First off, love the LR podcast and these articles...Quick question about the play here. Why not block the blood seeker, throw up a regen shield and torch the minotaur? You take no damage and can trade one of your 2 cliff threaders for the blood seeker if it attacks again with a double block regenerating the boa again? Am I missing something? Thanks again for the fantastic content, Luke
I don't think it will be that bad. With three sets, you can often force a strategy that isn't very good in the first set, but will pay off big in the second set or third set. In Time Spiral I would often force Green/White in Time Spiral Block, Shaman, Rogues, or Warriors in Lorwyn, White/Black or White/Red in Shadowmoor.
In Alara block the theme is Shards, Domain, Shards/2 color combinations. All of these themes are very similar and therefore it's hard to send good signals and cut off certain strategies. Therefore I don't see a whole lot of difference between the combined block packs and individual set packs. The print runs will be different, but I don't think the overall drafting strategies will be that different.
did you really just tell us all to lobby wizards on you're behalf, so you could collect draft data at pro tour whatever?
maybe you shuld ask them yourself. or maybe you already did and they told you no. if so aren't you just asking us to annoy them about it? seems kinda presumptuous, don't ya think?
Yeah I had the same issue with not getting my avatar at first. I had to open a ticket to get them to add it to my account. So I spent my first day just pestering Flipp while he got to play with his avatar.
What i dont get with these packs is if they will mash all 3 sets into one pack? If thats the case youre making it a totally diffrent draft enviroment. Sounds way to random.
In my tree folk deck that also uses several of the same trees I have found that harrow really does make your Battlewand Oak as a blocker something to always keep my opponent focused on. With the instant speed of it its a nice +4/+4 bonus to him. If you had happened to actually drop a land that same turn he just keeps getting bigger. I would think at least one or two harrows would be a nice addition to the deck.
Honestly I just don't see this being useful, the numbers are more misleading than anything. Thanks for the summaries but I think traditional pick orders are far more useful.
Well magosi is there for a couple of situations. Even against aggro decks I use it sometimes just to draw out some more creatures for wrath of god.
Against the control decks especially mirror is great because games tend to go long and you can use it in a stalled board situation to gain more advantage later. I've also used to deck out opponents playing the mirror UW after all the attriction War. Burst lightning has been proving better because of Hedron Crab. People are playing it more and more in the UW sideboards against valakut and mirror and burst lighting + journey deals with it.
Golgari Rot-Farm is a great play on turn 2. But on turn 3, you need to drop a Swamp or a Forest to play out your 3- or 4-cost creature. Once you play a Bull Elephant and refill your hand with Forests, Golgari Rot-Farm becomes a less than optimal option for a couple of turns.
Overall, the Rot-Farm performed wonderfully in about a third of my games when I had two in an early version of the deck, didn't impact a third of those games, and caused me grief in the last third. There just asn't enough upside.
if hideous end is number two...i really really want to say vampire nighthawk is number 1...but since its commons only im going to sa surrakar marauder or giant scorpion
Thanks for the great read. This is your first article I've read, but I have been following the podcast since episode #1. I found the play by play very helpful, almost like reading chess puzzles and was surprised that there were a lot of good plays I did not see at first.
I read a lot of magic articles and I wanted to thank you because unlike most, I feel this is actually improving my game.
Overall this is very useful information, but if your utilizing the data for draft I think you have to know the differences of the formats. I'd probably avoid a hatchling in my sealed deck if I could because it won't even trade with anything, but it does buy you time against some of the best archtypes in draft that your likely to run into. Like ArchGenius pointed out, we don't analyze these cards in a vacuum when we pick them over another card. Experience with the format teaches us we need answers to devastating two drops in the format, and cards like hatchling can effectively earn you 8+ life. That's not really a bad deal for one blue mana in ZZZ draft.
I'd also likely pick a tern or raptor over the drake early on in the draft, as it's more important to be geared towards the early game in ZZZ. Cards like raptor also get a lot better when you pick up some other decent allies, so synergy is a significant factor when evaluating cards in draft.
