Right, that's why I don't know what to do with this data. I guessed Disfigure as #1 since Hideous End is #2, but if something other than Hideous End or Disfigure is #1, then what exactly am I supposed to do with this data? Because it's wrong to pick another black common over H.E. or Disfigure.
I realize, like Shaterri says, that the data reflects "games won when cast" and isn't intended to convert directly into a pick order, but then what exactly should we be doing with it?
It all works online, MTGO assumes you are using your special ability for your first land drop if you put a land into play with oracle in play. Build a deck, and try it out. I just put a land into play, bolted it, and then played another.
Well, no. You can be more than 90% sure that sealed deck games in which Hideous End is cast are more likely to be won than sealed deck games in which Disfigure is cast -- and the distinction between the two statements, of course, is where (as others have been saying) this methodology comes up short.
Any chance of seeing the Momir Avatar in the price charts for the next couple of weeks?
It would be really interesting to see how
1) the announcements
2) the community cup
3) giving out of free avatars (thanks for winning the community cup btw, I've been having great fun with Momir Basic for the first time thanks to you guys!)
4) holding the big Momir tourney
5) post Momir tourney
6) running Momir 2-mans
If you intend to use a lot of screen shots, you'll want to compose somewhere else and copy the html over to pure. Managing images within the pure editor is untenable for more than a couple.
I compose in Windows Live Writer, publish to a private blog to get the images auto-uploaded, then copy and paste the html into the pure editor.
If I remember correctly the original edh decks were multicolor only. I could be mistake but I remember seeing a few that were even if the rules weren't.
His "hint" regarding Soul Stair Expedition, by my read, is that it performed above what one might expect, and well above the crappy Ior Ruin and Sunspring expeditions.
If this system rates Soul Stair Expedition as the "surprise" #1 black common in Zendikar limited, all that will tell me is that the system and its data are fatally flawed for generating any kind of pick/desirability order.
But people had played tribal casually (even in MTG:Pants) for years before Onslaught block came around. I don't recall ever seeing a multicolor only format played casually (I've seen the opposite with 5-color star).
We are talking about the landfall trigger on the khalni heart expedition. With Oracle in play, when you play Valakut #1 a trigger will go on the stack asking to add a counter on the enchantment.
So with the trigger on the stack, you cannot play Valakut #2. Because you can only play lands at sorcery speed. Therefore with the trigger on the stack, you pass priority and your opponent can terminate the oracle. Keeping Valakut #2 sitting in your hand.
305.2. A player may normally play only one land during his or her turn; however, continuous effects
may increase this number. If any such effects exist, the player announces which effect, or this rule,
applies to each land play as it happens.
that i am slightly shocked by though i could understand hideous end and disfigure being top 5 maybe surrakar marauder, and from all the hints Soul Stair Expedition so there is at least4 of blacks top commons. Now if some of the really really bad vampires got in there like Bloodseeker, and Guul Draz and lacerator(decent not great) then even after that Giant Scorpion should at least be in top 10 black commons. If not Im guessing people just dont play it. But its an insane card and I have pro statements to back it up.
No, you have it wrong. He played valakut #1, which triggers no trigger, as valakut's ability triggers on a mountain coming into play. Then, without passing priority, he plays another. Then he can use both expeditions, and only then does a trigger go on the stack.
I have a question as I have been trying to put together my own walkthrough on mtgo, but I was wondering how you got your card pictures that size, and how you got each one to show up. I am not sure if it is a program or if u went through and added pic= to all the cards. I love your walkthroughs, I want to make mine as good as yours.
I echo both ArchGenius's appreciation for the effort that has gone into this series, and his concern over the usefulness/accuracy of the data for impacting the way I approach a draft or sealed event given the acknowledged gaps and problems with the methodology.
"On a different note entirely, I am curious whether there is a statistical bias for higher mana spells. Some may question whether Sky Ruin Drake is so high on this list because the very fact that a player cast it indicates that they had a relatively smooth mana draw and survived at least until the fifth turn."
This relates to my main issue...the fact that the system has no way of measuring the negative impact of a card stuck in hand--either from mana issues or context issues--during a loss that might have been a win had that stuck card been something castable. Perhaps the useful aspect of this kind of data is, "Sky Ruin Drake is better than you think," which is fine (that's what I've been saying all along anyway), but knowing that players won 67% of the time they were able to get down their Sky Ruin Drake doesn't compel me to take it higher in a draft or consider it more of a reason to play blue in sealed than any of blue's other common two-power flyers.
That being said, I expect Disfigure to be the #1 black common. Its cost and ability to hit black creatures is amazing, and supports aggro black strategies extremely well. The ability to kill an opposing threat with Disfigure while having the mana left to cast your own threat on turns 2-4 creates devastating tempo advantages that Hideous End at three times the cost just can't pull off.
Right, that's why I don't know what to do with this data. I guessed Disfigure as #1 since Hideous End is #2, but if something other than Hideous End or Disfigure is #1, then what exactly am I supposed to do with this data? Because it's wrong to pick another black common over H.E. or Disfigure.
I realize, like Shaterri says, that the data reflects "games won when cast" and isn't intended to convert directly into a pick order, but then what exactly should we be doing with it?
It all works online, MTGO assumes you are using your special ability for your first land drop if you put a land into play with oracle in play. Build a deck, and try it out. I just put a land into play, bolted it, and then played another.
