I did not have a problem with price, it was that I traded a few small cards with a bot (not MTGO Traders) for a fractional credit when I left the bot and returned to enter "sell" mode it said I had 0.00 credit and there is no way to contact anyone to dispute this.
The real blame for any of this goes to WOTC, for creating sets like ME and ME2 that are nearly unplayable in a limited format, chock full of terrible rares, and really only have any value in that they contain Force of Will, and the dualies. That is the main factor limiting the supply of these cards, the fact that not all that many of them have been opened due to the set they are in being absolute unplayable garbage.
What benefit does someone get for hoarding something, if it comes at great personal expense to them to do so? If you answer that there is some modicum of demand at that price, well then, that is the fair market value of the card to that segment that is willing to pay that "inflated" price, obviously the price is not inflated to them, or they would not pay it. Only a foolish person would pay more than they thought was a fair price for something, on the other hand, only a foolish person would sell something for less than what they thought was a fair price. Sometimes either side will settle to make a small concession to either purchase or sell the commodity in question.
MTGO, like the stock market has a bid and an ask price for just about every card, the "real" value lies in the margin between those 2 numbers, which is generally right at about a ticket. If nobody is buying something, the price drops, if a lot of people are buying something the price goes up. It is the most simple economic theory in the world, and it holds true for all markets and economies, MTGO included.
As for the SEC comment, they are well aware of manipulation in the markets being done by large firms that have money, that is where the term "market maker" comes from. It would relate to MTGO terms as a large syndicate of bots or buyers that had enough capital to largely influence the price of just about every single card, if they choose to target it.
1) How do you find out who the person is behind any particular bot? I feel that every bot should have contact information for the person responsible for it listed.
User: Goldbug
Responsible for setting prices on cardbot, mtgotradersbot, cardhoardersbot, abusbot, alphabot. Contact him if you have concerns with the way cards are priced. The websites merely follow his lead. You could say he is God of the mtgo economy.
"Usually it's not very effective as the market price will work itself out."
-Wrong. Any classic card can be effectively hoarded if there is even a modicum of demand.
A speculator is someone who buys cards based on the idea that they are under-valued or have potential for increase (for example, if it will be going out of print). IF the card rises in value, the speculator will sell off cards slowly, not affecting the overall value of the card.
A hoarder, on the other hand, is someone who drives the price of a card up by artificial means (corners the market on a card to dry up supply, spreads false information about the demand/future demand), then when the price jumps from lack of supply/increased perceived demand, dumps all their holdings of the cards before the prices can react to the flooding of the supply.
Wow, interesting week for the article. I didn't expect to see 30+ comments when I first read it.
Regarding the article, I find this topic highly interesting, but I am not one to scour message boards or prices (kinda the reason I like this series so much!), so I have absolutely no background info on the subject. From the graphs and the comments I pick up on the fact that people believe Natural Order is being hoarded, but the first part of the article is too vague to be anything other than a few paragraphs on the difference between hoarding and speculating. While I enjoy your take on its potential effect on MTGO, I really had no idea why the topic was even being discussed. I think it would make the article stronger if you gave some basic background, as if you were talking to a complete neophyte on the subject, which is what I am. The hoarding problem is much more interesting in a non-vacuum. Your topics are always great, so keep that up.
Also, is there some sort of known offender for Vampiric Tutor? These sorts of things are fascinating and would be much more so if described as if the reader has complete background-ignorance.
Loved Bubba's math post. Could we get numbers from those calculations?
PS - Natural Order is one of my all time favorite cards. Glad I got 4x when the set came out, but not glad to see it and Force, Dreadnought, etc, go way way up if it's only due to a bunch of bastards hoarding. I love to see higher prices in general for cards, but only if that's because the demand is so high.
I really wish I could but due to the way the buybot works and the agreement I have with the creator of it I'm unable to at the moment. I know it stinks but you can also pm me if you have a hot card you think we might need and a lot of times I'll pay more than the bot for it if our site is low on it.
It isn't the best list, but the archetype packs a punch and might forgive the wrong card choices. If you plan on running it in the Premier Event it will need some refining though. As I don't expect that this list is consistent enough to keep going there.
