I disagree with your disagreement. :) Even Figure of Destiny foils are worth slightly less than double the regular ones. The duals are much better value since there are 5 and and worst is worth 18+. The foils are worth 5 times.
How many 18+ tix cards are in Shadowmoor Block? Reflecting Pool is 16. Cascade Bluffs is 11. Glen Endra Archmage is 13. Only FoD at 34. There is 460+ cards in Shadowmoor Block only 280+ in MED2.
I draft MED2 regularly just for this reason. There is more chance of hitting a big money card. I have opened a foil Savannah it netted me a playset plus 1 extra which was sold to buy another draft set. A foil FoD doesn't get you all that. If you draft it enough you will hit the jackpot every once in awhile. Its just too bad as the article stated the rest of the set is crap.
That doesn't even take into consideration the future value. Which will hold value in the future? The duals or FoD? I seem to remember that Tarmo was nearing 50 tix when it was still Standard legal. Now, I guess as testament to just how good it is, it still hovers around 17 tix. The point is, what happens when Lor-Shad rotates out of Standard? I have a feeling the price of duals won't be affected. Unless Wizards does something foolish and reissue the set in the future.
I hope to draft a playset of each of the duals and as soon as I hit four of any I sell any extra I get. Between the 5th duals and prizes I have not needed to pay for a draftset of MED2 in awhile and I think my MED2 collection just topped 1200 cards and four packs in the binder.
But in fairness I mostly only play Block Limited and Constructed for the fun and challenge and draft MED2 for the collection so my priorities are slightly different than most. As a side note though, if you are looking to draft MED2 you can almost set your watch to it firing between 8 and 9PM EST. Its almost uncanny the way one usually fires within a few minutes of 830. I can usually sit down at 815 and be playing before 845 or at least that has been my experience.
I would not recommend Millstone. If you're going to play a milling strategy, then you need to be dedicated to it 100%. If you're not into Crumbling Ashes, then maybe you could try something like Terror or Raven's Crime.
When talking about "promoting to their rightful place", which means the rarity shift of Lorwyn's planeswalkers, we shouldn't forget to mention that Serra Angel will be an Uncommon in M10.
Sea drake could go up (greatly) in value and become a classic staple after Exodus is released. Sea stompy is a contender in legacy, which is fairly close to online classic (and it would fare better in vintage than a lot of other legacy decks), but right now it isn't workable online. Stronghold will give us another mox and exodus will give us another land that taps for 2, and then we can find out whether serendib and sea drake have a home in classic.
...Or the deck could flop and all the speculators who currently value it for "future potential" will dump theirs leading to a price drop.
The duals are just that important for Classic AND Legacy (when it shows up) that I can't imagine them not reprinting them. Plus there is a sort of "precedent" as the duals were reprinted some times in paper (unlike FoW). Also, lands typically got reprinted in core sets, so I really expect that something is done on that front.
On a slightly unrelated note, the new "risk averse" duals coming in M2010 may be interesting for control decks in eternal formats (probably not for aggro, though), but they just won't "obsolete" the duals, so it would only be a "budget" option at best (and at worse it is something like Fetches that needs the real duals to be good - e.g. if it is the Future Sight uw land, but now in a cycle for all 5 allied combinations or even all 10 somehow, it keys off basic land types of your other lands).
The duals are probably even more important to the health of the format than FoW (but that card isn't worth discussing with Worth having shot FoW reprinting down - there we have to wait for promos somehow).
I can observe a HUGE difference between price of other jackpot and ME2's jackpot, isnt it ? especially if you're looking at foil prices. So values could not be considered as equivalent imo.
Another important point : there are 6 Jackpot in ME2 instead in other set you mentionned, you could find only 2 or 3 jackpots maximum. So probabilities to get a jackpot seem to be much lower ... (in 5th dawn, you could run for EE but also for a V.Shackles at 19/32 or Eternal Witness 5/21 and that's all ...). So ME2 is the unique set in this case i think.
The aim of my comment is not to say that ME2 was great : i total agree with the idea that ME2 counts 6 good cards and too much other craps. This is an unbalanced set about that. However, in a mathematics approach as the article did, i think these elements must be included in the reasonning, and it could have an influence about the conclusion. :)
The real problem of ME2 is the price & playability of the rest of cards to me, as almost everybody i think.
I think the core sets have been named like this partly because they're gonna be legal most of the year they're named after. For example, Magic 2010 should be legal until about october-november 2010. So, we'll know just by looking at the set name that's it's legal or not right now.