I have to disagree with ArchGenius on one thing, I don't feel the analysis is trivial. I see this as a tool for limited players, but certaintly not a bible. This data is no replacement for hard earned experience, but I think it is a reasonable supplement to it and a reasonable experiment. I question how useful it is for drafters, but the information is excellent for sealed play. Drafting experience doesn't equate to sealed experience, and I draft far more often than I play sealed so I find this info very useful. I've given a lot of thought to playing in the selaed queues because of the better payout but normally stick with draft because its what I know, but you've sparked my interest enough to probably send me in that direction more often than I normally would so I can honestly say your article has had an impact for me. I look forward to seeing the rest of your data.
You know, as I reread my article post-publication, besides the multiple "How did I miss that typo?!" moments, this pick was something that leapt out at me as deserving more mention because of the larvae option.
I think you are probably right, although it's ultimately a fairly minor pick because I shouldn't really want to run either in the deck that was coming together at that point.
I had dismissed the larvae because of my splash intents for green, and while I don't think I would have run it in the end, it was probably more likely to be a factor than the quest at that point in the draft. I could have had an amazing run on green (hey, it could happen!) in pack three that made it more playable.
Thanks for yet another great article. I really enjoy these walkthroughs, and I've learned a lot from them, probably more than any other draft walkthrough articles on the web.
In Pack 2, Pick 7 I really prefer the Timbermaw Larva over the Quest for the Gemblades. I've never been happy with the Quest in any deck I've ever had it in. It can be great against bad players, but against good players it is generally pretty mediocre, and quite often it is just a dead card. The Larva is always going to be at least OK, will certainly make your maindeck (I play it over the Kor Cartographer in this build), and helps ensure that you have enough playable creatures. Even as a 3/3 for 4 (which is what it will be in this deck) it will be pretty solid.
While I applaud your efforts, I think you're spending a lot of time and energy trying to answer a very simple question that is ultimately not that useful in draft or sealed deck situations.
Most of your analysis comes down to "Is this card any good?" However in draft and sealed decks, we are never analyzing cards in a vaccuum.
In sealed we have to look at all the cards in our pool and make decisions like whether or not playing black is worth it for a bomb like Ob Nixilis when the rest of the black cards are underwhelming. We have to look at whether or not the cards in our deck make us want to play a specific below average card. Example: I had a sealed deck with 2 Trusty Machetes and a bunch of evasion creatures. I ended up playing a Caravan Hurda over a Pillarfield Ox in that deck because I felt the Hurda worked better in that deck even if it is a worse card in general.
In draft, you need to be keenly aware of what cards you already drafted and draft what you need over the best card in the draft. Example: If I have already picked 2 Hideous Ends, do I really want to take a third one over a decent black creature? Or, do I really need another 3 drop when most of the cards I've take so far cost 3 mana. When do I start taking worse cards that fit my mana curve over better cards that will make my deck clunky?
These are the interesting questions when it comes to limited deck-building analysis. If you want to look at the power level of individual cards, look at constructed.
In constructed you have the option to play whatever cards you want. In constructed questions like the following are actually non-trivial. "Is Blade of the Bloodchief any good in a Zendikar Block Vampire deck?" "Is Harrow worth it in a G/U Lotus Cobra deck?
By it's very nature, constructed tournaments are much more concerned about which cards help you win games and which cards don't because you can constantly tweak your decks and make small changes. In limited tournaments, you entire deck changes each time. Your analysis technique would be great for constructed while it is kind of trivial for limited.
Unfortunately I can't play online right now, but against my friends' ZEN decks it seems to do alright. Black in general is really strong, but I win some matches (usually surprisingly) with the ally deck. I have been considering adding some negates/cancels for some of the worst allies, but against other decks it's more important to keep laying down guys than to stop 1 spell.