Well, no. You can be more than 90% sure that sealed deck games in which Hideous End is cast are more likely to be won than sealed deck games in which Disfigure is cast -- and the distinction between the two statements, of course, is where (as others have been saying) this methodology comes up short.
well that sucks, but he did mention he was playing paper, so no terminate can deprive him of his double valakut!
I just tested this and found that we can be more than 90% sure that Hideous End is better than Disfigure.
It is not Soul Stair Expedition.
well thats great if for ssome reason you play paper...but rule 305.2 simply does not exist online. Try it out
Hi Hammy
Any chance of seeing the Momir Avatar in the price charts for the next couple of weeks?
It would be really interesting to see how
1) the announcements
2) the community cup
3) giving out of free avatars (thanks for winning the community cup btw, I've been having great fun with Momir Basic for the first time thanks to you guys!)
4) holding the big Momir tourney
5) post Momir tourney
6) running Momir 2-mans
all has an affect on the price.
Cheers!
If you intend to use a lot of screen shots, you'll want to compose somewhere else and copy the html over to pure. Managing images within the pure editor is untenable for more than a couple.
I compose in Windows Live Writer, publish to a private blog to get the images auto-uploaded, then copy and paste the html into the pure editor.
Selects a default pick until time runs out and then selects that card.
<img src="http://www.wizards.com/global/images/magic/ZEN/surrakar_marauder.jpg" style="border: 4px solid black; margin: 5px; width: 100px; height: 143px;" alt="">
This is the html for the draft pics. As you can see the links go to Wizards site.
There is a program used to create the draft walkthroughs,
as it says above.
"This draft converter created by Benjamin Peebles-Mundy. Visit the draft converter today!"
if you look there you will find it links to the page.
I don't draft much on MTGO these days (more of a constructed player now), so I'm wondering what control-clicking does?
If I remember correctly the original edh decks were multicolor only. I could be mistake but I remember seeing a few that were even if the rules weren't.
Good luck
Starting January 6th, my social life ends..
So if any of my friends are reading this. I've traded you guys against a shot vs 25K $
His "hint" regarding Soul Stair Expedition, by my read, is that it performed above what one might expect, and well above the crappy Ior Ruin and Sunspring expeditions.
If this system rates Soul Stair Expedition as the "surprise" #1 black common in Zendikar limited, all that will tell me is that the system and its data are fatally flawed for generating any kind of pick/desirability order.
But people had played tribal casually (even in MTG:Pants) for years before Onslaught block came around. I don't recall ever seeing a multicolor only format played casually (I've seen the opposite with 5-color star).
Hmmm, multicolor sounds almost like MULTIBALL!
We're not talking about Valakut triggers.
We are talking about the landfall trigger on the khalni heart expedition. With Oracle in play, when you play Valakut #1 a trigger will go on the stack asking to add a counter on the enchantment.
So with the trigger on the stack, you cannot play Valakut #2. Because you can only play lands at sorcery speed. Therefore with the trigger on the stack, you pass priority and your opponent can terminate the oracle. Keeping Valakut #2 sitting in your hand.
305.2. A player may normally play only one land during his or her turn; however, continuous effects
may increase this number. If any such effects exist, the player announces which effect, or this rule,
applies to each land play as it happens.
that i am slightly shocked by though i could understand hideous end and disfigure being top 5 maybe surrakar marauder, and from all the hints Soul Stair Expedition so there is at least4 of blacks top commons. Now if some of the really really bad vampires got in there like Bloodseeker, and Guul Draz and lacerator(decent not great) then even after that Giant Scorpion should at least be in top 10 black commons. If not Im guessing people just dont play it. But its an insane card and I have pro statements to back it up.
I am 99% sure he's hinting at Soul Stair Expedition.
No, you have it wrong. He played valakut #1, which triggers no trigger, as valakut's ability triggers on a mountain coming into play. Then, without passing priority, he plays another. Then he can use both expeditions, and only then does a trigger go on the stack.
Hey
I have a question as I have been trying to put together my own walkthrough on mtgo, but I was wondering how you got your card pictures that size, and how you got each one to show up. I am not sure if it is a program or if u went through and added pic= to all the cards. I love your walkthroughs, I want to make mine as good as yours.
Thanks
I echo both ArchGenius's appreciation for the effort that has gone into this series, and his concern over the usefulness/accuracy of the data for impacting the way I approach a draft or sealed event given the acknowledged gaps and problems with the methodology.
"On a different note entirely, I am curious whether there is a statistical bias for higher mana spells. Some may question whether Sky Ruin Drake is so high on this list because the very fact that a player cast it indicates that they had a relatively smooth mana draw and survived at least until the fifth turn."
This relates to my main issue...the fact that the system has no way of measuring the negative impact of a card stuck in hand--either from mana issues or context issues--during a loss that might have been a win had that stuck card been something castable. Perhaps the useful aspect of this kind of data is, "Sky Ruin Drake is better than you think," which is fine (that's what I've been saying all along anyway), but knowing that players won 67% of the time they were able to get down their Sky Ruin Drake doesn't compel me to take it higher in a draft or consider it more of a reason to play blue in sealed than any of blue's other common two-power flyers.
That being said, I expect Disfigure to be the #1 black common. Its cost and ability to hit black creatures is amazing, and supports aggro black strategies extremely well. The ability to kill an opposing threat with Disfigure while having the mana left to cast your own threat on turns 2-4 creates devastating tempo advantages that Hideous End at three times the cost just can't pull off.
Yeah, I was very excited to see those prizes. Huge incentive to get in on MTGO