Also, worth mentioning, is that TWO core sets will be legal for 3 months approx.: 2011 release in July and 2010 will fall in october.
It's not perfect though, I agree. We'll see the effects when it's released.
The 8 Player Swiss Sealed pays out lower prizes (as there are less players):
Points - Packs
9 9
6 5
3 2
One win gets you two packs, two wins gets you five and winning the whole thing nets you nine packs. That's why these are generally pretty good for newish players, a lot of players will be able to squeak out that one win needed to reduce the costs of the next event they'll play in. :)
I dont agree with the draft comment because that is true for every draft format you play. Hitting a dual while drafting is jackpot like hitting a tarmogoyf,figure of destiny or eng explosives. Or even Ajani Vengeant and Elspeth. Im sure that wizards discussed this topic within their boundaries and If they are aware of this its in their interest to make every format healthy right? Thats the reasoning behind bans or entering more of a specific set in MTGO. If they choose to get this prices boost up I believe they have a good business reason for them and of course a fairly good reason for us MTGO players because they know that we are the ones "paying their salaries." hope to get your thoughts on that.
Good Job
interesting analysis again & nice article, good job!
maybe i would just add some elements to your reasoning about MED2 packs value (i am also graduated in economy & econometrics ;) )
Your analyzis seems true if you exclude the draft process, i mean if you just cracked some packs.
If you are running draft, the value you can obtain from ME2 is different imo : it does not change value of cards itself, but if you are winning at least 1 round, your chance to earn much more are increased, especially if you drafted dual. With one dual, you earn 20 tix minimum; if it is a foil one, it is like a jackpot ! If you drafted a foil savanah, you immediatly win .... 120 tix for 1 card! for a foil sea, it is an awesome 230 tix jackpot ! I am not sure so incredible jackpots exist over all other available draft... And that must be included in the reasoning imho.
My own experience : I drafted a lot ME2 because i joined mtgo a bit earlier than its release, and i could say that it was a great opportunity to me to earn a lots of tix by drafting ME2 and selling duals. Sure, you however need to win round 1 at least and you need to be lucky a bit to drafter one of the 6 good cards of the sets ...
That being said, i have to agree with you about the pour value of the set, that could have been much better (as ME1 was)
It is miscealenous, but you could add brainstorm & counterspell, and to the good cards available, even if it was available before too.
Good article, I liked it. I play Bant a lot in Block and now I know how to play it in standard.
A question: Don't you think O-Ring can be useful in the format? In Block it is a lot; but don't know the meta of Standard well enough to judge the card, so therefore I'm asking.
While sideboarding against MBC, wouldn't it be better to keep as many slivers in the deck as possible vs. their removal and instead side out 3Thrill of the hunts + a single sliver/holy light?
I was particularly intrigued by the sarcastic suggestion to crack packs and sell the contents. Obviously the expected value for most boosters is a ticket or less. I think everyone knows that cracking packs is a foolish scratch ticket. You guys made that clear.
But then Erik mentioned that the crazy prices of release day on MTGO can throw the math off. Like he said, crack a pack, pull a (Progenitus), sell it, and two weeks later buy a playset with that same money. Or use that money to buy more packs and keep going. So you'll end up with junk rares and commons, but they'll be free or really cheap. Is this really feasible? I don't dare try it but I'm wondering if anyone's guessed at the math. Like "Assuming I can sell Progenitus for 12 tickets and Bolas for 20, the expected value of a Conflux pack is..."
Kind of related, I was thinking about how much higher dual lands have to go before MED2 hits the point where packs are just as good as dealers. We know that 10% of all boosters have a dual in them. And duals are worth an average of 24 tickets. So even if you buy boosters from WotC then $2.40 of the $4 expected value that you need is right there in your non-foil duals. Add in Imperial Seal, Recruiter (1 tix), StP (1 tix uncommon), Necro (8), and Helm (4), and... I haven't done the math. But I'm optimistic. If MED2 boosters ever go on sale for $3 I think I'd rather have 8 boosters than one Taiga.
Every good set comes out with a good B/U deck.
This is...
Subterfuge!
1x Lotus Petal
1x Manta Riders
2x Lab Rats
1x Rabid Rats
1x Tortured Existence
1x Contempt
2x Mana leak
1x Counterspell
3x Dark Ritual
3x Manakin
2x Diabolic Edict
2x Death Stroke
1x Dauthi Horror
2x Foul Imp
2x Torment
2x Brush with Death
2x Sift
3x Dream Prowler
2x Endless Scream
1x Tidal Surge
1x Mind Games
13x Swamp
10x Island
Use the Manakins and Dark Rituals to accelerate your mana, fuel the buyback costs of Brush with Death, Mind Games, and Lab Rats, and fuel the X cost of Endless Scream to boost the power of your unblockable Dream Prowler or shadow-powered Dauthi Horrors (which will also be used as defense against your opponents shadow creatures.)