First at all congratulations for your articule. Amazing. Always amazing.
And second:
Can you post an affinity list(with SB please) with the new "tech" Rush of Knowledge and Quicksilver behemoth?
I test it but i dont fell good vibrations...
Thank You a lot
1) How do you find out who the person is behind any particular bot? I feel that every bot should have contact information for the person responsible for it listed.
2) (This is for Heath, specifically) Is there any way to have fractional ticket credits automatically transferred between the buybot and the selling bots? There are lots of people like me (new to MTGO with small amounts of cards) who would like to only trade a card or two in order to be able to get a card or two to complete a deck idea, without having to sell off more cards so that they have more than a ticket sold, leaving fraction credits on both the buybot and selling bot.
Two things have to happen for someone to be successful at hoarding: First, they have to buy large quantities of a card at low prices; and second, they have to be able to sell the hoarded card quickly at a high price.
The bots actually make a profit selling cards, so the real solution to the problem of hoarding is actually fairly simple: limit the bots ability to buy multiple copies of cards within a specified timeframe. After all, no human is going to buy 50 copies of Natural Order for $12 a pop in one sitting, or even over the course of a day. By limiting the buy capabilities of the bots to 4x (or even 2x) per transaction and 10x per day (for the bot/bot chain), you remove the one thing that makes hoarding successful - the ability to sell quickly at inflated prices. This allows the bot(chain) owner time to alter their prices accordingly to the supply/demand.
The other main difference from a human interaction is the ability to remember customers (faces, if not names). If a person goes into a card shop with 50 copies of an in-demand rare card, the card shop owner is going to be suspicious (at the very least) of dealing with that person and remember them whenever they try to do business in the future. With MTGO and the ability to have multiple accounts, having a "watch list"/banning proves pretty useless, as the offender can always make new accounts with very little loss to their profit.
Why exactly are we calling it hoarding rather than monopolizing? Hoarding usually is done more to protect oneself from a volatile market rather than manipulate the price. Monopolizing ("cornering the market"), on the other hand, is often done with the explicit purpose of price manipulation.
Sorry Hammy, but you've got the Pack EV wrong when Mystics are included. You added the value of a Mythic Rare, but neglected to subtract the value of the rare it is replacing. Also, since you are doing three-pack bundles, you forgot to multiply the mythic by 3. And of course there is one fewer common because land is in the pack. Correct EV for Shards should be:
M: average value of regular mythic rare
R: average value of regular rare
U: average value of regular uncommon
C: average value of regular common
L: average value of regular basic land
PM: average value of premium mythic rare
PR: average value of premium rare
PU: average value of premium uncommon
PC: average value of premium common
PL: average value of premium basic land
PRatio: Frequency of premium card appearance (size of a booster times the replacement rate) [the replacement rate is the ratio given on the packaging/mouse over]
nMinPack: number of regular mythic rares in a booster (1/8)
nRinPack: number of regular rares in a booster (7/8)
nUinPack: number of regular uncommons in a booster (3)
nCinPack: number of regular commons in a booster (10 or 11)
nLinPack: number of regular basic land in a booster (1 or 0)
nMinSet: number of mythic rares in the set
nRinSet: number of regular rares in the set
nUinSet: number of regular uncommons in the set
nCinSet: number of regular commons in the set
nLinSet: number of regular basic land in the set
"cornering the market"
Definition
The illegal practice of attempting to purchase a sufficient amount of a commodity or security to manipulate its price.
"security"
An investment instrument, other than an insurance policy or fixed annuity, issued by a corporation, government, or other organization which offers evidence of debt or equity. The official definition, from the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, is: "Any note, stock, treasury stock, bond, debenture, .... etc"
So, if you're witnessing:
"... institutions (groups of people) try to fix prices of a commodity on a daily basis. Sometimes it works, but it is only in the short term"
Then you probably aught to report them to the SEC.
There's a lot of difference between MTGO's cards and the stock market, which I imagine you understand as it's your day job. In fact, trying to compare the two, and the impacts of hoarding in each one is beyond futile. Attempting to do so merely clouds the issues. The two have different models, different requirements, different needs and different uses.
