pool says something interesting and worthwhile, too. No, there is nothing in my ACR #3 deck past the leech that will lead to much of a change (I could have been the guy to put light damage across multiple blockers in the setup for an Infest, though, that would have been neat). In a pre-M10 limited environment, where sac, pump, and bounce are all stronger, it's still easy to end up with deck that is highly unlikely to create a results-altering M10 scenario.
re: R1G1: that is an option on his part, but it carries some risk--I could be sitting on something like Might of Alara or Resounding Roar, where, if he commits to an attack, I can both pump out of thunder range *and* give him first strike, setting up a 2:1 for me that he avoids by burning pre-combat.
Also, if he swings into an at-the-ready Pestilent Kathari, I'm going to read him for burn and simply not pump, content to trade my kathari for one of his men. I really don't want to have to keep mana up for the kathari coming up anyway.
So burning after blocking risks a 2:1, and counts on me choosing to pump despite the telegraphed burn, and is only helpful if I'm left with an unused outlet for the pump mana. If you have a good read on your opponent, maybe that play is correct, but against a good player, you are taking some significant risks for small gains.
One other comment I wanted to make...You state that the rules change doesnt affect any of these games. In this deck how could it actually? Now if you had drafted Glutonous Slime or a pump spell then it could have easily been a different story.
I would like to see a deck with a number of combat tricks and sacrifice outlets and then see if that deck is affected by the rules changes rather than some comment about how "once again no effects from the rules changes were seen" with a deck that has 0% of generating the negative rules change effect.
Also, Id like to point out that your opponent could have made a different play R1G1 that I have a hard time doing properly. It seems like the proper play for him is to attack, let you block and activate the ability, then cast his Resounding Thunder. When you pass with 5 mana and all your colors with 5 cards in hand and a Pestillant Kalrithi on the table then its basically a guarantee that you have instant speed removal. Otherwise you would have attacked and played a ground critter.
Dunno if Im correct in that logic but it seems like the better play to let you block and try to activate the critters ability? That way he would have given you more of an opportunity to blunder.
Funny that you ask. Me and a coworker were looking at the draft and I was guessing what you would take. I guessed correctly on all but two picks: Taking the Rakeclaw in pack one and the Knight pack two. Changing those two picks leads me to mabye pass up the Crystallization in pack 3 but I may have been greedy and taken it anyway as a one-card splash.
If you take the Creeper in pack one over the Rakeclaw then you could take the Blue cards in pack two such as the pro-green guy and the 4/4 unearth guy. Probably didnt change the final deck all that much tho.
Honestly the draft didnt go all that badly. You have strong mana-fixers and good removal. Just cause you're playing some cards that you normally dont want to play, like the Devour guys and the white splash cards that arent really all that great, doesnt make a basically solid mana deck with good removal that much worse. Id love to run a deck with double Infest, Dark Temper, Fiery Fall, Bitumous Blast, etc. regardless of whether my critters basically suck or not.
I would have taken out the Knight for the Spore Burst tho...but you mentioned that already.
Thank you everyone. Very good point on the Factory Whatisfgh. I actually just dislike Bant in general as it seems like you're playing a more fair, and less tempo-oriented Thresh, but it's won some games and made some T8s (and won a few too) so I can't dislike it TOO much. I do like Belcher a lot for this Meta, and given what I ran into, Eddie probably would have either finalled or won in my position too.
Or, at the very least, it can be, particularly if you play it more optimally than I did. Infest won me round three single-handedly. The big Thunder-Thrash Elders were fun, but totally secondary to annihilating his board.
What did you think of the draft, Metalman? Any point at which you would have gone in a different direction, or any major pick differences given the direction I did go?
Black/Red is reasonable in this format because you can spend your early picks on top tier removal and still end up with decent, nice-to-recur guys like Highway Robber and Lightning Elemental to fill out your deck. Taking those guys early defeats the entire purpose of the archetype, though. Does that make sense?
Once you're in Black/Red, you should prioritize card advantage whenever possible. Obviously any deck is happy to get card advantage, but Black/Red needs it in particular because its creatures don't naturally trade up for better cards, force bad blocks, or discourage attacks. Wall of Fire does a great job of the latter. Your comment about it not fitting your deck is misinformed. It is exactly the kind of card you want in Black/Red. So is Phyrexian Vault, which you took but didn't even play.
Sigh.. I miss forums where I can edit posts... yeah on the clock since you can activate, pump untap swing... for some reason I though you would have to untap in the attack phase <.< sorry for comment spam.
I had already sneaked a peak at the replays from when the event fired but it's always nice to see you make vids, as yours are enjoyable ;)
In the game against elves are you using tez's untap abilty? I can't tell since I can't see the number and you're going too fast ;)
If you are, you should probably use it on factory to either reset your mana or increase your clock. (also you might have not gotten the UW dual land in that one game since you can't cast swords with your chalice for one out)
Your play analysis seems spot-on. I prefer esper or 5cc to Jund (maybe just my play style) so I would have gone for fatestitcher over thrinax as well. The orchard vs. drag down was surprsing, too.