Use Death Stroke, Diabolic Edict, Mana leak, and Counterspell, Contempt, and Torment to rid yourself of opponents threats before they deal serious damage to you.
The highlights of this deck are supposed to be Dream Prowler with Endless screams and "new" Buyback cards.
Well you get to choose the creature to destroy, so you should be able to avoid killing your own dudes most of the time... but if your opponent doesn't have any creatures then you may be forced to destroy someone on your team.
I disagree with your disagreement. :) Even Figure of Destiny foils are worth slightly less than double the regular ones. The duals are much better value since there are 5 and and worst is worth 18+. The foils are worth 5 times.
How many 18+ tix cards are in Shadowmoor Block? Reflecting Pool is 16. Cascade Bluffs is 11. Glen Endra Archmage is 13. Only FoD at 34. There is 460+ cards in Shadowmoor Block only 280+ in MED2.
I draft MED2 regularly just for this reason. There is more chance of hitting a big money card. I have opened a foil Savannah it netted me a playset plus 1 extra which was sold to buy another draft set. A foil FoD doesn't get you all that. If you draft it enough you will hit the jackpot every once in awhile. Its just too bad as the article stated the rest of the set is crap.
That doesn't even take into consideration the future value. Which will hold value in the future? The duals or FoD? I seem to remember that Tarmo was nearing 50 tix when it was still Standard legal. Now, I guess as testament to just how good it is, it still hovers around 17 tix. The point is, what happens when Lor-Shad rotates out of Standard? I have a feeling the price of duals won't be affected. Unless Wizards does something foolish and reissue the set in the future.
I hope to draft a playset of each of the duals and as soon as I hit four of any I sell any extra I get. Between the 5th duals and prizes I have not needed to pay for a draftset of MED2 in awhile and I think my MED2 collection just topped 1200 cards and four packs in the binder.
But in fairness I mostly only play Block Limited and Constructed for the fun and challenge and draft MED2 for the collection so my priorities are slightly different than most. As a side note though, if you are looking to draft MED2 you can almost set your watch to it firing between 8 and 9PM EST. Its almost uncanny the way one usually fires within a few minutes of 830. I can usually sit down at 815 and be playing before 845 or at least that has been my experience.
I would not recommend Millstone. If you're going to play a milling strategy, then you need to be dedicated to it 100%. If you're not into Crumbling Ashes, then maybe you could try something like Terror or Raven's Crime.
When talking about "promoting to their rightful place", which means the rarity shift of Lorwyn's planeswalkers, we shouldn't forget to mention that Serra Angel will be an Uncommon in M10.
Sea drake could go up (greatly) in value and become a classic staple after Exodus is released. Sea stompy is a contender in legacy, which is fairly close to online classic (and it would fare better in vintage than a lot of other legacy decks), but right now it isn't workable online. Stronghold will give us another mox and exodus will give us another land that taps for 2, and then we can find out whether serendib and sea drake have a home in classic.
...Or the deck could flop and all the speculators who currently value it for "future potential" will dump theirs leading to a price drop.
The duals are just that important for Classic AND Legacy (when it shows up) that I can't imagine them not reprinting them. Plus there is a sort of "precedent" as the duals were reprinted some times in paper (unlike FoW). Also, lands typically got reprinted in core sets, so I really expect that something is done on that front.
On a slightly unrelated note, the new "risk averse" duals coming in M2010 may be interesting for control decks in eternal formats (probably not for aggro, though), but they just won't "obsolete" the duals, so it would only be a "budget" option at best (and at worse it is something like Fetches that needs the real duals to be good - e.g. if it is the Future Sight uw land, but now in a cycle for all 5 allied combinations or even all 10 somehow, it keys off basic land types of your other lands).
The duals are probably even more important to the health of the format than FoW (but that card isn't worth discussing with Worth having shot FoW reprinting down - there we have to wait for promos somehow).
Thank you TheMiseDotCom for your comment.
First, let's take a look to prices refering to MTGO traders prices =
Card (regular price/foil price)
Figure (34/53)
Elspeth (17/28)
Ajani (17/28)
Tarmo (18/29)
EE (30/54)
Savannah (18/118)
Underground Sea (36/234)
Tundra (31/201)
Taiga (22/143)
Badlands (21/137)
Necro (8/52)
I can observe a HUGE difference between price of other jackpot and ME2's jackpot, isnt it ? especially if you're looking at foil prices. So values could not be considered as equivalent imo.