Price manipulation of casual cards is not a huge deal as you mentioned since there are replacements. I don't need natural order for any deck. Some would like Natural order, but it's not a requirement to play Classic.
But what about something like Force of Will. For many decks, it's a requirement. For many decks, if you don't have it you're playing a suboptimal list.
Your solution for fixing that? "Don't buy it". Yep, that can work. It can also keep players from joining the format altogether. Not so great if you happen to enjoy the format in question.
One card being manipulated is not a huge problem. Vamp tutors are in that category already and Classic survives.
Multiple cards being manipulated IS a problem, as it begins to choke off the amount of new players joining the format.
I disagree with some of the stuff ppl are posting. I can't imagine it is easy to avoid dead air in the podcast and I thought the intro and outline were awesome.
One thing I'd like to see along with the outline is posted time stamps, so that I can zip through to the points that I am interested in. Could this be done next time?
Also, I appreciate your guys' recognition of my contributions here and at pdcmagic - glad people are finding my information useful. :-)
One final note, when running these podcasts as the 'interviewer' or 'host', I think it would flow better to just lay things out, rather than asking for permission from your participants first. Instead of "can you guys answer some questions from the community?", work that out beforehand, then just go right into the content rather than establishing whether you're going to ask them during the 'cast. :-)
First off, I am not Nolight, Noknife is an indie rock band from San Diego that I am quite fond of, that guy is running some sort of MTGO business, I make my money in the stock market, day trading, MTGO is a game I play to pass the time during the day, not my source of income. I see people attempt to hoard stuff constantly, I see institutions (groups of people) try to fix prices of a commodity on a daily basis. Sometimes it works, but it is only in the short term. Ultimately you may not be able to find a certain card at a certain price for a short amount of time, but there is no long term benefit to hoarding something, unless you simply want to make the item unavailable to the general public for some unknown reason, and at great personal expense to yourself, which doesn't make much sense economically. Its a short term problem. Yes, the price of natural order is clearly manipulated, according to your chart. You know how you fight that? Don't buy it at that price. Eventually the price has to come down to its market value, or the person holds onto the natural orders that nobody is buying at their own personal expense. This is how every market in the world works. Long term you pay fair market value for everything. If you choose to overpay for something, you do so willingly. If you would like to explain to me anything else about market economics, I'm all ears.
I can see the price of Force of Will going up to at least to 120 a single in the near future if WoTC don't do anything, and also the same is going to happen ,maybe not that bad, to other cards like Phyrexian Dreadnouhgt, Grindstone, Lion's Eye Diamond and Daze (until it get reprinted on Nemesis). The Phyrexian Dreadnouhgt isn't as important as FoW is to the classic formats but it has been rising in price since 2 months ago from 18 to 32 for a single and i haven't seen any single copy of it in stock on MTGOTRADERS for a while. Assuming it has been played more but in the last 7 Classic Events it has appeared only in four different players decks (Prolepsis9-3 Times, gimlicolby-3, tallandskinnyman-1 and mrgando-1).
haha, loved the article. great idea and a fresh type of thing to read on this site. can't wait to see the next one.
I did not have a problem with price, it was that I traded a few small cards with a bot (not MTGO Traders) for a fractional credit when I left the bot and returned to enter "sell" mode it said I had 0.00 credit and there is no way to contact anyone to dispute this.
Great job bro, like always . Excelent article with all the meta and some videos , great job . Keep goin ur the best !
The real blame for any of this goes to WOTC, for creating sets like ME and ME2 that are nearly unplayable in a limited format, chock full of terrible rares, and really only have any value in that they contain Force of Will, and the dualies. That is the main factor limiting the supply of these cards, the fact that not all that many of them have been opened due to the set they are in being absolute unplayable garbage.
What benefit does someone get for hoarding something, if it comes at great personal expense to them to do so? If you answer that there is some modicum of demand at that price, well then, that is the fair market value of the card to that segment that is willing to pay that "inflated" price, obviously the price is not inflated to them, or they would not pay it. Only a foolish person would pay more than they thought was a fair price for something, on the other hand, only a foolish person would sell something for less than what they thought was a fair price. Sometimes either side will settle to make a small concession to either purchase or sell the commodity in question.