I think Azorious Guildmage is clearly the best creature in the format, assuming you find blue mana. If you want a Dark Confidant on 2cc and in exchange I get Azorious Guildmage, I'll make that trade every time. Hitting the guildmage gives your opponent exactly one more activation to keep from losing the game, it's a two-mana "I win" creature.
A few things that I had a big reaction to. You don't know which cards are in people's hands that they didnt play by the end of the game? (That's a huge hole in the methodology) A cancel that sits in someones hand but never finds a spell it wants to counter yet altered the way the holder played, usually by delaying actions and reducing their tempo position is pretty horrible, worse than not having it in those cases. So yea the whole issue makes me very skeptical about the meaningfulness of these numbers(Not to mention the whole smooth land draw curve thing, maybe it indicates that drawing alot of land is alot better than drawing just 4 land or 3 but still being able to cast something every turn since your landfall triggers aren't going off.
hatchling is bad because theres alot of evasion and ways to negate his presence for a turn (shortcutter hookmaster adv gear (too big to block profitably) trusty machete, windborne charge, the ally aerialist and the white uncommon aerialist, creature enchants ect. and yeah as you said even when he is blocking he's not stoping scope triggers or the horde of 2/1's.
One thing that sealed tends to do is reveal the strong colors of teh format from randomly opened product, as we saw at one event 6/8 of the top 8 decks played black, does this mean that if you dont play black in draft you'll lose? No. Drafters adjust to what's better and take it more often leaving opporunities for people to prosper using less popular colors with the extra supply of them.
Yeah like I tell people paralyzing grasp is horrible, at one mana it woudn't be near contructed playable, in limited it would be solid at three mana it's a joke.
I wont believe cancel is any good in zen, its double blue and easily to spot being palmed, only good if youre already ahead and in that case if you just kept dropping threats youd probably stay ahead more often.
First off, love the LR podcast and these articles...Quick question about the play here. Why not block the blood seeker, throw up a regen shield and torch the minotaur? You take no damage and can trade one of your 2 cliff threaders for the blood seeker if it attacks again with a double block regenerating the boa again? Am I missing something? Thanks again for the fantastic content, Luke
I think they decided not to do it because there wouldn't be enough demand for it.
I don't think it will be that bad. With three sets, you can often force a strategy that isn't very good in the first set, but will pay off big in the second set or third set. In Time Spiral I would often force Green/White in Time Spiral Block, Shaman, Rogues, or Warriors in Lorwyn, White/Black or White/Red in Shadowmoor.
In Alara block the theme is Shards, Domain, Shards/2 color combinations. All of these themes are very similar and therefore it's hard to send good signals and cut off certain strategies. Therefore I don't see a whole lot of difference between the combined block packs and individual set packs. The print runs will be different, but I don't think the overall drafting strategies will be that different.
i'm pretty sure he was trying to give us clues that the top black card is soul stair expedition.
did you really just tell us all to lobby wizards on you're behalf, so you could collect draft data at pro tour whatever?
maybe you shuld ask them yourself. or maybe you already did and they told you no. if so aren't you just asking us to annoy them about it? seems kinda presumptuous, don't ya think?
Yeah I had the same issue with not getting my avatar at first. I had to open a ticket to get them to add it to my account. So I spent my first day just pestering Flipp while he got to play with his avatar.
What i dont get with these packs is if they will mash all 3 sets into one pack? If thats the case youre making it a totally diffrent draft enviroment. Sounds way to random.
In my tree folk deck that also uses several of the same trees I have found that harrow really does make your Battlewand Oak as a blocker something to always keep my opponent focused on. With the instant speed of it its a nice +4/+4 bonus to him. If you had happened to actually drop a land that same turn he just keeps getting bigger. I would think at least one or two harrows would be a nice addition to the deck.
Honestly I just don't see this being useful, the numbers are more misleading than anything. Thanks for the summaries but I think traditional pick orders are far more useful.
Yeah I actually stomped and howled until they gave me one.
Hey Hamtastic, anymore videos or screenshots to show?