Another important point : there are 6 Jackpot in ME2 instead in other set you mentionned, you could find only 2 or 3 jackpots maximum. So probabilities to get a jackpot seem to be much lower ... (in 5th dawn, you could run for EE but also for a V.Shackles at 19/32 or Eternal Witness 5/21 and that's all ...). So ME2 is the unique set in this case i think.
The aim of my comment is not to say that ME2 was great : i total agree with the idea that ME2 counts 6 good cards and too much other craps. This is an unbalanced set about that. However, in a mathematics approach as the article did, i think these elements must be included in the reasonning, and it could have an influence about the conclusion. :)
The real problem of ME2 is the price & playability of the rest of cards to me, as almost everybody i think.
I think the core sets have been named like this partly because they're gonna be legal most of the year they're named after. For example, Magic 2010 should be legal until about october-november 2010. So, we'll know just by looking at the set name that's it's legal or not right now.
Also, worth mentioning, is that TWO core sets will be legal for 3 months approx.: 2011 release in July and 2010 will fall in october.
It's not perfect though, I agree. We'll see the effects when it's released.
Yeah the other prize payout seemed a little exessive to me for 8men. I hope they get a lot of players.
The 8 Player Swiss Sealed pays out lower prizes (as there are less players):
Points - Packs
9 9
6 5
3 2
One win gets you two packs, two wins gets you five and winning the whole thing nets you nine packs. That's why these are generally pretty good for newish players, a lot of players will be able to squeak out that one win needed to reduce the costs of the next event they'll play in. :)
I dont agree with the draft comment because that is true for every draft format you play. Hitting a dual while drafting is jackpot like hitting a tarmogoyf,figure of destiny or eng explosives. Or even Ajani Vengeant and Elspeth. Im sure that wizards discussed this topic within their boundaries and If they are aware of this its in their interest to make every format healthy right? Thats the reasoning behind bans or entering more of a specific set in MTGO. If they choose to get this prices boost up I believe they have a good business reason for them and of course a fairly good reason for us MTGO players because they know that we are the ones "paying their salaries." hope to get your thoughts on that.
Good Job
Those drafts seem kind of nice. The price payout for both 8men sealed and 16men is the same?
keep it up, I'm happy to finally see Fae losing it's dominance, even tho I still say I love those lil buggers :)
"Fling-a-long"
2 Craven Giant
1 Dauthi Horror
2 Dauthi Marauder
2 Fireslinger
1 Flowstone Giant
2 Flowstone Shambler
3 Furnace Shambler
1 Marsh Lurker
1 Mogg Bombers
2 Mogg Flunkies
1 Sandstone Warrior
2 Blood Frenzy
1 Crown of Flames
3 Fling
2 Flowstone Blade
2 Lightning Blast
2 Rolling Thunder
3 Seething Anger
2 Shock
2 Tortured Existence
16 Mountain
7 Swamp
Reuben Bresler
soccerrvb@surfbest.net
interesting analysis again & nice article, good job!
maybe i would just add some elements to your reasoning about MED2 packs value (i am also graduated in economy & econometrics ;) )
Your analyzis seems true if you exclude the draft process, i mean if you just cracked some packs.
If you are running draft, the value you can obtain from ME2 is different imo : it does not change value of cards itself, but if you are winning at least 1 round, your chance to earn much more are increased, especially if you drafted dual. With one dual, you earn 20 tix minimum; if it is a foil one, it is like a jackpot ! If you drafted a foil savanah, you immediatly win .... 120 tix for 1 card! for a foil sea, it is an awesome 230 tix jackpot ! I am not sure so incredible jackpots exist over all other available draft... And that must be included in the reasoning imho.
My own experience : I drafted a lot ME2 because i joined mtgo a bit earlier than its release, and i could say that it was a great opportunity to me to earn a lots of tix by drafting ME2 and selling duals. Sure, you however need to win round 1 at least and you need to be lucky a bit to drafter one of the 6 good cards of the sets ...
That being said, i have to agree with you about the pour value of the set, that could have been much better (as ME1 was)
It is miscealenous, but you could add brainstorm & counterspell, and to the good cards available, even if it was available before too.
Waiting for the next article, peace
Good article, I liked it. I play Bant a lot in Block and now I know how to play it in standard.
A question: Don't you think O-Ring can be useful in the format? In Block it is a lot; but don't know the meta of Standard well enough to judge the card, so therefore I'm asking.