Bant is great against Zoo which the meta is full of. I think they have more top 8's than elves. Bant isn't a auto win for elves. Its not great. I try not to zig with every top 8.
Canonist almost always doesn't matter. I can usually cheat belcher in with artifacts and RFG mana+ 1 spell. Teeg isn't a problem as long as i draw a tutor or a wish. Zoo is simply terrible against it. Lots of classic players know that i'm quite fond of zoo and play it often, but you really cant interact with belcher, or dredge, not to give away another deck i'm considering very strong in this meta.
If you aren't running blue or black you really really cant interact with belcher.
That being said, anything blue is almost an autoloss. Black is close to that bad. So if your willing to roll the dice on not playing against blue or black belcher is fantastic.
Also, belcher cant play pact, as we typically need 5-6 cards to go off. Pact is just another non mana producing non win card.
If i remember i'll post my list in the comments for the person that asked. It's similiar to the list that was posted already.
You're angry at people for choosing bad decks. But then you run this pile and screw up constantly. Nice.
why on earth would you play fear?
For the 5 days (or however long geocities still exists) here is a spread sheet of profit(in packs) per hour, with of course some assumptions (ie based only on win %, not taking into account increasing difficulty (hard to model :P), 25 minute draft, 45 minute rounds, and a 4 tickets = 1 pack, average value of cards opened = .38 packs)
http://www.geocities.com/whatisfgh34/Magicwinpercents2.html
(A 100% win chance isn't going to happen... most people are centered in the 40-60% range I believe, and your win% in swiss != your win% in an 84 unless you can control that somehow. It's just a handy guide.)
good article, but jeez - INFEST! play it! =p nice to see you look at the movies after and realize when you should have played infest at the right time. nice articles - nice to see how other people think with what hands they have considering that we don't get to see players hands on replays.
Re: M10: I will continue to look for those situations in all games. Sometimes there will be lots of opportunity, sometimes not very much. In ACR #1 I had 2x Unsummon, Resounding Roar, Might of Alara, and Gleam. In ACR #2 I had Qasali Pridemage, Apocalypse Hydra, Topan Ascetic, and Gleam. In ACR #3 I had Putrid Leech. Also, my opponents in any given deck may have M10-relevant creatures and spells even if I don't.
Again, I don't claim that my handful of matches represent statistically-relevant data, but it's a place to start. Three three-match walkthroughs in without an M10 incident at least says something about the notion that M10 will change combat frequently.
The absence of opportunity in a given pool says something interesting and worthwhile, too. No, there is nothing in my ACR #3 deck past the leech that will lead to much of a change (I could have been the guy to put light damage across multiple blockers in the setup for an Infest, though, that would have been neat). In a pre-M10 limited environment, where sac, pump, and bounce are all stronger, it's still easy to end up with deck that is highly unlikely to create a results-altering M10 scenario.
re: R1G1: that is an option on his part, but it carries some risk--I could be sitting on something like Might of Alara or Resounding Roar, where, if he commits to an attack, I can both pump out of thunder range *and* give him first strike, setting up a 2:1 for me that he avoids by burning pre-combat.
Also, if he swings into an at-the-ready Pestilent Kathari, I'm going to read him for burn and simply not pump, content to trade my kathari for one of his men. I really don't want to have to keep mana up for the kathari coming up anyway.
So burning after blocking risks a 2:1, and counts on me choosing to pump despite the telegraphed burn, and is only helpful if I'm left with an unused outlet for the pump mana. If you have a good read on your opponent, maybe that play is correct, but against a good player, you are taking some significant risks for small gains.
and just submitted it :)
One other comment I wanted to make...You state that the rules change doesnt affect any of these games. In this deck how could it actually? Now if you had drafted Glutonous Slime or a pump spell then it could have easily been a different story.
I would like to see a deck with a number of combat tricks and sacrifice outlets and then see if that deck is affected by the rules changes rather than some comment about how "once again no effects from the rules changes were seen" with a deck that has 0% of generating the negative rules change effect.
Also, Id like to point out that your opponent could have made a different play R1G1 that I have a hard time doing properly. It seems like the proper play for him is to attack, let you block and activate the ability, then cast his Resounding Thunder. When you pass with 5 mana and all your colors with 5 cards in hand and a Pestillant Kalrithi on the table then its basically a guarantee that you have instant speed removal. Otherwise you would have attacked and played a ground critter.
Dunno if Im correct in that logic but it seems like the better play to let you block and try to activate the critters ability? That way he would have given you more of an opportunity to blunder.
-M
Great article. I like it when you ask what's the best play. It makes me think about it and hopefully makes me a better player.