Well magosi is there for a couple of situations. Even against aggro decks I use it sometimes just to draw out some more creatures for wrath of god.
Against the control decks especially mirror is great because games tend to go long and you can use it in a stalled board situation to gain more advantage later. I've also used to deck out opponents playing the mirror UW after all the attriction War. Burst lightning has been proving better because of Hedron Crab. People are playing it more and more in the UW sideboards against valakut and mirror and burst lighting + journey deals with it.
Golgari Rot-Farm is a great play on turn 2. But on turn 3, you need to drop a Swamp or a Forest to play out your 3- or 4-cost creature. Once you play a Bull Elephant and refill your hand with Forests, Golgari Rot-Farm becomes a less than optimal option for a couple of turns.
Overall, the Rot-Farm performed wonderfully in about a third of my games when I had two in an early version of the deck, didn't impact a third of those games, and caused me grief in the last third. There just asn't enough upside.
Guess your degree? Archaeology?
if hideous end is number two...i really really want to say vampire nighthawk is number 1...but since its commons only im going to sa surrakar marauder or giant scorpion
Thanks for the great read. This is your first article I've read, but I have been following the podcast since episode #1. I found the play by play very helpful, almost like reading chess puzzles and was surprised that there were a lot of good plays I did not see at first.
I read a lot of magic articles and I wanted to thank you because unlike most, I feel this is actually improving my game.
Overall this is very useful information, but if your utilizing the data for draft I think you have to know the differences of the formats. I'd probably avoid a hatchling in my sealed deck if I could because it won't even trade with anything, but it does buy you time against some of the best archtypes in draft that your likely to run into. Like ArchGenius pointed out, we don't analyze these cards in a vacuum when we pick them over another card. Experience with the format teaches us we need answers to devastating two drops in the format, and cards like hatchling can effectively earn you 8+ life. That's not really a bad deal for one blue mana in ZZZ draft.
I'd also likely pick a tern or raptor over the drake early on in the draft, as it's more important to be geared towards the early game in ZZZ. Cards like raptor also get a lot better when you pick up some other decent allies, so synergy is a significant factor when evaluating cards in draft.
I have to disagree with ArchGenius on one thing, I don't feel the analysis is trivial. I see this as a tool for limited players, but certaintly not a bible. This data is no replacement for hard earned experience, but I think it is a reasonable supplement to it and a reasonable experiment. I question how useful it is for drafters, but the information is excellent for sealed play. Drafting experience doesn't equate to sealed experience, and I draft far more often than I play sealed so I find this info very useful. I've given a lot of thought to playing in the selaed queues because of the better payout but normally stick with draft because its what I know, but you've sparked my interest enough to probably send me in that direction more often than I normally would so I can honestly say your article has had an impact for me. I look forward to seeing the rest of your data.
You know, as I reread my article post-publication, besides the multiple "How did I miss that typo?!" moments, this pick was something that leapt out at me as deserving more mention because of the larvae option.
I think you are probably right, although it's ultimately a fairly minor pick because I shouldn't really want to run either in the deck that was coming together at that point.
I had dismissed the larvae because of my splash intents for green, and while I don't think I would have run it in the end, it was probably more likely to be a factor than the quest at that point in the draft. I could have had an amazing run on green (hey, it could happen!) in pack three that made it more playable.
Why no Golgari Rot-Farm? Does it slow things down too much? Seems like it would have synergy with returning forests to your hand.
Thanks for yet another great article. I really enjoy these walkthroughs, and I've learned a lot from them, probably more than any other draft walkthrough articles on the web.
In Pack 2, Pick 7 I really prefer the Timbermaw Larva over the Quest for the Gemblades. I've never been happy with the Quest in any deck I've ever had it in. It can be great against bad players, but against good players it is generally pretty mediocre, and quite often it is just a dead card. The Larva is always going to be at least OK, will certainly make your maindeck (I play it over the Kor Cartographer in this build), and helps ensure that you have enough playable creatures. Even as a 3/3 for 4 (which is what it will be in this deck) it will be pretty solid.