MTGO, like the stock market has a bid and an ask price for just about every card, the "real" value lies in the margin between those 2 numbers, which is generally right at about a ticket. If nobody is buying something, the price drops, if a lot of people are buying something the price goes up. It is the most simple economic theory in the world, and it holds true for all markets and economies, MTGO included.
As for the SEC comment, they are well aware of manipulation in the markets being done by large firms that have money, that is where the term "market maker" comes from. It would relate to MTGO terms as a large syndicate of bots or buyers that had enough capital to largely influence the price of just about every single card, if they choose to target it.
Noknife
1) How do you find out who the person is behind any particular bot? I feel that every bot should have contact information for the person responsible for it listed.
User: Goldbug
Responsible for setting prices on cardbot, mtgotradersbot, cardhoardersbot, abusbot, alphabot. Contact him if you have concerns with the way cards are priced. The websites merely follow his lead. You could say he is God of the mtgo economy.
"Usually it's not very effective as the market price will work itself out."
-Wrong. Any classic card can be effectively hoarded if there is even a modicum of demand.
Next on the hoarding list, Venser. Getcha some.
I think the difference is intent.
A speculator is someone who buys cards based on the idea that they are under-valued or have potential for increase (for example, if it will be going out of print). IF the card rises in value, the speculator will sell off cards slowly, not affecting the overall value of the card.
A hoarder, on the other hand, is someone who drives the price of a card up by artificial means (corners the market on a card to dry up supply, spreads false information about the demand/future demand), then when the price jumps from lack of supply/increased perceived demand, dumps all their holdings of the cards before the prices can react to the flooding of the supply.
I tend to like the older art better, but that's the beauty of art: nothing is definitive unless you make it that way. haha.
I was planning to do Alara next, but that would be down the line. Plus, I don't want to speak for all women!
Wow, interesting week for the article. I didn't expect to see 30+ comments when I first read it.
Regarding the article, I find this topic highly interesting, but I am not one to scour message boards or prices (kinda the reason I like this series so much!), so I have absolutely no background info on the subject. From the graphs and the comments I pick up on the fact that people believe Natural Order is being hoarded, but the first part of the article is too vague to be anything other than a few paragraphs on the difference between hoarding and speculating. While I enjoy your take on its potential effect on MTGO, I really had no idea why the topic was even being discussed. I think it would make the article stronger if you gave some basic background, as if you were talking to a complete neophyte on the subject, which is what I am. The hoarding problem is much more interesting in a non-vacuum. Your topics are always great, so keep that up.
Also, is there some sort of known offender for Vampiric Tutor? These sorts of things are fascinating and would be much more so if described as if the reader has complete background-ignorance.
Loved Bubba's math post. Could we get numbers from those calculations?
PS - Natural Order is one of my all time favorite cards. Glad I got 4x when the set came out, but not glad to see it and Force, Dreadnought, etc, go way way up if it's only due to a bunch of bastards hoarding. I love to see higher prices in general for cards, but only if that's because the demand is so high.
well like the subject says, heath and the whole mtgotraders peepz are cool as hell. keep up the good work guys
I haven't perfected the list yet, but I've had some small success in the queues with this:
Creatures (23):
4x Disciple of the Vault
3x Thermal Navigator
4x Frogmite
4x Somber Hoverguard
4x Myr Enforcer
4x Quicksilver Behemoth
Spells (21):
4x Lotus Petal
4x Chromatic Star
3x Pyrite Spellbomb
4x Springleaf Drum
2x Rush of Knowledge
4x Thoughtcast
Lands (16):
4x Ancient Den
4x Seat of the Synod
4x Vault of Whispers
4x Great Furnace
Sideboard:
3x Duress
3x Gorilla Shaman
3x Krark-Clan Shaman
3x Holy Light
3x Reaping the Graves
It isn't the best list, but the archetype packs a punch and might forgive the wrong card choices. If you plan on running it in the Premier Event it will need some refining though. As I don't expect that this list is consistent enough to keep going there.
First at all congratulations for your articule. Amazing. Always amazing.
And second:
Can you post an affinity list(with SB please) with the new "tech" Rush of Knowledge and Quicksilver behemoth?