Funny that you ask. Me and a coworker were looking at the draft and I was guessing what you would take. I guessed correctly on all but two picks: Taking the Rakeclaw in pack one and the Knight pack two. Changing those two picks leads me to mabye pass up the Crystallization in pack 3 but I may have been greedy and taken it anyway as a one-card splash.
If you take the Creeper in pack one over the Rakeclaw then you could take the Blue cards in pack two such as the pro-green guy and the 4/4 unearth guy. Probably didnt change the final deck all that much tho.
Honestly the draft didnt go all that badly. You have strong mana-fixers and good removal. Just cause you're playing some cards that you normally dont want to play, like the Devour guys and the white splash cards that arent really all that great, doesnt make a basically solid mana deck with good removal that much worse. Id love to run a deck with double Infest, Dark Temper, Fiery Fall, Bitumous Blast, etc. regardless of whether my critters basically suck or not.
I would have taken out the Knight for the Spore Burst tho...but you mentioned that already.
Grats on the win.
-M
Thank you everyone. Very good point on the Factory Whatisfgh. I actually just dislike Bant in general as it seems like you're playing a more fair, and less tempo-oriented Thresh, but it's won some games and made some T8s (and won a few too) so I can't dislike it TOO much. I do like Belcher a lot for this Meta, and given what I ran into, Eddie probably would have either finalled or won in my position too.
Or, at the very least, it can be, particularly if you play it more optimally than I did. Infest won me round three single-handedly. The big Thunder-Thrash Elders were fun, but totally secondary to annihilating his board.
What did you think of the draft, Metalman? Any point at which you would have gone in a different direction, or any major pick differences given the direction I did go?
So...the moral of the story is that Infest is amazing in this format.
Black/Red is reasonable in this format because you can spend your early picks on top tier removal and still end up with decent, nice-to-recur guys like Highway Robber and Lightning Elemental to fill out your deck. Taking those guys early defeats the entire purpose of the archetype, though. Does that make sense?
Once you're in Black/Red, you should prioritize card advantage whenever possible. Obviously any deck is happy to get card advantage, but Black/Red needs it in particular because its creatures don't naturally trade up for better cards, force bad blocks, or discourage attacks. Wall of Fire does a great job of the latter. Your comment about it not fitting your deck is misinformed. It is exactly the kind of card you want in Black/Red. So is Phyrexian Vault, which you took but didn't even play.
Sigh.. I miss forums where I can edit posts... yeah on the clock since you can activate, pump untap swing... for some reason I though you would have to untap in the attack phase <.< sorry for comment spam.
awk.. nm on the clock.. but the mana ;) not that it really mattered I think.
I had already sneaked a peak at the replays from when the event fired but it's always nice to see you make vids, as yours are enjoyable ;)
In the game against elves are you using tez's untap abilty? I can't tell since I can't see the number and you're going too fast ;)
If you are, you should probably use it on factory to either reset your mana or increase your clock. (also you might have not gotten the UW dual land in that one game since you can't cast swords with your chalice for one out)
you know you could submit that article here. :)
These draft articles are far more interesting with the pause to think sections with full board positions displayed.
Bant isn't as good as you think against zoo. It isnt weak, but its a fight
gj walker. not only did you put control in the finals you put a 5cc planeswalker there too.
I loved the draft analysis and the play analysis. It inspired me to make my own, http://ben-hurt.blogspot.com/.
Your play analysis seems spot-on. I prefer esper or 5cc to Jund (maybe just my play style) so I would have gone for fatestitcher over thrinax as well. The orchard vs. drag down was surprsing, too.
I would have gone towards 5c Control route with your first picks. You had great fixers and mass reoval, both crucial in 5cc.
Also, Fatestitcher still works well with Infest, it forces your opponent to overcommit to the board and has unearth too!
Bant is great against Zoo which the meta is full of. I think they have more top 8's than elves. Bant isn't a auto win for elves. Its not great. I try not to zig with every top 8.
Your detailed play by play is terrific - highlighted, really, by your ability to recognize your (frequent, at least in this draft :-) ) mistakes.
Nice write up, and congratulations on th win.
awesome as usual walker.
Canonist almost always doesn't matter. I can usually cheat belcher in with artifacts and RFG mana+ 1 spell. Teeg isn't a problem as long as i draw a tutor or a wish. Zoo is simply terrible against it. Lots of classic players know that i'm quite fond of zoo and play it often, but you really cant interact with belcher, or dredge, not to give away another deck i'm considering very strong in this meta.
If you aren't running blue or black you really really cant interact with belcher.
That being said, anything blue is almost an autoloss. Black is close to that bad. So if your willing to roll the dice on not playing against blue or black belcher is fantastic.
Also, belcher cant play pact, as we typically need 5-6 cards to go off. Pact is just another non mana producing non win card.
If i remember i'll post my list in the comments for the person that asked. It's similiar to the list that was posted already.