Hope to see you at the Seattle PTQ.
While I applaud your efforts, I think you're spending a lot of time and energy trying to answer a very simple question that is ultimately not that useful in draft or sealed deck situations.
Most of your analysis comes down to "Is this card any good?" However in draft and sealed decks, we are never analyzing cards in a vaccuum.
In sealed we have to look at all the cards in our pool and make decisions like whether or not playing black is worth it for a bomb like Ob Nixilis when the rest of the black cards are underwhelming. We have to look at whether or not the cards in our deck make us want to play a specific below average card. Example: I had a sealed deck with 2 Trusty Machetes and a bunch of evasion creatures. I ended up playing a Caravan Hurda over a Pillarfield Ox in that deck because I felt the Hurda worked better in that deck even if it is a worse card in general.
In draft, you need to be keenly aware of what cards you already drafted and draft what you need over the best card in the draft. Example: If I have already picked 2 Hideous Ends, do I really want to take a third one over a decent black creature? Or, do I really need another 3 drop when most of the cards I've take so far cost 3 mana. When do I start taking worse cards that fit my mana curve over better cards that will make my deck clunky?
These are the interesting questions when it comes to limited deck-building analysis. If you want to look at the power level of individual cards, look at constructed.
In constructed you have the option to play whatever cards you want. In constructed questions like the following are actually non-trivial. "Is Blade of the Bloodchief any good in a Zendikar Block Vampire deck?" "Is Harrow worth it in a G/U Lotus Cobra deck?
By it's very nature, constructed tournaments are much more concerned about which cards help you win games and which cards don't because you can constantly tweak your decks and make small changes. In limited tournaments, you entire deck changes each time. Your analysis technique would be great for constructed while it is kind of trivial for limited.
I love the charts, keep up the good work.
Unfortunately I can't play online right now, but against my friends' ZEN decks it seems to do alright. Black in general is really strong, but I win some matches (usually surprisingly) with the ally deck. I have been considering adding some negates/cancels for some of the worst allies, but against other decks it's more important to keep laying down guys than to stop 1 spell.
I think Azorious Guildmage is clearly the best creature in the format, assuming you find blue mana. If you want a Dark Confidant on 2cc and in exchange I get Azorious Guildmage, I'll make that trade every time. Hitting the guildmage gives your opponent exactly one more activation to keep from losing the game, it's a two-mana "I win" creature.
Thanks for the article!
Another very cool article.
A few things that I had a big reaction to. You don't know which cards are in people's hands that they didnt play by the end of the game? (That's a huge hole in the methodology) A cancel that sits in someones hand but never finds a spell it wants to counter yet altered the way the holder played, usually by delaying actions and reducing their tempo position is pretty horrible, worse than not having it in those cases. So yea the whole issue makes me very skeptical about the meaningfulness of these numbers(Not to mention the whole smooth land draw curve thing, maybe it indicates that drawing alot of land is alot better than drawing just 4 land or 3 but still being able to cast something every turn since your landfall triggers aren't going off.
hatchling is bad because theres alot of evasion and ways to negate his presence for a turn (shortcutter hookmaster adv gear (too big to block profitably) trusty machete, windborne charge, the ally aerialist and the white uncommon aerialist, creature enchants ect. and yeah as you said even when he is blocking he's not stoping scope triggers or the horde of 2/1's.
One thing that sealed tends to do is reveal the strong colors of teh format from randomly opened product, as we saw at one event 6/8 of the top 8 decks played black, does this mean that if you dont play black in draft you'll lose? No. Drafters adjust to what's better and take it more often leaving opporunities for people to prosper using less popular colors with the extra supply of them.
Yeah like I tell people paralyzing grasp is horrible, at one mana it woudn't be near contructed playable, in limited it would be solid at three mana it's a joke.
I wont believe cancel is any good in zen, its double blue and easily to spot being palmed, only good if youre already ahead and in that case if you just kept dropping threats youd probably stay ahead more often.