I test it but i dont fell good vibrations...
Thank You a lot
I have two other comments about the bots.
1) How do you find out who the person is behind any particular bot? I feel that every bot should have contact information for the person responsible for it listed.
2) (This is for Heath, specifically) Is there any way to have fractional ticket credits automatically transferred between the buybot and the selling bots? There are lots of people like me (new to MTGO with small amounts of cards) who would like to only trade a card or two in order to be able to get a card or two to complete a deck idea, without having to sell off more cards so that they have more than a ticket sold, leaving fraction credits on both the buybot and selling bot.
Two things have to happen for someone to be successful at hoarding: First, they have to buy large quantities of a card at low prices; and second, they have to be able to sell the hoarded card quickly at a high price.
The bots actually make a profit selling cards, so the real solution to the problem of hoarding is actually fairly simple: limit the bots ability to buy multiple copies of cards within a specified timeframe. After all, no human is going to buy 50 copies of Natural Order for $12 a pop in one sitting, or even over the course of a day. By limiting the buy capabilities of the bots to 4x (or even 2x) per transaction and 10x per day (for the bot/bot chain), you remove the one thing that makes hoarding successful - the ability to sell quickly at inflated prices. This allows the bot(chain) owner time to alter their prices accordingly to the supply/demand.
The other main difference from a human interaction is the ability to remember customers (faces, if not names). If a person goes into a card shop with 50 copies of an in-demand rare card, the card shop owner is going to be suspicious (at the very least) of dealing with that person and remember them whenever they try to do business in the future. With MTGO and the ability to have multiple accounts, having a "watch list"/banning proves pretty useless, as the offender can always make new accounts with very little loss to their profit.
Why exactly are we calling it hoarding rather than monopolizing? Hoarding usually is done more to protect oneself from a volatile market rather than manipulate the price. Monopolizing ("cornering the market"), on the other hand, is often done with the explicit purpose of price manipulation.
Sorry Hammy, but you've got the Pack EV wrong when Mystics are included. You added the value of a Mythic Rare, but neglected to subtract the value of the rare it is replacing. Also, since you are doing three-pack bundles, you forgot to multiply the mythic by 3. And of course there is one fewer common because land is in the pack. Correct EV for Shards should be:
M*(1/8)*(3)+R*(7/8)*(3)+U*(3)*(3)+C*(10)*(3)+L*(3)
Of course, then you need to consider foils:
M*(1/8)*(3) + R*(7/8)*(3) + U*(3)*(3) + C*(10-15/56)*(3) + L*(3) + PM*(15/56)*(3)*[(1/8)/15] + PR*(15/56)*(3)*[(7/8)/(53)] + PU*(3)*(15/56)*[(3)/(60)] + PC*(3)*(15/56)*[(10)/(101)] + PL*(3)*(15/56)*[(1)/(20)]
more generally, the EV of a *single* booster of any set is:
nMinPack*M + nRinPack*R + nUinPack*U + (nCinPack-PRatio)C + nLinPack*L + PRatio*[PM/(8*nMinSet) + PR*7/(8*nRinSet) + PU*3/nUinSet + PC*nCinPack/nCinSet + PL*nLinPack/nLinSet]
where
M: average value of regular mythic rare
R: average value of regular rare
U: average value of regular uncommon
C: average value of regular common
L: average value of regular basic land
PM: average value of premium mythic rare
PR: average value of premium rare
PU: average value of premium uncommon
PC: average value of premium common
PL: average value of premium basic land
PRatio: Frequency of premium card appearance (size of a booster times the replacement rate) [the replacement rate is the ratio given on the packaging/mouse over]
nMinPack: number of regular mythic rares in a booster (1/8)
nRinPack: number of regular rares in a booster (7/8)
nUinPack: number of regular uncommons in a booster (3)
nCinPack: number of regular commons in a booster (10 or 11)
nLinPack: number of regular basic land in a booster (1 or 0)
nMinSet: number of mythic rares in the set
nRinSet: number of regular rares in the set
nUinSet: number of regular uncommons in the set
nCinSet: number of regular commons in the set
nLinSet: number of regular basic land in the set
Keep it up, Ham!