While sideboarding against MBC, wouldn't it be better to keep as many slivers in the deck as possible vs. their removal and instead side out 3Thrill of the hunts + a single sliver/holy light?
Overally an awesome article though.
Again, awesome podcast.
I was particularly intrigued by the sarcastic suggestion to crack packs and sell the contents. Obviously the expected value for most boosters is a ticket or less. I think everyone knows that cracking packs is a foolish scratch ticket. You guys made that clear.
But then Erik mentioned that the crazy prices of release day on MTGO can throw the math off. Like he said, crack a pack, pull a (Progenitus), sell it, and two weeks later buy a playset with that same money. Or use that money to buy more packs and keep going. So you'll end up with junk rares and commons, but they'll be free or really cheap. Is this really feasible? I don't dare try it but I'm wondering if anyone's guessed at the math. Like "Assuming I can sell Progenitus for 12 tickets and Bolas for 20, the expected value of a Conflux pack is..."
Kind of related, I was thinking about how much higher dual lands have to go before MED2 hits the point where packs are just as good as dealers. We know that 10% of all boosters have a dual in them. And duals are worth an average of 24 tickets. So even if you buy boosters from WotC then $2.40 of the $4 expected value that you need is right there in your non-foil duals. Add in Imperial Seal, Recruiter (1 tix), StP (1 tix uncommon), Necro (8), and Helm (4), and... I haven't done the math. But I'm optimistic. If MED2 boosters ever go on sale for $3 I think I'd rather have 8 boosters than one Taiga.
Every good set comes out with a good B/U deck.
This is...
Subterfuge!
1x Lotus Petal
1x Manta Riders
2x Lab Rats
1x Rabid Rats
1x Tortured Existence
1x Contempt
2x Mana leak
1x Counterspell
3x Dark Ritual
3x Manakin
2x Diabolic Edict
2x Death Stroke
1x Dauthi Horror
2x Foul Imp
2x Torment
2x Brush with Death
2x Sift
3x Dream Prowler
2x Endless Scream
1x Tidal Surge
1x Mind Games
13x Swamp
10x Island
Use the Manakins and Dark Rituals to accelerate your mana, fuel the buyback costs of Brush with Death, Mind Games, and Lab Rats, and fuel the X cost of Endless Scream to boost the power of your unblockable Dream Prowler or shadow-powered Dauthi Horrors (which will also be used as defense against your opponents shadow creatures.)
Use Death Stroke, Diabolic Edict, Mana leak, and Counterspell, Contempt, and Torment to rid yourself of opponents threats before they deal serious damage to you.
The highlights of this deck are supposed to be Dream Prowler with Endless screams and "new" Buyback cards.
email: Eric.spafford@gmail.com
It just seems to dangerous for my taste, how about Millstone in its place?
MTGO Username: FlufflePuff
Email: samueljohnson_cc@hotmail.com
Deck Name: Sadistic Mob
Sadistic Mob
2 Dauthi Horror
2 Dauthi Marauderer
2 Mogg Fanatic
2 Lowland Giant
3 Flowstone Giant
2 Rabid Rats
2 Craven Giant
2 Mogg Bomber
2 Mogg Flunkies
2 Serpent Warrior
2 Death Stroke
2 Shock
2 Cannibalize
3 Fling
3 Mob Justice
2 Sadistic Glee
2 Rolling Thunder
12 Swamp
11 Mountain
Well you get to choose the creature to destroy, so you should be able to avoid killing your own dudes most of the time... but if your opponent doesn't have any creatures then you may be forced to destroy someone on your team.
Question wouldn't Soul Snuffers make Crumbling Ashes a double edged sword?
Deck Name:
Email: nickolai@zoomshare.com
Cards: 2 Spined Wurm
2 Skyshroud Troopers
2 Lowland Basilisk
2 Overgrowth
2 Crossbow Ambush
2 Provoke
3 Skyshroud Elf (Tempest)
2 Seeker of Skybreak (Tempest)
3 Rampant Growth (Tempest)
3 Soltari Trooper (Tempest)
1 Master Decoy (Tempest)
2 Youthful Knight
2 Skyshroud Falcon
2 Venerable Monk
2 Nomads en-Kor
2 Hero's Resolve (Tempest)
2 Disenchant (Tempset)
2 Bandage
2 Smite
10 Plains
10 Forest
MTGO Username is Alotrel, just in case the name I'm using right now isn't enough of a clue. ;)
The (T) refers to Tempest cards. Was using them to keep track and forgot to remove them after ensuring I had only 15. Sorry!