Also, attempting to corner a stock or commodity in the stock market is illegal....
http://www.investorwords.com/1128/cornering_the_market.html
"cornering the market"
Definition
The illegal practice of attempting to purchase a sufficient amount of a commodity or security to manipulate its price.
"security"
An investment instrument, other than an insurance policy or fixed annuity, issued by a corporation, government, or other organization which offers evidence of debt or equity. The official definition, from the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, is: "Any note, stock, treasury stock, bond, debenture, .... etc"
So, if you're witnessing:
"... institutions (groups of people) try to fix prices of a commodity on a daily basis. Sometimes it works, but it is only in the short term"
Then you probably aught to report them to the SEC.
There's a lot of difference between MTGO's cards and the stock market, which I imagine you understand as it's your day job. In fact, trying to compare the two, and the impacts of hoarding in each one is beyond futile. Attempting to do so merely clouds the issues. The two have different models, different requirements, different needs and different uses.
Price manipulation of casual cards is not a huge deal as you mentioned since there are replacements. I don't need natural order for any deck. Some would like Natural order, but it's not a requirement to play Classic.
But what about something like Force of Will. For many decks, it's a requirement. For many decks, if you don't have it you're playing a suboptimal list.
Your solution for fixing that? "Don't buy it". Yep, that can work. It can also keep players from joining the format altogether. Not so great if you happen to enjoy the format in question.
One card being manipulated is not a huge problem. Vamp tutors are in that category already and Classic survives.
Multiple cards being manipulated IS a problem, as it begins to choke off the amount of new players joining the format.
Nice article about a nice format. Keep them coming!
Cool podcast. Pretty long, but some good info.
I disagree with some of the stuff ppl are posting. I can't imagine it is easy to avoid dead air in the podcast and I thought the intro and outline were awesome.
One thing I'd like to see along with the outline is posted time stamps, so that I can zip through to the points that I am interested in. Could this be done next time?
Also, I appreciate your guys' recognition of my contributions here and at pdcmagic - glad people are finding my information useful. :-)
One final note, when running these podcasts as the 'interviewer' or 'host', I think it would flow better to just lay things out, rather than asking for permission from your participants first. Instead of "can you guys answer some questions from the community?", work that out beforehand, then just go right into the content rather than establishing whether you're going to ask them during the 'cast. :-)
Good work!
First off, I am not Nolight, Noknife is an indie rock band from San Diego that I am quite fond of, that guy is running some sort of MTGO business, I make my money in the stock market, day trading, MTGO is a game I play to pass the time during the day, not my source of income. I see people attempt to hoard stuff constantly, I see institutions (groups of people) try to fix prices of a commodity on a daily basis. Sometimes it works, but it is only in the short term. Ultimately you may not be able to find a certain card at a certain price for a short amount of time, but there is no long term benefit to hoarding something, unless you simply want to make the item unavailable to the general public for some unknown reason, and at great personal expense to yourself, which doesn't make much sense economically. Its a short term problem. Yes, the price of natural order is clearly manipulated, according to your chart. You know how you fight that? Don't buy it at that price. Eventually the price has to come down to its market value, or the person holds onto the natural orders that nobody is buying at their own personal expense. This is how every market in the world works. Long term you pay fair market value for everything. If you choose to overpay for something, you do so willingly. If you would like to explain to me anything else about market economics, I'm all ears.
Noknife
Yet another problem for MTGO that would be solved by having more players.
MTGO needs a marketing campaign.
"I liked your article a lot , hope you keep writing about pauper."
I can see the price of Force of Will going up to at least to 120 a single in the near future if WoTC don't do anything, and also the same is going to happen ,maybe not that bad, to other cards like Phyrexian Dreadnouhgt, Grindstone, Lion's Eye Diamond and Daze (until it get reprinted on Nemesis). The Phyrexian Dreadnouhgt isn't as important as FoW is to the classic formats but it has been rising in price since 2 months ago from 18 to 32 for a single and i haven't seen any single copy of it in stock on MTGOTRADERS for a while. Assuming it has been played more but in the last 7 Classic Events it has appeared only in four different players decks (Prolepsis9-3 Times, gimlicolby-3, tallandskinnyman-1 and mrgando-1).